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FOCUS RESEARCH 24 MARCH 2016 INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price Rp 2,725 Target Price Rp 3,350 Upside/Downside 22.9% Share Out (bn shares) 3.56 Market Cap (Rp bn) 9,701.0 52 – w range (low-high) Rp 1,533 – Rp 2,985 52 w average daily Rp 2,271 SHAREHOLDERS INFORMATION 31 DECEMBER 2015 Government Of Republic of Indonesia 51% Public (below 5%) 49% Source: Company data PRICE CHART Source: Bloomberg PE BAND Source: Bloomberg and Lautandhana Research Rendy Candra [email protected] (+62-21) 5785 1818 ext. 2069 Faster pace on the right lane In 2015, ADHI managed to book revenue’s growth of 8.5% YoY to attained Rp9.4 trillion (vs Rp8.7 trillion in 2014), driven by new contract of Rp13.9 trillion (+51% YoY) with strong contribution came in 4Q15. However, both GP and EBITDA were declined by 2.4% and 5.2% YoY, respectively on the back of poor performance of EPC business. However, net profit figures increased by 43.1% YoY to Rp463.7 billion thanks to one-off transaction of Rp68 billion from impairment losses of receivable to PT Jakarta Monorail and forex gain of Rp164.8 billion. 4Q15: Top line performance surged On quarterly basis, total revenue grew 80.3% QoQ to Rp3.9 trillion Vs Rp2.2 trillion in 3Q15 thanks to the contribution of government’s project disbursement realization in previous quarter. Construction service business has become the bread and butter of the company, in which the revenue picked up in 4Q15 growing by 97.5% QoQ to Rp3.6 trillion, mainly due to the higher contribution from state government’s project. EPC business contracted the Profitability GPM decreased by 120 bps to 10.4% due to weaker performance of EPC business that has been dragging the company’s profitability since FY14. According to the management, the company is likely to cut down its EPC’s revenue portion in FY16F and will focus more on LRT project. Align with that, we estimate that revenue contribution from EPC business to decrease from 7% to 6% of total revenue in FY16F and we project GPM will improve to 11.5% in FY16F. On the bottom line, NPM increased by 110 bps to 4.9% due to fore mentioned one off transactions. Continue positive tone in FY16F Inline with the recent momentum on government infrastructure spending, we estimate a total revenue and net profit to Rp15.7 trillion grew by 68.0% YoY and Rp605.1 billion grew by 30.5% YoY, respectively, while the company’s total order book and new contract increase are projected to grow by 10.6% p.a. and 1.3% p.a. (CAGR) in FY16F- FY18F, respectively. Awaiting Light Rail Transit (LRT) project We like the company’s involvement in the Light Rail Transit (LRT) Jakarta project which expected to be completed before Asian Games in 2018. The investment value is approximately Rp34 trillion. Although the Ministry of Transportation has not awarded the contract to company but we are positive on the process. In our base case assumptions, we do not take into account this project in the projections but we have separately conducted a sensitivity analysis in case the contractual agreement is approved. In this scenario, the best case projection offers 60.0% potential upside. Initiating coverage with BUY rating – Fair value Rp3,350 per share Based on a DCF-10 year valuation, we generate the fair equity value of ADHI at Rp3,350 per share which represents a 2016F PER target of 9.96x and 2016F EV/EBITDA target of 4.01x. Based on yesterday’s closing price, ADHI was trading at a valuation of 16.04x PER 2016F and 5.66x EV/EBITDA 2016F indicating that our fair value offers a 22.9% upside potential. Hence, we initiate ADHI coverage with a BUY recommendation. Financial Summary (Rp billion) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue 8,654 9,390 15,771 20,923 21,833 EBITDA 681 643 1,204 1,648 1,769 Net profit 324 464 605 841 925 EPS (Rp) 180 203 170 236 260 PER (x) 14.40 12.77 16.27 11.71 10.65 BVPS (Rp) 969 2,254 1,569 1,742 1,913 PBV (x) 2.67 1.15 1.76 1.59 1.45 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.99 7.34 5.78 4.70 4.69 Dividend yield (%) 2.61 2.94 2.27 3.16 3.48 RoE (%) 19.74 13.44 11.27 14.27 14.21 Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research Please see important disclosures at the end of this report - 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 ADHI IDX 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 PER Average Avg + stdev Avg - stdev Avg + 2 stdev Avg - 2 stdev 16.23x 1.82x 12.62X 5.42x 9.02x
11

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May 30, 2020

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Page 1: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

FOCUS RESEARCH

24 MARCH 2016

INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK

BUY

STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ

Sector Construction

Current Price Rp 2,725

Target Price Rp 3,350

Upside/Downside 22.9%

Share Out (bn shares) 3.56

Market Cap (Rp bn) 9,701.0

52 – w range (low-high) Rp 1,533 – Rp 2,985

52 – w average daily Rp 2,271

SHAREHOLDERS INFORMATION – 31 DECEMBER 2015

Government Of Republic of Indonesia 51%

Public (below 5%) 49%

Source: Company data

PRICE CHART

Source: Bloomberg

PE BAND

Source: Bloomberg and Lautandhana Research

Rendy Candra

[email protected]

(+62-21) 5785 1818 ext. 2069

Faster pace on the right lane

In 2015, ADHI managed to book revenue’s growth of 8.5% YoY to attained Rp9.4 trillion

(vs Rp8.7 trillion in 2014), driven by new contract of Rp13.9 trillion (+51% YoY) with

strong contribution came in 4Q15. However, both GP and EBITDA were declined by

2.4% and 5.2% YoY, respectively on the back of poor performance of EPC business.

However, net profit figures increased by 43.1% YoY to Rp463.7 billion thanks to one-off

transaction of Rp68 billion from impairment losses of receivable to PT Jakarta Monorail

and forex gain of Rp164.8 billion.

4Q15: Top line performance surged

On quarterly basis, total revenue grew 80.3% QoQ to Rp3.9 trillion Vs Rp2.2 trillion in

3Q15 thanks to the contribution of government’s project disbursement realization in

previous quarter. Construction service business has become the bread and butter of

the company, in which the revenue picked up in 4Q15 growing by 97.5% QoQ to Rp3.6

trillion, mainly due to the higher contribution from state government’s project.

EPC business contracted the Profitability

GPM decreased by 120 bps to 10.4% due to weaker performance of EPC business that

has been dragging the company’s profitability since FY14. According to the

management, the company is likely to cut down its EPC’s revenue portion in FY16F and

will focus more on LRT project. Align with that, we estimate that revenue contribution

from EPC business to decrease from 7% to 6% of total revenue in FY16F and we project

GPM will improve to 11.5% in FY16F. On the bottom line, NPM increased by 110 bps to

4.9% due to fore mentioned one off transactions.

Continue positive tone in FY16F

Inline with the recent momentum on government infrastructure spending, we estimate

a total revenue and net profit to Rp15.7 trillion grew by 68.0% YoY and Rp605.1 billion

grew by 30.5% YoY, respectively, while the company’s total order book and new

contract increase are projected to grow by 10.6% p.a. and 1.3% p.a. (CAGR) in FY16F-

FY18F, respectively.

Awaiting Light Rail Transit (LRT) project

We like the company’s involvement in the Light Rail Transit (LRT) Jakarta project which

expected to be completed before Asian Games in 2018. The investment value is

approximately Rp34 trillion. Although the Ministry of Transportation has not awarded

the contract to company but we are positive on the process. In our base case

assumptions, we do not take into account this project in the projections but we have

separately conducted a sensitivity analysis in case the contractual agreement is

approved. In this scenario, the best case projection offers 60.0% potential upside.

Initiating coverage with BUY rating – Fair value Rp3,350 per share

Based on a DCF-10 year valuation, we generate the fair equity value of ADHI at Rp3,350

per share which represents a 2016F PER target of 9.96x and 2016F EV/EBITDA target of

4.01x. Based on yesterday’s closing price, ADHI was trading at a valuation of 16.04x PER

2016F and 5.66x EV/EBITDA 2016F indicating that our fair value offers a 22.9% upside

potential. Hence, we initiate ADHI coverage with a BUY recommendation.

Financial Summary

(Rp billion) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Revenue 8,654 9,390 15,771 20,923 21,833

EBITDA 681 643 1,204 1,648 1,769

Net profit 324 464 605 841 925

EPS (Rp) 180 203 170 236 260

PER (x) 14.40 12.77 16.27 11.71 10.65

BVPS (Rp) 969 2,254 1,569 1,742 1,913

PBV (x) 2.67 1.15 1.76 1.59 1.45

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.99 7.34 5.78 4.70 4.69

Dividend yield (%) 2.61 2.94 2.27 3.16 3.48

RoE (%) 19.74 13.44 11.27 14.27 14.21

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

Please see important disclosures at the end of this report

-

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

400,0

450,0

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

ADHI IDX

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan

-11

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jul-

11

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1

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

r-1

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Ma

y-1

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12

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p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

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Ma

y-1

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Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

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Ma

y-1

5

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

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No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

PER Average Avg + stdev Avg - stdev Avg + 2 stdev Avg - 2 stdev

16.23x

1.82x

12.62X

5.42x

9.02x

Page 2: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK 24 MARCH 2016

2|P a g e

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Inline 2015 bottom line result but due to one-off gain

In 2015, ADHI managed to book revenue’s growth of 8.5% YoY to attained Rp9.4 trillion (vs Rp8.7

trillion in 2014), driven by new contract of Rp13.9 trillion (+51% YoY). However, both GP and EBITDA

declined by 2.4% and 5.2% YoY, respectively. GP was declined due to weak performance from EPC

business as the company struggled to source local worker and logistic cost since many projects are

located in rural area. This, coupled with the increasing salary cost by 10.9% YoY resulting in declining

EBITDA amounting to Rp643.2 billion. Meanwhile, the net profit increased by 43.1% YoY reached to

Rp463.7 billion thanks to forex gain of Rp164.8 billion and one-off transaction of Rp68 billion from

impairment losses of receivable to PT Jakarta Monorail. In all, This figure came in-line within consensus

expectation, in which the revenue and net profit have covered by 74.3% and 117.4%, respectively.

4Q15: Top line performance surged

On quarterly basis, total revenue grew 80.3% QoQ to Rp3.9 trillion Vs Rp2.2 trillion in 3Q15 thanks to

the contribution of government’s project disbursement realization in previous quarter. We like the

increased contribution from construction service business, in which the revenue picked up in 4Q15

growing by 97.5% QoQ to Rp3.6 trillion, mainly due to the higher contribution from state

government’s project.

Interim Financial Result

FY14A FY15A YoY Cons. % cons 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ The Comments

Assumption

New Contract 9,217.0 13,965.0 51.5% 18,800.0 74.3% 3,853.0 3,947.0 2.4%

P/L (In Rp billion)

Revenue 8,653.6 9,389.6 8.5% 11,007.3 85.3% 2,203.8 3,973.7 80.3% In line with the higher infrastructure spending

Cost of revenue 7,655.4 8,414.9 9.9% 9,714.7 86.6% 1,995.0 3,532.8 77.1%

Gross profit 998.2 974.6 -2.4% 1,292.6 75.4% 208.8 440.9 111.2%

Operating Expense 361.2 395.5 9.5% 449.9 87.9% 90.3 149.9 66.0%

Operating profit 637.0 579.2 -9.1% 851.7 68.0% 118.6 291.1 145.5%

EBITDA 680.9 643.2 -5.5% 912.6 70.5% 130.5 323.4 147.9%

Net Profit 324.0 463.7 43.1% 395.0 117.4% 67.4 325.2 382.3% YoY margin due to strong forex gain

Profitability

Gross margin 11.5% 10.4% 11.7% 9.5% 11.1%

EBIT margin 7.4% 6.2% 7.7% 5.4% 7.3%

EBITDA margin 7.9% 6.9% 8.3% 5.9% 8.1%

Net margin 3.7% 4.9% 3.6% 3.1% 8.2%

Revenue Breakdown

Construction services 6.767 7.994 18.1% 1,818 3,591 97.5%

EPC 863 636 -26.4% 187 121 -34.9% Difficult to ensure local worker and logistic cost

Property 859 611 -28.9% 172 162 -5.7% Flat Sales due to slow purchasing power

Precast 165 149 -9.6% 27 99 266.1% Difficult in construction permit

Total Revenue 8,654 9,390 8,5% 2,204 3,974 80.3%

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

EPC business contracted the Profitability

GPM decreased by 120 bps to 10.4% due to weaker performance of EPC business that has been

dragging the company’s profitability since FY14. The management plans to cut down its EPC’s revenue

portion in FY16F and will focus more on LRT project. Therefore, we estimate that revenue contribution

from EPC business will decline from 7% to 6% of total revenue in FY16F and we project GPM will

improve to 11.5% in FY16F. On the bottom line, NPM increased by 110 bps to 4.9% due to fore

mentioned one off transactions.

Revenue Growth and EBITDA 2014A – 2018F Gross Profit Margin Per Segment from 2014A – 2018F

s

s

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

Page 3: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

24 MARCH 2016 PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK

P a g e | 3

Continue positive tone in FY16F

Inline with the continuing trend of higher government spending on infrastructure, the company will

ride the wave to enjoy this momentum in FY16F. Hence, we project a total revenue and net profit to

Rp15.7 trillion grew by 68.0% YoY and Rp605.1 billion grew by 30.5% YoY, respectively, while the

company’s total order book and new contract increase are projected to grow by 10.6% p.a. and 1.3%

p.a. (CAGR) in FY16F-FY18F, respectively.

Order Book Breakdown

In Rp billion 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Order Book

New Contract 9,217 13,965 24,419 24,908 25,406

Carry Over 8,667 9,212 13,756 22,369 26,314

Total Order Book 17,884 23,177 38,175 47,277 51,720

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

A Good kickoff in 2M16

As of February 2016, the company has achieved new contract of Rp1.7 Trillion or 6.7% of new contract

targeted in 2016F. We see this achievement is a good kickoff for 2016. Secured projects (as of 2M16),

are as follow:

a. Bojong Apartment Tower project worth Rp 241.7 billion

b. Job Structure and architectural of Factory PT Kimia Farma Tbk worth Rp136.5 billion

c. Construction of Engineering Faculty of Hasanuddin University worth Rp129 billion

d. Cinere Apartment Terrace Suites worth Rp315.2 billion

e. Tarakan Gas pipeline project in Tarakan worth Rp199.2 billion

Based on the management guidance, the company projected Rp25.1 trillion of new contract in 2016FY

and consist of construction services, EPC, Property and Precast Manufacture with the portion of

75.1%, 6.9%, 8.6%, and 9.4%, respectively.

Revenue Breakdown in FY16F Revenue Breakdown in FY17F

Source: Lautandhana Research Source: Lautandhana Research

Page 4: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK 24 MARCH 2016

4|P a g e

New Contract as of 2M16 based on Type of Work New Contract as of 2M16 based on Project Owner

Source: Lautandhana Research Source: Ministry of Transportation

Page 5: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

24 MARCH 2016 PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK

P a g e | 5

Awaiting Light Rail Transit (LRT) project

One main catalyst for the company is the Light Rail Transit (LRT) Jakarta which has started its

groundbreaking on September 9, 2015 and is expected to be accomplished before Asian Games in

2018.

LRT train LRT’s Route Jakarta

Source: Lautandhana Research Source: Ministry of Transportation

Government of Indonesia has signed the Presidential Decree no. 98 year 2015 dated on September 2,

2015 and appointed ADHI as the contractor in this project. Moreover, the project is guaranteed by

another presidential decree No. 99 year 2015 to expedite the progress of LRT project. Based on

revised statement from the management, LRT project will worth approximately Rp34 trillion. But we

are still awaiting on the finalization of contractual agreement, which covers contract cost and

payment method, between ADHI and Ministry of Transportation that is still pending. The project will

consist of six routes within Jakarta, Bogor, Depok and Bekasi. ADHI has acquired capital injection of

Rp2.75 trillion through right issue mechanism.

LRT Project Scheme

Total Investment Rp34 Trillion

Passenger Capacity/day 816,000

Estimation tariff (subsidized) Rp15k – Rp20k

Train Velocity 60-80 km/hour

Routes Length (km)

Phase 1

Cibubur – Bekasi Timur – Cawang – Dukuh Atas 42.1

Phase 2

Cibubur – Bogor – Dukuh Atas – Palmerah - Senayan 30.5

Phase 3

Palmerah – Grogol 11.0

Total Routes 83.6

Source: Company Data and Lautandhana Research

Construction will be divided into three phases

LRT’s construction spanned by 83.6 km which will be divided in 3 phases. Phase 1 connecting Cibubur

– Bekasi Timur – Cawang – Dukuh Atas (42.1 km) consist of 18 stations and expected to be

accomplished in the end of 2017. Phase 2 connecting Cibubur – Bogor – Dukuh Atas – Palmerah -

Senayan (41.5 km) consist of 10 stations. Both phases are scheduled to start in 2Q16 and expected to

be completed in 2018. Going forward, Phase 3 will connect Palmerah – Grogol which (11.0 km) and

expected to be completed in 2019. The land used for these projects will either utilized Jasa Marga’s

(JSMR IJ) existing land, normally adjacent to its toll roads, and other land location owned by state or

central government.

Page 6: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK 24 MARCH 2016

6|P a g e

VALUATION METHODOLOGY

Under our base case scenario (without LRT project), we generate the fair equity value of ADHI at

Rp3,350 per share which represents a 2016F PER target of 9.96x and 2016F EV/EBITDA target of 4.01x.

Based on yesterday’s closing price, ADHI was trading at a valuation of 16.04x PER 2016F and 5.66x

EV/EBITDA 2016F indicating that our fair value offers a 22.9% upside potential. Hence, we initiate

ADHI coverage with a BUY recommendation.

Valuation Matrix

Company Name Ticker Market Cap * PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F

Indonesia PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI IJ 9.95 16.27 11.71 5.78 4.70

PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA IJ 16.45 20.92 16.26 9.17 7.18

PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT IJ 27.21 21.31 17.21 13.02 10.12

PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) Tbk PTPP IJ 18.79 20.55 16.25 8.94 7.10

PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk TOTL IJ 2.35 12.38 10.44 5.98 5.04

PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk NRCA IJ 1.64 11.13 9.32 5.00 4.20

Industry Average 17.09 13.53 7.98 6.39

*) In Rp Trillion

At closing price of March 18, 2016

Source: Bloomberg and Lautandhana Research

What’s the impact of LRT project to our valuation?

We have also conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of the LRT project in the case

that the contractual agreement is approved by the Ministry of Transportation.

In this scenario, we took into account LRT’s multiyear project, with total value of Rp34 trillion to be

equally split into FY16F - FY19F, which add new contract value of Rp8.5 trillion per year. Furthermore,

we assume the revenue recognition of the project amounted to 10% if FY16F, and increased to 45%

and 75% in FT17F and FY18F, respectively, and to be fully completed in FY19F. Based on this scenario,

the valuation of the company offers a 60.0% potential upside with TP of Rp4,360 per share, compared

to Rp3,350 per share under the base case scenario.

.

Second assumption with LRT project 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Order Book Breakdown

New Contract 24,419 24,908 25,406 25,914

Carry Over 13,756 22,369 26,314 29,838

New Contract from LRT Project 8,500 8,500 8,500 8,500

Carry Over from LRT Project - 7,650 8,883 4,346

Total Order Book 46,675 63,426 69,102 68,597

Revenue Breakdown

Net Revenue 16,621 28,190 34,870 36,478

Gross Profit 1,914 3,307 4,162 4,368

EBITDA 1,265 2,192 2,766 2,918

Net Profit 639 1,139 1,472 1,541

Valuation Result

Target Price 4,360

Potential Upside 60.0%

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

Page 7: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

24 MARCH 2016 PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK

P a g e | 7

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

A good start of Budget Realization in 1M16

State Budget 2016 Vs 1M16 Realization (In Rp Trillion) APBN 2016 Actual as of 1M16 % to APBN 2016

A. Government's Revenue 1,823 94.9 5.2%

1. Tax Revenue 1,547 78.8 5.1%

2. Non Tax Revenue 274 16.1 5.8%

3. Grant 2 - -

B. Government's Expenditure 2,096 164.9 7.8%

1. Central Government's Expenditure 1,325 64.9 4.9%

Ministerial expenditure 784 27.8 3.5%

Non Ministerial expenditure 541 37.1 6.8%

2. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770 100 13.0%

C. Primary Balance (88) - -

D. Fiscal Surplus / (Deficit) (273) (70) -

E. Financing 273 - -

Source: Ministry of Finance and Lautandhana Research

Based on data from Ministry of Finance as of January 2016, Government of Indonesia has realized the

revenue of Rp94.9 trillion or 5.2% of total government’s revenue in State Budget 2016 and

government’s expenditure of Rp164.9 trillion or 7.8% of total government’s expenditure. We see this

acceleration is the impact of the government’s focus in infrastructure and construction in Indonesia.

Improved economic growth in 4Q15

In 4Q15, construction sector has contributed Rp238 trillion or 10.8% to total GDP of Rp2.193.7 trillion.

Improved economic growth in 4Q15 primarily driven by increased domestic demand either in the form

of government consumption or investment in infrastructure.

Real Gross Domestic Product (In RpTrillion) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Total Real GDP 2.009 2.086 2.148 2.109 2.099 2.171 2.231 2.194

Construction Contribution 195 202 209 220 207 213 224 238

% to Total Real GDP 9,7% 9,7% 9,7% 10,4% 9,9% 9,8% 10,0% 10,8%

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics and Lautandhana Research

In 2016, we expect that Indonesian economic growth to improve more significant mainly driven by the

fiscal stimulus, particularly infrastructure projects, and consumption remain strong. Meanwhile,

investment is expected to increase, along with the implementation of the Government Policy Package

that encourage investment and macroeconomic stability.

Page 8: FR ADHI 20160324 YJ Final _20160324_YJ_Final.pdf · INITIATING COVERAGE PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK BUY STOCK INFORMATION Bloomberg Code ADHI IJ Sector Construction Current Price

PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK 24 MARCH 2016

8|P a g e

COMPANY PROFILE

The First Infrastructure Company to be listed in IDX

After the nationalization from Ducth owned Company in 1960, ADHI or the company became one of

the infrastructure development pioneer in Indonesia. Currently, ADHI is one of the largest SOE’s with

various prestigious projects in Indonesia. On 18 March 2004, ADHI became the first construction

company to be listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. To strengthen its construction business, the

company continues to innovate and transformed into an integrated infrastructure company through

the establishment of subsidiary companies, i.e.: Adhi Persada Properti, Adhi Persada Realti, Adhi

Persada Gedung and Adhi Persada beton.

Key Milestones

Source: Company data

In its development, ADHI restructured its business segments into 5 five lines business in 2011, namely:

Construction, Engineering Procurement & Construction, Property, Real Estate and Infrastructure

Investment. Through these five lines of business, ADHI expects that the company’s performance will

be more solid to achieve its vision to become a leading construction company in Southeast Asia.

5 lines of Business

Source: Company data

The five lines of business represent ADHI’s sustainable business transformation which comprises of:

1. Construction

a. Civil Construction, focuses on civil development projects that owned by the government or

private enterprise;

b. Building Construction, works on building facility owned by the government or private

enterprise. This line business is managed by one of its subsidiary PT Adhi Persada Gedung

(APG) which mainly engaged in building construction especially construction of high rise

building. Currently, ADHI has an equity interest of 99% in APG.

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24 MARCH 2016 PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK

P a g e | 9

2. Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC)

Business services for planning, procurement including construction, especially related to the oil

& gas industry as well as power plants.

3. Property Business

Development and management of areas and building facilities for offices, apartments and

hotels. This line business is under its 99% owned subsidiary, PT Adhi Persada Properti (APP).

4. Real Estate Business

Under 99.97% owned subsidiary, PT Adhi Persada Realti (APR) develops area and building

facilities for landed house with cluster system in various strategic location in Indonesia.

5. Infrastructure Investment business engaged in:

This business line is comprises of:

a. Infrastructure, works on toll roads and LRT construction

b. Hospitality business, works on build and operate hotel by utilizing company’s asset.

c. Power Producer (Independent Power Product/IPP) business conduct a public private

partnership and other investment schemes.

d. PT Adhi Persada Beton, engaged in the field of industry, export-import trading of precast

concrete and related business activities.

ADHI and its subsidiaries

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

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PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) TBK 24 MARCH 2016

10|P a g e

Financial Highlights of PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk

In Rp Billion

BALANCE SHEET 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F INCOME STATEMENT 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F

ASSETS

Cash and cash equivalent 811 4,317 5,254 4,089 Total Revenues 8,654 9,390 15,771 20,923

Accounts Receivable 2,896 3,311 5,562 7,379

Inventories 132 163 270 357 COGS 7,655 8,415 13,955 18,468

Other current assets 5,645 6,900 4,731 6,277

Total Current Assets 9,484 14,691 15,817 18,101 Gross profit 998 975 1,816 2,454

Fixed Assets 496 1,099 2,171 3,185

Investments property 356 330 294 327 Operating expenses 361 395 681 889

Other noncurrent assets 122 641 269 266

Total Non-Current Assets 975 2,070 2,734 3,777 Operating profit 637 579 1,136 1,565

TOTALASSETS 10,459 16,761 18,551 21,878 EBITDA 681 643 1,204 1,648

LIABILITIES&EQUITY Equity net income of associates - - - -

Short term loan 692 1,115 365 365 Interest income 33 51 48 47

Accounts Payable 4,923 6,489 8,411 11,132 Interest expenses (137) (137) (163) (181)

Current maturities–LT debts - - - - Others (15) 68 (41) (41)

Other current liabilities 1,454 1,810 2,027 2,392 Total other income/(expenses) (118) (18) (155) (175)

Total Current Liabilities 7,070 9,414 10,804 13,889

LT debt-net current maturities 1,577 2,003 2,003 1,628 Income before tax 519 561 980 1,390

Other noncurrent liabilities 61 181 125 122

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,638 2,184 2,128 1,750 Tax expense (268) (281) (492) (683)

Minority Interest 7 8 33 37

Capital Stock 180 356 356 356 Net profit before minority interest 251 280 489 707

Additional paid in capital 50 2,588 2,588 2,588

Others equity 5 420 420 420 Minority interest 3 1 3 5

Retained earnings 1,510 1,790 2,222 2,838

Total Equity 1,745 5,154 5,586 6,202 Net profit 253 282 492 712

TOTALLIABILITIES&EQUITY 10,459 16,761 18,551 21,878 EPS (Rp) 180 203 170 236

CASH FLOW STATEMENT 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F

Net profit 324 464 605 841 Growth (%)

Depreciation &Amortization 25 32 33 43 Revenue (11.69) 8.51 67.97 32.66

Change in WC (427) 1,120 (436) 817 Gross profit (16.34) (2.36) 86.36 35.11

Others (1,039) (899) 2,386 (1,181) Operating Profit (28.66) (6.74) 91.49 37.12

Net Operating Cash Flow (1,116) 716 2,589 520 EBITDA (27.09) (5.53) 87.14 36.92

Net Profit (20.46) 43.10 30.49 38.97

Change in fixed assets-net (250) (635) (1,105) (1,057)

Others (128) (492) 407 (29) Profitability (%)

Net Investing Cash Flow (379) (1,127) (698) (1,086) Gross margin 11.54 10.38 11.52 11.73

Operating margin 7.57 6.51 7.42 7.67

Change in borrowings-net 560 849 (750) (375) EBITDA margin 7.87 6.85 7.63 7.88

Change in equity 3 3,129 - - Net Profit margin 3.74 4.94 3.84 4.02

Change in other liabilities (73) 121 (56) (3) ROAA 3.21 3.41 3.43 4.16

Dividend payment (122) (123) (173) (225) ROAE 19.74 13.44 11.27 14.27

Adjustment 3 (63) 1 25

Net Financing Cash Flow 371 3,914 (978) (578) Solvency(x)

Current ratio 1.34 1.56 1.46 1.30

Change in cash (1,124) 3,502 913 (1,144) Quick ratio 1.32 1.54 1.44 1.28

DER 1.30 0.61 0.42 0.32

Cash at the beginning period 1,940 811 4,317 5,254 EBITDA coverage 4.99 4.70 7.40 9.11

Cash at the ending period 811 4,317 5,254 4,089 Net debt to equity 0.84 Netcash Netcash Netcash

Source: Company data and Lautandhana Research

Notes:

The definitions of Lautandhana Research for Investment Ratings:

- BUY : +15% and above, over the next 12 months

- Neutral : -15% to +15%, over the next 12 months

- SELL : -15% and worse, over the next 12 months

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PT Lautandhana Securindo Wisma KEIAI 15th Floor

Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav. 3

Jakarta 10220

Tel : +6221 5785 1818

Fax : +6221 5785 1717

BRANCH OFFICE

Pluit Kelapa Gading

Kawasan CBD Pluit Blok A No.20 Sentra Bisnis Artha Gading

Jl. Pluit Selatan Raya No.1 Jl. Boulevard Artha Gading Blok A6B No. 7

Jakarta 14440 Jakarta Utara 14240

Tel : +6221 6667 5345 Tel : +6221 4585 6402

Fax : +6221 6667 5234 Fax : +6221 4587 3961

Mangga Dua Puri

Mangga Dua Square Blok F No.23 Rukan Grand Taman Aries Niaga

Jl. Gunung Sahari Raya No.1 Jl. Taman Aries – Kembangan Blok G 1 No. 1 I

Jakarta 14420 Jakarta Barat 11620

Tel : +6221 6231 3288 Tel : +6221 2931 9515

Fax : +6221 6231 1365 Fax : +6221 2931 9516

Bandung Surabaya

Komplek Paskal Hyper Square Blok C No. 15 Jl. Diponegoro 48D-E

Jl. Pasir Kaliki No. 25 - 27 Surabaya 60264

Bandung 40181 Tel : +6231 562 2555

Tel : +6222 8606 1027 Fax : +6231 567 1398

Fax : +6222 8606 0684

Medan Medan

Jalan Cut Mutia No.15B Kampus STMIK-STIE MIKROSKILL

Medan 20152 Jl. Thamrin No. 140

Tel : +6261 451 8855 Medan

Fax : +6261 451 1833

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT. Lautandhana Securindo on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes

only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced

independently and the forecasts, opinions, and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lautandhana Securindo.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT.

Lautandhana Securindo makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided

solely for the information of clients of PT. Lautandhana Securindo who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this

report. Neither PT Lautandhana Securindo nor any officer or employee of PT Lautandhana Securindo accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT Lautandhana Securindo and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon

or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication.