Frontier and emerging markets macro outlook Electric power to the people
Frontier and emerging markets macro outlookElectric power to the people
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
GDP outlook 3
Credit ratings 8
Frontier markets and the CIS/Saudi 9
Africa 10
Lending 12
Currency outlook 17
Emerging markets 17
Frontier markets 19
Africa 22
Macro conclusions 24
Electricity 25
Best snippet on electricity – from prehistoric fires to LED lights 28
Where is the world today in terms of kWh electricity consumption? 31
Countries that can’t industrialise yet – less than 300 kWh per capita 35
Countries that could industrialise – 300-500 kWh / capita 37
Countries that have industrialised – 1,000-1,500 kWh per capita 40
High electricity – 1500 kWh and above 41
Can high investment/GDP compensate for low electricity 43
Conclusion 45
Countries 48
Contents
Charles Robertson +44 (207) 005-7835 [email protected] Mobile +44 7747 118 756
@RenCapMan Daniel Salter +44 (207) 005-7824 [email protected] Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 [email protected] Oleg Kouzmin +7 (495) 258-7770 x 4506 [email protected] Vikram Lopez +44 (207) 005-7824 [email protected]
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
This is our primary macro outlook piece for the rest of 2018. We are no longer more
bullish than consensus on US/EU growth. We still think emerging markets (EM) and
frontier markets (FM) are less than half-way through a structural bull market. The
big shift in our thinking is on the oil exporters. MENA is looking much healthier,
from Egypt (we’re still bullish) to the UAE in EM. We think Russia and SA can beat
IMF GDP forecasts in 2018/2019. Nigeria is a big beneficiary in Africa.
But really, we want to talk about electricity. Last year, we argued countries needed 70-
80% adult literacy to grow fast. Most African and Frontier credits we follow have hit that
target. This year, we argue that countries must also have at least 300-500 kWh of
electricity per capita to grow sustainably at a fast rate. To put that into perspective, one
LCD TV requires about 240 kWh pa.
Most EM countries meet both targets, including for the first time this decade Egypt and
India. The situation is far more mixed in FM. Argentina and Vietnam do, of course, along
with the countries in Emerging Europe. Morocco and Tunisia have joined them recently
and so has Sri Lanka. We are bullish on them all.
Where it gets more complicated is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Until 2000, virtually none
met the literacy target, but that has changed dramatically for the better. Yet there are still
acute shortfalls on electricity supply in East Africa, and most of West Africa. We think
Zambia looks really good, as does Zimbabwe (it had both literacy and electricity in the
1980s and had industrialised, then blew it all with bad policies) and we think Ghana could
join them. But we need to see electricity supply at least double or treble per capita in East
Africa and the rest of West Africa before industrialisation is realistic. Our base case is that
countries that can’t industrialise (or shift from subsistence agriculture into higher valued-
added services) can’t grow much above 4-5% (1-2% in per capita terms).
There appears to be one exception to this though. If you invest 25% of GDP or more, then
Bangladesh, Ethiopia and others demonstrate sustainable high growth can still happen.
This is good news for Tanzania and perhaps Uganda but sends a clear message to
Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt and Pakistan about their urgent need for electricity and investment.
On a one-year horizon in EM, aside from Egypt and the Gulf, we like Greece (credit rating
upgrades, accelerating growth), and macro trends are reasonably positive in South Africa
(SA) and Russia. Central Europe has slowing GDP and little or no credit growth, but long
overdue credit rating upgrades. We think Turkey is messy, but we are still tempted by
one-year T-bills.
In FM, we are bullish on Nigeria (good growth, currency stability, falling interest rates) and
like growth picking up in Kenya. Bank lending is booming in South Asia and we like Sri
Lanka most. Pakistan still has to get July elections (and probably one more devaluation)
out of the way, before the next reform cycle can get underway. Francophone West Africa
is also seeing strong bank lending and high GDP growth, while deleveraging is still the
story in most of Anglophone Africa. The credit rating downgrade cycle in Africa has
basically finished; we think sovereign upgrades in 2019 is the story to start thinking about.
Vietnam still looks good to us. Kazakhstan should be good (higher oil, cheap currency),
but is held back by deleveraging and its proximity to geopolitically sensitive Russia.
Argentina has got more complicated (slowing growth, high inflation), but may benefit as
Latin America (LatAm) as a whole looks like one of the most interesting themes for EM in
the coming 12 months.
Overall, we think most of EM is in a good place, and EEMEA is fairly insensitive to US
and China wrestling about trade. Africa is on the rise again, but to really take off, needs
more investment and electricity in many of the countries we cover. Let’s make it happen.
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Unlike October 2017 when we felt IMF and Bloomberg consensus were understating the US
and Eurozone growth trajectory and the Fed funds hiking profile (then two-to-three hikes),
we have no big picture disagreement with current IMF and consensus growth expectations.
We do, however, draw your attention to the change in growth rates. This year, the IMF sees
MENA accelerating the most, followed by LatAm and the Caribbean, and then SSA.
Asian growth is expected to be flat at around 6.5%. The big negative in 2018 and 2019 is in
Emerging and Developing Europe; this is mainly a Turkey story.
Figure 1: We see no reason today to disagree that the US will grow by nearly 3% in 2018 and the Eurozone by around 2.5%
Source: IMF
The LatAm regional story is seen in the rapid growth acceleration forecast for Chile,
Brazil, Peru and Colombia within EM. In our EEMEA remit, only the UAE, Egypt and
Greece show significant acceleration in IMF numbers. Decelerating growth is most
pronounced in Turkey, along with Czechia and Poland, Taiwan and Malaysia – ie
industrial nations.
Heading into 2019, it is again LatAm (Mexico – presumably hostage to 1 July 2018
election risks, Colombia) and the UAE in the top-three spots, with Central Europe and
Pakistan weakening. Note, we think both Russia and SA may grow by around 2% in 2018
which would give them similar acceleration to Greece in 2018 and SA might be closer to
2.5% next year giving a similar acceleration to Colombia in 2019.
3.9
2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5
4.9
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6.5
4.3
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Regional GDP growth forecasts of the IMF, 2017-19, plus the change in those rates relative to the previous year
2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/2017 ppt 2019/2018
GDP outlook
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 2: LatAm and not Emerging Europe should be doing best in 2018
Source: IMF
In MSCI Frontier markets, we see the same theme of Emerging European deceleration,
while the fastest acceleration is expected in oil producers and Serbia. Kenya, Sri Lanka
and Tunisia also warrant positive attention. One surprise in the forecasts is the IMF
assumption of Nigeria growing faster than Argentina, but that is expected to reverse in
2019. Our SSA economist Yvonne Mhango is considerably more bullish than the IMF on
Nigeria – expecting 2.9% growth (a 2.1-ppt improvement). Morocco’s slowdown this year
is also expected to reverse next year (usually varying agricultural harvests explains GDP
variation here).
Figure 3: Oil exporters will see the best growth acceleration in 2018. Emerging Europe the biggest deceleration
Source: IMF
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
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1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
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EM GDP growth forecasts of the IMF, 2017-19, plus the change in those rates relative to the previous year
2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/17 ppt 2019/18
Biggest acceleration in 2018: Chile (1.9), UAE (1.4), Brazil (1.3), Peru (1.2), Egypt (1.0), Colombia (1.0), Greece (0.7)Biggest deceleration in 2018: Turkey (-2.6), Taiwan (-0.9), Czechia (-0.8), Malaysia (-0.6), Poland (-0.5)Biggest acceleration in 2019: UAE (1.1), Mexico (0.8), Colombia (0.5)Biggest deceleration in 2019: Pakistan (-0.9), Hungary (-0.8), Poland (-0.5), Czechia (-0.5)
7.47.0 7.0
6.6
5.55.1
4.0 4.0 3.9 3.93.5
3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.82.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0
1.5 1.3
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FM GDP growth forecasts of the IMF, 2017-19, plus the change in those rates relative to the previous year
2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/17 ppt 2019/18
Biggest growth acceleration in 2018 and 2019: Kuwait, Oman, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Kenya, TunisiaBiggest growth deceleration in 2018 and 2019: Romania, Slovenia, Estonia, Kazakhstan
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
In the Beyond Frontier countries, again oil exporters come out best, from Republic of
Congo (where GDP growth is expected to accelerate by a stunning 9.2 ppts between
2017 and 2019) to Azerbaijan. Africa looks good, as befits the third-fastest accelerating
region noted in the first graph above. While Armenia and Tajikistan are expected to halve
their growth rates after a stellar (and unexpected) 2017 growth performance, the 3-4%
growth rate for 2018 is expected to stabilise at the same level in 2019. Only Ethiopia is
expected to keep slowing for two consecutive years.
Figure 4: Oil exporters and African countries are forecast to see strong growth acceleration
Source: IMF
One additional graph on Africa which may be interesting is the dollar GDP estimates of
the IMF. We think if market exchange rates were used for Nigeria (as they are for SA),
then SA was the biggest economy in Africa in 2017 and is expected to be again in 2018.
But to be consistent, we should probably downgrade Angola to come in behind Morocco,
and Ethiopia (where the exchange rate is overvalued and determined by the authorities)
to come in behind Kenya (overvalued but not artificially so), and Zimbabwe to come in
behind Botswana and Senegal and maybe a few others too. We think official IMF
estimates putting Africa’s GDP at $2.2trn in 2017 and $2.4trn in 2018 are at least $100bn
too high due to Nigeria alone.
5.04.5
4.0 4.03.4 3.2 2.8
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2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/17 ppt 2019/18
Most of these African credits will see significant acceleration in GDP in 2018 and 2019. Ethiopia has the only big deceleration.
Clear winners are Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia. The big deceleration is coming in Armenia and Tajikistan.
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 5: How big was Africa's GDP in 2017? We may never know (orange countries are where we have good reason to question the exchange rate)
Source: IMF
Lastly, we like to keep our world view in perspective and win pub quizzes, by knowing the
top-20 economies by rank. We have added US state GDP data, and our estimate for
Africa’s GDP.
We would draw attention to three points. First, our summer piece in 2014 suggesting that
Russia would not catch up with California before 2029 remains on track (indeed, 2029
looks overly optimistic right now)1. Second, for as long as we can remember, Turkey has
been targeting 10th place globally, but it keeps being 17th. Third, Saudi Arabia still has a
smaller economy than the first home of the oil industry, Pennsylvania.
1 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Mash-up summer 2014 – GDP ranks, published on 13 August 2014 when Brent that day was $104/bl.
376
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50
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African countries ranked by 2017 GDP ($bn), IMF data except for Egypt and the second time Nigeria shows up (Renaissance Capital)
2017 2018
We might never agree on who was the biggest economy in 2017. The IMF says Nigeria but that's based on exchange rates that few transact at - we include alternative exchange rates which puts Nigeria behind SA in 2017 and 2018. If you take IMF data, Africa was $2.2trn in 2017 and $2.4trn in 2018.Based on our alternative NGN/$ measures, you get $2.1trn in 2017 and $2.3trn in 2018.Lastly, to be consistent, we should offer alternative exchanges rates for Angola, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and others too.Officially, Nigeria was biggest in 2017 and is forecast to be again in 2018.
7
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 6: The top-20 economies in the world in $bn (countries in red, continents in green, states in blue)
Source: IMF, BEA, Renaissance Capital estimates
Conclusion: The positive global growth trends are feeding into oil exporters, LatAm and
Africa. Emerging Europe is where growth prospects are deteriorating the most. Within
MSCI EEMEA, the IMF is most positive on the UAE and Greece, and we see some
upside surprise in SA and Russia. We think Nigeria will grow closer to 3% than the 2%
forecast by the IMF. Aside from oil exporters, Sri Lanka and Kenya are picking up too.
19,391
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GDP in $bn, 2017 country data from the IMF, 2016 US state data from theBEA and RenCap estimates for Africa
The top 20 countries by GDP in current dollars, in 2017, with US state GDP (2016 data) for the sake of comparison.
You can add 4-5% to the US figures to estimate 2017. So New York was probably around $1.56 trn in 2017, and bigger than Korea or Russia, and Illinois was probably bigger than the Netherlands.
After adjusting Nigeria's GDP using market exchange rates, we estimate Africa was bigger than the 8th largest economy, Brazil.
Turkey remains the 17th largest economy.
8
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Below we outline our credit ratings views for MSCI EEMEA credits, MSCI Frontier credits
and some other sovereign bond issuers in the CIS and Africa.
Fitch has Czechia on a positive outlook and may finally become the first agency to move
the rating up since 2011 (this is long overdue, in our view). It should be helped by FX
reserves exploding from $86bn in 2016 to $150bn (March 2018) which is roughly 60% of
GDP, since the removal of the EUR/CZK floor. Hungary has two positive outlooks and we
have improved our view to assume a rating upgrade this year. Poland too has a positive
outlook from S&P which surprised us slightly by downgrading in 2016, but we assume it
will only get a rating upgrade in 2019. We assume further upgrades for Greece, which
has a positive outlook from all three agencies.
We still think Egypt should be upgraded this year. Two agencies give it a positive outlook.
Russia is more complicated. It was upgraded by S&P this year already and both the other
two agencies have it on a positive outlook. Oil prices are well above finance ministry
expectations and a reform-minded government is likely to be appointed in May 2018. Set
against this are the recent imposition of additional US sanctions and a further
deterioration of relations with the EU. Given (we think low) potential sanctions risk on
Russian sovereign bonds, we expect the rating agencies will do nothing on a three-month
horizon and see the chance of another upgrade towards year-end.
Turkey is another wait-and-see, as early elections on 24 June mean the authorities may
be a little less unorthodox afterwards. Only S&P has it on a negative outlook. We suspect
no change, but recognise further downside risk.
Qatar is also complicated. Geopolitics could trigger a sharp change in relations with fellow
GCC states and we can’t call that. Debt metrics have worsened dramatically in recent
years, but in 2018 energy prices have rebounded to higher-than-expected levels. Neither
Moody’s in January or S&P in February cut the rating. With three agencies all having a
negative outlook, we think it is still reasonable to assume at least one downgrade comes
in July, but we have more doubts than six month ago.
We assume no change in the UAE, and no change in Pakistan but acknowledge some
downside risk despite the positive moves on the currency.
Figure 7: MSCI EM composite credit rating score, where B3/B- = 0, Baa3/BBB- = 6, etc
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Change in 2018 (already or by year-end)
Czech Republic 10.0 10.3 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Up Egypt 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Up Hungary 8.7 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Up Greece 11.0 11.0 11.0 8.7 5.3 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.3 -2.0 -1.7 -0.7 0.7 Up Pakistan 2.0 2.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Poland 8.7 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.0 9.0 9.0 Flat (+) Qatar 11.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 Down Russia 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 Up SA 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 Flat Turkey 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.0 4.7 4.3 Down UAE 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 Flat
Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
Credit ratings
9
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Frontier markets and the CIS/Saudi
The downgrades we assumed at the time of our last report for Bahrain, Oman and Kenya
have all been delivered, along with a cut for Tunisia (we saw a flat rating with downside
risk). Oman still has two negative outlooks, Bahrain just one and Kenya and Tunisia have
none. Both Moody’s and Fitch look relatively exposed with Oman as an investment grade
credit, two notches above S&P, and three to four notches above Bahrain.
An upgrade for Argentina has also been delivered in line with our expectations – we are
not sure if another (most likely by Fitch) will be delivered given twin deficits and slippage
on inflation.
We were slightly surprised by upgrades for Croatia and Lithuania (we saw flat with
upside risk for both). We did not expect either of the two upgrades Slovenia received.
Estonia may join them in the upgrade camp.
We are still waiting for a Vietnam upgrade. Both Moody’s and Fitch have it on a positive
outlook. Inflation has halved from the 5.2% peak in early 2017. The C/A is in surplus and
the primary budget deficit has fallen below 3% of GDP.
Two other economies we are bullish on over the medium-to-long term are Sri Lanka
(negative outlook from Moody’s) and Morocco (positive from Moody’s). Our bias is to
assume no change in Sri Lanka (but we accept there is downside risk) and we now
assume an upward shift in Morocco.
In Beyond Frontier MENA and the CIS, we no longer assume an upgrade from Moody’s
for Ukraine (we see it as an upside risk). Belarus has already been given the upgrades
we expected. Armenia might be a realistic upgrade candidate if political uncertainty is
resolved in coming weeks.
Figure 8: MSCI FM, CIS and Saudi Arabia composite credit rating score where B3/B- = 0, Baa3/BBB- = 6, etc
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Change in 2018 (already or by year-end)
Argentina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 -1.7 -3.7 -6.3 -6.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 Flat (+) Bahrain 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.7 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.3 Down Bangladesh 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Flat Croatia 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.7 Up Estonia 10.3 10.0 9.3 10.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Flat (+) Jordan 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 Flat (-) Kazakhstan 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Flat Kenya 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 Down Kuwait 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 Flat Lebanon 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Flat Lithuania 10.0 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.7 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3 Up Mauritius 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Flat Morocco 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Up Nigeria 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 Flat Oman 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 9.5 7.0 5.7 5.3 Down Romania 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Flat Serbia 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.7 3.7 Flat (+) Slovenia 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 11.7 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.3 9.3 Flat (+) Sri Lanka 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 Flat (-) Tunisia 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 Down Vietnam 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Up Beyond Frontier
Saudi Arabia 11.3 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.0 10.7 10.3 10.3 Flat Armenia 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Flat (+) Azerbaijan 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 Flat Belarus 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.7 Up Georgia 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 Flat Tajikistan 0.0 0.0 Flat Ukraine 2.7 1.7 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 -0.3 -2.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.7 -0.7 Flat (+)
Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
10
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Africa
In our 2018 outlook forecast for the continent, we expected only a downgrade in Kenya
(North Africa is covered above). That has been downgraded and Angola too (we had flat
with downside risk). With rising oil and FX reserves, we have removed the downside risk
for Nigeria’s rating. After the heavy downgrade cycle of 2014-2017, we think it is too early
to talk about SSA upgrades in 2018. But upgrades will be a possibility for a few in 2019,
which we will consider in our 4Q report.
Figure 9: African composite credit rating scores, where B3/B- = 0, Baa3/BBB- = 6, etc
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Change in 2018 (already or by year-end)
Ivory Coast 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 Flat (-) Ethiopia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Flat Ghana 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Flat Kenya 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 Down Nigeria 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 Flat Angola 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 Down Gabon 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.5 Flat (-) Mozambique 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.7 -5.0 -5.7 -5.7 Flat Senegal 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 Flat Zambia 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Rwanda 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 Flat Cameroon 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Flat Namibia 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 Flat (-) Republic of Congo 2.3 2.3 2.0 0.7 -1.7 -1.7 Flat Tanzania 2.0 Flat
Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
11
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 10: Rating and interest rate decision calendar
Moody's Standard and Poor's Fitch Interest rates
decisions Elections
27-Apr-18 Botswana Botswana Ukraine CBR
2-May-18 US Fed
4-May-18 Georgia Estonia, Rwanda
11-May-18 Slovenia Egypt, Oman Cameroon
18-May-18 Namibia 17 May Egypt
25-May-18 Burkina Faso, South Africa 21 May Nigeria, 22-24 May SARB
1-Jun-18 Hungary Bahrain, Bulgaria Bulgaria
8-Jun-18 Iraq, Kuwait Estonia, UAE Poland 7 Jun Turkey
13-Jun-18 US Fed
14-Jun-28 ECB
15-Jun-18 Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia, Uganda Armenia, Serbia CBR
22-Jun-18 24th June Turkey 26-Jul-18 ECB
29-Jun-18 28 Jun Egypt
6-Jul-18 Croatia, Romania 1 July, Mexico 13-Jul-18 Qatar Turkey 15 July, Pakistan 20-Jul-18 Estonia Czech Republic, Greece, Kuwait, Russia Belarus 17-19 July SARB, 22 Jul Nigeria,
27-Jul-18 Zambia Azerbaijan, Qatar Azerbaijan CBR, 24 Jul Turkey 29 July Zimbabwe 1-Aug-18 US Fed
3-Aug-18 DR Congo, Mozambique Czech Republic
10-Aug-18 Lithuania Angola, Rwanda Greece, Lithuania, Slovenia
17-Aug-18 Bahrain, Croatia, Egypt Hungary, Turkey Russia 16 Aug Egypt
24-Aug-18 Romania Iraq, Tajikistan, Zambia Georgia
31-Aug-18 Serbia Lebanon, Lithuania, Romania Hungary
7-Sep-18 Kazakhstan
13-Sep-18 ECB
14-Sep-18 Poland Nigeria, Ghana CBR, 13 Sep Turkey
21-Sep-18 Ethiopia, Greece, Uganda Congo (Rep), Croatia, Jordan, Kenya Mozambique 18-20th Sep SARB, 22 Sep Nigeria
26-Sep-18 US Fed
28-Sep-18 Bulgaria Kazakhstan 27 Sep Egypt
5-Oct-18 Belarus, Morocco, Saudi Arabia Estonia, Gabon
12-Oct-18 Czech Republic, Saudi
Arabia, South Africa Cameroon, Ethiopia, Poland Poland
19-Oct-18 Ukraine 20 Oct – Georgia, presidential
25-Oct-18 ECB, Turkey
26-Oct-18 Botswana Ukraine CBR
2-Nov-18 Slovenia Georgia Rwanda 6 November – US mid-terms
8-Nov-18 US Fed
9-Nov-18 Botswana Egypt, Oman Cameroon, Serbia
16-Nov-18 Oman Bulgaria, Romania 15 Nov Egypt
23-Nov-18 Hungary Burkina Faso, South Africa 20-22 Nov SARB, 22 Nov Nigeria
30-Nov-18 Bahrain, Bulgaria, UAE Armenia
7-Dec-18 Iraq, Namibia Estonia, Qatar Croatia
13-Dec-18 ECB, Turkey
14-Dec-18 Kuwait Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia Turkey CBR
19-Dec-18 US Fed
21-Dec-18
28-Dec-18 27 Dec Egypt
Source: S&P, Moody’s, Fitch, Bloomberg
12
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
We think the most interesting theme in many of our markets is too little debt. The IMF in
its latest Fiscal Monitor is warning about record levels of government debt, but not until to
page 30 of that report does it mention private sector debt. It then admits that 75% of all
growth in private sector debt globally since the global financial crisis (GFC) has been in
China, which implies a very different story is at play elsewhere. Indeed, what we find
striking is the deleveraging we see around so many markets.
Central Europe and Greece taken together have less private sector debt (as a percentage
of GDP) than a decade ago. This is despite super low interest rates in Central Europe,
booming wages and plunging unemployment. If ever Central Europe should be borrowing,
we think it is now, and yet it is not. This might be connected to ageing populations, or
more cautious banks and consumers after the GFC, or maybe we are just a little impatient
and the lending rise is yet to come.
Whatever the reason, the important implication is that overheating is less likely when it is
driven only by wages growth, rather than wages growth AND credit growth. We do expect
to see C/A deterioration in Central Europe and maybe inflation later in the cycle, but this
will be less dramatic without credit growth. Real estate and other asset prices will get less
of a lift, and central banks can afford to be slower to react with interest rate hikes.
Figure 11: The stock of lending to other sectors (mainly the private sector) as a % of GDP in EEMEA, China and India
Note: Some countries such as China, India and the UAE only provide data for the private sector, not "other sectors" (eg, local government loans as well)
Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
Egypt and SA have cut their private sector debt burdens by around 10 ppts of GDP. This
has been offset by a larger rise in public debt in Egypt. We assume bank lending will
begin picking up in Egypt in fiscal year 2018/19 as interest rates continue to fall and GDP
accelerates. SA might see some modest improvement in sluggish lending growth since
the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC leader and president.
The oil and gas exporters, Russia, UAE and Qatar have all seen a significant rise in the
debt stock, partly because the GDP denominator took a beating when energy prices fell
after 2014. We think Russia has scope to lift its figure because inflation has fallen to low
single digits. This is subject to loan-to-deposit limitations and official caution about
allowing a boom-bust private sector debt cycle.
54%50%
98%
73%
55% 52%
40%
87%
33%
81%
102%
49%
60%
39%
98%
37%
60%
104%
63%
77%70%
90%
44%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
CzechRepublic
Egypt Greece Hungary Poland Qatar Russia South Africa Turkey UAE China India
The stock of private sector debt is broadly flat or down in 6 out of 10 EEMEA markets
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Data labels for 2007 and 2017
Lending
13
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Within EEMEA, it is Turkey’s rise that is most concerning. While partly justified by falling
interest rates, the private sector debt rise has come at the expense of worse loan-to-
deposit ratios which might contribute to a Turkey crisis in the next year or two2. A
president demanding low interest rates and discouraging the central bank from operating
as quickly or transparently as it might like, feeds this risk.
We include China and India as there is an interesting contrast. Growth of 6-7% in the
former and 7-8% in the latter, with and without debt respectively, suggests the quality of
growth in India is better.
LatAm comes out well in the GDP growth acceleration charts, and a clearer rising private
sector theme as well, with the glaring exception of Brazil. The deep deleveraging helps explain
the record low Selic rate in Brazil. Argentina, Colombia and Mexico appear interesting.
Figure 12: The stock of lending to other sectors (mainly the private sector) as % of GDP, 2006-2018
Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
Within FM, the deleveraging theme compared with a decade ago is again obvious. We
think there is dramatic scope for more bank lending in both Romania and Kazakhstan, but
both were hit hard by the GFC and credit growth remains very far from the 20%+ growth
rates we think are justifiable. Vietnam’s echo of China is obvious – but still we see no
signs of overheating in inflation or C/A figures. The steady positive growth stories that
look sustainable are in South Asia (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan too).
2 In Reform Awakens in May 2015, we wrote that we expected Turkey to face a growth and/or banking crisis in 2016-2018, so far this has been staved off by government support for bank lending.
13%
49%
71%
33%
26%
20%16%
68%
83%
52%
36% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Opportunity in Argentina, deleveraging in Brazil
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Data labels for 2007 and 2017
14
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 13: Credit to other sectors as a % of GDP, 2006-2018; South Asia looks good, Kazakhstan/Romania are underleveraged, Vietnam is another China
Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
In Africa (ex-SA and ex-Egypt, both in the EEMEA graph above) we identify three key
themes:
1) Richer countries, Mauritius, Morocco and Tunisia, with a good inflation record
have higher levels of debt and these, we think, are sustainable.
2) Ivory Coast and Senegal are showing a rise that is usually consistent with good
asset market performance (eg real estate, or potentially equities). We attribute
this mainly to the CFA currency regime which delivers low inflation and low
interest rates, plus government efforts to boost investment. We have doubts
about the scope for either country to sustain 6-10% GDP growth over the
medium-to-long term given insufficient adult literacy or electricity. But there is
room for high cyclical growth for a few years supported by rising private sector
debt. We think Morocco’s Attijariwafa Bank recognises that opportunity, with its
number two market share in Senegal (19% market share) and Ivory Coast (11%
loan market share). Note Senegal’s ratio will fall with the forthcoming GDP
upward revision3.
3) There is an interesting lack of credit growth in Anglophone Africa. Where the IMF
estimates 2017 C/A deficits are already above 5% of GDP (Kenya, Tanzania,
Uganda), this may be a good thing. But in time, with lower interest rates, there is
scope for a significant bank lending rise to support growth. We would highlight
the lack of private sector lending, and even deleveraging, and see that as
something of an offset to the macro risk stemming from rising public sector debt
ratios in Ghana, Zambia and others.
3 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Senegal – another big rebasing to GDP, 2 November 2017
102%
81%
64%
76%
39% 38% 34%
53%
33% 26%
83%
67%
97%
62%
38% 41%
85%
97%
83%
95%
110%
79%
50% 48%28%
23%
55%
139%
58%76%
45%
29%
45% 49%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Bah
rain
Jord
an
Kuw
ait
Leba
non
Om
an
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Ban
glad
esh
Kaz
akhs
tan
Pak
ista
n
Sri
Lank
a
Vie
tnam
Cro
atia
Est
onia
Lith
uani
a
Rom
ania
Ser
bia
Slo
veni
a
Frontier private sector debt (ex-Africa)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Debt labels for 2007 and 2017
15
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 14: Lending to ‘other sectors’ (mainly the private sector), as % of GDP
Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
Below we show the latest credit growth data YoY and the figure six months before, to give
a sense of change over time.
Figure 15: Latest financial depository lending to other sectors, % ch YoY YoY credit growth 6 months before
YoY credit growth 6 months before
Argentina 51 Dec-17 39 Brazil -3 Jan-18 -7 Bangladesh 20 Feb-18 19 Chile 3 Dec-17 5 Croatia -2 Feb-18 -2 China 11 Jan-18 11 Estonia 3 Feb-18 6 Colombia 9 Nov-17 11 Jordan 10 Mar-17 9 Czechia 6 Jan-18 7 Kazakhstan -9 Feb-18 -11 Egypt 8 Jan-18 47 Kenya 2 Jan-18 4 Greece -6 Feb-18 -7 Kuwait 3 Dec-17 4 Hungary 4 Feb-18 3 Lithuania 2 Feb-18 4 India 4 Jun-17 6 Mauritius 12 Feb-18 14 Indonesia 7 Dec-17 8 Morocco 4 Feb-18 5 Korea 7 Jan-18 7 Nigeria 2 Dec-17 5 Malaysia 6 Oct-17 7 Oman 6 Aug-17 8 Mexico 10 Jan-18 5 Pakistan 19 Feb-18 19 Peru 6 Feb-18 1 Romania 6 Feb-18 6 Philippines 16 Dec-17 16 Serbia 2 Feb-18 2 Poland 4 Feb-18 4 Slovenia 3 Feb-18 4 Qatar 7 Feb-18 6 Sri Lanka 17 Sep-17 19 Russia 7 Jan-18 4 Tunisia 13 Jan-18 11 SA 5 Jan-18 6 Vietnam 18 Nov-17 20 Thailand 5 Jan-18 4
Turkey 20 Feb-18 23 UAE 0 Feb-18 -1
Georgia 15 Feb-18 23 Taiwan 3 Nov-17 6 Ukraine 5 Feb-18 -5
Saudi Arabia 1 Jan-18 -1 Ghana 19 Jan-18 13
Ivory Coast 15 Dec-17 18.7 Tanzania 3 May-17 9 Rwanda 14 Dec-17 14 Uganda 5 Jan-18 6 Senegal 17 Dec-17 9.6 Zambia 8 Feb-18 -17
Source: IMF
South Asia: Strong nominal growth of 17-20% for all except India at just 4%. Two of the
top-four credit growth stories in FM are Bangladesh and Sri Lanka – the other two are
Frontier favourites Argentina and Vietnam. Pakistan’s latest figure was the strongest real
growth in EM.
19%15%
28%
91%
81%
25%
14%
26%
14%
60%
12% 13%
22%27%
31%
111%
93%
18%22%
39%
14%
88%
13% 11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Ghana Ivory Coast Kenya Mauritius Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Tunisia Uganda Zambia
Three themes in Africa - higher debt in richer countries, Moroccan style rises in Senegal/Ivory Coast and stagnation in Anglophone Africa
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Debt labels for 2007 and 2017
16
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
LatAm: Accelerating credit growth in Argentina, Mexico, Peru and a good picture for
Colombia. Brazil’s data are less negative than previously, but we can’t rule out a double-
dip as we saw in much of Emerging Europe over the past decade.
CIS: Russia looks solid, and the data for Georgia are strong. Ukraine has rebounded but
credit is still contracting in real terms. Kazakhstan has double-dipped with a deep 15%
real fall YoY in the latest figures, probably connected to the bank mergers in the system.
Figure 16: Real credit growth in the latest data % ch YoY
Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
MENA: Credit growth is around 0-3% in the main economies. This might pick up in 2018
with the oil price rebound. Oman and Jordan were showing stronger figures, but we have
no data for them since August 2017. Egypt’s data were distorted until November 2017 by
the currency devaluation effect. We think better data should come in 2H18.
Africa: As noted above, this is a positive Francophone Africa story. Ghana is showing
signs of improvement, possibly helped by a more realistic Bank of Ghana approach to
NPLs. Tanzania is suffering from the Magafuli effect. Kenya is waiting for changes to the
interest rate cap which has brought lending growth to a halt. Nigeria’s credit growth was
also deeply negative in real terms, which reflects an economy still shrinking in per capita
terms and where government borrowing may be crowding out the private sector.
Figure 17: Real credit growth % ch YoY
Note: Oman and Jordan are pretty old data, Bahrain's are so old we could not include the country
Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
Emerging Europe: Before (Turkey) and after (Greece) a credit bust is evident in this
region, but Greece contrasts with the better post-crash data of Czechia, Hungary and
Poland because: 1) its boom was even greater; and 2) the Tsipras government has
deterred lending.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Pak
ista
n
Phi
lippi
nes
Chi
na
Tur
key
Qat
ar
Kor
ea
Col
ombi
a
Rus
sia
Mex
ico
Per
u
Tha
iland
Cze
chia
Indo
nesi
a
Pol
and
Tai
wan
Indi
a
Mal
aysi
a
Hun
gary
Chi
le SA
UA
E
Bra
zil
Gre
ece
Egy
pt
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Latest real credit growth, % ch YoY (MSCI EM and Saudi Arabia)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Arg
entin
a
Vie
tnam
Ban
glad
esh
Sri
Lank
a
Tun
isia
Jord
an*
Mau
ritiu
s
Om
an *
Kuw
ait
Mor
occo
Slo
veni
a
Rom
ania
Ser
bia
Est
onia
Lith
uani
a
Cro
atia
Ken
ya
Nig
eria
Kaz
akhs
tan
Sen
egal
Rw
anda
Ivor
y C
oast
Gha
na
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Tan
zani
a
Geo
rgia
Ukr
aine
Latest real credit growth % ch YoY (MSCI Frontier and Africa)
17
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Emerging markets
Within EM, the latest sanctions on Russia and the early election in Turkey have disrupted
two of the key currencies we follow, while Pakistan has allowed two devaluations since
our last big macro update in October. But even with that, EM FX as a GDP-weighted bloc
(ex-China of course), has only dipped a little, and it remains on an appreciation trajectory.
Including China, EM has only wobbled twice in the past 14 years of appreciation, which is
a good peg to re-emphasise our point about our REER model. When a country is
structurally changing as significantly as China’s is, then its currency history is much less
relevant than a currency history is when a country does not change. If Turkey has not
closed the gap with Europe in 20 years and produces roughly the same relative quality of
white goods as a generation ago, then its currency should arguably be at a similar level to
a generation ago. But if you are Korea and your product mix has reached a quality level
that can now compete with Apple, then you can easily manage a currency that looks
strong in REER terms.
Figure 18: MSCI EM and Frontier as GDP-weighted currencies, REER history (Jan-2007 = 100)
Source: Renaissance Capital, Bruegel, Bloomberg
MSCI Frontier has also appreciated over a decade, but we do not attribute this to
structural economic changes (though they are happening in Vietnam). We attribute real
appreciation to fixed exchange rate regimes (Gulf, EU member states), currencies that
are often managed (Vietnam, Nigeria to some extent, south Asia), and capital controls.
So we do not think China’s 28% ‘overvaluation’ relative to its long-term history is a real
danger signal. We check that by looking at the C/A position, which the IMF (and
Bloomberg consensus) assumes will remain in surplus, and whether it is particularly rare
for the currency to be more than 20% overvalued (it is not rare). All these signals, and
decent export growth data, tell us we can ignore the REER warning. Indeed, we still think
the JPY in the 1980s is a better guide for the CNY in the long term, and this tell us we are
heading towards CNY4/$ over the long term.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan-
95
Jul-9
5
Jan-
96
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
EM and Frontier Real Effective Exchange Rates and long-term averages, weighted by previous year's GDP
EM ex-China aggregate REER EM aggregate REER FM Aggregate REER
STRONGER
WEAKER
Currency outlook
18
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Thailand, Korea and central Europe are similarly un-concerning to us.
India concerns us more, but not yet, as the C/A deficit is manageable at 2% of GDP in
2018.
The Gulf currencies in EM (UAE and Qatar) are just 9-10% overvalued, which we don’t think
is particularly significant especially given their C/A surpluses and history of re-aligning their
currencies with the REER via inflation or deflation, instead of devaluation or revaluation.
It gets more interesting when we reach Pakistan. The PKR was 23% overvalued in
October when Pakistan was expected to have the worst C/A in EM in 2018. After two
devaluations, it is just 8% overvalued. We assume another shift weaker to PKR120/$
this year which would bring the PKR close to fair value and give it a significant competitive
advantage over all south Asian peers.
Sanctions led the RUB weaker, and at RUB61/$, it remains 3% over the average REER
implied since 1995. Oil is at least 10% above the long-term rate for 1995-2018 (Brent
average was $55/bl in nominal terms for 1995-2018, $62/bl in constant 2016 prices for
1995-2016 only) so a stronger RUB than 5% is justified. The C/A surplus support this too,
as do fairly high real interest rates. The RUB looks cheap to us.
We have argued the ZAR should not trade stronger than ZAR11-12/$ – which is in line
with fair value of ZAR11.7/$ – until we see economic policy changes or stronger
commodity prices to justify this. We think one-year risks are for appreciation, owing to
momentum and positive nominal and real interest rates. In the long term, we think there is
depreciation risk, if the ANC alters economic policy to prioritise job creation,
manufacturing with a weak currency to support this. We have a neutral view on the ZAR
at present.
Figure 19: REER in EM – ranked by overvaluation to undervaluation in the 5th column
Current FX rate
vs $
FX rate implied by LT average
REER
FX rate if REER falls to previous lows
Date of REER
low
LT average divided by
current rate
IMF 2017E C/A
(% GDP)
IMF 2018E C/A
(% GDP)
Standard deviations away
from historic average
Yvonne's avg. REER estimate
RenCap 18YE
forecast
1-year local currency
yields
China 6.33 8.10 10.9 Apr-95 1.28 1.4 1.2 1.0 3.0
Czech Republic 21.0 25.9 39.3 Jan-95 1.23 1.1 0.3 1.0 0.6
India 66.7 80.0 106 Feb-96 1.20 -2.0 -2.3 1.0 6.4
Thailand 31.5 36.5 52.8 Jan-98 1.16 10.8 9.3 1.0 1.4
UAE 3.67 4.05 4.58 Nov-07 1.10 4.7 5.3 1.0 3.2
Philippines 51.8 57.1 78.9 Feb-04 1.10 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 4.4
Qatar 3.66 3.99 5.01 Dec-03 1.09 1.3 2.5 0.0 3.0
Korea 1,068 1,158 1,790 Jan-98 1.08 5.1 5.5 0.0 1.9
Pakistan 116 125 144 Sep-01 1.08 -4.1 -4.8 0.0 6.6
Hungary 258 277 372 Apr-95 1.07 3.6 2.5 0.0 0.0
Chile 608 645 797 Jun-03 1.06 -1.5 -1.8 0.0 2.7
Indonesia 13,898 14,599 37,894 Jun-98 1.05 -1.7 -1.9 0.0 5.4
Poland 3.48 3.61 4.38 Nov-97 1.04 0.0 -0.9 0.0 1.3
Russia 62.6 64.2 125 Jan-99 1.03 2.6 4.5 0.0 61.5 6.4
Greece 0.83 0.82 0.95 Sep-00 0.99 -0.8 -0.8 0.0 0.9
Taiwan 29.6 29.2 34.3 Nov-09 0.99 13.8 13.6 0.0 1.1
Peru 3.24 3.14 3.50 Jul-07 0.97 -1.3 -0.7 0.0 2.4
Malaysia 3.92 3.78 5.73 Dec-98 0.96 3.0 2.4 0.0 3.4
South Africa 12.4 11.7 17.5 Dec-01 0.94 -2.3 -2.9 0.0 11.3 7.6
Brazil 3.46 3.26 6.28 Oct-02 0.94 -0.5 -1.6 0.0 6.3
Turkey 4.04 3.48 5.16 Oct-01 0.86 -5.5 -5.4 0.0 14.1
Egypt 17.7 15.0 22.9 Dec-03 0.85 -6.5 -4.4 0.0 14 17.6 16.5
Mexico 18.6 15.1 24.6 Mar-95 0.81 -1.6 -1.9 -1.0 7.7
Colombia 2,806 1,789 3,016 Nov-17 0.64 -3.4 -2.6 -2.0 4.4 Note: Govt bonds/bills except: Qatar, Taiwan, UAE (Interbank rates)
Source: Bruegel, IMF, Renaissance Capital
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
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Turkey is the tough one. We argued in December that 20 years of history showed
investors had never lost money over one year, buying the TRY when it was 12% cheap to
our REER fair value average4, especially when the interest rate carry was added to the
mix (but we added it was a coin-toss on a one- or three-month view). We assumed the
Central Bank of Turkey would significantly hike rates in December, or January. It did not.
Today, the TRY is 14% cheap to its long-term average, one-year yields at 14% are the
highest in EM (once Egypt’s tax on T-bills is taken into account) and many in the market
are negative on the credit. But there is good reason for this negativity. We ourselves
argued in 2015 that a crisis is probably just a matter of time, thanks to the excessive
credit growth of the past decade. Turkey is expected to have the worst EM C/A deficit in
2018 (according to IMF forecasts). Minimum wage hikes and the exchange rate in March
2018 suggest the minimum wage is the same in Turkey and Hungary, which does not
reflect the productivity differential between the two countries, in our view. The president
after being in power beyond the 15-year ideal maximum we identified in our 2013 report5
has little restraint on his attempts to interfere with economic policy. He has now hinted at
introducing interest rate caps to support bank lending (we should introduce him to Kenya).
Inflation targets have lost what little credibility they ever had. Despite all this, we would
own TRY bonds when the currency is 10% cheap to fair value, on the assumption
(not very strongly held), that the country will be run a little more responsibly after the July
elections. Yes, that is highly debatable.
We think Egypt is a much easier call. We expect the currency to remain broadly flat until
mid-2019 at which point we think fair value will have weakened to EGP17.5-18.0/$. We
would recommend that the authorities then allow the EGP to gently depreciate, in line with
productivity adjusted inflation differentials. This would keep the EGP at fair value and
support the industrialisation and job creation that we expect to take-off in the 2020s. We
would still buy EGP bonds today. We are not put off by a crowded trade when
fundamentals align so well behind that trade.
Lastly, the pro-LatAm theme strikes again, with the MXN and COP both looking like the
best-value EM currencies. Of the two, the MXN often stays undervalued (21% of the time, or
nearly five years out of the past 25), while the COP is only this cheap 13% of the time. The
outlook for the MXN, as with IMF 2019 growth forecasts, is subject to the 1 July elections.
Frontier markets
Our REER model is not as useful for FM as for EM. Currencies are not easily tradeable,
so under- or overvaluation can be sustained for much longer than in EM. Underlying data,
such as inflation, may be false (Argentina 2007-2015), or calculations can be rendered
invalid by changing the calculation method (eg Kenya data pre-2010). Capital controls are
more common (eg Vietnam) and multiple exchange rates can add to the fun and games
(eg Nigeria).
▪ Kenya, we tend to favour Yvonne Mhango’s 2004-2018 REER model because it
has less of the inflation distortion we have noted previously. If we do a third
(2009-2018) REER model, fair value is KES109.5/$. The key point in Kenya’s
favour is that there is no widespread parallel currency market. The KES is kept
strong by currency flows that are hard to identify. Wages data we have collected
support the view that the KES is too strong.
4 Click here for our 13 December 2017 email 5 See Directional economics: The problem of political longevity, 12 August 2013
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 20: We do not think exchange rates are appropriate when Turkey's minimum wage is similar to Hungary's, or Kenya's is similar to Tunisia's
Note: Data on the left-hand side are consistent Eurostat data we converted to dollars in early 2018; data on the right are not consistent and should be treated cautiously
Source: Eurostat, various media
▪ Argentina looks significantly overvalued, but we have had to use an unofficial
inflation data series to come up with this fair value estimate. This makes us wary.
The C/A deficit supports the view the ARS is too strong. The high one-year rates
can still give investors a positive dollar return but we prefer Egypt.
▪ Vietnam is another China. The apparent REER overvaluation is contradicted by
the C/A surplus.
▪ Like India’s INR, we worry about the Bangladeshi currency. But not acutely
when the C/A deficit is just 2% of GDP in 2018.
▪ Kuwait’s currency is the most overvalued Gulf currency, but also the currency
with the most financial firepower behind it. We do not expect a devaluation.
▪ We are not going to try and explain Lebanon. We do not have a view on
Jordan or Mauritius, but significant C/A deficits suggest we should.
▪ Sri Lanka devalued its currency and was until recently the best-value South
Asian currency. We think 11% overvaluation is not a concern when the C/A
deficit is this small.
▪ Romania interest us. It should be the canary in the coalmine for Emerging
Europe, with shrinking demographics, low unemployment, booming wages,
negative real interest rates and a worsening C/A deficit. Against the EUR, it has
depreciated by 5% in a fairly straight line since September 2016 so is trending
towards RON4.8/EUR by mid-2019. If bank lending took off, we would turn more
negative on the currency. For now, we are merely cautiously negative.
▪ We like Nigeria at this FX rate. We think there is a good argument that 7%
overvaluation is too little, given where oil prices (see the Russia RUB section
above) and double-digit interest rates. However, we do not expect significant
nominal appreciation before the elections in February 2019. By then, inflation will
likely have driven fair value above NGN400/$. Our economist Yvonne Mhango
assumes NGN356/$ by end-2018 and NGN360/$ by end-2019. Nigeria has a
history of maintaining a currency that is too strong and too weak, but rarely ever
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Blue = Emerging MarketsGreen = Frontier Markets
21
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
fair value. This helps explain our view of stability through 2019, supported by our
assumption of a C/A surplus.
▪ We are very relaxed about Morocco, Senegal and Ivory Coast. We do not
believe the WAEMU countries will sacrifice the CFA by the end of 2019 to join a
currency union with Ghana6. We think Morocco has managed the gradual
widening of its currency bands very well.
▪ Both Kazakhstan and Tunisia look good value to us. The caveat for the KZT
is that its exchange rate is heavily influenced by the RUB. Appreciation of the
KZT is more likely if the RUB also appreciates. The caveat for Tunisia is that the
IMF thinks the currency is overvalued, while we think it is the cheapest in
Frontier, or Africa, and the cheapest it has ever been. The TND has only been
this cheap 3% of the time in the past 23 years. The IMF can rightly point to a
10% of GDP C/A deficit while we would point to recent trade trends suggesting
improvement is likely in 2018. It is far from a slam-dunk, but the TND has already
remained stable against the EUR since November 20177.
In beyond Frontier MENA and CIS countries, Saudi Arabia looks similar in FX terms to the
UAE or Qatar. Belarus has the second-cheapest currency of any we follow (after Colombia)
which is credit supportive. Azerbaijan looks decent value compared with most other oil
currencies (the KZT is better). Georgia is modestly overvalued relative to the fair value
estimates of both our REER model and our Russian & CIS economist Oleg Kouzmin, but it
often is, and it has a big C/A deficit (it usually does). Armenia has the most expensive CIS
currency we follow but less than India or Bangladesh, and it has a similarly modest C/A
deficit. The currency is unaffected by political unrest at the time of writing.
6 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: ECOWAS single currency in 2020? Not credible, 22 March 2018 7 Recent trade data mean we are more confident on the TND than we were when we published Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Tunisia: Outperforming in the 2020s, 25 January 2018
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 21: Frontier, Gulf and CIS currencies – REER data, ranked by fifth column of overvaluation to undervaluation
Current FX rate
vs $
FX rate implied by LT average
REER
FX rate if REER falls to previous lows
Date of REER
low
LT average divided by
current rate
IMF 2017E C/A
(% GDP)
IMF 2018E C/A
(% GDP)
Standard deviations away
from historic average
Yvonne's avg. REER estimate
RenCap 18YE
forecast
1-year local currency
yields
Kenya 100 158 298 Jul-95 1.57 -6.4 -6.2 1.0 124 107.5 11.1
Argentina* 20.5 29.8 65.4 Mar-02 1.45 -4.8 -5.1 1.0 22.5
Vietnam 22,760 28,838 36,655 Jan-04 1.27 4.1 3.0 1.0 2.5
Bangladesh 84.2 104 128 Dec-06 1.24 -1.2 -2.0 1.0 4.3
Kuwait 0.30 0.37 0.45 Jun-95 1.23 2.0 5.8 2.0 2.9
Estonia 0.83 1.00 1.64 Jan-95 1.21 3.2 2.0 1.0 na
Lithuania 0.83 0.99 1.92 Apr-95 1.20 1.0 -0.1 1.0 0.0
Lebanon 1,509 1,772 3,161 Dec-92 1.17 -25.0 -25.8 1.0 6.2
Jordan 0.71 0.82 1.01 Sep-95 1.16 -8.7 -8.5 1.0 7.2
Mauritius 34.0 37.9 44.0 Dec-06 1.11 -6.0 -7.4 1.0 3.7
Sri Lanka 158 175 220 Feb-04 1.11 -2.9 -2.7 0.0 9.6
Oman 0.38 0.42 0.49 Nov-07 1.10 -11.5 -6.2 1.0 3.0
Romania 3.85 4.19 8.84 Feb-97 1.09 -3.5 -3.7 0.0 2.4
Nigeria 360 385 867 Apr-95 1.07 2.5 0.5 0.0 313 356 12.4
Croatia 6.12 6.41 7.17 May-00 1.05 3.7 3.0 0.0 0.2
Ivory Coast 552 575 668 Aug-97 1.04 -1.2 -1.5 0.0 561 5.6
Bahrain 0.38 0.39 0.47 Jun-11 1.03 -3.9 -3.2 0.0 3.6
Slovenia 0.83 0.85 0.92 Aug-97 1.02 6.5 5.7 0.0 -0.5
Serbia 97.5 96.1 163 Feb-01 0.99 -4.6 -4.5 0.0 na
Morocco 9.28 9.08 9.68 Aug-12 0.98 -3.8 -3.6 0.0 2.3
Senegal 552 526 581 Nov-00 0.95 -9.4 -7.9 -1.0 561 5.5
Kazakhstan 327 280 364 Jan-16 0.85 -2.9 -1.4 -1.0 335 8.1
Tunisia 2.44 1.89 2.49 Nov-17 0.77 -10.1 -9.2 -1.0 6.0
*Argentina's inflation data was unreliable for 2007-15 – we have constructed an REER series using 'shadow' inflation data
Armenia 482 557 867 Mar-95 1.16 -2.6 -2.8 0.0 6.6
Saudi Arabia 3.75 4.15 5.05 Mar-08 1.11 2.7 5.4 1.0 2.2
Georgia 2.46 2.63 4.40 Apr-95 1.07 -9.3 -10.5 0.0 2.65 7.3
Azerbaijan 1.70 1.60 2.62 Jan-95 0.94 3.5 5.6 0.0 8.1
Iran 36,056 29,998 68,105 Jun-95 0.83 4.3 7.0 0.0 na
Ukraine 26.2 20.9 40.0 Feb-15 0.80 -3.7 -3.7 -1.0 16.4
Belarus 2.00 1.33 2.32 Oct-11 0.66 -1.8 -2.5 -1.0 3.8
Note: Govt bonds/bills except: Morocco, Kenya, Senegal, Tunisia, Mauritius, Ivory Coast, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Saudi Arabia (auction yields); Oman, Bahrain, Jordan (interbank rates); Argentina (deposit rate); Kazakhstan (12M NDF implied yield.
Source: Bruegel, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
Africa
Most of the caveats for Frontier currencies apply to our Africa REER table too. Having
said that, we can say a few things on currencies we have not already addressed:
▪ Angola looks too expensive even after the modest devaluation earlier this year.
Some premium to the AOA fair value estimate (our GEM/Frontier REER model
suggest fair value is AOA347/$, our SSA model suggests AOA267/$) is justified
by oil. Around AOA300/$ looks reasonable based on the London model, and
perhaps AOA240/$ on Yvonne’s model.
▪ Zambia is a tough call, with again our two models giving quite different numbers
(primarily because copper was cheaper over 1995-2018 than 2004-2018). With
the addition of our FICC strategist Greg Smith to the team, we should be able to
provide you with at least three opinions on Zambia in the future.
▪ Ethiopia is still overvalued but much less so since the devaluation in October.
The authorities recently announced that currency shortages will remain for the
next 15 years.
▪ Tanzania looks fair value to cheap, Rwanda is cheap, and Uganda is very
cheap and both our REER models broadly agree on all three.
▪ Ghana still looks good value, as it did through 2017. The currency is 14% cheap
on our GEM/Frontier REER model, and slightly more so on Yvonne’s model. The
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
C/A is much improved, growth is good, and the country is ripe for
industrialisation. Providing pre-2020 fiscal policy is kept on track, this may
continue to be an interesting trade for investors.
Figure 22: African currencies – REER where Jan 2007 = 100, ranked by the fifth column of over and undervaluation
Current FX rate
vs $
FX rate implied by LT average
REER
FX rate if REER falls to previous lows
Date of REER
low
LT average divided by
current rate
IMF 2017E C/A
(% GDP)
IMF 2018E C/A
(% GDP)
Standard deviations away
from historic average
Yvonne's avg. REER estimate
RenCap 18YE
forecast
1-year local currency
yields
C.A. Republic 558 1,075 1,482 Dec-99 1.93 -10.2 -9.3 2.0 na
Kenya 100 158 298 Jul-95 1.57 -6.4 -6.2 1.0 124 107.5 11.1
Angola 225 347 1,218 Oct-99 1.54 -4.5 -2.2 1.0 267 23.9
Zambia 9.80 11.8 21.3 Jul-95 1.20 -3.3 -2.6 0.0 9.2 1.05 17.6
Congo (Rep) 558 668 874 Feb-95 1.20 -12.7 3.0 1.0 na
Eq. Guinea 558 659 1,004 Oct-00 1.18 -0.5 -0.9 0.0 7.9
Ethiopia 27.5 31.5 43.3 Jan-04 1.15 -8.1 -6.5 0.0 29 na
Botswana 9.80 11.2 13.2 Sep-98 1.14 10.8 8.3 2.0 na
Mauritius 34.0 37.9 44.0 Dec-06 1.11 -6.0 -7.4 1.0 3.7
Cameroon 558 603 694 Oct-00 1.08 -2.5 -2.5 1.0 3.8
Gabon 558 598 664 Sep-00 1.07 -4.8 -1.5 1.0 na
Nigeria 360 385 867 Apr-95 1.07 2.5 0.5 0.0 313 356 12.4
Ivory Coast 552 575 668 Aug-97 1.04 -1.2 -1.5 0.0 561 5.6
Namibia 12.4 12.8 17.2 Dec-01 1.03 -1.4 -3.6 0.0 8.3
Tanzania 2,284 2,259 2,772 Dec-93 0.99 -3.8 -5.4 0.0 2191 2367 4.4
Chad 558 552 692 May-00 0.99 -5.2 -4.3 0.0 6.0
Morocco 9.28 9.08 9.68 Aug-12 0.98 -3.8 -3.6 0.0 2.3
Senegal 552 526 581 Nov-00 0.95 -9.4 -7.9 -1.0 561 5.5
Algeria 115 109 127 Mar-08 0.95 -12.3 -9.3 0.0 na
South Africa 12.4 11.7 17.5 Dec-01 0.94 -2.3 -2.9 0.0 11.3 7.6
Mozambique 59.7 54.6 80.9 Sep-16 0.91 -16.1 -16.9 0.0 43 15.9
Rwanda 855 767 1,009 Feb-04 0.90 -6.8 -8.4 0.0 801 884 na
Uganda 3,715 3,199 4,162 Aug-11 0.86 -4.5 -6.9 0.0 3239 9.0
Ghana 4.49 3.87 7.17 Aug-14 0.86 -4.5 -4.1 0.0 3.6 4.84 15.0
Egypt 17.7 15.0 22.9 Dec-03 0.85 -6.5 -4.4 0.0 14 17.6 16.5
Tunisia 2.44 1.89 2.49 Nov-17 0.77 -10.1 -9.2 -1.0 6.0
Note: Auction yields except: Egypt, Nigeria, Uganda, South Africa) Source: Bruegel, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
In terms of local currency debt trades, we favoured Ghana (from 2Q17), Nigeria (from
May 2017) and Egypt in 2017, and after visits to all three earlier this year, this economist
still likes them in 2018 too.
Russia has become more interesting since the RUB weakened.
Turkey already interested us in December (prematurely perhaps, but we still have eight
months for that trade to come good), and still interests us, despite all the good reasons to
be negative.
We would also be tempted to pick up some exposure to Kazakhstan, Tunisia and
potentially Uganda, but perhaps only worth it if you want to spend more time with that
special someone in the middle office.
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
As we write this conclusion, our oil team have upgraded its oil price forecast for 2018 (to a
still cautious $62.5/bl, with $55.0/bl for 2019) and Brent oil has hit $74.0/bl. Oil exporters
keep coming up well in most of the key macro indicators we look at.
The strongest growth acceleration that the IMF has in GEM / Frontier are in oil exporters
ranging from Colombia in EM to the defaulting Eurobond credit of Republic of Congo. The
UAE comes top in the EEMEA growth acceleration space, and Kuwait in Frontier. We
think Russia (2%) and Nigeria (3%) will both surprise on the upside relative to
conservative IMF 2018 GDP growth forecasts of 1.5% and 2.1% respectively. Egypt is
another growth winner in the IMF forecasts even though it is still an energy importer for
one more year.
We do not see these currencies in our time zone rallying significantly – neither Russia,
Nigeria, Egypt nor Ghana. FX reserves build-up remains the priority we think. The KZT
could justifiably do better though. We have become more constructive on the TND since
our January visit and even there, rising oil prices can have a benefit as Algerians and
Libyans pop across the border.
Bank lending is already on the rise in Russia, and helped by oil, may get back up off the
floor in the Gulf too. The biggest bank lending theme we draw your attention to is the 17-
20% nominal growth in South Asia (ex-India), as well as the better-known booms under
way in Argentina and Vietnam. Emerging Europe remains a disappointment, and bank
lending in Africa is only a Francophone story. Francophone West Africa also looks
attractive to us for the high GDP growth they are recording. We guess lending will pick up
in Nigeria (oil) and Kenya (a modified interest cap rule) later this year.
Central Europe, and Frontier Europe (Estonia to Romania), represents a conundrum to
us. Growth is slowing across the region – the IMF thinks. That’s a negative. Currencies
are a little too strong, even if fundamentals suggest real appreciation over time is justified.
Interest rates are very low even though wages are booming (because workforces are
shrinking). But this can be partly justified because credit growth remains pretty feeble
across the region, so neither C/A deterioration (sooner) nor inflation (later) are looking like
a problem. We do think credit rating upgrades that have been long overdue are now
coming through, and more will come. It is not that we are negative on the region per se,
but we do think overheating seems more likely here than in almost any country we cover.
The ‘almost any other country’ is obviously Turkey. It had one of the best growth rates in
EM in 2017 and is expected to have the biggest C/A deficit in 2018 and one of the highest
inflation rates too. Yet our 2015 forecast of a GDP and/or banking crash in 2016-2018 has
pretty well run out of time. In fact, we recommended one-year currency exposure (to
bond, not equity) investors in December 2017. The TRY has weakened off a little more
since December, and while we see many problems for the economy, we still think we’d
have a few TRY bonds in our debt portfolio. The underweight equity call of our strategist
Dan Salter has played out well.
Given Turkey’s problems and high wages, we are more confident that North Africa will
benefit from Central Europe running out of labour. We are increasingly convinced that the
combination of literacy and electricity will transform North Africa in the coming decade.
Overall, we think EM is not even half-way through the upswing cycle, so there is not much
to dislike right now. Our only disappointment with the world is that as a Frontier/EEMEA
investment bank, we find a lot of the most interesting stories are in LatAm. The cheapest
currencies are the COP and MXN, the fast-rising credit growth is there too, and the GDP
growth acceleration is, again, in LatAm. As a mere macro tourist in that space, we shall
rely on Google Translate to sign off with a Buscando Buena America Latino.
Macro conclusions
25
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Why aren’t all African, South Asian and lower-per-capita GDP countries growing by 7-
8%+ annually, and when might they do so? Step by step, we are trying to answer this
question. We think the key requirements for rapid and high sustained growth are
education, electricity, transport infrastructure and at least a 25% investment/GDP ratio.
For countries with rising populations to grow at 7-8%, they need to achieve high per
capita real growth of 3-6%. This compares with the more normal 1-2% per capita GDP
growth that over 50 countries globally have achieved over the past 30-40 years. Or to
address this in specifics, how does a Nigeria become a Mauritius (a country written off as
doomed by Nobel Prize winning economists in the 1970s)?
Figure 23: How many countries have grown at what average per capita GDP rate over the last few decades (with country examples for each column)
Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital
We first looked at education when we published The Fastest Billion: The story behind
Africa’s economic revolution in 2012, but we addressed this even more comprehensively
in two key pieces in 20178. Our conclusion was that: 1) only when adult literacy was 70-
80% or more could a country industrialise; and 2) industrialisation has historically been
necessary for (non-oil exporting) countries to get rich. This enabled us to distinguish
between those countries that can grow rapidly now (Ghana, East, South and North Africa,
Sri Lanka, Vietnam) and those that may have to wait a decade (Nigeria, Pakistan,
Bangladesh) or a generation or more (much of West Africa).
In this piece, we address what we believe is another building block, electricity. We find
that electricity consumption per capita is vitally important. The data we show help us
distinguish between those countries that can now grow rapidly and sustainably (those with
high literacy), and those that will (those who also have sufficient electricity). It will not
come as a great surprise to you that Vietnam has better prospects than Ivory Coast, but
there are surprises in the data worthy of your attention. Nor should it be a great surprise
that electricity correlates well with per capita GDP.
8 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Literacy and industrialisation, in July 2017, and No take-off without education, 27 October 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-2 to -11% -1.0-1.9% -0.1-0.9% 0.2-0.9% 1.0-1.9% 2.0-2.9% 3.0-3.9% 4.1-4.9% 5.0-5.9% 6.0-6.9% 7%+
Real per capita GDP since 1980 (or 1990, 1991, or whenever first data point is) - clustered by number of countries, IMF data viaRenaissance Capital
ChinaGeorgia
KoreaVietnamLithuania
Taiwan,Cambodia
IndiaLao,
Estonia Sri Lanka ThailandMauritius
IrelandSing.Indon.
HKKazakh.Bangla.Turkey
EgyptMoroccoNigeriaTunisia
BrazilGreeceMexico
SA
Russia
Saudi VenezuelaZimbabwe
UAE
UkraineIvory Coast
Electricity
26
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 24: Electricity consumption is correlated with per capita GDP
Source: World Bank Enterprise surveys
In a future piece, we plan to address the third prong of transport infrastructure, looking at
ports, roads and rail. We suspect this will be strongly linked to the investment/GDP ratio,
which Daniel Salter emphasised was so important in his key work on the middle income
trap9. We already recognise that high investment above 25% of GDP can help propel
strong growth for many years in countries such as Ethiopia and Bangladesh, despite
weaknesses in education and electricity.
Why are we addressing electricity before transport infrastructure? Partly because the data
are easier to find, but electricity is more important. The World Bank enterprise surveys show
that among 128 countries, firms in 99 of them say that electricity issues are a bigger
constraint to doing business than transport infrastructure. Just 29 say transport
infrastructure is a bigger problem and they are all clustered in countries that do not appear
to have acute electricity supply issues. There is no country where more than half of firms
have electricity challenges that thinks transport is a bigger problem than electricity.
9 See The Focal Point: Are we caught in a (middle income) trap, 12 September 2016
Burundi
Malawi
Mozambique
Sierra Leone
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Chad
Tanzania
Kyrgyzstan
Zimbabwe
CambodiaBangladesh
Zambia
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Pakistan
Kenya
India
Rep Congo
Vietnam
Ukraine
Nigeria
MoroccoIndonesia
Egypt
Georgia
Sri Lanka
Iran Thailand
SA
Peru
China
Brazil
Russia
Mexico
Turkey
Maldives
PolandArgentina
Eq. Guinea
CzechiaGreece
Bahrain
Korea
Kuwait UAE
Iceland
Ireland
Qatar
Norway
Switz.
R² = 0.8031
10
20
40
80
160
320
640
1,280
2,560
5,120
10,240
20,480
40,960
250 500 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 16,000 32,000 64,000 128,000
Ele
ctri
city
co
nsu
mp
tio
n (K
Wh
per
per
son
), 2
015
GDP per Capita ($), 2015
Per capita GDP (current $ in 2015) vs election consumption (kWh per capita, 2015), logged scales; IMF, IEA and EIA data via Renaissance Capital
More electricity than youshould expect - often in post-communist countries,or aluminium producers
More GDP per capitathan you should expect
27
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 25: Electricity is a bigger constraint on business than transport infrastructure
Source: World Bank Enterprise surveys
Why are we addressing electricity after literacy? Because 200 years of literacy data show
that industrialisation is impossible without literacy. We found further confirmation of this in
the data we outline below. Some countries such as Zambia had relatively high electricity
output as long ago as 1980, but because literacy was sub-70%, no industrial take-off
could occur.
Education has to come first, as it did in Korea which was poorer than Ghana in 1960.
What we discovered this month is that Korean data seem to show that it achieved the
greatest rise of adult literacy ever in the 1950s. Most countries lift adult literacy by about 1
ppt a year, and this is now our base line when plotting the future for Nigeria, Bangladesh
and others. Josef Stalin’s USSR managed 2 ppts10. South Korea claims it achieved 7
ppts, lifting adult literacy from 22% in 1945 to 86% in 1954 (and 96% by 1958)11. Yet half
of Korean households had no access to electricity in 196912. Serious electrification of
Korea only happened in the 1970s, when it helped drive consumption in the economy.
While one household in 167 had a television in 1970, the ratio was 1 in 1.3 households by
1979. Education came first in Korea.
The implication is that electricity should be the top priority for countries that have already
reached 70% adult literacy rates.
10 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: The legacy of Russia’s 1917 revolution, 20 September 2017 11 See Development Process and Outcomes of Adult Literacy Education in Korea, Ministry of Education, Science and Technology. Note South Korea was competing with North Korea at this time, which claimed it abolished adult illiteracy in 1949. 12 See Rural Electrification Project for Expansion of Power Supply, 2012, Ministry of Knowledge Economy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Chi
na (
2012
)
Sw
azila
nd (
2016
)
Mon
tene
gro
(201
3)
Ser
bia
(201
3)
Arm
enia
(20
13)
Mal
aysi
a (2
015)
Hun
gary
(20
13)
Bel
arus
(20
13)
Nam
ibia
(20
14)
Est
onia
(20
13)
Per
u (2
010)
Egy
pt (
2016
)
Phi
lippi
nes
(201
5)
Sou
th A
fric
a (2
007)
Zim
babw
e (2
016)
Tim
or-L
este
(20
15)
Bol
ivia
(20
17)
Mal
awi (
2014
)
Fiji
(20
09)
Mad
agas
car
(201
3)
Uga
nda
(201
3)
Ecu
ador
(20
17)
Chi
le (
2010
)
All
Cou
ntrie
s
Eth
iopi
a (2
015)
Hon
dura
s (2
016)
Ang
ola
(201
0)
Col
ombi
a (2
010)
Arg
entin
a (2
010)
Bra
zil (
2009
)
Djib
outi
(201
3)
Sen
egal
(20
14)
Tog
o (2
016)
DR
C(2
013)
Pal
estin
e (2
013)
Uru
guay
(20
17)
Gab
on (
2009
)
Ben
in (
2016
)
Cos
ta R
ica
(201
0)
Mal
i (20
16)
Gui
nea-
Bis
sau
(200
6)
Cen
tral
Afr
.Rep
. (20
11)
In these 128 countries, an average of 31% firms see electricity as a major constraint to business, against 19% who cite transportation as a major constraint
Percent of firms identifying electricity as a major constraint Percent of firms identifying transportation as a major constraint
28
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Best snippet on electricity – from prehistoric fires to LED lights13
In the prehistoric era, a person would have to gather, chop and burn wood for roughly 10
hours a day for six days (60 hours work) in order to produce the equivalent light of a
modern lightbulb shining for about one hour.
Around the time of the Babylonian empire, circa 1750 B.C., 60 hours of labour could buy
the equivalent of 88 minutes of today's light from oil-burning lanterns.
Around the year 1800, you could get about 10 hours of modern-equivalent lighting from
animal fat candles for 60 hours of labour
The Industrial Revolution brought with it a revolution in lighting. The first was gas-powered
street lighting, showing up in London around 1807. Sixty hours of labour would net you 16
hours of lighting.
Thomas Edison’s light bulb was far more efficient than lighting by earlier methods — 60
hours of work would translate to 72 hours of lighting, nearly a five-fold efficiency increase
over early gas lights.
By 1950, the technology (notably fluorescent tubes) had progressed to the point that 60
hours of labour would light a bulb for a whopping 28,723 hours, or nearly 1,200 days
By 1994, the compact fluorescent bulb’s introduction meant that 60 hours of labour could
light a bulb for over 51 years.
All we can add is that if LED lights require 10 times less power, and labour productivity
has risen by 10% since 1994, this figure may be more like 600 years now. If there is any
implication we can draw from this, it is that the electricity needed to industrialise might be
less than in the past, due to growing efficiency and better technologies.
Figure 26: We've come a long way baby – hours of light (equivalent to a 1994 lightbulb) provided by 60 hours of labour (log scale)
Source: Washington Post, Renaissance Capital (2018 estimate)
13 The italicised text is sourced from the Washington Post 26 June 2017
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Fire (20,000 BC)
Oil lamp (1750 BC)
Tallow candle (1800)
Gas light (London, 1807)
Edison bulb (1883)
Fluorescent light (1950)
1994 bulb
LED bulb ? (2018)
Hours of light - provided by 60 hours of labour
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Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Electricity – the key table and graph
Our basic premise in writing this piece is that you cannot industrialise (ie have a
manufacturing sector that is sustainably above 20% of GDP) without a decent amount of
electricity. We looked at 5,249 data points, where we had manufacturing as a percentage
of GDP, in 125 countries, over 1960-2015, and compared this with electricity consumption
per capita data from the IEA and EIA. We assumed there would be no cases of high
manufacturing in countries with very little electricity (eg less than 300 kWh per capita). We
also expected that manufacturing would peak in countries with ‘middle income’ levels of
electricity, and that rich countries with the most electricity would have left manufacturing
behind, but still be intensive users of electricity.
Figure 27: Number of incidents where manufacturing to GDP (lhs, vertical) from 0% to more than 25%, coincides with electricity consumption in kWh/per capita annually, from 0 to more than 20,000
50 100 250 500 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 >20,000
2.5 20 13 4 7 9 19 8 9 0 0 0 5.0 59 43 76 24 32 56 37 17 0 0 0 7.5 101 88 91 48 59 67 44 22 13 0 2 10.0 88 97 82 77 62 68 107 33 24 0 12 12.5 70 27 81 59 73 58 81 51 22 5 19 15.0 41 58 90 67 66 107 137 80 15 5 16 17.5 17 33 78 84 75 120 92 99 13 7 2 20.0 5 18 50 78 96 86 153 88 9 6 1 22.5 0 9 10 66 87 55 107 60 16 5 0 25.0 0 6 2 46 66 43 93 56 16 6 0 > 25 0 0 5 33 69 109 136 78 9 5 0
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
What we actually found was that, since 1960, no country with electricity consumption less than
50 kWh/per capita has ever had a manufacturing sector of 22.5% of GDP or more. There are
few cases of manufacturing above 20% of GDP in countries with less than 300 kWh/per
capita14 and none of these were sustainable. Our other assumptions were confirmed.
To put this another way, and hopefully even more clearly, we show in the graph below
every data point for any country since 1960 with manufacturing above 20.0% of GDP
relative to its electricity output. Of the 1,193 data points, half are already achieved by
countries with less electricity consumption per capita than 2,000 kWh. The biggest
increase in data points is when countries are in the 500-1,000 kWh range (19% of all of
them), followed by 1,000-1,500 kWh (13%) and then 300-500 kWh (11%). Just 4% are
achieved by countries with less than 300 kWh.
14 Benin 1999-2006, Cambodia in 2004, China 1980-82, DRC between 2001-2009, India in 1979, Lesotho 2001-2008, Malawi 1992, Morocco 1981-1987, Myanmar in 2012 and 2015, Philippines in 1971-72, 1987 and 1992-, Sri Lanka in 1977, Thailand in 1977 and 1980-81 and Yemen in 1990-1991
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Figure 28: The big industrialisation drive is driven by countries with electricity consumption of 300-2,000 kWh per capita – especially 500-1,000
Source: EIA, IEA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
One thing the data did not show was a big slump in manufacturing among rich countries.
We assumed countries start as poor agricultural nations, become middle income
manufacturing nations, then slump back into a de-industrialised services heaven of video-
games, air-conditioning and microwaved oven chips (my retirement plans in hotter climes
are not well hidden). In fact, while manufacturing does soar, it does not slump back. That
must just be an Anglo-Saxon thing.
Figure 29: As countries get wealthier, their manufacturing sector expands, but does not slump as much at high income levels as we expected
Source: IEA, EIA, IMF, Renaissance Capital
Lastly, is manufacturing necessary anyway? We have asked this question before, and the
latest IMF response answer is, “not necessarily”. In its latest WEO, it suggests that
productivity growth can be just as high in some services as manufacturing (it highlights
everything from Russian banking in the 2000s to Korean postal services and
communications to wholesale trade in Czechia). What is crucial is that labour moves from
low value-added agriculture to higher value-added manufacturing or services. Whichever
route is taken, we think it cannot happen without literacy and without electricity, so if you
buy the IMF argument, replace ‘manufacturing’ with ‘high valued-added services’ in the
text below.
What is a kWh per capita per year?
Before we look at where the world ranks on electricity consumption, let’s just put electricity
consumption into perspective. What we are saying is that if your country does not provide
enough power to supply one LCD TV (241 kWh) for a year per person, it cannot
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
200 300 500 1000 1500 2000 3000 4000 5000 10000 10001+
Number of datapoints (lhs) where manufacturing is more 20% of GDP vs kWh per capita (horizontal axis)
Cases of a country having manufacturing of 20% of GDP Extra cases
Manufacturing takes off when electricity consumption rises above 500 kwh
9
180444
743
724
488 292
356 664
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
$200
-$50
0
$500
-$1,
000
$1,0
00-
$2,0
00
$2,0
00-
$5,0
00
$5,0
00-
$10,
000
$10,
000-
$15,
000
$15,
000-
$20,
000
$20,
000-
$30,
000
$30,
000+
Manufacturing to GDP by income level (2011 constant PPP $) - label shows number of datapoints
Data points are includemainly to emphasise how we should discount the first column
31
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
industrialise. But enough power to supply a TV and a computer (over 300 kWh together) is
perhaps sufficient, and by the time a washing machine and a light bulb are thrown in
(around 500 kWh in total), then ‘made in X’ becomes a realistic and sustainable story.
Figure 30: Electricity consumption per item Use Consumption per year, kWh
LCD TV 335 days, 4 hours per day 241 LED TV 335 days, 4 hours per day 54 Computer with flat screen 240 days – 4 hours per day 72 Game console 387 hours per year 8 to 70 Low energy lightbulb 335 days, 5 hours per day 20 Washing machine A+++ 48 weeks, 4 x per week 173 Microwave oven 48 weeks – 1.5 hours p/w 90 Fridge / Freezer A+ 365 days continuously 201 Dishwasher 48 weeks – 5x per week 288 Electric oven 48 weeks – 1.5x per week 162 Mobile phone charger 365 days – 1 hour 1.9
Source: https://www.energuide.be/en/questions-answers/how-much-energy-do-my-household-appliances-use/71/
PS – we should all get LED TVs for the good of the environment.
Where is the world today in terms of kWh electricity consumption?
Cold northern countries and energy-rich Gulf states dominate the top ranks of electricity
consumption globally, but these are really not our focus. Nor are we particularly bothered
by electricity data for most EMs – it is generally other issues that stop them escaping the
middle income trap15.
The data among high-energy consumers help explain why investors were keen to
embrace Argentina after political changes made it more investor friendly in 2015. Its
electricity output is nearly identical to rich Uruguay. They also show why Iran is potentially
so interesting; its output is similar to neighbouring Turkey. Both could be successful EMs.
15 See The Focal Point: Are we caught in a (middle income) trap, 12 September 2016
32
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Figure 31: Electricity consumption per capita, since 1960, kWh 1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Iceland 2,574 2,933 6,383 6,909 9,487 12,545 14,300 15,360 16,484 25,110 26,832 49,871 53,722 Norway 7,591 11,283 13,291 13,907 16,144 18,383 22,139 22,957 23,991 24,605 24,558 24,484 22,823 Bahrain
1,952 2,626 4,613 15,552 15,198 20,350 19,678 20,698 17,889 20,257
Qatar
2,638 3,801 9,711 10,062 9,588 9,709 12,977 14,020 13,833 14,659 Canada 5,523 6,740 8,718 9,034 10,257 12,504 14,306 15,584 15,913 16,365 16,266 15,043 14,627 Finland 1,810 2,847 4,396 4,733 5,726 7,870 9,993 11,927 12,908 14,773 15,592 15,809 14,537 Sweden 3,919 5,441 7,120 7,490 8,810 10,360 14,372 15,280 14,358 14,781 14,754 14,396 13,042 Kuwait
2,627 3,657 5,278 6,858 6,797 10,962 11,658 14,468 14,423 12,775
US
9,217 9,768 11,365 11,882 12,732 12,896 12,564 12,214 UAE
5,234 7,631 7,805 8,661 11,473 11,508 10,262 12,082
Luxembourg 4,306 5,554 7,203 7,596 8,667 9,823 10,343 10,808 12,224 13,268 13,215 12,995 10,927 Korea
280 471 859 1,243 2,202 3,621 5,597 7,411 9,256 9,918
Saudi Arabia
316 520 1,913 2,977 3,897 4,785 5,498 6,412 7,766 9,668 Australia 1,708 2,469 3,359 3,499 4,582 5,588 6,466 7,872 8,362 9,390 9,741 10,030 9,460 New Zealand 2,395 3,428 4,171 4,594 5,716 6,267 7,427 8,730 8,886 9,079 9,322 9,266 8,710 Singapore 1,076 1,623 2,544 3,227 4,658 5,742 7,233 8,320 8,323 8,584 Brunei Dar. 1,584 1,336 1,531 2,953 3,911 5,915 7,367 8,243 8,401 8,409 Japan 1,074 1,712 3,065 3,272 3,826 4,455 4,963 6,502 7,313 7,912 8,089 8,178 7,556 Belgium 1,463 2,022 2,870 3,041 3,634 4,553 5,044 5,930 6,889 7,723 7,994 7,890 7,444 Austria 1,648 2,150 2,814 2,968 3,542 4,459 4,993 5,676 5,995 6,560 7,223 7,480 7,322 Trinidad 894 960 1,582 2,234 2,539 2,960 3,788 4,943 5,957 7,135 Switzerland 2,984 3,455 4,059 4,304 4,560 5,578 6,386 6,936 6,801 7,289 7,708 7,639 7,032 Oman
13 144 585 1,376 2,051 2,433 3,013 3,790 5,304 6,884
France 1,393 1,883 2,502 2,612 3,104 4,186 4,926 5,521 6,187 6,725 7,136 7,249 6,570 Israel
2,120 2,438 2,826 3,242 3,902 4,845 5,990 5,981 6,314 6,519
Germany 1,463 2,018 3,515 3,715 4,385 5,355 5,927 6,055 5,786 6,099 6,540 6,692 6,465 Netherlands 1,277 1,804 2,796 2,983 3,602 4,164 4,352 5,016 5,499 6,279 6,647 6,739 6,409 Slovenia
4,701 4,767 5,361 6,434 5,888 6,249
Russia
6,187 4,697 4,726 5,295 5,911 6,043 Hong Kong 2,001 2,708 3,874 4,306 5,165 5,539 5,646 5,714 Estonia
4,651 3,489 3,880 4,726 5,581 5,656
Denmark 1,011 1,710 2,658 2,841 3,190 4,288 4,993 5,614 6,030 6,178 6,317 5,961 5,582 Czech Republic
3,158 3,710 4,187 4,725 5,133 5,050 5,099 5,647 5,545 5,563
Ireland 660 1,069 1,653 1,773 1,959 2,545 2,789 3,406 4,137 5,338 5,831 5,597 5,490 Puerto Rico 3,858 3,191 3,746 4,395 5,324 6,075 5,220 5,442 Spain 480 786 1,333 1,426 1,928 2,454 2,744 3,323 3,664 4,800 5,692 5,384 5,137 Italy 948 1,392 1,963 2,033 2,320 2,900 3,137 3,857 4,283 4,905 5,345 5,228 4,893 Greece 227 447 976 1,140 1,549 2,106 2,465 2,909 3,375 4,163 4,831 4,970 4,847 Slovakia
4,543 4,613 4,533 4,812 4,770
UK
4,322 4,420 4,968 5,122 5,698 5,812 5,270 4,759 Portugal 315 473 737 811 1,037 1,495 1,793 2,399 2,921 3,784 4,477 4,787 4,523 Montenegro 6,129 5,184 4,515 Malaysia
297 407 630 804 1,106 1,915 2,629 2,748 3,943 4,384
Kazakhstan
5,905 3,468 2,589 4,012 3,822 4,337 Bulgaria
2,038 2,695 3,564 4,171 4,229 3,683 3,120 3,561 3,833 4,130
Serbia
4,264 3,379 3,702 3,542 3,886 4,011 Hungary
1,026 1,452 1,568 1,974 2,514 2,984 3,182 2,800 3,022 3,520 3,601 3,873
Chile
752 727 892 971 1,194 1,712 2,433 3,029 3,197 3,846 China
266 334 484 728 933 1,685 2,776 3,844
South Africa
2,043 2,510 3,232 3,631 3,824 3,791 4,237 4,286 4,194 3,821 Croatia
2,875 2,206 2,759 3,338 3,673 3,743
Poland 809 1,120 1,619 1,740 2,313 2,713 2,826 2,865 2,690 2,844 3,030 3,402 3,657 FYR Macedonia 2,573 2,727 3,208 3,423 3,631 Suriname
3,986 3,004 3,460 3,322 2,206 2,716 2,942 3,576
Cyprus
939 974 1,347 1,722 2,369 2,615 3,198 3,860 4,386 3,529 Lithuania
3,442 1,955 1,989 2,668 3,010 3,499
Seychelles 691 884 1,271 1,494 2,040 2,436 2,932 3,454 Belarus
4,075 2,571 2,785 3,009 3,325 3,339
Bhutan
49 67 89 243 505 906 2,733 3,302 Latvia
3,124 1,797 1,894 2,559 2,963 3,267
Bosnia Herz. 2,277 938 1,556 2,012 2,882 3,143 Uruguay
701 726 967 1,048 1,229 1,550 1,998 1,952 2,740 3,073
Argentina
813 944 1,169 1,214 1,231 1,583 1,987 2,303 2,735 2,986 Ukraine
4,427 3,064 2,524 2,927 3,231 2,885
Lebanon
490 603 909 1,224 496 1,562 2,994 2,811 3,479 2,861 Iran
509 667 886 1,052 1,427 1,920 2,450 2,781
Turkey 87 137 210 232 344 464 605 868 1,152 1,554 1,918 2,379 2,776 Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital
33
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 31: Electricity consumption per capita, since 1960, kWh, continued
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Georgia
2,816 1,396 1,423 1,767 1,957 2,669 Turkmenistan 2,283 1,407 1,526 1,848 2,135 2,648 Thailand
115 176 277 385 678 1,198 1,397 1,853 2,222 2,546
Brazil
452 643 1,003 1,267 1,445 1,617 1,876 1,987 2,334 2,498 Venezuela
996 1,174 1,941 2,216 2,381 2,583 2,601 2,800 3,093 2,410
Romania
1,516 2,008 2,604 2,841 2,595 2,048 1,840 2,182 2,278 2,367 Mauritius
147 212 299 314 671 945 1,363 1,684 1,995 2,233
Panama
496 596 744 876 822 1,047 1,254 1,436 1,717 2,160 Azerbaijan
2,435 1,808 1,914 2,269 1,496 2,143
Albania
504 700 1,083 742 542 654 1,440 1,716 1,942 2,088 Mexico
483 616 824 1,004 1,097 1,308 1,647 1,814 1,868 2,036
Costa Rica 605 730 932 1,010 1,077 1,290 1,501 1,713 1,879 1,960 Armenia
2,550 948 1,170 1,396 1,629 1,842
Jordan
131 214 366 746 872 1,044 1,199 1,492 1,790 1,835 Kyrgyzstan 2,263 2,031 1,650 1,333 1,328 1,790 Mongolia
982 1,238 1,245 831 797 1,006 1,245 1,790
Egypt
192 226 352 461 631 699 920 1,199 1,471 1,644 Paraguay
79 115 240 291 470 752 841 818 1,106 1,593
Botswana 412 597 718 876 1,032 1,361 1,543 1,580 Libya
153 461 949 789 1,315 1,507 1,892 3,287 3,209 1,569
Namibia
414 938 994 1,451 1,547 1,562 Tajikistan
3,359 2,405 2,146 2,115 1,853 1,532
Dominican Rep 302 389 425 450 361 468 1,303 1,229 1,281 1,476 Vietnam
61 72 95 155 284 552 985 1,465
Tunisia
147 203 380 479 599 722 925 1,019 1,320 1,409 Ecuador
145 196 360 398 471 540 625 780 1,126 1,393
Peru
393 440 501 545 540 535 668 823 1,075 1,348 Moldova
1,658 1,545 1,949 1,626 1,298
Algeria
126 184 309 436 485 515 610 815 943 1,279 Dominica
136 303 380 573 988 1,040 1,230 1,195
Colombia
392 418 584 686 800 873 811 873 1,052 1,188 Iraq
259 365 792 1,279 1,305 1,416 1,237 834 1,144 1,180
Belize
310 361 704 818 768 1,378 1,164 1,149 Swaziland 421 481 853 1,040 982 1,116 1,144 1,123 Guyana
497 197 332 585 885 489 754 1,041
Jamaica
799 661 628 543 863 2,043 2,271 2,389 1,209 1,030 Gabon
186 383 705 1,010 901 741 840 862 906 981
Fiji
425 504 610 663 640 798 903 930 El Salvador 164 201 267 286 343 495 599 724 816 928 Honduras
127 156 209 280 363 348 490 573 626 872
Morocco
119 150 221 270 335 404 463 595 753 868 Maldives
23 64 98 197 319 504 608 796
India
91 106 130 175 247 328 357 428 591 789 Indonesia
14 21 44 77 156 253 374 476 610 786
Syria
331 722 423 685 983 1,401 1,727 745 Zambia
1,012 1,116 990 906 738 687 574 664 562 711
Bolivia
165 189 253 242 262 349 416 474 592 700 Philippines
225 300 359 333 342 381 469 523 590 667
Laos
53 64 69 69 101 179 391 636 Guatemala 117 158 244 167 199 294 328 479 516 565 Sri Lanka
57 72 95 130 153 216 260 319 457 558
Nicaragua 212 256 248 277 276 273 319 366 462 557 Mozambique
48 52 35 29 37 44 113 434 434 498
Zimbabwe
660 968 969 955 882 809 859 804 523 492 Pakistan
89 107 133 191 267 341 351 441 452 465
Papua New Guinea 335 361 368 289 351 489 443 425 Djibouti
285 337 265 255 233 285 389 406
Lesotho
- - 120 184 150 226 415 351 Equatorial Guinea 62 44 37 35 64 104 123 336 Cambodia
13 13 16 11 32 65 143 321
Ghana
310 373 421 161 323 351 330 244 278 316 S Tome and Principe 88 135 122 140 188 233 287 314 Bangladesh
10 16 17 30 44 71 95 160 225 305
Angola
75 119 53 53 48 45 70 101 201 302 Mauritania 54 54 61 64 79 148 163 287 Sudan
33 49 45 60 62 56 79 98 175 274
Myanmar
18 24 31 41 43 55 71 76 125 256 Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital
34
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 31: Electricity consumption per capita, since 1960, kWh, continued
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Cameroon
152 174 156 224 200 162 178 190 244 253 Ivory Coast
173 164 151 173 160 158 203 245
Senegal
68 77 95 96 96 101 95 151 196 217 Rep of Congo
78 107 166 127 91 112 131 180
Kenya
76 88 103 111 124 127 105 129 149 164 Togo
64 74 63 77 91 100 94 108 122 163
Afghanistan 66 82 83 40 27 39 85 141 Nigeria
28 44 64 75 83 87 71 124 132 139
Nepal
6 6 11 19 32 40 55 76 101 136 Yemen
33 38 62 76 106 105 116 160 213 116
Gambia
57 61 67 61 83 123 126 113 Malawi
61 63 70 96 98 98 107 112
Benin
11 18 28 33 35 42 58 74 99 109 DR Congo
149 146 128 108 96 88 103 94
Tanzania
59 51 54 52 56 64 89 92 Ethiopia
18 16 17 19 19 21 21 30 44 82
Guinea
75 85 76 62 78 85 79 77 Uganda
24 25 35 42 53 61 65 73
Burkina Faso 13 14 18 21 25 43 57 73 Liberia
420 310 133 126 64 57 59 62
Madagascar 44 45 46 42 46 56 52 58 Rwanda
31 28 23 27 25 21 32 55
Niger
34 38 42 34 30 34 42 52 Central African Republic 27 27 29 28 26 36 33 36 Burundi
10 18 22 23 19 22 26 30
Sierra Leone 52 40 46 20 18 13 23 22 Guinea-Bissau 15 14 35 38 22 20 18 18 Chad
9 9 13 11 10 11 15 14
Eritrea
47 48 57 59
Note: We excluded a number of islands Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital
What interests us most are the countries with consumption that is below 2,000 kWh per
capita.
35
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Countries that can’t industrialise yet – less than 300 kWh per capita
If we look at the countries that can’t industrialise, using the 300 kWh level cited above, the
key FMs are Ivory Coast, Senegal, Kenya and Nigeria. Bangladesh is barely over that
level. Of these, only Kenya has the literacy rate needed to industrialise, but it has to
double electricity output. The Kenyatta government had promised to quadruple electricity
output over the past five years16, but ended up scaling this back to 30% and instead
investing more in railways. Our data imply electricity would have been the better focus.
Figure 32: Kenya needs to double electricity to industrialise, kWh per capita
Source: EIA, IEA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
The Korean model implies that electricity development should be financed by foreign
borrowing. Korea used this to help fund low interest rate loans to households who would
then pay for getting access to the electricity network. The government let households pay
for electrification.
Ivory Coast needs a 25% rise in electricity output, and Senegal a 50% rise, with which
manufacturing could perhaps reach Bangladeshi levels (of 18% of GDP). So today, 4-5%
GDP growth looks more plausible in the coming 5-15 years than the 6-10% rates they
have been recording.
Meanwhile, southern Nigeria might echo Bangladesh, but only if electricity consumption
is more than doubled. Sadly, that has been a goal Nigeria has been unable to reach
despite privatisation in 2013-201417. Hopefully, the new measures being introduced this
year will make a difference18 but it would be optimistic to assume Nigeria can double
output by 2020-2025. It therefore can sustain 4-5% growth but 7-8% sustainable growth is
probably a post-2025 step change, coinciding with adult literacy topping 70%. Do note our
emphasis on ‘sustainable’. Rising oil prices can of course lift growth to the high single-
digits for a few years, even without a big increase in electricity.
Nigeria has neither the electricity, nor the adult literacy rate, required to industrialise – but
localised success is possible in Lagos (which has the literacy and is expanding the electricity).
16 See page 6 of Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Investment-led growth is an ugly duckling, 20 October 2016 17 See Nigeria power sector reform: Progress at last, 17 January 2012 18 See Nigeria: Notes from Abuja – Things are looking up, 15 February 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
36
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 33: Nigeria has neither the electricity, nor the adult literacy rate, required to industrialise - but localised success is possible in Lagos (which has the literacy and is expanding the electricity), kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
Among other countries we pay attention to, Ethiopia hopes to quadruple power
generation by the early 2020s, which would push just it over the 300 kWh threshold if the
population was not rising. Its literacy level (49%) and electricity consumption are so low
that manufacturing is just 4% of GDP in 2016 (just eight countries globally have a smaller
manufacturing sector). Its best-case scenario is to echo Bangladesh or China (lagged by
40 or more years), sustaining high growth on the back of very high investment. Sudan at
59% has a similar literacy rate to Nigeria, so should not be able to industrialise for at least
a decade, and electricity output is also limited. Cameroon is in a better state thanks to a
claimed literacy rate of 75%.
For Tanzania19 and Uganda20, electricity output also has to quadruple. Similar to Ethiopia
they share the high investment to GDP ratio that has resulted in high growth elsewhere.
Despite their high literacy rates, industrialisation looks out of reach on a five-year horizon.
19 Tanzania plans to more than treble generation capacity from 1,500 MW to 5,000 MW 20 For more on Uganda, click here
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
37
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Countries that could industrialise – 300-500 kWh / capita
There are relatively few countries in this range. Of those that portfolio investors look at,
we think only Cambodia and Ghana can industrialise. Both have adult literacy rates
above 70% and both have electricity consumption above 300 kWh (but only just).
Cambodia’s advantage is cheap labour and its proximity to the Thai manufacturing chain.
Ghana’s advantage is new leadership and its belief in a ‘one factory, one village’ model
that now has the preconditions in place to be a realistic goal.
Figure 34: Ghana has the adult literacy, and just enough electricity, to industrialise, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
Neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh have the literacy rate required to take advantage of
their reasonable electricity supply. Bangladesh is growing faster (6-7%) than we’d expect,
presumably because of its high investment rate. Pakistan is now growing at the 4-5% rate
we think is consistent with its literacy rate. A better growth rate would require a substantial
rise of investment, perhaps via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. In
both countries, higher literacy areas (eg Southern Bangladesh or Punjab), can outperform
in terms of industrialisation.
Figure 35: Pakistan now has the electricity to industrialise, but not the necessary literacy rate, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
Zimbabwe is a special case. It had both high literacy rates and good electricity supply
already in the 1980s, and it was an industrial economy at that time. But poor policy choices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
38
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
saw the country de-industrialise in the 1990s. It is now particularly well placed to thrive,
given the right economic policies. We await this summer’s elections with a lot of interest21.
Figure 36: Interestingly, Zimbabwe did industrialise – but policy mistakes de-industrialised the country, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
Mozambique does not have the literacy needed to industrialise, and we suspect it will
not. It should be considered next to other energy exporters such as Gabon, Equatorial
Guinea, Angola, Algeria and the Gulf states.
As a case study of success, Mauritius is interesting. Electricity consumption was stuck
around 300 kWh per capita from 1979-1984, then jumped to over 400 kWh by 1988 and
over 700 kWh by 1991. Manufacturing which was 15% of value-added in 1979, topped
20% in 1985 and 25% by 1988.
Figure 37: A country like Ghana is now at a similar place to Mauritius in the 1980s, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
Countries that are industrialising (or soon will) – 500-1,000 kWh per capita
India bulls should be pleased to note that this country can industrialise because its adult
literacy rate reached 72% in 2015. Coincidentally, electricity consumption surpassed the
500 kWh threshold this decade, and reached 789 kWh in 2015. The ‘Made in India’
campaign is perfectly timed. Indonesia is also well placed on both fronts. The Philippines
21 See Zimbabwe trip notes: Renewed optimism, 13 March 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
39
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
had the literacy to industrialise since the 1980s, but never had the electricity supply then. It
finally got electricity consumption above 500 kWh in 2005. We think India, Indonesia and the
Philippines should each be able to develop a stronger manufacturing base.
Figure 38: India finally has the literacy and electricity levels it needs for ‘Made in India’, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
The two FM candidates to industrialise are Morocco and Sri Lanka. Both have literacy
above 70% and sufficient electricity. We are positive on this story for both22. GDP growth
could do much better than the 3-5% we see recorded in either.
Figure 39: We think Morocco can deliver a manufacturing renaissance, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
Figure 40: Sri Lanka also meets the pre-conditions to industrialise, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
22 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Morocco’s ‘first world’ problems, 29 February 2016, and No take-off without education, 27 October 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
40
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
In SSA, Zambia has what is necessary to grow at a rapid rate. In fact, it had more
electricity per capita back in the 1980s, but insufficient literacy. Now it has both and a high
investment/GDP ratio. Its challenges might be wages kept high by copper and (via a
strong currency), high interest rates and its geography. Gabon is different because it is an
oil exporter.
Laos looks very interesting too, with more electricity than Cambodia, 80% literacy and
useful proximity to Thailand and Vietnam.
Countries that have industrialised – 1,000-1,500 kWh per capita
Four countries caught our attention in this range.
Colombia had a manufacturing sector above 20% of GDP throughout the 1970s and
1980s, but it has fallen to around 13-14% of GDP since 2010. It has the literacy and
electricity to do better and a cheap currency to boot.
Vietnam is unsurprisingly a winner23. Ex-communist countries tend to be good at
education and electricity, and Vietnam scores very highly on both. It might even be a
beneficiary of US/China trade problems, if Chinese exporters move across the border to
avoid US import tariffs.
Figure 41: China is roughly 40 years behind Japan, and Vietnam is roughly five years behind China
Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital
Tunisia is potentially similar to Vietnam, with high literacy and electricity consumption at
virtually the same level. This fits with our thesis that 2020s’ industrialisation could be a
theme lifting growth to an above-trend 3-4% in a base-case scenario and 5-6% in a more
positive scenario24.
23 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man, Post-communist reform and Vietnam, 1 December 2015 24 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Tunisia, outperforming in the 2020s, 25 January 2018
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Germany (1960+) China (2000+) Japan (1960+) Vietnam (2005+)
41
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 42: Tunisia could see manufacturing pick up again, on the back of good literacy and electricity data, kWh per capita
Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital
We don’t focus on it, but we think Jamaica’s high electricity output is interesting.
High electricity – 1500 kWh and above
In this group are countries that range from Mauritius, which has already gone through
industrialisation and come out the other side, to Egypt, which until 2010 did not have the
adult literacy required for industrialisation. Now it does, and we think industrialisation will
be Egypt’s theme in the 2020s25.
LatAm has decent electricity provision today, but back in 1971, Brazil at 452 kWh or
Mexico at 483 kWh, were where many Frontier countries are today. They crossed the
1,000 kWh threshold in the 1980s.
Price of electricity
We also show some graphs of electricity prices, taking the OECD average of USc10 for
industry and USc16 for households as a baseline. We assume low-to-middle income
countries should not be paying much more than this, as the key inputs should either be
similar (oil, gas, solar, etc) or less (wages for staff) than in DMs.
Figure 43: OECD countries have an average electricity price of USc10 per kWh for industry
Source: OECD
25 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Egypt: 100 million and ready for take-off, 8 March 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA
1012
9 9 10 912
107 8 8
117
14
68
3
8
128 7
5
1411
5
15
2
75
16 17 1613
19
13
24
12
6
1618
13 13
33
1311
5
9
15
57 6
1614
18
6
11
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OE
CD
Chi
le
Cze
chia
Est
onia
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Kor
ea
Mex
ico
Pol
and
Slo
veni
a
Tur
key
US
Ger
man
y
Bra
zil (
1998
)
Bul
garia
(20
10)
Chi
na (
96/9
7)
Tai
wan
(20
10)
Cro
atia
(20
10)
Indi
a (2
000-
05)
Indo
nesi
a (2
010)
Kaz
akhs
tan
(201
0)
Lith
uani
a (2
010)
Rom
ania
(20
10)
Rus
sia
(201
0)
Sin
gapo
re (
2010
)
SA
(20
06)
Tha
iland
(20
10)
Ven
ezue
la (
1999
)
Electricity prices per kWh, 2016 or specified dates, in US cents via OECD
Industry Household
42
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Having a cheap electricity price does not mean a country will industrialise, as Middle
Eastern countries demonstrate. We include South Asian countries in the same chart.
Figure 44: MENA electricity prices for households in 2014 (note Egypt’s prices have since been raised significantly)
Source: World Bank via the Arab Union of Electricity (2014) for MENA countries, World Bank for south Asia but also Bangladesh and Sri Lanka power company data
There is plenty of debate about whether electricity prices should be subsidised in lower
income countries, to make it more affordable for industry and/or voters/consumers. What
we can see is that a subsidised price in Nigeria (USc6 per kWh) has under-priced
electricity and this could be one reason why supply is so poor. It is interesting to note that
cheap power in Zambia has not helped deliver industrialisation which we attribute to sub-
70% adult literacy before 2010. Ethiopia may be in a similar situation in the coming 5-10
years. Electricity prices in Kenya and Uganda are more expensive than Ghana, but might
be needed to boost future supply. Purchasing electricity from Ethiopia may be a sensible
economic response for Kenya and Uganda.
A useful World Bank paper shows that virtually every SSA country has a loss-making
electricity sector, which may explain why there is not much electricity26. It does suggest
that low prices are not the solution.
Figure 45: Electricity prices in Africa
Note: Egypt's figure is from an unreliable source
Source: World Bank except for Egypt
26 See our twitter link to the relevant graph
5
1
31
2 1
73
11
3 2 1
10
16
3
9 84
7
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Alg
eria
Bah
rain
Djib
outi
Egy
pt
Iraq
Jord
an
Leba
non
Mor
occo
Om
an
Qat
ar
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Tun
isia
Wes
t Ban
k
Yem
en
Indi
a (2
00-4
00)
Pak
ista
n (1
00-3
00
Ban
glad
esh
(101
-400
)
Sri
Lank
a (6
1-90
)
Sri
Lank
a (1
80+
)
Avg domestic tariff, US cents per kWh, assuming 250 kWh of consumption per month
26 2523 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 17
15 14 14 1412 12 11 11 11 11
9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Libe
ria
Cap
e V
erde
Sey
chel
les
Sie
rra
Leon
e
Tog
o
Rw
anda B
F
Ben
in
Sen
egal
Gab
on Mal
i
Mau
ritiu
s
Mau
ritan
ia
Gam
bia
Uga
nda
Ken
ya
ST
P
Nig
er
Tan
zani
a
Com
oros
Sw
azi
Ivor
y C
oast
CA
R
Cam
eroo
n
Gha
na
Mad
agas
car
Rep
Con
Mal
awi
Gui
nea
Bot
swan
a
Zim
babw
e
Moz
ambi
que
Bur
undi
Nig
eria SA
Egy
pt*
Leso
tho
Sud
an
Zam
bia
Eth
iopi
aElectricity price in 2014, in US cents per kWh
43
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Can high investment/GDP compensate for low electricity
Our base assumption is that countries cannot grow fast and sustainably without literacy
and electricity. But there are glaring exceptions. Ethiopia and Bangladesh are two
examples where high growth has been sustained for many years despite shortages on
both fronts.
Within EM, this is only really an issue for Pakistan (the rest of EM meet the education and
electricity criteria). The latest IMF estimates suggest it is not investing enough to
compensate for the shortfall in human capital. Even CPEC is not expected to lift the
investment level above 17% of GDP by 2023. India, by contrast, has the necessary
education and electricity data, but also has a very high investment ratio.
Figure 46: MSCI EM countries (ex-Qatar). Pakistan is not investing enough to grow at 6-9% sustainably
Source: IMF
In MSCI Frontier however, Bangladesh is investing so much that this might explain why it
can grow so fast despite having adult literacy at around 60%. Note this is roughly the
same literacy as Nigeria, which invests just 13% of GDP, and does not grow as fast.
Kenya might have high literacy, but it too needs to boost investment significantly. Ivory
Coast is worse on education, better on investment but not high enough. Only Senegal
crosses the 25% of GDP threshold which seems to make a big difference when countries
try to escape the middle-income trap (and we assume makes a big difference at lower
income levels too).
Figure 47: MSCI FM and beyond frontier Gulf and CIS countries – investment/GDP ratios
Source: IMF
15
22
44
2326
1512
22
3233
31
2523
16
2125
20
24
1920
23
31
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Chi
na
Col
ombi
a
Cze
chia
Egy
pt
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Indi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Kor
ea
Mal
aysi
a
Mex
ico
Pak
ista
n
Per
u
Phi
lippi
nes
Pol
and
Rus
sia
SA
Tai
wan
Tha
iland
Tur
key
UA
E
Investment to GDP ratio, 2017
19
25
31
19
25
20 21
27
17
24
1721
34
13
34
25 26
19 19
32
22
27
21 21
25
31
36
28
21 21
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Arg
entin
a
Bah
rain
Ban
glad
esh
Cro
atia
Est
onia
Jord
an
Ivor
y C
oast
Kaz
akhs
tan
Ken
ya
Kuw
ait
Lith
uani
a
Mau
ritiu
s
Mor
occo
Nig
eria
Om
an
Rom
ania
Sen
egal
Ser
bia
Slo
veni
a
Sri
Lank
a
Tun
isia
Vie
tnam
Arm
enia
Aze
rbai
jan
Bel
arus
Geo
rgia
Iran
Sau
di A
rabi
a
Taj
ikis
tan
Ukr
aine
Uzb
ekis
tan
2017
44
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Within Africa, a number of other credits we follow have high investment/GDP ratios of
25% and above or are close to it. Only Senegal in the EM or FM spaces does. Other
equity markets that might be worth a look include Botswana and Namibia, Rwanda,
Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, in our view. Within the debt market space, these figures
might justify more bullish growth forecasts in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Republic
of Congo (despite their defaults), Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia.
We think what investors should be demanding is higher investment in Egypt, Ghana, Ivory
Coast, Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Within this group, prospects look best to us in
Egypt, Ghana and Zimbabwe, given good literacy and (good enough) electricity data.
Kenya looks better placed than Ivory Coast due to better literacy. The medium term
seems toughest for Nigeria, which lacks literacy, electricity or investment, although the
south, and Lagos in particular, could outperform the country as a whole.
Figure 48: Within Africa, the beyond FM equity and debt markets often carry the advantage of high investment ratios, %
Source: IMF
49
26 28 28
18
7
38
26
13
21 21
36
1215
7 8
39
3228
14
22
9
2117
32
40
1614
19
37
21
34
44
23
37
13
24 2319
2631
19
8
32
13 12
2823 22
25
42
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Alg
eria
Ang
ola
Ben
inB
otsw
ana
Bur
kina
Fas
oB
urun
diC
abo
Ver
deC
amer
oon
CA
RC
had
Com
oros
Djib
outi
DR
Con
goE
gypt
Eq
Gui
nea
Erit
rea
Eth
iopi
aG
abon
Gam
bia
Gha
naG
uine
aG
uine
a-B
issa
uIv
ory
Coa
stK
enya
Leso
tho
Liby
aM
adag
asca
rM
alaw
iM
ali
Mau
ritan
iaM
aurit
ius
Mor
occo
Moz
ambi
que
Nam
ibia
Nig
erN
iger
iaR
ep o
f Con
goR
wan
da SA
Sen
egal
Sey
chel
les
Sie
rra
Leon
eS
outh
Sud
anS
TP
Sud
anS
waz
iland
Tan
zani
aT
ogo
Tun
isia
Uga
nda
Zam
bia
Zim
babw
e
Investment to GDP ratio in 2017EM in blueFM in greenOther debt or equity markets in yellow
45
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Conclusion
We conclude in this section with a table bringing all of this altogether. We show electricity
per head, with 500 kWh per capita or more seen as good, and 300 kWh or less as bad.
We show adult literacy where over 80% means industrialisation can certainly happen, and
sub-70% meaning it cannot. Lastly, we show investment/GDP where 25% or above is
clearly good, and under 20% is bad.
Countries on the left have mostly got all the advantages they need to do well. Investors
will have to pick and choose among countries on the right, taking advantage of good
tailwinds to enter and exit investments.
Figure 49: Concluding table incorporating kWh per capita (2015), adult literacy (2015) and investment / GDP (2017) – green is good, red is bad
kWh per capita
Adult literacy
Investment/ GDP
Manufacturing, value added
% of GDP (2016)
Kwh per capita
Adult literacy
Investment/ GDP
Manufacturing, value added
% of GDP (2016)
Armenia 1,842 100 21 10 Mozambique 498 59 44 10 Jordan 1,835 98 20 18 Zimbabwe 492 87 20 10 Egypt 1,644 76 15 17 Pakistan 465 56 16 13 Namibia 1,562 91 23 12 Papua New Guinea 425 63 N/A 2*** Tajikistan 1,532 100 21 11* Cambodia 321 78 22 17 Vietnam 1,465 95 27 16 Ghana 316 77 14 6 Tunisia 1,409 81 22 17 Bangladesh 305 61 31 18 Moldova 1,298 99 22 14 Angola 302 71 26 N/A Colombia 1,188 95 23 13 Sudan 274 59 13 N/A Iraq 1,180 80 N/A 2 Cameroon 253 75 26 13** Jamaica 1,030 88 20 9 Ivory Coast 245 43 21 14 Gabon 981 83 32 3** Senegal 217 56 26 14*** Morocco 868 72 34 18 Rep of Congo 180 79 24 8 India 789 72 32 17 Kenya 164 78 17 10 Indonesia 786 95 33 21 Nigeria 139 60 13 9 Zambia 711 85 42 8 Tanzania 92 80 28 6 Philippines 667 97 25 20 Ethiopia 82 49 39 4 Laos 636 80 N/A 9 Uganda 73 74 25 9 Sri Lanka 558 93 32 17 Rwanda 55 71 23 6 *2013 **2015 ***2014
Source: EIA, IEA, UN, IMF
We found out in 2017 that education was a pre-condition for industrialisation or high
sustainable growth, but not a cause of it. There were enough examples around the world,
such as the Philippines or Zimbabwe, to show adult literacy does not always deliver
wealth. What we have found out in 2018 is that electricity is also a pre-condition for
industrialisation or high growth. Countries need to achieve about 300 kWh of electricity
consumption per capita before they can take-off. The exceptions seem to come from
countries that achieve investment/GDP ratios above 25%; that level appears to be
enough to outweigh shortfalls in education or electricity.
The education and electricity data support our thesis that North Africa should do very well
in the coming decade, after weaknesses in education held it back from growing fast
before 2000-2010. The investment/GDP ratio tells us that Morocco is better placed (for
now at least) than Tunisia or Egypt, a fact which may already be reflected in its wages
being double that of Tunisia and four times that of Egypt.
In South Asia, the big winners are India and Sri Lanka, which meet key education and
electricity criteria now, but also have very high investment. We are bullish on both. Neither
Bangladesh nor Pakistan meet the education criteria at the national level (regional stories
can be better), but Bangladesh (just) and Pakistan (comfortably) have sufficient electricity
to grow fast. But on investment, Bangladesh is far ahead of Pakistan, which we think
partly explains why it has produced better growth over the past decade. We would turn
46
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
more bullish on Pakistan relative to Bangladesh, if investment rises by much more than
the IMF expects.
Elsewhere in Asia, it might surprise nobody at all that we are bullish on the growth outlook
in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, and have high hopes for Cambodia and
Laos. Each look good on the electricity metrics we have examined here.
Elsewhere in SSA (ex-SA), Zambia looks to us at least as well placed as India or Sri Lanka,
with good literacy, cheap, plentiful electricity and a very high investment rate. A little like
Zimbabwe in the 2000s, it would require very bad policy choices to make a mess of this
inheritance. Zimbabwe itself could be a big winner in the coming years, if the right policy
choices are made after the July 2018 elections, and the investment/GDP ratio is hiked.
Next in line is probably Ghana. It has good enough literacy and good enough electricity
(just) to do well. Investment is low and needs to be raised to maximise its chances of
success.
Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania do not look as strong based on these measures,
in our view. Education is good in each of them, and the breadth of adult literacy has risen
so much in the past decade that industrialisation is theoretically possible. But electricity
supply needs to at least double to allow industrialisation. Investment is highest in
Tanzania, supporting a good growth outcome despite this electricity shortfall, and is pretty
good in Uganda too, is nearly high enough in Rwanda, but remains too low in Kenya. We
think the Kenyan authorities might do well to revisit those earlier plans to quadruple
electricity output.
Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria have neither the education nor the electricity output
data that seem necessary to sustain strong 6-9% growth in the coming 5-10 years. Bank
lending in the Francophone countries can support growth for a few years, but risks
producing a C/A problem in the medium term. We think good investment figures in
Senegal make this the easier country of the three to favour. We do see room for the south
of Nigeria, and particularly Lagos, to outperform relative to the rest of the country.
Ethiopia is similar on the education and electricity metrics, but greatly outperforms on the
investment side, which may allow it to outperform the West Africans on growth.
Mozambique is apparently better than Ethiopia on all these metrics, and Angola beats this
group on literacy. Our problem with all three countries is the lack of transparency, from the
external debt burden to the exchange rate to their fiscal policy. Gabon is not surprisingly
(when per capita GDP is considered) better than all of this group on every measure.
We should add one final caveat. Manufacturing could still double as a share of GDP in a
number of Frontier and African countries in coming years, but not cross the 20% threshold
that we think requires 70-80% adult literacy and electricity consumption of 300 kWh. So
manufacturing might outperform GDP, even if it cannot grow sufficiently fast to push GDP
to a sustainable 7-8% annual growth rate.
47
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
Figure 50: Map of Africa by population size, 2016 (IMF) (each box is 1mn people) and electricity consumption in 2015 (kwh per capita via the IEA and EIA) for Africa and other frontier markets (top right)
Source: IMF, IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital
Other Frontier
Argentina
Tunisia Libya Egypt Bangladesh
Morocco Algeria
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Niger
Vietnam
W.S Mauritania
Mali Chad Sudan Papua New Guinea
Senegal
S Eritrea
C.V Gambia Burkina Faso Z Kat J Y Djib.
B
G-B K Kan B G
Ghana A
Guinea N Kad P T
South Sudan
Cote D'Ivoire Nigeria B Somalia
Sierra Leone Kw FCT N C A R Ethipoia
Benin
Liberia Togo Ko En Eb
C
Oy Ek An
Os On I Ab
Og Ed B R Ak
L D Uganda
Kenya
Cameroon
1 box = 1 million people DRC
Rwanda
Eq.G
LEGEND STP Gab. Rep Congo Tanzania
Burundi Seychelles
1000+
500-1000
300-500
200-300 Malawi
200-
No data
Mozambique
Angola Zambia
Zimbabwe Madagascar
Bts. Mrt.
Nmb
Swz.
Lesotho
South Africa
51Figure 51: Credit ratings AGO Figure 52: Consensus forecasts Figure 55: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.8 2.0Moody's B3 Apr-18 (B2) = CPI (%) 28.0 14.8S&P B- Aug-17 (B) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -3.5 -2.2Fitch B Sep-16 (B+) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -3.9 -4.1Local currencyMoody's B3 Apr-18 (B2) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Aug-17 (B) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Sep-16 (B+) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 53: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 56: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$ANGOL 9 ½ 12/11/25 1,500 113.60 9.50 5.3 7.1 416.7 QJ6558358
Figure 57: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 54: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 11 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 13
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 45% EU 27%Euro area 22% China 22%US 8% US 7%Japan 1% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 9% Korea 11% Figure 58: CPI vs policy rateSouth Africa 4% UK 4%Taiwan 4% South Africa 4%UK 3% Brazil 4%Indonesia 2% Malaysia 3%
Product ProductFuels 97% Machinery and transport 39%Food items 0% Other machinery/transport 34%Agricultural raw materials 0% Other manufactures 27%
Food items 20%Chemicals 7%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Angola
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1011121314
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Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
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r-18
Angola 2025 $ bond US generic 10y YtM
8010012014016018020022024060
80100120140160180200220240260280300
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AOA vs $ AOA vs EURAngola REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
2
6
10
14
18
22
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
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Angola 3M yield index
51015202530354045
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Angola CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
48
Figure 59: Angola key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 175 (182) - Weak Corruption Rank: 167 (164) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 23.2 13.8 2.4 3.5 3.9 5.2 6.8 4.7 3.0 -0.8 0.7 2.2 2.4Investment (% GDP) 25.7 30.8 42.8 28.2 26.4 26.7 26.1 27.5 34.5 26.9 26.5 24.9 26.5Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 4.6 6.3 6.0 7.6 9.8 10.9 12.1 12.5 12.3 15.6 20.6 29.2 34.5Nominal GDP ($bn) 60.4 84.2 75.5 82.5 104 114 125 127 103 95 124 119 121Population (mn) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.0 29.9GDP per capita ($) 2,883 3,898 3,394 3,602 4,412 4,687 4,989 4,914 3,863 3,485 4,408 4,115 4,052Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.3 na naLending/GDP (%) 10.6 12.7 21.5 20.2 20.2 22.5 23.4 22.9 27.2 21.1 15.8 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 43.2 39.4 32.7 37.3 39.0 38.8 32.8 24.5 24.5 21.8 22.0 22.7 26.4PricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.2 12.5 13.7 14.5 13.5 10.3 8.8 7.3 10.3 32.4 31.7 27.9 17.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.8 13.2 14.0 15.3 11.4 9.0 7.7 7.5 14.3 41.9 26.3 24.6 15.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 4.7 -4.5 -7.4 3.4 8.7 4.6 -0.3 -6.6 -3.3 -4.8 -5.6 -1.7 -2.2Primary government balance 5.8 -2.5 -5.6 4.6 9.6 5.6 0.5 -5.4 -1.3 -1.8 -2.3 2.5 2.0Total public debt (% of GDP) 16.1 16.6 22.7 44.3 33.8 29.9 32.9 40.7 64.6 79.8 65.3 73.0 71.6External indicatorsExports ($bn) 33 34.6 64.3 39.8 52.2 66.3 70.7 67.3 59.1 32.7 23.8 30.3 na naImports ($bn) 7 17.3 26.9 23.9 18.2 20.8 29.0 26.8 28.8 16.8 11.1 12.1 na naTrade balance ($bn) 17.4 37.4 15.9 34.1 45.5 41.6 40.5 30.3 16.0 12.7 18.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 28.7 44.4 21.0 41.3 43.7 36.6 32.4 23.9 15.6 13.3 14.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 10.6 7.2 -7.6 7.5 13.1 13.9 8.3 -3.7 -10.3 -4.8 -5.5 -2.6 -0.1Current account balance (% of GDP) 17.5 8.5 -10.0 9.1 12.6 12.2 6.7 -3.0 -10.0 -5.1 -4.5 -2.2 -0.1Net FDI ($bn) -0.9 1.7 2.2 -3.2 -3.0 -6.9 -7.1 1.9 8.7 14.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -1.5 2.0 2.9 -3.9 -2.9 -6.1 -5.7 1.5 8.5 15.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 16.0 10.5 -7.1 5.2 9.7 6.1 1.0 -1.4 -1.6 10.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 6 86 -38 31 27 7 -5 -12 -45 -27 27 na naImports (% YoY, value) 161 56 -11 -24 15 40 -8 7 -42 -34 9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 11.2 17.9 13.7 19.7 28.8 33.4 32.8 28.1 23.8 23.7 17.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.8 8.0 6.9 13.1 16.6 13.8 14.7 11.7 17.0 25.6 17.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 8 15 16 17 19 21 23 22 26 33 32 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 17 21 20 18 18 19 18 25 34 26 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 24 23 40 32 28 29 35 38 80 138 106 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 8 5 9 6 5 5 7 7 12 11 9 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 25 18 26 16 11 11 15 14 16 11 16 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 2 4 2 3 4 5 6 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 2 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 3 9 4 4 6 7 11 17 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 40 9 26 12 10 13 15 23 23 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na 10.3 9.3 9.0 11.0 16.0 18.0 18.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 49.3 104 21.5 5.1 37.1 4.9 14.1 16.2 11.8 14.1 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 105 110 111 122 131 123 128 131 133 181 187 303 357
Exchange rate ($) annual average 77 75 79 92 94 95 97 98 120 164 166 244 284
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - Ba2 B1 B1 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B- B- naFitch - - - - B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Angola
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
49
Argentina 202 ARG 213 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 60: Argentina key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B+/B EODB Rank: 117 (116) - Middle Corruption Rank: 85 (95) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 47 (45) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.0 4.1 -5.9 10.1 6.0 -1.0 2.4 -2.5 2.7 -1.8 2.9 2.0 3.2 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 20.1 19.6 16.1 17.7 18.4 16.5 17.3 17.3 17.1 17.0 19.1 17.4 17.4 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 8.5 7.9 8.7 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.3 na 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.5 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 897 1,150 1,248 1,662 2,179 2,638 3,348 4,579 5,955 8,189 10,558 13,012 15,484 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 288 364 335 425 528 580 611 564 642 554 638 626 660 NGDPD
Population (mn) 39.4 39.7 40.1 40.8 41.3 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 LP
GDP per capita ($) 7,316 9,147 8,338 10,413 12,788 13,890 14,489 13,209 14,895 12,709 14,467 14,044 14,640 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 113 136 150 204 295 387 508 617 838 1,088 1,640 2,164 2,857Lending/GDP (%) 12.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 13.5 14.7 15.2 13.5 14.1 13.3 15.5 16.6 18.5Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.2 21.1 18.2 17.3 17.4 16.1 15.2 15.6 14.3 14.4 14.2 12.3 11.9 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.8 8.6 6.3 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 na na na 25.7 22.7 15.4 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.5 7.2 7.7 10.9 9.5 10.8 10.9 23.9 na na 24.8 19.2 13.6 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.1 0.2 -2.6 -1.4 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 -4.3 -5.8 -6.4 -6.5 -5.5 -4.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 1.7 1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.6 -3.5 -4.4 -4.7 -4.5 -3.5 -2.4 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 61.0 52.6 53.8 42.0 37.5 38.9 41.7 43.6 55.1 53.3 52.6 54.1 52.7 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 47 56.0 70.0 55.6 67.4 82.1 78.6 74.3 67.4 56.7 57.6 57.5 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 34 44.5 57.4 38.4 55.9 72.5 68.4 74.0 65.2 59.7 59.5 67.5 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 11.5 12.6 17.2 11.5 9.6 10.2 0.3 2.2 -3.1 -1.9 -10.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4.0 3.5 5.1 2.7 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 6.0 5.4 7.3 -1.6 -5.3 -2.1 -13.1 -9.2 -17.6 -14.7 -30.8 -31.9 -36.4 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.1 1.5 2.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 -2.1 -1.6 -2.7 -2.7 -4.8 -5.1 -5.5 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 6.5 9.7 4.0 11.3 10.8 15.3 9.8 5.1 11.7 5.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 2.7 1.2 2.7 2.1 2.6 1.6 0.9 1.8 1.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 4.2 3.4 2.3 1.0 2.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 20 25 -21 21 22 -4 -5 -9 -16 2 0 na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 29 -33 46 30 -6 8 -12 -8 0 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 44.7 44.9 46.1 49.7 43.2 39.9 28.1 29.0 23.4 36.3 53.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 12.0 9.4 14.4 10.7 7.2 7.0 4.6 5.3 4.7 7.3 9.4 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 124 125 120 132 144 145 144 146 171 181 233 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 43 34 36 31 27 25 24 26 27 33 37 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 222 178 215 196 175 185 193 217 301 314 405 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 28 33 30 30 40 38 37 29 54 36 54 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 9 9 7 8 7 6 5 8 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 49 47 53 45 49 48 50 43 96 63 94 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 62 73 64 61 93 95 133 100 232 100 102 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 9 10 15 16 16 13 15 17 18 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 16 14 27 23 19 17 21 25 31 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 20 21 32 31 37 33 55 57 76 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 10.8 10.0 8.5 10.5 7.5 12.8 33.0 28.0 33.0 24.8 28.8 30.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.4 14.0 15.4 37.7 24.7 31.6 25.5 28.3 37.3 37.5 28.1 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.8 5.9 7.3 10.8 10.3 16.4 18.7 25.8 29.4
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.6 5.5 8.1 9.3 14.8 16.6 20.8 23.5
Credit rating history LatestMoody's B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 Ca Ca Ca B3 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B- B- B B B- CCC+ Sdu Sdu B- B+ B+ naFitch RD RD RD B B CC CC RD RD B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
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50
61Figure 61: Credit ratings ARM Figure 62: Consensus forecasts Figure 65: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 3.8 3.9Moody's B1 Mar-16 + (Ba3) CPI (%) na naS&P - - na - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B+ Jan-15 + (BB-) Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B1 Mar-16 + (Ba3) FX vs $, YE na naS&P - - na - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B+ Jan-15 + (BB-) Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 63: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 66: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$ARMEN 6 09/30/20 500 102.71 6.00 2.2 4.8 202.9 EJ8472569ARMEN 7.15 03/26/25 500 108.29 7.15 5.4 5.7 275.1 EK8187271CorporateARBANK 12 07/29/20 100 100.00 12.00 1.3 10.7 718.1 UV3439238
Figure 67: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 64: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 1.8 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 3.2
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 20% EU 19%China 11% China 10%US 4% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesRussia 15% Russia 29% Figure 68: CPI vs policy rateIraq 9% Iran 6%Georgia 8% Turkey 4%Canada 8% Ukraine 4%Bulgaria 5% Georgia 2%
Product ProductFood items 28% Other manufactures 23%Other ores and metals 28% Food items 21%Beverages and Tobacco 21% Machinery and transport 20%Other manufactures 16% Other machinery/transport 14%Non-Ferrous Metals 10% Fuels 14%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Armenia
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6
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7
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Armenia 2025 $ bond US generic 10y YtM
60
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11010
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410
610
810
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AMD vs $ AMD vs EURArmenia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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12
22
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Armenia 3M auction yield Armenia 1Y auction yieldArmenia 5Y auction yield Armenia 10Y auction yield
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.0
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Armenia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 69: Armenia key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/-/B+ EODB Rank: 47 (38) - Strong Corruption Rank: 107 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 13.7 6.9 -14.2 2.2 4.7 7.1 3.3 3.6 3.3 0.3 7.5 3.4 3.5Investment (% GDP) 38.2 43.8 33.8 29.4 27.0 22.8 20.7 20.8 20.9 19.5 20.8 21.9 22.6Unemployment rate year-end (%) 28.7 16.4 18.7 19.0 18.4 17.3 16.2 17.6 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.6Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,149 3,568 3,142 3,460 3,778 4,266 4,556 4,829 5,044 5,080 5,574 5,998 6,456Nominal GDP ($bn) 9.2 11.7 8.6 9.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 10.6 10.6 11.5 12.0 12.7Population (mn) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0GDP per capita ($) 3,079 3,913 2,912 3,122 3,417 3,576 3,732 3,889 3,529 3,535 3,861 4,022 4,244Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 428 692 779 982 1,333 1,701 1,920 2,358 2,295 0 na na naLending/GDP (%) 13.6 19.4 24.8 28.4 35.3 39.9 42.1 48.8 45.5 0.0 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 30.8 29.6 17.3 15.8 16.6 12.8 13.4 13.2 18.4 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.8PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.6 9.0 3.5 7.3 7.7 2.5 5.8 3.0 3.7 -1.4 0.9 3.5 4.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.7 5.3 6.7 8.5 4.7 3.2 5.6 4.6 -0.1 -1.1 2.6 4.0 4.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.3 -1.8 -7.7 -5.0 -2.9 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -4.8 -5.6 -4.8 -2.6 -1.7Primary government balance -2.0 -1.5 -7.2 -4.1 -1.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -3.4 -3.7 -2.6 -0.3 0.5Total public debt (% of GDP) 14.2 14.6 34.1 33.7 35.7 35.6 36.2 39.3 44.1 51.7 53.5 54.8 55.6External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.2 na naImports ($bn) 2 3.3 4.4 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.4 3.3 3.2 4.2 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.1 -3.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -2.9 -1.8 -1.4 -1.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -23.0 -28.9 -30.1 -29.2 -27.7 -26.7 -26.9 -24.8 -16.7 -13.5 -16.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.4 -14.2 -16.5 -13.6 -10.4 -10.0 -7.3 -7.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.3 8.1 8.8 5.7 6.4 4.7 3.4 3.5 1.7 3.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -0.1 -6.1 -7.7 -7.9 -4.0 -5.3 -3.9 -4.1 -0.9 0.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 17 -8 -34 49 28 7 4 3 -2 21 25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 49 35 -25 13 11 3 5 -2 -26 -1 30 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.1 3.8 7.3 6.0 5.6 5.1 6.0 4.1 6.5 8.2 6.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 30 58 68 73 72 78 74 85 94 91 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 255 327 722 606 556 536 587 562 600 554 469 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 6 7 9 8 10 8 6 10 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 43 49 76 63 68 59 78 60 45 60 40 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 30 37 26 35 47 47 51 61 37 49 39 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 3 5 10 9 11 18 12 15 14 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 17 35 61 93 70 82 138 94 105 83 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 12 26 21 52 48 65 91 96 88 67 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 5.8 7.3 5.0 7.3 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.5 8.8 6.3 6.0 6.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 63.9 -4.1 -16.2 15.7 26.4 11.9 14.9 -3.5 5.2 24.8 28.9 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 469 450 507 496 519 517 544 553 530 532 545 618 638
Exchange rate ($) annual average 342 306 363 374 373 402 410 416 478 481 483 499 509
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - Ba2 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch BB- BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Armenia
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70Figure 70: Credit ratings AZE Figure 71: Consensus forecasts Figure 74: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.8 3.3Moody's Ba2 Aug-17 (Ba1) = CPI (%) 6.0 5.5S&P BB+ Jan-16 (BBB-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 3.7 5.2Fitch BB+ Feb-16 (BBB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Ba2 Aug-17 (Ba1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P BB+ Jan-16 (BBB-) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch BB+ Feb-16 (BBB-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 72: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 75: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$AZERBJ 2.82 09/01/21 174 95.25 2.82 3.1 4.2 135.1 AO9863371AZERBJ 4 ¾ 03/18/24 1,250 99.94 4.75 5.1 4.8 184.1 EK1203901AZERBJ 5 ⅛ 09/01/29 311 98.65 5.13 7.8 5.3 232.0 AO9863728AZERBJ 3 ½ 09/01/32 1,077 82.72 3.50 10.1 5.2 234.7 AO9863793CorporateSGCAZE 6 ⅞ 03/24/26 2,000 109.40 6.88 6.1 5.4 241.3 JK5150160SOIAZ 4 ¾ 03/13/23 1,000 99.70 4.75 4.3 4.8 186.2 EJ5777036SOIAZ 6.95 03/18/30 750 107.50 6.95 8.1 6.0 302.3 EK7906770IBAZAZ 3 ½ 09/01/24 1,000 88.47 3.50 5.5 5.7 276.0 AO9864171
Figure 76: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 73: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 9 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 9
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 51% EU 22%US 4% US 9%China 0% Japan 6%Japan 0% China 6%Other key countries Other key countriesIsrael 7% Russia 16% Figure 77: CPI vs policy rateCzech Republic 5% Turkey 13%Indonesia 4% UK 6%Russia 4% Ukraine 3%Georgia 3% Norway 2%
Product ProductFuels 90% Machinery and transport 39%Food items 5% Other machinery/transport 34%Chemicals 1% Other manufactures 27%Other manufactures 1% Food items 15%Machinery and transport 1% Chemicals 9%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Azerbaijan
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Azerbaijan 2024 $ bond Azerbaijan 2029 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
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1700.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2
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AZN vs $ AZN vs EURAzerbaijan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Azerbaijan 3M auction yield Azerbaijan 1Y auction yield
02468
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Azerbaijan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 78: Azerbaijan key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 57 (65) - Middle Corruption Rank: 122 (123) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 25.5 10.6 9.4 4.6 -1.6 2.1 5.9 2.7 0.6 -3.1 0.1 2.0 3.9Investment (% GDP) 21.5 18.7 18.9 18.1 20.3 22.3 25.7 27.5 27.9 24.9 21.4 26.1 25.7Unemployment rate year-end (%) 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 28.4 40.1 35.6 42.5 52.1 54.7 58.2 59.0 54.4 60.4 69.1 77.3 81.5Nominal GDP ($bn) 33.1 49.0 44.3 52.9 66.0 69.7 74.2 75.2 50.8 37.8 40.7 45.5 47.9Population (mn) 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.1GDP per capita ($) 3,818 5,579 4,964 5,881 7,243 7,546 7,926 7,939 5,300 3,896 4,141 4,576 4,764Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 4.1 6.3 6.8 7.6 9.0 10.8 14.7 18.1 20.9 16.0 11.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 14.4 15.6 19.1 17.9 17.3 19.8 25.3 30.7 38.4 26.6 16.6 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 44.6 49.5 39.8 44.1 46.3 43.8 42.2 40.5 27.3 22.7 24.2 30.8 31.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 16.7 20.8 1.5 5.7 7.8 1.1 2.5 1.5 4.1 12.6 13.0 7.0 6.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 19.6 15.5 0.7 8.0 5.6 -0.3 3.7 -0.1 7.8 15.6 10.0 7.0 5.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.3 17.2 5.9 13.8 10.9 3.7 1.6 2.7 -4.8 -1.2 0.9 2.4 2.1Primary government balance 2.5 17.3 6.0 13.8 10.9 3.8 1.7 2.9 -4.4 -0.8 1.5 3.2 3.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 8.3 6.9 12.4 12.5 11.2 13.8 12.6 14.4 35.0 50.7 54.7 54.9 56.4External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6.1 47.8 14.7 21.4 26.6 23.9 24.0 21.8 11.0 9.1 11.2 na naImports ($bn) 5 5.7 7.2 6.1 6.6 9.8 9.7 10.7 9.2 9.2 8.5 8.8 na naTrade balance ($bn) 0.3 40.6 8.6 14.8 16.8 14.3 13.3 12.6 1.8 0.6 2.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1.0 82.9 19.4 27.9 25.5 20.5 17.9 16.8 3.6 1.6 6.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 9.0 16.5 10.2 15.0 17.1 14.9 12.3 10.4 -0.2 -1.4 1.4 2.6 3.3Current account balance (% of GDP) 27.3 33.6 23.0 28.4 26.0 21.4 16.6 13.9 -0.4 -3.6 3.5 5.6 7.0Net FDI ($bn) -4.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.6 4.4 4.0 4.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -14.4 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.5 5.9 8.0 11.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 12.9 33.6 24.0 29.5 28.2 24.3 20.2 19.8 7.5 8.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -5 688 -69 45 24 -10 0 -9 -50 -17 22 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 25 -15 8 48 -1 11 -14 0 -7 3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4.3 6.5 5.4 6.4 10.3 11.3 14.4 14.6 6.3 5.8 6.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.0 10.8 10.6 11.7 12.6 14.0 16.1 19.1 8.2 8.2 9.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 5 7 8 8 9 12 15 19 21 22 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 13 17 15 14 17 20 25 41 57 46 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 76 14 51 38 35 49 61 88 189 235 166 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 28 4 8 7 6 9 11 14 25 29 17 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 39 27 23 25 15 20 19 21 43 45 28 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 1 1 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 4 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4 1 2 2 7 8 10 8 10 16 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 6 5 7 7 18 17 17 12 18 26 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 12.0 8.0 2.0 3.0 5.3 5.0 4.8 3.5 3.0 15.0 15.0 11.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 93.9 44.0 -0.3 24.3 32.1 20.8 14.9 11.8 -1.1 -2.0 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.17 1.21 1.12 1.06 1.10 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.19 1.77 1.92 2.11 2.13
Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.86 0.82 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 1.07 1.60 1.70 1.70 1.70
Credit rating history Latest
Moody's - - - - - - - Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's - BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ naFitch BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Azerbaijan
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Bahrain 203 BHR 419 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 79: Bahrain key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1u/B+/BB- EODB Rank: 66 (63) - Middle Corruption Rank: 103 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.3 6.2 2.5 4.3 2.0 3.7 5.4 4.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.3 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 34.7 34.9 26.1 27.3 22.4 28.1 25.9 26.8 24.4 25.8 24.6 24.7 24.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.6 3.7 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.7 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 8.2 9.7 8.6 9.7 10.8 11.6 12.2 12.6 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.2 14.9 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 21.7 25.7 22.9 25.7 28.8 30.7 32.5 33.4 31.1 32.2 34.9 37.8 39.7 NGDPD
Population (mn) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 LP
GDP per capita ($) 20,908 23,236 19,465 20,828 24,080 25,434 25,965 25,398 22,714 22,600 24,029 25,547 26,278 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 4.3 6.2 6.2 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4Lending/GDP (%) 53.1 64.2 71.4 67.7 69.6 69.1 69.6 63.9 73.7 73.2 69.5 66.0 62.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 42.2 39.5 28.7 31.0 31.2 36.5 33.3 31.4 22.0 21.1 20.7 21.5 21.3 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.0 -0.4 2.8 3.3 2.7 1.8 2.8 1.4 2.9 4.9 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.0 5.1 1.6 1.0 0.2 2.6 4.0 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.4 2.7 4.7 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 1.6 4.3 -5.6 -5.8 -1.5 -5.5 -9.7 -3.4 -18.4 -17.9 -15.1 -11.6 -11.6 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 2.4 4.8 -5.0 -4.9 -0.4 -4.2 -8.2 -1.6 -16.1 -14.9 -11.3 -7.0 -6.3 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 16.3 12.6 21.4 29.7 32.8 36.2 43.9 44.4 66.0 81.5 90.3 94.9 102.0 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 3 3.2 4.8 3.2 5.0 7.4 7.0 10.5 23.3 16.5 12.8 15.6 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 9 11.5 18.5 12.0 16.0 17.7 14.3 18.7 20.1 16.4 14.8 17.1 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -8.3 -13.7 -8.8 -11.1 -10.3 -7.4 -8.2 3.2 0.1 -2.0 -1.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -38.4 -53.1 -38.3 -43.1 -35.9 -23.9 -25.2 9.5 0.2 -6.4 -4.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2.9 2.3 0.6 0.8 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.5 -0.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 13.4 8.8 2.4 3.0 8.8 8.4 7.4 4.6 -2.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.2 -3.3 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.9 2.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.5 -1.5 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.2 10.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 5.0 11.5 4.5 -4.7 0.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 17.6 19.0 3.6 3.6 9.1 13.4 18.9 9.1 -7.1 -3.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 50 -32 53 49 -6 51 123 -29 -23 22 na naImports (% YoY, value) 29 60 -35 33 10 -19 31 8 -18 -10 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4.2 3.9 3.8 5.1 4.5 5.2 5.3 6.0 3.4 2.4 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.4 2.5 3.8 3.8 3.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.0 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 67 69 61 61 57 46 53 50 46 50 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 306 270 264 239 197 149 164 151 149 155 149 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 2082 1443 1864 1238 770 658 508 216 281 390 333 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 28 22 19 20 19 13 14 14 16 16 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 128 84 85 79 65 43 44 41 53 50 51 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 872 451 600 408 252 191 135 59 99 127 114 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 661 553 506 398 409 256 265 228 484 665 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 34.8 21.0 5.3 13.0 5.2 4.4 7.5 3.7 2.2 1.1 4.2 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 0.52 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.52 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.47 0.47
Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba2u B1u B1u naStandard & Poor's A A A A BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB- B+ B+ naFitch A A A A BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB+ BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Bangladesh 204 BGD 513 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 80: Bangladesh key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 177 (176) - Weak Corruption Rank: 143 (145) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 7 (8) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 5.5 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.9 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.3 30.1 31.1 32.0 32.5 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 5,892 6,669 7,513 8,567 9,855 11,271 12,713 14,297 16,243 18,543 21,086 23,939 27,192 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 86 97 109 122 131 142 161 184 208 236 261 286 313 NGDPD
Population (mn) 146 148 150 151 153 155 157 158 160 162 163 165 167 LP
GDP per capita ($) 585 656 728 808 857 916 1,030 1,163 1,303 1,459 1,602 1,734 1,878 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,892 2,284 2,712 3,473 4,114 4,790 5,189 6,125 6,978 8,131 9,689 11,530 13,490Lending/GDP (%) 32.1 34.2 36.1 40.5 41.7 42.5 40.8 42.8 43.0 43.8 46.0 48.2 49.6Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.8 28.2 29.0 29.1 29.4 30.2 29.8 29.1 30.3 30.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 9.1 8.9 4.9 9.4 11.5 6.2 7.5 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.6 6.7 7.7 11.6 7.6 7.1 7.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.2 -4.0 -3.2 -2.7 -3.6 -3.0 -3.4 -3.1 -4.0 -3.4 -3.3 -4.1 -4.6 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -0.6 -1.9 -1.0 -0.8 -1.9 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.9 -1.5 -1.6 -2.4 -2.7 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 41.9 40.6 39.5 35.5 36.6 36.2 35.8 35.3 32.4 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.4 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 11 12.2 13.6 14.4 16.5 23.1 22.3 25.9 28.4 29.9 30.1 31.3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 16 18.5 23.8 21.8 27.8 36.1 34.2 37.5 41.6 39.4 41.2 47.8 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -6.2 -10.2 -7.4 -11.3 -13.0 -11.9 -11.6 -13.2 -9.5 -11.0 -16.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7.3 -10.5 -6.8 -9.2 -10.0 -8.4 -7.2 -7.2 -4.6 -4.7 -6.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.6 1.2 2.7 0.5 -1.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 3.6 1.4 -3.2 -5.8 -7.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.7 1.2 2.4 0.4 -1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 -1.2 -2.0 -2.3 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.5 2.3 3.1 1.2 -0.2 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.8 1.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 12 6 15 40 -4 16 10 5 1 4 na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 29 -8 27 30 -6 10 11 -5 4 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 5.2 5.7 10.2 10.6 8.5 12.0 17.6 21.8 27.0 31.8 32.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.4 2.9 5.6 4.6 2.8 4.2 5.6 6.3 8.2 9.3 8.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 22 24 27 23 22 26 32 35 38 41 47 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 25 25 19 17 18 20 19 18 18 18 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 177 177 186 140 97 117 123 122 128 137 149 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 3 3 0 0 2 4 3 7 8 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 22 23 1 0 8 14 12 22 26 0 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 44 54 32 2 0 14 21 16 25 25 0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 19 17 10 11 19 14 11 9 6 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na 8.8 4.5 5.5 7.3 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 14.7 17.9 20.7 21.7 19.1 19.0 15.6 13.3 13.1 13.8 10.7 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 94.4 101.1 96.2 93.1 104.7 102.3 104.7 103.2 86.5 87.1 91.1 103.8 109.0
Exchange rate ($) annual average 68.8 68.7 69.0 70.2 75.2 79.5 78.8 77.7 78.0 78.7 80.7 83.8 86.9
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch - - - - - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
56
81Figure 81: Credit ratings BLR Figure 82: Consensus forecasts Figure 85: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Mar-18 = (Caa1) CPI (%) na naS&P B Oct-17 = (B) C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B Jan-18 = (B-) Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Mar-18 = (B3) FX vs $, YE na naS&P B Oct-17 = (B-) FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Jan-18 = (B-) Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 83: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 86: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$BELRUS 6 7/8 02/28/23 800 105.12 6.88 4.0 5.6 274.9 AN9885699BELRUS 7 5/8 06/29/27 600 108.38 7.63 6.5 6.4 344.0 AN9893586BELRUS 6.2 02/28/30 600 97.73 6.20 8.2 6.5 348.0 AR2861037Corporate AN9885699EUROTG 8 3/4 10/30/22 350 101.74 8.75 3.3 8.3 534.7 AP6399228
QJ1649335EJ1291206
Figure 87: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 84: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 24 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 28
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 17% EU 13%China 3% China 8%US 0% US 1%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesRussia 39% Russia 57% Figure 88: CPI vs policy rateUK 11% Poland 4%Ukraine 9% Ukraine 3%Poland 3% Turkey 2%Kazakhstan 2% Morocco 1%
Product ProductOther manufactures 22% Fuels 27%Food items 17% Machinery and transport 20%Machinery and transport 16% Other machinery/transport 15%Other machinery/transport 14% Food items 14%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 5% Chemicals 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Belarus
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7Ap
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Belarus 2027 $ bond US generic 10y YtM
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1100.0
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BYN vs $ BYN vs EURBelarus REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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na
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Belarus CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
57
Figure 89: Belarus key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 38 (37) - Strong Corruption Rank: 68 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 55 (52) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.6 10.2 0.2 7.8 5.6 1.7 1.0 1.7 -3.8 -2.5 2.4 2.8 2.5Investment (% GDP) 34.1 37.6 36.9 40.7 37.2 35.1 38.8 34.8 29.0 26.5 25.2 25.6 25.9Unemployment rate year-end (%) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 9.7 13.0 14.2 17.0 30.7 54.8 67.1 80.6 89.9 94.9 105.2 115.0 125.1Nominal GDP ($bn) 45.3 60.7 50.9 57.2 61.4 65.7 75.5 78.7 56.3 47.7 54.4 59.2 61.5Population (mn) 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4GDP per capita ($) 4,726 6,366 5,345 6,023 6,473 6,938 7,977 8,316 5,941 5,022 5,760 6,301 6,575Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 2.4 3.7 5.1 7.3 11.5 11.4 14.4 17.8 21.6 20.6 23.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 24.8 28.6 35.7 42.6 37.4 20.8 21.5 22.1 24.0 21.7 22.3 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.4 29.5 24.8 26.2 29.0 32.3 28.8 28.2 25.8 23.0 23.4 23.1 23.3PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.4 14.8 13.0 7.7 53.2 59.2 18.3 18.1 13.5 11.8 6.0 6.0 6.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 12.1 13.3 10.1 9.9 108.7 21.8 16.5 16.2 12.0 10.6 4.6 6.0 6.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -8.1 -11.3 -7.2 -4.2 -2.8 0.4 -1.0 0.1 -2.2 -3.4 -1.7 -2.4 -3.0Primary government balance -7.7 -10.7 -6.5 -3.5 -1.7 1.7 0.0 1.1 -0.5 -1.4 0.4 0.0 -0.5Total public debt (% of GDP) 16.4 21.0 32.5 36.8 58.2 36.9 36.9 38.8 53.0 53.5 51.0 49.5 49.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 20 24.3 32.5 21.3 25.3 41.4 46.0 37.1 36.0 26.6 23.5 29.2 na naImports ($bn) 22 28.7 39.4 28.6 34.9 45.8 46.4 43.0 40.5 30.3 27.6 34.2 na naTrade balance ($bn) -4.4 -6.8 -7.3 -9.6 -4.3 -0.4 -5.9 -4.5 -3.6 -4.1 -5.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.8 -11.3 -14.4 -16.8 -7.1 -0.6 -7.8 -5.7 -6.5 -8.5 -9.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -3.0 -5.0 -6.1 -8.3 -5.1 -1.9 -7.6 -5.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -1.5 -1.6Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.7 -8.2 -12.1 -14.5 -8.2 -2.8 -10.0 -6.6 -3.3 -3.5 -1.8 -2.5 -2.7Net FDI ($bn) 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.4 4.0 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.0 3.6 3.7 2.4 6.5 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.7 -4.6 -8.4 -12.0 -1.7 -0.7 -7.1 -4.3 -0.4 -0.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 34 -35 19 64 11 -19 -3 -26 -12 24 na naImports (% YoY, value) 28 37 -27 22 31 1 -7 -6 -25 -9 24 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4.0 2.7 4.8 3.4 6.0 5.8 4.9 3.4 2.7 3.2 5.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 1.7 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 12 15 22 28 34 34 40 40 38 38 40 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 28 25 43 50 55 51 52 51 68 79 73 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 52 47 104 112 82 73 107 111 144 159 137 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 7 8 9 12 13 12 14 13 11 11 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 12 18 21 22 18 19 16 20 22 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 23 43 47 32 25 38 36 43 45 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 186 282 188 346 224 200 285 375 418 331 180 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 6 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 3 3 5 8 6 7 9 12 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 4 8 7 8 11 13 15 20 25 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 28 52 35 51 54 87 95 156 195 185 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 10.0 12.0 13.5 10.5 45.0 30.0 23.5 20.0 25.0 18.0 11.0 10.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 40.0 26.3 23.1 31.9 121.2 44.6 20.2 23.9 36.5 3.8 17.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 0.29 0.31 0.39 0.40 0.70 1.07 1.18 1.36 1.77 2.20 2.18 2.41 2.55
Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.30 0.50 0.83 0.89 1.02 1.60 1.99 1.93 1.94 2.03
Credit rating history Latest
Moody's - - - B1 B3 B3 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 B3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B B naFitch - - - - - - - - - B- B- B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Belarus
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
58
90Figure 90: Credit ratings BRA Figure 91: Consensus forecasts Figure 94: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 2.6 2.8Moody's Ba2 Feb-16 (Baa3) = CPI (%) 3.4 4.1S&P BB- Jan-18 (BB) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -1.2 -1.8Fitch BB- Feb-18 (BB) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -7.3 -6.2Local currencyMoody's Ba2 Feb-16 (Baa3) = FX vs $, YE 3.3 3.3S&P BB- Jan-18 (BB) = FX vs EUR, YE 3.5 3.5Fitch BB- Feb-18 (BB) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 92: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 95: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$BRAZIL 4 7/8 01/22/21 2,713 103.50 4.88 2.5 3.5 69.7 EI2240923BRAZIL 2 5/8 01/05/23 2,150 94.25 2.63 4.3 4.0 105.7 EJ3529579BRAZIL 8 7/8 04/15/24 1,029 125.69 8.88 4.8 4.0 104.4 EC3590501BRAZIL 8 7/8 04/15/24 86 125.48 8.88 4.8 4.0 107.8 ED0847993BRAZIL 4 1/4 01/07/25 4,300 98.84 4.25 5.7 4.5 148.1 EJ9011747BRAZIL 8 3/4 02/04/25 688 126.06 8.75 5.2 4.3 130.8 ED8017961BRAZIL 6 04/07/26 2,176 108.59 6.00 6.3 4.7 170.6 JK4244196BRAZIL 10 1/8 05/15/27 838 140.05 10.13 6.3 4.6 165.6 TT3330608BRAZIL 4 5/8 01/13/28 3,000 96.79 4.63 7.6 5.0 203.2 AP4166843BRAZIL 12 1/4 03/06/30 240 161.25 12.25 7.4 5.2 222.1 EC2324027BRAZIL 8 1/4 01/20/34 1,502 124.69 8.25 9.4 5.8 277.4 ED2893128BRAZIL 7 1/8 01/20/37 1,920 114.99 7.13 10.7 5.8 273.4 EF2387670BRAZIL 5 5/8 01/07/41 2,484 95.82 5.63 12.3 6.0 289.2 EH9950625Figure 96: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)BRAZIL 5 01/27/45 3,550 86.87 5.00 13.6 6.0 292.7 EK4038676BRAZIL 5 5/8 02/21/47 3,000 94.80 5.63 13.6 6.0 294.9 LW9795870lclBRAZIL 10 1/4 01/10/28 4,765 114.50 10.25 6.2 8.1 na EG1787746
Figure 93: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 185 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 145
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 19% China 18%Euro area 15% EU 18%US 13% US 16%Japan 3% Japan 3%Other key countries Other key countriesArgentina 7% Argentina 6% Figure 97: CPI vs policy rateChile 2% Korea 3%India 2% Nigeria 3%Mexico 2% Mexico 3%Korea 2% India 3%
Product ProductFood items 37% Machinery and transport 37%Machinery and transport 19% Other machinery/transport 27%Other machinery/transport 18% Chemicals 25%Other manufactures 13% Other manufactures 15%Other ores and metals 10% Fuels 11%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Brazil
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Brazil 2028 $ bond Generic Brazil 10Y $ yieldUS generic 10y YtM
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13022334455
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BRL vs $ BRL vs EURBrazil REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Brazil CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
59
Figure 98: Brazil key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 125 (123) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 56 (56) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.1 5.1 -0.1 7.5 4.0 1.9 3.0 0.5 -3.6 -3.5 1.0 2.3 2.5Investment (% GDP) 19.8 21.7 18.8 21.9 21.9 21.5 21.8 20.6 17.5 15.4 15.5 16.1 16.9Unemployment rate year-end (%) 10.9 9.4 9.7 8.5 7.8 7.4 7.2 6.8 8.3 11.3 12.8 11.6 10.5Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,718 3,108 3,330 3,884 4,376 4,815 5,330 5,778 5,995 6,257 6,558 6,950 7,458Nominal GDP ($bn) 1396 1695 1668 2208 2614 2464 2471 2456 1800 1793 2055 2139 2257Population (mn) 189 192 194 195 197 199 201 203 204 206 208 209 211GDP per capita ($) 7,369 8,850 8,617 11,292 13,242 12,368 12,292 12,110 8,802 8,700 9,895 10,224 10,712Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,329 1,697 1,868 2,403 2,954 3,498 3,988 4,489 4,791 4,658 4,475 4,296 4,210Lending/GDP (%) 48.9 54.6 56.1 61.9 67.5 72.6 74.8 77.7 79.9 74.4 68.2 61.8 56.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 19.8 19.9 17.2 18.4 18.9 18.5 18.7 16.3 14.2 14.1 15.0 14.5 15.1PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.6 5.7 4.9 5.0 6.6 5.4 6.2 6.3 9.0 8.7 3.4 3.5 4.2CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.4 10.7 6.3 2.9 3.9 4.3Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.7 -1.5 -3.2 -2.7 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 -5.4 -10.3 -9.0 -7.8 -8.3 -8.3Primary government balance 3.2 3.8 1.9 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.0 -2.0 -2.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.8Total public debt (% of GDP) 63.8 61.9 65.0 63.1 61.2 62.2 60.2 62.3 72.6 78.4 84.0 87.3 90.2External indicatorsExports ($bn) 138 157 198 151 202 256 242 242 225 191 185 218 na naImports ($bn) 98 129 184 134 192 240 236 254 243 182 145 160 na naTrade balance ($bn) 27.7 14.4 17.0 9.4 16.3 5.6 -12.3 -17.7 9.4 39.4 58.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 2.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.5 2.2 2.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.4 -30.6 -26.3 -75.8 -77.0 -74.2 -74.8 -104.2 -59.4 -23.5 -9.8 -33.5 -40.1Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -1.8 -1.6 -3.4 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -4.2 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.6 -1.8Net FDI ($bn) 34.6 45.1 25.9 83.7 96.2 76.1 53.1 73.1 64.6 58.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.5 2.7 1.6 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.1 3.0 3.6 3.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.9 -1.3 0.3 2.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13.4 26.1 -23.9 34.1 26.8 -5.4 -0.2 -6.9 -15.1 -3.4 18.0 na naImports (% YoY, value) 32.6 42.0 -27.2 44.1 24.6 -1.4 7.4 -4.4 -25.1 -20.1 10.1 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 179 193 237 286 350 370 356 361 354 363 371 na naImport cover (months of imports) 16.7 12.6 21.3 17.8 17.5 18.8 16.8 17.8 23.4 30.0 27.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 241 263 278 352 404 441 483 713 665 677 669 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 17.3 15.5 16.6 15.9 15.5 17.9 19.5 29.0 37.0 37.7 32.5 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 154 133 184 174 158 182 200 317 348 367 307 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 38.9 36.4 31.0 57.3 40.1 32.6 32.6 57.6 51.1 56.3 51.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2.8 2.2 1.9 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.1 2.5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 24.8 18.4 20.6 28.4 15.7 13.5 13.5 25.6 26.8 30.5 23.8 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 21.7 18.9 13.0 20.0 11.5 8.8 9.2 16.0 14.4 15.5 14.0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 55.0 56.5 44.5 45.9 59.1 45.5 82.0 62.2 89.8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 3.3 2.5 5.0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 35.1 28.6 29.6 22.7 23.1 18.8 33.9 27.6 47.0 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 30.7 29.3 18.8 16.0 16.9 12.3 23.0 17.2 25.4 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 11.3 13.8 8.8 10.8 11.0 7.3 10.0 11.8 14.3 13.8 7.0 6.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 20.9 19.0 16.1 16.8 16.8 15.6 7.3 13.4 11.2 10.8 7.7 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 2.67 2.70 2.78 2.33 2.33 2.51 2.87 3.13 3.70 3.86 3.61 4.03 4.14
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.95 1.83 2.00 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.35 3.33 3.49 3.19 3.25 3.30
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB BB- naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BB+ BB BB BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Brazil
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
60
99Figure 99: Credit ratings CMR Figure 100: Consensus forecasts Figure 103: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B2 Aug-16 (-) = CPI (%) na naS&P B Feb-07 (B-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B Jun-06 (B-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B2 Aug-16 (-) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B Feb-07 (B-) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B May-12 (B-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 101: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 104: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$REPCAM 9 ½ 11/19/25 750 115.59 9.50 4.8 6.8 346.8 QJ7814669
Figure 105: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 102: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 2.2 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 4.9
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 36% China 28%China 17% EU 25%US 3% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 16% Nigeria 14% Figure 106: CPI vs policy rateUK 3% India 3%Vietnam 3% Thailand 3%Chad 2% Ivory Coast 2%DR Congo 2% Equatorial Guinea 2%
Product ProductFuels 34% Machinery and transport 27%Food items 28% Other machinery/transport 22%Agricultural raw materials 21% Other manufactures 21%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 4% Food items 19%Other manufactures 4% Fuels 18%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Cameroon
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Cameroon CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
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61
Figure 107: Cameroon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B EODB Rank: 163 (166) - Weak Corruption Rank: 153 (145) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 9 (11) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.5 2.2 3.4 4.1 4.5 5.4 5.9 5.7 4.5 3.2 4.0 4.5Investment (% GDP) 15.0 25.9 29.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.3 29.3 27.7 27.5 26.2 26.2 26.4Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 10.7 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.8 14.9 16.0 17.3 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.8Nominal GDP ($bn) 22.4 26.5 26.1 26.2 29.4 29.1 32.4 35.0 30.9 32.2 34.0 39.1 41.7Population (mn) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5GDP per capita ($) 1,188 1,369 1,309 1,282 1,403 1,357 1,471 1,552 1,339 1,361 1,401 1,570 1,637Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 na naLending/GDP (%) 9.9 10.9 11.6 13.1 14.8 14.1 15.1 15.4 16.5 17.3 15.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 13.6 24.8 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.6 24.8 25.3 23.9 24.3 23.7 23.7 24.1PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.1 5.3 3.0 1.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.4 5.3 0.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.7 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 4.3 2.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.4 -1.4 -3.7 -4.2 -4.4 -6.2 -4.3 -2.2 -1.8Primary government balance 4.7 2.3 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 -3.3 -3.8 -4.0 -5.4 -3.4 -1.4 -1.1Total public debt (% of GDP) 14.8 11.7 12.0 14.7 15.7 15.4 18.2 21.5 30.9 31.5 33.8 34.3 34.1External indicatorsExports ($bn) 3 4.1 2.2 1.8 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.5 5.2 4.0 2.2 2.7 na naImports ($bn) 3 3.3 4.2 3.7 5.1 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.5 6.0 4.9 4.9 na naTrade balance ($bn) 0.8 -2.0 -1.9 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.0 -2.8 -2.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 3.7 -7.5 -7.4 -3.2 -7.3 -7.3 -6.7 -6.6 -6.4 -8.5 -6.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.3 -1.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.6 -4.0 -3.8 -3.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4Net FDI ($bn) 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.9 -0.1 2.6 0.0 1.2 2.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 0.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.1 -1.1 -0.6 -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -2.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 -48 -17 134 5 -3 4 17 -22 -46 25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 4 26 -10 36 30 -2 4 13 -20 -18 0 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 2.2 3.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 10.6 8.9 11.9 8.6 5.8 6.3 6.3 5.1 7.1 5.4 7.8 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 10 7 9 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 8 9 10 10 11 12 17 33 23 28 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 57 99 135 61 63 71 88 112 254 342 352 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 30 0 1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 35 0 1 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 12 20 22 5 7 6 5 8 11 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 17 14 11 6 10 7 6 14 12 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.8 18.4 7.7 13.1 12.0 0.5 11.7 13.1 9.0 5.0 3.6 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656
Exchange rate ($) annual average 479 446 471 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 529 523
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's B B B B B B B B B B B B naFitch B B B B B B B B B B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Cameroon
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Chile 207 CHL 228 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 108: Chile key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/A+/A EODB Rank: 55 (57) - Middle Corruption Rank: 26 (24) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 78 (71) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.6 -1.6 5.8 6.1 5.3 4.1 1.8 2.3 1.3 1.5 3.4 3.3 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 20.8 26.8 21.2 23.1 24.6 26.3 25.7 23.2 23.7 22.3 22.0 22.8 22.9 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 7.0 7.8 10.8 8.2 7.1 6.4 5.9 6.4 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.2 5.8 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 91 94 97 111 122 130 138 149 160 169 180 194 206 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 173 180 173 218 252 267 278 261 244 250 277 280 296 NGDPD
Population (mn) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 LP
GDP per capita ($) 10,511 10,758 10,223 12,792 14,611 15,310 15,789 14,623 13,552 13,743 15,070 15,087 15,760 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 64 72 70 76 89 100 109 122 137 144 149 154 163Lending/GDP (%) 70.9 76.6 73 69 73 77 79 82 86 85 83 79 79Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 25.1 24.5 22.6 24.8 23.3 22.4 21.6 21.6 21.4 20.9 20.5 21.0 21.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.4 8.7 1.5 1.4 3.3 3.0 1.9 4.4 4.4 3.8 2.2 2.4 3.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.9 7.1 -1.5 2.9 4.4 1.5 2.9 4.7 4.4 2.8 2.3 2.6 3.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 7.9 3.9 -4.2 -0.4 1.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -2.1 -2.7 -2.7 -0.9 -0.6 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 7.7 3.6 -4.4 -0.3 1.5 0.8 -0.4 -1.3 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -0.5 -0.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 3.9 4.9 5.8 8.6 11.1 11.9 12.7 15.0 17.3 21.0 23.6 23.8 24.6 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 59 68.6 64.5 55.5 71.1 81.4 77.8 76.4 74.9 62.2 59.8 68.3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 39 47.6 62.8 42.8 59.2 74.7 80.1 79.3 72.8 62.5 55.6 65.2 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 21.0 1.7 12.7 11.9 6.7 -2.3 -2.9 2.1 -0.3 4.2 3.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 12.1 1.0 7.3 5.5 2.7 -0.9 -1.0 0.8 -0.1 1.7 1.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 7.5 -7.0 3.3 3.2 -4.2 -10.4 -11.3 -4.3 -5.6 -3.5 -4.1 -5.0 -5.5 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 4.3 -3.9 1.9 1.4 -1.6 -3.9 -4.0 -1.7 -2.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 12.6 15.5 12.4 16.6 16.7 25.0 17.9 21.2 20.2 11.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.2 8.6 7.2 7.6 6.6 9.4 6.4 8.1 8.3 4.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 11.6 4.8 9.1 9.0 5.0 5.4 2.4 6.5 6.0 3.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 15 -6 -14 28 15 -4 -2 -2 -17 -4 14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 32 -32 38 26 7 -1 -8 -14 -11 17 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 16.8 23.1 25.3 27.8 41.9 41.6 41.1 40.4 38.6 40.5 39.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.2 4.4 7.1 5.6 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.4 8.7 7.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 56 65 74 87 101 123 136 152 161 167 182 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 36 43 40 40 46 49 58 66 67 66 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 82 101 133 122 124 158 179 203 259 279 266 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 10 14 16 16 18 21 18 17 13 13 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6 8 9 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 21 28 22 22 27 23 22 20 22 26 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 58 60 61 56 44 50 43 41 32 32 45 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 6.0 8.3 0.5 3.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 15.6 18.1 0.9 11.9 21.0 9.0 11.6 11.1 12.2 8.2 4.8 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 716 769 780 677 674 626 658 758 726 749 733 856 875
Exchange rate ($) annual average 522 522 560 510 484 486 495 570 654 677 649 691 697
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A+ naFitch A A A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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China 208 CHN 924 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 109: China key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A+/A+ EODB Rank: 78 (78) - Middle Corruption Rank: 77 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 56 (54) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.6 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.4 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 41.2 43.2 46.3 47.9 48.0 47.2 47.3 46.8 44.7 44.1 44.4 44.2 43.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 27.2 32.0 35.0 41.1 48.6 54.1 59.7 64.7 69.9 74.6 81.2 88.6 96.5 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 3,571 4,604 5,122 6,066 7,522 8,570 9,635 10,535 11,226 11,222 12,015 14,093 15,544 NGDPD
Population (mn) 1,321 1,328 1,335 1,341 1,347 1,354 1,361 1,368 1,375 1,383 1,390 1,397 1,403 LP
GDP per capita ($) 2,703 3,467 3,838 4,524 5,583 6,329 7,081 7,702 8,167 8,116 8,643 10,088 11,076 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 28.6 32.6 43.4 52.2 60.1 69.4 79.6 90.3 105.1 116.6 128.9 141.8 157.4Lending/GDP (%) 105.2 101.8 123.9 127.0 123.6 128.3 133.4 139.5 150.4 156.4 158.7 160.1 163.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 51.1 52.3 51.1 51.8 49.8 49.7 48.8 49.0 47.5 45.9 45.8 45.4 44.9 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.5 2.6 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.5 1.2 1.9 4.6 4.1 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.6 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -2.8 -3.7 -4.0 -4.1 -4.3 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.4 0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -2.2 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 29.0 27.0 34.3 33.7 33.6 34.3 37.0 39.9 41.1 44.3 47.8 51.2 54.4 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 969 1,218 1,429 1,202 1,578 1,899 2,050 2,211 2,343 2,281 2,137 2,280 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 792 956 1,132 1,004 1,394 1,741 1,817 1,949 1,963 1,602 1,589 1,832 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 262 297 198 185 158 233 261 380 679 547 448 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 7.3 6.4 3.9 3.0 2.1 2.7 2.7 3.6 6.0 4.9 3.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 353 421 243 238 136 215 148 236 304 202 165 167 179 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 9.9 9.1 4.8 3.9 1.8 2.5 1.5 2.2 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 84 108 95 115 124 121 124 129 136 134 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 12.2 11.5 6.6 5.8 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 3.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26 17 -16 31 20 8 8 6 -3 -6 7 na naImports (% YoY, value) 21 18 -11 39 25 4 7 1 -18 -1 15 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1,530 1,949 2,416 2,862 3,203 3,331 3,840 3,859 3,345 3,030 3,159 na naImport cover (months of imports) 19.2 20.7 28.9 24.6 22.1 22.0 23.6 23.6 25.1 22.9 20.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 286 375 440 560 706 748 874 896 1383 1421 1680 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 14 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 23 26 37 35 37 36 40 38 61 66 74 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 167 187 241 348 477 510 625 621 822 801 1023 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 13 20 22 25 25 28 27 36 38 45 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 11 10 10 12 15 15 16 16 25 26 32 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 32 33 40 52 63 72 77 81 126 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 6 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 7.5 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.6 6.0 6.0 5.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 16.7 17.8 27.6 19.7 17.3 14.4 13.6 11.0 13.3 11.3 8.2 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 10.43 10.22 9.53 8.98 9.00 8.12 8.23 8.16 6.91 7.35 7.64 7.79 7.79
Exchange rate ($) annual average 7.61 6.95 6.83 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.20 6.14 6.23 6.64 6.76 6.29 6.21
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A+ naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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64
Colombia 209 COL 233 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 110: Colombia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 59 (53) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (90) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 37 (32) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.9 3.5 1.7 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.7 3.3 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 23.0 23.5 22.4 22.1 23.9 23.9 24.3 26.3 26.7 24.7 23.4 23.6 23.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 11.2 11.3 12.0 11.8 10.8 10.4 9.7 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.1 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 431 480 505 545 620 664 710 757 799 855 913 969 1,030 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 207 244 234 287 335 369 380 378 292 280 309 328 347 NGDPD
Population (mn) 43.9 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.0 46.6 47.1 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.4 LP
GDP per capita ($) 4,723 5,496 5,200 6,305 7,285 7,931 8,068 7,938 6,048 5,744 6,273 6,581 6,889 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 143 161 165 195 235 270 301 345 406 442 477 525 577Lending/GDP (%) 33.3 33.5 32.8 35.8 37.9 40.6 42.3 45.5 50.8 51.6 52.3 54.2 56.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 20.1 20.8 20.5 19.1 21.0 20.8 21.0 21.1 20.3 20.4 20.0 21.0 21.1 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.5 7.0 4.2 2.3 3.4 3.2 2.0 2.9 5.0 7.5 4.3 3.5 3.4 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.7 7.6 1.9 3.1 3.7 2.4 2.0 3.7 6.9 5.8 4.1 3.4 3.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.8 -0.3 -2.8 -3.3 -2.0 0.1 -0.9 -1.8 -3.4 -3.0 -3.1 -2.7 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 1.8 1.9 -1.1 -1.6 -0.1 1.6 1.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 32.5 32.1 35.2 36.4 35.7 34.1 37.8 43.7 50.6 50.7 49.4 49.3 48.2 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 23 28.5 37.1 32.6 39.4 55.7 59.6 58.8 54.8 35.7 31.4 36.2 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 25 32.6 39.7 32.9 40.7 54.6 58.6 59.4 64.0 54.1 44.3 46.1 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -4.1 -2.6 -0.3 -1.3 1.1 1.0 -0.6 -9.2 -18.4 -12.9 -9.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -6.3 -4.6 -3.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6.0 -6.5 -4.6 -8.7 -9.8 -11.4 -12.5 -19.8 -18.6 -12.1 -10.4 -8.5 -9.0 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -2.6 -2.0 -3.0 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -5.2 -6.4 -4.3 -3.4 -2.6 -2.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 8.9 10.6 8.0 6.4 14.6 15.0 16.2 16.3 12.1 13.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 4.3 3.4 2.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.4 1.7 1.4 -0.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 -0.9 -2.2 0.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 30 -12 21 42 7 -1 -7 -35 -12 15 na naImports (% YoY, value) 28 22 -17 24 34 7 1 8 -16 -18 4 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 20.8 23.5 24.7 27.8 31.4 36.4 42.8 46.4 46.1 46.0 46.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.6 7.1 9.0 8.2 6.9 7.5 8.6 8.7 10.2 12.5 12.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 45 47 54 65 76 79 92 101 110 120 124 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 22 19 23 23 23 21 24 27 38 43 40 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 157 126 165 165 136 132 156 185 310 383 344 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 5 6 4 8 11 10 11 12 12 11 13 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 18 15 12 20 19 17 19 22 33 36 35 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 25 24 16 28 34 28 25 26 26 25 27 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 9 8 9 10 10 15 10 15 14 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 30 21 27 25 18 26 17 27 39 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 41 34 36 35 33 42 23 32 30 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 9.5 9.5 3.5 3.0 4.8 4.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.5 4.8 4.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 18.2 17.0 7.6 11.3 18.2 15.5 13.7 8.8 12.3 6.8 7.3 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 2,848 2,891 3,009 2,520 2,573 2,312 2,483 2,658 3,043 3,382 3,334 3,661 3,720
Exchange rate ($) annual average 2,078 1,965 2,158 1,899 1,848 1,798 1,869 2,001 2,742 3,055 2,951 2,953 2,967
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba2 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- naFitch BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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111Figure 111: Credit ratings COG Figure 112: Consensus forecasts Figure 115: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Caa2 Jul-17 (B3) – CPI (%) na naS&P CCC+ Sep-17 (SD) = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch CC Sep-17 (RD) na Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Caa2 Jul-17 (B3) – FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Mar-16 (B) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch CCC Aug-16 (C) na Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 113: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 116: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$REPCON 6 06/30/29 350 88.35 6.00 4.4 7.6 661.3 EH117190
Figure 117: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 114: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 2.6 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 3.4
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 42% EU 32%Euro area 30% China 21%US 5% US 5%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 5% UK 4% Figure 118: CPI vs policy rateAustralia 2% India 4%Korea 1% Turkey 2%Gabon 1% South Africa 2%Taiwan 1% Thailand 1%
Product ProductFuels 79% Machinery and transport 41%Agricultural raw materials 8% Other machinery/transport 37%Other ores and metals 5% Other manufactures 25%Other manufactures 3% Food items 17%Machinery and transport 3% Chemicals 10%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Congo, Rep.
02468
10121416
Jan-
14Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4Oc
t-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5Oc
t-15
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r-16
Jul-1
6Oc
t-16
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Jul-1
7Oc
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18Ap
r-18
Congo, Rep. 2029 $ bond US generic 10y YtM
90
100
110
120400
600
800
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
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l-11
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l-12
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l-14
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l-15
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l-16
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l-17
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18
XAF vs $XAF vs EUR
Weaker
Stronger
n/a
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
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11Ju
l-11
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12Ju
l-12
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18
Congo, Rep. CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 119: Congo, Rep. key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa2/CCC+/CC EODB Rank: 179 (177) - Weak Corruption Rank: 161 (159) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -1.6 5.6 7.8 8.7 3.4 3.8 3.3 6.8 2.6 -2.8 -4.6 0.7 4.6Investment (% GDP) 35.0 22.4 27.9 22.2 25.7 31.0 33.0 48.0 47.2 46.3 23.7 19.2 18.7Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,564 4,557 4,410 6,083 6,982 6,972 6,927 6,960 5,056 4,616 4,946 5,540 5,714Nominal GDP ($bn) 7.4 10.2 9.4 12.3 14.8 13.7 14.0 14.1 8.6 7.8 8.5 10.5 10.9Population (mn) 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6GDP per capita ($) 2,192 2,937 2,624 3,364 3,951 3,556 3,561 3,493 2,067 1,836 1,958 2,350 2,391Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 91 167 223 389 529 670 788 987 1,116 1,162 1,110 na naLending/GDP (%) 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.4 7.6 9.6 11.4 14.2 22.1 25.2 22.4 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 6.7 30.9 13.3 29.6 39.7 48.8 46.8 49.3 -6.9 -27.8 11.1 22.2 23.6PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.6 6.0 4.3 0.4 1.8 5.0 4.6 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.5 1.5 1.6CPI (year-end, % YoY) -3.9 11.8 -1.8 2.6 1.8 7.5 2.1 0.5 4.1 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.9Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 10.6 27.2 4.9 15.5 15.4 7.5 -5.0 -16.7 -27.2 -22.6 -7.2 3.9 5.0Primary government balance 13.4 30.1 6.3 16.4 15.5 7.5 -4.7 -16.5 -26.4 -20.0 -4.8 6.3 7.1Total public debt (% of GDP) 110.6 79.3 63.3 22.2 23.8 28.6 34.2 47.6 97.1 114.6 119.1 110.4 105.0External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6.0 9.3 7.6 6.7 13.3 7.5 10.0 6.2 3.2 2.6 3.4 na naImports ($bn) 3 3.9 3.5 4.4 4.4 7.0 7.3 8.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.0 na naTrade balance ($bn) 2.1 5.8 3.1 2.3 6.3 0.1 1.6 2.9 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 27.6 56.5 33.2 18.7 42.3 0.7 11.6 20.3 -2.9 -10.7 16.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2.1 0.9 -1.4 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.9 0.2 -4.6 -5.8 -1.1 0.3 0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -28.3 8.5 -14.6 7.3 14.0 17.7 13.8 1.4 -54.1 -74.1 -12.7 3.0 4.8Net FDI ($bn) 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.9 5.5 1.5 2.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 19.7 19.9 13.6 7.5 14.7 15.7 20.8 39.0 17.4 25.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -8.6 28.4 -1.0 14.9 28.7 33.5 34.6 40.4 -36.8 -48.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 1.3 55.7 -18.9 -11.7 99.0 -43.9 34.3 -37.9 -48.8 -17.8 28.8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 50.3 -9.9 25.6 -1.7 60.5 4.8 13.9 -60.0 2.4 0.5 -43.3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.2 3.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.6 13.1 10.3 12.2 9.7 9.1 7.5 17.7 7.8 2.5 2.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3.6 3.8 4.0 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.2 6.2 6.0 6.3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 49.0 37.2 42.9 17.6 14.3 21.5 23.4 22.8 72.0 77.2 74.4 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 60.9 40.8 53.2 32.4 15.9 39.4 32.8 51.8 193.6 230.0 188.1 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 2.9 7.7 4.3 0.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 4.2 3.2 4.0 4.1 1.9 4.3 4.3 6.6 20.7 12.8 0.1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 11.5 7.7 8.0 6.1 4.6 5.8 8.3 8.4 29.6 46.9 0.6 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.2 2.2 2.6 1.9 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.0 2.3 3.0 4.9 7.1 5.7 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 5.0 4.3 4.7 3.2 2.4 3.0 5.8 6.2 10.2 21.0 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.5 38.6 5.2 35.9 39.7 21.3 1.6 13.8 -11.6 -15.3 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656
Exchange rate ($) annual average 479 446 471 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 529 523
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B3 Caa2 Caa2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - B+ B+ B B- CCC+ CCC+ naFitch - - - - - - B+ B+ B+ CCC CC CC naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Congo, Rep.
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Croatia 210 HRV 960 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 120: Croatia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 51 (43) - Middle Corruption Rank: 57 (55) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 76 (73) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.2 2.1 -7.4 -1.4 -0.3 -2.2 -0.6 -0.1 2.3 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 29.7 31.4 25.0 21.4 20.6 19.2 19.3 18.8 20.0 20.2 19.4 19.9 20.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 14.7 13.0 14.5 17.2 17.4 18.6 19.8 19.3 17.1 14.8 12.2 12.0 11.2 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 322 348 331 329 333 331 331 331 339 349 364 379 394 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 60.1 70.5 62.6 59.8 62.4 56.6 58.1 57.6 49.4 51.4 54.5 61.1 63.8 NGDPD
Population (mn) 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 LP
GDP per capita ($) 13,544 15,889 14,142 13,542 14,574 13,253 13,648 13,598 11,757 12,313 13,138 14,788 15,533 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 210 233 232 256 266 254 239 239 233 225 221 219 221Lending/GDP (%) 65.3 67.0 70.0 77.8 79.9 76.8 72.1 72.2 68.8 64.4 60.7 57.7 56.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.6 22.7 19.9 20.3 19.9 19.1 20.3 20.8 24.5 22.7 23.1 22.9 22.7 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.9 6.1 2.4 1.0 2.3 3.4 2.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.8 2.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 4.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.4 -2.8 -6.0 -6.2 -7.8 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4 -3.3 -0.9 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -1.0 -1.1 -4.1 -4.1 -5.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2.3 -0.1 2.0 3.3 2.0 2.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 37.7 39.6 49.0 58.2 65.0 70.6 81.7 85.8 85.4 82.7 78.4 75.5 72.6 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 10 12.4 14.1 10.5 11.8 13.3 12.4 12.7 13.8 12.9 13.8 16.0 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 21 25.9 30.7 21.2 20.0 22.7 20.8 22.0 22.8 20.6 21.9 24.7 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -13.5 -16.6 -10.7 -8.2 -9.4 -8.5 -9.3 -9.0 -7.6 -8.1 -8.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -22.4 -23.6 -17.1 -13.8 -15.0 -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -15.5 -15.8 -16.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -4.3 -6.2 -3.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -8.8 -5.1 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.9 2.0 4.5 2.5 3.7 3.0 2.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 4.6 5.3 3.1 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.9 3.7 0.2 1.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.6 7.5 4.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.6 6.4 0.4 3.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 8.4 4.9 5.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 19 14 -26 13 13 -7 2 9 -7 7 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 20 19 -31 -6 13 -8 6 4 -10 6 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 13.7 13.0 14.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 17.8 15.4 15.0 14.2 18.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.3 5.1 8.4 8.5 7.7 8.5 9.7 8.1 8.7 7.8 9.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 50 56 66 63 60 60 63 56 49 44 48 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 83 80 105 105 96 106 109 98 100 86 88 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 401 400 628 531 450 483 499 407 382 318 300 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 3 4 4 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 9 9 10 10 8 8 6 8 7 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 38 46 56 52 49 35 36 25 31 26 31 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 34 51 39 43 45 29 26 23 27 25 26 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 4.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.6 3.4 2.0 3.8 1.6 3.2 2.9 5.9 -0.1 3.8 3.0 na na FM4_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 7.35 7.26 7.37 7.29 7.44 7.52 7.58 7.64 7.61 7.53 7.53 7.69 7.75
Exchange rate ($) annual average 5.36 4.94 5.28 5.50 5.34 5.85 5.70 5.75 6.86 6.80 6.67 6.21 6.18
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB BB BB BB BB+ naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB BB BB BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Czech Republic211 CZE 935 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 121: Czech Republic key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/AA-/A+ EODB Rank: 30 (27) - Strong Corruption Rank: 42 (47) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 91 (89) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.6 2.7 -4.8 2.3 1.8 -0.8 -0.5 2.7 5.3 2.6 4.3 3.5 3.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 32.1 31.1 26.5 27.1 27.0 26.2 24.7 25.9 28.0 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.4 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.3 4.4 6.7 7.3 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.1 5.0 3.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,840 4,024 3,930 3,962 4,034 4,060 4,098 4,314 4,596 4,773 5,043 5,267 5,520 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 189 236 206 207 228 207 209 208 187 195 213 252 277 NGDPD
Population (mn) 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 LP
GDP per capita ($) 18,435 22,819 19,788 19,831 21,737 19,740 19,913 19,769 17,729 18,506 20,152 23,750 26,114 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,828 2,191 2,135 2,174 2,344 2,379 2,420 2,543 2,662 2,843 2,987 3,136 3,371Lending/GDP (%) 47.6 54.4 54.3 54.9 58.1 58.6 59.0 59.0 57.9 59.6 59.2 59.5 61.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.5 29.2 24.2 23.5 24.9 24.6 24.1 26.1 28.2 27.4 27.5 26.8 26.8 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.9 6.3 1.0 1.5 1.9 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.7 -2.0 -5.5 -4.2 -2.7 -3.9 -1.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.0 -1.3 -4.5 -3.2 -1.7 -2.8 -0.2 -0.8 0.3 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 27.5 28.3 33.6 37.4 39.8 44.5 44.9 42.2 40.0 36.8 34.7 32.9 31.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 95 123 147 113 133 163 157 162 175 158 163 180 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 93 118 142 105 127 152 142 144 154 141 143 162 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 4.3 5.0 7.9 6.4 10.8 15.7 18.0 20.8 16.5 19.7 18.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 2.3 2.1 3.8 3.1 4.7 7.5 8.6 10.0 8.8 10.1 8.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -8.7 -4.4 -4.7 -7.4 -4.8 -3.2 -1.1 0.4 0.5 2.2 2.4 0.8 1.0 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -1.9 -2.3 -3.6 -2.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.4 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 10.4 6.5 2.9 6.1 2.3 8.0 3.6 5.5 1.2 6.8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.5 2.7 1.4 3.0 1.0 3.9 1.7 2.6 0.7 3.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.9 0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 2.3 1.2 2.8 0.9 4.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 29 20 -23 18 22 -4 3 8 -10 3 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 27 20 -26 20 20 -7 2 7 -8 1 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 34.5 36.7 41.2 41.9 39.7 44.3 55.8 54.1 64.1 85.4 147.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.5 3.1 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.8 4.6 4.2 5.4 7.2 10.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 76 83 90 97 95 104 137 129 126 138 205 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 40 35 44 47 42 50 66 62 68 70 96 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 62 56 80 73 58 66 85 74 80 85 114 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 23 26 24 25 28 26 34 36 40 50 97 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 11 12 12 12 13 16 17 22 25 46 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 18 21 19 17 17 21 20 26 31 54 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 68 72 59 59 71 60 62 66 63 58 66 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 16.1 13.7 0.2 1.8 2.8 4.7 5.8 6.0 8.0 6.5 10.4 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 27.8 25.1 26.6 25.3 24.6 25.2 26.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.0 25.0
Exchange rate ($) annual average 20.3 17.0 19.1 19.1 17.7 19.6 19.6 20.8 24.6 24.4 23.7 20.9 19.9
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A A A AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naFitch A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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122Figure 122: Credit ratings EGY Figure 123: Consensus forecasts Figure 126: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.7 4.9Moody's B3 Apr-15 (Caa1) = CPI (%) 15.0 11.8S&P B- Nov-13 (CCC+) + C/A bal. (% GDP) -4.0 -3.3Fitch B Dec-14 (B-) + Fiscal bal (%GDP) -8.7 -7.6Local currencyMoody's B3 Apr-15 (Caa1) = FX vs $, YE 17.0 naS&P B- Nov-13 (CCC+) + FX vs EUR, YE 21.4 naFitch B Dec-14 (B-) + Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 124: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 127: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$EGYPT 6 1/8 01/31/22 2,500 103.04 6.13 3.3 5.2 233.0 AM2736420EGYPT 5.577 02/21/23 1,250 100.76 5.58 4.1 5.4 246.6 AR2878379EGYPT 5 7/8 06/11/25 1,500 98.72 5.88 5.6 6.1 312.5 EK9601619EGYPT 4 3/4 04/16/26 1,000 99.97 4.75 6.5 4.8 400.0 AS0110302EGYPT 7 1/2 01/31/27 2,000 106.12 7.50 6.3 6.6 357.1 AM1560102EGYPT 6.588 02/21/28 1,250 99.22 6.59 7.0 6.7 368.3 AR2880565EGYPT 7 11/10/28 1,320 102.03 7.00 7.2 6.7 370.7 AL1601411EGYPT 5 5/8 04/16/30 1,000 99.25 5.63 8.5 5.7 465.1 AS1417482EGYPT 6 7/8 04/30/40 500 95.74 6.88 11.0 7.3 419.8 EI2334031EGYPT 8 1/2 01/31/47 2,500 107.55 8.50 11.0 7.8 477.9 AM2612894EGYPT 7.903 02/21/48 1,500 101.74 7.90 11.4 7.8 469.7 AR2881704LocalEGYGB 17.2 08/09/23 13,775 106.46 17.20 3.3 15.3 na EK9601619Figure 128: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)EGYGB 17.15 07/05/26 8,497 110.37 17.15 4.3 14.9 na EK9601619
EK9601619QZ1789192LW7423749
Figure 125: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 19 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 56
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 22% EU 26%US 5% China 13%China 2% US 6%Japan 1% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesSaudi Arabia 9% Turkey 5% Figure 129: CPI vs policy rateTurkey 6% Russia 4%UAE 5% Saudi Arabia 4%UK 4% Brazil 4%India 4% Korea 3%
Product ProductOther manufactures 24% Machinery and transport 27%Food items 18% Other machinery/transport 21%Fuels 18% Other manufactures 21%Chemicals 14% Food items 18%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 11% Fuels 14%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Egypt
12345678
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct-1
5
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct-1
6
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Egypt 2027 $ bond Egypt 2028 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
80
100
120
140
160
180
2004
8
12
16
20
24
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
EGP vs $ EGP vs EUREgypt REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
11Ap
r-11
Jul-1
1Oc
t-11
Jan-
12Ap
r-12
Jul-1
2Oc
t-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3Oc
t-13
Jan-
14Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4Oc
t-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5Oc
t-15
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6Oc
t-16
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Egypt 3M yield index Egypt 5Y yield indexEgypt 10Y yield index
48
12162024283236
Aug-
10Fe
b-11
Aug-
11Fe
b-12
Aug-
12Fe
b-13
Aug-
13Fe
b-14
Aug-
14Fe
b-15
Aug-
15Fe
b-16
Aug-
16Fe
b-17
Aug-
17Fe
b-18
Egypt CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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70
Figure 130: Egypt key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 128 (122) - Middle Corruption Rank: 117 (108) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 10 (14) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.1 7.2 4.7 5.1 1.8 2.2 3.3 2.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.0 6.0Private consumption (% YoY) 6.9 5.7 5.7 4.1 5.5 6.5 4.7 4.4 3.1 4.6 4.2 4.0 4.5Public consumption (% YoY) 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.2 8.4 7.0 3.9 2.5 -5.0 0.0Fixed capital formation (% ch YoY) 23.8 14.8 -10.2 7.7 -2.2 7.1 -7.8 1.4 9.8 19.6 7.7 8.5 15.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.2 8.7 9.4 9.2 10.4 12.4 13.0 13.4 12.9 12.7 12.2 11.1 9.7Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 783 942 1,096 1,269 1,442 1,675 1,860 2,130 2,444 2,708 3,478 4,415 5,207Nominal GDP (US$bn) 137 171 199 230 248 279 288 303 333 332 235 249 295Population (m) 74 75 77 79 81 82 85 87 89 90 95 97 99GDP per capita (US$) 1,861 2,272 2,582 2,918 3,078 3,383 3,400 3,498 3,736 3,682 2,477 2,572 2,971Gross national savings (% of GDP) 29.2 29.0 19.7 19.4 14.6 12.4 12.0 12.8 10.6 9.1 8.8 11.4 12.0Claims on other sectors (lcl bn) 431 467 471 504 521 560 599 682 846 1,362 1,520 1,900 2,356Claims on other sectors (% of GDP) 55.0 49.6 43.0 39.8 36.1 33.4 32.2 32.0 34.6 50.3 43.7 43.0 45.2Deposits (lcl bn) 650 747 810 892 957 1,024 1,187 1,429 1,734 2,116 3,042 3,663 4,306Loan to deposit ratio 66.3 62.5 58.2 56.5 54.4 54.7 50.4 47.7 48.8 64.4 50.0 51.9 54.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 11.0 11.7 16.2 11.7 11.1 8.7 6.9 10.1 10.9 10.2 23.3 21.4 11.6CPI (end-June % YoY) 8.6 20.2 10.0 10.7 11.8 7.3 9.8 8.2 11.4 14.0 29.8 11.4 11.9PPI (average % YoY) 17.7 2.5 5.0 15.9 7.5 0.7 6.5 -1.8 -1.4 25.8 23.6 13.1Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.9 -6.0 -6.2 -7.4 -9.6 -10.0 -12.9 -11.3 -10.9 -10.7 -11.4 -10.0 -7.6Consolidated primary balance -0.6 -2.4 -3.2 -3.2 -4.8 -4.9 -5.9 -4.2 -4.1 -3.0 -2.8 -1.1 0.5Total public debt 76.3 66.8 69.5 69.6 72.8 73.8 84.0 85.1 88.5 96.8 103.3 91.2 87.1External balanceExports (US$bn) 22.0 29.4 25.2 23.9 27.0 25.1 27.0 26.0 22.2 18.7 22.3 23.5 26.4Imports (US$bn) 38.3 52.8 50.3 49.0 54.1 59.2 57.7 60.2 61.3 56.3 57.3 56.0 61.6Trade balance (US$bn) -16.3 -23.4 -25.2 -25.1 -27.1 -34.1 -30.7 -34.2 -39.1 -37.6 -35.0 -32.5 -35.2Trade balance (% of GDP) -11.9 -13.7 -12.7 -10.9 -10.9 -12.2 -10.7 -11.3 -11.7 -11.3 -14.9 -13.0 -11.9Current account balance (US$bn) 2.3 0.9 -4.4 -4.3 -6.1 -10.1 -6.4 -2.8 -12.1 -19.8 -15.6 -11.6 -12.5Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.7 0.5 -2.2 -1.9 -2.5 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 -3.7 -6.0 -6.6 -4.7 -4.2Net FDI inflows (US$bn) 11.1 13.2 8.1 6.8 2.2 4.0 3.8 4.2 6.4 6.9 7.9 9.4 10.0Net FDI (% of GDP) 8.1 7.7 4.1 2.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 3.4 3.8 3.4C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9.7 8.3 1.9 1.1 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.5 -1.7 -3.9 -3.3 -0.9 -0.8Exports (%YoY, value) 19 33 -14 -5 13 -7 8 -4 -15 -16 19 5 13Imports (%YoY, value) 26 38 -5 -3 10 9 -3 4 2 -8 2 -2 10FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 30.1 32.1 30.9 31.8 22.5 15.2 14.5 16.3 19.5 17.1 30.7 34.5 33.0Import cover (months of imports) 9.4 7.3 7.4 7.8 5.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.6 6.4 7.4 6.4Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 30 34 32 34 35 34 43 46 48 56 79 87 86Gross external debt (% of GDP) 22 20 16 15 14 12 15 15 14 17 34 35 29Gross external debt (% of exports) 136 115 125 141 129 137 160 177 216 298 354 370 325Total debt service (US$bn) na na na 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6Total debt service (% of GDP) na na na 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2Total debt service (% of exports) na na na 11 10 10 10 11 13 19 17 20 21Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (%YoY average) 18.3 15.7 8.4 10.4 10.0 8.4 18.4 17.0 16.4 18.6 39.3 20.4 17.6Policy rate (%) end-Jun 8.8 10.5 9.0 8.3 8.3 9.3 9.8 8.3 8.8 11.8 18.8 15.8 13.83-month interest rate (calendar avg %) na na 11.3 9.9 10.2 13.1 13.3 10.9 11.4 11.8 17.5 18.0 15.0Exchange rate (EGP/€) end-Jun 7.71 8.36 7.82 7.14 8.66 7.67 9.13 9.72 8.51 9.84 20.67 21.82 22.96Exchange rate (EGP/€) annual average 7.47 8.12 7.57 7.67 7.95 8.04 8.37 9.63 8.85 9.05 16.71 21.31 22.48Exchange rate (EGP/US$) end-Jun 5.69 5.33 5.59 5.68 5.97 6.06 7.02 7.15 7.63 8.89 18.12 17.60 17.80Exchange rate (EGP/US$) annual average 5.72 5.51 5.52 5.52 5.82 6.01 6.46 7.02 7.35 8.15 14.81 17.70 17.67Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 B2 B2 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ B+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B- naFitch BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB- B+ B- B B B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts from Renaissance Capital Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
Egypt
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
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71
Estonia 213 EST 939 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 131: Estonia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/AA-/A+ EODB Rank: 12 (12) - Strong Corruption Rank: 21 (22) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 93 (92) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.7 -5.4 -14.7 2.3 7.6 4.3 1.9 2.9 1.7 2.1 4.9 3.9 3.2 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 39.3 30.7 20.7 21.3 25.1 29.1 26.9 27.1 24.9 24.2 25.4 27.3 29.3 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 4.6 5.5 13.5 16.7 12.3 10.0 8.6 7.4 6.2 6.8 5.8 6.3 6.7 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 16.2 16.5 14.1 14.7 16.7 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.3 21.1 23.0 24.9 26.5 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 22.3 24.3 19.7 19.5 23.2 23.1 25.1 26.3 22.6 23.3 26.0 30.8 33.3 NGDPD
Population (mn) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 LP
GDP per capita ($) 16,579 18,144 14,757 14,652 17,442 17,398 19,047 19,962 17,192 17,799 19,840 23,610 25,560 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 14.9 16.0 15.2 14.5 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.9 16.3 17.8 18.2 18.9 19.9Lending/GDP (%) 91.9 96.6 107.4 98.2 83.4 77.3 75.1 75.3 79.9 84.2 79.2 76.2 74.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.5 22.5 23.1 23.1 26.4 27.1 27.4 26.9 25.8 24.6 27.1 28.3 29.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.7 10.6 0.2 2.7 5.1 4.2 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.0 2.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 9.7 7.5 -1.9 5.4 4.1 3.6 2.0 0.1 -0.2 2.4 3.8 1.8 2.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.7 -2.7 -2.2 0.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 2.4 -3.1 -2.5 0.0 1.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 3.7 4.5 7.0 6.6 6.1 9.7 10.2 10.7 10.0 9.4 8.8 8.5 8.1 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 10 11.0 12.5 9.1 11.6 16.7 16.1 16.3 16.0 12.8 13.2 14.5 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 13 15.7 16.1 10.1 12.3 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.3 14.5 14.9 16.6 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -4.7 -3.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -2.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -21.0 -14.8 -5.5 -3.5 -3.2 -8.7 -8.5 -8.6 -7.5 -7.6 -8.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -3.3 -2.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.0 -8.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 -1.9 0.5 0.3 2.0 1.9 3.2 2.0 0.7 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 10.4 7.5 9.3 7.7 4.3 6.8 2.2 1.9 0.9 3.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.6 -1.1 11.9 9.5 5.7 4.8 2.7 2.2 2.9 5.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 13 -27 28 44 -4 1 -2 -20 3 10 na naImports (% YoY, value) 17 2 -37 21 42 4 2 -1 -21 3 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3.3 4.0 4.0 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.5 3.0 4.7 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 26 26 25 22 22 24 24 23 21 20 23 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 115 109 126 113 93 103 96 87 93 86 89 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 233 212 275 190 129 147 148 143 163 153 159 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 10 9 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 35 40 44 41 42 48 44 40 46 40 35 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 70 78 96 70 58 69 68 65 82 71 62 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 236 244 220 315 4957 3870 3657 2449 2578 2719 2680 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.7 5.9 2.0 3.9 na na 6.8 9.9 11.6 9.5 6.2 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.24 1.25
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A A- A AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naFitch A A- BBB+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Ethiopia 214 ETH 644 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 132: Ethiopia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B/B EODB Rank: 161 (159) - Weak Corruption Rank: 107 (108) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 17 (19) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 11.8 11.2 10.0 10.6 11.4 8.7 9.9 10.3 10.4 8.0 10.9 8.5 8.3 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 20.8 21.2 24.7 25.5 32.1 37.1 34.1 38.0 39.4 38.0 39.0 37.7 38.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 173 250 338 386 515 747 867 1,061 1,298 1,541 1,807 2,192 2,607 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 19.7 26.8 32.5 29.9 32.0 43.1 47.7 55.5 64.7 73.2 80.9 85.7 89.7 NGDPD
Population (mn) 79.1 80.3 81.6 82.9 84.2 85.6 87.0 88.3 89.8 91.2 92.7 94.1 95.6 LP
GDP per capita ($) 249 334 398 361 379 504 548 628 721 802 873 910 938 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naLending/GDP (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 21.9 20.8 15.4 24.5 33.1 31.2 28.1 30.7 32.4 32.7 32.1 31.2 32.3 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 17.2 44.4 8.5 8.1 33.2 24.1 8.1 7.4 10.1 7.3 9.9 11.2 8.6 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 18.4 39.2 7.1 14.6 35.9 15.0 7.7 7.1 10.0 6.7 13.6 10.0 8.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.6 -2.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.9 -2.6 -1.9 -2.3 -3.3 -2.5 -2.4 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -2.9 -2.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -1.6 -2.2 -1.5 -1.9 -2.9 -1.9 -1.9 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 46.8 41.7 37.8 40.5 45.3 37.7 42.9 46.8 54.0 55.0 56.2 58.3 56.7 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 5 6.0 7.8 9.0 9.7 9.9 13.4 14.6 18.3 20.4 20.0 19.3 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -4.7 -6.3 -7.4 -7.5 -7.5 -10.5 -11.0 -14.0 -15.8 -15.9 -15.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -23.9 -23.3 -22.9 -25.1 -23.3 -24.3 -23.0 -25.3 -24.5 -21.7 -18.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.8 -1.8 -2.2 -0.4 -0.8 -3.0 -2.8 -3.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -5.6 -5.7 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -6.7 -6.7 -1.4 -2.5 -6.9 -5.9 -6.4 -10.2 -9.0 -8.1 -6.5 -6.3 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 3.4 4.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.1 -6.3 -6.1 -0.5 -0.5 -6.3 -3.2 -2.6 -6.8 -4.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 10 23 1 41 12 18 26 17 5 -8 2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 18 31 15 8 2 35 9 25 11 -2 -3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.3 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.4 3.5 3.8 3.0 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.6 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.8 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 5 7 8 11 12 17 20 22 25 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 13 11 17 24 26 24 26 31 31 31 31 na na FM2_XDC
Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 206 185 345 321 342 361 338 397 447 536 583 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 11 7 7 8 14 15 18 18 23 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 10 13 6 8 12 19 28 22 27 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 12.1 13.7 14.5 17.1 22.4 22.3 24.2 25.4 22.3 23.3 25.2 31.7 36.4
Exchange rate ($) annual average 8.8 9.3 10.4 12.9 16.1 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.3 25.6 29.1
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - B B B B B naFitch - - - - - - - B B B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
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133Figure 133: Credit ratings GAB Figure 134: Consensus forecasts Figure 137: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Jul-17 (B1) – CPI (%) na naS&P NR Apr-16 (B) na C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B Oct-17 (B+) – Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Jul-17 (B1) – FX vs $, YE na naS&P NR Apr-16 (B) na FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Oct-17 (B+) – Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 135: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 138: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$GABON 6 ⅜ 12/12/24 1,500 98.29 6.38 4.5 6.7 383.9 EJ9753546GABON 6.95 06/16/25 700 100.42 6.95 5.4 6.9 391.2 EK9687071
Figure 139: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 136: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 3.5 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 2.4
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 24% EU 34%China 16% China 21%US 5% US 7%Japan 4% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesTrinidad and Tobago 7% Benin 5% Figure 140: CPI vs policy rateAustralia 7% Turkey 2%Korea 5% Thailand 2%Malaysia 3% Republic of Congo 2%India 2% UK 2%
Product ProductFuels 79% Machinery and transport 41%Agricultural raw materials 8% Other machinery/transport 37%Other ores and metals 5% Other manufactures 25%Other manufactures 3% Food items 17%Machinery and transport 3% Chemicals 10%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Gabon
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Gabon 2024 $ bond Gabon 2025 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
90
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100
105
110
115
120400
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XAF vs $ XAF vs EURGabon REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Gabon 3M yield index Gabon 12M yield index
-4-202468
10
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Gabon CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
74
Figure 141: Gabon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/NR/B EODB Rank: 167 (164) - Weak Corruption Rank: 117 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 1.7 -2.3 6.3 7.1 5.3 5.5 4.4 3.9 2.1 0.8 2.7 3.7Investment (% GDP) 26.3 22.8 29.1 26.1 23.8 29.1 33.3 35.9 34.8 34.2 31.5 30.9 31.8Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 5,962 6,945 5,738 7,111 8,582 8,766 8,691 8,988 8,503 8,311 8,834 9,439 9,740Nominal GDP ($bn) 12.5 15.6 12.2 14.4 18.2 17.2 17.6 18.2 14.4 14.0 15.2 17.5 18.1Population (mn) 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0GDP per capita ($) 8,652 10,426 7,854 8,934 10,891 9,903 9,761 9,956 7,754 7,453 7,972 9,030 9,234Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 628 622 602 624 851 1,067 1,429 1,385 1,347 1,292 948 na naLending/GDP (%) 10.5 9.0 10.5 8.8 9.9 12.2 16.4 15.4 15.8 15.5 10.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 39.9 44.4 33.5 41.0 47.8 47.0 40.5 43.5 29.2 24.1 26.7 29.3 29.9PricesCPI (average % YoY) -1.0 5.3 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.7 0.5 4.5 -0.1 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.5CPI (year-end, % YoY) -0.2 5.6 0.9 0.7 2.3 2.2 3.3 1.7 -1.2 4.1 3.0 2.8 2.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 8.1 11.0 6.8 2.7 1.7 6.2 -3.1 6.0 -1.1 -4.7 -1.8 0.8 1.0Primary government balance 10.1 12.6 8.2 4.1 2.8 7.3 -1.5 7.6 0.9 -2.4 1.0 3.2 3.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 39.2 20.1 26.0 21.3 21.4 21.4 31.1 34.1 44.7 64.2 61.1 59.3 59.3External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6.3 9.6 5.4 8.5 13.3 8.3 7.1 6.6 4.7 3.5 3.9 na naImports ($bn) 2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.8 3.9 4.7 4.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 na naTrade balance ($bn) 4.2 7.0 2.9 5.6 9.5 4.4 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.1 1.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 33.7 44.9 23.5 39.2 52.0 25.7 13.5 14.1 12.0 7.7 10.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 1.7 3.4 0.5 2.1 4.4 3.1 1.3 1.4 -0.8 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3Current account balance (% of GDP) 13.7 21.6 4.4 14.9 24.0 17.9 7.3 7.6 -5.6 -10.1 -4.8 -1.5 -1.9Net FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 5.0 4.7 3.5 3.8 4.8 4.4 5.6 4.3 5.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 15.8 26.6 9.1 18.4 27.8 22.7 11.7 13.1 -1.2 -5.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 5 52 -44 59 56 -38 -15 -7 -29 -25 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 21 -2 15 33 2 21 -15 -26 -18 -3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 1.9 0.8 1.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.0 9.0 9.6 7.2 6.8 7.3 7.7 7.4 7.6 3.9 5.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 4 4 4 4 5 5 8 8 10 10 8 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 35 23 31 31 29 30 46 47 67 71 55 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 69 37 71 53 39 62 115 129 208 286 216 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 7 12 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 6 12 8 5 8 14 12 22 48 0 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 31 33 38 34 27 34 32 56 212 0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 17 3 3 2 2 6 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 14 28 8 5 3 5 16 6 8 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 70 137 20 24 18 17 38 16 21 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.3 10.6 3.4 19.7 28.7 10.2 11.1 0.0 -0.2 -4.9 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 670 675
Exchange rate ($) annual average 479 446 471 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 541 538
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - Ba3 Ba3 B1 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ NR NR NR naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Gabon
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
75
142Figure 142: Credit ratings GEO Figure 143: Consensus forecasts Figure 146: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.3 4.5Moody's Ba2 Sep-17 = Ba3 CPI (%) 3.1 naS&P BB- Nov-11 = (B+) C/A bal. (% GDP) -9.4 -8.1Fitch BB- Dec-11 + (B+) Fiscal bal (%GDP) -3.0 -3.0Local currencyMoody's Ba2 Sep-17 = Ba3 FX vs $, YE na naS&P BB- Nov-11 = (B+) FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch BB- Dec-11 + (B+) Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 144: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 147: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$GEORG 6 ⅞ 04/12/21 500 107.85 6.88 2.7 4.0 120.0 EI6390690Corporate$Georgia O&G 6 ¾ 04/26/21 250 103.22 6.75 2.7 5.6 273.7 JK858046GRAIL 7 ¾ 07/11/22 500 107.93 7.75 3.5 5.6 271.9 EJ258411BGEOLN 6 07/26/23 350 100.95 6.00 4.4 5.8 287.3 LW951651GEOCAP 6 ⅛ 03/09/24 300 95.53 6.13 4.8 7.1 414.4 AR6075667lclGEBGG 11 06/01/20 500 100.00 11.00 1.7 10.4 na AN7382376
Figure 148: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 145: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 3 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 7
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 15% EU 24%China 6% China 8%US 5% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 3%Other key countries Other key countriesAzerbaijan 11% Turkey 17% Figure 149: CPI vs policy rateBulgaria 10% Russia 8%Turkey 8% Azerbaijan 7%Armenia 8% Ukraine 6%Russia 7% UAE 3%
Product ProductFood items 33% Machinery and transport 29%Other manufactures 19% Other manufactures 26%Other ores and metals 17% Other machinery/transport 22%Beverages and Tobacco 15% Fuels 14%Machinery and transport 11% Food items 14%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Georgia
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Georgia 2021 $ bond US generic 10y YtM
80
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1201.5
2.0
2.5
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3.5
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GEL vs $ GEL vs EURGeorgia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Georgia 12M auc. Yield Georgia 2y auc. YieldGeorgia 5y auc. Yield Georgia 10y auc. Yield
-5
0
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Georgia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
76
Figure 150: Georgia key economic indicators (Renaissance Capital forecasts)Ratings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 9 (16) - Strong Corruption Rank: 46 (44) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 71 (70) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 12.3 2.3 -3.8 6.3 7.2 6.1 3.3 4.8 2.9 2.8 5.0 4.4 4.5Industrial production (%YoY) 7.4 -7.6 -11.6 17.9 23.5 7.2 2.7 3.8 1.4 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1Unemployment rate year-end (%) 13.3 16.5 16.9 16.3 15.1 15.0 14.6 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.2Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 17.0 19.1 18.0 20.7 24.3 26.1 26.8 29.0 31.8 34.0 38.0 41.1 44.4Nominal GDP ($bn) 12.4 12.8 10.8 11.6 14.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 14.0 14.3 15.1 16.1 16.9Population (mn) 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7GDP per capita ($) 2,316 2,921 2,456 2,620 3,217 4,125 3,600 4,412 3,781 3,888 4,124 4,389 4,614Gross national saving (% of GDP) 14.4 5.1 2.6 11.6 13.6 18.1 19.5 19.1 20.1 19.1 21.8 23.9 25.3Loans to non-banking sector (lcl bn) 4.4 5.8 5.0 6.0 7.5 8.4 10.0 12.5 15.2 18.1 20.5 22.5 24.7Lending/GDP (%) 25.9 30.4 27.9 29.1 30.8 32.1 37.3 43.2 47.8 53.2 53.8 54.8 55.8Deposits (lcl bn) 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.8 7.4 8.2 10.3 12.4 15.5 18.3 21.1 22.3 23.9Loan to deposit ratio (%) 125.3 151.0 120.4 103.8 102.0 102.4 97.1 100.8 98.1 98.9 97.0 100.7 103.5PricesCPI (average %YoY) 9.2 10.0 1.7 7.1 8.5 -0.9 -0.6 3.1 4.0 2.1 5.9 3.7 3.5CPI (end-year %YoY) 11.0 5.5 3.0 11.2 2.0 -1.4 2.4 2.0 4.9 1.7 6.0 3.6 3.5Nominal wages, GEL 368 535 557 598 636 712 773 818 900 940 980 1,040 1,090Wage Rate (%YoY nominal) 32.4 45.4 4.1 7.3 6.4 11.9 8.6 5.8 10.0 4.4 4.3 6.1 4.8Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Budget deficit (standard definition) -4.8 -6.5 -9.2 -6.7 -3.6 -2.8 -2.4 -3.1 -3.6 -3.9 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0Budget Deficit (Total Balance) GFS-2001 -4.5 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 -2.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 -1.7 -1.4Total public debt (central govt) 25.5 31.2 41.0 42.0 37.0 35.0 36.7 35.6 41.4 44.6 42.1 45.0 48.0External balanceExports ($bn) 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.1 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.4Imports ($bn) 5.0 6.3 4.3 5.1 6.7 7.7 7.7 8.3 7.0 6.8 7.5 8.4 9.0Trade balance (US$mn) -2.9 -3.8 -2.4 -2.6 -3.5 -4.2 -3.5 -4.3 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -4.4 -4.7Trade balance (% of GDP) -23.4 -30.0 -22.3 -22.3 -24.2 -26.6 -21.6 -26.1 -27.9 -27.3 -25.6 -27.2 -27.6Current account balance ($bn) -2.1 -3.1 -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.0 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6Current account balance (% of GDP) -17.1 -24.5 -11.5 -11.4 -13.6 -11.7 -5.9 -10.3 -12.9 -12.9 -8.7 -9.9 -9.5Net FDI ($bn) 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7Net FDI (% of GDP) 13.5 11.1 6.3 5.8 6.2 3.9 5.1 7.9 9.3 9.8 10.6 9.9 10.1C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.6 -13.4 -5.2 -5.5 -7.3 -7.8 -0.7 -2.4 -3.6 -3.1 1.8 0.0 0.6Exports (%YoY, value) 25.3 16.3 -22.0 30.0 32.2 7.6 21.2 -5.8 -22.5 -6.5 24.1 11.0 10.0Imports (%YoY, value) 35.2 25.7 -31.5 17.7 33.6 14.4 0.3 7.3 -15.7 -2.9 10.0 12.0 8.0FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2Import cover (months of imports) 3.3 2.8 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.2Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$mn) 5.8 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.6 13.2 13.2 13.8 15.1 15.8 16.9 17.5 18.1Gross external debt (% of GDP) 46.7 59.9 82.0 86.7 80.0 83.4 81.8 83.9 108.0 110.5 111.6 108.6 107.3Gross external debt (% of exports) 277 316 466 410 355 377 311 345 487 545 469 438 412Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (%YoY) year-end 53.6 -11.7 16.6 27.0 27.8 7.6 33.2 10.1 5.5 12.9 29.4 14.0 11.0Key policy rate (%) year-end 8.0 5.0 7.5 6.8 5.3 3.8 4.0 8.0 6.5 7.3 6.8 6.3Exchange rate (GEL/€) year-end 2.33 2.36 2.42 2.35 2.16 2.18 2.40 2.27 2.61 2.80 3.09 3.34 3.58Exchange rate (GEL/€) annual average 2.29 2.19 2.33 2.36 2.35 2.12 2.21 2.35 2.52 2.61 2.83 3.16 3.42Exchange rate (GEL/US$) year-end 1.59 1.67 1.69 1.77 1.67 1.65 1.74 1.87 2.40 2.66 2.58 2.65 2.75Exchange rate (GEL/US$) annual average 1.37 1.49 1.67 1.78 1.69 1.65 1.66 1.76 2.28 2.37 2.51 2.55 2.63Credit rating history Latest
Moody's - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B B B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch BB- B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- na
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, National bank of Georgia, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
Georgia
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
77
151Figure 151: Credit ratings GHA Figure 152: Consensus forecasts Figure 155: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 7.1 6.1Moody's B3 Mar-15 (B2) = CPI, avg. (%) 10.7 9.2S&P B- Oct-14 (B) + C/A bal. (% GDP) -4.0 -4.0Fitch B Oct-13 (B+) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -5.2 -4.5Local currencyMoody's B3 Mar-15 (B2) = FX vs $, YE 4.7 5.8S&P B- Oct-14 (B) + FX vs EUR, YE 5.9 7.5Fitch B Oct-13 (B+) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 153: Selected benchmark issuesAmt out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 156: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$GHANA 9 ¼ 09/15/22 750 114.00 9.25 2.9 5.6 143.8 QZ5112508GHANA 7 ⅞ 08/07/23 1,000 109.02 7.88 4.3 5.9 292.5 EJ7706660GHANA 8 ⅛ 01/18/26 1,000 107.40 8.13 5.1 6.9 371.9 EK4901865GHANA 10 ¾ 10/14/30 1,000 130.15 10.75 7.2 7.1 381.4 QJ1388462LocalGHGB 24 ½ 10/22/18 995 103.92 24.50 0.4 16.0 na QJ3120798GHGB 17 ½ 08/17/20 102 102.66 17.50 1.8 16.0 na EJ8082558GHGB 24 ¾ 07/19/21 1,384 121.21 24.75 2.2 16.0 na LW9892610
Figure 157: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 154: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 11 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 13
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 19% China 33%China 10% EU 16%US 3% US 5%Japan 1% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 27% Nigeria 14% Figure 158: CPI vs policy rateSwitzerland 12% India 4%UK 3% Ivory Coast 3%Malaysia 2% UK 3%Turkey 1% South Africa 2%
Product ProductGemstones and non-monetary gold41% Machinery and transport 39%Food items 31% Other machinery/transport 33%Fuels 14% Other manufactures 24%Other ores and metals 4% Food items 16%Agricultural raw materials 3% Chemicals 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Ghana
13579
11131517
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Ghana 2023 $ bond Ghana 2026 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
50607080901001101201
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GHS vs $ GHS vs EURGhana REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Ghana 3M (auction) yield Ghana 1y (auction) yieldGhana 5y (auction) yield
810121416182022242628
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Ghana CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
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Figure 159: Ghana key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 120 (108) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 30 (33) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 8.4 3.5 7.9 14.0 9.3 7.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 8.5 5.7 6.0Investment (% YoY) 6.1 15.1 4.5 5.6 43.5 11.0 6.6 0.8 1.0 -2.0 3.0 2.5 2.5Industry, value added (% YoY) 20.1 21.5 20.7 25.7 12.8 17.0 13.3 18.8 16.7 14.5 13.7 14.7 15.8Oil production (mn b/d) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2Nominal GDP (GHSbn) 23.2 30.2 36.6 46.0 59.8 75.0 93.4 113 137 167 205 242 281Nominal GDP (EURbn) 18.2 19.0 18.4 24.3 27.7 31.5 33.6 28.0 32.9 38.6 41.7 43.0 45.4Nominal GDP ($bn) 24.9 27.9 25.6 32.2 38.6 40.5 44.7 36.9 36.3 42.4 46.5 51.6 56.0Population (mn) 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 29.7GDP per capita ($) 1,133 1,240 1,108 1,359 1,588 1,626 1,748 1,408 1,348 1,539 1,644 1,780 1,886Gross national saving (% of GDP) 12.1 9.9 16.0 17.3 3.8 5.3 1.3 9.3 9.0 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.7Bank credit to private sector (GHSbn) 4.2 6.0 7.1 8.1 9.8 13.1 17.0 24.2 30.3 35.0 38.9 43.9 50.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 18.0 19.9 19.3 17.5 16.5 17.5 18.2 21.3 22.1 20.9 19.0 18.2 17.9Loan to deposit ratio (%) 87.4 89.0 81.3 69.6 62.5 69.1 71.8 69.0 70.0 69.0 71.0 72.0 72.0PricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.7 16.5 19.3 10.8 8.7 9.6 10.7 15.5 17.2 17.5 12.3 10.4 9.9CPI (year-end % YoY) 12.7 18.1 16.0 8.6 8.6 8.8 13.5 17.0 17.7 15.4 11.8 10.5 9.3PPI (average % YoY) 32.4 15.4 18.8 18.7 17.2 9.4 35.8 13.4 11.6 10.0 8.0 7.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance -7.2 -8.0 -7.2 -10.1 -7.5 -11.3 -12.0 -10.9 -5.2 -8.9 -5.8 -4.5 -4.5Total public debt 31.0 33.5 36.1 46.3 42.6 47.9 57.2 70.2 72.2 73.4 70.5 66.1 62.8External balanceExports ($bn) 4.2 5.3 5.9 7.9 12.8 13.6 13.8 12.7 10.4 11.1 13.8 14.9 15.9Imports ($bn) 8.1 10.3 8.0 10.9 16.0 16.7 17.6 14.6 13.5 13.0 12.6 13.0 14.2Trade balance ($bn) -3.9 -5.0 -2.1 -3.0 -3.2 -3.2 -3.8 -1.9 -3.1 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8Trade balance (% of GDP) -15.6 -17.9 -8.4 -9.4 -8.2 -7.9 -8.6 -5.1 -8.6 -4.5 2.5 3.7 3.2Current account balance ($bn) -2.0 -3.1 -1.7 -2.8 -3.7 -3.9 -5.7 -3.7 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.9 -11.0 -6.6 -8.6 -9.5 -9.6 -12.8 -10.0 -7.8 -6.5 -4.5 -4.6 -4.3Net FDI ($bn) 1.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.5Net FDI (% of GDP) 3.9 9.7 11.3 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.2 9.1 7.7 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.2Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.0 -1.3 4.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.9 -5.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 2.0 2.0 2.0Exports (% YoY, value) 12 26 12 34 62 6 1 -8 -18 7 24 8 7Imports (% YoY, value) 19 27 -22 36 46 5 5 -17 -7 -4 -3 3 9Foreign exchange reserves (ex. gold, $bn) 2.8 2.0 3.2 4.2 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.3Import cover (months of imports) 4.2 2.3 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 5 6 7 9 11 14 16 18 19 22 24 25 26Gross external debt (% of GDP) 21 20 28 29 29 34 36 48 53 53 52 49 46Gross external debt (% of exports) 123 108 122 118 88 102 118 139 184 202 176 171 160Total debt service ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2Total debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4Total debt service (% of exports) 10 12 11 8 6 9 10 13 17 19 18 17 17Interest & exchange ratesPolicy rate, % year-end 13.5 17.0 18.0 13.5 12.5 15.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 25.5 20.0 18.0 16.0Broad money supply (% YoY) 36.3 40.2 26.9 30.4 40.0 25.0 22.0 20.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 20.0Credit to the private sector (% YoY) 64.0 44.0 17.3 14.3 22.1 33.5 29.2 42.4 25.2 15.6 11.0 13.0 15.03-month interest rate (T-bill year-end %) 9.8 17.8 25.2 13.8 10.3 18.7 21.9 23.9 23.5 21.6 15.0 11.0 11.0Exchange rate (GHS/EUR) year-end 1.41 1.77 2.05 1.99 2.13 2.51 3.28 3.90 4.13 4.45 5.34 5.90 6.51Exchange rate (GHS/EUR) annual average 1.27 1.59 1.99 1.90 2.16 2.38 2.78 4.05 4.17 4.34 4.91 5.62 6.21Exchange rate (GHS/$) year-end 0.97 1.27 1.43 1.49 1.64 1.90 2.38 3.22 3.81 4.24 4.52 4.84 5.21Exchange rate (GHS/$) annual average 0.93 1.08 1.43 1.43 1.55 1.85 2.09 3.07 3.78 3.94 4.40 4.68 5.03Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B2 B3 B3 B3 na naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B B B B B- B- B- B- na naFitch B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B B na na
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Ghana, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
Ghana
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Greece 218 GRC 174 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 160: Greece key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 67 (61) - Middle Corruption Rank: 59 (69) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 56 (55) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.3 -0.3 -4.3 -5.5 -9.1 -7.3 -3.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 1.4 2.0 1.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 27.1 24.5 18.3 17.0 15.1 12.8 11.6 11.9 9.8 10.6 11.7 12.7 13.8 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 8.4 7.8 9.6 12.7 17.9 24.4 27.5 26.5 24.9 23.6 21.5 19.8 18.0 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 233 242 238 226 207 191 181 179 176 174 178 183 188 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 319 356 331 300 288 246 240 237 196 193 201 227 236 NGDPD
Population (mn) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 LP
GDP per capita ($) 28,900 32,198 29,819 26,973 25,897 22,172 21,805 21,727 18,018 17,876 18,637 21,144 22,077 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 218 238 227 269 260 239 228 223 214 203 191 180 174Lending/GDP (%) 93.8 98.5 95.4 119.0 125.5 125.1 126.1 124.7 121.5 116.5 107.7 98.3 92.8Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 11.9 9.4 6.0 5.7 5.1 9.0 9.6 10.3 9.6 9.5 10.9 12.0 13.4 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.0 4.2 1.3 4.7 3.1 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 1.1 0.7 1.1 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.9 2.2 2.5 5.2 2.2 0.3 -1.8 -2.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.7 -10.2 -15.1 -11.2 -10.3 -6.6 -3.6 -4.0 -2.9 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -2.2 -5.4 -10.1 -5.3 -3.0 -1.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.5 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 103.1 109.4 126.7 146.3 172.1 159.6 177.9 180.2 178.8 183.5 181.9 191.3 181.8 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 22 26.6 31.3 25.1 28.2 34.0 35.5 36.2 36.0 28.7 28.1 32.6 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 67 84.9 96.6 74.1 69.2 68.1 63.7 62.4 64.2 48.3 48.8 56.7 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -58.3 -65.3 -49.0 -41.0 -34.1 -28.3 -26.2 -28.2 -19.6 -20.7 -24.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -18.3 -18.3 -14.8 -13.7 -11.8 -11.5 -10.9 -11.9 -10.0 -10.7 -12.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -48.4 -53.8 -40.8 -34.1 -28.8 -9.4 -4.9 -3.9 -0.4 -2.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.2 -15.1 -12.3 -11.4 -10.0 -3.8 -2.0 -1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.1 4.5 2.4 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 1.7 -0.3 3.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.7 -0.1 1.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -14.5 -13.8 -11.6 -11.3 -9.6 -3.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 18 -20 12 20 4 2 -1 -20 -2 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 14 -23 -7 -2 -6 -2 3 -25 1 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.6 0.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 454 505 589 545 480 578 575 515 480 455 486 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 142 142 178 182 167 235 240 217 246 236 242 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 1,711 1,614 2,341 1,932 1,413 1,631 1,588 1,431 1,673 1,617 1,489 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 100 156 193 244 235 216 159 157 169 147 126 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 31.5 43.7 58.2 81.5 81.5 87.9 66.5 66.1 86.5 76.5 63.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 378 498 766 866 692 610 440 436 589 524 388 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 15,911 45,272 12,387 18,659 18,811 17,019 11,234 8,360 7,728 5,472 4,084 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.6 14.3 3.9 -10.8 -14.5 na 2.5 -0.3 -17.8 2.2 na na na Over9
Exchange rate (€) annual average 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.24 1.25
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A2 Ba1 Ca C Caa3 Caa1 Caa3 Caa3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A BBB+ BB+ CC B- B- B CCC+ B- AA- AA- naFitch A A BBB+ BBB- CCC CCC B- B CCC CCC A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Ghana, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
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Hungary 219 HUN 944 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 161: Hungary key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 48 (41) - Strong Corruption Rank: 66 (57) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 67 (63) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 0.4 0.9 -6.6 0.7 1.7 -1.6 2.1 4.2 3.4 2.2 4.0 3.8 3.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 24.1 24.6 20.2 20.5 20.3 19.3 20.9 23.2 21.7 19.7 22.4 24.0 23.8 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 7.4 7.9 10.1 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.2 7.8 6.8 5.1 4.0 3.8 3.5 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 25,680 27,194 26,425 27,225 28,305 28,781 30,247 32,592 34,324 35,420 38,183 40,744 43,057 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 140 158 131 131 141 128 135 140 123 129 152 164 173 NGDPD
Population (mn) 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 LP
GDP per capita ($) 13,893 15,729 13,019 13,074 14,106 12,858 13,645 14,191 12,462 13,137 15,531 16,723 17,718 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 16,488 19,898 18,969 19,610 19,674 17,114 15,877 15,493 14,055 14,200 14,565 14,943 15,840Lending/GDP (%) 64.2 73.2 71.8 72.0 69.5 59.5 52.5 47.5 40.9 40.1 38.1 36.7 36.8Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.1 17.6 19.5 20.9 21.2 21.2 24.9 24.8 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.3 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.0 6.0 4.2 4.9 3.9 5.7 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 2.4 2.7 3.3 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.4 3.5 5.6 4.7 4.1 5.0 0.4 -0.9 0.9 1.8 2.1 3.2 3.2 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.0 -3.6 -4.6 -4.5 -5.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -1.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 65.3 71.2 77.5 80.1 80.3 77.9 76.3 75.2 74.0 73.3 69.9 67.4 65.9 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 75 96 109 83 95 112 104 108 111 99 102 114 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 78 96 109 78 88 102 95 100 105 92 94 107 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -0.1 -0.5 5.3 7.3 9.9 8.4 7.4 5.7 6.6 8.0 6.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -0.3 4.1 5.6 7.0 6.6 5.5 4.1 5.3 6.2 4.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -9.9 -11.2 -1.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.2 2.1 4.3 7.7 5.4 4.1 4.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -7.1 -0.8 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.8 1.5 3.5 6.0 3.6 2.5 2.4 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 4.0 6.3 2.0 2.2 6.3 14.4 3.4 7.5 1.3 -5.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.8 4.0 1.5 1.7 4.5 11.3 2.5 5.3 1.0 -4.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.1 0.7 2.0 5.2 13.0 6.3 6.8 4.6 1.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 14 -24 15 18 -8 4 3 -11 3 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 14 -29 13 16 -7 5 5 -12 2 14 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 24.0 33.8 44.1 44.8 48.7 44.5 46.4 41.9 33.0 25.8 27.9 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.0 3.7 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 4.8 4.3 3.3 3.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 177 224 243 210 213 207 203 186 159 147 153 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 127 142 186 160 151 162 150 133 129 114 100 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 186 206 292 220 189 200 189 168 161 144 134 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 33 28 29 33 32 23 23 20 16 14 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 24 18 22 25 22 18 17 14 13 11 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 35 26 35 34 28 22 21 18 16 14 12 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 139 83 65 73 65 52 50 47 48 54 49 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 7.5 10.0 6.3 5.8 7.0 5.8 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.1 8.6 3.6 2.9 5.9 -3.3 6.5 4.7 6.3 6.2 8.3 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 252 253 282 276 280 290 297 309 310 304 283 309 312
Exchange rate ($) annual average 184 172 202 208 201 225 224 233 279 274 251 249 249
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A3 Baa1 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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India 220 IND 534 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 162: India key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-u/BBB- EODB Rank: 100 (130) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 16 (16) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.8 3.9 8.5 10.3 6.6 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.2 7.1 6.7 7.4 7.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 38.1 34.3 36.5 36.5 39.6 38.3 34.0 34.3 31.8 30.3 31.7 32.0 32.1 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 50 56 65 78 87 99 112 125 138 153 168 187 211 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,239 1,224 1,365 1,708 1,823 1,828 1,857 2,039 2,102 2,274 2,611 2,848 3,155 NGDPD
Population (mn) 1,150 1,167 1,184 1,201 1,217 1,234 1,250 1,266 1,283 1,300 1,317 1,334 1,352 LP
GDP per capita ($) 1,077 1,049 1,153 1,423 1,498 1,482 1,486 1,610 1,639 1,749 1,983 2,135 2,334 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 22.4 27.3 30.6 38.6 44.8 51.6 58.8 64.7 71.4 75.6 80.1 83.3 91.6Lending/GDP (%) 44.8 48.5 47.3 49.6 51.3 51.9 52.4 51.9 51.9 49.5 47.7 44.5 43.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 36.8 32.0 33.7 33.7 35.4 33.5 32.3 33.0 30.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.2 9.1 11.0 9.5 9.5 10.0 9.4 5.8 4.9 4.5 3.6 5.0 5.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.3 9.4 10.5 9.2 8.8 10.5 7.7 5.3 5.3 3.6 4.7 5.2 4.9 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.5 -9.0 -9.5 -8.6 -8.3 -7.6 -7.0 -7.2 -7.0 -6.7 -6.9 -6.5 -6.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.3 -4.3 -5.0 -4.4 -4.0 -3.2 -2.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.9 -2.1 -1.7 -1.8 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 74.0 74.5 72.5 67.5 69.6 69.1 68.5 67.8 69.6 68.9 70.2 68.9 67.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 120 153 195 165 223 307 297 315 318 266 262 295 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 177 235 321 258 351 465 490 468 461 392 356 435 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -81 -126 -92 -128 -158 -193 -153 -143 -126 -94 -140 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -6.6 -10.3 -6.8 -7.5 -8.7 -10.6 -8.2 -7.0 -6.0 -4.2 -5.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -15.7 -27.9 -38.4 -47.9 -78.2 -87.8 -32.3 -26.8 -22.1 -15.3 -51.2 -66.6 -67.4 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.3 -2.3 -2.8 -2.8 -4.3 -4.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -2.0 -2.3 -2.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 25.3 47.1 35.6 27.4 36.2 24.2 28.2 34.6 44.2 44.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.0 3.8 2.6 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.2 -2.3 -3.5 -0.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28 27 -15 35 38 -3 6 1 -16 -2 13 na naImports (% YoY, value) 33 37 -20 36 33 5 -5 -2 -15 -9 22 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 267 247 265 274 271 271 276 303 334 341 389 na naImport cover (months of imports) 13.7 9.2 12.4 9.4 7.0 6.6 7.1 7.9 10.2 11.5 10.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 206 230 253 306 345 394 427 458 479 456 513 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 17 19 19 18 19 22 23 22 23 20 20 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 135 118 153 137 112 133 135 144 180 174 174 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 39 46 47 61 76 93 93 86 82 84 98 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 25 24 28 27 25 31 29 27 31 32 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 15 19 18 22 28 34 34 28 24 25 25 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 39 31 17 24 29 30 39 92 50 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 5 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 26 16 10 11 10 10 12 29 19 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 15 13 6 9 11 11 14 30 15 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 7.8 6.5 4.8 6.3 8.5 8.0 7.8 8.0 6.8 6.3 6.0 6.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 22.6 20.1 18.0 18.7 16.0 11.2 14.9 10.7 10.7 6.6 10.1 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 55.2 67.7 66.2 60.5 66.7 70.0 80.4 81.2 72.7 74.3 72.7 81.5 83.9
Exchange rate ($) annual average 40.3 46.0 47.4 45.6 47.9 54.4 60.5 61.1 65.5 67.1 64.4 65.8 66.9
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB-u BBB-u BBB-u naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Indonesia 221 IDN 536 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 163: Indonesia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 72 (91) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (90) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 24 (23) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 7.4 4.7 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 28.7 33.0 31.2 32.9 33.0 35.1 33.8 34.6 34.1 33.8 33.4 33.9 34.2 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.3 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 4,297 5,415 6,011 6,864 7,832 8,616 9,546 10,570 11,526 12,407 13,589 14,814 16,147 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 470 559 578 755 893 919 917 891 861 932 1,015 1,075 1,153 NGDPD
Population (mn) 228 231 234 238 242 245 249 252 255 259 262 265 269 LP
GDP per capita ($) 2,064 2,418 2,465 3,178 3,689 3,745 3,684 3,534 3,369 3,604 3,876 4,052 4,291 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1,081 1,413 1,544 1,910 2,382 2,917 3,527 3,962 4,318 4,711 5,087 5,494 5,934Lending/GDP (%) 25.1 26.1 25.7 27.8 30.4 33.9 36.9 37.5 37.5 38.0 37.4 37.1 36.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.4 33.0 33.0 33.6 33.2 32.4 30.7 31.5 32.0 32.0 31.7 32.0 32.3 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.7 9.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.4 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.0 11.1 3.0 7.0 3.8 3.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.6 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.9 0.1 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -1.6 -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.9 1.7 -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 32.3 30.3 26.5 24.5 23.1 23.0 24.8 24.7 27.5 28.3 28.9 29.6 30.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 101 114 137 116 158 203 190 183 176 150 137 168 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 61 74 129 96 136 177 192 187 178 143 136 155 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 39.8 8.3 20.2 22.1 26.1 -1.7 -4.1 -1.9 7.7 1.3 13.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 8.5 1.5 3.5 2.9 2.9 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.1 1.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 6.8 0.1 10.6 5.3 1.7 -24.4 -29.1 -27.5 -17.5 -17.0 -17.3 -20.7 -21.7 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.4 0.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 -2.7 -3.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 6.9 9.3 4.9 13.8 19.2 19.1 18.8 21.9 15.5 2.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.5 1.7 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.9 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 20 -15 36 29 -7 -4 -3 -15 -9 23 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 73 -25 41 31 8 -3 -5 -20 -5 14 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 55 50 64 93 107 109 96 109 103 113 127 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.9 4.6 7.9 8.2 7.2 6.8 6.2 7.3 8.7 10.0 9.8 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 142 155 173 202 225 252 266 294 310 319 352 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 28 30 27 25 27 29 33 36 34 35 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 124 114 149 128 111 133 146 167 206 233 209 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 19 20 24 33 38 44 46 46 38 41 49 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 16 15 21 21 19 23 25 26 26 30 29 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 34 41 38 36 36 41 48 42 37 36 39 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 24 22 25 32 31 36 42 62 56 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 7 6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 21 16 21 20 15 19 23 35 37 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 44 44 39 34 29 33 44 57 54 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 8.0 9.3 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 7.5 7.8 7.5 4.8 4.3 4.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.3 14.9 13.0 15.4 16.4 15.0 12.8 11.9 9.0 10.0 8.3 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 12,530 14,259 14,514 12,059 12,218 12,056 13,834 15,759 14,864 14,727 15,120 17,085 17,563
Exchange rate ($) annual average 9,140 9,694 10,409 9,088 8,774 9,375 10,414 11,862 13,391 13,306 13,383 13,781 14,006
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- naFitch BB- BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Iran 222 IRN 429 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 164: Iran key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/WD EODB Rank: 124 (120) - Middle Corruption Rank: 130 (131) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 17 (19) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.7 -0.1 0.0 5.7 3.1 -7.7 -0.3 3.2 -1.6 12.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 41.6 43.5 42.1 40.7 38.6 41.5 41.2 40.4 34.9 33.5 36.2 36.2 36.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 10.5 10.4 11.9 13.5 12.3 12.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 12.4 11.8 11.7 11.6 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 3,263 3,894 4,073 4,990 6,364 7,284 9,843 11,260 11,129 12,723 14,772 17,926 20,742 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 352 406 411 482 577 389 396 423 375 404 432 419 413 NGDPD
Population (mn) 71.4 72.3 73.2 74.2 75.2 76.0 76.9 78.5 79.5 80.5 81.4 82.4 83.3 LP
GDP per capita ($) 4,929 5,621 5,609 6,505 7,681 5,118 5,152 5,396 4,723 5,027 5,305 5,086 4,961 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1,528 1,762 2,021 2,620 3,396 3,918 4,743 6,003 6,823 8,688 10,426 12,511 14,513Lending/GDP (%) 46.8 45.2 49.6 52.5 53.4 53.8 48.2 53.3 61.3 68.3 70.6 69.8 70.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 50.5 48.4 44.3 44.9 49.1 47.5 47.9 43.6 35.2 37.6 40.4 43.2 43.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 18.4 25.3 10.8 12.3 21.5 30.6 34.7 15.6 11.9 9.1 9.9 12.1 11.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 22.2 17.7 10.4 19.8 20.6 41.3 19.6 16.2 8.4 11.8 10.2 11.2 13.4 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 6.5 0.6 0.8 2.6 0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -2.7 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 6.6 0.6 0.8 2.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -1.0 2.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 11.4 9.1 10.1 11.7 8.9 12.1 10.7 11.8 41.6 48.9 40.9 53.9 49.2 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 67 78.1 105.2 64.1 85.3 111.9 83.3 63.8 64.3 39.3 46.8 63.5 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 41 45.5 58.8 50.1 66.8 68.9 63.2 53.0 69.1 56.2 60.8 74.4 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 32.6 46.4 14.0 18.4 43.0 20.1 10.8 -4.9 -16.8 -14.1 -10.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 9.3 11.4 3.4 3.8 7.4 5.2 2.7 -1.2 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 31.5 20.3 8.8 20.4 60.3 23.4 26.5 13.6 1.2 16.3 18.4 29.2 26.0 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 9.0 5.0 2.1 4.2 10.4 6.0 6.7 3.2 0.3 4.0 4.3 7.0 6.3 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.7 3.0 2.1 2.1 3.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9.5 5.5 2.9 5.0 11.2 7.2 7.5 3.7 0.9 4.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 16 35 -39 33 31 -26 -23 1 -39 19 36 na naImports (% YoY, value) 11 29 -15 33 3 -8 -16 30 -19 8 22 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 55 44 38 32 24 14 12 9 8 7 6 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 11 9 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 70 42 60 38 21 17 19 15 21 15 10 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 15 10 10 10 9 3 2 2 2 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 9 15 12 8 4 3 3 5 7 4 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na 0.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na #N/A
Exchange rate (€) annual average 12,716 14,100 13,835 13,726 15,354 24,067 32,983 35,330 32,906 34,818 38,641 53,056 62,961
Exchange rate ($) annual average 9,276 9,586 9,921 10,345 11,026 18,715 24,830 26,594 29,645 31,457 34,202 42,796 50,210
Credit rating history LatestMoody's na na na na na na na na na na na na naStandard & Poor's na na na na na na na na na na na na naFitch na na na na na na na na na na na na naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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165Figure 165: Credit ratings IRQ Figure 166: Consensus forecasts Figure 169: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Prior Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Caa1 Aug-17 - = CPI (%) na naS&P B- Sep-15 - = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B- Aug-15 - = Fiscal bal (%GDP)na naLocal currencyMoody's Caa1 Aug-17 - = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Sep-15 - = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - - = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 167: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 170: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$IRAQ 6.752 03/09/23 1,000 100.17 6.75 4.0 6.7 381.6 AO6083155IRAQ 5.8 01/15/28 2,700 94.68 5.80 4.7 6.5 423.2 EF2306852
UV3543443
Figure 171: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 168: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 30 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 16
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 23% China 19%Euro area 22% EU 9%US 8% US 5%Japan 2% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 20% Turkey 20% Figure 172: CPI vs policy rateKorea 11% Syria 19%Syria 3% Russia 4%Taiwan 2% Korea 3%Singapore 2% Oman 3%
Product ProductFuels 98% Machinery and transport 34%Gemstones and non-monetary gold1% Other manufactures 31%Food items 0% Other machinery/transport 25%Chemicals 0% Food items 20%Other manufactures 0% Iron and steel 9%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Iraq
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IQD vs $ IQD vs EURIraq REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Figure 173: Iraq key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/B-/B- EODB Rank: 168 (165) - Weak Corruption Rank: 169 (166) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.9 8.2 3.4 6.4 7.5 13.9 7.6 0.7 4.8 11.0 -0.8 3.1 4.9Investment (% GDP) 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 26.9 25.7 24.4 20.6 17.4 18.3 19.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 111 157 131 162 217 254 274 274 210 203 234 264 276Nominal GDP ($bn) 89 132 112 139 186 218 235 235 180 172 198 223 233Population (mn) 28.7 29.4 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.6 33.4 36.0 36.9 37.9 38.9 39.9 40.9GDP per capita ($) 3,091 4,472 3,702 4,474 5,849 6,693 7,021 6,517 4,869 4,533 5,088 5,601 5,709Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 2.8 4.4 5.1 8.9 12.7 20.5 23.3 25.5 26.5 28.4 na na naLending/GDP (%) 2.6 2.8 3.9 5.5 5.8 8.0 8.5 9.3 12.7 14.0 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.7 34.8 10.6 23.7 33.0 27.2 28.1 28.3 18.0 12.0 18.1 18.5 17.4PricesCPI (average % YoY) 30.8 2.7 -2.2 2.4 5.6 6.1 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 2.0 2.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.7 6.8 -4.4 3.3 6.0 3.6 3.1 1.6 2.3 -1.0 0.4 2.0 2.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 7.8 -0.9 -12.8 -4.2 4.7 4.1 -5.8 -5.4 -12.3 -13.9 -2.3 0.3 -0.6Primary government balance 7.3 -1.0 -12.6 -3.7 5.5 4.5 -5.4 -5.1 -11.7 -13.2 -1.2 1.9 0.8Total public debt (% of GDP) 120.8 75.5 87.4 53.5 40.7 34.8 31.2 32.0 55.1 64.4 58.0 54.7 54.4External indicatorsExports ($bn) 28 36 58 38 49 75 90 85 82 51 46 64 na naImports ($bn) 11 11 19 23 26 33 38 43 42 36 30 35 na naTrade balance ($bn) 24.7 39.6 14.8 23.1 41.7 52.0 42.4 39.6 15.3 16.0 29.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 27.8 30.1 13.3 16.7 22.5 23.8 18.1 16.9 8.5 9.3 14.9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -3.0 16.7 -12.9 2.3 20.2 11.0 2.7 6.1 -11.6 -14.7 1.4 0.4 -3.7Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.4 12.7 -11.5 1.6 10.9 5.1 1.1 2.6 -6.5 -8.6 0.7 0.2 -1.6Net FDI ($bn) 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.9 3.4 5.1 4.8 3.5 -5.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 -3.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.3 14.1 -10.1 2.6 11.9 6.6 3.3 4.6 -4.5 -12.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 29 62 -35 30 52 21 -6 -4 -37 -10 38 na naImports (% YoY, value) 7 67 21 14 26 16 12 0 -14 -16 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 31.3 49.9 44.1 50.4 60.7 68.7 76.1 62.9 51.0 41.6 45.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 33.2 31.7 23.1 23.2 22.2 21.7 21.5 17.8 16.9 16.4 15.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 16 15 17 18 20 20 18 22 20 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 12 14 12 10 9 8 8 12 12 10 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 47 28 41 35 24 22 23 22 43 44 30 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 1 2 2 2 1 3 4 3 3 4 0 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 5 0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 29.5 30.1 32.9 19.5 4.6 16.2 3.5 -9.0 na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,720 1,755 1,632 1,552 1,629 1,499 1,549 1,549 1,294 1,306 1,335 1,465 1,482
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1,255 1,193 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,166 1,166 1,166 1,166 1,180 1,182 1,182 1,182
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - B- B- B- B- naFitch - - - - - - - - B- B- B- B- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Iraq
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174Figure 174: Credit ratings CIV Figure 175: Consensus forecasts Figure 178: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Ba3 Nov-15 (B1) = CPI (%) na naS&P - - (-) na C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B+ Dec-15 (B) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Ba3 Nov-15 (B1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P - - (-) na FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B+ Dec-15 (B) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 176: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 179: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$IVYCST 5 ⅜ 07/23/24 500 98.21 5.38 5.1 5.7 279.2 EK3927382IVYCST 6 ⅜ 03/03/28 1,000 101.20 6.38 6.6 6.2 322.9 EK7716880IVYCST 5 ¾ 12/31/32 1,969 96.27 5.75 5.9 6.4 359.6 EI2021067
Figure 180: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 177: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 10 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 8
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 30% EU 25%US 9% China 14%China 1% US 2%Japan 0% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesNigeria 6% Nigeria 22% Figure 181: CPI vs policy rateBurkina Faso 5% Bahamas 5%India 5% India 4%Ghana 4% Thailand 2%Switzerland 4% UK 2%
Product ProductFood items 52% Machinery and transport 28%Fuels 19% Other machinery/transport 24%Agricultural raw materials 8% Fuels 24%Machinery and transport 7% Food items 17%Other machinery/transport 7% Other manufactures 16%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Ivory Coast
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Figure 182: Ivory Coast key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/-/B+ EODB Rank: 139 (142) - Weak Corruption Rank: 103 (108) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 29 (24) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.8 2.5 3.3 2.0 -4.2 10.1 9.3 8.8 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.1Investment (% GDP) 9.9 12.1 8.7 13.4 4.0 16.1 20.7 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.1 22.6 24.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 9,750 10,848 11,464 12,325 12,113 13,677 15,446 17,461 19,595 21,562 23,446 25,472 27,714Nominal GDP ($bn) 20 24 24 25 26 27 31 35 33 36 40 48 53Population (mn) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.3GDP per capita ($) 1,055 1,229 1,197 1,195 1,201 1,221 1,388 1,531 1,398 1,495 1,617 1,880 2,016Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,485 1,652 1,887 2,146 2,121 2,360 2,862 3,507 4,543 5,191 5,954 6,787 7,737Lending/GDP (%) 15.2 15.2 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.3 18.5 20.1 23.2 24.1 25.4 26.6 27.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 9.3 14.0 15.4 15.3 14.4 14.9 19.4 21.2 19.5 19.6 19.9 21.1 22.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.9 6.3 1.0 1.4 4.9 1.3 2.6 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.7 2.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.5 9.0 -1.7 5.1 2.0 3.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 -0.2 1.1 2.0 2.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.5 -0.3 -1.4 -1.8 -4.0 -3.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.8 -3.9 -4.3 -3.7 -3.0Primary government balance 1.2 1.4 0.1 -0.3 -2.2 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.2Total public debt (% of GDP) 74.0 70.8 64.2 63.0 69.2 45.0 43.4 44.8 47.3 47.0 46.4 48.0 46.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 8 8.1 9.9 10.3 10.3 11.1 10.9 13.8 12.8 11.9 10.1 11.7 na naImports ($bn) 6 6.7 7.9 7.0 7.9 6.7 10.0 12.7 11.1 9.6 8.4 8.9 na naTrade balance ($bn) 1.4 2.0 3.3 2.4 4.4 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.7 2.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 6.8 8.0 13.6 9.6 17.0 3.3 3.3 4.9 7.1 4.7 6.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.1 0.5 1.6 0.5 2.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.7 1.9 6.6 1.9 10.4 -1.2 -1.4 1.4 -0.6 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.4 3.7 8.2 3.2 11.5 0.0 -0.1 2.7 0.7 0.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -1 22 5 0 8 -2 27 -7 -7 -15 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 18 -11 12 -15 49 28 -13 -14 -13 7 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 13 12 13 12 13 5 6 7 8 8 11 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 65 49 53 49 50 20 19 19 23 23 27 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 164 120 126 119 116 49 43 51 64 84 94 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 13 10 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 11 11 7 7 7 8 8 7 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 31.8 6.1 20.8 19.1 9.5 6.4 11.6 14.1 17.8 11.0 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656
Exchange rate ($) annual average 479 446 471 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 529 523
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - B B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Ivory Coast
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Jordan 224 JOR 439 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 183: Jordan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B+/- EODB Rank: 103 (118) - Middle Corruption Rank: 59 (57) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 34 (30) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.2 7.2 5.5 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 30.3 29.9 26.3 25.5 23.2 21.7 20.7 21.2 19.2 18.9 20.3 21.2 22.5 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 13.1 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.9 12.2 12.6 11.9 13.1 15.3 na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 12.1 15.6 16.9 18.8 20.5 22.0 23.9 25.4 26.6 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.8 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 17.1 22.0 23.8 26.4 28.8 31.0 33.6 35.9 37.6 38.7 40.5 42.6 44.8 NGDPD
Population (mn) 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.5 LP
GDP per capita ($) 2,990 3,754 3,983 4,323 4,615 4,850 5,152 5,375 5,506 5,549 5,678 5,838 6,011 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 11.1 12.6 12.8 13.7 15.1 16.0 17.3 17.9 18.7 20.6 22.5 24.0 25.2Lending/GDP (%) 91.6 80.9 75.5 73.2 73.5 72.9 72.3 70.2 70.3 75.1 78.3 79.7 79.5Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 13.5 20.5 21.1 18.4 13.0 6.5 10.3 14.0 10.2 9.5 11.6 12.7 14.6 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.7 14.0 -0.7 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.9 -0.9 -0.8 3.3 1.5 2.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.1 9.0 2.7 5.7 2.9 6.0 3.1 1.7 -1.6 0.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.0 -4.4 -8.9 -5.6 -6.8 -9.6 -11.2 -10.1 -5.1 -3.4 -2.5 -0.4 -0.2 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -2.2 -2.1 -6.7 -3.5 -4.7 -7.0 -8.2 -6.5 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 3.1 3.3 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 73.8 60.2 64.8 67.1 70.7 80.7 86.7 89.0 93.4 95.1 95.6 93.5 90.8 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 5 5.5 6.2 5.0 5.9 6.7 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.8 5.4 6.3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 12 13.5 17.0 14.2 15.6 18.9 20.8 22.0 22.9 20.5 16.7 20.3 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -8.0 -10.8 -9.2 -9.6 -12.2 -12.7 -15.3 -15.6 -13.7 -11.3 -14.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -46.7 -49.0 -38.6 -36.4 -42.3 -41.0 -45.4 -43.6 -36.5 -29.2 -34.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2.9 -2.1 -1.2 -1.9 -3.0 -4.7 -3.5 -2.6 -3.4 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -16.8 -9.4 -5.2 -7.1 -10.3 -15.2 -10.4 -7.3 -9.1 -9.3 -8.7 -8.5 -7.9 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.6 2.8 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 15.3 12.9 10.1 6.4 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.6 3.4 4.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.5 3.5 4.9 -0.7 -5.1 -10.3 -5.1 -1.7 -5.7 -5.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 6 13 -19 18 13 20 -16 7 -7 -20 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 17 26 -16 9 22 10 6 4 -11 -18 22 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.5 8.6 11.7 13.1 11.5 8.1 13.2 15.3 15.2 14.0 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.7 6.0 9.9 10.1 7.3 4.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 10.1 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 15 14 15 17 18 19 24 25 26 27 29 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 88 63 61 65 61 61 70 69 70 70 72 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 272 222 289 288 261 232 349 342 388 503 464 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 7 9 9 10 10 11 13 12 12 12 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 44 39 36 37 36 34 38 35 31 30 29 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 134 138 169 163 152 131 189 171 173 213 188 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 99 100 73 74 89 131 97 81 77 82 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 13 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 20 46 14 13 14 12 14 18 31 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 15 34 6 6 8 12 7 9 14 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 6.8 6.0 4.5 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 4.8 5.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 10.6 17.3 9.3 11.5 8.1 3.4 9.7 6.9 8.1 4.0 0.2 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 0.97 1.04 0.99 0.94 0.99 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.79 0.78 0.80 0.88 0.89
Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB BB BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ naFitch - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
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184Figure 184: Credit ratings KAZ Figure 185: Consensus forecasts Figure 188: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 3.5 3.2Moody's Baa3 Apr-16 = (Baa2) CPI (%) 6.1 5.6S&P BBB- Feb-16 = (BBB) C/A bal. (% GDP) -2.2 -2.1Fitch - - = (BBB+) Fiscal bal (%GDP) -1.5 -1.3Local currencyMoody's Baa3 Apr-16 = (Baa2) FX vs $, YE 310 naS&P BBB- Feb-16 = (BBB) FX vs EUR, YE 391 naFitch BBB Apr-16 = (A-) Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 186: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 189: KazPrime rateSovereign ($)KAZAKS 3 ⅞ 10/14/24 1,500 100.57 3.88 5.7 3.8 83.6 EK5325858KAZAKS 5 ⅛ 07/21/25 2,500 106.83 5.13 6.0 4.0 107.7 AF2793467KAZAKS 4 ⅞ 10/14/44 1,000 98.61 4.88 14.7 5.0 192.9 EK5167292KAZAKS 6 ½ 07/21/45 1,500 119.65 6.50 13.7 5.1 211.3 AF2793459KAZNMH 4 ⅝ 05/24/23 961 98.15 4.63 4.4 5.0 213.8 EJ6857530Sovereign (EUR)KAZNMH 3.255 05/22/19 600 102.20 3.26 1.0 1.1 139.7 EK2695774Corporate ($)KZOKZ 7 05/05/20 1,371 107.26 7.00 1.8 3.2 51.8 EI2387682KZOKZ 4.4 04/30/23 407 99.71 4.40 4.4 4.5 155.9 EJ6525244KZOKZ 5 ¾ 04/19/47 1,250 95.69 5.75 13.7 6.1 303.8 AN1049112DBKAZ 4 ⅛ 12/10/22 1,103 100.06 4.13 4.1 4.1 121.5 EJ4594531HSBKKZ 7 ¼ 01/28/21 500 108.92 7.25 2.5 3.8 99.4 EI5457003KKB 5 ½ 12/21/22 750 99.81 5.50 4.0 5.5 265.2 EJ4852087Figure 190: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)KTZKZ 4.85 11/17/27 780 99.45 4.85 7.4 4.9 193.8 AQ0209306KTZKZ 6.95 07/10/42 1,100 109.15 6.95 11.9 6.2 317.4 EJ2667560Corporate (other)DBKAZ 9 ½ 12/14/20 100,000 104.71 9.50 2.2 7.5 na AQ242461KTZFIN 8 ¾ 06/07/22 (RUB) 15,000 99.80 8.75 3.2 8.9 122.3 AN8612615
Figure 187: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 46 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 34Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 38% China 26%China 15% EU 17%Japan 2% US 2%US 2% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesRussia 12% Russia 33% Figure 191: CPI vs policy rateUzbekistan 3% Uzbekistan 3%Romania 3% Turkey 2%Turkey 3% Ukraine 2%Iran 3% Belarus 2%
Product ProductFuels 61% Machinery and transport 36%Non-Ferrous Metals 10% Other manufactures 30%Other manufactures 9% Other machinery/transport 27%Iron and steel 8% Chemicals 13%Other ores and metals 5% Food items 11%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Kazakhstan
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KZT vs $ KZT vs EURKazakhstan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Kazakhstan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 192: Kazakhstan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 36 (35) - Strong Corruption Rank: 122 (131) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 65 (51) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.9 3.3 1.2 7.3 7.2 4.6 5.8 4.1 1.2 1.4 4.0 3.6 3.5Private consumption (% YoY) 10.9 7.8 0.6 11.8 10.9 11.0 12.6 1.5 2.0 1.1 3.6 3.8 3.6Government consumption (% YoY) 14.0 2.6 1.0 2.7 11.3 13.2 1.7 9.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.5Investment (% YoY) 17.3 1.0 -0.8 3.8 3.9 9.1 4.9 4.4 1.0 3.0 4.8 4.5 4.4Industrial production (% YoY) 6.2 2.6 2.7 9.6 3.8 0.7 2.3 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 7.1 3.5 4.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) 7.3 6.6 6.6 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0Nominal GDP (KZTbn) 12,850 16,053 17,008 21,816 28,243 31,015 35,999 39,676 40,884 46,971 51,567 56,843 62,185Nominal GDP (EURbn) 76 91 83 112 134 157 178 166 165 124 140 139 141Nominal GDP ($bn) 105 133 115 148 188 204 220 221 183 137 154 172 183Population (mn) 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.5GDP per capita ($) 6,772 8,514 7,165 9,070 11,357 12,119 12,933 12,710 10,358 7,673 8,462 9,311 9,382Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.5 32.2 25.8 26.3 28.3 25.7 25.1 28.6 26.6 22.3 22.8 24.4 25.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 69.0 57.5 56.7 41.6 37.9 38.6 37.8 36.4 38.0 33.2 32.7 32.0 32.5Loan to deposit ratio % 220 201 164 133 134 137 136 125 100 90 94 96 97PricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.7 17.3 7.3 7.1 8.4 5.1 5.8 6.71 6.6 14.7 7.5 6.4 5.7CPI (end-year % YoY) 18.8 9.5 6.2 7.8 7.4 6 4.8 7.4 13.6 8.5 7.1 5.8 5.5PPI (average % YoY) 12.1 38.4 -20.1 27 27.3 3.8 -0.3 9.6 -20.2 15.5 14.2 8.4 8Wage rates (% YoY, nominal) 30.6 14.1 11.4 14.6 16.1 12.4 7.5 10.9 4.1 13.7 6.5 6 6.5Fiscal balanceConsolidated govt. balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.1 -2.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -1.5 -1.2Total public debt (% of GDP) 7.7 9.8 16.5 17.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 14.1 19.4 19.7 20.9 22.5 23.2External balanceExports ($bn) 47.8 72.0 43.9 61.4 85.2 86.9 83.4 80.3 46.0 37.3 49.2 53.0 56.0Imports ($bn) 32.8 38.4 28.9 32.9 40.3 49.1 49.7 44.1 33.6 27.9 31.7 35.5 41.0Trade balance ($bn) 15.0 33.6 15.0 28.5 44.8 37.9 33.7 36.2 12.4 9.4 17.5 17.5 15.0Trade balance (% of GDP) 14.3 25.2 13.0 19.2 23.8 18.6 15.3 16.4 6.8 6.9 11.4 10.2 8.2Current account balance ($bn) -8.4 6.3 -4.1 1.4 10.2 1.0 1.3 6.1 -5.1 -8.9 -4.7 -5.5 -6.0Current account balance (% of GDP) -8.0 4.7 -3.6 0.9 5.4 0.5 0.6 2.8 -2.8 -6.5 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3Net FDI ($bn) 12.0 16.8 14.3 7.5 13.8 13.6 10.0 7.2 6.4 17.0 4.1 6.0 6.0Net FDI (% of GDP) 11.4 12.6 12.4 5.1 7.3 6.7 4.5 3.3 3.5 12.4 2.7 3.5 3.3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3.4 17.3 8.8 6.0 12.8 7.2 5.1 6.0 0.7 5.9 -0.4 0.3 0.0Exports (% YoY, value) 37 50 -39 40 39 2 -4 -4 -43 -19 32 8 6Imports (% YoY, value) 54 17 -25 14 23 22 1 -11 -24 -17 14 12 15Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 38.6 47.4 47.5 59.3 73.0 86.2 95.5 102.5 91.3 90.7 88.0 93.0 99.0Import cover (months of imports) 14.1 14.8 19.7 21.6 21.7 21.1 23.1 27.9 32.6 39.1 33.3 31.4 29.0Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 97 108 113 118 125 137 149 158 153 164 170 174 180Gross external debt (% of GDP) 92 81 98 80 67 67 67 71 84 119 110 101 98Gross external debt (% of exports) 203 150 257 193 147 158 178 196 333 439 346 328 321Total debt service ($bn) 25 32 30 21 23 22 25 26 25 26 28 29 30Total debt service (% of GDP) 24 24 26 14 12 11 11 12 14 19 18 17 16Total debt service (% of exports) 53 44 69 34 26 25 29 32 54 70 57 55 54Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 25.7 30.6 15.5 23.1 21.3 7.3 1.6 -8.2 8.1 46.4 24.0 16.0 12.0NBK refinancing rate (% year-end) 11.0 10.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 16.0 12.0 10.3 8.5 8.010-year yield (avg %) 5.1 6.0 7.1 6.9 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.4 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.5Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) year-end 176 168 213 197 192 199 212 225 371 351 395 422 455Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) annual average 168 177 206 196 205 192 202 239 248 379 368 409 442Exchange rate (KZT/$) year-end 121 121 148 147 148 151 154 182 341 334 335 335 350Exchange rate (KZT/$) annual average 123 120 148 147 147 149 152 179 223 342 326 330 340Credit rating history Current
Moody's WR WR WR WR WR WR WR Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB na
Source: NBK, Agency of Statistics of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan, World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
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193Figure 193: Credit ratings KEN Figure 194: Consensus forecasts Figure 197: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 5.5 5.9Moody's B2 Feb-18 (B1) = CPI (%) 5.3 5.6S&P B+ Nov-10 (B) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -5.9 -6.0Fitch B+ Dec-07 (-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -7.4 -6.3Local currencyMoody's B2 Feb-18 (B1) = FX vs $, YE 107.0 109.0S&P B+ Nov-10 (B) = FX vs EUR, YE 134.8 141.7Fitch B+ Jul-16 (BB-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 195: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 198: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$KENINT 5 7/8 06/24/19 750 101.82 5.88 1.1 4.2 164.8 EK3388940KENINT 6 7/8 06/24/24 2,000 104.13 6.88 4.9 6.1 310.6 EK3389005KENINT 7 1/4 02/28/28 1,000 103.62 7.25 6.9 6.7 372.8 AR2642478KENINT 8 1/4 02/28/48 1,000 103.89 8.25 11.2 7.9 485.6 AR2648533LocalKENGB 12.371 06/19/23 37,386 100.40 12.37 3.6 12.3 na EJ7309788KENGB 12.18 01/15/24 35,584 99.33 12.18 3.9 12.3 na EK015836KENGB 11 09/06/27 24,425 90.60 11.00 5.5 12.7 na EJ3728163
Figure 199: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 196: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 6 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 16
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 15% China 30%US 8% EU 9%China 1% US 5%Japan 1% Japan 5%Other key countries Other key countriesUganda 11% India 15% Figure 200: CPI vs policy rateTanzania 8% UAE 6%UK 6% South Africa 3%Pakistan 4% Saudi Arabia 3%DR Congo 4% UK 3%
Product ProductFood items 44% Machinery and transport 31%Other manufactures 22% Other manufactures 26%Agricultural raw materials 12% Other machinery/transport 24%Chemicals 8% Fuels 14%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 8% Chemicals 13%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Kenya
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KES vs $ KES vs EURKenya REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Kenya CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)
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Figure 201: Kenya key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B+/B+ EODB Rank: 80 (92) - Middle Corruption Rank: 143 (145) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 23 (16) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 6.9 0.2 3.3 8.4 6.1 4.5 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.8 4.4 4.6 5.0Private consumption (%YoY) 7.3 -1.3 5.0 7.2 2.8 5.7 8.3 7.6 6.1 6.2 2.5 3.0 3.5Government consumption (%YoY) 3.5 2.5 3.8 9.2 10.6 7.3 1.1 8.2 7.9 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.5Investment (%YoY) 18.5 13.6 9.5 2.8 7.7 6.0 6.5 7.5 8.1 8.0 7.0 6.5 6.5Industry, value added (%YoY) 7.1 4.7 2.8 7.9 6.7 3.5 5.8 6.1 6.7 5.5 4.6 5.0 5.0Nominal GDP (KESbn) 2,151 2,483 2,864 3,169 3,726 4,255 4,745 5,398 6,261 7,159 8,142 9,142 10,269Nominal GDP (€bn) 23.3 24.4 26.6 30.2 30.1 39.2 41.5 46.6 57.1 64.1 70.7 72.2 75.9Nominal GDP ($bn) 32.0 35.9 37.1 40.0 42.0 50.4 55.1 61.3 63.7 70.5 78.9 86.7 93.7Population (mn) 35.7 36.7 37.7 38.5 39.5 40.7 41.8 43.0 44.2 45.5 46.7 48.0 49.4GDP per capita ($) 896 978 983 1,040 1,062 1,237 1,319 1,427 1,441 1,552 1,689 1,805 1,898Gross national saving (% of GDP) 15.1 12.7 14.4 12.4 9.4 9.6 11.3 12.2 10.9 15.5 15.4 14.0 13.5Bank credit to private sector (lcl bn) 541 686 758 915 1,191 1,360 1,580 2,035 2,402 2,570 2,596 2,699 2,888Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 25.1 27.6 26.5 28.9 32.0 32.0 33.3 37.7 38.4 35.9 31.9 29.5 28.1Loan to deposit ratio 71.8 73.3 75.3 74.0 80.0 77.3 74.0 76.0 77.0 75.0 77.0 78.0 78.0PricesCPI (average %YoY) 4.3 16.2 9.4 3.8 13.6 9.6 5.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 7.8 5.9 7.8CPI (end-year %YoY) 5.6 17.8 5.3 4.5 18.6 3.2 7.1 6.0 8.0 6.0 4.5 9.0 7.8Fiscal balance (% of GDP)*General government budget balance -3.2 -4.2 -4.9 -4.8 -5.8 -5.5 -6.1 -8.5 -7.4 -8.9 -8.0 -7.0 6.5General government primary balance -0.8 -1.8 -2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -2.9 -3.3 -4.8 -5.3 -5.7 -5.1 -3.2 -2.3Total public debt 43.1 44.4 45.1 47.5 44.8 43.2 41.5 46.7 51.3 52.7 56.2 57.0 58.0External balanceExports ($bn) 4.1 5.0 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.0Imports ($bn) 8.4 10.7 9.5 12.1 14.8 16.4 16.8 17.6 15.6 15.6 16.2 17.6 18.4Trade balance ($bn) -4.3 -5.6 -5.0 -6.9 -9.0 -10.3 -11.0 -11.4 -9.6 -9.8 -10.4 -11.8 -12.5Trade balance (% of GDP) -13.3 -15.7 -13.5 -17.3 -21.5 -20.4 -19.9 -18.6 -15.0 -13.9 -13.2 -13.6 -13.3Current account balance ($bn) -1.1 -2.0 -1.6 -2.5 -4.5 -4.3 -4.9 -6.3 -4.3 -3.9 -5.3 -6.9 -6.0Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -5.6 -4.4 -6.3 -10.6 -8.5 -8.8 -10.3 -6.8 -5.5 -6.7 -8.0 -6.4Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.3 0.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.1 -5.3 -2.8 -4.5 -8.7 -6.8 -8.0 -9.1 -5.1 -3.5 -4.8 -5.9 -4.4Exports (%YoY, value) 18 22 -11 14 12 6 -5 6 -3 -4 0 2 4Imports (%YoY, value) 24 27 -11 27 22 11 3 5 -12 0 17 10 5Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3.4 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 5.4 6.2 6.9 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1Import cover (months of imports) 4.8 3.2 4.9 4.0 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 8 8 9 9 10 14 16 23 27 32 36 40 40Gross external debt (% of GDP) 24 21 25 23 25 28 30 37 43 45 46 46 42Gross external debt (% of exports) 182 151 207 176 179 233 279 370 452 553 631 697 661Total debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 2 1 2 2 2Total debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 2 5 5 6 3 2 3 3 2Total debt service (% of exports) 11 8 9 5 11 39 51 59 29 25 43 34 34Interest & exchange ratesCentral bank rate (CBR), %YE 8.8 8.5 7.0 6.0 18.0 11.0 8.5 8.5 11.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 20.9 13.0 16.0 21.7 19.1 14.9 14.7 16.9 14.0 17.0 3.0 6.0 9.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 16.4 27.2 19.5 21.3 30.1 11.1 16.2 28.8 18.0 7.0 1.0 4.0 7.05Y yield (%avg) 11.5 10.5 10.5 9.5 14.5 13.5 12.9 12.6 13.2 12.7 13.0 12.5 12.5Exchange rate (KES/EUR) year-end 93 109 109 108 110 113 119 110 113 108 122 131 140Exchange rate (KES/EUR) annual average 92 102 108 105 124 109 114 116 110 112 115 127 135Exchange rate (KES/$) year-end 64 78 76 81 85 86 86 91 102 103 103 108 112Exchange rate (KES/$) annual average 67 69 77 79 89 85 86 88 98 102 103 105 110Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ na
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Central Bank of Kenya, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
Kenya
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Korea 227 KOR 542 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 202: Korea key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/AA/AA- EODB Rank: 4 (5) - Strong Corruption Rank: 51 (52) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 94 (95) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 32.6 33.0 28.5 32.0 33.0 31.0 29.1 29.3 28.9 29.2 31.4 31.0 30.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.3 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 1,043 1,104 1,152 1,265 1,333 1,377 1,429 1,486 1,564 1,637 1,739 1,829 1,923 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,123 1,002 902 1,094 1,202 1,223 1,306 1,411 1,383 1,411 1,538 1,693 1,778 NGDPD
Population (mn) 48.7 49.1 49.3 49.6 49.9 50.2 50.4 50.7 51.0 51.2 51.5 51.7 51.9 LP
GDP per capita ($) 23,061 20,431 18,292 22,087 24,080 24,359 25,890 27,811 27,105 27,535 29,891 32,775 34,269 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1,571 1,829 1,869 1,962 2,103 2,184 2,250 2,420 2,604 2,789 2,966 3,144 3,333Lending/GDP (%) 150.6 165.6 162.3 155.1 157.8 158.5 157.4 162.8 166.5 170.4 170.6 171.9 173.3Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.6 33.3 32.2 34.7 34.5 35.2 35.3 35.3 36.6 36.2 36.5 36.5 36.4 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.6 4.1 2.8 3.0 4.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.2 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 1.4 1.2 -0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 28.7 28.2 31.4 30.8 31.5 32.2 35.4 37.3 39.5 40.0 39.8 38.9 38.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 325 371 422 363 466 555 548 560 573 527 496 562 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 309 357 435 323 425 524 520 516 526 436 406 473 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 14.7 -13.4 40.2 41.2 31.0 28.3 44.0 47.2 90.3 89.8 89.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1.3 -1.3 4.5 3.8 2.6 2.3 3.4 3.3 6.5 6.4 5.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 11.8 3.2 33.6 28.9 18.7 50.8 81.1 84.4 105.9 99.2 78.5 92.4 104.0 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.1 0.3 3.7 2.6 1.6 4.2 6.2 6.0 7.7 7.0 5.1 5.5 5.8 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 8.8 11.2 9.0 9.5 9.8 9.5 12.8 9.3 5.0 10.8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 1.4 4.7 3.5 2.4 4.9 7.2 6.6 8.0 7.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 14 -14 28 19 -1 2 2 -8 -6 13 na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 22 -26 32 23 -1 -1 2 -17 -7 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 262 201 270 291 304 323 342 359 363 366 384 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.8 5.5 10.0 8.2 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.2 10.0 10.8 9.8 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 339 316 345 356 400 409 424 424 396 384 419 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 32 38 33 33 33 32 30 29 27 27 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 91 75 95 76 72 75 76 74 75 77 75 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 166 149 149 136 140 128 112 116 104 105 116 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 15 16 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 45 35 41 29 25 23 20 20 20 21 21 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 63 74 55 47 46 40 33 32 29 29 30 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 5.0 3.0 2.0 2.5 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 10.8 12.0 9.9 6.0 5.5 4.8 4.6 8.1 8.2 7.1 5.1 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 1,274 1,621 1,781 1,534 1,543 1,449 1,454 1,399 1,256 1,284 1,277 1,339 1,357
Exchange rate ($) annual average 929 1,102 1,277 1,156 1,108 1,126 1,095 1,053 1,131 1,160 1,130 1,080 1,082
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 A1 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's A A A A A A+ A+ A+ AA- AA AA AA naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Kuwait 228 KWT 443 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 203: Kuwait key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/AA/AA EODB Rank: 96 (102) - Middle Corruption Rank: 85 (75) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.0 2.5 -7.1 -2.4 10.9 7.9 0.4 0.6 -1.0 2.2 -2.5 1.3 3.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 20.5 17.6 18.0 17.7 13.5 12.8 14.4 16.3 25.4 27.0 24.1 22.6 23.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 32.6 39.6 30.5 33.1 42.5 48.7 49.4 46.3 34.5 33.5 36.3 40.8 42.3 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 115 147 106 115 154 174 174 163 115 111 120 135 140 NGDPD
Population (mn) 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 LP
GDP per capita ($) 33,733 42,827 30,415 32,216 41,657 45,726 44,754 40,278 27,036 25,869 27,319 29,880 30,109 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 21.8 25.5 27.0 27.5 28.2 29.0 31.1 32.7 35.3 36.3 37.5 39.0 40.5Lending/GDP (%) 67.0 64.2 88.6 83.2 66.4 59.6 63.0 70.7 102.4 108.2 103.2 95.4 95.8Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 57.2 58.5 42.3 50.8 57.1 58.7 55.9 50.2 37.1 32.6 26.0 28.4 27.2 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.5 6.3 4.6 4.5 4.9 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.7 3.5 1.5 2.5 3.7 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.5 9.0 2.1 6.0 3.1 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.5 1.5 2.5 3.7 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 37.4 20.2 27.5 26.0 33.3 32.4 34.1 22.4 5.6 0.6 4.0 7.1 6.2 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 25.6 11.1 18.1 16.9 26.5 25.4 25.8 12.7 -7.5 -13.8 -9.8 -5.5 -6.4 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 7.0 5.4 6.7 6.2 4.6 3.6 3.1 3.4 4.7 9.9 20.6 26.7 32.4 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 49 56.2 82.6 49.6 65.0 91.8 109.5 105.0 96.4 54.0 41.8 48.3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 17 21.5 26.5 19.1 22.8 28.8 29.1 29.9 31.7 32.1 31.0 33.8 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 34.7 56.1 30.5 42.2 63.0 80.4 75.1 64.7 21.9 10.8 14.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 30.3 38.1 28.7 36.5 40.9 46.2 43.1 39.8 19.1 9.7 12.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 42.2 60.2 28.3 36.7 66.1 79.1 70.2 54.4 4.0 -5.0 2.4 7.8 5.0 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 36.8 40.9 26.7 31.8 42.9 45.5 40.3 33.4 3.5 -4.5 2.0 5.8 3.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.3 3.3 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 36.9 40.9 27.7 32.9 45.1 47.1 41.1 34.0 3.8 -4.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 15 47 -40 31 41 19 -4 -8 -44 -23 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 24 23 -28 20 26 1 3 6 1 -4 9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 16.7 17.1 20.3 21.2 25.8 28.9 29.4 32.1 28.3 31.0 33.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.3 7.8 12.7 11.2 10.8 11.9 11.8 12.2 10.6 12.0 11.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 43 43 30 29 24 27 25 28 29 34 44 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37 29 28 25 16 16 15 17 25 31 36 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 76 52 61 45 27 25 24 29 53 81 90 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 17 13 16 14 11 13 10 14 13 18 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 9 15 12 7 8 6 8 11 17 13 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 16 32 21 12 12 10 14 24 44 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 100 77 78 65 42 45 35 43 45 59 48 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 6.3 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.1 15.9 13.2 3.0 8.2 6.5 10.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 4.3 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.37 0.38
Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.28 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA naFitch AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA naNote: 2017-19E exchange rate forecasts are RenCap forecasts
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
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Lebanon 229 LBN 446 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 204: Lebanon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B- EODB Rank: 133 (126) - Weak Corruption Rank: 143 (136) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 15 (18) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.3 9.2 10.1 8.0 0.9 2.8 2.6 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 37.5 44.1 53.5 57.9 60.4 66.1 69.4 72.1 74.6 74.8 77.6 80.8 85.0 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 24.9 29.2 35.5 38.4 40.1 43.9 46.0 47.8 49.5 49.6 51.5 53.6 56.4 NGDPD
Population (mn) 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 LP
GDP per capita ($) 6,008 6,982 8,354 8,850 9,144 9,914 10,399 10,810 11,178 11,105 11,409 11,775 12,263 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 27.7 33.5 38.4 47.8 54.2 59.7 65.9 71.2 75.7 80.2 85.2 88.6 91.7Lending/GDP (%) 74.0 76.0 71.9 82.6 89.7 90.3 95.1 98.8 101.5 107.2 109.8 109.6 107.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.6 18.0 16.4 4.7 11.7 0.5 1.5 -1.7 2.8 -2.1 -2.2 -4.3 -4.8 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.1 10.8 1.2 4.0 5.0 6.6 4.8 1.9 -3.7 -0.8 4.5 4.3 3.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.0 6.4 3.4 4.6 3.1 10.1 1.1 -0.7 -3.4 3.1 5.0 3.5 2.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -10.9 -9.8 -8.1 -7.5 -5.9 -8.5 -9.0 -6.3 -7.6 -9.2 -7.3 -10.6 -11.0 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.7 3.5 -0.2 -0.7 2.5 1.5 0.4 2.5 0.2 0.3 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 169.0 160.9 144.2 136.9 133.9 131.5 138.0 139.2 142.2 150.9 152.8 157.3 160.6 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 4.3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 9 11.6 16.0 16.2 17.9 20.2 21.3 21.4 20.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -8.9 -12.6 -12.8 -14.1 -15.9 -16.8 -17.5 -17.2 -15.1 -15.7 -14.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -35.8 -43.0 -36.1 -36.7 -39.7 -38.3 -37.9 -35.9 -30.6 -31.7 -29.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1.7 -2.9 -3.8 -7.7 -6.1 -11.3 -13.6 -14.9 -9.7 -11.6 -12.9 -13.9 -14.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.0 -9.9 -10.6 -20.2 -15.2 -25.7 -29.5 -31.2 -19.6 -23.3 -25.0 -25.8 -25.3 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 3.4 4.0 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 13.6 13.7 12.3 9.8 7.9 7.2 5.9 6.1 4.7 5.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 6.6 3.8 1.8 -10.4 -7.3 -18.5 -23.6 -25.2 -14.9 -18.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 25 0 13 11 5 -11 -17 -11 1 44 na naImports (% YoY, value) 25 37 2 11 12 6 1 -4 -12 4 3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12.9 20.2 29.1 31.5 33.7 37.2 36.7 39.5 38.8 43.3 43.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 13.3 15.2 21.6 21.1 20.1 21.0 20.6 23.2 25.7 27.8 27.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 21 21 21 21 21 24 26 26 27 28 30 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 84 71 60 53 52 56 57 54 55 57 59 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 772 614 624 535 491 545 658 781 917 943 710 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 19 15 13 11 13 10 8 8 8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 175 130 135 108 125 94 88 120 133 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 37 22 16 13 16 11 10 10 10 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.3 14.2 19.8 12.0 5.1 6.7 7.4 6.2 5.1 6.9 4.0 na na FM4_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 2,067 2,217 2,102 2,000 2,099 1,939 2,003 2,003 1,673 1,669 1,703 1,869 1,890
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1,508 1,507 1,508 1,507 1,507 1,507 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,507 1,508 1,507 1,507
Credit rating history LatestMoody's B3 B3 B2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B- B- B B B B B- B- B- B- B- B- naFitch B- B- B- B B B B B B B- B- B- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Lithuania 230 LTU 946 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 205: Lithuania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/A/A- EODB Rank: 16 (21) - Strong Corruption Rank: 38 (38) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 11.1 2.6 -14.8 1.6 6.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 2.0 2.3 3.8 3.2 3.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 32.1 27.9 12.4 18.0 21.7 19.4 19.5 19.0 20.6 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.8 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 4.2 5.8 13.8 17.8 15.4 13.4 11.8 10.7 9.1 7.9 7.1 6.9 6.8 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 29.0 32.7 26.9 28.0 31.3 33.3 35.0 36.6 37.4 38.7 41.9 43.8 46.4 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 39.8 48.1 37.5 37.2 43.6 42.9 46.4 48.6 41.5 42.8 47.3 54.4 58.2 NGDPD
Population (mn) 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 LP
GDP per capita ($) 12,313 15,047 11,867 12,011 14,387 14,354 15,696 16,585 14,296 14,919 16,730 19,534 21,243 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 17.1 20.3 19.0 18.4 17.5 17.9 17.1 17.0 17.4 18.9 19.2 19.8 20.8Lending/GDP (%) 59.0 61.9 70.6 65.5 56.1 53.7 48.8 46.4 46.6 48.9 45.9 45.1 44.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 16.6 14.3 13.8 16.7 17.2 18.0 20.3 22.2 17.8 16.1 18.4 18.1 18.2 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.8 11.2 4.2 1.2 4.1 3.2 1.2 0.2 -0.7 0.7 3.7 2.2 2.2 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.2 8.5 1.2 3.6 3.5 2.9 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 2.0 3.8 2.2 2.2 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.0 -3.3 -9.3 -6.9 -8.9 -3.1 -2.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -0.5 -2.8 -8.2 -5.2 -7.2 -1.2 -0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 16 15 29 36 37 40 39 41 43 40 37 34 31 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 14 17.2 23.7 16.5 20.7 28.0 29.6 32.6 32.3 25.4 25.0 29.9 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 19 24.5 31.3 18.3 23.4 31.8 32.0 34.8 34.4 28.2 27.3 32.5 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -7.3 -7.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.7 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -2.8 -2.3 -2.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -18.3 -15.6 -4.9 -7.1 -8.6 -5.5 -4.8 -4.2 -6.6 -5.4 -5.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6.2 -6.5 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 1.5 -1.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.5 -13.6 1.4 -1.3 -4.5 -1.4 0.8 3.2 -2.8 -1.1 1.0 -0.1 -0.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.9 -0.2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.1 4.1 0.0 2.1 3.3 1.6 1.0 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -10.4 -9.5 1.4 0.9 -1.2 0.2 1.8 2.8 -0.7 -1.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 38 -31 26 35 6 10 -1 -21 -2 20 na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 28 -41 27 36 1 9 -1 -18 -3 19 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.6 6.3 6.4 6.3 7.9 8.2 7.8 8.5 1.5 2.4 4.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.7 2.4 4.2 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 20 33 34 32 33 34 34 31 31 35 42 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 51 68 90 87 75 80 73 64 74 82 88 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 119 139 204 156 116 116 104 96 121 139 140 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 18 16 12 12 11 11 10 11 16 19 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 20 37 42 33 28 26 24 21 26 38 39 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 45 76 96 60 43 38 35 31 43 65 62 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 103 287 247 196 152 135 144 118 728 678 440 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.7 -0.4 0.3 8.9 4.9 na 4.5 1.1 -61.5 na na na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.24 1.25
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB A- A- A- AA- AA- naFitch A BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ A- A- A- A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, BloombergSource: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Malaysia 231 MYS 548 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 206: Malaysia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/A-/A- EODB Rank: 24 (23) - Strong Corruption Rank: 62 (55) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 63 (67) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 4.8 -1.5 7.5 5.3 5.5 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.3 5.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 23.0 21.1 18.9 23.4 23.2 25.7 25.9 25.0 25.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 687 795 736 821 912 971 1,019 1,106 1,158 1,230 1,352 1,466 1,577 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 200 239 209 255 298 314 323 338 296 297 314 365 403 NGDPD
Population (mn) 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.1 32.5 32.9 LP
GDP per capita ($) 7,379 8,647 7,439 8,920 10,253 10,655 10,700 11,009 9,505 9,374 9,813 11,237 12,241 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 741 834 885 966 1,083 1,213 1,337 1,454 1,571 1,662 1,753 1,841 1,914Lending/GDP (%) 107.8 104.9 120.2 117.5 118.8 124.9 131.3 131.4 135.7 135.1 129.6 125.5 121.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 37.9 37.6 34.0 33.5 34.1 30.9 29.4 29.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.9 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.7 3.2 1.7 2.1 3.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.3 4.5 1.0 2.1 3.0 1.2 3.2 2.7 2.7 1.7 3.5 3.0 2.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.6 -3.5 -6.5 -4.5 -3.6 -3.8 -4.1 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.9 -2.7 -2.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -1.9 -2.1 -5.0 -2.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 39.9 39.9 51.1 51.9 52.6 54.6 56.4 56.2 57.9 56.2 54.2 53.6 52.6 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 161 176 200 157 199 228 228 228 234 200 189 218 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 130 147 157 124 165 188 197 206 209 176 178 195 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 29.2 42.6 33.5 34.0 40.6 31.2 22.3 25.3 24.0 10.6 22.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 14.6 17.9 16.0 13.3 13.6 9.9 6.9 7.5 8.1 3.6 7.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 29.7 39.4 31.4 25.7 32.5 16.2 11.3 14.8 9.0 7.0 9.4 8.7 8.9 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 14.9 16.5 15.0 10.1 10.9 5.2 3.5 4.4 3.0 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 8.6 7.2 1.5 9.1 12.2 9.2 12.1 10.9 11.1 9.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 3.0 0.7 3.6 4.1 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 19.2 19.5 15.7 13.6 15.0 8.1 7.2 7.6 6.8 5.7 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 10 13 -21 26 15 0 0 3 -15 -6 15 na naImports (% YoY, value) 13 7 -21 33 14 5 5 1 -16 1 10 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 101 91 95 105 132 138 133 115 94 93 101 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.2 7.0 9.2 7.6 8.4 8.4 7.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 113 91 99 124 138 197 212 214 195 204 217 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 56 38 47 49 46 63 66 63 66 69 69 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 64 46 63 62 60 86 93 91 98 108 100 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 39 32 26 41 50 67 80 69 51 48 49 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 13 12 16 17 21 25 20 17 16 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 22 16 17 20 22 29 35 29 26 25 22 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 38 35 27 39 38 48 60 60 55 51 48 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 8 6 10 6 6 7 12 13 14 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 2 5 2 2 2 4 4 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 3 6 3 3 3 5 6 7 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 8 6 11 5 5 5 9 11 14 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 3.5 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.1 11.9 9.2 6.8 14.3 9.0 8.1 6.3 2.6 3.0 4.8 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 4.71 4.90 4.91 4.27 4.26 3.97 4.19 4.35 4.34 4.59 4.86 4.98 4.91
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.44 3.33 3.52 3.22 3.06 3.09 3.15 3.27 3.91 4.15 4.30 4.02 3.92
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naFitch A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Mauritius 232 MUS 684 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 207: Mauritius key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/-/- EODB Rank: 25 (49) - Strong Corruption Rank: 54 (50) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.9 5.5 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 26.9 27.3 21.3 23.7 26.0 24.8 25.2 23.0 21.2 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 8.5 7.2 7.3 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.2 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 244 274 282 299 323 344 366 386 404 432 452 485 532 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 7.8 9.6 8.8 9.7 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.6 11.5 12.2 12.4 13.3 14.2 NGDPD
Population (mn) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 LP
GDP per capita ($) 6,286 7,749 7,082 7,772 8,993 9,114 9,480 10,001 9,115 9,613 9,794 10,437 11,114 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 197 249 251 279 311 364 413 402 435 439 505 540 565Lending/GDP (%) 80.6 90.8 89.0 93.3 96.2 105.9 112.9 104.1 107.7 101.7 111.8 111.5 106.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.1 18.3 15.0 14.3 13.2 18.5 19.0 17.0 16.3 16.3 13.5 12.3 11.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.8 9.7 2.5 2.9 6.5 3.9 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.0 3.7 5.1 4.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.6 6.8 1.5 6.1 4.9 3.2 4.1 0.2 1.3 2.3 4.2 5.9 4.7 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.1 -2.8 -3.5 -3.2 -3.2 -1.8 -3.5 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6 -3.3 -3.4 -3.3 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 -0.3 1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 44.5 43.4 50.8 52.0 52.2 51.5 53.9 57.5 60.2 60.1 60.2 59.9 59.1 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 4 3.9 4.6 3.6 4.2 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.4 4.7 4.7 5.9 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -1.8 -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.9 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.3 -2.5 -3.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -23.3 -26.3 -21.5 -23.5 -26.2 -26.8 -24.3 -22.3 -19.9 -20.3 -31.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -10.1 -7.4 -10.3 -13.8 -7.3 -6.3 -5.7 -4.9 -4.4 -6.0 -7.4 -8.7 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.4 4.0 2.8 4.4 3.8 5.1 2.5 3.3 1.8 2.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.1 -6.1 -4.6 -5.9 -10.0 -2.1 -3.9 -2.3 -3.1 -1.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -3 -1 -16 14 11 3 2 13 -7 -9 -5 na naImports (% YoY, value) 6 18 -21 17 21 3 -2 4 -13 -1 28 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.5 4.6 7.2 6.9 6.1 6.4 7.7 8.0 10.1 11.6 11.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 17 19 23 227 211 155 206 155 172 196 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 212 180 214 241 2019 1843 1301 1633 1344 1419 1581 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 805 853 1106 1198 10469 9440 6825 8000 6438 7860 9388 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 9 6 5 12 2 3 3 4 3 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 114 66 61 120 15 25 24 28 30 38 42 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 433 312 317 595 79 127 128 140 143 210 249 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 498 364 249 477 66 100 87 99 87 102 95 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 4 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 31 27 28 28 30 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 8 8 9 8 158 140 149 136 142 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 9 10 7 6 133 111 101 97 86 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 9.3 6.8 5.8 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na 4.8 4.4 6.4 8.2 5.8 8.7 10.2 9.1 9.3 na na over2
Exchange rate (€) annual average 42.9 41.9 44.6 40.8 40.0 38.6 40.8 40.7 38.9 39.3 41.0 45.2 46.9
Exchange rate ($) annual average 31.3 28.5 32.0 30.8 28.7 30.0 30.7 30.6 35.1 35.5 36.3 36.5 37.4
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
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208Figure 208: Credit ratings MEX Figure 209: Consensus forecasts Figure 212: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 2.2 2.4Moody's A3 Feb-14 (Baa1) = CPI (%) 4.5 3.6S&P BBB+ Dec-13 (BBB) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -1.8 -1.8Fitch BBB+ May-13 (BBB) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.3 -2.2Local currencyMoody's A3 Feb-14 (Baa1) = FX vs $, YE 18.5 18.0S&P A- Dec-17 (A) = FX vs EUR, YE 23.3 23.4Fitch BBB+ Jul-16 (A-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 210: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 213: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$MEX 3 5/8 03/15/22 2,215 100.92 3.63 3.6 3.4 47.9 EI9373685MEX 8 09/24/22 611 121.03 8.00 3.8 2.9 -2.8 EC6906712MEX 4 10/02/23 3,285 101.39 4.00 4.8 3.7 77.3 EJ8512331MEX 3.6 01/30/25 2,454 97.31 3.60 5.9 4.1 108.9 EK6138946MEX 4 1/8 01/21/26 2,730 100.10 4.13 6.5 4.1 112.2 JV6456919MEX 11 1/2 05/15/26 321 151.94 11.50 5.7 3.9 93.5 TT3250053MEX 4.15 03/28/27 3,150 98.73 4.15 7.3 4.3 132.1 AM8943053MEX 3 3/4 01/11/28 2,555 94.48 3.75 7.9 4.5 144.0 AQ5996634MEX 8.3 08/15/31 1,158 147.25 8.30 9.0 3.8 70.7 EC4344866MEX 7 1/2 04/08/33 787 130.03 7.50 9.7 4.7 162.8 EC9335752MEX 6.05 01/11/40 3,317 110.04 6.05 12.3 5.3 219.6 EH1544665MEX 4 3/4 03/08/44 4,463 94.19 4.75 14.3 5.2 209.3 EJ0530851MEX 5.55 01/21/45 3,000 105.61 5.55 14.0 5.2 209.7 EK0192634Figure 214: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)MEX 4.6 01/23/46 3,000 91.77 4.60 14.8 5.2 209.9 EK6947437MEX 4.35 01/15/47 2,000 88.71 4.35 15.3 5.1 204.5 QZ1787519MEX 4.6 02/10/48 2,525 91.80 4.60 15.3 5.1 208.5 AP3916842MEX 5 3/4 10/12/10 2,678 98.83 5.75 17.1 5.8 292.1 EI4279358
Figure 211: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 374 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 409
Geographic share Geographic shareUS 81% US 47%Euro area 4% China 18%China 1% EU 9%Japan 1% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesCanada 3% Korea 4% Figure 215: CPI vs policy rateBrazil 1% Canada 3%Colombia 1% Malaysia 2%Korea 1% Taiwan 2%UK 1% Thailand 1%
Product ProductMachinery and transport 62% Machinery and transport 49%Other machinery/transport 42% Other machinery/transport 29%Other manufactures 16% Other manufactures 21%Electronic goods (except parts) 11% Electronic components 16%Electronic components 9% Chemicals 11%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
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Mexico 2026 $ bond Generic Mexico 10y $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
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MXN vs $ MXN vs EURMexico REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
23456789
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Mexico 3M yield index Mexico 2Y yield indexMexico 5Y yield index Mexico 10Y yield index
2.0
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Mexico CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018
Thoughts from a Renaissance man
100
Figure 216: Mexico key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 49 (47) - Strong Corruption Rank: 135 (123) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 56 (56) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.3 1.1 -5.3 5.1 3.7 3.6 1.4 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3 3.0Investment (% GDP) 23.1 24.1 22.9 22.8 23.3 23.9 22.5 21.9 23.3 23.7 23.2 22.9 22.9Unemployment rate year-end (%) 3.6 3.9 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.4Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 11,504 12,354 12,163 13,366 14,666 15,818 16,277 17,471 18,537 20,100 21,751 22,981 24,434Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,053 1,110 900 1,058 1,180 1,201 1,274 1,314 1,170 1,077 1,149 1,213 1,285Population (mn) 110 111 113 114 116 117 118 120 121 122 124 125 126GDP per capita ($) 9,589 9,973 7,975 9,258 10,205 10,261 10,764 10,979 9,666 8,807 9,304 9,723 10,205Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 3,021 3,071 3,334 3,648 4,195 4,560 5,104 5,483 6,271 7,280 7,729 8,348 9,015Lending/GDP (%) 26.3 24.9 27.4 27.3 28.6 28.8 31.4 31.4 33.8 36.2 35.5 36.3 36.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.2 22.6 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.4 20.1 20.1 20.8 21.6 21.5 21.0 20.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.0 5.1 5.3 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.8 6.0 4.4 3.1CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.8 6.5 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 3.4 6.8 3.6 3.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.1 -0.8 -4.9 -3.9 -3.4 -3.7 -3.7 -4.5 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 -2.5 -2.5Primary government balance 1.5 1.7 -2.2 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.5 -1.0 0.6 3.0 1.0 0.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 37.2 42.5 43.7 42.0 42.9 42.7 45.9 48.9 52.9 56.8 54.2 53.5 53.4External indicatorsExports ($bn) 250 272 291 230 298 349 371 380 397 380 374 409 na naImports ($bn) 271 298 326 248 319 371 392 403 423 418 409 445 na naTrade balance ($bn) -26.8 -35.3 -18.4 -20.8 -22.0 -21.8 -23.6 -26.6 -38.0 -35.6 -35.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -3.2 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -3.3 -3.3 -3.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -9.6 -16.8 -7.7 -5.0 -12.4 -18.4 -30.9 -23.7 -29.3 -22.8 -18.8 -23.3 -28.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.9 -1.5 -0.9 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 -1.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2Net FDI ($bn) 32.4 29.1 17.9 26.4 23.6 20.4 45.9 25.7 30.3 26.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.1 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 3.6 2.0 2.6 2.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 8.7 7.2 -21.1 29.9 17.1 6.1 2.5 4.5 -4.1 -1.7 9.5 na naImports (% YoY, value) 10.1 9.4 -24.0 28.7 16.3 5.7 2.8 4.9 -1.2 -2.1 8.6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 87 95 100 120 144 160 175 191 173 174 170 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.5 3.5 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 4.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 193 199 193 248 285 349 399 429 420 416 438 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 18.3 17.9 21.5 23.4 24.1 29.0 31.3 32.7 35.9 38.6 38.1 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 71 68 84 83 82 94 105 108 110 111 107 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 25.8 24.2 25.6 43.1 52.7 76.0 92.5 91.9 70.3 53.8 51.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2.4 2.2 2.8 4.1 4.5 6.3 7.3 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 9.5 8.3 11.1 14.4 15.1 20.5 24.4 23.2 18.5 14.4 12.7 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 29.6 25.4 25.7 35.8 36.6 47.4 52.7 48.1 40.5 31.0 30.4 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 38.0 35.4 31.8 32.7 42.2 70.8 41.6 49.4 54.3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.6 5.9 3.3 3.8 4.6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 14.0 12.1 13.8 11.0 12.1 19.1 11.0 12.4 14.3 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 43.7 37.2 31.9 27.2 29.3 44.2 23.7 25.9 31.3 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.3 5.8 7.3 7.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 10.0 16.8 6.7 12.8 16.1 14.5 9.1 12.4 5.7 8.0 -21.8 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 15.0 16.4 18.8 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.0 17.7 17.6 20.7 21.4 23.5 23.8
Exchange rate ($) annual average 10.9 11.1 13.5 12.6 12.4 13.2 12.8 13.3 15.8 18.7 18.9 18.9 19.0
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Mexico
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217Figure 217: Credit ratings MDA Figure 218: Consensus forecasts Figure 221: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Aug-10 (Caa1) = CPI (%) na naS&P - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Aug-10 (Caa1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 219: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 222: Government bond yields (lcl)
XS1175223699DD113180
ED9751675AM3615623
EJ7708872EK5031746
Figure 223: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 220: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 2 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 4
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 27% Euro area 23%US 2% China 2%China 1% US 0%Japan 1% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesRomania 23% Russia 23% Figure 224: CPI vs policy rateTurkey 9% Romania 18%Russia 8% Ukraine 12%Belarus 6% Turkey 4%UK 3% Poland 3%
Product ProductFood items 44% Other manufactures 29%Other manufactures 34% Machinery and transport 21%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 16% Other machinery/transport 15%Machinery and transport 15% Chemicals 14%Other machinery/transport 14% Food items 14%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Moldova
N/A
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MDL vs $ MDL vs EURMoldova REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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3
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6
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Moldova 12m auction yield
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Figure 225: Moldova key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/-/NR EODB Rank: 44 (44) - Strong Corruption Rank: 122 (123) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 41 (40) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.0 7.8 -6.0 7.1 6.8 -0.7 9.4 4.8 -0.4 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.8Investment (% GDP) 38.1 39.2 23.1 23.5 24.2 23.6 24.7 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.7 20.0 21.2Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.1 4.0 6.4 7.4 6.7 5.6 5.1 3.9 4.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 53 63 60 72 82 88 101 112 123 135 150 162 177Nominal GDP ($bn) 4.4 6.1 5.4 5.8 7.0 7.3 8.0 8.0 6.5 6.8 8.1 9.2 9.9Population (mn) 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5GDP per capita ($) 1,232 1,697 1,526 1,633 1,972 2,046 2,244 2,246 1,828 1,907 2,280 2,596 2,796Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 19.7 22.9 21.8 24.1 27.8 33.6 40.1 38.3 39.2 36.1 35.2 na naLending/GDP (%) 36.9 36.5 36.0 33.5 33.8 38.1 39.9 34.1 32.0 26.8 23.5 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.9 23.1 14.9 16.0 12.5 16.9 20.5 18.7 16.6 18.1 17.0 16.3 16.5PricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.4 12.7 0.0 7.4 7.7 4.6 4.6 5.1 9.6 6.4 6.6 4.7 5.1CPI (year-end, % YoY) 13.1 7.3 0.4 8.1 7.8 4.0 5.2 4.7 13.5 2.4 7.3 4.0 6.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.1 -0.9 -6.4 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.0 -3.2 -3.8Primary government balance 1.3 0.3 -5.0 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 0.3 -2.1 -2.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 28.0 22.0 32.4 30.5 29.0 30.9 29.6 36.0 44.8 42.1 37.7 39.8 42.0External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.0 3 na naImports ($bn) 3 3.7 4.9 3.3 3.9 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.0 4.0 5 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.4 -3.3 -2.0 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.0 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -53.7 -54.7 -36.7 -39.8 -42.4 -41.9 -38.8 -37.3 -31.7 -29.8 -26.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.7 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.2 -16.1 -8.2 -7.5 -11.7 -6.7 -4.2 -3.9 -5.7 -4.0 -4.7 -3.7 -4.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 12.3 11.7 3.8 3.6 4.1 2.7 3.0 2.5 3.5 2.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.9 -4.4 -4.4 -3.9 -7.6 -4.0 -1.2 -1.4 -2.2 -1.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26.5 20.0 -19.1 20.0 43.9 -2.9 10.7 -3.4 -15.8 3.7 27.8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 37.1 32.9 -33.1 17.6 34.7 0.3 5.3 -3.7 -24.3 0.8 16.3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.3 4.1 5.4 5.3 4.5 5.8 6.2 4.9 5.3 6.6 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.1 6.2 7.0 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 75 67 80 81 76 82 86 81 94 92 86.3 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 251 257 337 306 242 279 288 282 315 310 271 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 25.4 22.1 24.4 24.7 23.0 17.1 22.2 17.7 17.6 18.8 19.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 84 84 103 93 73 58 74 61 59 63 62.3 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 84 80 90 83 82 50 63 66 65 58 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7.9 8.4 7.2 6.8 6.6 7.9 8.4 7.4 6.6 6.4 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 26.2 31.9 30.3 25.6 21.0 26.6 28.2 25.7 22.0 21.6 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 591 500 484 395 338 314 299 345 374 291 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 39.8 15.9 3.2 13.6 10.6 20.8 26.5 5.1 -3.0 10.2 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 16,643 15,286 15,496 16,408 16,340 15,578 16,721 18,647 20,942 22,051 20,900 21,844 22,418
Exchange rate ($) annual average 12,140 10,392 11,113 12,366 11,734 12,114 12,587 14,036 18,867 19,923 18,499 17,619 17,878
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Caa1 Caa1 WR B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch B- B- NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Moldova
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Morocco 234 MAR 686 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 226: Morocco key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 69 (68) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (90) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 32 (31) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.5 5.9 4.2 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 2.7 4.6 1.2 4.2 3.1 4.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 33.9 39.1 35.0 34.1 35.8 35.0 34.7 32.5 30.8 33.1 34.0 35.0 35.5 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.8 9.6 9.1 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.9 10.2 9.5 9.2 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 648 717 748 785 820 848 898 925 988 1,016 1,064 1,108 1,174 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 79 93 93 93 101 98 107 110 101 104 110 121 129 NGDPD
Population (mn) 31.0 31.4 31.8 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.8 34.1 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 LP
GDP per capita ($) 2,550 2,947 2,923 2,897 3,112 2,980 3,200 3,260 2,965 3,004 3,151 3,435 3,626 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 462 577 644 715 790 830 858 890 904 958 990 1,030 1,081Lending/GDP (%) 71.4 80.5 86.1 91.2 96.3 97.9 95.6 96.2 91.5 94.2 93.0 92.9 92.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 31.4 31.9 29.7 29.7 28.2 25.5 27.0 26.5 28.8 28.8 30.2 31.4 32.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.0 3.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 1.4 2.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.0 4.2 -1.6 2.2 0.9 2.6 0.4 1.6 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.1 0.7 -1.8 -4.3 -6.6 -7.2 -5.1 -4.8 -4.2 -4.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.8 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 2.8 3.2 0.6 -2.0 -4.4 -4.7 -2.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 52.0 45.4 46.1 49.0 52.5 56.5 61.7 63.3 63.7 64.7 64.4 64.1 62.4 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 12 14.0 18.7 13.4 16.5 20.6 19.5 21.8 23.6 21.1 22.8 24.6 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 23 30.6 40.6 32.4 35.1 43.6 42.9 44.7 45.6 37.0 41.7 44.6 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -16.7 -21.9 -19.0 -18.6 -23.0 -23.4 -23.0 -22.0 -15.9 -18.9 -20.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -21.1 -23.6 -20.5 -20.0 -22.7 -23.8 -21.5 -20.0 -15.7 -18.2 -18.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2.0 -6.6 -5.0 -4.1 -7.7 -9.2 -8.1 -6.5 -2.2 -4.5 -4.2 -4.4 -4.6 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -7.1 -5.4 -4.4 -7.6 -9.3 -7.6 -5.9 -2.1 -4.4 -3.8 -3.6 -3.5 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.1 -4.5 -3.3 -2.7 -5.0 -6.6 -4.5 -2.7 1.0 -2.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 34 -29 23 25 -5 12 8 -10 8 8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 35 33 -20 8 24 -2 4 2 -19 13 7 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 24.1 22.1 22.8 23.0 19.3 16.2 18.2 19.7 22.3 24.3 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.4 6.5 8.4 7.8 5.3 4.5 4.9 5.2 7.2 7.0 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 22 25 25 27 30 34 40 44 44 47 51 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 27 27 27 29 29 35 37 40 43 46 46 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 155 131 189 164 144 174 183 186 207 208 206 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 6 6 2 3 4 4 5 8 7 9 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 6 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 9 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 46 32 17 17 19 21 25 32 32 39 37 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 26 27 10 12 20 26 29 39 31 37 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 29 22 25 20 16 18 23 20 17 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 17 19 15 14 17 22 28 24 16 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 17.5 13.3 7.0 4.2 6.4 4.5 3.1 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.6 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 11.2 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.4 11.4
Exchange rate ($) annual average 8.2 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.1 8.6 8.4 8.4 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.2 9.1
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
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Mozambique 235 MOZ 688 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 227: Mozambique key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa3/SD/RD EODB Rank: 138 (137) - Weak Corruption Rank: 153 (142) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.4 6.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.5 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 13.8 14.2 14.6 18.3 25.7 47.4 54.5 55.4 45.3 42.7 44.0 54.7 86.3 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 242 279 300 345 382 433 482 532 592 689 802 875 949 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 9.5 11.6 11.2 10.5 13.1 15.2 16.0 16.9 14.8 11.3 12.7 14.3 15.0 NGDPD
Population (mn) 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.3 31.2 LP
GDP per capita ($) 423 503 475 430 525 590 605 620 529 392 429 472 482 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 28.1 44.0 66.0 83.9 88.9 106.2 136.0 170.2 207.7 237.6 0.0 na 0.0Lending/GDP (%) 11.6 15.8 22.0 24.3 23.3 24.5 28.2 32.0 35.1 34.5 0.0 na 0.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 8.3 5.1 4.4 8.1 4.4 14.9 11.5 17.2 5.0 3.4 27.9 37.8 41.7 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.2 10.3 3.3 12.7 10.4 2.1 4.2 2.3 2.4 19.2 15.3 6.7 5.7 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 10.3 6.2 4.2 16.6 5.5 2.2 3.0 1.1 11.1 21.1 7.2 6.5 5.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.5 -2.1 -4.9 -3.8 -4.8 -3.9 -2.7 -10.7 -7.2 -6.2 -5.5 -7.5 -10.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -2.0 -1.7 -4.4 -3.1 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 -9.6 -5.9 -3.3 -1.8 -3.2 -5.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 36.0 36.3 41.9 43.3 38.0 40.1 53.1 62.4 88.1 118.8 102.2 110.1 116.6 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.8 3.3 3.4 5.6 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 3 3.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 6.5 6.4 10.6 9.1 8.2 5.5 5.8 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -0.7 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4 -2.9 -2.9 -6.4 -4.3 -4.9 -2.1 -0.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7.3 -11.8 -14.5 -13.3 -21.8 -19.0 -40.0 -25.7 -33.2 -18.7 -1.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.7 -3.3 -6.8 -6.9 -6.4 -6.0 -4.4 -2.0 -2.4 -6.7 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -8.3 -9.9 -10.9 -16.1 -25.4 -44.7 -42.9 -38.2 -40.3 -39.2 -16.1 -16.9 -44.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 3.6 5.6 6.2 4.9 3.7 3.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.2 5.1 8.0 9.7 27.1 37.1 38.6 29.1 25.1 27.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.1 -4.8 -2.9 -6.3 1.8 -7.6 -4.4 -9.1 -15.3 -11.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 1 10 -19 5 62 -4 19 15 -31 3 66 na naImports (% YoY, value) 6 29 -6 -4 79 -2 66 -14 -10 -33 6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 3.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.6 4.7 6.7 7.1 4.6 5.2 3.6 4.0 3.5 4.4 6.5 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 5 6 6 9 10 12 12 13 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 34 29 36 46 43 41 55 58 82 106 100 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 133 127 188 216 156 178 209 204 368 354 226 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 3 3 5 3 3 5 5 7 6 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 10 11 16 23 11 15 18 17 31 20 1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 16 19 17 24 17 18 23 27 42 34 1 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 2 1 2 4 2 2 4 4 12 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 3 2 2 4 3 3 5 7 17 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na 8.3 7.5 8.3 23.3 20.5 18.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 24.2 20.3 32.6 24.6 7.8 29.4 16.3 22.2 26.1 10.1 na na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 35.1 35.6 37.2 43.8 40.5 36.7 40.0 41.9 44.4 67.7 71.5 75.7 79.2
Exchange rate ($) annual average 25.6 24.2 26.7 33.0 29.1 28.5 30.1 31.5 40.0 61.1 63.3 61.1 63.2
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B1 B2 Caa1 Caa1 Caa3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B- CC SD SD naFitch B B B B B B B+ B+ B RD RD RD naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Namibia 236 NAM 728 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 228: Namibia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/-/BB+ EODB Rank: 106 (108) - Middle Corruption Rank: 53 (53) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.6 2.7 0.3 6.0 5.1 5.1 5.6 6.4 6.0 1.1 -1.2 1.2 3.3 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 24.4 32.3 24.7 22.9 18.9 25.6 21.2 34.8 32.9 25.6 22.7 23.5 23.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 62 70 75 83 90 107 123 139 148 161 169 181 197 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 8.7 8.5 8.9 11.3 12.4 13.0 12.7 12.8 11.6 10.9 12.7 13.3 14.1 NGDPD
Population (mn) 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 LP
GDP per capita ($) 4,379 4,199 4,340 5,411 5,871 6,039 5,794 5,718 5,076 4,709 5,413 5,627 5,905 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 32.7 35.7 39.1 43.3 46.2 54.1 61.5 73.1 84.9 92.0 96.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 53.2 50.9 52.0 52.4 51.3 50.6 50.1 52.7 57.5 57.1 57.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.0 32.2 23.2 19.4 15.9 19.9 17.2 24.1 20.3 11.5 21.3 19.9 18.6 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.5 9.1 9.5 4.9 5.0 6.7 5.6 5.3 3.4 6.7 6.1 5.8 5.8 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.5 11.2 7.9 3.1 7.4 6.4 4.9 4.6 3.7 7.3 5.2 5.8 5.8 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 6.2 4.4 -0.1 -4.6 -7.0 -2.4 -3.3 -6.0 -8.2 -9.1 -6.1 -7.7 -9.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 7.9 5.0 0.9 -3.5 -5.8 -1.0 -1.9 -4.6 -6.6 -6.7 -3.3 -4.4 -5.7 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 19.4 19.1 15.9 16.3 27.5 24.6 25.0 25.2 40.3 44.8 46.1 52.4 58.5 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 3 4.1 4.7 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.1 6.1 5.7 4.5 4.5 5.9 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 3 4.0 4.7 6.2 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 8.5 7.7 6.7 6.3 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -1.5 -2.8 -3.2 -2.2 -0.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 0.3 0.6 -5.0 -3.6 -6.6 -15.5 -11.8 -22.0 -27.8 -20.2 -3.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 8.6 -0.1 -1.5 -3.5 -3.0 -5.7 -4.0 -10.8 -12.6 -14.1 -1.4 -3.6 -5.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.1 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 8.4 8.5 5.7 7.0 9.0 8.7 6.3 3.4 9.3 2.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 17.0 8.4 4.2 3.6 6.0 3.0 2.3 -7.4 -3.3 -11.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 19 17 22 -3 1 -9 19 -6 -22 1 30 na naImports (% YoY, value) 44 16 32 -4 8 10 6 13 -10 -13 -6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.7 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 23 26 15 22 23 17 19 33 36 24 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 41 41 41 30 48 57 36 42 85 88 51 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 6 6 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 8 11 10 6 6 7 2 4 6 6 7 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 34 42 27 19 18 20 9 20 15 16 17 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 16.1 13.3 59.6 8.7 11.6 6.0 13.7 6.9 10.2 4.9 9.5 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 9.7 12.1 11.8 9.7 10.1 10.6 12.8 14.4 14.2 16.3 15.0 16.9 17.6
Exchange rate ($) annual average 7.1 8.3 8.4 7.3 7.3 8.2 9.7 10.8 12.8 14.7 13.3 13.6 14.0
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital
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229Figure 229: Credit ratings NGA Figure 230: Consensus forecasts Figure 233: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 2.5 3.1Moody's B2 Nov-17 (Ba3) = CPI (%) 13.3 10.8S&P B Sep-16 (B+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 1.1 1.0Fitch B+ Jun-16 (BB-) – Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.8 -2.9Local currencyMoody's B2 Nov-17 (Ba3) = FX vs $, YE 380 452S&P B Sep-16 (B+) = FX vs EUR, YE 479 588Fitch B+ Jul-16 (BB-) – Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 231: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 234: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 500 105.43 6.75 2.5 4.6 179.6 EI5488180NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 500 104.67 6.38 4.3 5.3 240.3 EJ7435922NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 1,500 101.33 6.50 6.9 6.3 330.4 AQ1229329NGERIA 7.143 02/23/30 1,250 102.95 7.14 7.9 6.8 374.1 AR3678794NGERIA 7 7/8 02/16/32 1,500 108.54 7.88 8.5 6.9 385.7 AM4670155NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 1,250 103.70 7.70 10.1 7.3 427.1 AR3678802NGERIA 7 5/8 11/28/47 1,500 101.80 7.63 11.5 7.5 441.9 AQ1229378LclNIGB 16.2884 03/17/27 608,390 117.59 16.29 4.9 12.9 1289.4 AM6771506NIGB 16.2499 04/18/37 402,040 123.69 16.25 6.8 12.9 2133.3 AN1325538Corporate$ACCESS 10 ½ 10/19/21 300 112.07 10.50 2.9 6.6 369.1 QZ8982246Figure 235: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)DIAMBK 8 ¾ 05/21/19 200 99.19 8.75 1.0 9.6 700.2 EK2772193ZENITH 6 ¼ 04/22/19 672 97.23 6.00 3.8 6.7 381.1 EJ4199208GRTBNL 6 11/08/18 277 101.22 6.00 0.5 3.6 117.6 EJ9177639
Figure 232: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 35 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 35
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 28% China 26%Japan 5% EU 18%US 3% US 6%China 2% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 17% India 4% Figure 236: CPI vs policy rateBrazil 8% UK 3%South Africa 6% UAE 3%Ivory Coast 4% Hong Kong 2%Ghana 4% Brazil 1%
Product ProductFuels 89% Machinery and transport 38%Food items 4% Other machinery/transport 30%Other manufactures 2% Other manufactures 20%Agricultural raw materials 1% Food items 15%Machinery and transport 1% Chemicals 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Nigeria
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Figure 237: Nigeria key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 145 (169) - Weak Corruption Rank: 148 (136) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 13 (11) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 5.3 4.2 5.5 6.2 2.8 -1.6 0.8 2.9 3.0Private consumption (%YoY) 2.6 0.3 29.3Government consumption (%YoY) 4.6 -2.0 1.4Investment (%YoY) -29.8 1.9 10.5Oil production (mbd YE) 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9Nominal GDP (NGNtn) 31.4 37.8 39.6 55.5 63.7 72.6 81.0 90.1 95.2 102.6 114.9 140.3 154.6Nominal GDP (€bn) 182 216 189 277 293 359 382 415 431 362 313 327 348Nominal GDP ($bn) 249 317 264 367 408 462 508 546 481 399 349 392 429Population (mn) 144 148 152 156 160 165 169 174 179 184 189 194 199GDP per capita ($) 1,734 2,148 1,739 2,354 2,547 2,803 3,001 3,136 2,693 2,171 1,852 2,022 2,155Gross national saving (% of GDP) 30.6 25.3 26.8 21.2 19.2 19.3 18.8 16.0 12.3 13.2 14.9 14.4 14.6Bank credit to private sector (lcl tn) 5.1 8.1 10.2 9.7 14.2 15.2 16.2 18.1 18.7 23.0 23.3 25.7 28.8Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 16.1 21.3 25.7 17.5 22.3 20.9 20.0 20.1 19.7 22.4 20.3 18.3 18.6Loan to deposit ratio 70.9 94.7 100.8 86.7 79.3 73.3 69.1 72.1 71.0 72.0 70.0 71.0 71.5PricesCPI (average %YoY) 5.4 11.5 12.6 13.7 10.8 12.2 8.5 8.4 8.2 15.6 16.6 12.1 11.3CPI (end-year %YoY) 6.6 15.1 13.9 11.8 10.9 12.0 8.0 8.1 9.6 18.6 15.4 10.8 11.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Federal government balance 54 -0.3 0.6 -1.9 -2.5 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -0.9 -2.5 -2.8 -4.3 -3.4 -3.0Total public debt 22 8.5 7.5 9.6 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.6 11.5 14.3 20.0 20.5 21.0External balanceExports ($bn) 54.8 86.3 56.8 78.5 97.2 94.3 95.1 82.6 45.9 34.7 45.8 47.0 50.0Imports ($bn) 32.7 40.1 31.1 46.8 62.2 53.4 51.4 61.6 52.3 35.2 32.7 32.3 41.2Trade balance ($bn) 22.1 46.2 25.7 31.8 35.0 40.9 43.8 21.0 -6.4 -0.5 13.1 14.7 8.8Trade balance (% of GDP) 8.9 14.6 9.7 8.6 13.5 8.9 8.6 3.8 -1.3 -0.1 3.8 3.8 2.0Current account balance ($bn) 31.1 32.6 14.0 14.6 12.7 18.9 20.1 1.3 -15.4 2.7 10.4 12.8 8.0Current account balance (% of GDP) 12.5 10.3 5.3 4.0 3.1 4.1 4.0 0.2 -3.2 0.7 3.0 3.3 1.9Net FDI ($bn) 6.0 5.5 7.1 5.2 8.1 8.1 4.4 3.1 1.6 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.5Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.4 1.7 2.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 14.9 12.0 8.0 5.4 5.1 5.8 4.8 0.8 -2.9 1.5 3.6 3.9 2.4Exports (%YoY, value) -6.8 57.5 -34.2 38.3 23.7 -2.9 0.8 -13.2 -44.4 -24.4 32.0 2.7 6.3Imports (%YoY, value) 43.6 22.7 -22.4 50.3 32.9 -14.1 -3.8 19.9 -15.0 -32.7 -7.3 -1.0 27.4FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 51.3 53.0 44.8 32.3 32.4 44.2 43.6 34.5 29.1 25.8 38.7 52.0 55.0Import cover (months of imports) 18.9 15.9 17.3 8.3 6.3 9.9 10.2 6.7 6.7 8.8 14.2 19.3 16.0Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 3.9 4.1 4.5 5.6 5.9 6.5 8.9 11.5 47.2 44.5 53.5 58.0 60.0Gross external debt (% of GDP) 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.1 9.8 11.2 15.3 14.8 14.0Gross external debt (% of exports) 7.0 4.8 8.0 7.2 6.0 6.9 9.3 13.9 102.9 128.2 116.8 123.3 120.0Total debt service ($bn) 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.8Total debt service (% of GDP) 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7Total debt service (% of exports) 1.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 5.0 5.9 5.2 6.1 7.1Interest & exchange ratesMonetary policy rate (MPR), %YE 9.5 9.8 6.0 6.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 58.1 58.0 17.1 7.1 15.8 12.0 14.7 16.0 18.2 16.0 1.7 4.0 8.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 97.1 59.4 26.0 -4.4 46.2 6.8 6.9 11.9 3.3 23.0 1.4 10.0 12.05Y yield (%YE) 9.5 10.5 9.4 12.0 11.2 11.8 13.5 13.8 13.1 13.3 16.0 15.5 15.0Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) year-end 172 195 214 203 206 206 221 222 219 332 392 434 450Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) annual average 172 175 209 200 217 202 212 217 221 283 367 430 445Exchange rate, NGN/$) year-end 118 140 150 152 159 156 160 183 199 315 332 356 360Exchange rate (NGN/$) annual average 126 119 150 151 156 157 159 165 198 257 329 358 360Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B B naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ na
Source: IMF, World Bank, national statistics agency, central bank, Renaissance Capital estimates
Nigeria
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Oman 238 OMN 449 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 238: Oman key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BB/BBB- EODB Rank: 71 (66) - Middle Corruption Rank: 68 (64) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.5 8.2 6.1 4.8 -1.1 9.3 4.4 2.8 4.7 1.8 -0.3 2.1 4.2 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 34.1 36.5 28.2 25.4 24.2 27.2 29.1 28.8 34.3 35.3 34.0 33.5 33.5 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 16.2 23.4 18.6 22.5 26.1 29.5 30.4 31.2 26.5 25.7 28.6 31.8 32.9 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 42.1 60.9 48.4 58.6 67.9 76.7 78.9 81.1 68.9 66.8 74.3 82.6 85.6 NGDPD
Population (mn) 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 LP
GDP per capita ($) 15,437 21,866 16,785 20,327 22,700 23,305 21,963 21,814 18,240 16,667 17,973 19,391 19,488 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 6.4 9.2 9.7 11.0 12.8 14.8 15.8 17.6 20.6 22.4 23.8 25.2 26.7Lending/GDP (%) 39.7 39.2 52.3 48.8 49.0 50.1 52.2 56.5 77.6 87.3 83.2 79.3 81.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 39.9 44.7 27.2 33.7 37.4 37.4 35.7 33.6 17.2 16.9 22.5 27.3 27.5 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.9 12.6 3.5 3.3 4.0 2.9 1.2 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.3 11.8 0.9 4.2 3.3 2.9 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 12.0 16.8 -0.3 5.5 9.4 4.6 4.7 -1.1 -15.9 -21.3 -11.4 -5.7 -4.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 10.5 15.6 -1.3 4.6 8.9 3.3 2.6 -2.1 -16.1 -21.8 -11.7 -5.3 -4.5 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 6.9 4.7 6.7 5.7 5.2 4.9 5.0 4.9 15.5 33.3 44.2 46.8 48.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 22 24.6 37.7 27.6 36.5 47.0 52.1 56.4 53.2 34.7 26.8 29.9 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 11 16.0 22.9 17.8 19.8 23.6 28.1 34.3 29.3 29.0 23.1 31.6 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 8.7 14.7 9.8 16.8 23.4 24.0 22.1 23.9 5.7 3.7 -1.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 20.6 24.2 20.2 28.6 34.5 31.3 28.0 29.5 8.3 5.5 -2.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2.5 5.0 -0.5 4.9 8.8 7.8 5.2 4.2 -11.0 -12.3 -8.6 -5.1 -5.1 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.8 8.2 -1.0 8.3 13.0 10.2 6.6 5.2 -15.9 -18.4 -11.5 -6.2 -6.0 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 3.3 3.0 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.9 4.8 3.1 2.1 2.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 13.8 13.1 2.0 10.4 15.6 11.3 7.7 6.1 -14.7 -18.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 53 -27 32 29 11 8 -6 -35 -23 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 47 44 -22 11 19 19 22 -15 -1 -20 37 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 9.5 11.6 12.2 13.0 14.4 14.4 16.0 16.3 17.5 20.3 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.2 6.1 8.2 7.9 7.3 6.1 5.6 6.7 7.3 10.5 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 19 16 18 18 20 19 19 23 40 49 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 41 31 32 31 27 26 25 24 33 60 67 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 71 49 56 50 39 38 34 36 65 149 165 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 7 11 19 23 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 35 41 30 35 32 31 31 23 23 25 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.1 2.4 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 37.0 23.3 4.7 11.3 12.2 10.7 8.5 16.3 10.0 1.8 4.2 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 0.53 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.54 0.49 0.51 0.51 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.48 0.48
Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
Credit rating history LatestMoody's WR WR WR WR WR WR WR WR WR Baa1 Baa1 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's A A A A A A A A BBB+ BBB- BB BB naFitch - - - - - - - - - - BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance CapitalSource: IMF, World Bank, national statistics agency, central bank, Renaissance Capital estimates
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Pakistan 239 PAK 564 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 239: Pakistan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 147 (144) - Weak Corruption Rank: 117 (116) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 13 (13) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.5 5.0 0.4 2.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.6 4.7 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 18.8 19.2 17.5 15.8 14.1 15.1 15.0 14.6 15.7 15.6 15.8 17.0 16.5 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 9,240 10,638 13,200 14,867 18,276 20,047 22,386 25,169 27,443 29,103 31,862 35,381 38,956 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 152 171 168 177 214 224 231 244 271 279 304 322 325 NGDPD
Population (mn) 158 165 168 172 175 179 183 186 190 194 197 201 205 LP
GDP per capita ($) 963 1,038 998 1,032 1,218 1,254 1,267 1,312 1,425 1,441 1,541 1,604 1,588 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 2,962 3,493 3,864 3,988 3,825 4,148 4,451 4,946 5,343 6,130 7,076 8,278 9,355Lending/GDP (%) 32.1 32.8 29.3 26.8 20.9 20.7 19.9 19.6 19.5 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 14.3 11.1 12.0 13.6 14.2 13.0 13.9 13.4 14.7 13.8 11.7 12.2 12.2 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 7.8 12.0 19.6 10.1 13.7 11.0 7.4 8.6 4.5 2.9 4.1 5.0 5.2 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.0 21.5 11.0 11.8 13.3 11.3 5.9 8.2 3.2 3.2 3.9 5.4 5.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.1 -7.5 -5.0 -6.0 -6.7 -8.6 -8.4 -4.9 -5.3 -4.4 -5.7 -5.3 -5.7 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -1.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.7 -2.9 -4.2 -3.9 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 52.4 57.2 58.5 60.6 58.9 63.2 63.9 63.5 63.3 67.6 67.2 67.2 67.4 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 17 17.8 20.2 17.5 21.5 25.4 24.8 25.2 24.7 22.1 20.5 20.1 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 30 32.6 42.3 31.6 37.5 43.6 43.8 43.8 47.5 44.0 47.0 57.8 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -14.8 -22.1 -14.1 -16.1 -18.1 -19.0 -18.6 -22.8 -21.9 -26.5 -37.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.7 -12.9 -8.4 -9.1 -8.5 -8.5 -8.0 -9.3 -8.1 -9.5 -12.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6.9 -13.9 -9.3 -3.9 0.2 -4.7 -2.5 -3.1 -2.7 -4.9 -12.4 -15.5 -14.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -8.1 -5.5 -2.2 0.1 -2.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7 -4.1 -4.8 -4.4 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 5.6 5.4 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.9 2.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.7 3.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -0.8 -4.9 -4.1 -1.1 0.6 -1.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 5 14 -13 23 18 -3 2 -2 -10 -7 -2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 9 30 -25 19 16 1 0 9 -7 7 23 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 14.0 7.2 11.3 14.3 14.5 10.2 5.2 11.8 17.8 19.7 15.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.2 2.0 4.3 4.6 4.0 2.8 1.4 3.0 4.9 5.0 3.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 38 38 68 65 66 65 61 66 68 74 77 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 22 40 36 31 29 26 27 25 26 26 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 215 186 387 300 261 265 246 262 282 335 383 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 0 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 3 0 21 19 13 15 18 22 29 35 2 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 4 0 32 29 22 37 88 46 36 36 2 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 3 3 4 3 5 7 5 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 15 15 20 20 12 20 28 19 17 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 19 42 31 30 20 48 134 40 21 na na na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) na 15.0 12.5 14.0 12.0 9.5 10.0 9.5 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.7 5.7 14.7 15.0 15.9 20.9 15.9 12.5 12.2 12.5 12.2 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 79 92 108 117 117 120 125 140 122 116 114.2 124.4 138.7
Exchange rate ($) annual average 61 63 79 84 86 89 97 103 101 104 104.8 105.5 114.6
Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B3 B3 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B+ CCC+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B- B B B naFitch - - - - - - - - B B B B naNote: 2017-19E exchange rate forecasts from Renaissance Capital
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Peru 240 PER 293 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 240: Peru key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 58 (54) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 39 (36) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.5 9.1 1.0 8.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 2.4 3.3 4.1 2.5 3.7 4.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 22.3 27.5 20.7 24.9 24.9 24.7 26.5 24.9 24.1 22.6 21.4 21.6 22.2 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.7 6.8 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 320 356 364 418 465 498 535 576 613 660 702 749 795 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 102 122 121 148 169 189 198 203 192 195 215 232 247 NGDPD
Population (mn) 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.5 LP
GDP per capita ($) 3,621 4,243 4,159 5,009 5,669 6,280 6,491 6,591 6,175 6,208 6,762 7,199 7,586 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 65 88 89 102 124 140 168 190 221 230 237 256 285Lending/GDP (%) 20.5 24.9 24.5 24.4 26.8 28.1 31.4 33.0 36.0 34.8 33.8 34.2 35.8Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.8 23.1 20.2 22.5 23.2 21.9 21.7 20.5 19.3 19.9 20.1 20.9 21.1 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.8 5.8 2.9 1.5 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 2.8 1.6 2.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.9 6.7 0.2 2.1 4.7 2.6 2.9 3.2 4.4 3.2 1.4 2.3 2.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 3.3 2.7 -1.4 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -2.3 -3.1 -3.3 -2.7 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 5.2 4.1 -0.3 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.7 0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -2.0 -2.2 -1.6 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 31.9 28.0 28.4 25.5 23.3 21.6 20.8 20.7 24.0 24.4 25.5 27.0 28.0 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 23 27.6 31.2 26.5 34.9 45.9 45.4 41.9 38.4 33.2 37.0 44.7 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 16 20.6 29.9 23.2 31.9 40.3 45.1 46.3 44.9 40.2 37.7 41.7 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 7.0 1.3 3.4 3.0 5.6 0.3 -4.4 -6.5 -7.0 -0.7 3.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 6.9 1.1 2.8 2.0 3.3 0.2 -2.2 -3.2 -3.6 -0.3 1.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 1.5 -5.3 -0.6 -3.6 -3.0 -5.4 -9.4 -8.9 -9.2 -5.3 -2.7 -1.6 -2.8 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.5 -4.3 -0.5 -2.4 -1.8 -2.9 -4.7 -4.4 -4.8 -2.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 5.5 6.9 6.4 8.5 7.7 11.9 9.3 7.9 6.9 6.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.7 4.5 6.3 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 6.9 1.3 4.8 3.3 2.8 3.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 19 13 -15 32 31 -1 -8 -8 -14 12 21 na naImports (% YoY, value) 32 45 -23 38 26 12 3 -3 -10 -6 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 26.9 30.3 32.0 42.6 47.2 62.3 64.4 61.2 60.4 60.5 62.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 15.7 12.1 16.6 16.0 14.1 16.6 16.7 16.4 18.0 19.3 17.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 33 35 37 42 45 54 57 61 66 70 68 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 29 30 28 27 29 29 30 34 36 31 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 120 112 138 119 98 119 135 160 199 188 151 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 6 6 5 6 6 9 6 7 7 8 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6 5 4 4 4 5 3 3 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 23 21 18 18 14 20 15 18 21 21 19 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 23 21 15 15 13 14 10 11 12 13 14 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 9 5 4 7 4 6 7 5 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 9 4 4 5 2 3 3 2 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 33 17 16 19 9 13 16 13 14 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 34 17 13 16 9 9 10 8 8 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 1.3 3.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.3 3.3 2.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 23.7 25.5 5.2 22.6 11.9 14.4 17.6 5.3 13.0 1.7 7.9 na na over3
Exchange rate (€) annual average 4.29 4.30 4.20 3.75 3.84 3.39 3.59 3.77 3.54 3.74 3.68 4.01 4.04
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.13 2.92 3.01 2.83 2.75 2.64 2.70 2.84 3.19 3.38 3.26 3.24 3.22
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Philippines 241 PHL 566 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 241: Philippines key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB/BBB EODB Rank: 113 (99) - Middle Corruption Rank: 111 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 36 (40) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.6 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.7 6.7 7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 17.3 19.3 16.6 20.5 20.5 18.2 20.0 20.6 21.2 24.3 25.0 26.2 27.0 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.5 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 6,893 7,721 8,026 9,003 9,708 10,561 11,538 12,634 13,322 14,481 15,798 17,553 19,459 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 149 174 168 200 224 250 272 285 293 305 313 332 356 NGDPD
Population (mn) 89 89 91 93 94 97 98 100 102 103 105 107 110 LP
GDP per capita ($) 1,684 1,941 1,851 2,155 2,380 2,592 2,768 2,849 2,883 2,953 2,976 3,095 3,247 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 2,539 2,766 2,928 3,304 3,885 4,423 5,038 5,921 6,599 7,586 8,796 10,115 11,632Lending/GDP (%) 36.8 35.8 36.5 36.7 40.0 41.9 43.7 46.9 49.5 52.4 55.7 57.6 59.8Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.7 19.4 21.6 24.1 23.0 21.0 24.2 24.3 23.7 24.0 24.6 25.7 26.4 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.9 8.2 4.2 3.8 4.7 3.2 2.9 4.2 1.4 1.8 3.2 4.2 3.8 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.7 7.8 4.4 3.6 4.2 3.0 4.1 2.7 1.5 2.6 3.3 4.1 3.7 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.3 0.0 -2.7 -2.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 52.4 52.1 52.1 49.7 47.5 47.9 45.7 42.1 41.5 39.0 37.8 37.3 36.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 47 50.5 49.1 39.2 51.4 48.0 52.0 54.0 61.8 58.6 56.1 62.8 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 52 55.5 60.4 45.9 60.2 66.2 67.9 68.0 71.0 73.4 91.4 92.5 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -5.0 -11.3 -6.7 -8.8 -18.1 -15.9 -14.0 -9.2 -14.7 -35.3 -29.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -6.5 -3.9 -4.4 -8.1 -6.4 -5.2 -3.2 -5.0 -11.6 -9.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 8.1 0.1 8.4 7.2 5.6 6.9 11.4 10.8 7.3 -1.0 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.4 0.1 5.0 3.6 2.5 2.8 4.2 3.8 2.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 2.9 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.2 7.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.0 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 2.4 1.8 2.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 7.4 1.0 6.2 4.2 3.3 3.8 5.1 6.2 4.3 2.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 7 -3 -20 31 -7 8 4 14 -5 -4 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 9 -24 31 10 3 0 4 3 25 1 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 30.2 33.2 38.8 55.4 67.3 73.5 75.7 72.1 74.0 73.4 73.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.5 6.6 10.1 11.0 12.2 13.0 13.4 12.2 12.1 9.6 9.5 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 95 86 106 60 60 60 59 78 77 75 73 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 64 50 63 30 27 24 22 27 26 25 23 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 189 176 271 117 126 116 108 126 132 133 116 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 16 10 15 6 7 8 11 16 15 15 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 11 6 9 3 3 3 4 6 5 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 31 21 38 12 15 16 21 26 26 26 23 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 52 31 38 11 10 12 15 23 20 20 19 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 8 10 9 11 10 6 6 6 8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 6 6 5 6 4 2 2 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 16 21 23 22 20 11 11 10 14 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 27 31 23 21 14 8 8 8 11 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 4.1 33.1 8.4 8.9 4.3 8.5 30.7 12.4 9.2 13.0 11.8 na na FM4_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 63.3 65.4 66.4 59.9 60.3 54.3 56.4 59.0 50.5 52.6 56.9 65.5 68.6
Exchange rate ($) annual average 46.1 44.5 47.6 45.1 43.3 42.2 42.4 44.4 45.5 47.5 50.4 52.8 54.7
Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB naFitch BB BB BB BB BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Poland 242 POL 964 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 242: Poland key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A2/BBB+/A- EODB Rank: 27 (24) - Strong Corruption Rank: 36 (29) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 90 (87) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.0 4.3 2.8 3.6 5.0 1.6 1.4 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.6 4.1 3.5 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 25.2 24.7 20.6 21.3 22.4 21.0 19.0 20.4 20.5 19.6 20.0 21.1 21.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.6 7.1 8.2 9.6 9.6 10.1 10.3 9.0 7.5 6.2 4.9 4.1 4.0 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,188 1,286 1,372 1,445 1,567 1,629 1,657 1,720 1,799 1,859 1,982 2,085 2,208 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 429 534 440 479 529 501 524 545 477 471 525 614 650 NGDPD
Population (mn) 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 LP
GDP per capita ($) 11,265 14,005 11,541 12,602 13,887 13,158 13,777 14,337 12,560 12,411 13,823 16,180 17,130 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 506 706 730 790 911 936 969 1,054 1,115 1,155 1,192 1,252 1,339Lending/GDP (%) 42.6 54.9 53.2 54.6 58.2 57.4 58.5 61.3 62.0 62.1 60.1 60.0 60.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.8 17.9 16.5 15.9 17.3 17.3 17.7 18.3 19.9 19.3 20.0 20.2 20.4 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.5 4.2 3.5 2.6 4.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 -0.9 -0.6 2.0 2.5 2.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.1 4.6 2.4 0.7 -1.0 -0.5 0.8 2.1 2.9 2.2 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.9 -3.6 -7.3 -7.3 -4.8 -3.7 -4.1 -3.6 -2.6 -2.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.3 -1.5 -4.8 -4.9 -2.3 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 44.2 46.3 49.4 53.1 54.1 53.7 55.7 50.2 51.1 54.1 51.4 50.8 49.8 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 111 140 171 137 160 189 185 205 220 199 203 231 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 127 166 209 150 178 211 199 208 224 196 197 231 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -25.7 -38.3 -12.9 -18.3 -22.0 -13.8 -2.6 -3.5 2.7 5.2 0.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -7.2 -2.9 -3.8 -4.2 -2.7 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 1.1 0.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -27.4 -35.8 -17.9 -25.9 -27.4 -18.6 -6.7 -11.4 -2.7 -1.4 0.2 -5.4 -7.9 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.4 -6.7 -4.1 -5.4 -5.2 -3.7 -1.3 -2.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 19.8 12.3 10.0 12.8 15.9 12.4 3.6 12.5 7.5 11.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 2.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.8 -4.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.2 -1.2 -0.6 0.2 1.0 2.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 22 -20 17 18 -2 11 7 -10 2 14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 26 -29 19 18 -5 4 8 -12 0 17 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 63.0 59.3 75.9 88.8 92.6 103.4 102.2 96.5 91.4 110.5 109.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.5 3.4 6.1 6.0 5.3 6.2 5.9 5.2 5.6 6.7 5.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 233 245 280 317 324 369 384 357 331 338 379 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 54 46 64 66 61 74 73 65 69 72 72 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 166 144 205 199 172 199 187 162 166 167 164 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 45 51 54 48 45 42 46 38 37 52 51 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 10 12 10 8 8 9 7 8 11 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 32 30 40 30 24 23 23 17 18 26 22 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 71 86 71 55 48 41 45 39 40 47 46 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.4 18.6 8.1 8.8 12.5 4.5 6.2 8.2 9.1 9.5 4.6 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 3.79 3.54 4.35 4.00 4.13 4.18 4.20 4.19 4.18 4.37 4.27 4.21 4.26
Exchange rate ($) annual average 2.77 2.41 3.12 3.02 2.96 3.25 3.16 3.16 3.77 3.94 3.78 3.39 3.40
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Qatar 243 QAT 453 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 243: Qatar key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AA-/AA- EODB Rank: 83 (83) - Middle Corruption Rank: 29 (31) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 18.0 17.7 12.0 18.1 13.4 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.6 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.7 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 290 420 356 455 611 680 723 751 599 555 605 669 706 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 80 115 98 125 168 187 199 206 165 152 166 184 194 NGDPD
Population (mn) 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 LP
GDP per capita ($) 69,167 74,189 59,683 72,953 96,828 101,933 99,180 93,054 67,537 58,247 60,804 66,202 68,977 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 147 219 224 270 351 440 491 536 598 619 661 694 728Lending/GDP (%) 50.8 52.1 62.9 59.4 57.5 64.7 67.9 71.4 99.8 111.5 109.1 103.7 103.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 60.4 64.2 49.5 50.4 60.1 60.3 58.3 55.7 46.6 42.6 48.6 53.3 55.0 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 13.7 15.1 -4.9 -2.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 3.4 1.8 2.7 0.4 3.9 3.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 10.5 9.9 14.9 6.7 7.5 11.2 22.7 15.3 5.3 -4.7 -1.6 2.8 7.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 11.2 10.4 16.0 7.9 9.0 12.7 24.0 16.4 6.8 -3.2 -0.3 4.4 9.2 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 8.9 11.1 32.4 29.1 33.5 32.1 30.9 24.9 34.9 46.5 54.0 55.4 52.0 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 34 44.4 67.3 44.5 74.6 114.3 132.0 132.5 126.3 76.6 56.8 63.9 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 16 23.4 27.8 24.0 22.4 21.7 24.4 25.7 29.4 31.7 32.2 30.8 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 21.0 39.5 20.5 52.1 92.6 107.6 106.8 96.9 45.0 24.6 33.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 26.4 34.2 21.0 41.6 55.2 57.6 53.7 47.0 27.3 16.1 19.9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 11.5 26.6 6.4 24.0 52.1 62.0 60.5 49.4 13.8 -8.3 2.1 4.7 3.5 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 14.4 23.1 6.5 19.1 31.1 33.2 30.4 24.0 8.4 -5.5 1.3 2.5 1.8 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 4.7 3.8 8.1 4.7 0.9 0.4 -0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.9 3.3 8.3 3.7 0.6 0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 20.3 26.3 14.8 22.9 31.6 33.4 30.0 24.5 9.0 -5.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 31 51 -34 68 53 15 0 -5 -39 -26 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 43 19 -14 -6 -3 12 5 14 8 2 -4 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 9.4 9.6 18.4 30.6 16.2 32.5 41.6 42.7 36.5 30.8 13.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.8 4.2 9.2 16.4 9.0 16.0 19.4 17.4 13.8 11.5 5.4 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 66 82 92 105 117 114 105 108 117 133 118 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 83 72 94 84 70 61 53 52 71 87 71 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 149 123 208 140 102 86 79 86 153 234 184 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 16 21 21 21 29 24 24 31 34 40 43 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 20 18 21 17 17 13 12 15 21 26 26 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 35 31 47 29 26 18 18 25 44 71 68 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 166 218 114 70 180 73 57 73 93 130 314 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 5.6 5.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 35.6 21.9 13.0 22.9 27.5 22.2 30.4 3.7 -4.1 -2.9 25.3 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 4.99 5.35 5.08 4.83 5.07 4.68 4.84 4.84 4.04 4.03 4.11 4.51 4.56
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA- AA- naFitch AA AA AA- AA- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Romania 244 ROU 968 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 244: Romania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 45 (36) - Strong Corruption Rank: 59 (57) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 82 (75) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.9 8.3 -5.9 -2.8 2.0 1.2 3.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 7.0 5.1 3.5 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 31.1 33.2 26.6 27.1 28.0 26.8 25.6 24.7 25.2 24.0 24.9 23.9 23.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 6.3 5.5 6.3 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.9 5.0 4.6 4.6 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 429 538 526 530 562 595 637 668 713 762 856 923 984 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 176 214 173 167 184 172 192 199 178 188 211 246 265 NGDPD
Population (mn) 21.1 20.6 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.4 LP
GDP per capita ($) 8,326 10,352 8,445 8,212 9,127 8,542 9,568 9,998 8,951 9,504 10,757 12,575 13,665 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 152 203 207 218 233 237 230 224 231 233 245 265 294Lending/GDP (%) 35.4 37.8 39.3 41.1 41.4 39.8 36.1 33.5 32.4 30.6 28.7 28.7 29.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.7 21.7 22.0 22.0 23.0 22.1 24.5 24.0 23.9 21.9 21.5 20.1 19.9 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.8 7.8 5.6 6.1 5.8 3.3 4.0 1.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.3 4.7 3.1 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.6 6.3 4.8 8.0 3.1 5.0 1.6 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 3.3 3.5 3.2 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.0 -4.6 -6.9 -6.3 -4.2 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9 -1.5 -2.4 -2.8 -3.6 -3.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -2.5 -4.0 -5.9 -5.1 -2.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -1.1 -1.7 -2.4 -2.2 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 12.3 13.0 22.6 30.8 34.1 37.7 38.9 40.5 39.3 39.1 36.9 37.9 39.0 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 32 40.6 49.7 40.7 49.5 63.0 57.9 65.9 69.7 60.6 63.5 70.8 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 51 70.6 84.3 54.5 62.0 76.5 70.2 73.5 77.7 69.8 74.6 85.5 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -30.0 -34.6 -13.8 -12.5 -13.5 -12.4 -7.6 -8.0 -9.2 -11.0 -14.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -17.0 -16.2 -8.0 -7.5 -7.3 -7.2 -4.0 -4.0 -5.2 -5.9 -7.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -23.7 -24.7 -8.1 -8.6 -9.2 -8.2 -2.0 -1.3 -2.2 -3.9 -7.3 -9.2 -9.8 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -13.5 -11.6 -4.7 -5.1 -5.0 -4.8 -1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -2.1 -3.5 -3.7 -3.7 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 9.7 13.5 4.7 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.4 4.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.5 6.3 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -7.9 -5.3 -2.0 -3.3 -3.7 -2.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 25 23 -18 22 27 -8 14 6 -13 5 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 37 20 -35 14 23 -8 5 6 -10 7 15 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 37.2 36.9 40.8 43.4 42.9 41.2 44.8 39.2 35.2 36.1 40.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.3 5.2 9.0 8.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 65 100 119 125 129 133 135 115 98 98 110 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37 47 69 75 70 77 71 58 55 52 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 160 202 292 253 205 230 205 165 162 154 156 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 57 26 16 17 19 16 16 12 12 12 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 12 9 10 11 10 8 6 7 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 141 51 39 35 31 28 24 18 21 19 20 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 153 69 39 40 45 40 35 31 35 34 36 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 12 18 16 18 19 21 29 25 24 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 8 9 11 10 12 15 12 13 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 29 36 40 37 30 36 44 35 39 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 31 49 40 43 44 51 64 63 67 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 8.0 6.3 6.0 5.3 4.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na 17.5 9.0 6.8 6.5 2.8 8.8 8.4 9.3 9.8 11.6 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 3.34 3.71 4.25 4.22 4.25 4.46 4.42 4.45 4.45 4.49 4.58 4.66 4.65
Exchange rate ($) annual average 2.44 2.52 3.05 3.18 3.05 3.47 3.33 3.35 4.01 4.06 4.05 3.76 3.71
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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245Figure 245: Credit ratings RUS Figure 246: Consensus forecasts Figure 249: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.8 1.8Moody's Ba1 Apr-16 (Ba1) + CPI (%) 3.0 4.0S&P BBB- Feb-18 (BB+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 3.0 2.5Fitch BBB- Jan-15 (BBB) + Fiscal bal (%GDP) 0.1 -0.1Local currencyMoody's Ba1 Apr-16 (Ba1) + FX vs $, YE 58.7 60.4S&P BBB Feb-18 (BBB) = FX vs EUR, YE 73.9 78.5Fitch BBB- Jan-15 (BBB) + Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 247: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 250: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$RUSSIA 4 7/8 09/16/23 3,000 103.51 4.88 4.7 4.1 120.7 EJ8270005RUSSIA 4 1/4 06/23/27 2,405 97.31 4.25 7.4 4.6 162.3 AO0619137RUSSIA 5 1/4 06/23/47 7,000 96.42 5.25 14.3 5.5 246.0 AO0617065LocalRFLB 8.15 02/03/27 350,000 106.59 8.15 6.0 7.3 -18.0 EJ037061RFLB 7.05 01/19/28 350,000 99.36 7.05 6.6 7.3 -43.4 EJ525789RFLB 8 1/2 09/17/31 250,000 110.40 8.50 7.9 7.4 4.7 QJ407522Corporate$GAZPRU 4.95 07/19/22 1,000 101.14 4.95 3.7 4.6 174.5 EJ2812257GAZPRU 4.95 03/23/27 750 98.42 4.95 7.1 5.2 218.6 AM7840284SBERRU 6 1/8 02/07/22 1,500 104.58 6.13 3.3 4.8 189.4 EJ0082440CHMFRU 5.9 10/17/22 634 103.74 5.90 3.9 5.0 204.5 EJ3930470Figure 251: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)RURAIL 4 3/8 03/01/24 500 98.35 4.38 5.0 4.7 175.6 AM5297909Local QZ7612422RURAIL 9.2 10/07/23 15,000 107.58 9.20 4.3 7.5 6.3 QZ7612422
Figure 248: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 282 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 192
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 39% EU 29%China 8% China 19%Japan 4% US 6%US 3% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesTurkey 6% Belarus 5% Figure 252: CPI vs policy rateBelarus 4% Ukraine 3%Korea 4% Kazakhstan 3%Kazakhstan 3% Korea 2%Poland 3% Poland 2%
Product ProductFuels 53% Machinery and transport 41%Other manufactures 13% Other machinery/transport 31%Machinery and transport 8% Other manufactures 28%Iron and steel 7% Food items 13%Chemicals 7% Chemicals 13%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Russia
1
3
5
7
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Russia 2027 $ bond Russia generic 10y $ yieldUS generic 10y YtM
60
70
80
90
100
110
1202030405060708090
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
RUB vs $ RUB vs EURRussia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Russia 3M yield index Russia 2Y yield indexRussia 5Y yield index Russia 10Y yield index
2468
1012141618
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Russia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 253: Russia key economic indicators - Renaissance Capital forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 35 (40) - Strong Corruption Rank: 135 (131) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 50 (56) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.5 5.2 -7.8 4.5 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.5 2.0 1.9Private consumption (% YoY) 14.3 10.6 -5.1 5.1 6.8 7.9 5.2 2.0 -9.4 -2.8 3.4 3.8 3.6Government consumption (% YoY) 2.7 3.4 -0.6 -1.5 1.4 2.6 0.9 -2.1 -3.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2Investment (% YoY) 21.0 10.6 -14.4 5.9 9.1 5.0 1.3 -1.8 -11.2 0.8 4.3 3.3 3.4Industrial production (% YoY) 6.8 0.8 -9.2 8.3 4.8 2.5 0.3 1.7 -3.4 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.8Unemployment rate (% YoY) 6.1 6.3 8.4 7.5 6.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8Nominal GDP (RUBtn) 33.2 41.3 38.8 46.3 56.0 66.9 71.1 79.2 83.4 86.1 92.0 99.6 103.7Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,299 1,658 1,224 1,523 1,904 2,159 2,227 2,052 1,358 1,287 1,579 1,685 1,668Population (mn) 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 144 147 147 147 148 148GDP per capita ($) 9,095 11,617 8,567 10,660 13,312 15,066 15,544 14,278 9,251 8,748 10,710 11,408 11,275Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 29.3 28.8 19.4 24.4 29.1 28.0 25.1 25.0 27.2 27.3 26.6 27.5 27.9Bank credit to private sector (lcl tn) 12.5 16.9 16.5 18.6 24.0 27.7 32.5 40.9 44.0 45.1 49.0 51.9 55.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 37.6 40.8 42.4 40.2 42.8 41.4 45.7 51.6 52.7 52.3 53.2 52.1 53.5Deposits (RUBtn) 11.9 14.4 16.8 20.7 25.6 29.6 34.3 43.0 51.1 54.1 59.8 64.6 69.8Loan-to-deposit ratio 105.2 117.3 97.9 89.9 93.7 93.7 94.6 95.0 86.0 83.3 81.8 80.3 79.6PricesCPI (average % YoY) 9.0 14.1 11.7 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.8 15.6 7.1 3.7 3.2 3.8CPI (end-year % YoY) 11.9 13.3 8.8 8.8 6.1 6.6 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 3.8 4.0Nominal wages (monthly), RUB 13,593 17,290 18,639 20,950 23,532 26,803 29,729 32,611 34,274 36,845 39,144 42,824 45,864Wage rates (% YoY, nominal) 27.8 27.2 7.8 12.4 12.2 13.9 12.8 9.5 5.1 7.5 7.3 9.4 7.1Fiscal balance Consolidated government balance 5.4 4.1 -5.9 -3.5 1.6 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 -3.4 -1.4 0.8 0.7Total public debt (% of GDP) 7.1 5.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 11.4 14.4 14.6 16.1 15.7 16.7 17.6External balanceExports ($bn) 354 472 303 401 522 528 523 494 342 282 354 392 369Imports ($bn) 223 292 192 249 324 336 341 308 193 192 238 256 258Trade balance ($bn) 131 180 111 152 198 192 182 186 149 90 116 136 111Trade balance (% of GDP) 10.1 10.9 9.1 10.0 10.4 8.9 8.2 9.0 10.9 7.0 7.3 8.1 6.6Current account balance ($bn) 77.8 103.5 48.6 70.3 98.8 71.4 34.1 58.4 69.0 25.5 40.2 65.1 45.4Current account balance (% of GDP) 6.0 6.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 3.3 1.5 2.8 5.1 2.0 2.5 3.9 2.7Gross FDI ($bn) 55.9 74.8 36.6 43.1 55.1 50.6 79.3 18.5 5.9 30.9 23.2 15.0 15.0Gross FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 4.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.6 0.9 0.4 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.9C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 10.3 10.8 7.0 7.4 8.1 5.7 5.1 3.7 5.5 4.4 4.0 4.8 3.6Exports (% YoY, value) 16 33 -36 32 30 1 -1 -6 -31 -17 25 11 -6Imports (% YoY, value) 36 31 -34 30 30 4 2 -10 -37 -1 24 8 1Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 479 427 439 479 499 538 430 385 368 378 433 492 522Import cover (months of imports) 25.8 17.5 27.4 23.1 18.5 19.2 15.1 15.0 22.9 23.6 21.8 23.1 24.3Debt indicatorsGross external debt year-end ($bn) 464 481 467 483 545 636 729 594 515 519 529 511 499Gross external debt (% of GDP) 36 29 38 32 29 29 33 29 38 40 34 34 34Gross external debt (% of exports) 131 102 154 121 104 111 139 120 151 184 150 130 135Total debt service ($bn) 107 148 87 100 109 128 143 130 102 92 86 81 76Total debt service (% of GDP) 8 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 7 5 5 5Total debt service (% of exports) 30 31 29 25 21 24 27 26 30 33 24 21 21Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 43.5 0.8 17.7 31.1 22.3 11.9 14.6 2.2 11.4 9.2 9.5 10.5 10.0Refinancing rate year-end (%) 10.0 13.0 8.8 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 10.0 7.8 6.8 6.8Exchange rate (RUB/$) year-end 24.5 29.4 30.2 30.5 32.1 30.5 32.7 56.2 72.9 61.5 57.6 61.5 63.0Exchange rate (RUB/$) annual average 25.6 24.9 31.7 30.4 29.4 31.0 31.9 38.6 61.4 67.0 58.3 59.1 62.2Exchange rate (RUB/€) year-end 35.9 42.7 43.3 40.8 41.7 40.3 44.9 68.4 79.6 64.7 68.9 77.5 81.9Exchange rate (RUB/€) annual average 35.0 36.5 44.1 40.3 40.9 39.9 42.4 50.9 68.1 74.1 65.9 73.3 80.9Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- na
Source: Rosstat, CBR, MinFin, Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Renaissance Capital estimates
Russia
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Rwanda 246 RWA 714 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 254: Rwanda key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 41 (56) - Strong Corruption Rank: 48 (50) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.6 11.2 6.2 6.3 7.5 8.9 4.7 7.0 6.9 5.5 5.0 6.0 6.5Private consumption (%YoY) -10.5 24.0 8.0 7.5 9.3 7.3 3.8 4.8 14.5 1.0 3.0 3.5 4.0Government consumption (%YoY) 2.3 2.5 4.0 4.8 13.5 19.8 -0.3 15.5 -12.8 21.0 15.0 15.0 16.0Investment (%YoY) 27.8 31.5 5.3 7.5 22.8 21.8 9.0 9.0 8.5 16.0 6.0 10.0 12.0Industry value added (%YoY) 9.5 15.0 1.8 8.3 17.8 8.3 9.8 5.8 6.5 4.0 3.0 4.0 5.0Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,092 2,658 3,057 3,367 3,897 4,494 4,929 5,466 5,956 6,618 7,548 8,388 9,544Nominal GDP (€bn) 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 8.5Nominal GDP ($bn) 3.7 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.1 7.9 8.6 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.5Population (mn) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4GDP per capita ($) 399 489 533 559 622 676 665 719 758 731 762 796 850Gross national saving (% of GDP) 7.2 10.1 6.6 6.4 4.9 7.3 10.5 8.6 8.7 7.6 10.8 10.5 9.9Bank credit to private sector (lcl bn) 254 335 349 391 502 670 758 906 1,124 1,405 1,531 1,746 2,008Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 12.1 12.6 11.4 11.6 12.9 14.9 15.4 16.6 18.9 21.2 20.3 20.8 21.0Loan to deposit ratio 71.4 88.5 91.0 86.0 87.0 94.0 88.0 87.0 88.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0PricesUrban CPI (average %YoY) 3.8 3.1 10.3 6.0 2.4 2.5 7.1 8.4 0.5 5.0Urban CPI (end-year %YoY) 4.5 7.4 9.2 5.1 -0.4 6.8 11.0 -0.2 4.5 5.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General govt. budget balance (incl. grants) -1.8 0.9 0.3 0.4 -1.2 -5.0 -4.0 -4.9 -4.6 -3.8 -5.3 -4.3 -4.3Total public debt 27.0 21.3 22.9 20.0 20.1 21.7 28.7 29.3 36.4 44.5 47.6 49.2 49.8External balanceExports ($bn) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3Imports ($bn) 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3Trade balance ($bn) -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0Trade balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -13.1 -14.5 -13.6 -17.4 -19.4 -16.1 -16.1 -15.7 -15.4 -10.3 -10.5 -9.1C/A balance incl offical transfers ($bn) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9C/A balance incl official transfers (% of GDP) -2.2 -4.9 -7.3 -5.5 -7.2 -11.4 -7.8 -10.5 -12.8 -14.8 -8.7 -9.9 -8.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 1.7 2.2 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.0 -2.7 -5.1 -4.7 -5.6 -9.2 -4.2 -7.1 -9.0 -10.7 -4.8 -6.0 -4.9Exports (%YoY value) 20 51 -12 37 44 27 19 3 -8 12 34 13 18Imports (%YoY value) 30 52 13 9 44 26 -6 8 1 6 6 7 8Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold US$bn) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3Import cover (months of imports) 10.7 8.1 7.6 7.7 7.2 4.4 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.9 6.8 6.3 6.7Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5Gross external debt (% of GDP) 15 14 14 14 16 21 27 28 33 42 45 48 46Gross external debt (% of exports) 324 253 319 244 222 257 270 306 423 469 409 408 362Total debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1Total debt service (% of exports) 8 5 6 6 4 6 6 8 9 8 11 13 8Interest & exchange ratesKey repo rate YE 12.5 11.3 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 22.4 31.6 5.0 11.2 28.4 30.4 12.6 19.7 24.0 25.0 9.0 14.0 15.0Exchange rate (Rwf/EUR) year-end 794 780 819 796 783 833 932 835 809 864 1,008 1,078 1,158Exchange rate (Rwf/EUR) annual average 750 804 792 774 837 790 894 902 793 864 935 1,043 1,118Exchange rate (Rwf/$) year-end 544 559 571 594 604 631 676 690 745 822 854 884 926Exchange rate (Rwf/$) annual average 547 547 568 583 601 614 673 686 719 786 838 869 905Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - B B B B B+ B B B naFitch B- B- B- B B B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ na
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, National Bank of Rwanda, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
Source: Rosstat, CBR, MinFin, Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Renaissance Capital estimates
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255Figure 255: Credit ratings SAU Figure 256: Consensus forecasts Figure 259: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.5 2.3Moody's A1 May-16 (-) = CPI (%) 3.4 2.6S&P A-u Feb-16 (A+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 2.6 2.1Fitch A+ Mar-17 (AA-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -7.9 -7.1Local currencyMoody's A1 May-16 (Aa3) = FX vs $, YE 3.8 3.8S&P A-u Feb-16 (A+) = FX vs EUR, YE 4.7 4.9Fitch A+ Mar-17 (AA-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 257: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 260: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$KSA 2 3/8 10/26/21 5,500 96.02 2.38 3.3 3.6 74.7 QZ9368189KSA 2 7/8 03/04/23 3,000 95.59 2.88 4.4 3.9 97.8 AP2858755KSA 4 04/17/25 4,500 98.63 4.00 6.0 4.2 128.1 AS1608783KSA 3 1/4 10/26/26 5,500 92.35 3.25 7.3 4.3 136.1 QZ9368197KSA 3 5/8 03/04/28 5,000 93.64 3.63 8.1 4.4 143.4 AP2859159KSA 4 1/2 04/17/30 3,000 98.68 4.50 9.1 4.6 162.6 AS1609179KSA 4 1/2 10/26/46 6,500 90.60 4.50 15.3 5.1 209.4 QZ9368221KSA 4 5/8 10/04/47 4,500 91.54 4.63 15.3 5.2 215.5 AP2859340KSA 5 04/17/49 3,500 95.92 5.00 15.3 5.3 223.9 AS1609492
Figure 261: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 258: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 220 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 128
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 13% EU 21%Japan 11% China 14%US 10% US 12%Euro area 9% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 9% Korea 6% Figure 262: CPI vs policy rateKorea 9% India 4%Singapore 3% UK 4%Taiwan 3% Switzerland 3%Pakistan 3% Oman 3%
Product ProductFuels 71% Machinery and transport 46%Chemicals 21% Other machinery/transport 35%Other manufactures 2% Other manufactures 23%Machinery and transport 2% Food items 14%Other machinery/transport 2% Chemicals 10%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Saudi Arabia
100
110
120
130
140
1503.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
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l-10
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l-11
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l-12
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l-14
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l-15
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l-16
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17Ju
l-17
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18
SAR vs $ SAR vs EURS Arabia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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11Ju
l-11
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18
Saudi 3M yield index
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
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13
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3
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14
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4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
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16
Jul-1
6
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17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Saudi CPI, % YoY Reverse repo rate, %
Repo rate, %
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct-1
6
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Saudi Arabia 2028 $ bond Saudi Arabia 2026 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
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Figure 263: Saudi Arabia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A-u/A+ EODB Rank: 92 (94) - Middle Corruption Rank: 57 (62) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.8 6.3 -2.1 4.8 10.3 5.4 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.7 1.9Investment (% GDP) 26.5 27.3 31.7 31.0 27.0 26.5 26.5 28.8 35.1 30.9 28.2 28.1 28.6Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,559 1,949 1,609 1,976 2,517 2,760 2,800 2,836 2,454 2,419 2,564 2,805 2,847Nominal GDP ($bn) 416 520 429 527 671 736 747 756 654 645 684 748 759Population (mn) 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.0 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.7GDP per capita ($) 16,667 20,157 16,095 19,113 23,655 25,208 24,893 24,580 21,095 20,318 21,120 22,650 22,538Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 578 735 734 776 858 1,003 1,126 1,256 1,372 1,406 1,394 1,408 1,436Lending/GDP (%) 37.1 37.7 45.6 39.3 34.1 36.3 40.2 44.3 55.9 58.1 54.3 50.2 50.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 48.9 52.8 36.6 43.4 50.6 48.9 44.6 38.5 26.5 27.2 30.9 33.5 32.2PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.1 6.1 4.2 3.8 3.8 2.9 3.5 2.2 1.3 2.0 -0.9 3.7 2.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.3 9.1 4.3 5.4 2.7 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 -0.9 3.7 2.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 11.8 29.8 -5.4 4.4 11.6 11.9 5.6 -3.5 -15.8 -17.2 -9.0 -7.3 -5.6Primary government balance 10.8 28.6 -5.5 4.7 11.6 11.7 5.2 -4.2 -17.9 -20.2 -10.5 -8.2 -6.2Total public debt (% of GDP) 17.1 12.1 14.0 8.4 5.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 5.8 13.1 17.3 20.0 23.8External indicatorsExports ($bn) 284 288 423 230 306 459 515 478 447 254 203 220 na naImports ($bn) 68 89 113 93 104 129 153 164 170 174 140 128 na naTrade balance ($bn) 199.6 309.5 136.6 201.4 330.2 362.9 313.9 277.4 79.3 62.9 92.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 48.0 59.5 31.8 38.2 49.2 49.3 42.0 36.7 12.1 9.7 13.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 93.4 132.3 21.0 66.8 158.6 164.8 135.4 73.8 -56.7 -23.9 18.2 40.4 27.0Current account balance (% of GDP) 22.5 25.5 4.9 12.7 23.6 22.4 18.1 9.8 -8.7 -3.7 2.7 5.4 3.6Net FDI ($bn) 24.3 39.5 36.5 29.2 16.3 12.2 8.9 8.0 8.1 7.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.9 7.6 8.5 5.5 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 28.3 33.0 13.4 18.2 26.1 24.0 19.3 10.8 -7.4 -2.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 1.4 46.7 -45.6 33.0 50.2 12.2 -7.2 -6.5 -43.3 -20.1 8.7 na naImports (% YoY, value) 29.8 27.8 -17.6 12.1 23.5 18.2 7.8 3.3 2.6 -19.8 -8.6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 305 442 410 445 541 656 725 732 616 535 0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 41.4 46.9 52.8 51.1 50.3 51.7 52.9 51.7 42.4 45.9 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 101.4 106.6 113.8 120.2 117.4 125.7 133.1 132.7 123.4 166.1 163.4 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 24.4 20.5 26.5 22.8 17.5 17.1 17.8 17.6 18.9 25.8 23.9 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 35.2 25.2 49.5 39.3 25.6 24.4 27.8 29.7 48.7 81.9 74.1 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 37.8 30.1 41.7 46.1 39.5 58.1 49.1 63.1 51.8 54.3 54.1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 9.1 5.8 9.7 8.7 5.9 7.9 6.6 8.3 7.9 8.4 7.9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 13.1 7.1 18.1 15.1 8.6 11.3 10.3 14.1 20.4 26.8 24.6 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 12.4 6.8 10.2 10.4 7.3 8.9 6.8 8.6 8.4 10.1 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.6 17.6 10.7 5.0 13.3 13.9 10.9 11.9 2.6 0.7 0.2 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 5.14 5.52 5.23 4.98 5.22 4.82 4.98 4.98 4.16 4.15 4.24 4.65 4.70
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A-u A-u A-u naFitch A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA- A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia
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264Figure 264: Credit ratings SEN Figure 265: Consensus forecasts Figure 268: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Ba3 Apr-17 (B1) = CPI (%) na naS&P B+ Dec-00 (-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - - (-) na Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Ba3 Apr-17 (B1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B+ Dec-00 (-) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - (-) na Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 266: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 269: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$SENEGL 8 3/4 05/13/21 300 111.81 8.75 2.6 4.5 172.1 EI6686394SENEGL 6 1/4 07/30/24 500 103.08 6.25 5.1 5.7 273.0 EK4044732SENEGL 6 1/4 05/23/33 1,100 97.07 6.25 8.9 6.6 355.8 AN6331648SENEGL 6 3/4 03/13/48 1,000 95.13 6.75 12.2 7.1 412.7 AR493943€
SENEGL 4 3/4 03/13/28 1,000 99.41 4.75 7.0 4.8 403.9 AR493857
Figure 270: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 267: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 3 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 5
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 14% EU 38%China 5% China 10%US 1% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesMali 13% Nigeria 9% Figure 271: CPI vs policy rateSwitzerland 10% India 6%India 6% Turkey 3%Ivory Coast 5% Russia 2%UAE 4% Ivory Coast 2%
Product ProductFood items 35% Fuels 29%Fuels 20% Food items 21%Other manufactures 13% Other manufactures 19%Gemstones and non-monetary gold11% Machinery and transport 19%Chemicals 10% Other machinery/transport 14%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Senegal
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14Ap
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18Ap
r-18
Senegal 2024 $ bond Senegal 2033 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
80
85
90
95
100
105
110400
500
600
700
800
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
XOF vs $ XOF vs EURSenegal REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
na
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Senegal CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 272: Senegal key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/B+/- EODB Rank: 140 (147) - Weak Corruption Rank: 66 (64) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 35 (34) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.7 2.4 4.3 1.9 4.5 3.6 4.1 6.5 6.7 7.2 7.0 7.0Investment (% GDP) 29.3 31.2 22.1 22.1 25.6 29.3 27.5 24.5 25.2 26.9 26.3 27.6 27.6Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 5,408 5,990 6,031 6,401 6,783 7,263 7,346 7,568 8,082 8,722 9,564 10,435 11,363Nominal GDP ($bn) 11 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 15 16 20 22Population (mn) 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8GDP per capita ($) 952 1,101 1,020 1,002 1,082 1,039 1,053 1,054 913 955 1,038 1,209 1,294Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,205 1,560 1,614 1,714 2,018 2,263 2,534 2,764 2,961 3,244 3,781 4,121 4,492Lending/GDP (%) 22.3 26.0 26.8 26.8 29.8 31.2 34.5 36.5 36.6 37.2 39.5 39.5 39.5Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.4 17.0 15.4 17.7 17.6 18.4 17.0 15.5 18.2 21.3 16.9 19.7 20.1PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.9 6.3 -2.2 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.7 -1.1 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.5CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.2 5.5 -4.5 4.3 2.7 1.1 -0.1 -0.8 0.4 2.1 0.3 1.5 1.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.5 -4.4 -4.6 -4.9 -6.1 -5.2 -5.5 -5.0 -4.8 -4.2 -4.5 -3.5 -3.0Primary government balance -2.8 -3.8 -3.9 -4.0 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.1 -2.1 -1.4 -0.7Total public debt (% of GDP) 23.5 23.9 34.2 35.5 40.7 42.8 46.9 54.5 56.9 60.4 61.2 60.6 58.8External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.5 na naImports ($bn) 3 4.3 5.6 4.3 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.0 5.2 5.5 6.0 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.9 -3.5 -2.5 -2.4 -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.8 -3.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -25.7 -26.2 -19.8 -18.7 -20.5 -24.3 -24.4 -22.7 -21.3 -19.0 -21.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1.3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6Current account balance (% of GDP) -11.8 -14.2 -6.7 -4.4 -8.0 -10.9 -10.5 -9.0 -7.0 -5.5 -9.4 -7.9 -7.5Net FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -9.2 -11.2 -4.2 -2.3 -5.7 -8.9 -8.4 -6.4 -4.5 -2.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 5 44 -16 12 22 -1 4 5 -10 15 -7 na naImports (% YoY, value) 30 29 -24 2 22 9 5 0 -13 5 10 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 22 30 30 35 45 45 53 62 63 60 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 182 144 218 197 211 275 274 318 364 344 396 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 6 5 5 5 7 10 9 8 7 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 62 37 37 32 29 42 61 55 48 39 1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 9 11 16 15 14 16 14 16 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.9 9.6 13.0 10.4 6.5 6.7 8.6 12.6 19.1 14.1 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656
Exchange rate ($) annual average 479 446 471 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 529 523
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Senegal
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Serbia 248 SRB 942 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 273: Serbia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB/BB EODB Rank: 43 (47) - Strong Corruption Rank: 77 (72) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 49 (47) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.9 5.4 -3.1 0.6 1.4 -1.0 2.6 -1.8 0.8 2.8 1.8 3.5 3.5 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 29.1 30.3 19.4 18.5 20.1 21.0 17.7 17.5 18.9 19.1 18.7 18.6 17.9 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 18.8 14.4 16.9 20.0 23.6 24.6 23.0 19.9 18.2 15.9 14.6 14.3 14.0 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,355 2,745 2,880 3,067 3,408 3,584 3,876 3,908 4,043 4,262 4,469 4,755 5,057 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 40.5 49.2 42.6 39.0 46.5 40.7 45.5 44.2 37.2 38.3 41.5 48.3 51.3 NGDPD
Population (mn) 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 LP
GDP per capita ($) 5,486 6,689 5,820 5,354 6,424 5,656 6,352 6,199 5,237 5,426 5,899 6,895 7,356 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 834 1,125 1,306 1,657 1,788 1,958 1,871 1,926 1,980 2,029 2,067 2,150 2,258Lending/GDP (%) 35.4 41.0 45.3 54.0 52.5 54.6 48.3 49.3 49.0 47.6 46.3 45.2 44.6Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 11.9 9.3 13.2 12.1 11.5 9.5 11.5 11.5 14.1 16.0 14.0 14.1 13.8 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.0 12.4 8.1 6.1 11.1 7.3 7.7 2.1 1.4 1.1 3.1 2.7 3.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.0 8.6 6.6 10.2 7.0 12.2 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.9 -1.9 -3.6 -3.7 -4.1 -6.8 -5.3 -6.2 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -0.1 -1.3 -2.9 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 1.9 4.0 2.3 2.4 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 33.4 32.4 36.0 43.7 46.6 57.9 61.1 71.9 76.0 73.1 61.5 58.5 55.1 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 8.8 11.0 8.3 9.8 11.8 11.3 14.7 14.8 13.4 14.9 16.6 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 13 18.6 22.9 16.1 16.7 19.9 18.9 20.6 20.5 18.2 19.3 22.4 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -9.7 -11.9 -7.7 -6.9 -8.1 -7.5 -5.8 -5.6 -4.8 -4.5 -5.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -24.0 -24.2 -18.1 -17.8 -17.4 -18.5 -12.8 -12.8 -13.0 -11.6 -14.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -7.0 -10.3 -2.7 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -2.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.2 -1.9 -2.2 -2.1 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -17.2 -21.1 -6.2 -6.4 -8.6 -11.5 -6.1 -6.0 -4.7 -3.1 -4.6 -4.5 -4.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 4.4 4.0 2.9 1.7 4.9 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 10.9 8.1 6.8 4.3 10.6 3.2 4.5 4.5 6.3 6.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -6.3 -13.0 0.6 -2.0 2.0 -8.3 -1.6 -1.4 1.6 2.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 52 24 -24 17 20 -4 30 1 -10 11 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 42 23 -30 4 19 -5 9 -1 -11 6 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 14 11 15 13 15 14 15 11 11 10 11 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.0 5.8 11.0 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.6 6.7 7.1 6.3 5.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 16 18 20 20 22 23 27 25 25 22 16 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 40 37 48 51 46 55 60 56 67 58 39 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 182 168 245 203 183 199 186 169 187 150 97 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 9 8 7 8 9 7 8 6 6 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 16 16 20 20 16 18 13 15 17 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 106 70 83 81 78 59 55 39 42 44 40 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 68 69 47 63 61 49 55 50 53 65 60 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 5 5 4 5 6 8 8 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8 10 11 11 11 15 19 19 11 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 37 43 56 44 44 53 57 56 32 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 23 43 31 34 35 44 57 73 40 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 9.5 11.5 9.8 11.3 9.5 8.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 42.5 9.8 21.5 12.9 10.3 9.4 4.6 8.7 7.2 9.9 na na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 80 82 94 104 102 113 113 117 121 123 122 122 124
Exchange rate ($) annual average 58 56 68 79 73 88 85 88 109 111 108 98 99
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ BB- BB BB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Slovenia 250 SVN 961 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 274: Slovenia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/A+/A- EODB Rank: 37 (30) - Strong Corruption Rank: 34 (31) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 86 (71) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.9 3.3 -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.0 2.3 3.1 5.0 4.0 3.2 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 32.9 32.7 23.4 22.2 21.7 18.7 19.5 19.6 19.4 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.6 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.8 5.9 5.5 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 35.2 38.0 36.2 36.3 36.9 36.1 36.2 37.6 38.8 40.4 43.3 45.9 48.4 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 48.2 55.9 50.4 48.1 51.3 46.4 48.1 50.0 43.1 44.7 48.9 56.9 60.6 NGDPD
Population (mn) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 LP
GDP per capita ($) 23,959 27,784 24,785 23,500 25,041 22,563 23,378 24,251 20,890 21,668 23,654 27,536 29,303 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 27.5 32.3 33.4 34.3 33.5 31.8 26.3 22.8 21.5 20.9 21.6 22.4 23.3Lending/GDP (%) 78.1 85.1 92.5 94.6 90.7 88.1 72.6 60.6 55.4 51.8 49.8 48.8 48.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 28.7 27.4 22.8 22.1 21.9 20.9 23.9 25.4 23.7 23.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.7 5.7 0.8 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.7 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 -0.4 0.5 1.7 1.7 2.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.3 -0.3 -5.4 -5.2 -5.5 -3.1 -13.8 -5.8 -3.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 1.2 0.5 -4.6 -4.0 -4.2 -1.4 -11.5 -2.8 -0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.5 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 22.7 21.6 34.5 38.2 46.4 53.8 70.4 80.3 82.6 78.4 75.4 72.1 69.8 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 23 30.2 34.2 26.1 29.2 34.7 32.2 34.0 36.0 31.9 32.9 38.4 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 24 31.6 37.1 26.6 30.1 35.5 32.1 33.4 33.9 29.8 30.5 36.0 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -1.5 -2.9 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -5.2 -1.0 -1.9 -1.6 0.3 1.3 4.0 4.9 5.3 5.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2.0 -3.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 2.9 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.1 -5.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 2.1 4.4 5.8 4.4 5.2 6.5 5.7 5.2 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.8 1.2 -0.5 0.1 1.1 0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.6 2.2 -0.9 0.2 2.1 0.7 -0.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.6 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 2.3 2.9 4.1 7.9 6.7 7.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 30 14 -24 12 19 -7 6 6 -11 3 17 na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 17 -28 13 18 -10 4 2 -12 2 18 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 53 56 60 56 54 57 57 57 51 47 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 109 101 119 117 105 122 119 115 118 106 107 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 174 164 230 193 155 176 169 160 159 143 136 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 15 15 15 13 12 16 10 9 9 10 11 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 27 31 27 24 33 22 18 21 23 23 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 49 44 59 44 36 48 30 25 28 31 29 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 1498 1748 1593 1383 1494 1982 1297 986 1183 1610 1494 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.24 1.25
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 A1 Baa2 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA AA AA AA AA- A A- A- A- A AA- AA- naFitch AA AA AA AA AA- A- BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ A- A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, BloombergSource: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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275Figure 275: Credit ratings ZAF Figure 276: Consensus forecasts Figure 279: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.9 1.9Moody's Baa3 Mar-18 (Baa2) = CPI (%) 5.0 5.2S&P BB Nov-17 (BBB-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -3.1 -3.4Fitch BB+ Apr-17 (BBB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -3.7 -3.6Local currencyMoody's Baa3 Mar-18 (Baa2) = FX vs $, YE 12.1 12.5S&P BB+ Nov-17 (BBB) = FX vs EUR, YE 15.2 16.3Fitch BB+ Apr-17 (BBB) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 277: Selected benchmark issuesAmt Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 280: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$SOAF 4 7/8 04/14/26 1,250 98.47 4.88 6.5 5.1 214.8 JK7319995SOAF 4.3 10/12/28 2,000 92.02 4.30 8.2 5.3 230.5 QZ7292142SOAF 5.65 09/27/47 1,500 96.18 5.65 13.9 5.9 290.1 AP2252371LocalSAGB 7 3/4 02/28/23 76,134 100.38 7.75 3.9 7.6 35.6 EJ2359440SAGB 10 1/2 12/21/26 208,253 113.97 10.50 5.6 8.2 51.8 CP5073947SAGB 8 3/4 02/28/48 188,762 96.73 8.75 10.1 9.1 113.2 EJ2359143Corporate$SAFTRA 4 07/26/22 1,000 97.31 4.00 3.8 4.7 181.3 EJ2936429ESKOM 7 1/8 02/11/25 1,250 102.35 7.13 5.3 6.7 374.3 EK7413587FSRSJ 6 1/4 04/23/28 500 100.71 6.25 4.2 6.3 317.0 AS1461365
Figure 281: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 278: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 75 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 79
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 16% EU 23%China 9% China 18%US 8% US 7%Japan 5% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesNamibia 5% India 5% Figure 282: CPI vs policy rateBotswana 5% Nigeria 4%UK 4% Saudi Arabia 3%India 4% UK 3%Mozambique 3% Thailand 2%
Product ProductMachinery and transport 23% Machinery and transport 34%Other machinery/transport 21% Other machinery/transport 24%Other manufactures 16% Other manufactures 19%Food items 11% Fuels 13%Other ores and metals 11% Chemicals 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
South Africa
1
3
5
7
Jan-
14Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4Oc
t-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5Oc
t-15
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6Oc
t-16
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17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
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18Ap
r-18
South Africa 2026 $ bond South Africa 2025 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
60
110
16068
101214161820
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
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11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
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13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
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15Ju
l-15
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16Ju
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17Ju
l-17
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18
ZAR vs $ZAR vs EUR
Weaker
Stronger
3
6
9
12
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
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12Ju
l-12
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13Ju
l-13
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18
South Africa 3M yield (zc)South Africa 2Y yield index
2
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4
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6
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8
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10Ju
l-10
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l-12
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18
South Africa CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 283: South Africa key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BB/BB+ EODB Rank: 82 (74) - Middle Corruption Rank: 71 (64) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 58 (60) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.4 3.2 -1.5 3.0 3.3 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.7Investment (% GDP) 21.0 23.2 20.7 19.5 19.7 20.0 21.2 20.5 21.0 19.4 18.6 18.7 18.8Unemployment rate year-end (%) 23.0 22.5 23.7 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.7 25.1 25.4 26.7 27.5 27.9 28.3Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,110 2,369 2,508 2,748 3,024 3,254 3,540 3,805 4,051 4,350 4,652 4,970 5,323Nominal GDP ($bn) 299 287 297 375 417 396 367 351 318 296 349 371 387Population (mn) 48.8 49.5 50.2 50.9 51.6 52.3 53.1 53.9 54.8 55.6 56.5 57.4 58.3GDP per capita ($) 6,124 5,802 5,926 7,381 8,083 7,574 6,908 6,509 5,803 5,316 6,180 6,459 6,632Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,785 2,051 2,053 2,186 2,309 2,550 2,702 2,942 3,261 3,411 3,612 3,829 4,058Lending/GDP (%) 84.6 86.6 81.9 79.6 76.4 78.4 76.3 77.3 80.5 78.4 77.6 77.0 76.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 15.6 17.6 18.0 18.0 17.5 14.8 15.3 15.2 16.6 16.1 16.3 15.8 15.8PricesCPI (average % YoY) 7.2 11.0 7.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.8 6.1 4.6 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.3CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.8 10.1 6.3 3.5 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 6.7 4.7 5.6 5.3Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 1.4 -0.5 -5.2 -5.0 -4.1 -4.4 -4.3 -4.3 -4.8 -4.1 -4.5 -4.2 -4.1Primary government balance 3.8 1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1Total public debt (% of GDP) 27.1 26.5 30.1 34.7 38.2 41.0 44.1 47.0 49.3 51.6 52.7 54.9 55.7External indicatorsExports ($bn) 52 63 73 54 91 109 100 96 91 81 75 89 na naImports ($bn) 72 91 96 71 88 109 110 110 106 91 79 88 na naTrade balance ($bn) -27.2 -22.9 -16.7 3.4 0.0 -10.8 -13.7 -14.7 -9.1 -4.6 1.3 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.1 -8.0 -5.6 0.9 0.0 -2.7 -3.7 -4.2 -2.9 -1.5 0.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -16.1 -15.9 -8.1 -5.6 -9.2 -20.3 -21.6 -18.7 -14.0 -9.6 -7.9 -10.6 -11.9Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -5.5 -2.7 -1.5 -2.2 -5.1 -5.9 -5.3 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 -2.9 -3.1Net FDI ($bn) 6.5 9.2 7.5 3.6 4.2 4.6 8.3 5.8 1.8 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.2 -2.3 -0.2 -0.5 -1.2 -4.0 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -2.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 15 -25 68 19 -9 -4 -5 -11 -8 19 na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 6 -26 24 24 1 -1 -3 -14 -12 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 29.6 30.6 35.2 38.2 42.6 44.0 44.9 44.3 41.6 42.6 45.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.9 3.8 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.4 6.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 77 75 83 111 118 142 137 145 124 143 173 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 26 26 28 30 28 36 37 41 39 48 50 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 122 103 152 122 109 143 143 159 152 191 194 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 24 25 21 22 21 28 27 35 29 30 33 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 9 7 6 5 7 7 10 9 10 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 38 35 39 24 19 28 28 38 36 40 37 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 81 83 60 57 48 63 61 79 70 70 72 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 8 5 6 6 10 13 8 8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 7 10 10 7 6 10 13 9 10 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 14 25 15 17 15 22 28 18 19 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 7.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 23.6 14.7 1.8 6.9 8.3 5.2 5.9 7.3 10.3 6.1 6.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 9.7 12.1 11.8 9.7 10.1 10.6 12.8 14.4 14.2 16.3 15.0 16.6 17.3
Exchange rate ($) annual average 7.1 8.3 8.4 7.3 7.3 8.2 9.7 10.8 12.8 14.7 13.3 13.4 13.8
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 *- Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BB BB naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
South Africa
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Sri Lanka 252 LKA 524 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 284: Sri Lanka key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B+/B+ EODB Rank: 111 (110) - Middle Corruption Rank: 91 (95) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 23 (22) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.8 6.0 3.5 8.0 8.4 9.1 3.4 5.0 5.0 4.5 3.1 4.0 4.5 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 30.2 29.7 28.4 30.4 33.4 39.1 33.2 32.3 28.4 31.5 31.9 32.3 33.2 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 4,096 5,048 5,534 6,414 7,219 8,732 9,592 10,361 10,951 11,907 13,289 14,524 15,899 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 37.0 46.6 48.1 56.7 65.3 68.4 74.5 79.3 79.6 81.0 87.6 93.5 99.7 NGDPD
Population (mn) 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 LP
GDP per capita ($) 1,859 2,302 2,350 2,743 3,127 3,350 3,618 3,820 3,795 3,819 4,085 4,309 4,543 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,225 1,303 1,245 1,637 2,738 3,367 3,724 4,212 5,133 5,990 6,889 7,991 9,030Lending/GDP (%) 29.9 25.8 22.5 25.5 37.9 38.6 38.8 40.7 46.9 50.3 51.8 55.0 56.8Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 26.4 21.4 28.0 28.5 26.3 33.2 29.8 29.8 26.1 29.1 29.0 29.6 30.7 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 15.8 9.6 3.4 6.3 6.7 7.5 6.9 2.8 2.2 4.0 6.5 4.8 4.8 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 18.8 13.9 5.1 6.8 4.9 9.3 4.6 1.4 4.6 4.5 7.1 4.7 4.8 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.0 -6.1 -8.6 -7.0 -6.2 -5.6 -5.2 -6.2 -7.0 -5.4 -5.5 -4.4 -3.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance -1.5 -1.9 -3.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 74.3 71.1 75.2 71.6 71.1 69.6 71.8 72.2 78.5 79.6 79.4 77.3 75.2 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 7 8.3 9.0 7.9 9.6 11.2 10.1 11.2 10.9 9.7 10.0 11.2 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 10 9.7 11.8 8.0 10.5 17.1 15.8 17.9 19.2 15.1 19.2 21.0 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -1.5 -2.9 -0.1 -0.9 -5.9 -5.8 -6.7 -8.3 -5.4 -9.2 -9.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -6.2 -0.2 -1.6 -9.0 -8.4 -9.0 -10.5 -6.8 -11.4 -11.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1.4 -3.9 -0.2 -1.1 -4.6 -4.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.8 -8.3 -0.4 -1.9 -7.1 -5.8 -3.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.9 -2.7 -2.5 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.2 -6.7 0.4 -1.1 -5.6 -4.4 -2.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 8 -11 21 17 -10 11 -3 -11 3 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) -3 22 -32 31 63 -8 13 7 -21 27 9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3 2 5 7 6 6 7 7 7 5 7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.2 2.5 6.9 7.7 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 5.2 3.2 4.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 15 14 17 21 0 37 40 43 45 46 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 41 29 35 37 0 54 54 54 56 57 59 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 182 153 214 220 0 368 356 394 460 462 461 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 0 0 1 0 6 7 7 8 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 7 0 1 1 0 9 9 9 10 9 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 0 3 6 0 64 60 67 78 73 68 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 72 0 6 9 0 101 102 99 116 142 109 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 6 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 8 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 11 14 18 15 12 20 18 58 35 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 26 50 31 21 21 32 31 87 52 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.0 7.0 7.3 7.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 15.6 11.7 19.9 18.0 20.9 18.3 18.0 13.1 17.2 18.9 17.5 na na FM2_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 152 159 160 150 154 164 171 173 153 163 171 193 200
Exchange rate ($) annual average 111 108 115 113 111 128 129 131 138 147 152 155 160
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's B+ B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch BB- B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Taiwan 253 TWN 528 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 285: Taiwan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AA-u/AA- EODB Rank: 15 (11) - Strong Corruption Rank: 29 (31) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 0.7 -1.6 10.6 3.8 2.1 2.2 4.0 0.8 1.4 2.8 1.9 2.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 24.0 24.5 19.9 25.0 23.6 22.5 22.1 21.9 20.9 20.8 20.5 20.5 20.8 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 3.9 4.1 5.9 5.2 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 13,407 13,151 12,962 14,119 14,312 14,687 15,231 16,112 16,771 17,152 17,635 18,335 19,051 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 408 417 392 446 486 496 512 531 526 531 579 613 621 NGDPD
Population (mn) 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 LP
GDP per capita ($) 17,781 18,103 16,960 19,262 20,912 21,270 21,888 22,639 22,374 22,541 24,577 25,977 26,245 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 17,077 17,267 17,175 18,326 19,423 20,442 21,526 22,754 23,784 24,798 26,038 26,819 27,624Lending/GDP (%) 127.4 131.3 132.5 129.8 135.7 139.2 141.3 141.2 141.8 144.6 147.7 146.3 145.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 34.5 32.0 32.0 35.1 33.1 33.0 33.9 35.1 37.0 36.1 32.8 32.8 32.9 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 1.2 -0.3 1.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.3 1.3 -0.2 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.2 -2.7 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 -4.3 -3.2 -2.7 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance na na na na na na na na na na na na na GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 32.1 33.3 36.6 36.7 38.2 39.2 39.0 37.8 36.6 36.2 35.2 33.6 31.8 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) na 258 270 215 289 326 388 382 379 337 310 350 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) na 220 240 176 252 286 339 328 319 264 239 269 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 38.5 29.2 39.4 37.0 39.6 49.6 54.6 60.2 73.1 70.6 81.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 9.4 7.0 10.0 8.3 8.2 10.0 10.7 11.3 13.9 13.3 14.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 32.0 24.8 40.7 36.8 37.9 44.3 51.3 61.8 75.2 71.9 80.1 83.4 83.6 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 7.8 5.9 10.4 8.3 7.8 8.9 10.0 11.7 14.3 13.6 13.8 13.6 13.5 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 7.8 5.4 2.8 2.5 -2.0 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.4 8.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9.7 7.2 11.1 8.8 7.4 9.6 10.7 12.2 14.8 15.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) na 4 -20 34 13 19 -2 -1 -11 -8 13 na naImports (% YoY, value) na 9 -27 43 13 18 -3 -3 -17 -9 12 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 270 292 348 382 386 403 417 419 426 434 452 na naImport cover (months of imports) 14.7 14.6 23.7 18.2 16.2 14.3 15.3 15.8 19.4 21.8 20.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 87 74 65 97 105 101 150 145 119 129 148 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 21 18 17 22 22 20 29 27 23 24 26 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 34 27 30 33 32 26 39 38 35 42 42 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 50 40 54 93 81 81 113 115 89 99 122 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 9 14 21 17 16 22 22 17 19 21 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 20 15 25 32 25 21 29 30 26 32 35 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 19 14 15 24 21 20 27 28 21 23 27 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 0.8 7.2 5.8 5.4 4.8 3.5 5.8 6.1 5.8 3.6 3.6 na na over
Exchange rate (€) annual average 45.0 46.4 46.1 42.0 41.0 38.1 39.5 40.3 35.4 35.8 34.4 37.1 38.5
Exchange rate ($) annual average 32.8 31.5 33.1 31.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.4 31.9 32.3 30.4 29.9 30.7
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA-u AA-u AA-u naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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286Figure 286: Credit ratings TJK Figure 287: Consensus forecasts Figure 290: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Aug-17 = - CPI (%) na naS&P B- Aug-17 = - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - - na - Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Aug-17 = - FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Aug-17 = - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - na - Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 288: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 291: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$TAJIKI 7 ⅛ 09/14/27 500 93.14 7.13 5.9 8.2 540.2 AO9419067
JV6456919EK6947437
ED7791103QJ1649335EJ1291206
Figure 292: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 289: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 1 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 3
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 6% China 42%China 5% EU 4%US 3% US 0%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countries Note: REER avg from 2009 - 2017 owing to lack of dataTurkey 20% 42% Figure 293: CPI vs policy rateKazakhstan 18% Russia 18%Switzerland 14% Kazakhstan 13%Iran 9% Iran 5%Afghanistan 8% Turkey 4%
Product ProductNon-Ferrous Metals 35% Other manufactures 33%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 19% Machinery and transport 18%Agricultural raw materials 16% Food items 17%Other ores and metals 15% Other machinery/transport 13%Other manufactures 13% Textiles, fabrics and clothing 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Tajikistan
60
110
4
9
14
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
TJS vs $ TJS vs EURTajikistan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
na
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
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l-12
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l-14
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l-15
Jan-
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l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Tajikistan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
0
2
4
6
8
10
31 A
ug 17
30 S
ep 17
31 O
ct 17
30 N
ov 17
31 D
ec 17
31 Ja
n 18
28 F
eb 18
31 M
ar 18
Tajikistan 2027 $ bond US generic 10y YtM
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Figure 294: Tajikistan key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/- EODB Rank: 123 (128) - Middle Corruption Rank: 161 (151) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.8 7.9 3.9 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.7 6.0 6.9 7.1 4.0 4.0Investment (% GDP) 27.4 21.9 18.4 17.7 21.3 17.9 15.3 15.8 18.9 22.2 20.8 19.0 20.4Unemployment rate year-end (%) 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.5 na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 13 18 21 25 30 36 41 46 48 54 62 69 76Nominal GDP ($bn) 3.7 5.1 5.0 5.6 6.5 7.6 8.5 9.2 7.9 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.2Population (mn) 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2GDP per capita ($) 514 696 661 741 836 953 1,046 1,113 927 803 824 849 888Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 4.4 4.7 7.2 9.5 10.7 9.6 7.6 na naLending/GDP (%) 13.2 14.3 13.1 12.7 14.7 13.0 17.9 20.9 22.2 17.7 12.3 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 14.1 22.8 14.8 8.1 14.0 8.7 7.6 12.9 12.9 18.4 18.2 13.8 15.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 13.2 20.4 6.4 6.5 12.4 5.8 5.0 6.1 5.8 5.9 7.3 6.3 6.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 19.8 11.9 4.9 9.8 9.3 6.4 3.7 7.4 5.1 6.1 6.7 6.3 6.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.5 -5.1 -5.2 -3.0 -2.1 0.6 -0.8 0.0 -1.9 -9.8 -2.4 -7.4 -5.4Primary government balance -5.1 -4.8 -4.7 -2.5 -1.6 1.2 0.1 0.4 -1.5 -8.3 -1.1 -6.1 -3.9Total public debt (% of GDP) 34.2 30.2 36.9 36.8 35.9 32.4 29.1 27.5 34.3 41.8 47.8 50.2 49.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 na naImports ($bn) 2 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.9 5.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 na naTrade balance ($bn) -1.1 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2.2 -2.6 -4.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -29.6 -36.6 -29.4 -24.5 -29.5 -29.1 -30.7 -47.3 -29.5 -34.6 -32.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -13.3 0.9 -3.6 -9.6 -7.3 -9.2 -7.8 -2.8 -6.0 -3.8 -2.6 -5.2 -4.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 10.6 9.5 1.9 1.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 2.8 2.9 6.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.7 10.4 -1.7 -8.3 -4.9 -6.1 -6.5 0.0 -3.1 2.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 4.8 -1.6 -29.8 22.4 5.7 11.0 -12.9 -21.3 5.5 -22.1 13.5 na naImports (% YoY, value) 51.1 29.1 -25.5 6.0 23.0 13.4 5.6 37.9 -37.1 -4.5 3.0 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 2.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 4.8 4.8 5.3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 20.0 26.7 36.6 37.2 16.7 16.2 16.0 13.4 60.5 68.9 73.2 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 49 92 175 165 81 82 104 121 440 569 558 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.0 0.8 12.2 11.7 0.4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.0 13.3 7.3 88.8 96.7 3.1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 292 0 0 0 15 25 38 42 1,490 758 5 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1.7 2.5 9.4 12.3 9.0 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 9.2 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4.3 8.5 44.7 54.5 43.8 29.5 33.7 42.6 31.6 75.9 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 4,310 2,374 5,365 3,797 3,126 1,952 1,120 2,662 6,745 8,568 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 15.0 13.5 8.0 8.3 9.8 6.5 5.5 8.0 8.0 11.0 16.0 14.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 80.2 -2.1 40.7 18.6 33.1 19.6 19.7 7.1 18.7 37.1 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 4.72 5.04 5.78 5.81 6.42 6.12 6.33 6.56 6.84 8.67 9.66 11.11 11.60
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.44 3.43 4.14 4.38 4.61 4.76 4.76 4.93 6.16 7.83 8.55 8.96 9.25
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - - B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - B- B- naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Tajikistan
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Tanzania 254 TZA 738 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 295: Tanzania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/-/- EODB Rank: 137 (132) - Weak Corruption Rank: 103 (116) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 28 (29) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 8.8 5.6 5.4 6.4 7.9 5.1 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.6 5.6 NGDP_RPCH
Private consumption (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NID_NGDP
Government consumption (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Investment (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NGDP
Nominal GDP (TZStn) 26.8 32.6 37.8 43.6 52.4 61.3 71.0 79.7 90.8 103.7 116.2 130.3 146.1 1000
Nominal GDP (€bn) 15.7 18.5 20.4 22.8 23.7 30.1 33.0 35.0 38.3 43.2 45.4 45.9 47.5 LP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 21.6 27.2 28.5 30.2 33.0 38.6 43.9 47.9 44.6 47.4 51.9 55.9 60.2 NGDPDPC
Population (mn) 39.7 40.7 41.8 42.8 43.9 44.9 45.8 46.7 47.7 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.6GDP per capita ($) 544 668 682 705 752 860 957 1,025 935 975 1,046 1,105 1,166Gross national saving (% of GDP) 22.6 22.3 18.9 21.8 21.7 19.5 14.9 21.9 24.7 23.0 24.1 24.6 24.8 NGSD_NGDP
Bank credit to private sector (TZStn) 3.0 4.4 4.8 5.8 7.4 8.7 10.2 12.1 14.1 16.3 17.6 19.7 22.6Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 11.1 13.4 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.2 14.3 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.1 15.1 15.5 PCPIPCH
Loan to deposit ratio 56.9 70.9 64.6 62.3 67.1 69.9 68.7 70.0 70.5 71.0 70.5 71.0 71.0 PCPIEPCH
PricesCPI (average %YoY) 7.0 10.3 12.1 7.2 12.7 16.0 7.9 6.1 5.6 5.2 5.6 6.5 5.8 GGXCNL_NGDP
CPI (end-year %YoY) 6.4 13.5 12.2 5.6 19.8 12.1 5.6 4.8 6.8 5.0 5.4 6.0 5.5 GGXONLB_NGDP
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) GGXWDG_NGDP
General government budget balance* -1.7 -4.5 -6.4 -6.9 -5.0 -5.0 -3.9 -3.0 -3.3 -3.1 -3.4 -4.5 -4.6Total public debt 21.6 21.6 24.3 27.5 28.0 29.2 30.9 33.8 36.7 37.2 37.4 38.3 39.5 TXG_FOB_USD
External balance TMG_CIF_USD
Exports ($bn) 2.2 3.6 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.5Imports ($bn) 4.9 7.0 5.8 7.2 9.8 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.4 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.0Trade balance ($bn) -2.6 -3.4 -2.5 -2.8 -4.7 -5.1 -5.4 -5.4 -4.7 -2.9 -3.6 -3.9 -4.5 BCA
Trade balance (% of GDP) -12.2 -12.6 -8.9 -9.4 -14.3 -13.1 -12.3 -11.2 -10.5 -6.1 -6.9 -7.0 -7.5 BCA_NGDPD
Current account balance ($bn) -1.7 -2.6 -1.8 -1.9 -4.0 -4.5 -4.7 -4.6 -3.9 -2.2 -2.0 -2.9 -3.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.9 -9.4 -6.3 -6.4 -12.0 -11.7 -10.7 -9.6 -8.7 -4.6 -3.8 -5.2 -5.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.7 4.6 3.3 6.0 4.1 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -5.3 -4.8 -3.0 -0.4 -7.9 -7.0 -6.1 -5.3 -4.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.6 -2.4Exports (%YoY, value) 16 61 -8 31 18 7 1 2 2 -5 0 9 10Imports (%YoY, value) 26 44 -17 23 37 7 3 1 -6 -20 8 9 12Gross official reserves ($bn) 2.7 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.0Import cover (months of imports) 6.7 4.9 7.3 6.6 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.4 6.5 6.1 5.5Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 6 7 8 10 10 9 12 13 13 15 16 17 17Gross external debt (% of GDP) 27 26 29 32 31 25 27 27 29 31 31 30 28Gross external debt (% of exports) 263 196 249 223 203 173 211 230 223 269 296 280 262Total debt service ($bn) 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 2 3 -1 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1Total debt service (% of exports) 2 2 1 1 2 4 4 3 4 8 9 10 9Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, M2 (%YoY) 27.2 24.4 20.8 21.8 15.0 16.0 10.9 17.0 10.0 12.0 9.0 11.0 14.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 42.2 47.0 9.8 20.6 27.6 17.9 15.3 19.4 16.4 15.4 8.0 12.0 15.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 9.9 11.2 6.1 5.2 12.6 11.9 13.6 13.2 10.8 7.0 5.0 7.0 9.03-month interest rate spread over $-Libor (ppt) 3.9 8.4 5.5 4.5 11.5 11.4 13.1 12.6 10.0 5.6 3.3 4.9 9.05Y yield (% YE) 17.6 16.4 13.5 11.6 13.2 14.9 15.4 14.6 17.5 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.4 FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (TZS/EUR) year-end 1,683 1,838 1,920 1,987 2,050 2,091 2,192 2,013 2,214 2,300 2,641 2,844 3,034Exchange rate (TZS/EUR) annual average 1,701 1,764 1,849 1,914 2,209 2,040 2,148 2,280 2,371 2,399 2,561 2,840 3,073Exchange rate (TZS/$) year-end 1,154 1,318 1,340 1,484 1,582 1,585 1,590 1,733 2,149 2,181 2,295 2,367 2,488Exchange rate (TZS/$) annual average 1,241 1,199 1,326 1,442 1,586 1,587 1,617 1,664 2,039 2,187 2,238 2,331 2,428Credit rating historyMoody's - - - - - - - - - - - B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - na
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Tanzania, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
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Thailand 255 THA 578 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 296: Thailand key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 26 (46) - Strong Corruption Rank: 96 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 66 (51) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.4 1.7 -0.7 7.5 0.8 7.2 2.7 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 25.5 28.2 20.6 25.4 26.8 28.0 27.5 23.9 22.3 21.1 22.8 24.2 24.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 9,076 9,707 9,659 10,808 11,307 12,357 12,915 13,230 13,747 14,533 15,450 16,150 17,003 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 263 291 282 341 371 398 420 407 401 412 455 484 520 NGDPD
Population (mn) 66.1 66.5 67.0 67.3 67.6 68.0 68.3 68.7 68.8 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.3 LP
GDP per capita ($) 3,978 4,380 4,208 5,065 5,482 5,850 6,154 5,933 5,831 5,970 6,591 6,992 7,510 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 8,752 9,364 9,722 10,863 12,580 14,370 15,656 16,331 17,138 17,816 18,653 19,399 20,175Lending/GDP (%) 96.4 96.5 100.7 100.5 111.3 116.3 121.2 123.4 124.7 122.6 120.7 120.1 118.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 31.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.3 27.6 26.3 27.7 30.3 32.8 33.7 33.5 33.3 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.2 5.5 -0.8 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.9 -0.9 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.7 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.0 0.5 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.6 1.7 0.6 -0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.2 0.8 -2.2 -1.3 0.0 -0.9 0.5 -0.8 0.1 0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 1.1 1.6 -1.5 -0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.3 -0.1 0.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 36.0 34.9 42.4 39.8 39.1 41.9 42.2 43.3 42.5 41.8 41.9 41.6 41.6 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 131 154 176 152 193 220 227 224 225 211 214 236 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 131 141 179 135 185 229 250 250 228 202 195 225 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 12.6 -3.3 17.2 8.2 -8.9 -23.1 -25.1 -3.2 8.9 18.7 11.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4.8 -1.1 6.1 2.4 -2.4 -5.8 -6.0 -0.8 2.2 4.5 2.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 15.6 0.9 22.2 11.5 9.4 -1.7 -4.9 15.2 32.1 48.2 49.3 45.0 44.8 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.9 0.3 7.9 3.4 2.5 -0.4 -1.2 3.7 8.0 11.7 10.8 9.3 8.6 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 7.9 9.1 7.8 14.6 3.3 16.5 16.7 3.5 10.8 1.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.0 3.1 2.8 4.3 0.9 4.2 4.0 0.9 2.7 0.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 8.9 3.4 10.6 7.6 3.4 3.7 2.8 4.6 10.7 12.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 14 -14 27 14 3 -1 0 -6 1 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 27 -25 37 24 9 0 -9 -11 -3 15 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 85 109 135 168 167 173 161 151 151 166 196 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.2 7.3 12.1 10.9 8.8 8.3 7.8 8.0 9.0 10.2 10.5 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 74 76 75 101 104 131 142 142 131 132 149 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 28 26 27 29 28 33 34 35 33 32 33 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 30 29 30 46 38 46 45 46 43 46 53 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 10 11 14 10 12 11 11 11 11 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 20 16 20 24 17 20 20 20 21 21 22 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 36 26 22 28 23 27 28 30 29 28 27 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 22 17 13 11 10 15 13 15 19 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8 6 5 3 3 4 3 4 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 14 10 8 6 5 7 6 7 9 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 26 16 9 7 6 9 8 10 13 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.3 9.2 6.8 10.9 15.2 10.3 7.3 4.7 4.4 4.2 5.0 na na over4
Exchange rate (€) annual average 47.3 49.0 47.8 42.0 42.5 40.0 40.8 43.1 38.0 39.1 38.3 41.4 41.0
Exchange rate ($) annual average 34.5 33.3 34.3 31.7 30.5 31.1 30.7 32.5 34.2 35.3 33.9 33.4 32.7
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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65
TUN
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19E
Foreign currency Real GDP (%) 2.7 na
Moody's B2 Mar-18 (B1) = CPI (%) 5.0 na
S&P NR na C/A bal. (% GDP) -8.5 na
Fitch B+ Feb-17 (BB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -5.1 na
Local currency
Moody's B2 Mar-18 (B1) = FX vs $, YE na na
S&P NR na FX vs EUR, YE na na
Fitch B+ Feb-17 (BB-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Amt. Out Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps)
Sovereign
$
BTUN 5 ¾ 01/30/25 1,000 92.79 5.75 5.4 7.1 416.7 XS1175223699
BTUN 8 ¼ 09/19/27 150 109.96 8.25 6.6 6.8 382.0 DD113180
€
BTUN 4 ½ 06/22/20 400 104.26 4.50 2.0 2.4 254.7 ED9751675
BTUN 5 ⅝ 02/17/24 850 101.94 5.63 4.8 5.2 475.3 AM3615623
¥
BTUN 2.04 08/07/23 22,400 105.04 2.04 5.0 1.0 93.3 EJ7708872
BTUN 1.61 10/10/24 50,000 106.00 1.61 6.2 0.6 50.5 EK5031746
Exports, 2016 ($bn) 13 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 19
Geographic share Geographic share
Euro area 67% Euro area 54%
US 4% China 6%
China 1% US 3%
Japan 1% Japan 0%
Other key countries Other key countries
Libya 6% Algeria 8%
Algeria 3% Turkey 4%
UK 1% Libya 2%
Morocco 1% Ukraine 2%
Switzerland 1% Brazil 1%
Product Product
Other manufactures 36% Machinery and transport 34%
Machinery and transport 36% Other manufactures 25%
Other machinery/transport 25% Other machinery/transport 25%
Textiles, fabrics and clothing 21% Fuels 12%
Food items 11% Chemicals 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Tunisia
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan-
14
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-14
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4
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-14
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15
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5
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-15
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-16
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6
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-16
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17
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-17
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7
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-17
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-18
Bank of Tunisia 2025 $ US generic 10y YtM
70
80
90
100
110
120
1301.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
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10
Jul-1
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11
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12
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18
TND vs $ TND vs EURTunisia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
0
2
4
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8
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11
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14
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15
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17
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18
Tunisia CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)
0
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10
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15
Jul-1
5
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16
Jul-1
6
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18
Tunisia 12m auction yield Tunisia 5y auction yield
Tunisia 10y auction yield
Figure 297: Credit ratings Figure 298: Consensus forecasts Figure 301: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Figure 299: Selected benchmark issues
Figure 302: Government bond yields (lcl)
Figure 303: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 300: Trade profile
Figure 304: CPI vs policy rate
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Ratings (M/S&P/F) B2/NR/B+ EODB Rank: 88 (77) - Middle Corruption Rank: 74 (75) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 49 (53) - Middle
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
Activity
Real GDP (% YoY) 6.3 4.5 3.1 2.6 -1.9 3.9 2.4 2.3 1.1 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.9
Investment (% GDP) 23.7 25.5 24.7 25.6 23.1 24.4 22.7 23.2 21.4 22.2 22.5 23.1 23.5
Unemployment rate year-end (%) 12.4 12.4 13.3 13.0 18.9 16.7 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.8
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 49.9 55.3 58.9 63.1 64.5 70.4 75.2 80.8 84.7 90.4 97.4 106.2 115.4
Nominal GDP ($bn) 38.9 44.8 43.6 44.1 45.8 45.0 46.3 47.6 43.2 42.1 40.3 40.3 42.0
Population (mn) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.8
GDP per capita ($) 3,805 4,341 4,179 4,177 4,292 4,180 4,249 4,329 3,884 3,690 3,496 3,463 3,569
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 29 33 37 44 49 54 58 63 67 73 83 93 104
Lending/GDP (%) 57.9 59.9 62.0 69.1 76.5 76.3 76.9 78.1 79.3 81.1 85.6 87.9 89.8
Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 21.3 21.7 21.9 20.8 15.7 16.1 14.4 14.0 12.5 13.4 12.4 14.0 15.7
Prices
CPI (average % YoY) 3.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.5 5.1 5.8 4.9 4.9 3.7 5.3 7.0 6.1
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.9 4.4 3.3 3.3 3.9 5.9 5.7 4.8 4.1 4.2 6.4 6.5 5.9
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Consolidated government balance -2.6 -0.7 -2.7 -2.2 -4.3 -5.2 -7.3 -3.7 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.2 -3.4
Primary government balance -0.2 1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.4 -3.4 -5.5 -1.8 -3.3 -3.7 -3.6 -2.6 -0.8
Total public debt (% of GDP) 44.8 42.0 40.5 39.2 43.1 47.7 46.8 51.6 54.8 61.2 71.3 73.1 73.3
External indicators
Exports ($bn) 11 14.8 18.6 14.0 15.8 17.2 16.3 16.3 16.0 13.4 12.9 13.5 na na
Imports ($bn) 15 19.1 24.5 19.1 21.9 23.5 24.0 23.8 25.0 20.4 19.0 20.1 na na
Trade balance ($bn) -4.3 -5.9 -5.2 -6.0 -6.3 -7.7 -7.5 -9.0 -7.0 -6.1 -6.6 na na
Trade balance (% of GDP) -11.0 -13.2 -11.9 -13.7 -13.8 -17.1 -16.1 -19.0 -16.2 -14.5 -16.3 na na
Current account balance ($bn) -0.9 -1.7 -1.2 -2.1 -3.4 -3.7 -3.9 -4.3 -3.8 -3.7 -4.0 -3.7 -3.3
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -3.8 -2.8 -4.8 -7.4 -8.3 -8.4 -9.1 -8.9 -8.8 -10.1 -9.2 -7.8
Net FDI ($bn) 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 na na na
Net FDI (% of GDP) 4.2 6.2 3.9 3.4 2.5 3.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 na na na
C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 2.3 1.0 -1.4 -4.9 -4.7 -6.0 -6.9 -6.6 -6.5 na na na
Exports (% YoY, value) 30 26 -25 13 8 -5 0 -2 -16 -4 5 na na
Imports (% YoY, value) 27 29 -22 14 7 2 -1 5 -18 -7 6 na na
FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.9 8.8 11.1 9.5 7.5 8.4 7.3 7.2 7.3 5.9 0.0 na na
Import cover (months of imports) 4.9 4.3 6.9 5.2 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.5 4.3 3.7 0.0 na na
External Debt
Gross external debt YE ($bn) 20 21 22 22 22 25 27 28 29 29 33 na na
Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) 53 47 51 50 49 56 58 58 66 69 83 na na
Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 138 112 159 139 131 156 164 173 213 224 248 na na
Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 na na
Short-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 10 11 11 11 14 14 14 15 16 18 na na
Short-term external debt YE (% of exports) 27 23 35 31 29 38 40 43 49 52 53 na na
Short-term external debt to reserves (%) 51 49 44 53 66 75 90 95 90 114 na na na
Total debt service ($bn) 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 na na na na
Total debt service (% of GDP) 6 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 na na na na
Total debt service (% of exports) 17 11 15 15 15 16 15 12 15 na na na na
Total debt service to reserves (%) 32 23 19 25 36 31 34 26 28 na na na na
Currency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.8 4.3 4.3 5.0 5.8 na
Broad money growth (%YoY) 12.4 14.2 12.7 12.2 9.1 8.5 6.1 8.7 5.1 8.0 10.1 na na
Exchange rate (€) annual average 1.76 1.81 1.88 1.90 1.96 2.01 2.16 2.26 2.18 2.38 2.73 3.27 3.45
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.28 1.23 1.35 1.43 1.41 1.56 1.62 1.70 1.96 2.15 2.42 2.63 2.75
Credit rating history Latest
Moody's Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 na
Standard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB - - - NR NR NR na
Fitch BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ na
Note: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
TunisiaFigure 305: Tunisia key economic indicators
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306Figure 306: Credit ratings TUR Figure 307: Consensus forecasts Figure 310: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.3 4.1Moody's Ba2 Mar-18 (Ba1) = CPI (%) 10.1 9.2S&P BBu Jul-16 (BB+) – C/A bal. (% GDP) -5.5 -5.2Fitch BB+ Jan-17 (BBB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.1 -2.5Local currencyMoody's Ba2 Mar-18 (Ba1) = FX vs $, YE 4.1 4.2S&P BB+u Jul-16 (BBB-) – FX vs EUR, YE 5.1 5.5Fitch BBB- Jul-16 (BBB) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 308: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 311: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$TURKEY 6 1/4 09/26/22 2,500 105.34 6.25 3.8 4.9 198.0 EI9661808TURKEY 7 3/8 02/05/25 3,250 110.13 7.38 5.3 5.6 259.9 ED7777532TURKEY 6 1/8 10/24/28 2,000 100.03 6.13 7.6 6.1 311.6 AS2461893TURKEY 5 3/4 05/11/47 3,500 87.72 5.75 12.7 6.7 367.8 AN4636584Local AH0049611TURKGB 12.2 01/18/23 12,749 97.27 12.20 3.4 13.0 -104.1 AQ8745293TURKGB 10 1/2 08/11/27 19,069 90.81 10.50 5.5 12.2 -47.8 AO8340504Corporate$AKBNK 5 1/8 03/31/25 500 95.06 5.13 5.7 6.0 304.5 EK8261373GARAN 5 7/8 03/16/23 500 100.56 5.88 4.2 5.7 281.9 AM7986749EXCRTU 6 1/8 05/03/24 500 99.84 6.13 5.0 6.2 321.0 AS4022727TCZIRA 5 1/8 09/29/23 500 96.00 5.13 4.6 6.0 306.6 AP2864852Figure 312: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)KCHOL 5 1/4 03/15/23 750 100.99 5.25 4.0 5.0 209.1 JK4093643TUPRST 4 1/2 10/18/24 700 94.94 4.50 5.5 5.4 248.1 AP4218578CCOLAT 4.215 09/19/24 500 96.84 4.22 5.5 4.8 183.8 AP1153984
Figure 309: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 143 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 199
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 30% EU 29%US 4% China 12%China 2% US 5%Japan 0% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesUK 7% Russia 10% Figure 313: CPI vs policy rateIraq 6% Korea 3%Switzerland 4% Iran 3%UAE 3% India 3%Iran 3% UK 3%
Product ProductOther manufactures 41% Machinery and transport 35%Machinery and transport 29% Other machinery/transport 27%Other machinery/transport 24% Other manufactures 20%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 18% Chemicals 14%Food items 11% Electronic components 6%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Turkey
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2
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4
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7
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14Ma
r-14
May-1
4Ju
l-14
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14No
v-14
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15Ma
r-15
May-1
5Ju
l-15
Sep-
15No
v-15
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16Ma
r-16
May-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep-
16No
v-16
Jan-
17Ma
r-17
May-1
7Ju
l-17
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17No
v-17
Jan-
18Ma
r-18
Turkey 2028 $ bond Turkey generic 10y yield ($)US generic 10y YtM
7075808590951001051.0
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TRY vs $ TRY vs EURTurkey REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
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Stronger
3
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Turkey 3M yield Turkey 2Y yield indexTurkey 5Y yield index Turkey 10Y yield index
0
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Turkey CPI, % YoY 1wk Repo rate (%)O/N Lending rate Late Liquidity window
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Figure 314: Turkey key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BBu/BB+ EODB Rank: 60 (69) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (75) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 25 (36) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.0 0.8 -4.7 8.5 11.1 4.8 8.5 5.2 6.1 3.2 7.0 4.4 4.0Investment (% GDP) 28.7 28.9 23.0 27.0 31.3 28.3 29.8 29.0 28.4 28.2 30.9 31.3 31.1Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.2 10.0 13.1 11.1 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.0 10.7 10.7Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 880 995 999 1,160 1,394 1,570 1,810 2,044 2,339 2,609 3,099 3,611 4,170Nominal GDP ($bn) 675 765 644 772 832 874 950 934 859 863 849 910 962Population (mn) 70.6 71.5 72.6 73.7 74.7 75.6 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.8 80.8 81.9 82.9GDP per capita ($) 9,563 10,692 8,882 10,476 11,141 11,553 12,395 12,022 10,915 10,817 10,512 11,114 11,602Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 265 330 373 517 679 807 1,078 1,277 1,534 1,791 2,168 2,537 2,917Lending/GDP (%) 30.1 33.1 37.3 44.6 48.7 51.4 59.6 62.5 65.6 68.6 70.0 70.2 69.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.3 24.0 21.4 21.3 22.4 22.8 23.2 24.4 24.8 24.5 25.8 26.0 26.5PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.8 10.4 6.3 8.6 6.5 8.9 7.5 8.9 7.7 7.8 11.1 11.4 10.5CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.4 10.1 6.5 6.4 10.4 6.2 7.4 8.2 8.8 8.5 11.9 10.9 10.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.9 -2.7 -5.9 -3.4 -0.7 -1.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9 -3.2Primary government balance 2.7 1.5 -1.5 0.1 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 38.2 38.2 43.9 40.1 36.5 32.7 31.4 28.8 27.6 28.3 28.5 27.8 27.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 85 107 132 102 114 135 152 152 158 144 143 157 na naImports ($bn) 139 170 202 141 186 241 237 252 242 207 199 234 na naTrade balance ($bn) -63.4 -69.9 -38.8 -71.7 -105.9 -84.1 -99.9 -84.6 -63.4 -56.1 -76.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.4 -9.1 -6.0 -9.3 -12.7 -9.6 -10.5 -9.1 -7.4 -6.5 -9.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -36.9 -39.4 -11.4 -44.6 -74.4 -48.0 -63.6 -43.6 -32.1 -33.1 -47.1 -49.1 -45.9Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -5.2 -1.8 -5.8 -8.9 -5.5 -6.7 -4.7 -3.7 -3.8 -5.5 -5.4 -4.8Net FDI ($bn) 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.1 13.3 12.3 12.1 16.5 12.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.3 2.6 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.6 -0.4 -4.6 -7.0 -4.0 -5.4 -3.4 -1.8 -2.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 25.1 23.9 -22.6 11.5 18.5 13.0 -0.4 3.8 -8.7 -0.9 10.2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 21.9 18.9 -30.2 31.7 29.8 -1.8 6.4 -3.8 -14.4 -4.2 17.7 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 73.4 70.4 70.9 80.7 78.3 99.9 110.9 106.9 92.9 92.1 84.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.2 4.2 6.0 5.2 3.9 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.6 4.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 250 281 269 292 305 342 392 405 399 408 453 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37.0 36.7 41.7 37.8 36.7 39.1 41.3 43.4 46.5 47.3 53.4 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 43 53 49 77 83 102 133 135 105 101 118 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6.4 6.9 7.6 10.0 10.0 11.7 14.0 14.5 12.2 11.7 13.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 40.5 39.8 47.9 67.8 61.6 67.1 87.8 85.7 73.1 71.1 74.9 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 59 75 69 96 106 102 120 126 113 110 140 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 49.3 55.9 62.9 59.4 58.1 56.9 63.8 58.0 21.9 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7.3 7.3 9.8 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.2 2.5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 46.3 42.4 61.5 52.1 43.0 37.3 42.1 36.8 15.2 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 67.2 79.4 88.7 73.6 74.1 56.9 57.5 54.3 23.5 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na 5.8 5.5 4.5 8.3 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 15.3 24.7 13.0 18.4 15.4 10.5 21.1 11.7 16.2 17.8 15.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.79 1.91 2.16 1.99 2.33 2.31 2.53 2.91 3.02 3.34 4.12 4.92 5.44
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.30 1.30 1.55 1.50 1.68 1.80 1.90 2.19 2.72 3.02 3.65 3.97 4.34
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BBu BBu BBu naFitch BB- BB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Turkey
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UAE 258 ARE 466 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 315: UAE key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/-/- EODB Rank: 21 (26) - Strong Corruption Rank: 21 (24) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 70 (73) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.2 3.2 -5.2 1.6 6.4 5.1 5.8 3.3 3.8 3.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 25.2 25.1 31.6 27.1 23.4 22.1 19.4 21.1 25.1 25.0 22.1 22.0 22.1 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 947 1,159 931 1,065 1,289 1,377 1,434 1,481 1,315 1,281 1,386 1,512 1,571 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 258 315 254 290 351 375 390 403 358 349 377 412 428 NGDPD
Population (mn) 6.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 LP
GDP per capita ($) 41,472 39,075 30,920 35,076 41,223 42,750 43,233 43,347 37,361 35,384 37,226 39,484 39,802 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 631 937 955 971 1,021 1,054 1,130 1,198 1,294 1,355 1,351 1,365 1,433Lending/GDP (%) 66.7 80.9 102.6 91.2 79.3 76.6 78.8 80.9 98.5 105.8 97.5 90.2 91.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.1 32.2 34.7 31.3 36.0 41.8 38.4 34.6 30.0 26.4 26.8 27.4 27.2 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 11.1 12.3 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 2.3 4.1 1.6 2.0 4.2 2.5 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.3 8.8 0.2 1.7 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 3.6 1.6 2.0 4.2 2.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 17.1 17.6 -6.1 0.6 5.3 9.0 8.4 1.9 -3.4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 17.1 17.7 -6.0 0.9 5.5 9.3 8.8 2.2 -3.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 -0.7 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 7.9 12.5 24.1 21.9 17.4 17.0 15.7 15.5 18.7 20.7 19.5 19.0 19.3 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 119 133 195 120 174 237 266 264 253 187 186 211 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 99 128 177 165 188 212 262 296 300 288 272 279 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) 4.8 18.2 -45.1 -13.8 25.3 3.5 -32.5 -46.9 -101.0 -85.7 -67.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1.9 5.8 -17.8 -4.8 7.2 0.9 -8.3 -11.6 -28.2 -24.6 -17.9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 20.2 22.3 7.8 12.2 44.3 74.0 74.1 54.5 17.6 4.9 17.6 21.8 21.6 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) 7.9 7.1 3.1 4.2 12.6 19.7 19.0 13.5 4.9 1.4 4.7 5.3 5.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 14.2 5.1 1.1 8.8 7.2 8.8 9.5 10.8 11.0 9.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.5 1.6 0.4 3.0 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 13.4 8.7 3.5 7.2 14.7 22.1 21.4 16.2 8.0 4.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 12 47 -38 45 36 12 -1 -4 -26 0 14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 30 38 -7 14 13 24 13 1 -4 -6 3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 77 32 26 33 37 47 68 78 94 85 95 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.9 3.8 4.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 171 190 196 204 203 234 250 286 337 350 325 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 66 60 77 71 58 63 64 71 94 100 86 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 129 98 164 117 86 88 95 113 180 188 154 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 65 67 65 71 78 87 92 92 127 117 119 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 21 26 24 22 23 24 23 35 34 31 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 49 34 54 41 33 33 35 37 68 63 56 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 84 212 249 216 208 185 135 118 135 138 125 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 2.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na 5.9 3.9 1.6 6.7 12.7 9.1 2.2 5.1 5.4 na na over6
Exchange rate (€) annual average 5.03 5.40 5.12 4.87 5.11 4.72 4.88 4.88 4.08 4.06 4.15 4.55 4.61
Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67
Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Uganda 259 UGA 746 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 316: Uganda key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 122 (115) - Middle Corruption Rank: 151 (151) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 19 (19) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.1 10.4 8.1 7.7 6.8 2.2 4.7 4.6 5.7 2.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% GDP) 31.6 28.2 27.1 26.7 28.7 28.4 27.4 25.7 24.8 24.4 25.0 27.6 30.7 NID_NGDP
Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR
Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 23,262 29,727 37,725 44,012 53,249 61,373 66,764 72,660 81,688 86,555 95,159 103,279 113,183 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 13 17 19 20 21 25 26 28 25 25 26 28 30 NGDPD
Population (mn) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.6 37.7 38.8 40.0 LP
GDP per capita ($) 489 605 629 662 669 753 770 811 710 692 699 711 742 NGDPDPC
Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 2,274 3,523 4,119 5,532 7,349 8,199 8,712 9,925 11,436 12,143 12,830 13,728 14,827Lending/GDP (%) 9.8 11.9 10.9 12.6 13.8 13.4 13.0 13.7 14.0 14.0 13.5 13.3 13.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.5 21.1 21.4 18.8 18.8 21.7 20.2 17.9 18.1 21.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.1 12.0 13.0 3.7 15.0 12.7 4.9 3.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 3.6 4.3 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.2 14.2 10.9 1.5 23.7 4.3 5.5 2.1 8.4 5.7 3.3 4.0 4.5 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.1 -2.6 -2.1 -5.7 -2.7 -3.0 -4.0 -4.7 -4.6 -4.9 -3.2 -5.3 -6.5 GGXCNL_NGDP
Primary government balance 0.1 -1.4 -1.1 -4.8 -1.7 -1.7 -2.7 -3.2 -2.9 -2.4 -0.6 -2.6 -3.7 GGXONLB_NGDP
Total public debt (% of GDP) 22.0 20.3 19.2 22.4 23.4 24.6 27.7 30.8 33.5 37.2 39.0 41.5 44.5 GGXWDG_NGDP
External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 na na TXG_FOB_USD
Imports ($bn) 3 3 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 7 na na TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -2.2 -2.8 -2.7 -3.0 -3.5 -3.7 -3.6 -4.1 -3.5 -2.5 -3.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -16.0 -16.2 -14.5 -15.1 -16.4 -15.0 -13.9 -14.6 -14.0 -10.0 -13.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -1.6 -2.1 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -0.9 -1.2 -1.9 -2.8 BCA
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.1 -7.1 -5.6 -8.0 -9.9 -6.8 -7.2 -7.8 -6.7 -3.4 -4.5 -6.9 -9.5 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI ($bn) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.9 4.2 4.5 2.7 4.2 4.9 4.2 3.8 4.2 2.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 -2.9 -1.1 -5.3 -5.7 -1.8 -2.9 -4.0 -2.5 -1.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 39 29 -9 3 33 9 -5 -11 1 15 25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 37 29 -6 10 21 7 -3 4 -9 -13 35 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.8 6.1 8.4 7.0 5.6 6.3 6.9 6.6 6.3 0.0 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 3 3 3 4 9 9 10 10 12 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 11 14 15 15 15 33 32 39 41 45 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 9 6 9 9 7 7 15 16 19 18 16 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 26 26 21 15 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 15 18 na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 11 5 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 6 3 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na 23.0 12.0 11.5 11.0 17.0 12.0 9.5 9.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 22.0 30.8 17.5 38.1 12.4 14.9 9.5 15.2 11.7 11.1 11.9 na na FM3_XDC
Exchange rate (€) annual average 2,363 2,531 2,831 2,889 3,513 3,221 3,436 3,454 3,597 3,786 4,080 4,636 4,780
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1,723 1,720 2,031 2,178 2,523 2,505 2,587 2,600 3,241 3,420 3,612 3,740 3,812
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's - B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B B naFitch B B B B B B B B B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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317Figure 317: Credit ratings UKR Figure 318: Consensus forecasts Figure 321: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 3.0 3.0Moody's Caa2 Aug-17 (Caa3) + CPI (%) 11.3 8.4S&P B- Oct-15 (SD) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -3.6 -3.7Fitch B- Nov-16 (CCC) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.6 -2.5Local currencyMoody's Caa2 Aug-17 (Caa3) + FX vs $, YE 30.0 30.5S&P B- Oct-15 (CCC+) = FX vs EUR, YE 37.8 39.7Fitch B- Nov-16 (CCC) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 319: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps)SovereignUKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/19 661 103.69 7.75 1.2 4.9 223.5 QJ1056937Figure 322: Government bond yields (lcl)UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/20 1,365 104.26 7.75 2.1 5.8 300.4 QJ1135087UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/21 1,409 103.61 7.75 2.9 6.5 368.2 QJ1135525UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/22 1,384 102.49 7.75 3.6 7.1 418.6 QJ1137778UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/23 1,355 101.40 7.75 4.3 7.4 451.7 QJ1143412UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/24 1,339 100.34 7.75 4.9 7.7 475.0 QJ1143438UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/25 1,329 99.95 7.75 5.4 7.8 481.1 QJ1143461UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/26 1,318 99.44 7.75 6.0 7.8 488.3 QJ1143487UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/27 1,307 98.67 7.75 6.5 8.0 498.1 QJ1144246UKRAIN 0 05/31/40 3,214 67.87 0.00 na na na QJ7814024CorporateEXIMUK 9 ⅝ 04/27/22 750 104.75 9.63 1.7 8.2 336.2 UV3117719EXIMUK Float 02/09/23 125 99.41 9.00 0.3 9.6 na UV3120846EXIMUK 9 ¾ 01/22/25 600 105.69 9.75 3.1 8.6 488.0 UV3121018FXPOLN 10 ⅜ 04/07/19 80 103.42 10.38 0.9 6.5 400.0 EK7074991FXPOLN 10 ⅜ 04/07/19 93 103.44 10.38 0.9 6.5 398.8 AF2312748Figure 323: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)METINV 9.3725 12/31/21 117 101.43 7.50 na na na AM4843836MHPSA 8 ¼ 04/02/20 79 108.04 8.25 1.8 3.9 114.5 EJ6060564DTEKUA 10 ¾ 12/31/24 1,344 107.19 10.75 4.5 9.2 na AM0181876OSCHAD 9 ⅜ 03/10/23 700 104.31 9.38 1.6 8.3 294.7 UV7713364OSCHAD 9 ⅝ 03/20/25 500 105.16 9.63 2.7 8.6 452.2 UV7713620RAILUA 9 ⅞ 09/15/21 500 104.96 9.88 1.5 8.2 337.3 JK2673321
Figure 320: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 36 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 39
Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 21% EU 25%China 6% China 10%US 1% US 4%Japan 1% Japan 1% Figure 324: CPI vs policy rateOther key countries Other key countriesRussia 13% Russia 20%Turkey 7% Belarus 7%Egypt 5% Poland 6%Poland 5% Hungary 4%
Product ProductFood items 36% Machinery and transport 27%Other manufactures 33% Other manufactures 21%Iron and steel 24% Other machinery/transport 20%Machinery and transport 13% Chemicals 18%Other machinery/transport 11% Fuels 17%Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Ukraine
1
3
5
7
9
11
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct-1
5
Jan-
16
Apr-1
6
Jul-1
6
Oct-1
6
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Ukraine 2026 $ bond Ukraine 2027 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
4050607080901001105
10152025303540
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
UAH vs $ UAH vs EURUkraine REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Ukraine 2Y yield index Ukraine 4Y yield indexUkraine 10Y yield index
-100
10203040506070
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
Ukraine CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
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Figure 325: Ukraine key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa2/B-/B- EODB Rank: 76 (80) - Middle Corruption Rank: 130 (131) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 20 (20) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.2 2.2 -15.1 0.3 5.5 0.2 0.0 -6.6 -9.8 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.3Investment (% GDP) 27.8 27.4 17.1 20.9 22.4 21.7 18.5 13.4 15.9 21.5 20.8 22.2 24.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) 6.4 6.4 8.8 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 9.3 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.2 8.8Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 751 991 947 1,079 1,300 1,405 1,465 1,587 1,989 2,383 2,908 3,331 3,715Nominal GDP ($bn) 149 188 122 136 163 176 180 132 91 93 109 119 127Population (mn) 46.2 46.0 45.8 45.6 45.5 45.4 45.2 42.8 42.6 42.4 42.3 42.2 42.1GDP per capita ($) 3,220 4,095 2,655 2,983 3,590 3,873 3,969 3,095 2,135 2,199 2,583 2,821 3,007Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 444 755 737 747 822 854 965 1,074 1,043 1,023 1,034 1,086 1,140Lending/GDP (%) 59.1 76.2 77.8 69.2 63.2 60.8 65.8 67.7 52.4 42.9 35.6 32.6 30.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.2 20.6 15.6 18.7 16.2 13.6 9.3 9.5 15.7 17.5 17.2 18.6 20.5PricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.8 25.2 15.9 9.4 8.0 0.6 -0.3 12.1 48.7 13.9 14.4 11.0 8.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 16.6 22.3 12.3 9.1 4.6 -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 13.7 9.0 6.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.9 -3.0 -6.0 -5.8 -2.8 -4.3 -4.8 -4.5 -1.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.7Primary government balance -1.4 -2.5 -4.9 -4.1 -0.8 -2.4 -2.3 -1.2 3.0 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.8Total public debt (% of GDP) 11.8 19.7 34.1 40.6 36.9 37.5 40.5 70.3 79.3 81.2 75.6 78.4 76.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 38 48.9 66.3 39.8 51.4 68.4 68.7 63.3 53.9 38.1 36.3 42.2 na naImports ($bn) 45 60.0 85.4 45.5 60.7 82.6 84.7 77.0 54.4 37.5 39.2 48.2 na naTrade balance ($bn) -11.1 -19.2 -5.6 -9.3 -14.2 -16.0 -13.7 -0.5 0.6 -2.9 -6.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7.5 -10.2 -4.6 -6.8 -8.7 -9.1 -7.6 -0.4 0.7 -3.2 -5.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -5.3 -12.8 -1.7 -3.0 -10.2 -14.3 -16.5 -5.1 -0.3 -3.8 -4.0 -4.4 -4.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -6.8 -1.4 -2.2 -6.3 -8.1 -9.2 -3.9 -0.3 -4.1 -3.7 -3.7 -3.5Net FDI ($bn) 9.9 10.9 4.8 6.5 7.2 8.4 4.5 0.4 3.0 3.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 6.7 5.8 4.0 4.8 4.4 4.8 2.5 0.3 3.3 3.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3.1 -1.0 2.5 2.6 -1.9 -3.4 -6.7 -3.6 3.0 -0.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28.3 35.7 -39.9 29.1 33.0 0.4 -7.8 -14.8 -29.3 -4.8 16.4 na naImports (% YoY, value) 33.5 42.4 -46.8 33.6 36.0 2.5 -9.1 -29.3 -31.0 4.6 22.9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 31.8 30.8 25.6 33.3 30.4 22.7 18.8 6.6 12.4 14.6 17.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.4 4.3 6.7 6.6 4.4 3.2 2.9 1.5 4.0 4.5 4.4 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 80 102 103 117 126 135 142 126 119 114 117 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 54 54 85 86 77 77 79 95 131 122 107 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 164 153 260 228 185 196 224 234 311 313 276 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 20.2 19.5 16.6 21.7 26.7 25.4 29.7 20.3 17.0 16.0 17.1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 13.6 10.3 13.7 15.9 16.4 14.5 16.6 15.3 18.7 17.2 15.7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 41.4 29.4 41.8 42.1 39.1 37.0 47.0 37.6 44.6 44.1 40.6 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 64 63 65 65 88 112 158 306 137 110 97 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 12.0 18.5 23.0 27.0 26.8 29.3 37.8 20.9 28.6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8.1 9.8 18.9 19.8 16.5 16.7 21.1 15.8 31.4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 24.6 27.9 57.7 52.5 39.2 42.7 59.8 38.7 75.0 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 38 60 90 81 88 129 202 315 231 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts
Key policy rate (% YE) na na 10.3 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.5 14.0 22.0 14.0 14.5 17.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 51.7 30.2 -5.5 22.7 14.7 12.8 17.6 5.3 3.9 10.9 9.5 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 6.9 7.7 10.9 10.5 11.1 10.3 10.8 15.9 24.3 28.3 30.1 34.7 36.8
Exchange rate ($) annual average 5.0 5.3 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.2 12.0 21.9 25.6 26.6 28.0 29.3
Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa3 Caa3 Caa3 Caa2 Caa2 naStandard & Poor's BB- B CCC+ B+ B+ B B- CCC- B- B- B- B- naFitch BB- B+ B- B B B B- CCC CCC B- B- B- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Ukraine
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326Figure 326: Credit ratings UZB Figure 327: Consensus forecasts Figure 330: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields
Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's - - - - CPI (%) na naS&P - - - - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - - - - Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's - - - - FX vs $, YE na naS&P - - - - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - - - Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 328: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 331: Government bond yields (lcl)
JV6456919EK6947437
ED7791103QJ1649335EJ1291206
Figure 332: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 329: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 8 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 10
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 18% China 21%Euro area 3% EU 13%US 0% Japan 2%Japan 0% US 1%Other key countries Other key countriesSwitzerland 26% Russia 21% Figure 333: CPI vs policy rateKazakhstan 14% Korea 12%Turkey 10% Kazakhstan 11%Russia 8% Turkey 5%Bangladesh 7% Kyrgyzstan 3%
Product ProductGemstones and non-monetary gold63% Machinery and transport 42%Non-Ferrous Metals 10% Other machinery/transport 37%Food items 9% Other manufactures 17%Chemicals 7% Chemicals 16%Other manufactures 6% Food items 12%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Uzbekistan
60
110
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,000
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18
UZS vs $ UZS vs EURUzbekistan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)
Weaker
Stronger
na
0
5
10
15
20
Dec-0
7Ju
n-08
Dec-0
8Ju
n-09
Dec-0
9Ju
n-10
Dec-1
0Ju
n-11
Dec-1
1Ju
n-12
Dec-1
2Ju
n-13
Dec-1
3Ju
n-14
Dec-1
4Ju
n-15
Dec-1
5Ju
n-16
Dec-1
6Ju
n-17
Dec-1
7Ju
n-18
Dec-1
8
Uzbekistan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %
na
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Figure 334: Uzbekistan key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/- EODB Rank: 74 (87) - Middle Corruption Rank: 157 (156) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 35 (38) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.5 9.0 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 5.3 5.0 5.0Investment (% GDP) 28.2 32.0 29.9 20.5 26.7 31.1 30.3 30.1 26.9 24.9 24.9 29.0 31.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 28 39 49 61 79 98 121 146 172 199 249 315 376Nominal GDP ($bn) 22.3 29.5 33.7 38.6 45.9 51.8 57.7 63.1 66.5 66.7 47.9 40.3 47.9Population (mn) 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.2 29.8 30.2 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.1 32.5 32.9GDP per capita ($) 837 1,093 1,231 1,393 1,631 1,741 1,908 2,052 2,124 2,094 1,491 1,238 1,455Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naLending/GDP (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 37.3 40.5 33.3 27.6 32.4 32.2 33.1 31.8 27.6 25.7 28.6 29.2 29.9PricesCPI (average % YoY) 11.2 13.1 12.3 12.3 12.4 11.9 11.7 9.1 8.5 8.0 12.5 19.5 12.9CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.9 13.8 12.4 11.9 13.6 10.8 10.8 9.2 8.4 7.9 18.9 16.9 10.1Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 4.5 7.3 2.3 3.3 7.4 8.1 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.4 -1.7 0.8 1.3Primary government balance 4.6 7.4 2.3 3.3 7.5 8.1 2.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 -1.7 0.8 1.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 15.8 12.3 10.9 10.0 10.0 10.6 11.2 10.9 9.2 10.5 24.5 20.1 20.6External indicatorsExports ($bn) 5 6.5 7.8 5.7 6.7 6.5 5.9 7.9 7.0 6.5 7.7 9.0 na naImports ($bn) 4 6.7 9.7 8.6 8.7 10.2 11.4 13.3 13.9 10.8 10.1 12.4 na naTrade balance ($bn) -0.2 -1.9 -3.0 -2.0 -3.8 -5.5 -5.4 -7.0 -4.4 -2.4 -3.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -6.5 -8.9 -5.2 -8.2 -10.7 -9.4 -11.0 -6.6 -3.6 -7.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2.0 2.5 1.1 2.7 2.6 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.1 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) 9.1 8.4 3.3 7.1 5.7 1.2 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.7 3.7 0.2 -1.1Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.2 2.4 2.5 4.2 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 12.3 10.8 5.8 11.3 9.3 2.2 3.9 2.7 2.3 0.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 20 21 -28 19 -4 -9 35 -12 -7 19 17 na naImports (% YoY, value) 55 45 -11 1 17 11 17 5 -22 -7 23 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 12 12 12 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 12 14 14 11 10 10 11 18 18 24 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 48 46 82 80 75 88 72 95 186 157 129 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 5 5 7 5 11 15 9 11 17 14 18 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 11 15 9 10 12 9 13 20 18 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 14.0 14.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,732 1,941 2,044 2,104 2,387 2,430 2,783 3,070 2,868 3,300 5,878 9,689 9,842
Exchange rate ($) annual average 1,264 1,320 1,466 1,586 1,714 1,890 2,095 2,311 2,584 2,982 5,203 7,815 7,849
Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
Uzbekistan
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Vietnam 261 VNM 582 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 335: Vietnam key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 68 (82) - Middle Corruption Rank: 107 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 29 (27) - Weak
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.1 5.7 5.4 6.4 6.2 5.2 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 6.6 6.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 39.6 36.5 37.2 35.7 29.8 27.2 26.7 26.8 27.6 26.6 26.6 27.8 28.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.5 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 1,247 1,616 1,809 2,158 2,780 3,245 3,584 3,938 4,193 4,503 5,008 5,499 6,130 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 78 98 102 113 135 156 171 186 191 201 220 241 265 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 84.2 85.1 86.0 86.9 87.8 88.8 89.8 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.6 94.6 95.5 LPGDP per capita ($) 920 1,154 1,181 1,297 1,532 1,752 1,900 2,049 2,088 2,172 2,354 2,546 2,774 NGDPDPCStock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1,068 1,339 1,869 2,476 2,830 3,078 3,470 3,950 4,693 5,575 6,579 7,631 8,776Lending/GDP (%) 85.6 82.9 103.3 114.7 101.8 94.8 96.8 100.3 111.9 123.8 131.4 138.8 143.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 30.5 25.5 30.7 31.9 29.9 33.2 31.2 31.7 27.5 29.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.4 23.1 6.7 9.2 18.7 9.1 6.6 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 12.6 19.9 6.5 11.7 18.1 6.8 6.0 1.8 0.6 4.7 2.6 4.0 4.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.0 -0.5 -6.0 -2.8 -1.1 -6.9 -7.4 -6.3 -6.2 -6.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.0 0.5 -4.9 -1.6 -0.1 -5.6 -5.9 -4.6 -4.3 -4.3 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 40.9 39.4 45.2 48.1 44.6 48.4 51.8 55.0 57.0 59.8 58.2 58.4 58.1 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 40 49 63 58 70 93 111 129 146 160 176 212 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 45 63 81 70 83 104 112 129 145 176 185 221 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -14.1 -17.9 -12.4 -13.1 -11.0 -0.4 -0.5 1.1 -15.8 -9.7 -9.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -18.2 -18.2 -12.2 -11.6 -8.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 -8.2 -4.8 -4.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -7.0 -10.8 -6.6 -4.3 0.2 9.3 7.7 9.1 -0.1 6.1 9.1 7.3 6.3 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -9.0 -11.0 -6.5 -3.8 0.2 6.0 4.5 4.9 -0.1 3.1 4.1 3.0 2.4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 7.0 9.6 7.6 8.0 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.2 11.8 12.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 9.0 9.7 7.5 7.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 6.2 6.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.0 -1.2 1.0 3.3 5.8 11.3 9.8 9.8 6.1 9.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 29 -8 22 33 19 16 13 10 10 21 na naImports (% YoY, value) 40 29 -13 19 25 7 16 12 21 5 19 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 23 24 16 12 14 26 26 34 28 37 49 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.5 3.6 2.8 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.8 1.9 2.4 2.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 33 38 54 67 76 85 95 98 112 98 86 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 43 39 53 59 56 55 56 53 58 49 39 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 69 61 93 95 81 76 74 67 70 56 40 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 8 9 12 17 19 19 21 21 23 27 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 8 9 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 16 13 16 17 18 17 15 14 13 13 13 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 33 33 54 94 124 76 74 61 73 62 56 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 2 4 5 5 7 7 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 5 6 9 15 31 18 17 20 23 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF ForecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na 9.0 15.0 9.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 46.1 20.3 29.0 33.3 12.1 34.9 4.4 17.7 16.2 18.4 15.0 na na over7Exchange rate (€) annual average 22,048 24,194 24,829 25,385 28,761 26,829 27,916 28,143 24,314 24,759 25,674 28,316 29,012Exchange rate ($) annual average 16,083 16,445 17,801 19,135 20,653 20,862 21,014 21,183 21,900 22,367 22,721 22,840 23,137Credit rating history Latest
Moody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B1 B2 B2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg
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Current Date Prior Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.4 4.8Moody's B3 Apr-16 (B2) = CPI (%) 7.0 7.4S&P B Jul-15 (B+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -2.0 -1.8Fitch B Oct-13 (B+) – Fiscal bal (%GDP) -6.3 -5.2Local currencyMoody's B3 Apr-16 (B2) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B Jul-15 (B+) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Oct-13 (B+) – Note: Bloomberg Consensus
Figure 338: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.
Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 341: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$ZAMBIN 5 ⅜ 09/20/22 750 92.89 5.38 3.8 7.3 441.1 EJ3648502ZAMBIN 8 ½ 04/14/24 1,000 102.00 8.50 4.6 8.1 515.4 EK1696666ZAMBIN 8.97 07/30/27 1,250 101.65 8.97 5.6 8.7 572.7 UV3543443
Figure 342: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Figure 339: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 7 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 7
Geographic share Geographic shareChina 26% China 8%Euro area 6% EU 4%US 1% US 1%Japan 1% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesDR Congo 13% South Africa 32% Figure 343: CPI vs policy rateIndia 6% DR Congo 19%Korea 5% Kenya 10%UAE 4% India 5%Zimbabwe 3% UAE 4%
Product ProductNon-Ferrous Metals 69% Machinery and transport 31%Food items 11% Other machinery/transport 25%Other manufactures 5% Other manufactures 17%Gemstones and non-monetary gold4% Chemicals 15%Beverages and Tobacco 4% Fuels 15%
Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD
Zambia
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Zambia 2027 $ bond Zambia 2024 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM
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Figure 344: Zambia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 85 (98) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (87) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 24 (20) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 6.2 5.7 6.4 7.6 6.8 7.6 5.1 5.0 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0Investment (% of GDP) 31.7 29.6 30.3 29.9 33.6 31.8 34.0 34.0 42.8 41.7 41.9 43.0 42.0Nominal GDP (ZMWbn) 56 67 77 97 115 131 151 167 183 217 243 281 318Nominal GDP (€bn) 10.3 12.2 11.0 15.3 17.1 19.9 21.1 20.6 19.2 19.1 23.2 23.7 25.2Nominal GDP ($bn) 14.1 17.9 15.3 20.3 23.8 25.5 28.1 27.1 21.2 21.0 25.9 28.5 31.2Copper price, $/t, YE 7,222 7,245 5,314 7,538 8,824 7,971 7,328 6,861 5,512 4,867 6,170 7,000 7,000Population (mn) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3GDP per capita ($) 1,143 1,418 1,185 1,528 1,749 1,727 1,842 1,724 1,307 1,257 1,501 1,603 1,702Gross national saving (% of GDP) 30.5 26.3 36.2 37.4 38.3 37.1 33.4 36.1 38.9 37.3 38.3 40.8 41.2Bank credit to private sector (lcl bn) 5.8 8.4 8.0 9.0 10.8 15.0 16.9 19.1 23.1 20.8 20.8 22.2 24.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 10.4 12.5 10.3 9.3 9.3 11.4 11.1 11.4 12.6 9.6 8.5 7.9 7.7Loan to deposit ratio 77.5 73.9 66.1 61.2 69.9 64.9 72.6 71.0 70.0 70.5 71.0 71.0PricesCPI (average %YoY) 10.7 12.4 13.4 8.5 8.8 6.6 7.0 7.8 10.1 16.4 6.6 7.4 8.5CPI (end-year %YoY) 8.9 16.6 9.9 7.9 9.9 7.3 7.1 7.9 21.1 7.5 6.5 9.0 8.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance -1.0 -0.7 -2.0 -2.4 -1.7 -2.8 -6.2 -5.9 -9.3 -5.8 -7.3 -7.8 -7.4Total public debt 21.4 18.8 19.7 18.9 20.8 25.4 27.1 36.1 62.3 60.7 62.2 65.5 68.0External balanceExports ($bn) 4.6 5.0 4.4 7.5 8.8 9.5 10.8 10.2 7.4 6.5 8.2 9.0 10.0Imports ($bn) 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.7 6.5 7.9 9.2 8.6 7.4 6.5 7.9 8.5 9.5Trade balance ($bn) 0.9 0.5 1.0 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5Trade balance (% of GDP) 6.7 2.6 6.3 13.7 9.7 6.2 5.9 6.0 -0.4 -0.1 1.4 1.8 1.6Current account balance ($bn) 2.1 1.6 0.9 3.4 2.3 0.5 1.1 0.5 -1.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) 14.6 8.8 6.1 16.7 9.8 1.9 3.8 1.7 -6.4 -4.6 -2.9 -2.4 -1.7Net FDI ($bn) 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 2.4 1.7 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3Net FDI (% of GDP) 9.4 5.2 6.3 3.5 3.7 9.5 6.0 9.2 7.8 8.6 7.7 7.7 7.4Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 24.0 14.0 12.4 20.2 13.6 11.4 9.8 10.8 1.4 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.7Exports (%YoY, value) 14 10 -13 71 17 9 14 -6 -28 -12 26 10 11Imports (%YoY, value) 37 26 -25 38 37 23 16 -7 -13 -12 20 8 12Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5Import cover (months of imports) 3.6 2.9 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.6 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.2 3.4 3.2Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 9 10 10Gross external debt (% of GDP) 8 9 10 16 16 17 20 24 32 35 35 35 32Gross external debt (% of exports) 24 34 35 45 44 46 52 63 93 113 111 110 100Total debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 0 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Total debt service (% of exports) 1 2 11 4 2 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 6Interest & exchange ratesPolicy rate, %YE 9.3 9.8 12.5 15.5 15.5 10.3 11.0 10.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 26.6 21.8 8.0 30.8 21.6 23.1 12.8 12.6 22.1 -8.0 -2.0 6.0 9.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 47.0 43.8 -5.2 13.3 29.4 39.2 14.2 13.1 21.0 -10.0 0.0 7.0 10.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 11.5 13.9 5.1 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.0 13.0 15.0 14.0 9.0 8.5 8.03-month interest rate spread over $-Libor (ppt) 5.5 11.1 4.5 5.5 6.0 7.3 7.5 12.4 14.2 12.6 7.3 6.4 8.05Y yield (% YE) 15.7 19.0 17.1 13.0 15.4 13.5 16.5 18.7 25.0 21.0 17.0 16.0 16.0Exchange rate (ZMK/EUR) year-end 5.6 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.6 7.7 11.9 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.0Exchange rate (ZMK/EUR) annual average 5.5 5.5 7.0 6.4 6.8 6.6 7.2 8.1 9.5 11.3 10.5 11.9 12.6Exchange rate (ZMK/$) year-end 3.9 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5 6.4 11.0 9.9 9.7 10.1 10.4Exchange rate (ZMK/$) annual average 4.0 3.7 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.4 6.2 8.7 10.3 9.4 9.9 10.2Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B2 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B naFitch - - - - B+ B+ B B B B B B na
Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Zambia, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates
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Zimbabwe 263 ZWE 698 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 345: Zimbabwe key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/- EODB Rank: 159 (161) - Weak Corruption Rank: 157 (154) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 7 (7) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -3.4 -16.3 7.4 15.4 16.3 13.6 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.7 2.8 2.0 2.3 NGDP_RPCH
Investment (% of GDP) n/a n/a 14.7 22.4 20.3 12.0 11.5 11.9 12.6 15.5 14.0 13.7 13.4 NID_NGDP
Gold price, $/oz 637 834 882 1,097 1,421 1,564 1,675 1,202 1,184 1,061 1,280 1,300 1,312 LUR
Platinum price, $/t 1,526 934 1,463 1,770 1,395 1,540 1,371 1,208 892 903 940 1,000 1,143 NGDP
Nominal GDP ($bn) 7.0 6.0 8.4 10.1 12.1 14.1 15.2 15.8 16.1 16.1 17.5 19.4 21.1 NGDPD
Population (mn) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 LP
GDP per capita ($) 581 493 684 816 969 1,076 1,134 1,149 1,137 1,112 1,150 1,239 1,316 NGDPDPC
Gross national saving (% of GDP) n/a n/a 5.6 21.2 22.0 6.5 5.6 7.2 8.0 19.1 24.8 23.6 23.1Stock of bank credit to corporate/household sector ($bn) 2.7 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.5Stock of bank credit to corporate/household sector (% of GDP) 22.3 24.8 23.7 24.1 23.6 21.7 NGSD_NGDP
PricesCPI (average % YoY) n/a n/a 6.2 3.0 3.5 3.7 1.6 -0.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.3 5.2 6.3 PCPIPCH
CPI (year-end % YoY) n/a n/a -7.7 3.2 4.9 2.9 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -0.9 3.5 7.9 4.9 PCPIEPCH
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance -2.9 -2.0 -2.0 0.7 -0.5 0.0 -1.7 -1.4 -1.0 -8.4 -9.6 -3.1 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP
Total public debt 49.7 68.6 51.4 59.3 41.6 38.8 48.3 49.6 51.9 69.7 75.0 76.0 74.0 GGXONLB_NGDP
External balance GGXWDG_NGDP
Exports ($bn) 1.7 1.7 1.6 3.2 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2Imports ($bn) 1.9 2.6 3.2 5.2 7.6 6.7 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.2 TXG_FOB_USD
Trade balance ($bn) -0.2 -0.9 -1.6 -2.0 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 -2.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.9 -1.0 TMG_CIF_USD
Trade balance (% of GDP)Current account balance ($bn) -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -2.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.3 -16.8 -13.7 -12.5 -20.1 -12.9 -15.6 -15.1 -9.3 -4.1 -3.6 -0.8 -0.4 BCA
Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 BCA_NGDPD
Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.5 1.9 0.6Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -10.1 -13.0 -11.9 -6.8 -2.2 -3.0Exports (% YoY, value) -1 -3 -3 101 36 -14 -3 -4 2 2 3 5 5Imports (% YoY, value) -2 36 22 61 47 -11 2 -7 -4 -14 2 -4 2Foreign exchange reserves (ex. gold, $bn) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Import cover (months of imports) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 11Gross external debt (% of GDP) 63 78 73 65 61 53 59 68 66 68Gross external debt (% of exports) 259 276 381 206 168 197 241 300 297 297Interest & exchange ratesCredit to the private sector (% YoY) 30.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 -8.0 10.0Exchange rate (ZAR/EUR) year-end 6.8 9.5 7.4 6.6 8.1 8.4 10.5 14.0 17.1 14.4 14.0 14.5 14.0Exchange rate (ZAR/EUR) annual average 7.0 8.2 8.3 7.3 7.2 8.2 9.7 14.3 14.4 16.1 14.2 14.3 14.2Exchange rate (ZAR/$) year-end 9.9 13.3 10.6 8.9 10.5 11.1 14.5 11.6 15.5 13.7 12.4 12.1 12.5Exchange rate (ZAR/$) annual average 9.6 12.1 11.6 9.7 10.1 10.5 12.8 10.9 12.9 14.6 13.3 12.2 12.3Credit rating historyMoody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are RenCap forecasts
Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg #N/A
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