Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels Michel VIAUD General Secretary PV industry needs.

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Michel VIAUDGeneral Secretary

PV industry needs

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

ConsumerOff-Grid Industrial

On-Grid

Economically viable

Dependant on market support

programs

Off-Grid Residential

Market Segments

Source: Strategies Unlimited

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Market projections

Different World PV Market Projections

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ins

tall

ed

MW

p p

er

ye

ar

Sarasin Studie 2004, CellProduction

EPIA Roadmap 10.2004

Strategies Unlimited 06.2004

Solarbuzz 2005

CLSA 07.2004

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

[%]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 marine

2 geothermal

3 biomass

4 hydro

5 wind

6 solar thermal

7 PV solar

electricity

100 % RES 29,808 TWh (≡ 80 % of total)

Total electricity consumption 36,346 TWh (from 15,578 TWh in 2001, IEA)

Source: Own estimates together with "advanced scenario" according to EREC

Contribution of PV Solar Electricity to Global Electricity Production in 2040

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Specific Production equipment investment [€/W]

1,5 ... 2 1 ... 1,5 0,7 ... 1

Investments per year [bio€]

0,5 ... 1

2 ... 6

10 ... 30

300 GW/Year@ 2030

0,1

1

10

100

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030Year

GW

/Year

30 % p.a.

25 % p.a.

10 Mrd€(20 Mrd€)

80 Mrd€(160 Mrd€)

250 Mrd€(500 Mrd€)

PV market increase and necessary investments in production equipment

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25

0

1

2

3

2020+

2010+

Module Efficiency [%]

2000+

a-Si-pin/pin

a-Si/µc-Si

II-VI

dye a-Si-pinII-VI

r

r

mc

mc

Cz

Cz

Mod

ule

Pric

e / W

p [re

l. un

its]

Technology evolution

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

PV Catapult Coordination Action (CA)

(EC project – DG Research – FP6)1. State-of-the Art and SWOT analysis

2. Crystallising the fruits of the European RTD + D efforts (Dialogue between R&D and Industry communities EUREC-EPIA)

3. Engaging the construction Industry in PV4. Socio-economic and financial issues

5. Opportunities, Perspectives, Potentials and Hurdles in the enlarged EU market

6. Emerging Economies and economies in developing countries

7. Cross fertilization

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

RTD Targets generic 20% Learning Rate

Module price < 2 €/Wp 2010 (ST)

< 0.9 €/Wp 2020 (MT)

< 0.5 €/Wp 2030 (LT)

1 materials cost < 2 efficiency > 3 production cost < (throughput , yield, equipment cost)

RTD targets

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

RTD Targets generic 20% Learning Rate (kWh)

System price < 3 €/Wp 2010 (ST) 5 kWp

< 1.5 €/Wp 2020 (MT)

< 1 €/Wp 2030 (LT)

1 Reliability, lifetime > 2 Labour, components cost < 3 Value > (applicability >, environmental impact <)

RTD targets

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

RTD Technology specific targets

Crystalline Silicon

• Solar Grade Silicon 20 €/kg ST

• WafersReduction of Silicon content 16 → 10 g/Wp ST

10 → 7 g/Wp MT

• Solar Cells Cell efficiency > + 4% abs 20-22% Mono 18-20% Multi ST

+ 6% abs 22-24% Mono 20-22% Multi MT

• Modules Life expectancy 35 years STInterconnect and encapsulation technology ST

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

RTD Technology specific targets

Thin Film Solar Modules

• Scaling up: Yield, throughput (area costs) • Module efficiency > 8 – 10% ST

(1 m2) 14% MT20%LT

• TCO cost <• Low-cost substrates (e.g flexible)• Modules

Life expectancy 25 years ST 35 years

MT

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

RTD Technology specific targets

Novel Cell Concepts• Dye Sensitised Cells Proof-of-Commercial Concept

ST

Polymer/Organic ,, MT

Life expectancy 5-10 years ST10-20 years

MT

Module efficiency > 4- 6% ST (> 0.1 m2) 10%

MT15% LT

Markets: consumer ST power LT

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

RTD Technology specific targets

Systems

• General StandardizationStorage cost-effective

environmental benign (eg H2)

• On-gridInverter (kW) Life expectancy 20 years ST

Price < 0.35 €/Wp ST

BIPV Module as standard building element ST

• Off-grid 0.20 €/kWh (battery, extracted) ST0.15 €/kWh

MT

• Concentrators Low-cost lens and tracking systemsMT

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

PV Catapult Coordination Action (CA)

(EC project – DG Research – FP6)1. State-of-the Art and SWOT analysis

2. Crystallising the fruits of the European RTD + D efforts (Dialogue between R&D and Industry communities)

3. Engaging the construction Industry in PV

4. Socio-economic and financial issues 5. Opportunities, Perspectives, Potentials and

Hurdles in the enlarged EU market6. Emerging Economies and economies in developing

countries

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

BIPV characteristics

• (Potentially) low BOS costs• (In principle) best use of existing

mounting and grid infrastructure• (Without subsidy influence) best

value of electricity is at the point of use

• Integration with Home Energy System

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Statement of the BIPV in the EU

• Lack of European strategy for BIPV development

• Lack of effective common research between Building and PV institutes

• Concern all the PV technologies• The largest potential for PV

applications

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Changes in Landscape

Need for European (BIPV) RTD Strategy

• EU PV Program

• European Coherency and Coordination with MS

• Maturing industry

• “Planning” projects

• Close collaboration between research – industry- construction sector

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

PV Catapult Coordination Action (CA)

(EC project – DG Research – FP6)1. State-of-the Art and SWOT analysis

2. Crystallising the fruits of the European RTD + D efforts (Dialogue between R&D and Industry communities EUREC-EPIA)

3. Engaging the construction Industry in PV4. Socio-economic and financial issues

5. Opportunities, Perspectives, Potentials and Hurdles in the enlarged EU market

6. Emerging Economies and economies in developing countries

7. Cross fertilization

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Recommendations

- Establish strategy for BIPV (Research infrastructures in R&D policy ?) between the Building (R&D and Industry) and the PV (R&D and Industry) communities

- Support manufacturers of building components

- Reinforce cooperation between architects, construction sector, PV developers, etc.

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Process of setting strategy

Industry Community

R&D Community

DiscussSet

Priorities

Berlin (R&D) Paris (R&D+BIPV) Brussels (R&D) Nice (BIPV)

Jan. 04 Jun. 04 Nov. 04 May 05

Provide first results

to the PV Platform

End 2005

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

EU PV Technology Platform

National Programmes Mirror Group

Steering Committee PV Secretariat

Policy&

InstrumentsGroup

Developing Countries Group

Information,Promotion,

Education & Market Deployment Group

BIPV

Science, Technology & Application

Group

ResearchInfrastructures ?

Future Needs for Research Infrastructures in Energy, 1 June 2005, Brussels

Thank you for your attention !