Focus on the Non-Conventional Transforming Gas Resources to Supplies Focus on the Non-Conventional Transforming Gas Resources to Supplies Philip H. Stark IHS Energy USAEE /IAEE: 25 th Annual Conference Plenary: Non-Conventional Energies: Probable to Proven September 20, 2005
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Focus on the Non-Conventional · Conventional vs Non-conventional Recoverable Gas Resources Conventional vs Non-conventional 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
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Focus on the Non-ConventionalTransforming Gas Resources to SuppliesFocus on the Non-ConventionalTransforming Gas Resources to Supplies
Ultimate Recoverable Natural Gas from CoalUltimate Recoverable Natural Gas from Coal•• 1,000 trillion 1,000 trillion cfcf maximum; 550 trillion maximum; 550 trillion cfcf more likelymore likely
Ultimate Recoverable Tight Ultimate Recoverable Tight LithologiesLithologies plus Basinplus Basin--centred Gascentred Gas•• 550 550 –– 825 trillion 825 trillion cfcf (North America only)(North America only)
Gas Hydrate Resource InGas Hydrate Resource In--placeplace
•• 90,000 trillion 90,000 trillion cfcf (but only the (but only the 3,000 trillion 3,000 trillion cfcf inin--place place permafrost resource likely to be developed in near term)permafrost resource likely to be developed in near term)
EIA World Energy Use by SourceEIA World Energy Use by Source
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2005
+1.9%
+ 2.3%+ 2.0%
+ 1.9%+ 0.7%
U.S. Gas
Transforming Gas Resources to Supplies Transforming Gas Resources to Supplies Worldwide GasWorldwide Gas--toto--Liquids ProjectsLiquids Projects
LNG Liquefaction Operating LNG Liquefaction Under Construction LNG Liquefaction Planned&Engineering
LNG Regasification Operating LNG Regasification Under Construction LNG Regasification Planned&Engineering Planned Pipeline
Under C. Pipeline
Globalization of Natural GasProposed LNG & Major PipelinesGlobalization of Natural GasGlobalization of Natural GasProposed LNG & Major PipelinesProposed LNG & Major Pipelines
Source: IHS Energy Mid-stream Database End -2004
Worldwide LNG Liquefaction ProjectsWorldwide LNG Liquefaction ProjectsLNG Liquefaction Project Capacities by Country and Status
Potential U.S. overbuild: 2010Demand ~ 13.5 BcfdCapacity ~ 15.7 bcfd
Expect LNG costs in$3.50 - $5.50 Mcf range
LNG Facilities in North America Issues & Concerns
LNG Facilities in North America Issues & Concerns
• Governing laws: Multiple international, federal (DW Port Act + 13 others) and state laws apply
• Complex permitting and regulatory processes– Maritime Administration, US Coast Guard + 14 other
federal agencies and state agencies have jurisdiction– One year time limit for DW approval process– Substantial public opposition outside of TX & LA– Governor of adjacent state has veto power
Public Opposition to LNG FacilitiesPublic Opposition to LNG Facilities• The Issues:
– Security– Environmental damage– Trafficking of large tankers– Aesthetic impairment– Social equity– Falling property values– LNG is catastrophically unsafe
» (The most effective and real objection)
• The Slogans:– NIMBY- Not In My Back Yard– NOPE – Not On Planet Earth– BANANA – Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything
SummarySummary• Non-conventional gas resources increasingly important to
grow supplies• GTL expanding but not expected to make large impact
mid-term global liquids supplies• LNG expanding as leading edge to globalization of natural
gas– Near-term tight supplies in some markets – Potential overbuild after 2007 – Imbalances in LNG supply chain = opportunities
• Complex legal and regulatory environment• Secure supplies to match facilities & demand• Decreasing costs: LNG competes: $3.50 - $5.50/mcf
Focus on the Non-ConventionalTransforming Gas Resources to SuppliesFocus on the Non-ConventionalTransforming Gas Resources to Supplies