Future of Telecommunications as part of the ICT Industry

Future of Telecommunications as part of the ICT Industry

6th Australian Telecommunications Summit 2008

Peter HitchinerMember, ACS Telecommunications Board &

PrincipalInsight Telecommunications Consulting

28 August 2008

What is the Australian ICT Industry?

Employment in companies engaged in delivering ICT products & services: Consulting & Software Services 47% Telecommunications 26% Distribution of hardware &/or software products 23% Manufacture of hardware or software 4% Telecommunications represents 71% of profits!

Source: ACS ICT Industry Reporthttp://www.aiia.com.au/docs/ACS%20ICT%20Industry%20Report%202008.pdf

28 August 2008

Full time employed (Australia) December 200710,608,400

ICT Industry: delivery of ICT

Products and Services: ~400,000

ICT skilled in ICT industry~270,000

All ICT skilled ~ 514,0005.5% of employed

(including those in media, health, education)

ICT Employment

ICT Professionals ~280,000

28 August 2008

ICT Industry cumulative employment growth by Industry sector since June 2003

Distribution of Hardware and/or Software

products, 46.37%

Consulting and Software Services,

21.07%

Manufacturing of Hardware or Software,

16.47%

Telecommunications Services, -0.65%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09

Source: ACS ICT Industry Report 2008

28 August 2008

ICT Skills

CIIER National Estimates of Existing ICT Skills work-force, ANZSCO 4 digit structure, based upon: Detailed Victorian study, CIIER T250 ICT Industry Survey June 2007, DEWR and ABS data

Management and Organisation Analysts, 5,751

ICT Business and Systems Analysts, 4,313

ICT Support and Test Engineers, 4,487

ICT Support Technicians, 9,804

Computer Network Professionals, 4,487

ICT Trainers, 4,218

Other, 33,062

ICT Managers, 42,002

Other Information and Organisation Professionals,

86,944

Telecommunications Engineering Professionals,

23,064

ICT Sales Assistants, 16,873

ICT Sales Professionals, 21,092

Database and Systems Administrators, and ICT

Security Specialists, 19,511

Software and Applications Programmers, 18,691

Source: ACS ICT Industry Report 2008

Total: 261,239, excludes call centre, data entry general admin and management

28 August 2008

Convergence

Information media (data processing/content/services and storage)

Telecommunications media Broadcast media Companies no longer confined to a single

market Companies able to address carriage, content

and computing (including service formation)

28 August 2008

ICT Industry Supply Chain

Research, development, skills, education, training

Equ

ipm

ent

Ven

dors Software Platforms,

applicationsSystems

Integration

Service Providers

& Operators

Telecommunications carriage & Service

Use

rs/C

usto

mer

s

28 August 2008

Enablers of ICT convergence

Networks: broadband, wireless Data processing Access to content Multi function handheld device capabilities

(telephone, organiser, email, browser, location, multi media, multiple air interfaces, least cost service)

Interface design (MMI) RFID technologies Moore’s Law

28 August 2008

Some potential barriers to new services adoption

Potential intrusion, privacy & trust Low latency, refresh of service request must

appear virtually instantaneous which requires reliable quality telecommunications

Technical issues such as migration to IPv6, pervasive broadband

Commercial issues, impeding collaboration and cooperation (business culture issues)

Investment and risk

28 August 2008

Smart Internet Technology & Smart Services CRCs

How can service providers better deliver services online to customers?

How can new services be constructed and delivered (new channels)?

How do customers wish to interact/interface online with information/service providers?

What are the barriers to online service delivery? Man machine interfaces (Swarm, Table top, Keep in

touch, gestures, virtual reality:immersive systems) Information overload (right information, right person, right time)

http://www.smartinternet.com.au http://www.smartservicescrc.com.au

28 August 2008

Some examples (telecommunications/application convergence)

Unified communications Man machine interface Internet of Services Software as a Service (SaaS) Thin client computing Supply chain solutions

28 August 2008

Unified Communications

Example of addressing challenge of managing overload

Context awareness Identity (federated, network addresses) Synchronise email, instant messaging, fixed

line, mobile Privacy

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Context & Presence

Allows management of information overload Right information, right person, right time Predictive access to required information Trust & security Risk of information gathering, intrusive Behavioural advertising Services research

28 August 2008

A Presence interface: Swarm

Developed in the research program of Smart Internet

Provides for an individual to determine the presence it wants to convey among their community of contacts

Social and business contexts

28 August 2008

SWARM Demonstration

http://www.pixelshifter.net/client_login/swarm_2007/

28 August 2008

Table Top(Cruiser)

http://chai.it.usyd.edu.au

28 August 2008

Internet of Services

Internet as a platform for building services New services constructed based on use of

other information or services New channels for delivery Dependent on good reliable

telecommunications

28 August 2008

Software as a Service

Outsourcing model for software applications Some loss of control Dependent on good reliable

telecommunications

28 August 2008

Thin client computing

Dependence on good quality communications

Lower terminal costs Wider choice of mobile terminals (including

pocket/handheld) Improved physical security Eco friendly lower power use

28 August 2008

Supply chain solutions

RFID Tracking Inventory/asset management Dependent on good reliable

telecommunications

28 August 2008

New channels for service formation

m-Net http://www.mnetcorporation.com provides a channel eg for content to Telstra mobiles for Olympic coverage

Google street views Sensis whereis? wotif.com iPhone applications Etc Dependent on good reliable telecommunications

28 August 2008

So, what is the future of telecommunications in ICT industry?

Increasingly mutually inseparable Telecommunications is the central “C” in ICT Telecommunications should be the transparent

component of which users become increasingly unaware Pervasive telecommunications could ensure anywhere

anytime any service access NBN facilitates transformative change as an enabler of

new services Broadband and sustainability: Alcatel Lucent Broadband

Environment Challenge (Eckermann-TJA Prize) teleworking, teleprescence etc www.tsa.org.au

What are the implications for consolidation of the ICT industry and does this mean an even larger Telstra? On what basis is any form of separation consistent with convergence? I will leave that for you to think about!!

28 August 2008

Peter HitchinerPrincipalInsight Telecommunications Consulting

peter (at) insightteleconsult.com.au