Frances Seymour CIFOR

Frances Seymour

European Parliament

March 1, 2011

The role of Europe in fighting deforestation:

Balancing the risks of action against the risks of

no action

Presentation outline

� Brief introduction to CIFOR

� Review of deforestation trends

� Reasons for optimism / reasons for

caution

� A few examples

� Implications for the way forward

� Note that the closer you get to the ground, the more complicated it gets….

Brief introduction to CIFOR

CIFOR…• Is an international organization headquartered in Bogor, Indonesia

• Is a member of the CGIAR

• Has as its purpose to conduct research to inform policies and practices

that affect forests in developing countries

• Has a staff of about 200 globally

• Has an annual budget of about $27 million

• Is grateful to the European Commission for significant funding

CIFOR’s research domains

Sustainably managing tropical production forests6

CIFOR’s vision

We envision a world where:

� Forests are high on the political

agenda

� People recognize the value of forests

for maintaining livelihoods and

ecosystems

� Decisions that influence forests and

the people that depend on them are

based on solid science and principles

of good governance, and reflect the

perspectives of developing countries

and forest-dependent people

Review of deforestation trends

Net change in forest area 2005-2010(in ha per year)

Source: FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010

Trends in extent of forest area(in millions ha per year)

Source: FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010

Deforestation headlines�Forests still being lost at 13 million ha/year, compared to 16

million ha/year 1990-2000 -- deforestation rates have declined

in Brazil and Indonesia, but are still high

�Large scale tree-planting efforts, especially in China, drive net

deforestation figures for Asia

�Fires and drought have exacerbated forest loss in Australia

Reasons for optimism/

Reasons for caution

� Deforestation is back on international and national agendas,

getting attention from heads of state to popular media

� Possible “perfect storm” of

� Public understanding and support

� Political will

� Sources of finance

Reasons for optimism

Reasons for caution

� Governance challenges related to

forests are especially severe:

� Strong vested interests in

continuing business as usual

� Corruption

� Vulnerable communities with

weak/contested tenure

� Poor data

� Weak institutions for managing

money and information

The dilemma

Risks of no action:

� Loss of political momentum

� Business as usual continued

versus

Risks of action:

� Subversion of objectives by

vested interests

�Unintended negative

consequences for vulnerable

groups

A few examples

Example: VPAs in Central Africa�Great opportunity to leverage interest in EC market access to

promote improved governance forest sector governance

�Puts legality and sustainability of timber production on

national agendas

� Increases attention to transparency and civil society

participation

Risks to VPA implementation (1)

� Poor data� CIFOR research (supported by the EC)

revealed significant underestimation

of the absolute and relative size of

the “domestic” timber sector

� Vested interests� Government officials benefiting from

irregular payments resist efforts to

legalize the domestic timber sector

� Professionalizing –rather than

criminalizing – the domestic timber

sector will be a major challenge

Risks to VPA implementation (2)

� Vulnerable livelihoods � Some 45,000 people in Cameroon alone

derive income from the domestic timber

sector

� Possibility that government law enforcement

efforts to attain legality will focus on “little

guys with chainsaws” rather than “big guys

with bank accounts”

Detailed CIFOR Occasional Papers on Cameroon

and Gabon are in press; papers on Congo,

CAR, DRC, Indonesia, and Ecuador to follow.

This work is supported by the EC Pro-Formal

Project.

Example: REDD+ in Indonesia � Letter of Intent with Norway presents great opportunity to

leverage concern about climate change to reduce deforestation

Risks to REDD+ implementation (1)

� Vested interests� Businesses benefiting from current concession allocation

process resisting proposed moratorium on forest conversion

� Poor data� Definition and extent of “degraded” forest at issue

Risks to REDD+ implementation (2)

� Corruption risks� Systems for ensuring the integrity of

flows of funds and information still

weak

� Vulnerable livelihoods � Concern that permitting could have

the effect of displacing local rights

holders

A CIFOR analysis of corruption risks facing

REDD+ in Indonesia is forthcoming in

cooperation with UNODC.

Example: Bioenergy

� Policies to promote bioenergy

production have the potential to

reduce climate emissions and create

new livelihood opportunities in

developing countries

� But CIFOR research (supported by

the EC) suggests that such policies

require complementary actions to:� Protect the livelihoods of customary

landusers

� Channel investment away from carbon-rich

forest frontiers

� Level the playing field for smallholder

producers

CIFOR Occasional papers and

policy briefs produced under

the EC-supported Bioenergy,

sustainability, and trade-offs

project

Implications for the way forward

(1) Maintain focus on the procedural integrity of

design and implementation� Transparency – e.g., of decision-making to narrow the scope for vested

interests to “hijack” the process

� Participation – e.g., across sectors to prevent “concentration of power” in a

single ministry

� Independent third-party monitoring – e.g., of permit holders’ performance

to ensure the integrity of reporting

(2) Invest in capacity building� CIFOR-FAO survey on forestry research in DRC in 2005 found

less than 10 active researchers in the DRC (a country that

represents 60% of the Congo Basin forests and people) – EC-

supported REAFOR project now addressing

� Many gaps remain within forestry sector in and complementary

fields necessary for good governance

(3) Invest in research (conflict of interest alert!)

� Still many data gaps to be filled

� A priori analysis of risks can help anticipate mitigation needs

� Need to monitor impacts and understand why they occur

(4) Balance risks

� Be mindful of the risks of unintended negative consequences,

but don’t lose sight of the countervailing risks of no action

� Build and support domestic constituencies for change

� Strive for “optimal optimism” about the possibility of

transformation