Page 1 ROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D. U.S. Daily Market Forecasting and Trading Report An Educational Publication of Main Line Investors, Inc. P.O. Box 127 Issue No. 4219 Email Address: BART, PA 17503 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 [email protected]KEY TRENDFINDER INDICATORS FOR THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14th, 2021 For Blue Chip Stock Indices ( Dow Industrials and S&P 500): Short-term Trend: Purchasing Power Indicator on a Buy Intermediate-term Trend: Secondary Trend Indicator on a Buy Long Term Trend: Primary Trend Indicator on a Buy Note: The above Indicators are the most important and reliable trend identifiers for Blue Chip Stocks in this Re- port. All other commentary and analysis is supplementary, early warning, or over-the-horizon risk study. This Report is for educational purposes only. Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not acting as the read- er’s investment Advisor. We suggest you consult with your financial advisor before investing or trading. Current Short-term Psychological Sentiment of the U.S. Stock Market Note: Derived from the Combination of three short-term Indicators, the Purchasing Power Indicator Buy, the 30 Day Stochastic Buy, and the 14 Day Stochastic Buy (See pages 3 and 13) Positive Inspiraon Corner: See Page 59-62 Psalm 91 God’s Protection against Pestilence. Today’s Market Comments Our Executive Summary Market Comments appear on pages 7 through 10. “Let not your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father’s house are many mansions; if that were not so, I would have told you, because I am going there to pre- pare a place for you. And if I go and prepare a place for you, I am coming again and will take you to Myself, so that where I am, there you also will be. And you know the way where I am going.” Thomas said to Him, “Lord, we do not know where You are going; how do we know the way?” Jesus said to him, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life; no one comes to the Father except through Me.” John 14:1-6
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Page 1
ROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D.
U.S. Daily Market Forecasting and Trading Report
An Educational Publication of Main Line Investors, Inc.
KEY TRENDFINDER INDICATORS FOR THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14th, 2021
For Blue Chip Stock Indices ( Dow Industrials and S&P 500):
Short-term Trend: Purchasing Power Indicator on a Buy
Intermediate-term Trend: Secondary Trend Indicator on a Buy
Long Term Trend: Primary Trend Indicator on a Buy
Note: The above Indicators are the most important and reliable trend identifiers for Blue Chip Stocks in this Re-
port. All other commentary and analysis is supplementary, early warning, or over-the-horizon risk study. This
Report is for educational purposes only. Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not acting as the read-er’s investment Advisor. We suggest you consult with your financial advisor before investing or trading.
Current Short-term Psychological Sentiment of the U.S. Stock Market
Note: Derived from the Combination of three short-term Indicators, the Purchasing Power Indicator Buy,
the 30 Day Stochastic Buy, and the 14 Day Stochastic Buy (See pages 3 and 13)
Positive
Inspiration Corner: See Page 59-62 Psalm 91 God’s Protection against Pestilence.
Today’s Market Comments
Our Executive Summary Market Comments appear on pages 7 through 10.
“Let not your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father’s house are
many mansions; if that were not so, I would have told you, because I am going there to pre-
pare a place for you. And if I go and prepare a place for you, I am coming again and will take
you to Myself, so that where I am, there you also will be. And you know the way where I am
going.” Thomas said to Him, “Lord, we do not know where You are going; how do we know
the way?” Jesus said to him, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life; no one comes to the
Father except through Me.”
John 14:1-6
Page 2
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
What You Get with a PLATINUM Trading Subscription to Our Services:
Platinum Elite Membership:
Both Options and Exchange Traded Funds Trade Idea Alerts!
• A minimum of 15 to 30 Trend Trade Ideas Plus 25 to 50 Day Trades per year, where we communicate to you the details of our trades, within 15 minutes of when we conduct them on a best efforts basis
• Complete access to all of our Standard Subscription Services
• Education Product for Members where we answer email questions about market conditions and our trades, especially helpful to individuals who are new at trading, or trading stock index options
• An extra 3 months free added to the term selected for individuals who are new to options trading and want to learn by paper trading our trade alert ideas.
• We play both rising and falling markets and primarily trade options on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or the Exchange Traded Funds directly, for major stock market Indices, Gold, Silver, and Mining Stock indices, such as SPY, DIA, QQQ, RUT, GLD, SLV, and GDX. This is intended to be an impersonal, educational product. Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not to be considered the reader’s investment advisor. Please consult your Investment Advisor before Trading.
• On occasion, we send out emails intraday, commenting on intraday market price action as it relates to trading and the price/time patterns we see occurring in markets at that particular time.
Email us at [email protected] for more information, questions, or a disclosure form to join.
You get a credit for the unused portion of your standard subscription when you upgrade to Platinum.
Platinum OPTIONS / ETF TRADING
9 Months for Just $695!
Plus Day Trades, an Added Value Service to our current program
Starting May 1st, 2021, we are excited to let you know that we have added Day Trading to the Platinum
membership, at no additional charge, where we will mix in about 25 to 50 day trades per year, trading
options. This is in addition to the minimum of 15 to 30 longer term trades per year the Platinum pro-
gram has been offering in the past. The Day Trades have an expected life of from 1 to 5 days, where-
as our longer-term Platinum Options Trades have an expected life of from 2 weeks to 3 months or
longer.
Our Day Trading program is designed to identify high probability overbought and oversold levels on
a short-term basis that can lead to high probability profit potential based upon small price moves in
either direction. Dollars at risk played will be lower due to the expected speed of these moves, but
with more frequent trades, we hope to generate meaningful additional income. Feel free to Email us
• Access to our Long-term investing horizon Primary Trend Indicator
• Daily Executive Summary Emails providing key forecast indicator results, and full analysis of the day’s activity
• Access to our Educational Conservative Portfolio Model
• Charts covering Technical Market Patterns and Elliott Waves
• Cycle analysis of possible important market turn dates, including our Phi Mate Turn dates, Bradley model turn dates, and Fibonacci price/time targets
• Occasional Mid-day Market Comment Emails
• Access to our Closed Platinum Trades Archives • Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not to be considered the reader’s investment advisor.
Please consult your Investment Advisor before Trading or investing.
Standard Membership
** 13 Months for $169 **
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Simply go to www.technicalindicatorindex.com and
click on either the Subscribe Today or Renew Today button
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Subscribe, Renew or Extend your present membership!
To Pay by Check: Simply mail a check payable to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 127,
BART, PA 17503 Please include your email address (which is your User ID) so we can apply
Our Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator generated a Buy Signal October 14th,
2021, and remains there October 14th, 2021.
There is a Huge Bearish divergence developing between the S&P 500 and its Demand
Power measure, warning a major top and significant decline is approaching.
In addition to Buy and Sell signals, another feature from this indicator is we can get
an early warning of a trend reversal when we see the Demand Power and Supply Pres-
sure Indicators start to converge measurably.
For information on how to use this indicator, go to the Glossary at the end of this report.
380.0
430.0
480.0
530.0
3200
3500
3800
4100
4400
7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21
S&P 500 vs: Demand Power & Supply Pressure July 2021 to October 2021
S&P 500
When Demand Power Crosses 10 Pts above the Supply Pressure Line, we get a Buy Signal.
When Supply Pressure rises 10 Points above Demand Power, we get a Sell Signal.Exit signals occur when DP or SP lines return to intersection after an entry signal.
Buy SignalSell Signal The S&P 500 is Overbought around positive
+ 30 and oversold around -30.
S&P STI
Overbought
Oversold
Bearish Divergence
SellSignal
7.16.21
BuySignal
3.26.21
SellSignal
6.18.21
BuySignal
6.24.21Buy
Signal8.11.21
SellSignal
8.18.21
BuySignal
8.24.21
Sell'Signal9.20.21
BuySignal
9.22.21
SUMMARY OF TODAY’S & PAST WEEK’S TRADING INDICATOR STATISTICS
Blue Chips S&P 500 / DJIA / NYSE
Purchasing
Date Power Indicator Interpretation
Oct 7 Up 5 to + 16.35
Oct 8 Down 1 to + 15.71
Oct 11 Down 2 to + 13.29
Oct 12 Down 1 to + 12.65
Oct 13 Up 1 to + 13.93
Oct 14 Up 9 to + 23.06
30 Day Stochastic 14 Day Stochastic
Date Fast Slow Fast Slow Interpretation
Oct 7 40.00 32.67 80.00 43.33
Oct 8 36.67 33.33 73.33 51.67
Oct 11 33.33 34.67 53.33 55.00
Oct 12 33.33 35.33 36.67 56.11
Oct 13 36.67 36.00 33.33 55.56
Oct 14 53.33 38.67 66.67 57.22
Demand Supply
Date Power Pressure Interpretation
Oct 7 Up 10 to 428 Down 9 to 439
Oct 8 Down 2 to 426 Down 1 to 438
Oct 11 Down 5 to 421 Up 3 to 441
Oct 12 Flat 0 at 421 Down 3 to 438
Oct 13 Up 3 to 424 Down 5 to 433
Oct 14 Up 17 to 441 Down 10 to 423
Secondary Interpretation
Date Trend Indicator
Oct 7 Up 6 to + 11
Oct 8 Down 2 to + 9
Oct 11 Down 5 to + 4
Oct 12 Down 1 to + 3
Oct 13 Up 6 to + 9
Oct 14 Up 6 to + 15
Page 14
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The PPI must rise more than 6 points above its recent low to
trigger a new buy signal, and must fall more than 6 points below
it recent high to trigger a new sell signal.
The PPI Must fall below positive + 17.06 for a new Sell Signal.
The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below
the Slow for a new “sell,” or the Fast has to rise
more than 10 points above the Slow for a new buy.
The Demand Power Indicator Needs to Rise more
than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator
for a new buy signal, or the Supply Pressure
Indicator must rise more than 10 points above the
Demand Power Indicator for a new Sell Signal.
Crossovers less than 10 points are Neutral Signals.
Above positive + 5 is Bullish, a Buy signal. Below negative –5 is
Bearish, a Sell signal. While a move above zero is a good indication
of a coming rising trend, and below zero is a good indication of a
coming declining trend, for best trading results, it is better to wait for
this indicator to move above positive + 5 or below negative –5. The
closer it moves toward zero, the greater the risk of a coming trend
turn. Readings near positive + 30 show overbought market conditions
And near negative –30 indicate an oversold market condition.
Blue Chip Stock Background Stock Trend Indicators
For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500
(Used to Evaluate the Age of Current Trends)
McClellan Oscillator
(+300 Extreme Overbought/-300 Extreme Oversold)
10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator
(+800 Extreme Overbought/-800 Extreme Oversold)
Plunge Protection Team Indicator *
A rise above positive + 20.0 or a drop below negative –16.0 triggers a new “buy” signal. On the other hand, declines
can (don’t have to) occur when this reading falls within the range of negative –16.00 to positive + 20.00.
Next Phi Mate Turn Date December 6th, 2021 +/- a few days
Next Bradley Model Turn Date November 6th, 2021 +/- a few days
Page 15
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Key NYSE Internal Strength Statistics for Thursday, October 14th:
Volume as % 10 Day Average
Points % Up
Points % Down
New 52 Week Highs
New 52 Week Lows
Advancing Issues
Declining Issues
Advancing Issues %
Declining Issues %
Volume % Up
Volume % Down
Closing Trin
10 Day Avg. Trin
Today
+ 157.0
+ 450.5
- 0.2
Yesterday
+ 77.9
+ 178.1
+ 2.5
Today
96%
98
2%
156
23
2554
760
77%
23%
97%
3%
0.95
0.91
Yesterday
94%
73
27%
71
35
2023
1239
62%
38%
58%
42%
1.12
0.95
Page 16
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Summary of McHugh’s Proprietary Index Key Trend-finder Buy/Sell Signals
Index Term Signal Date Current Signal
DJIA Purchasing Power Indic DJIA Short Buy October 7th, 2021
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic DJIA Short Sell October 12th, 2021
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic DJIA Short Buy September 23rd, 2021
Demand Power /Supply Pressure S&P Short Buy October 14th, 2021
NYSE 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic S&P Short Buy October 5th, 2021
Secondary Trend Indicator DJIA Intermediate Buy September 22nd, 2021
NDX Purchase Power Indic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy October 14th, 2021
NDX 14 Day Stochastic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy October 7th, 2021
NDX 30 Day Stochastic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy October 14th, 2021
NDX 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic NDX Short Buy October 5th, 2021
Demand Power /Supply Pressure NDX Short Neutral October 14th, 2021
RUT Purchasing Power Indic RUT Short Buy October 14th, 2021
RUT 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic RUT Short Buy October 14th, 2021
HUI Purchasing Power Indic HUI Short Buy October 7th, 2021
HUI 30 Day Stochastic HUI Short Buy October 7th, 2021
HUI Purchasing Power Indic $GOLD Short Buy October 7th, 2021
HUI 30 Day Stochastic $GOLD Short Buy October 7th, 2021
HUI Demand Power /Supply Pressure HUI Short Buy October 14th, 2021
Plunge Protection Team Indic DJIA Short OFF Apr 27th, 2020
Primary Trend Indicator S&P 500 Long Buy November 30th, 2020
“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me
shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.
For I have come down from heaven,
For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds
the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;
and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”
John 6: 35, 38, 40
Page 17
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Technology Stock Trends Signals
(For the NASDAQ 100)
Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 Week to 1 Month — Hourly and Daily Traders):
(Sideways (Sideways
Young, More Trend Likely,
Maturing, More Trend Possible
or Old) or Approaching End)
Buy or Sell Date of NDX Age of Signal’s Status
Indicator Name Signal Signal @ Signal Signal Interpretation
NDX Purchasing Power
Indicator: Buy 10/14/21 15,052.42 Young More Trend Likely
30 Day Stochastic
Indicator: Buy 10/14/21 15,052.42 Young More Trend Likely
14 Day Stochastic
Indicator: Buy 10/07/21 14,897.13 Young More Trend Likely
Note: We Like to Consider the above 3 Indicators together to confirm a new trend. If all three are in agreement, that con-firms a new trend. If any one has a different signal than the others, that suggests a sideways move is occurring, or a trend turn is in process.
Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 3 Months — Daily Traders):
(Trend Turning) (Trend Turning)
Young, More Trend Likely,
Maturing, More Trend Possible
Neutral, or Old) or Approaching End)
Buy or Sell Date of NDX Age of Signal’s Status
Indicator Name Signal Signal @ Signal Signal Interpretation
When Demand Power Crosses above the Supply Pressure Line by 10 points, we get aBuy Signal. When Supply Pressure rises above Demand Power by 10 points, we get a Sell Signal. Exit Signals occur when DP or SP lines return to intersecttion after an entry signal.
We got an Sell Signal 9/28/21
BuySignal
7.21.21 EnterLong
8.24.21
SellSignal
8.17.21
SellSignal
9.20.21
BuySignal
9.24.21
SellSignal
9.28.21
Key Russell 2000 Internal Strength Statistics for Thursday, October 14th, 2021:
Volume as % 10 Day Avg.
Advancing Issues
Declining Issues
Advancing Issues %
Declining Issues %
Volume % Up
Volume % Down
10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator
(+500 Extreme Overbought/-500 Extreme Oversold)
Page 22
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Small Cap Stock Trends Signals
(For the RUSSELL 2000)
Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 Weeks — Hourly and Daily Traders):
(Young, (More Trend Likely)
Maturing, More Trend Possible
or Old) or Approaching End)
Buy or Sell Date of RUT Age of Signal’s Status
Indicator Name Signal Signal @ Signal Signal Interpretation
RUT Purchasing Power
Indicator: Buy 10/14/21 2274.18 Young More Trend Likely
Purchasing
Date Power Indicator
Oct 8 Down 2 to + 200.31
Oct 11 Down 1 to + 199.29
Oct 12 Up 1 to + 200.58
Oct 13 Up 1 to + 201.14
Oct 14 Up 1 to + 202.28
The RUT PPI Needs to Fall Below + 196.28 for a New Sell
Today
102%
1479
446
77%
23%
66%
34%
+ 217.0
Yesterday
93%
986
934
52%
48%
67%
33%
+ 46.1
Page 23
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator
The RUT Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy signal Thursday,
October 14th. They fell sharply after the Sell signal in June 2021.
Small caps rose sharply after the Buy signal on September 28th, 2020,
rose sharply after a buy signal on July 15th, 2020, and dropped sharply after
our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell signal in Febru-
ary and again in March 2020.
The Purchasing Power Indicator is a momentum indicator that tells us di-
rectional momentum is strong enough to follow through in that same direction.
It is designed to avoid false breakouts, or is designed to identify high momen-
tum reversals quickly after they occur.
170.00
210.00
250.00
1600.00
1800.00
2000.00
2200.00
2400.00
2600.00
7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21
Russell 2000 Purchasing Power IndicatorPPI is a Short-term Momentum Measure of Purchasing Power, Generating Buy and Sell
Signals When Changes Suggest Sustainable Multi-week Moves are Likely.RUT PPI
Sell Signal
Buy SignalOctober 14th, 2021's RUT PPI is + 202.28
PPI
RUT
A Buy Signal Was Registered on 10/14/2021
Needs 196.28 for a Sell Signal.
Page 24
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Russell 2000 versus its 10 day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator
(Bullish or Bearish Divergences)
The Russell 2000 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator generated a Buy
signal October 5th, 2021, and small caps have decline sharply since that Sell signal.
A recent Bearish Divergence led to a decline in the Russell 2000.
Some History of this indicator’s performance:
After the January 29th, 2020 Sell signal, the stock market crashed. After the July 19th,
2019 Sell signal, small caps fell sharply. The RUT formed a large and growing Bearish
divergence with its 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator during June and
July 2019, warning a strong stock market decline is approaching. That decline oc-
curred late July into early August.
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1350.00
1550.00
1750.00
1950.00
2150.00
2350.00
2550.00
7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21
RUT 10 Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line vs. the Russell 2000
Bullish Divergence Bearish Divergence
Oftentimes Trend Reversals are Forewarned By Bullish and Bearish DivergencesBetween the NYSE 10 Day MA Adv/Dec Line and the Prices of of Equities.
A Rise above 180 is a Buy signal and a drop below -180 is a Sell Signal.
HUI 10 Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line vs. the HUI
Bullish DivergenceBearish Divergence
Oftentimes Trend Reversals are Forewarned By Bullish and Bearish DivergencesBetween the HUI 10 Day MA Adv/Dec Line and the Prices of of HUI Mining Stocks.
When Demand Power Crosses above the Supply Pressure Line by 10 points, we get a
Buy Signal. When Supply Pressure rises above Demand Power by 10 points, we get a Sell Signal. Exit Signals occur when DP or SP lines return to intersection after an entry signal.
The HUI Triggered an "Buy Signal" 10/14/21
Bearish Divergence
Bullish Divergence
SellSignal8.6.21
EnterLong
10.14.21
TRADERS CORNER
For Standard and Platinum Subscribers
How Educational Trading is Offered
We offer three Investing/Trading Services. Standard subscribers have access to two of the three. Platinum sub-
scribers have access to all three. Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not to be considered the reader’s
investment advisor. Please consult your Investment Advisor before Trading.
The first Service is our Conservative Portfolio model. This is available to all subscribers. We have six categories
of investments in this model; Cash, U.S. Government Securities, Gold, Buy and Hold, Market Timing, and Speculative.
The details and philosophy can be read at the Conservative Portfolio model button at the left of the home page. Our goal
with this portfolio is to beat the S&P 500 while generating positive returns over the long run with low risk investments
and trading strategies. In other words, we do not want to lose money in any one year, yet over a five year period, want to
have returns far in excess of the S&P 500. Since its inception in 2008, we have achieved these goals.
The Second Service is our Market Timing Transactions: Available to all Standard and Platinum subscribers, we
conduct approximately 5 to 10 ETF or Leveraged ETF trades per year, using our Secondary Trend Indicator, and other
key Indicators to generate returns of 5 to 10 percent per trade, have 70 percent or more of our trades be successful, with
less than 10 percent of our portfolio at risk at any one time, and with each transaction limited to a maximum risk of 2 per-
cent or our portfolio. These transactions are reported at the Transactions button under the Conservative Portfolio head-
er at the left of the home page. The purpose of this segment is to be a bit more aggressive to enhance overall perfor-
mance of the Conservative Portfolio with overall minimal risk.
The Third Service is our Platinum Trading Service: Available only to Platinum subscribers, we conduct approxi-
mately 15 to 30 Long Options trades (Long means we play markets to rise or fall, but the maximum we can lose is the
amount invested) or Leveraged ETF trades per year, using all trading indicators at our disposal. This is the speculative
segment of our Conservative Portfolio, with total risk at any one time limited to 5 percent of our portfolio. We usually only
have 1 to 10 trades outstanding at any time. These trades are reported at the Platinum Current Trade button at the up-
per left of the home page. Details and philosophy, and past performance, can be accessed at the FAQ and Archives
buttons under the Platinum Header at the upper left of the home page.
On a good faith basis, Trades are emailed to subscribers within 15 minutes of the time we conducted the trans-
actions. We also post details of the trades at the Conservative Transactions button or the Platinum Current Trade button
within 15 minutes of when we conduct them. This is not trading advice, is educational only.
Today’s Trades
Platinum Options Educational Trading Service:
There were 0 trades today, October 14th, 2021.
There are 15 open positions as of today, October 14th, 2021.
Silver ETF Educational Trading Service:
There were 0 trades today, October 14th, 2021.
There are 7 open positions as of today, October 14th, 2021.
Standard Conservative Portfolio Educational Service:
(Includes our Dollar Cost Averaging Educational Program)
There were 0 trades today, October 14th, 2021.
Page 29
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
PLATINUM OPTIONS / ETF TRADERS CORNER
For Platinum Subscribers
Past Performance Summary For Closed Trades
By Year From 2011 through September 30th, 2021
# Closed # Winning % Winning # Losing Net Total Avg. $
Year Trades Trades Trades Trades $ Profits Per Trade
2020/21 153 128 84% 25 $ 237,081 $ 9,122
2020 89 74 83% 15 $ 207,709 $ 12,822
2019 61 50 81% 11 $ 85,905 $ 7,691
2018 65 48 74% 17 $ 53,880 $ 3,803
2017 30 25 83% 5 $ 31,400 $ 5,629
2016 35 31 88% 4 $ 144,736 $ 18,990
2015 26 23 88% 3 $ 28,882 $ 4,229
2014 30 28 93% 2 $ 74,418 $ 12,052
2013 45 39 86% 5 $ 92,470 $ 3,481
2011/12 66 44 67% 22 $ 27,620 $ 1,680
All of the above trades and details can be reviewed at the Archived Trades button at
the upper left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com IT SHOULD NOT BE
ASSUMED THAT TRADE IDEAS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL
EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST
Here is a Performance Summary for the first 10.75 Years of the Program,
From January 1st, 2011 through September 30th, 2021:
# Total Trades 551
# Winning Trades 448
# Losing Trades 103
% Winning Trades 81.3%
Avg. $ Invested Per Trade $7,251
Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $783,741 Profits
“If My People who are called by My name,
Humble themselves and pray, and seek My face
And turn from their wicked ways,
Then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin,
And will heal their land.”
2 Chronicles 7: 13,14
Page 30
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
SILVER ETF Program TRADERS CORNER
For Platinum Subscribers
Past Performance Summary For Closed Trades
From January 1st, 2020 through September 30th, 2021
# Closed # Winning % Winning # Losing Net Total Avg. $
Year Trades Trades Trades Trades $ Profits Per Trade
2021 11 11 100.0% 0 $ 4,604 $ 6,270
2020 32 30 93.8% 2 $ 33,292 $ 7,448
In 2020, our Silver Service ETF Trades generated profits, net of losses, of $33,292 on
closed trades. We price a membership in this service at $795 per year, so for the year 2020,
net profits were 41 times greater than the price of the one year membership.
Our Silver ETF Trading Program, which also includes all of our Standard Newsletter
and Conservative Portfolio Services, is a program for trading the markets using Exchange
Traded Funds, that does not trade Options, as our Platinum program does. This is a more
conservative trading program than Platinum as ETFs do not have expiration dates, and Op-
tions do. The objective of this program is to conduct a high quantity of trades per year that
cumulatively generate strong profits by the end of the year. The upside is not as great as
trading options, but the downside is not as great either. The annualized equivalent return on
these trades is substantial as most trades are not held for long periods of time.
All of the above Exchange Traded Funds trades and details can be reviewed at the Ar-
chived Trades button at the upper left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com
IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT TRADE IDEAS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROF-
ITABLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST. Dr.
McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not to be considered the reader’s investment advi-
sor. Please consult your Investment Advisor before Trading.
Here is a Performance Summary for the first 1.75 Years of the Program,
From January 1st, 2020 through September 30th, 2021:
# Total Trades 43
# Winning Trades 41
# Losing Trades 2
% Winning Trades 95.3%
Avg. $ Invested Per Trade $7,146
Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $37,896 Profits
Page 31
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Page 32
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Above we show the Elliott Wave mapping for this final subwave Cycle de-
gree wave V-up for Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} up, which looks to have
ended. For the first time, since this Rising Bearish Wedge patterns started in
1987, we see a classic “Throwover” for the fifth and final wave (E ). Typically
this pattern does not end until a “throwover” rally occurs in the fifth and final
wave, where prices rise slightly above the upper boundary. This has now oc-
curred, so this pattern can now end.
This is telling us a major top is imminent, whether it occurs in a week or a
few months (since this pattern is almost 35 years in the making, the throwover
can take a few months), it is essentially finished.
Further, the slope of the rally from March 2020 is nearly vertical, also
known as parabolic. Parabolic rallies do not typically end well.
Caution is warranted.
IV
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E ) V, (V), {III}
{IV}
Industrials’ Scenario Where Grand Supercycle
degree wave {III} Up is Finishing.
Jaws of Death Top
Pattern from 2017 is
close to completion, the
end to the Massive Ris-
ing Bearish Wedge from
1986
Typical Throwover
Page 33
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Above is a close-up of the final Megaphone top pattern to conclude Grand
Supercycle degree wave {III} up. It’s completion is imminent.
(C)
E, (D)
C, (E ) V, (V), {III}
A
B
D
C
Industrials’ JAWS OF DEATH PATTERN
from 2017
A
B
Page 34
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Above we see three very dangerous set-ups for the Dow Industrials, and therefore the stock market. A
Rounded top from June 2021, a Head & Shoulders top from June 2021, and the potential for a Dangerous and rare
Dow Theory Bear Market signal, with a drop below the June secondary low, at 33,290. The projected downside tar-
get for the Head & Shoulders pattern suggests the Industrials will drop sharply below 33,290, toward 32,000 at least,
which would trigger the Dow Theory Bear Market signal (with far more downside to follow).
The Transportation average topped on May 7th, 2021 and has been in a sharp decline since. After following
the Trannies decline into June, the Industrials diverged, and rose to a new high on August 16th, 2021, which was not
confirmed by the Trannies (see charts on next page). This non-confirmation was an early warning. If the Industrials
now confirm the Trannies decline with a new low below June’s bottom, below 33,290, the Dow Theory Bear Market
will be in force.
The previous Dow Theory Bear Market signal came on March 9th, 2020, as the crash was getting legs.
Dow Theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven mar-
kets, the basic components of Dow Theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamil-
ton and articulated by Robert Rhea, Dow Theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also
market philosophy.
When Dow Theory was being developed at the turn of the century, the railroads were a vital link in the
economy (today it is airlines, rails, and trucking). Hamilton argued that, in many cases, activity would begin in the
Rail Average before the Industrial Average. He attributed this to the fact that before economic activity began, raw
materials would have to be moved from the suppliers to manufacturers.
A decline below this low,
33,290, will cause a Dangerous
and rare Dow Theory Bear
Market Signal.
Right Shoulder
Head
Left Shoulder
Neckline A Possible Head & Shoul-
ders Top Pattern for the
Industrials, with a Down-
side Price Target of
32,000ish.
A Dangerous Round-
ed Top Pattern for the
Dow Industrials.
Page 35
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The Dow theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: an accumulation phase, a
public participation (or absorption) phase, and a distribution phase. Bottom line; it’s a classic indicator of real selling.
Just before the genesis of a bear market, the weak hands are flushed out. Fast money investors (pros) without deep
investing commitments run for the hills first.
Dow and Hamilton identified three types of price movements for the Dow Jones Industrial and Rail averages:
primary movements, secondary movements and daily fluctuations. Primary moves, which can last from a few
months to many years, represent the broad underlying trend of the market. Secondary (or reaction) movements,
which can last from a few weeks to a few months, move counter to the primary trend. Daily fluctuations can move
with or against the primary trend and last from a few hours to a few days, but usually not more than a week. Prima-
ry moves are Bear and Bull markets.
Hamilton and Dow stressed that, in order for a primary trend buy or sell signal to be valid, both the Industri-
al Average and the Rail Average must confirm each other. If one average records a new high or new low, then the
other must soon follow for a Dow Theory signal to be considered valid.
But like any tool in technical analysis, this is not an infallible signal. There are no guarantees. It is a caution
signal to be considered.
Reference: Stockcharts.com
New High for Industrials
Waiting for a New
Lower Low for the
Industrials for a
Dow Theory Bear
Market Signal.
NO New High for Trannies
New Lower Low
for Trannies
Page 36
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
{v}, {1}
(e ) {b}
(3), {i} {3}, 3
{a} {c}, {2}
The Industrials could
soon start a Mini Crash
in subwave {3} down of
3-down.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Alt. {c}, {2}
(1)
(2)
e, e, C
1
2
{i}
{ii}
{v}, {1}
{iii}
{iv}
{b}
(3), {i} {3}, 3
{a} {c}, {2}
The Short-term Labeling for
the Industrials.
The Industrials could
soon start a Mini Crash
in subwave {3} down of
3-down.
Alt. {c}, {2}
(1)
(2)
Page 37
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
What is the above completed Jaws of Death pattern from 2017, which is a
component sub-pattern of the larger degree massive Jaws of Death pattern on
the next page, telling us?
It is telling us that A Stock Market Crash is coming, likely soon in 2021.
(C)
E, (D)
(E ) V, (V), {III}
A
B
D
C
The S&P 500
This Expanding Mega-
phone Jaws of Death
Pattern looks finished
and is warning in no un-
spoken terms that a
Stock Market
CRASH is coming,
likely occurring
soon in 2021.
Page 38
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
I thought it would be interesting to stack the Head & Shoulders top patterns for the In-
dustrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 consecutively above, and on the next page. These pat-
terns are after the strong rally the past two days for each market. The H&S patters are intact,
and oddly, we see Triangle tops with the rising and and falling boundaries acting as re-
sistance as prices rose into apexes and have since declined. These are very well defined
boundaries, and have stopped ALL Rallies over the past several months.
The 50 day moving average now appears to be strong resistance as well.
Make no mistake, these are Bearish patterns. The purpose of strong rallies inside
strong large degree declines is to shake out the shorts, forcing short-cover buying, leaving
shorts out of the market just as the next powerful decline is about to start. They also draw in
the Bulls so they can be exposed and get creamed at the coming strong decline. The point is,
once we are in a Bear market, the Bear is not interested in helping shorts, he wants everyone
to lose, both Bulls and Bears.
Right Shoulder
Head
Left Shoulder
Neckline
A Possible Head & Shoul-
ders Top Pattern for the
Industrials, with a Down-
side Price Target of
32,000ish.
DOW INDUSTRIALS
Page 39
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Right Shoulder
Head
Left Shoulder
Neckline
A Possible Head & Shoul-
ders Top Pattern for the
S&P 500, with a Downside
Price Target of 4,000ish.
S&P 500
Right Shoulder
Head
Left Shoulder
Neckline
A Possible Head & Shoul-
ders Top Pattern for the
S&P 500, with a Downside
Price Target of 4,000ish.
NASDAQ 100
Page 40
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Above we see the S&P 500 has completed a Long Term Rising Bearish
Wedge from 1986, overlapped contemporaneously by a Jaws of Death pattern
from 1986. Both patterns are complete now.
What is the message of the market from these patterns? What are the mar-
kets telling us with these completed patterns, completed here in 2021?
There is the mother of Stock Market Crashes coming, and likely to begin
in the period from 2021 through 2022, causing a major Economic Recession /
Depression from 2022 through 2027.
IV
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E ) V, (V), {III}
{IV}
The S&P 500 is completing a Massive
Rising Bearish Wedge, to finish Grand
Supercylce degree wave {III}.
Typical Throwover
Page 41
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Above is one possible wave mapping for the final subwave C-up of wave
(E ) up of the Megaphone topping pattern from 2017. If correct, this is a Rising
Expanding Wedge pattern, which is a topping Bearish pattern, that could have
topped.
If so, a Crash is next, coming in stages, starting soon. The first stage may
have started, with a corrective rise nearly complete, to be followed by a power-
ful decline.
e, C, (E ) V, (V), {III}
c
d a
b
A Rising Expanding Wedge
Bearish Topping Pattern from
October 2020 to March 2021.
Page 42
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Right Shoulder
Head
Left Shoulder
Neckline
A Possible Head &
Shoulders Top Pattern
for the S&P 500, with a
Downside Price Target
of 4,000ish.
{1}
{2}
{3}
{4}
{5}, 1
e, e, C, (E ) V
{a}
{b}
{c}, 2
{1}, 3
A Short-term Labeling
for the S&P 500.
Under this scenario,
the S&P 500 could rally
into early October, and
then Plunge in sub-
wave {1} down of 3-
down.
Wave 2-up forms a
complex Flat pattern.
Page 43
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The NASDAQ 100 may have finished wave e-up of a five subwave Rising
Bearish Wedge pattern, to complete the final wave E-up for a major top.
The NASDAQ 100 is about to Plunge, upon completion of the final subwave e-up to com-
plete this Rising Bearish Wedge from January 2021.
A CRASH is coming in 2021 through 2022.
e, E, (E ), V, (V), {III}
a
b
c
d
The Techs Top may be In.
Page 44
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The NASDAQ 100 has completed Micro degree waves 1-down, and 2-up. The five
waves comprising 1-down are supportive of a new impulsive declining trend of larger de-
gree. Wave 3-down has started with submicro degree wave {1} down of 3-down. Corrective
wave {2} up is underway. Once it tops, a powerful wave {3} down of 3-down will follow.
That decline will be dramatic.
{1}
{2}
{3}
{4}
{5}, 1
e, e, C, (E ) V
{a}
{b}
{c}, 2
A Short-term Labeling
for the NASDAQ 100.
Under this scenario,
the NASDAQ 100 could
rally into mid-October,
and then Plunge in sub-
wave {3} down of 3-
down.
{i}
{ii}
{iii}
{iv}
{v} {1}
{c}, {2}
{a}
{b}
{i} {3}, 3
Page 45
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
(C)
C, (D)
C, (E ) V, (V), {III}
A
B
B
A
IV
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E ) V, (V), {III}
{IV}
Typical Throwover
Small Caps are
going to CRASH,
likely starting in
2021 and contin-
uing into 2023.
This Pattern Looks Complete.
Page 46
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The Russell 2000 has formed a Diamond Top pattern, which is not a com-
mon formation, but is considered a strong bearish reversal pattern. This gives a
downside price target of 200ish for IWM, the ETF that tracks small caps. This
would be about a 10 percent decline from current levels.
On the previous page, we show that the Russell 2000, as represented by
the ETF IWM, has formed a very nearly completed long-term Rising Bearish
Wedge, and has formed the “throwover,” which tells us it is finished or very
nearly so.
5, C, (E ) V, (V), {III}
4
3
Page 47
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Trannies have completed an Expanding Triangle, Megaphone, Jaws of
Death Topping pattern. This pattern is telling us a major stock market CRASH is
coming soon in 2021 through 2022 that could last into 2023 to 2024.
It may be starting.
(C)
C, (D)
C, (E ) V, (V), {III}
A
B
A (A)
A
B
Page 48
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Gold may have finished Primary degree wave (2) down, and started Prima-
ry degree wave (3) up of Cycle degree wave III-up. Wave (3) up could take Gold
toward 3000. The alternate is wave (2) down has lower to go to finish the
“Handle” portion of the Cup and Handle bullish pattern before the coming ex-
plosive rally.
Gold’s Wave Mapping September 17th, 2021
I
(C ), II c (A)
a
b a
e, 5 (1)
(3), III
Weekly Full STO
On a Buy.
b
1
2
3
4
(2)
c (B)
Gold may have started Primary de-
gree wave (3) up of Cycle degree
wave III-up.
a
b
c
d
Alt. (2)
Page 49
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Gold has formed a Cup and Handle Bullish Pattern from 2011 through 2021.
Upon completion of the Handle, we can expect an upside price breakout. Here
are two textbook examples. Below these, we show Gold’s Current Pattern. We
see Gold has nearly completed its Handle, which means a powerful upside
price breakout is coming.
Gold’s Cup and Handle Bullish Pattern
is Nearly Complete. Gold will
Breakout Higher in a Big Way .
Page 50
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Above we see a close-up for Gold’s Handle portion of its Cup and Handle
Bullish pattern from 2011, shown on the previous page. A rise above 1,875
would be Bullish. A rise above 1,950 would be off to the races.
Gold may have completed wave e-down of C-down of a Declining Triangle
pattern, serving as a large portion of the Handle, to finish Primary degree wave
(2) down. A powerful rally looks to have started, wave (3) up. The alternate is
wave e-down remains underway.
If (2) down is finished, Inside wave (3) up, Gold looks to have completed
wave 1-up, and may need another decline to complete an a-down, b-up, c-down
move for Minor degree 2-down. The alternate is wave 2-down has bottomed. It
will take a rise above 1,850 to confirm wave 2 has bottomed.
A
B
e, C, (2)
v, e, 5, (1), III
a
b
c
d
A close-up of Gold’s
Labeling, an A-down,
Declining Triangle B,
and C-Declining Tri-
angle to complete
corrective wave (2)
down.
Alt. e, C, (2)
A Close-up of Gold’s
Handle
1
c, 2
3
a
b
Alt. c, 2
Page 51
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The very short-run view for Gold:
Gold’s short-term wave mapping is that wave 2-down is not complete, with
3-up to follow.
1
5, a
1
2
3
4
c, b a
b c, 2
i, 3
a
b
Alt. c, 2
Page 52
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Silver
1
c, y, 2
a
{e} b {a}
v, 3
a
b
c, x
c, w
{c}
{b} {d}
a
b
i
ii
iii
iv
4
Silver is inside an
Sideways Triangle
for wave 4’s correc-
tive move.
5
c, y, 2
v, 3
i
ii
iii
iv
a
b
e, 4
c
d
Page 53
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Mining stocks are completing wave ii down of 3-up.
5, 1 (3 ) III
II
5, (1)
4
3
2
1
5, c, (2)
a
2
1
b
3
4
Monthly Full Stochastics
On a Sell.
1
c, 2
v, 3
4
a
b
i
ii
iii
iv
Page 54
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
i
c, ii
a
b
1
c, 2 a
Weekly Full Stochastics
On a Buy.
Oversold,
i
a
b
c, b
iii, 3
a
b
c, ii Alt. c, ii
Alt. c, ii
Page 55
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The HUI Mining stocks have formed a pretty impressive Head & Shoulders top pattern.
This may be telling us that when the stock market crashes, Mining stocks (a hybrid of an op-
erating company of underground metals, with the benefit of gold pricing once it is above
ground) will also follow stocks lower. The estimated downside from this pattern is around
190ish.
Initially this makes sense, as they tracked the stock market during the crash of March
2020, However, with the Fed likely to pump dollars aggressively once the crash has been in
play for a while, Miners should reach their projected bottom per the above chart and head
sharply higher, along with Gold, diverging with Stocks that are destined to continue lower.
Head
Left Shoulder Right Shoulder
Neckline
Downside
Price Target
190ish
Page 56
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Mining stocks appear to be dropping in a Declining Bullish Wedge to com-
plete wave c-down of ii down. This has a downside price target of around 27 in
the GDX and around 190ish in the HUI. Once this bottom arrives, a powerful ral-
ly should commence.
b
{a}
{e}, c, ii
1, iii
{b}
{c}
{d}
A Declining Bullish
Wedge for Mining
Stocks.
Alt. {e}, c, ii
Page 57
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
c, 4
v, a
i
ii
b
c, 2
iii
iv
5, 1
c
x
a
b
c
b
a
1
2
5, 3
3
4
c, 2
1
2
5, 3
3
4
Page 58
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The U.S. Dollar may have completed wave 3-down, dropping the dollar as
it is devalued from trillions of currency supply printed by the Fed to deal with
the developing Economic Depression. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned
to nearly $8 trillion from $3.8 trillion over the past year and a half. It is money
printed out of thin air, and then used to purchase assets in the economy.
The Euro may have completed wave e-down to complete the pennant por-
tion of a huge Flag pattern.
a
b
c
d
e
Weekly Full Stochastics
on a Sell Signal.
ii
i
Page 59
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The Euro’s short-term pattern shows the final wave c-down of ii down is
not complete, diving deeper. It previously topped in May 2021 following a small
degree Rising Bearish Wedge.
a
b
{v}, {1}
{i}
{ii}
{iii}
{iv}
{3}, c, ii
{c}, {2} {a}
{b}
Page 60
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
C, b
c, E, (1)
5, c, e D
1
2
3
4 b
a
A
c, C
a
b
a
c, E, (1)
a
b
Monthly WTIC Oil
Oil
Monthly Full
Stochastics
On a Buy.
c, B
b
c
c, e D
a
d b
a
b
Page 61
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
U.S. Bonds are declining in corrective wave 2-down, which has retraced 65
percent of wave 1-up. Once wave 2 bottoms, wave 3-up will follow. U.S. Bonds
rose to an all-time high in March 2020 and have been correcting since.
Bonds are inside a large degree powerful rally leg that will continue for
many years to come as the stock market and U.S. and Global economies sink.
At the bottom of the next page, we show that the 10 Year U.S. Treasury
Note is rising inside a large degree trend-channel (blue lines). It also has risen
to an all-time high in March 2020, record low interest rates, hitting 0.7% March
6th.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Daily Full Stochastics
are On a Sell Signal.
Bottomg.
v, 1
i
ii
iii
iv
(5), C, (2)
c, 2
3, (3)
a
b
Page 62
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
There is an Alternate labeling for U.S. Bonds, which is short-term Bearish, probably
reflecting the massive inflation going on due to extreme Labor and Product shortages.
Supporting this scenario is the possible and nearly complete Head & Shoulders top-
ping pattern Bonds have formed over the past two years. If Bonds drop, it means interest
rates will rise, which is a negative for the stock market.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Daily Full Stochastics
are On a Sell Signal.
v, 1
i
ii
iii
iv
(5), C, (2) c, 2
3, (3)
a
b
Alternate for wave 2-
down for U.S. Bonds Head
Left Shoulder Right Shoulder
Neckline
Page 63
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
iii b
c
d
e, iv
3, v
a
5, v, 1
1
2
3
4
a
b
c, 2
U.S. Treasuries
For U.S. 10 Year
Notes., a possible
upside target is
the rising upper
boundary around
155ish.
Page 64
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
The VIX has formed a five wave Declining Wedge pattern. The VIX has ris-
en from a bottom, and has nearly reached the upper boundary. A breakout
above that boundary would be Bearish for the stock market.
A
B
C
D
E, (A) B
A
(C)
A
B
C, (B) C, (D)
A
B
C, (E)
Page 65
MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
“3Don't let anyone deceive you in any way, for that day will not come until the re-
bellion occurs and the man of lawlessness is revealed, the man doomed to de-
struction. 4He will oppose and will exalt himself over everything that is called
God or is worshiped, so that he sets himself up in God's temple, proclaiming
himself to be God. 5Don't you remember that when I was with you I used to tell
you these things? 6And now you know what is holding him back, so that he may
be revealed at the proper time. 7For the secret power of lawlessness is already
at work; but the one who now holds it back will continue to do so till he is taken
out of the way. 8And then the lawless one will be revealed, whom the LORD Je-
sus will overthrow with the breath of his mouth and destroy by the splendor of
his coming.”
2 Thessalonians 2:3-8
“11 Then I saw a second beast, coming out of the earth. It had two horns like a
lamb, but it spoke like a dragon. 12
It exercised all the authority of the first beast
on its behalf, and made the earth and its inhabitants worship the first
beast, whose fatal wound had been healed. 13
And it performed great
signs, even causing fire to come down from heaven to the earth in full view of
the people. 14
Because of the signs it was given power to perform on behalf of
the first beast, it deceived the inhabitants of the earth. It ordered them to set up
an image in honor of the beast who was wounded by the sword and yet
lived. 15
The second beast was given power to give breath to the image of the
first beast, so that the image could speak and cause all who refused to wor-
ship the image to be killed. 16
It also forced all people, great and small, rich and
poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their fore-
heads, 17
so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is
This indicator was originally named our Technical Indicator Index. We renamed it our Secondary Trend Indicator
because we wanted the time focus for this indicator to be front and center. This indicator focuses on trends that could
last 3 to 6 months +/-. It is an intermediate term stock market trend identifier. This is a proprietary indicator we have de-
signed after intense research and study of over 200 stock market indicators – measures, patterns, and algorithms. We
did a ton of correlation work and came up with a basket of 8 of the best indicators, that in a certain combination, tell us
the direction the market is taking. The great thing about this indicator is that because it has more of an intermediate term
focus, it ignores a certain amount of short-term noise, and keeps us focused on a higher degree trend for markets than
our PPI or Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicators focus on. This indicator is very useful for trading securities that
do not have significant time risk built into their pricing, like options do. Leverage Index ETFs or non-leveraged ETFs are
a good fit for this signal.
We have been showing the Secondary Trend Indicator for years, and report its level every day in these reports.
Simply, when the STI turns above positive + 5, it suggests there is a high probability for a multi-week, even multi-month
rally to be starting. Conversely, when the STI turns below negative –5, it suggests there is a high probability for a multi-
week or multi-month decline to be starting.
This is our Intermediate Term Trend Indicator, which we present in the schedule on page 2 in every report.
Trade Entry is best soon after the indicator changes to a new signal. If it gets near zero, it can drift above or below the
zero line. Once it moves several points positive or negative, there is greater probability the signal is genuine and a new
trend is starting. If someone wanted to play an entry, we would suggest waiting until the STI moves above positive + 5
for a new buy signal, and below negative –5 for a new sell signal. Trading this indicator probably means holding onto the
investment for several weeks, unless the age background indicators, or your own personal preferences, convince you to
exit sooner. The STI is not an exit signal.
The S&P 500 is overbought when the STI approaches positive + 30, and is oversold when the STI approaches
negative –30. That usually means at least a short-term countertrend move is likely to start at these overbought/oversold
levels, but that countertrend move may not mean the intermediate trend that the STI is watching is over. It could resume
once the STI moves away from its overbought/oversold levels.
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MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
6. Primary Trend Indicator: One of the tools we have in our arsenal to identify the status of a Primary Degree trend is a simple analysis of the 14 month moving average versus a Slower moving average calculation, the 5 month MA of the 14 month. It has been terrific at identifying multi-year trends, both up and down. While it sometimes is a little late in generating the buy and sell signals, it triggered a “sell” near the start of Primary degree wave (4) down, in mid 2000. What followed was a two and a half year, 39 percent drop into the wave (4)bottom on October 10th, 2002. It took a while for this indicator to confirm that the rally that started on October 11th, 2002 would in fact be a multi-year primary degree wave up, wave (5) up. But in October 2003, this analytical tool did in fact trigger a Primary Degree “buy” signal, which led to a four year further rally to new all-time nominal highs on October 11th, 2007 at 14,198.10.
We require a 5 month moving average of the Spread between the Fast and Slow to reverse in a new direction for 3 consecutive months in order to declare that a new primary trend, a new multi-year trend, is underway. To generate the previous Buy signal back in May 2010, the spread between the Fast and the Slow went positive in January 2010 for the first time in 20 months. March 2010 generated the first of the three required consecutive positive readings in the 5 month moving average for a long-term Buy signal, April 2010 generated the second, and May 2010 generated the third, when a new Buy signal was triggered six years ago. However, the spread fell to negative – 49 on January 31st, 2016, and was followed by negative spread levels each month since, creating a new long-term Sell signal as of May 31st, 2016. That series of negative spreads was broken in August 2016, and October 2016 was the third positive spread in a row, hence the new Buy signal October 31st.
There had been only five signals since 1997 before the Buy signal in October 2016, so this tool is useful for long-term investors, as it filters out the noise of up and down corrections of significance in favor of the primary trend. September 2008 was the third signal, May 2010’s was the fourth, the May 2016 signal was the fifth, and October 2016’s Buy was the sixth in 20 years.
This chart is useful for our Conservative Balanced Investment Portfolio since once we get a new signal, in the past we have been able to rely upon that signal for years. Further, it tells us which direction surprises are likely to occur, so when playing speculative options or futures, we will know the direction where a surprise trend turn is most likely. Knowledge of the primary trend is also useful for trading. In this case, we can be more aggressive when entering a position in the same direction as the primary trend, and less aggressive when entering a short-term trend play against the primary trend.
Phi Mate Turn Dates:
A Phi Mate turn date is a cycle turn date that identifies high probability tops or bottoms within a week
or so, based upon an historic observation that tops or bottoms tend to occur a Fibonacci number of trading
days from a previous top or bottom that correlates at a Phi ratio, 0.618, or the value 1.0 minus Phi, 0.382,
from the all-time inflation adjusted top in the Dow Industrials, in terms of Gold’s value in U.S. Dollars, January
11th, 2000.
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“Behold, I stand at the door and knock;
if anyone hears My voice and opens the door,
I will come in to him and will dine with him, and he with Me.”
Jesus Christ, Revelation 3:20
“Now to Him Who is able to do exceedingly,
Abundantly beyond all we ask or think,
According to the power that works within us.”
Ephesians 3:20
“And my God shall supply all your needs,
According to His riches in glory in Christ Jesus.”
Philippians 4:19
“And we know that God causes all things to work together for good
to those who love God,
to those who are called according to His purpose.”
Romans 8:28
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MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT
Be Prepared for What is Coming, for
What is starting now,
in Global and U.S. Markets.
It may not be what you think; it will not
be what the Federal Reserve and Wall
Available at www.amazon.com , Dr. McHugh’s new Best Seller ,
The Coming Economic Ice Age, Five Critical Steps to Survive and Prosper.
This is a book you will want to give to those you care about.
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Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., and can
be reached at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. The statements, opinions, buy
and sell signals, and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as an
impersonal general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates,
buy and sell signals, and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment
of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
The information contained in the newsletter is expressed in good faith, but its
accuracy is not guaranteed. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to
be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon
in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment de-
cision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other
appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any
investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based
upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Copyright 2021,
Main Line Investors, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me
shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.
For I have come down from heaven,
For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds
the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;
and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”
John 6: 35, 38, 40
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Here are the symbols for Exchange Traded Funds for the Major Indices:
This is not trading advice. We recommend you conduct your own research and consult
with your investment advisor before entering into any trades with these instruments.
DIA Dow Industrials IYT Trannies
SPY S&P 500 GDX HUI Amex Gold Bugs*
QQQ NASDAQ 100 GLD Gold
IWM Russell 2000 SLV Silver
EWA Australia UUP U.S. Dollar
USO U.S. Oil TLT U.S. Bonds
UDOW Ultra Pro Dow 30 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)
UPRO Ultra Pro S&P 500 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)
TQQQ Ultra Pro QQQ NDX 100 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)