#Forecasting Daily Power #Generation of #SolarPlant

April - June 2017 Vol. XXV No.2

Featured Articles

Electricity Pricing: Re-Thinking Policy for Paradigm ShiftAuthor: D. Radhakrishna(Director-Deeaar Group)

26Page

J&K, Punjab Ink Historic Agreementon Water Power Sharing16

Page

REC To Be Premier Power Sector Financing & Development Enterprise by 2020

30Page

NTPC Installs India's Largest Floating Solar PV Plant44

Page

Power Ministry Planningon New Hydropower Policy48

Page

Nissan Leaf Electric Car Consideredfor India; Pilot Run Planned later this Year59

Page

Contents

India Power | April - June 2017 01

59 Nissan Leaf Electric Car Considered for India; Pilot Run Planned later this Year

Editor'sPICK06

Section

03 Editorial

From TheEDITORIAL BOARD01

Section

60 Is Lacking in Values Hurting Us ? by Dr. Gyan Dutt Gautama

InLIGHTER VEIN07

Section

Front Inside Siemens09 Naresh Kumar & Co. 11 Dynamic Cables Pvt. Ltd. 15 Secure Meters Ltd. 19 CESC Ltd. 21 Tata Power Delhi Distribution Ltd. 33 Uttar Gujarat Vij Company Ltd. 35 Therapeutics Chemical Research Corporation41 AKA Logistics Pvt. Ltd. 47 Convergence India 201849 Desein Pvt. Ltd. 51 PTC India Ltd. 56 8th World Renewable Energy Technology CongressBack Inside CPU Recommended EventsBack Outside Tata Power

ADVERTISERS

FeaturedARTICLES03

Section

12 Forecasting Daily Power Generation of Solar PlantsAuthor: Abhik Kumar Das(Founding Member-Del2Infinity Energy Consulting)

26 Electricity Pricing: Re-Thinking Policy for Paradigm ShiftAuthor: D. Radhakrishna (Director-Deeaar Group)

36 The Use of Innovative Groundwater Seepage DetectionTechniquesAuthor: Dr. Andy Hughes(Director of Dams & Water Resources, Atkins Fellow, Visiting Professor in Dam Engineering - BristolUniversity, Chairman- British Dam SocietyInfrastructure)

02 Looking Forward to 10th India Power Awards 05 Post-Event Coverage: Seminar on Future of Dam

Leakage Detection Systems28 CPU Welcomes New Subscribers29 India Power Journal Subscription FormBack Inside CPU Recommended Events

02Section Activities of the

COUNCIL

44 NTPC Installs India's Largest Floating Solar PV Plant

45 BHEL Looks to Provide From Power Sector to Transportation, Electric Vehicles

52 Funding of New Investment, Bad Loans are Big Concerns: Naresh Takkar-ICRA

53 Canadian Solar Signs PPAs for 80MW in India

54 In Virgina: Push for Pumped Storage Hydro, Questions Arise about Viability

57 Are Opportunities Increasing in the Renewable Energy Sector

32 Cabinet Approves The Investment Proposal for Generation Component of Arun-III Hydro Electric Project in Nepal by SJVN Ltd.

42 Tata Power Touches Over 5 Lakh Lives through various CSR Initiatives for Holistic Development of Communities

50 Sikkim Becomes 22nd State to join UDAY

PRESS RELEASES

Govt.DIARIES04

Section

04 Innovate to Bring Down Cost of Power:Shri Piyush Goyal

10 Plans For '24x7 Power For All' In True Spirit ofCooperative Federalism-Piyush Goyal

16 J&K, Punjab Ink Historic Agreement onWater Power Sharing

20 Govt. to Extend Sops For Mega Power Policy Projects by 5 Years

30 REC To Be Premier Power Sector Financing & Development Enterprise by 2020

40 India Expresses Willingness to Support Bangladesh in Renewable Energy Sector

48 Power Ministry Planning on New Hydropower Policy

NEWS22 Africa's Green Energy Challenge: Mega Projects, Off-Grid or

Somewhere in Between ?34 Amendments to Mega Power Policy '09 Gives Breather to Banks

News &PRESS RELEASES05

Section

EditorC.V.J VarmaAssociate EditorTanushree SharmaEditorial Office415, Jaina Tower III,4th Floor, A1 Block,Janakpuri New Delhi-110058Tel: +91-11-25618472Fax: +91-11-25611622Email: [email protected],[email protected]: www.indiapower.org

Design & Printed byMadysin Design

Email: [email protected]

Call @ 9873288860,011-45637840

Official Journal of Council of Power UtilitiesThe statements and opinions expressed in this Journal are not necessarily those of Council of Power Utilities. All communication regarding the Journal may be addressed to Editorial Office.© 2016 India PowerReproduction permitted with due acknowledgements

Contents

India Power | April - June 2017 01

59 Nissan Leaf Electric Car Considered for India; Pilot Run Planned later this Year

Editor'sPICK06

Section

03 Editorial

From TheEDITORIAL BOARD01

Section

60 Is Lacking in Values Hurting Us ? by Dr. Gyan Dutt Gautama

InLIGHTER VEIN07

Section

Front Inside Siemens09 Naresh Kumar & Co. 11 Dynamic Cables Pvt. Ltd. 15 Secure Meters Ltd. 19 CESC Ltd. 21 Tata Power Delhi Distribution Ltd. 33 Uttar Gujarat Vij Company Ltd. 35 Therapeutics Chemical Research Corporation41 AKA Logistics Pvt. Ltd. 47 Convergence India 201849 Desein Pvt. Ltd. 51 PTC India Ltd. 56 8th World Renewable Energy Technology CongressBack Inside CPU Recommended EventsBack Outside Tata Power

ADVERTISERS

FeaturedARTICLES03

Section

12 Forecasting Daily Power Generation of Solar PlantsAuthor: Abhik Kumar Das(Founding Member-Del2Infinity Energy Consulting)

26 Electricity Pricing: Re-Thinking Policy for Paradigm ShiftAuthor: D. Radhakrishna (Director-Deeaar Group)

36 The Use of Innovative Groundwater Seepage DetectionTechniquesAuthor: Dr. Andy Hughes(Director of Dams & Water Resources, Atkins Fellow, Visiting Professor in Dam Engineering - BristolUniversity, Chairman- British Dam SocietyInfrastructure)

02 Looking Forward to 10th India Power Awards 05 Post-Event Coverage: Seminar on Future of Dam

Leakage Detection Systems28 CPU Welcomes New Subscribers29 India Power Journal Subscription FormBack Inside CPU Recommended Events

02Section Activities of the

COUNCIL

44 NTPC Installs India's Largest Floating Solar PV Plant

45 BHEL Looks to Provide From Power Sector to Transportation, Electric Vehicles

52 Funding of New Investment, Bad Loans are Big Concerns: Naresh Takkar-ICRA

53 Canadian Solar Signs PPAs for 80MW in India

54 In Virgina: Push for Pumped Storage Hydro, Questions Arise about Viability

57 Are Opportunities Increasing in the Renewable Energy Sector

32 Cabinet Approves The Investment Proposal for Generation Component of Arun-III Hydro Electric Project in Nepal by SJVN Ltd.

42 Tata Power Touches Over 5 Lakh Lives through various CSR Initiatives for Holistic Development of Communities

50 Sikkim Becomes 22nd State to join UDAY

PRESS RELEASES

Govt.DIARIES04

Section

04 Innovate to Bring Down Cost of Power:Shri Piyush Goyal

10 Plans For '24x7 Power For All' In True Spirit ofCooperative Federalism-Piyush Goyal

16 J&K, Punjab Ink Historic Agreement onWater Power Sharing

20 Govt. to Extend Sops For Mega Power Policy Projects by 5 Years

30 REC To Be Premier Power Sector Financing & Development Enterprise by 2020

40 India Expresses Willingness to Support Bangladesh in Renewable Energy Sector

48 Power Ministry Planning on New Hydropower Policy

NEWS22 Africa's Green Energy Challenge: Mega Projects, Off-Grid or

Somewhere in Between ?34 Amendments to Mega Power Policy '09 Gives Breather to Banks

News &PRESS RELEASES05

Section

EditorC.V.J VarmaAssociate EditorTanushree SharmaEditorial Office415, Jaina Tower III,4th Floor, A1 Block,Janakpuri New Delhi-110058Tel: +91-11-25618472Fax: +91-11-25611622Email: [email protected],[email protected]: www.indiapower.org

Design & Printed byMadysin Design

Email: [email protected]

Call @ 9873288860,011-45637840

Official Journal of Council of Power UtilitiesThe statements and opinions expressed in this Journal are not necessarily those of Council of Power Utilities. All communication regarding the Journal may be addressed to Editorial Office.© 2016 India PowerReproduction permitted with due acknowledgements

Article Article

FORECASTING DAILY POWERGENERATION OF SOLAR PLANT

energy generators and the commercial settlement was VARIABILITY IN SOLAR POWER GENERATIONintroduced in Indian context by CERC through Indian The variability and unpredictability inherent to solar power Electricity Grid Code (IEGC), 2010 [8] and the Renewable generation raise a number of issues associated with grid Regulatory Fund mechanism [9] was envisaged to be integration. Sometimes we over-simplify the variability and implemented from January 1, 2011. Due to various uncertainty and believe these two quantities as of similar implementation issues, the mechanism was never made nature. But the variability of solar power represents the operational.To develop an implementable framework, CERC change of generation output due to fluctuations of solar on 31.03.2015 issued a draft Amendments.To develop an insolation and other weather parameters and uncertainty in implementable framework, CERC also issued 2nd power generation describes the inability to predict in amendment to regulation for Deviation settlement advance the changes in generation output.mechanism and other related matters [10]. After CERC

Solar power generation is variable in nature and can be regulation, Forum of Regulators (FOR) [11] and other state measured in a simple manner using inequality of power regulators issued or drafted regulation related to the generation and Lorenz curve [4] and the irregularities in the forecasting and scheduling of Wind and Solar power generation patterns can be interpreted using the Gini generation. coefficient of power fluctuation.The power fluctuation can

Hence CERC, FOR and other state regulations propose the create the ramping events [5] in generation patterns and mandatory requirement of forecasting the solar power can affect the dependability of the power system.Due to generation. If the error in scheduling the power is more than ramping issues, large scale solar integration into the grid a certain limit, then there exists a penalty due to deviation, involves power system modelling and analytic thinking but for solar power forecasting 8 Intraday revisions (one using short term and long term forecast of variable power revision in every 1 hour 30 minutes) are allowed. This generation to ensure that the facility does not create revision is in force from 4th time-block (1 time block = 15 reliability issues in the electricity grid [6].minutes) onwards.Here the revisions are not compulsory,

Though some stakeholders considers that the application of but revision is useful to tune the forecast accuracy.energy storage in solar power generation can remove the need of forecasting in solar power generation, but the FORECAST METHODOLOGYOF SOLAR energy storage can simply reduce the variability of solar POWER GENERATIONpower generation; but cannot reduce the uncertainty in The most functional and conventional strategies in F&S solar force generation. power generation are predicting the weather parameters

using of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and The variability and unpredictability inherent to solar energy changing the values of weather parameters into power generation create a threat to grid reliability due to balancing generation using the PV modules.The algorithms of ANN challenge in load and generation.The unscheduled (Artificial Neural Network) based methodologies have fluctuations of solar generation produce ramping events produced a vast scope in forecasting the power and thus the integration of significant solar energy into the generations.ANN is not a simple statistical model, the existing supply system is a challenge for large scale formalization of dynamic behavior can be measured renewable energy penetration.To accommodate the through ANN based architecture which produce an variability, the day-ahead and short-term renewable energy additional scope.Since F&S can be seen as a statistical rather forecasting is needed to effectively integrate renewable than finding deterministic solutions from computational energy to the existing grid and hence the prediction and viewpoint, forecasting is best seen as the study of the scheduling of wind and solar energy generation has temporal development of probability distributions become a widely pursued area of research in Indian context a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i a b l e s i n t h e p o w e r [6, 7].generation.Forecasting with proper uncertainty analysis is involved since the initial value vector and the neural F&S REGULATIONarchitecture of DNN can never be precisely defined and The Forecasting and Scheduling (F&S) of variable renewable there are observational limitations in different variables energy (Solar and Wind) generation are an essential required to anticipate the power generation. Without necessity of the stable grid system due to the balancing proper forecasting models considering non-linear dynamics challenge in load and generation.Since the system approaches, a small but appreciable fraction of error can operators in India have to do curtailment of variable create a large error due to temporal evolution. renewable energy due to intermittency and variability of the

wind and solar power generation, the forecasting takes an Though the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) model important part in producing a sustainable solution for shows an average prediction of solar power generation, the maximum use of renewable energy. recent technological advancement of DNN (Deep Neural

Network) has created a vast scope in forecasting solar powerThe concept of forecasting and scheduling of renewable

Abhik Kumar DasDel2infinity Energy Consulting

Abhik holds a Dual Degree (B. Tech in Electronics & Electrical Communication Engineering & M. Tech in Automation and Computer Vision) from Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India. He has a vast experience in computational modelling of complex systems. He has contributed in different verticals of analytical modelling related to renewable energy, energy analytics, techno-economics and published several well-cited research articles in internationally recognized journals and peer-reviewed conferences. He is founding member of del2infinity, an accurate Wind Energy & Solar Energy Forecasting and Scheduling Solutions Company.(E-mail: [email protected]).

Due to the present socioeconomic development in India, the demand of energy has multiplied manifold and this demand can be no longer satisfied by the traditional energy sources. Hence the renewable energy is being considered as a transformative solution to satisfy energy demand as well as economic challenges.For a sustainable energy future, not only the energy demand, butthe amount of emission of pollutants from traditional energy generation is an important factor; and considering National Action Plan on Climate Change [1], Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) [2], renewable energy (RE) goals [3], India's national policies and other initiatives encourage renewable and clean energy for various applications.

At present, India has a target of 175 Giga Watt (GW) of installed capacity from renewable energy by 2022, of which 100GW is to come from solar, 60GW from wind [3].Taking India as an emerging place to set up solar businesses with international and domestic investors, the 100 GW target in Solar can not be seen as unrealistic or over-ambitious and the solar power generation shows a promising future in India.Simply due to the variability and intermittency, large scale renewable energy penetration in existing grid is a challenge and the proper policy and regulatory mechanisms, technical solutions and institutional structures are central topics in solar energy penetration.

India Power | April - June 2017 13India Power | April - June 201712

Article Article

FORECASTING DAILY POWERGENERATION OF SOLAR PLANT

energy generators and the commercial settlement was VARIABILITY IN SOLAR POWER GENERATIONintroduced in Indian context by CERC through Indian The variability and unpredictability inherent to solar power Electricity Grid Code (IEGC), 2010 [8] and the Renewable generation raise a number of issues associated with grid Regulatory Fund mechanism [9] was envisaged to be integration. Sometimes we over-simplify the variability and implemented from January 1, 2011. Due to various uncertainty and believe these two quantities as of similar implementation issues, the mechanism was never made nature. But the variability of solar power represents the operational.To develop an implementable framework, CERC change of generation output due to fluctuations of solar on 31.03.2015 issued a draft Amendments.To develop an insolation and other weather parameters and uncertainty in implementable framework, CERC also issued 2nd power generation describes the inability to predict in amendment to regulation for Deviation settlement advance the changes in generation output.mechanism and other related matters [10]. After CERC

Solar power generation is variable in nature and can be regulation, Forum of Regulators (FOR) [11] and other state measured in a simple manner using inequality of power regulators issued or drafted regulation related to the generation and Lorenz curve [4] and the irregularities in the forecasting and scheduling of Wind and Solar power generation patterns can be interpreted using the Gini generation. coefficient of power fluctuation.The power fluctuation can

Hence CERC, FOR and other state regulations propose the create the ramping events [5] in generation patterns and mandatory requirement of forecasting the solar power can affect the dependability of the power system.Due to generation. If the error in scheduling the power is more than ramping issues, large scale solar integration into the grid a certain limit, then there exists a penalty due to deviation, involves power system modelling and analytic thinking but for solar power forecasting 8 Intraday revisions (one using short term and long term forecast of variable power revision in every 1 hour 30 minutes) are allowed. This generation to ensure that the facility does not create revision is in force from 4th time-block (1 time block = 15 reliability issues in the electricity grid [6].minutes) onwards.Here the revisions are not compulsory,

Though some stakeholders considers that the application of but revision is useful to tune the forecast accuracy.energy storage in solar power generation can remove the need of forecasting in solar power generation, but the FORECAST METHODOLOGYOF SOLAR energy storage can simply reduce the variability of solar POWER GENERATIONpower generation; but cannot reduce the uncertainty in The most functional and conventional strategies in F&S solar force generation. power generation are predicting the weather parameters

using of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and The variability and unpredictability inherent to solar energy changing the values of weather parameters into power generation create a threat to grid reliability due to balancing generation using the PV modules.The algorithms of ANN challenge in load and generation.The unscheduled (Artificial Neural Network) based methodologies have fluctuations of solar generation produce ramping events produced a vast scope in forecasting the power and thus the integration of significant solar energy into the generations.ANN is not a simple statistical model, the existing supply system is a challenge for large scale formalization of dynamic behavior can be measured renewable energy penetration.To accommodate the through ANN based architecture which produce an variability, the day-ahead and short-term renewable energy additional scope.Since F&S can be seen as a statistical rather forecasting is needed to effectively integrate renewable than finding deterministic solutions from computational energy to the existing grid and hence the prediction and viewpoint, forecasting is best seen as the study of the scheduling of wind and solar energy generation has temporal development of probability distributions become a widely pursued area of research in Indian context a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i a b l e s i n t h e p o w e r [6, 7].generation.Forecasting with proper uncertainty analysis is involved since the initial value vector and the neural F&S REGULATIONarchitecture of DNN can never be precisely defined and The Forecasting and Scheduling (F&S) of variable renewable there are observational limitations in different variables energy (Solar and Wind) generation are an essential required to anticipate the power generation. Without necessity of the stable grid system due to the balancing proper forecasting models considering non-linear dynamics challenge in load and generation.Since the system approaches, a small but appreciable fraction of error can operators in India have to do curtailment of variable create a large error due to temporal evolution. renewable energy due to intermittency and variability of the

wind and solar power generation, the forecasting takes an Though the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) model important part in producing a sustainable solution for shows an average prediction of solar power generation, the maximum use of renewable energy. recent technological advancement of DNN (Deep Neural

Network) has created a vast scope in forecasting solar powerThe concept of forecasting and scheduling of renewable

Abhik Kumar DasDel2infinity Energy Consulting

Abhik holds a Dual Degree (B. Tech in Electronics & Electrical Communication Engineering & M. Tech in Automation and Computer Vision) from Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India. He has a vast experience in computational modelling of complex systems. He has contributed in different verticals of analytical modelling related to renewable energy, energy analytics, techno-economics and published several well-cited research articles in internationally recognized journals and peer-reviewed conferences. He is founding member of del2infinity, an accurate Wind Energy & Solar Energy Forecasting and Scheduling Solutions Company.(E-mail: [email protected]).

Due to the present socioeconomic development in India, the demand of energy has multiplied manifold and this demand can be no longer satisfied by the traditional energy sources. Hence the renewable energy is being considered as a transformative solution to satisfy energy demand as well as economic challenges.For a sustainable energy future, not only the energy demand, butthe amount of emission of pollutants from traditional energy generation is an important factor; and considering National Action Plan on Climate Change [1], Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) [2], renewable energy (RE) goals [3], India's national policies and other initiatives encourage renewable and clean energy for various applications.

At present, India has a target of 175 Giga Watt (GW) of installed capacity from renewable energy by 2022, of which 100GW is to come from solar, 60GW from wind [3].Taking India as an emerging place to set up solar businesses with international and domestic investors, the 100 GW target in Solar can not be seen as unrealistic or over-ambitious and the solar power generation shows a promising future in India.Simply due to the variability and intermittency, large scale renewable energy penetration in existing grid is a challenge and the proper policy and regulatory mechanisms, technical solutions and institutional structures are central topics in solar energy penetration.

India Power | April - June 2017 13India Power | April - June 201712

generation with high accuracy. The dynamic modelling and probabilistic evolution of physical variables important for solar power generation creates scenario based forecasting strategy unlike of predicting the deterministic forecast with fixed path.

A good forecasting system is a process which gives proper accuracy with minimum penalty due to deviation even in a small capacity of solar plants with high variability with minimum number of Intraday revisions. Unnecessary submission of an Intraday revision in every one or two hours not only stands for the inefficiency of forecasting algorithm, but also symbolizes the lack of availability of proper pattern recognition algorithm in forecast models and it moves the grid management increasing the indirect cost of grid stability.

Though numerous models are available using different methodologies, a good forecast must capture the genuine patterns which exist in the historical data, but do not replicate past events that will not occur again. Though there is a paucity of historical data and the data related to weather parameters of different solar plants in India, but the del2infinity's AI based solution can be used for forecasting and scheduling solution which can minimize the penalty due to present regulation with minimum number of revisions and can work even when there is unscheduled variability. As an example, the figure shows the forecast of a 40 MW plant with Single revision, the AI based algorithm is useful to forecast the pattern of fluctuations with acceptable accuracy,

Article

Fig 1.Forecast of Solar Power generation in a Cloudy day with Single revision

The challenge lies in forecasting the solar power generation in a variable environment with minimum number of Intraday revision such that the forecast solution has good accuracy with a minimum value of the penalty due to the deviation. The proposed regulation tells about the aggregated forecast and maximum 8 times Intraday revision, but the forecast community should not confine themselves in this regulation, but researchers must try to forecast even in smaller capacity plants with high vriability and with less number of Intraday revision for better efficiency of the forecast process.

• Das Abhik Kumar, 'Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and ReferencesSolar Power generation in India', NTPC's Third International • N a t i o n a l A c t i o n P l a n o n C l i m a t e C h a n g e , G O I technology Summit 'Global Energy Technology Summit' 2016(http://www.moef.nic.in/downloads/home/Pg01-52.pdf last

• Indian Electricity Grid Code, Central Electricity Regulatory visited on 20 March 2017)Commission, 2010 (http://cercind.gov.in/2010/ORDER/• I N D I A ' S I N T E N D E D N AT I O N A L LY D E T E R M I N E D February2010/IEGC_Review_Proposal.pdf last visited on 20 CONTRIBUTION: WORKING TOWARDS CLIMATE JUSTICE March 2017)(http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20D

• Procedure for implementation of the mechanism of ocuments/India/1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdflaRenewable Regulatory Fund , Central Electricity Regulatory st visited on 20 March 2017) C o m m i s s i o n , 2 0 1 1 ( h t t p : / / w w w . c e r c i n d . g o v .• Report of the Expert Group on 175 GW RE by 2022, NITI Aayog, in/Regulations/Detailed_Procedure_IEGC.pdf last visited on G O I ( h t t p : / / n i t i . g o v. i n / w r i t e r e a d d a t a / f i l e s / w r i t e20 March 2017)readdata/files/document_publication/report-175-GW-

• Framework on Forecasting, Scheduling and Imbalance RE.pdf last visited on 20 March 2017)Handling for Variable Renewable Energy Sources (Wind and • Das Abhik Kumar, “Quantifying photovoltaic power Solar), Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, variability using Lorenz curve”, Journal of Renewable and (http://www.cercind.gov.in/2015/regulation/SOR7.pdf last Sustainable Energy, AIP, vol.6 (3), June 2014visited on 20 March 2017)

• Das Abhik Kumar et a.l “An Empirical Model for Ramp Analysis • Model Regulations on Forecasting, Scheduling and Deviation of Utility-Scale Solar PV Power”, , Solar Energy, Elsevier, vol.

Settlement of Wind and Solar Generating Stations at the State 107, pp. 44-49, September 2014l e v e l ( h t t p : / / w w w . f o r u m o f r e g u l a t o r s .

• Steffel, S.J., 2010. Distribution grid considerations for large gov.in/Data/study/MR.pdf last visited on 20 March 2017 )scale solar and wind installations. IEEE, 1–3, Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition, 2010 IEEE PES

India Power | April - June 201714