FORMER (?) SOVIET UNION
Dec 17, 2015
IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHY
•Size
•Type of Landmass
•Water
Worst Case Scenario
•Transportation
•Borders
•“Enemies”
Internal/Domestic
Internal Dissent & Revolt
Infiltration & Color Revolutions
Islam, militancy & Secession
Undermining it all….Demographics
•DemographicDemographicss
•Birth/Birth/Death ratesDeath rates•EthnicityEthnicity•DistributioDistributionn•EmigrationEmigration•ImmigratioImmigration n •DrugsDrugs•Disease Disease (TB/HIV)(TB/HIV)
Populations• MUSLIMS
– 1980 – 10% of the population (in Russia proper)– 2007 – 12.5% of the population in Russia– 2020 - ~20% of the population in Russia
• HIV/AIDS– Government reports 400,000 living with HIV– UNAIDS estimates it is over 900,000
• TB– Russia is ranked 12th in the world for TB cases– TB cases have tripled since the fall of the Soviet Union
RUSSIA’S Six Pillars of Power
•Political
•Social
•Natural Resources
•Security Services
•Military
•Geographic
POLITICAL & SOCIAL CONSOLIDATION
OUT:
The Family
The Oligarchs
IN:
Nashi
Putin Worship
United Russia“Democratic”political parties
ECONOMIC CONSOLIDATION
Economic Security over Economic Sense• Western System – About profitability
– Money is an end– Crush inefficiency– Protect the system
• Eastern System – About social stability– Crush unemployment– Us money as a political resource for non-financial ends– Minimize disruption
• Russian System – Think the Godfather– All about control, which equals security– Screw the people– Screw efficiency– Criminal mentality – Economics = Politics
Energy
• Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, second largest coal reserves & eighth largest oil reserves.
• Russia is the largest natural gas and second largest oil producer
• And its energy network is the largest (and most complicated) in the world…
Wrap-Up…
• Russia’s geopolitical imperative is: security– Internally through consolidation and terror– Externally through expansion and creation of a
buffer• Which ripples and dominates the rest of the former
Soviet States and the rest of the world.
• This is evident through each of Russia’s cycles
• Russia has a myriad of tools to achieve this• This is most likely Russia’s last run before a
new cycle begins….