From Models to Decisions Amir Hakami Carleton University
Dec 24, 2015
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Where do models fit?
• Emissions are the only variable we can control.– Use models to provide Policymakers with tangible “decision metrics”.
Emissions
MeteorologyPollution
Health Outcome
Transport and Transformation
Exposure
Health Influences
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Improving air quality
• Reducing emissions is costly.
• Assessing the benefits of emission reductions in terms that are comparable with costs (i.e., monetized) enhances the decision-making process.
• What is the cost of action vs. inaction?
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Benefit from one average vehicle
• Value for Toronto and coastal California: $400-$800/yr• Estimated benefit from the Toronto subway: $130,000,000/yr
NB: A fraction of benefits (non-fatal, long-term, or PM effects not included)Pappin and Hakami, 2013
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Health benefits: marginal benefit/damage
Mobile sources Point sources
• What the numbers mean?• Marginal benefits are key decision parameters.
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Health benefits are substantial
Abatement costs Health damage
Marginal benefits and costs of NOx emission reductions from power plants in the US.
Mesbah et al., 2013
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Bonus: increasing benefits with controls!
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 010000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Point and mobile sources emission reduction (fractional)
Mobile Sources
Point Sources
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Next steps for air quality scientists
• Facilitate integrated assessment.– Enhance our communication skills with
other disciplines.
• Quantify/reduce various uncertainties in our understanding of processes that affect air quality.– Uncertainty is not a justified reason for
inaction.
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Next steps for air quality scientists - II
McRae and Cass (1981)Air quality model
Dec
isio
n m
odel
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Next steps for air quality scientists - III
Air quality model
Dec
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odel
For Life and Breath May 1, 2014
Comments/questions
Thank you!
Funding provided by NSERC, CIHR, Environment Canada, Health Canada