Global Burden of Disease - Big Data in Global Health

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

Global Burden of DiseaseBig Data in Global Health

Peter Speyer

Director of Data Development

@peterspeyer / [email protected]

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

• Independent research center at the University of Washington

• Core funding by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and State of Washington

• 160 faculty, researchers and staff

• Providing independent, rigorous, and scientific measurement and evaluations- Health outcomes

- Performance of health systems, programs & interventions

- Maximizing resources

• “Our goal is to improve the health of the world’spopulations by providing the best information on population health”

The Global Burden of Disease Study

• A systematic scientific effort

to quantify the comparative magnitude of

health loss due to diseases, injuries and risk factors

• Concept created by Christopher Murray and Alan Lopez for a study by WHO and World Bank in 1991

• GBD 2010– 291 causes in 187 countries for 1990, 2005 and 2010

by age and sex

– Collaboration with 488 individuals from 300 organizationsin 50 countries

– Published in 2012 in The Lancet

3

4

Measuring burden of diseases and injuries

DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years)

Health

AgeDeath

Deaths

Averagelife

expectancy

YLLsYLLs (Years of Life Lost)

YLDs YLDs

YLDs (Years Lived with Disability)

Disability Weight

Measuring burden by risk factor

• Measure impact of risk factors on diseases and injuries

• Examples: diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, blood pressure

• Key for prevention

• Based on

– Risk exposure in the population

– Relative risk per unit of exposure

– Theoretical minimum exposure

5

GBD data inputs: it’s big data

6

• Surveys

• Censuses

• Vital registration

• Verbal autopsy

• Disease registries

• Mortuaries / burial sites

• Police records

Variety Volume Velocity

• Hospital / ambulatory / primary care records

• Claims data

• Surveillance systems

• Sensor data

• Administrative data

• Literature reviews

• Data updates

The Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx.org)

7

8

Data & Model Flow

Results: over 1 billion data points

• 4 key metrics: deaths, YLLs, YLDs, DALYs

• 187 countries

• 1990, 2005 and 2010

• 291 causes / 1160 specific outcomes

• 66 risk factors plus risk factor attribution by cause

• 20 age groups

• Male / female

9

10

11

12

13

Strengths of the GBD approach

• Synthesis of all available data

• Innovative, peer reviewed methods

• Consistent methods make results comparable

• Uncertainty bounds for all metrics

• Coverage of all causes preventsdouble-counting,e.g. mortality, anemia

• Fully imputed dataset

14

15

Uses of GBD

• Global agenda setting

• Benchmarking

• Performance tracking

• Priority setting

• Resource allocation

• Analysis for any population

• Market sizing

Outlook

• Annual updates

• Sub-national analyses

• Disease expenditures

• Forecasts

16

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

Global Burden of DiseaseBig Data in Global Health

Peter Speyer

Director of Data Development

@peterspeyer / [email protected]