GEOPOLITICS, CRISES, AND CORPORATE STRATEGY Paul Bracken March 20, 2015 GNAM Week.

GEOPOLITICS, CRISES, AND CORPORATE STRATEGY

Paul BrackenMarch 20, 2015

GNAM Week

March 20, 2015

7

KEY STRATEGY MEASURES

• Market Share• Buyer Power• Growth• Efficiency & pricing• Deterrent to entry• Outsourcing

• What businesses should I be in?

• Where?• Capital Market Logics• Political risk• Cross cutting technology

(e.g. cyber security)• Learning and agility• Environmental scanning

system

Business Corporate

AREA CASE ISSUES

Political Risk Walmart de Mexico; Africa Oil & Gas

Host & home government risk, transparency

Technology Apple; Samsung; Lenovo, First mover to disrupt; or second mover; or fast second mover

Corruption Siemens balance compliance with competitive drive

Agility IBM; Walmart Local vs. global balance, design, & “taste”

CORPORATE STRATEGY ISSUES

ISSUE CASE

Political Risk Walmart de Mexico; Africa Oil & Gas

Own government risk, transparency

Technology Apple; Samsung; Lenovo, First mover to disrupt; or second mover; or fast second mover

Corruption Siemens balance compliance with competitive drive

Agility IBM; Walmart Local vs. global balance, design, & “taste”

CORPORATE STRATEGY ISSUES

• “Strategic” methodology is the overall methodological approach: scenarios, environmental scans, multiframing, etc.

• “Tactical” methodology = particular components of the study: macroeconomics, game theory, Porter 5 forces

Divide the study into two parts: strategic and tactical

POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTS

STRATEGIC

• Actors: Countries, Groups, IOs

• Changes in tax, regulation, acceptability of products,

POLITICAL

• International Politics (US-Russia, US-China, China-Japan, etc.)

• Domestic Politics (US, others)

THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES APPROACH

I. When will China pass US in GDP? With how much confidence?

• econometrics, macroeconomics

II. What does it mean?

• scenarios to work out possible implications

Two Different Ways to Forecast