From Ego to Eco: the future of the music business (Futurist, Author and Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard)

Gerd LeonhardFuturist, Author, Musician

& CEOTheFuturesAgency

From Ego to Eco:

The Future of Music

@gleonhard@music2dot0

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Tweet your questions @gleonhard

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The music business is a lot

like the energy business :(

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

...and artists are starting to feel like this

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

We’ve had EGOsystems ...for way too long

The

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already h

ere!

Piracy de!ned as any act of non-compliancewith policies, pricing,

restrictions, rules and technology :)

....whose economic losses...?

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Do the big Oil Companies

represent Nature?

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little

temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” *Benjamin Franklin

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Music EgoSystems are

utterly unsustainable:Rampant inequality

Total lack of transparency

Cartels & monopolies prevail

Laws & policies paid for by lobbyists

Enclosure of the Commons

Criminalization of Consumers

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

The

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ere!

Piracy ★ is the result of the 1% trying to enforce

outdated business models

★ an aberration of radical consumer empowerment based on ever-faster networks and cheap but smart devices

★ consequence of market failure paired with pervasive ignorance and blind control obsession by most incumbents

CEO of MacMillan UK, April 2011, via PaidContent.org

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Restricting, protecting, preventing,

disabling ... is a suicidal strategy

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Control consumption?

Make content unavailable?

Enforce payment?

Restrict sharing?

Create arti!cial scarcity?

Sue fans into submission?

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Music is just about to migrate into a larger turf...

Mobile & Social

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! First: rede!ne the meaning of Selling

- in the future, what will it mean to ‘sell music’?

The

futu

re is

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ere!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Every screen is becoming some kind of ‘connected TV or Radio’

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! A huge opportunity for bundling

music and then offer premiums

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

By 2017, between 50% to 75% + of all media consumption will be via mobile devices *

The

futu

re is

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ere!

Welcome to the

SoLoMo-Cloud

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The end of Distribution as the key

success factor, metric and gate-keeper

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Total Unbundling is inevitable

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! With some exceptions, the business model of

merely selling ‘copies’ of music is

Music .Toast Music. Future

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

From one-to-many toMany to Many

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! ‘Free’ Access / Listen / Streaming / Downloading

of music has become a de-facto standard and

Common Right

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Guess where we are headed...

The

futu

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already h

ere!

Touch. Play. Connect. Share.Access not ownership *

The

futu

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ere!

Access *not ownership

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Does ‘access not own‘ worry you?

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The issue: for the consumer, access to content

will be much cheaper than copies i.e. ownership

Source: Huf!ngton Post

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! But let’s do the math:

Access for everyone is better!• Average advertising value of every active Internet

user is approx. € 42• Average cost of customer acquisition for mobile

operators is € 100 each (global estimated average)• € 2 per month raised per EU Internet user (i.e. approx.

500 Million) would result in approx. 1 Billion per month i.e. € 12.2 Billion per year

• Which represents almost 100 % of the current worldwide revenues for music

• The € 2 / month / user could be generated via advertising, data-mining, #at-rates, bundles, subsidies, taxes - or even directly from the users:)

• Note: and this would just be the beginning!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! 2017: 5 Billion people, 75% mobile Internet,

50+ major platforms, a €250 Billion ad market

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Up-Selling

Premium-Services

New Generatives

Added Values

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Build income streams around the Music.

Invent added values, pursue collaborative business models

Fluid + Feels-Like-Free + Freemium | Upselling

+

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

* Thanks to Kevin Kelly kk.org

Packaging and Interfaces Curation, Filtering and Selection

Social Context & Relevance Intelligent Aggregation

Assisted Serendipity Timeliness and Personal Relevance

Quality and Trust Guarantee Customization and Personalization

Localization / Contextualization Cloud-to-Device Management

Advertising as Content (Branded Content) Gami!cation

... and many more

The New Generatives *Kevin Kelly

The

futu

re is

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ere! New Generatives *Kevin Kelly

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! New Generatives *Kevin Kelly

The

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ere!

The problem is not the ‘pay’ -

it’s the wall!

Source:

☹☺

The

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re is

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ere!

Other ways to get paid...

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

We are already..

Paying with our Data

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Is there $ in advertising-supported music?

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Big Data will fund ‘Big Content’

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Ease of use + Choice + Price +

Added Values + Brand = $£€

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

It’s about Value & Experiences not just Price!

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Imagine if 3 Billion people switched to legal streaming

*clearly, this will never happen without a collective, standardized, public, EU-wide license

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! Urgent: Copy Public Rights that !t our

Digital Ecosystem

The

futu

re is

already h

ere! The ‘free markets’ won’t !x this.

We need must-license provisions, public oversight, regulation for the common good.

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Hyper-Collaboration

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!Creators & Artists: we must embrace change and

focus on solutions based on Collective Objectives

The

futu

re is

already h

ere!

Take back the Music!Business

CultureInnovation

The

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ere!

The

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already h

ere!

C R E A T I V E

D E S I G N :

ThankYou!