Realignments The Ultimate Change in Partisanship.

Realignments

The Ultimate Change in Partisanship

Two-Party System in

American History

We often Switch Party Loyalty

• Congressional Elections

• Weaker partisan ties

• Poor challengers

• These can result in a landslide for one party

REALIGNMENTSHow To Wreck a Party

How to Wreck a Movie

• First, how to wreck a movie

• Strange Brew 1983

What is a Realignment

• A Durable shift in voting Patterns

• The New Party Kills the Old

• Majority Parties become minorities

Who Switches in a Realignment

• Hard Cores do not switch

• Independents do

• New Voters

• Weak partisans become strong Partisans

What Causes a Realignment

• Economic or social crisis

• Failure of the party to interpret change

• A changed electorate

The Policy Implications

• A mandate for change

• Major New Policies

• Continued success

Options for the Losers

• Ignore the issue

• Try to absorb it

• Change

A THEORY OF CRITICAL ELECTIONSGood Times

Kinds of Realignments

• Secular Realignments- happen over time

• Regional Realignments

• Critical Elections

Maintaining Deviating

Converting Realigning

same

change

VICTORY Defeat

Types of Election

Majority Party

A Realigning Election

• The Actual Critical Election– 1860– 1896– 1930

• High Intensity

• High Turnout

A Maintaining Election

• A boring election

• The party in power remains in power

• 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

Deviating Election

• The Out party does well

• No shift in long term partisanship

• Caused by short-term factors

• 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

Converting Election

• The out party is gaining seats

• The precursor to a realignment

• The majority party keeps control.

THE LAST REALIGNMENTThe New Deal

The New Deal Realignment

• The GOP was the majority party from 1896-1932

• The Democrats Replaced the GOP and kept effective power from 1932-1968

How FDR Did it

• Kept the South

• Inroads into the North

• Urban Party– Catholics– Poor– Unions

Policy differences

• Focused on Domestic Economic Issues

• Expansion of Government

• Clear Policy differences between the parties

• The GOP could not adopt this message or expand its base

The End of the New Deal

• Problems are solved

• New Issues Emerge

• The Electorate Changes

How it Happens• New Deal Democrats Die

• Catholics become assimilated economically

• New voters are less partisan

• Conflict between working class and African Americans

THE CASE OF THE SOUTHThe real end of the new deal realignment

The South in historical context

• Solidly Democratic from 1870- 1968

• The key to Democratic strength because of opportunity costs

• The shift of the South to the GOP marks the end of the New Deal Realignment

How the South Shifted• First in Presidential

elections (1948, 1964, 1968)

• Then State-wide offices

• Southern Democrats Die and are replaced by Republicans

Why the South Shifted

• Race

• Economics

• Demographics

THE CURRENT PARTY ALIGNMENT

The Parties have been Competitive

Republicans• President- 72, 80, 84, 88

2000, 2004 (24 years)

• Senate- 1981-1986, 1995-2006 (18 years)

• House- 1995-2006, 2011-2013- 14 years

Democrats• President- 76, 92, 96, 2008

(16 years)

• Senate- 1973-1980, 1989-1994, 2007-2013 (20 years)

• House- 1972-1994, 2007-2010 (26 years)

Dealignment

• A weakening of partisan ties

• Partisans, however, have become more extreme (as has congress)

• A new realignment would require the conversion of independents