• • • • • • • • • -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Primary CTG Secondary CTG Tertiary CTG Real GDP Growth Q/Q SAAR and Percentage Points Global Monthly April 2020
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-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1
Primary CTG
Secondary CTG
Tertiary CTG
Real GDP Growth
Q/Q SAAR and Percentage Points
Global Monthly April 2020
2
September 2019 April 2020
-100
-50
0
50
100
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
May-1
8
Jul-18
Sep-1
8
Nov-1
8
Jan-1
9
Mar-
19
May-1
9
Jul-19
Se
p-1
9
No
v-1
9
Ja
n-2
0
Mar-
20
Percent Sri Lanka VietnamIsrael Finland
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-35
-28
-21
-14
-7
0
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
S&P 500
EM MSCI
EM spread (RHS)
US high-yield (RHS)
Percent Percentage points
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
20
05
20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20
19
20
20
Percent
3
September 2019 April 2020
80
100
120
140
90
100
110
120
Jan-1
9
Ap
r-1
9
Jul-19
Oct-
19
Jan-2
0
Apr-
20
ECB
BoJ
Federal Reserve (RHS)
January 2019=100
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
20-J
an
3-F
eb
17
-Fe
b
2-M
ar
16-M
ar
30-M
ar
13-A
pr
27
-Ap
r
Basis points (0 = January 20, 2020)Brazil
Indonesia
Mexico
Russian Federation
Turkey
South Africa
Argentina, RHS
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2018 2019 2020
China Rest of world
Percent, y/y
4
September 2019 April 2020
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
201901 201907 202001
GDPRetail salesIndustrial production
Percent
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
8-M
ar
13
-Ma
r
18-M
ar
23-M
ar
28-M
ar
2-A
pr
7-A
pr
12-A
pr
17-A
pr
22-A
pr
27-A
pr
Percent deviation from baseline
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57Days
New infections, 7 day average
ItalySpainEuro Area (others)
5
September 2019 April 2020
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007
2008
20
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
20
14
2015
2016
20
17
2018
2019
2020
Difference
0
20
40
60
80
100
1-J
an
20-J
an
9-F
eb
29-F
eb
20
-Ma
r
9-A
pr
29-A
pr
Commodity exporters
Commodity importers
Index
35
40
45
50
55
Ja
n-1
9
Mar-
19
May-1
9
Ju
l-1
9
Se
p-1
9
No
v-1
9
Jan-2
0
Mar-
20
Index
Commodity exporters
Commodity importers
6
September 2019 April 2020
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
01-J
an
11
-Ja
n
21
-Ja
n
31
-Ja
n
10
-Fe
b
20
-Fe
b
01
-Ma
r
11-M
ar
21
-Ma
r
31
-Ma
r
10
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
US$/bbl
Human-to human
transmission
confirmed
OPEC+ fail to
agree cuts
OPEC+ agrees
to new cuts
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
NYC subwayridership
China passengerjourneys
Percent
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
Oil
Coal
Natu
ral ru
bbe
r
Alu
min
um
Base
meta
ls
Tin
Corn
Soyb
ean
Go
ld
Percent
7
September 2019 April 2020
20
40
60
80
100
120
t t+10 t+20 t+30 t+40 t+50 t+60 t+70
9/11 GFC C-19
Index, 100 = t
-10
-5
0
5
10
Be
fore
During
Befo
re
During
Befo
re
During
Oil Metals Agriculture
Range Average 2020Percent
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Oil Metals Agriculture
1974-75 1980-82
1990-91 2008-09
Percent
8
September 2019 April 2020
(Percent change, y/y)
(Percent change y/y)
Recent releases: March 31, 2020 - April 30, 2020 Upcoming releases: May 1, 2020 - May 31, 2020
Country Date Indicator Period Actual Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous
United Kingdom 3/31/20 GDP Q4 1.1% 1.3% South Korea 5/3/20 CPI APR 1.0%
Indonesia 4/1/20 CPI MAR 3.0% 3.0% Turkey 5/4/20 CPI APR 11.9%
South Korea 4/1/20 CPI MAR 1.0% 1.1% Indonesia 5/6/20 GDP Q1 5.0%
Turkey 4/3/20 CPI MAR 11.9% 12.4% Brazil 5/8/20 CPI APR 3.3%
Brazil 4/9/20 CPI MAR 3.3% 4.0% China 5/11/20 CPI APR 4.4%
China 4/9/20 CPI MAR 4.4% 5.2% United Kingdom 5/12/20 GDP Q1 1.1%
United States 4/10/20 CPI MAR 1.5% 2.3% United States 5/12/20 CPI APR 1.5%
Turkey 4/13/20 IP FEB 10.5% 7.6% Euro Area 5/13/20 IP MAR -1.6%
France 4/15/20 CPI MAR 0.7% 1.5% Malaysia 5/13/20 GDP Q1 3.6%
Spain 4/15/20 CPI MAR 0.0% 0.7% France 5/15/20 CPI APR 0.7%
United States 4/15/20 IP MAR -5.5% 0.0% Germany 5/15/20 GDP Q1 0.5%
China 4/16/20 GDP Q1 -6.8% 6.0% Japan 5/17/20 GDP Q1 -0.7%
Germany 4/16/20 CPI MAR 1.3% 1.8% Thailand 5/18/20 GDP Q1 1.6%
Euro Area 4/17/20 CPI MAR 0.8% 1.2% Canada 5/20/20 CPI APR 0.8%
Japan 4/17/20 IP FEB -3.4% -2.5% Euro Area 5/20/20 CPI APR 0.8%
United States 4/29/20 GDP Q1 0.3% 2.3% United Kingdom 5/20/20 CPI APR 1.5%
Euro Area 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -3.3% 1.0% South Africa 5/27/20 CPI APR 4.1%
France 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -5.4% 0.9% South Korea 5/28/20 IP APR 7.1%
Italy 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -4.8% 0.1% Brazil 5/29/20 GDP Q1 1.7%
Mexico 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -1.6% -0.5% India 5/29/20 GDP Q1 4.7%
Spain 4/30/20 GDP Q1 -4.1% 1.8% Turkey 5/29/20 GDP Q1 6.0%
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