GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT ON WINE GROWING REGIONS DISTRIBUTION IN SLOVENIA Andreja Sušnik* Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj** Blaž Kurnik* * Environmental.

GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT ON

WINE GROWING REGIONS DISTRIBUTION IN SLOVENIA

Andreja Sušnik Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj

Blaž Kurnik

Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana

Workshop on climatic analysis and mapping for agriculture14-17 June 2005 Bologna Italy

Talk Outline

bull Climate Change Issues

bull Winegrowing in Slovenia

bull Winkler indexbull GIS Techniquebull Resultsbull Conclusions

Starting points

bull The baseline climate in a region largely determines the varieties that can ripen and the general style (flavor and structure) of wine an area can produce

bull Grapevines are generally grown in narrow climatic zones for a specific varietyrsquos optimum quality putting them at a greater potential risk from climatic variations and change

bull Good wine cannot be made from bad grapes

Climate Change Potential Effects on Viticulture

1048707 Warmer and longer growing seasons 1048707 Altered phenological timing 1048707 Altered ripening profiles 1048707 Climatic thresholds 1048707 Altered disease and pest timing and severity 1048707 Altered water needs 1048707 CO2 issues (growth and quality) 1048707 Need for management adaptations

Maracchi 2003

ITALY

German study

Germany Austria (Stock 2003)

Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000

vines)

Primorje region

Posavje region

Podravjeregion

Method

bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004

bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice

bull GIS technique (54 stations)

bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc

Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software

bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University

bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)

bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations

bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used

Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained

Locations of meteorological stations

used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)

Posavje region

region

The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)

bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)

October 31

April 1avg 10) - (T IW

Winegrowing regions according to modified

Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia

bull Area I lt 1390 degC

bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC

Zone 1 lt 1150 degC

Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC

Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC

Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC

Zone 5 gt 1450deg C

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature

6 world winegrowing regions are marked

Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions

An increase in average growing season temperature

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

162

Posavje Podravje Primorje

Average growing season temperature (degC)

1961-1990

1975-2004

Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm

Zone IWm

Area

1961-1990 (ha)

Area

1975-2004(ha)

1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424

2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218

3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261

4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91

5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06

Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm

IWm

Area (ha)

1961-1990 Area (ha)

1975-2004

1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2

2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19

3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52

4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23

5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4

Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash

1990 and existing viticulture areas

existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)

Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia

1961-1990 1975-2004

existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)

The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions

bull average elevation shift

for 132 m from

1961-1990 to 1975-2004

bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up

to 700 m asl

zone1961-1990 (m)

1975-2004 (m)

h(m)

1 578 672 +96

2 238 398 +160

3 161 267 +106

4 57 168 +111

5 28

Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial

variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate

change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje

bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required

bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties

bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies