Foreign policy options for pakistan

Foreign Policy Options for Pakistan

Geo-Strategic, Geo-Political and Geo-Economic Determinants of Pakistan’s

Foreign Policy

Geo-Strategic:“While history has been unkind with Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefit.”

“Pakistan is one of the nine pivotal states whose future evolution would not only determine the fate of the South Asian region but also effect international stability.”

Historian Paul Kennedy• Pakistan is located at a junction which has great political,

economic and strategic potential.• Proximity to great powers such as China & Russia, proximity to

central Asia & oil rich Middle East countries are few points that signify the importance of Pakistan`s Geo-strategic location.

Geo-Strategic Location of Pakistan

Geo Strategic, Geo Political and Geo Economic Determinants of Pakistan’s

Foreign Policy

Geo-Political:Pakistan’s policy determinants are a mix of its:

History India and Pakistan became adversaries at independence

and have so remained. Religious Heritage

Pakistan also saw itself as a vanguard of independent Muslim states. Built its policy around it

Shock of Fall of Dhaka: Resulted in further endorsement Gen. Zia politicized and constitutionalized it with the

encouragement of the international community 1998 our Nuclear Bomb is also seen as the Islamic Bomb

Geo-Strategic, Geo-Political and Geo-Economics Determinants of Pakistan’s

Foreign PolicyGeo-Economics:

Economic Compulsions Mechanisms of Governance oriented towards

external alleviation + internal stability Internal resources focused on the attainment and

maintenance of systemic stability and not efficiency Prioritization of human and material resources

towards the maintenance of State viability. Intra-State conflict, lack of economic

consensus

Shifts in Foreign Policy of Pakistan Transition in Foreign policy from Geo-Political

calculations to Geo-Economics Global Wealth shift from West to Asian countries. Changing regional power equation China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Modern Day Silk Road). Shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy to maintain a balance between Saudi

Arabia and Iran. Distanced itself from the middle eastern politics (Yemen and Syria) Policy of non-interference in other neighbouring countries, including

India and Afghanistan to bring peace and stability in the region. Sincere efforts on War on Terror and Global appreciation and

acknowledgement of Zarb-e-Azb. Pakistan’s image as peace cultivating state. Sincere efforts to bring Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process Escape from the risk of bankruptcy that Pakistan faced in 2013 is a big

gain for the country

Four Triangles of Pakistan’s Foreign policy

US

AfghanistanPakistan

US

IndiaPakistan

US

ChinaPakistan

US

PakistanMiddle East

Pak-Afghanistan Relations Pak-Afghanistan relations are not based on a simple linear equation Trust deficit since the inception of the Pakistan Relations have remained hostage to maneuvering of India in Afghanistan Cross border raids from both sides of the Durand Line still remains

irritant in the relations Intensification of hostilities following the withdrawal of foreign troops

with less contingency troops in different parts of Afghanistan.

__2015 was the worst year on record for civilian casualties in Afghanistan. Pakistan is the largest stakeholder to a peaceful and prosperous

Afghanistan and the peace in Pakistan is linked with peace in Afghanistan

Confidence and trust building measures between Pakistan and Afghanistan Government are still on page.

Pakistan has so much intractably involved in the quagmire that despite sincere efforts in pursuit of peace, it still comes under severe criticism from the Afghan government.

Contemporary Trends

Sincere efforts and commitment of Pakistan to bring peace in Afghanistan under Quad ri lateral Coordination Group (QCG) initiative

Refusal by Taliban to join peace talks and the death of Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan Territory __major setback to the peace process

Further delay in US troops exit is a real impediment to peace in Afghanistan and US desire not to cut down number of troops to 5,500 by the end of 2016

The stalemate on transit trade route access on both sides and route

Poor border management question and blame game

Pak-China Relations Pak-China relations are based on “Time-tested” & “All

Weather Friendship” and convergence of interests. Historically supported Pakistan against the rivalry of

India. Supported on diplomatic, military and economic front

since 1960s. Chinese investment in the net FDI Pakistan has received in

Jul-Jan 2015-16 stands at 63.1%, more than double from 30% a year ago.

In the Asia-Pacific, China’s advancement in the South China Sea has exacerbated tensions with other Asia-Pacific allied with the U.S. China needs allies to change the world order and it begins with Pakistan.

Contemporary Trends Instrumental in initiating the full of membership of Shanghai

Cooperation organization (SCO). CPEC and economic integration with China will provide Pakistan

economic gains and a balance to its relationship with its larger neighbours

• China’s submarine operations in the Indian Ocean and the Chinese-Pakistani naval cooperation will have the potential to change the regional naval power balance.

• The construction of civil, energy and military infrastructure projects under CPEC which also cover Azad Kashmir and the areas of Gilgit and Baltistan will have strategic implications.

• Pakistan is the top recipient of China’s arms. This military assistance and co-operation is being likely to improve after CPEC. This cooperation could be in the form of setting up nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and conventional arms export.

Pak-India Relations More than six decades after independence, Pakistan-India relations are

less extensive than were those between the United States and the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.

Since Independence, Pakistan-India relations have been under the shadows of suspicions, misunderstandings, tensions and wars. Both states never succeeded to win the mutual interests of each other because of their unresolved disputes. Myopic approach and lack of co-operation.

Pakistan-India Relations can be best described as one step ahead and two steps backward.

India has been seen as continually seeking regional hegemony thus always creating a threat of insecurity for Pakistan.

India strives to impose systemic Unipolarity whereas Pakistan seeks to maintain Bipolarity. Thus ensuing divergence of structural interests creates conflict prone regional dynamics.

Pak-India Relations India’s hegemonic interests, uncontested regional power, greater

global influence and ill will towards Pakistan by growing aggregate power base increase Pakistan perception of existential threat.

Kashmir and water remain the dangerous flash points between India and Pakistan.

Contemporary Trends Pakistan’s policy of distancing from all anti- Indian non state

actors which is itself a promising trend.Pathankot incident ____a test case, setting a good precedent of restrain

and intelligence sharing.

Recent intelligence sharing by Pakistan National Security Adviser (NSA) Nasir Janjua with his India counterpart about a possible

terror attack in Gujarat. 

US-India Relations US- India have opened up to one another by way of trade, diplomacy or

strategic relations. U.S. is using “Asia Pivot” policy to co-opt a large number of countries

stretching from Japan to India, to contain China. Post-U.S. withdrawal coordination in Afghanistan, and the need for

maritime security in Asia. U.S. need India as a strategic ally to contain and counterweight the

emergence of strong China- Russia nexus expected to be followed by Pakistan as a key actor.

India and the U.S. have the potential to be each other’s largest trade and investment partners, with significant benefits for both economies and peoples.

Russia’s military cooperation agreement with Pakistan last November (the first since the fall of the Soviet Union) has intensified India and U.S. concerns.

US-India Relations Post 2008 Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, waiver to the  Nuclear Suppliers Group

(48 nations cartel) was granted to India under U.S. pressure during Bush Administration.

During 2014, U.S. and India announced India-U.S. Defense Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI), including coproduction of the Raven unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an “intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance” module for the Lockheed Martin-manufactured C-130J transport.

Trade and investment is one the key of strengthening and enduring bilateral relations between India and the U.S.

During 2014, U.S. trade with India touched an all time exports and imports close to $67 billion.

Policy to counsel nuclear restraint to Pakistan and on the other, selling state-of-the-art conventional weapons to India.

The United States, over the period 1946-2012, has given India the largest amount of $65.1bn economic assistance. USAID data Statistics.  

US-Pakistan Relations in the regional context

Duplicity of actions on the US side Confused signals despite Pakistan’s sincere efforts and

sacrifices on War on Terror Confused and lack of coherent policy to deal with Afghan

Taliban US looking towards India to deliver in Afghanistan as a

major player and minus Pakistan from the peace process in Afghanistan

The issue of F-16, Shakil Afridi and lope sided policy on the nuclear issue and the latest drone attack in Balochistan are self-evident of US duplicity

Pak-Middle East Relations Religious Holy Land link Pakistan has traditionally attached much importance to its

relations with the Muslim countries as a part of its commitment to the notion of the ‘Ummah’ or Muslim Universalism.

__Support for the Palestinian cause Non-Partisan Policy

__ concrete military support to Syria in the 1973 Arab- Israel war.

__ supplied 5,000 troops to Saudi Arabia against the backdrop of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

Pak-Middle East Relations Developed multifaceted relations in economic and

security fields with Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states.

Quid pro quo: Petro bonanza by Middle Eastern states, in return Pakistan helped in building their armies, airlines and media.

Tilt in Pakistan’s policy vis- a-vis Middle East came after the Iranian Revolution, i.e. in favour of conservative monarchies as compared to radical states such as Syria, Libya and Iran.

Policy to build warm relations with all Middle Eastern states turned into partisan due to the political turmoil and polarization of the Middle East.

Pak-Middle East Relations

Contemporary Trends Pakistan’s policy to remain neutral in ongoing intra-Arab

conflict prevented the fault-lines and sectarian divide present in the country to be further disturbed.

The convergence between Saudi Arabia and India has now gained a lot more depth

The Middle East would likely stay a precarious course in the coming years.

Proximity, energy reliance, a large Pakistan immigrant population and traditional links will be crucial to maintain policy of non-interference for Pakistan in Middle East turmoil.

Pakistan must positively engaged with its Middle Eastern allies

Foreign Policy of Pakistan Recommendation: Pragmatic evaluation of long-term national interests Diversification of the foreign policy Strive for balanced foreign policy between East and West Diplomatic Maneuvering Not based on imbalances Need for coherent and consistent approach and synergy

between military and political leadership Address the intellectual gaps

Thank You