KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association Julia H. Keller (Deutscher Wetterdienst), Olivia Martius (University of Bern), Sarah C. Jones (Deutscher Wetterdienst) www.kit.edu Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer 2010 and its impact on surface conditions Lisa-Ann Quandt (IMK-TRO, Karlruhe Institute of Technology)
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KIT – The Research University in the Helmholtz Association
Julia H. Keller (Deutscher Wetterdienst), Olivia Martius (University of Bern), Sarah C. Jones (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
www.kit.edu
Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer 2010 and its impact on surface conditions
Lisa-Ann Quandt (IMK-TRO, Karlruhe Institute of Technology)
IMK-TRO2 08.04.2016 Lisa-Ann Quandt: Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer
2010 and its impact on surface conditions
Summer 2010
Literature:
Barriopedro et al. (2011)
Dole et al. (2011)
Grumm (2011)
Schneidereit et al. (2012)
…
Russian Heat Wave:
• temperatures over 40°C
• economic losses: $15 billion
• 56.000 fatalities
• Linked with Pakistan Floods in July (1/5 of the country
flooded)
IMK-TRO3 08.04.2016 Lisa-Ann Quandt: Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer
2010 and its impact on surface conditions
Euro-Russian
blocking in
summer 2010
Forecast
variability in
TIGGE
Main scenarios
represented in
TIGGE
Impact of the
blocking system
Combine predicitability and impact
IMK-TRO4 08.04.2016
Approach
Selection of forecastsEOF analysis &
fuzzy clustering
ECMWF
NCEP
UKMO
Comparison of main
development
scenariosImpact on surface
variables
Lisa-Ann Quandt: Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer
2010 and its impact on surface conditions
IMK-TRO5 08.04.2016
Quantifications
Blocking identification:
Overturning in 500 hPa geopotential height (Tibaldi and Molteni, 1990)
RWB at dynamical tropopause (Pelly et al., 2003)
Definition of impacts:
Heat intensity
Maximum and minimum temperatures (thresholds: e.g. tropical night)
HI (Steadman, 1979)
Humidex (Masterton and Richardson, 1979)
Wildfire potential:
LASI (Haines, 1988)
Lisa-Ann Quandt: Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer