Frankovic, Kathleen; “The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”

“The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”

Kathleen A. FrankovicEvaluating the George W. Bush Presidency

UH-Hilo July 29-31, 2009

http://uhhconferencecenter.com/




OVERVIEW• Presentation will examine:

– Polarization between parties and partisans in the 21st century

– Changes in the structure of opinion and voting

• The major questions: 1) whether these changes are directly attributable to the Bush Presidency or are part of longer-term developments in American society, and 2) whether they continue

WHY EXPECT POLARIZATION?We often assume there has been

polarization in the last decade, whether elite or general public– Changes in media environment: 24-hour news

cycles, assumption that news outlets are not objective, point-counterpoint debate

– Accusations of bias in the media comes from both sides (though in the last 20 years mostly from the right)

– The 2004 electoral strategies

MOMENTS OF INCREASED PARTISANSHIP

• 1990’s: Thomas nomination, Clinton impeachment, rise of talk radio

• Disputed 2000 election

• Development of more sophisticated partisan spin apparatus

• 2004 election focus on mobilizing the “base”

MEASURES OF POLARIZATION

• During the Bush Presidency, polls increasingly came under attack– Polls have always been attacked by those

who disagree but…– The criticism increased during the 1998

Clinton impeachment – It may even have been exacerbated by exit

poll concerns and criticisms in the 2000 and 2004 elections

Partisan Criticism: NOT NEW

“The whole scheme is one of fraud and debauchery, and may be taken as the first step to do away with popular elections under the law, and place the molding of public opinion in the hands of millionaires and corporations.”

-- Chicago Democratic Party, 1896

PARTISAN POLARIZATION IS MAINLY ABOUT LEARNING

• Americans have learned how they are supposed to respond in elections and to pollsters

• They have also learned how to respond to information that challenges their expectations

• The media environment encourages rapid response as the 24-hour news cycle requires point-counterpoint behavior and political figures supply it

DID THE BUSH PRESIDENCY INCREASE

POLARIZATION?

IS POLARIZATION STILL INCREASING?

Polarization: PARTISANSHIP IN ELECTIONS

17

23

18

24

27

32

31

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

NUMBER OF STATES

Number of States Outperforming Either Party’s National Average by More than 5 Points

1984 17

2008 31

Evidence: CHANGES IN PARTY-LINE VOTING 1992-2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Republicans Democrats

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

WITHIN-PARTY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VOTE FOR OWN PARTY AND OPPOSING PARTY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES (CBS NEWS Exit Polls)

PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING: 3-CANDIDATE RACE 1992

0102030405060708090

100


Clinton

Bush

Perot

Difference = 63 Difference = 67REP-DEM % DEM–REP %

REPERCENTAGING WITHOUT PEROT, POLARIZATION STILL REMAINS BELOW LEVEL IN LATER ELECTIONS

PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING:2-CANDIDATE RACE 2004

0102030405060708090

100


Kerry

Bush

Difference = 87 Difference = 78REP%-DEM % DEM%–REP %

PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING:2-CANDIDATE RACE 2008

0102030405060708090

100


Obama

McCain

Difference = 79 Difference = 81REP%-DEM % DEM%–REP %

Polarization: APPROVAL

SOURCE: Pew Research Center


25

25

46

38

45

51

61

NIXON

CARTER

REAGAN

BUSH

CLINTON

BUSH

OBAMA

BETWEEN-PARTY PERCENTAGEDIFFERENCES EARLY IN ADMINISTRATIONS

Polarization: PARTISANS LEARNED WHAT TO SAY IN POLLS

6/92 GHW Bush 34% APPROVAL RATING

Republicans 55%

Democrats 18%

REP-DEM APPROVAL: 37 pts.3/06 GW Bush 34% APPROVAL RATING

Republicans 74%

Democrats 6%

REP-DEM APPROVAL: 68 pts.CBS News/NY Times Polls

OPINION STRUCTURE: Party and Ideology

HAS PARTISAN DISTRIBUTION CHANGED? Republican Democrat

1/2001 23% 35 +121/2005 31% 34 + 312/2005 28% 32 + 41/2007 25% 36 +114/2009 21% 38 +177/2009 23% 35 +12

CBS News/NY Times Polls


HAVE PARTISANS BECOME MORE IDEOLOGICAL?

REPUBLICANS: LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE1/2001 13% 47 +341/2005 5% 59 +5412/2005 5% 60 +551/2007 6% 53 +474/2009 9% 51 +427/2009 7% 53 +45



HAVE PARTISANS BECOME MORE IDEOLOGICAL?

DEMOCRATS: LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE1/2001 31% 22 - 91/2005 34% 19 -1512/2005 31% 16 -151/2007 40% 17 -234/2009 40% 16 -247/2009 32% 19 -13



IDEOLOGICAL CONSISTENCY ROSE WITH INCREASING NUMBERS

• Republicans became more ideological in the Bush first term (post-9/11)

• Democrats became more ideological as they increased in numbers in the second Bush Administration (post-Schiavo and post-Katrina)

PERCEPTIONS OF POLARIZATION

PARTY RATINGS

NOT FAVORABLE – FAVORABLE

6/2001 6/2009Republicans’ Views

of Democrats 40 56

Democrats’ Views of Republicans 57 77


PERCEPTIONS OF POLARIZATION

DO MEMBERS OF THE OTHER PARTY SHARE YOUR NON-POLITICAL VALUES?

Yes NoRepublicans on Democrats

7/2005 56% 40

3/2007 43% 53Democrats on Republicans

7/2005 47% 493/2007 46% 51


SOURCES OF POLARIZATION

WHEN DID THE CHANGES EMERGE?• The Clinton impeachment brought some

polarization, though there was less division in traditionally non-political areas

HOW DO THE CHANGES DEVELOP?• New areas of partisanship – beyond

traditional areas of party differences (economics, social issues) -- as public learns the expected poll responses


PARTISANSHIP CONTINUES EVEN IN HISTORICALLY LESS PARTISAN AREAS

FOREIGN POLICY APPROVAL

TOTAL REP. DEM

Clinton 5/99 55% 41% 79% +38

Bush 6/01 47% 73% 28% -45

Bush 1/05 42% 78% 15% -63

Obama 6/09 53% 26% 78% -52


Polarization: OTHER ISSUES

Was U.S. military action against Iraq the right thing to do?

1991 2003 2006

Total YES 70% 69% 41%

Republicans 84% 87% 71%

Democrats 59% 50% 20%

PARTY DIFFERENCE 25 37 51


Polarization: NATIONAL SECURITY

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE WITH GUANTANAMO?

6/09 Rep Dem

Continue to operate 60% 29%

Close 26 60


Polarization: JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS

SHOULD THOMAS BE CONFIRMED?

Yes No Not Sure

Before Hearings

Republicans 32% 6 58

Democrats 19% 14 61

After Hearings

Republicans 77% 18 6

Democrats 46 42 11CBS News/NY Times Polls

Polarization: JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS

SHOULD … BE CONFIRMED? First Impressions

Yes No Not SureRoberts (8/05)

Republicans 46% 4 46 Democrats 13% 16 67

Sotomayor (6/09) Republicans 17% 22 56 Democrats 56% 2 40


TODAY’S ENVIRONMENT

• Americans have learned what they are supposed to believe

• While party distribution has changed little, party divisions have increased

• Partisan polarization is high, giving rise to the notion of a culture war and reaffirming the prevalence of the Red State/Blue State concept

• Other divisions reinforce party differences: religion and religiosity, race, urbanity

• Consequently, when partisans are on the same side it becomes news

THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL ATTACKS ON POLLS

• The political nature of the attacks reduces belief in polls’ “precision”

• Attacks are magnified by the “echo chamber” of news shows and internet blogs -- from BOTH sides – and matter more in intense campaigns with polarization between the parties

• BUT… EVEN PARTISAN ATTACKERS OFTEN RAISE IMPORTANT METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS: WEIGHTING, QUESTION WORDING, INTERVIEWER BIAS

THE IMPACT OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY

• Overall, there has been little change in either party distribution or ideological composition

• Some items continue to show long-term partisan divisions, while others suggest easing of party differences

• Partisans are now educated on their expected reactions on nearly all subjects

THE IMPACT OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY

• Increased polarization and partisan attacks increase the scrutiny of polls – probably a good thing, even when the criticism is unfair or wrong.

• So…the long-term effect of the Bush Presidency on public opinion may not be known for a while

“The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”

Kathleen A. FrankovicEvaluating the George W. Bush Presidency

UH-Hilo July 29-31, 2009





Frankovic, Kathleen; “The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”

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