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Financial journalism meets Quantitative finance Quality journalism, an unlikely tool for risk managers // Risk management, an undeployed resource for a better journalism Università di Bologna 19 November 2015
24

Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Jan 24, 2018

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Economy & Finance

Antonio Vanuzzo
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Transcript
Page 1: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Financial journalism meets Quantitative finance

Quality journalism an unlikely tool for risk managers

Risk management an undeployed resource for a betterjournalism

Universitagrave di Bologna 19 November 2015

Overview

bull What is a news

bull News features columns investigations

bull News Vs regulatory communications

bull Public and private info

bull How to play with data

bull The secret ingredient

What is a news

News features columns investigations

News Vs regulatory communications

Play with regulatory communications

Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 2: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Overview

bull What is a news

bull News features columns investigations

bull News Vs regulatory communications

bull Public and private info

bull How to play with data

bull The secret ingredient

What is a news

News features columns investigations

News Vs regulatory communications

Play with regulatory communications

Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 3: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

What is a news

News features columns investigations

News Vs regulatory communications

Play with regulatory communications

Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 4: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

News features columns investigations

News Vs regulatory communications

Play with regulatory communications

Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 5: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

News Vs regulatory communications

Play with regulatory communications

Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 6: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Play with regulatory communications

Source Consob (Italian stock market watchdog) filing

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 7: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Public available sourcesbull Stock markets data

bull Companies mandatory reportsbull Companies announcements

bull Macro data (inflation public debt unemployment) bull Regulatory filings

bull Research reports (ie banks think tanks Government related bodies)

bull Academic papers

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 8: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Chasing the context

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 9: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it When the info is not publicly available

Build a thorough network ofhellipbull advisers

bull tradersbrokersbull lawyersbull analystsbull professors

bull board membersbull risk managers

A matter of trust

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 10: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Basic example

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 11: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

What we knewbull overpriced acquisition of Antonveneta

bull major shareholder Fondazione Mps entangled with Italian left party PD

bull operative underperformance compared with peers (NII and CET1 figures)

bull FRESH notes ldquododgyrdquo issuance to avoid Fondazione MPSrsquo dilution risk

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 12: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Monte dei Paschi

Mps 2011 accounts bullEUR 26bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 240bn total

assets

Intesa Sanpaolo 2011 accounts bullEUR 89bn Italian government securities portfolio out of EUR 657bn

All good but not enough to argue itrsquos controversial You need the documents

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 13: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

What we knew

bullNot listed = not transparent

bull self assessed shares value at EUR 625

bull absence of a trading platform

bull credit provided to ldquofriends and familyrdquo (ie Confindustria associates)

bull ambitious branches expansion plan

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 14: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Here comes the ECBrsquos comprehensive assessment

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 15: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signsBanca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 16: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 17: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Pinpoint warning signs Banca popolare di Vicenza

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 18: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Play with public and private data

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 19: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 20: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 21: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Scoop it Play with public and private data2

An educated guess bull Wilbur Ross Carmignac Schroeders among the

bondholders WR getting loudybull Capital shortfall highlighted in ECB comprehensive

assesmentrsquos adverse scenario = EUR 144bnbull Greek banks LME to cover baseline scenario

capital needs = EUR 44bn bull Hellenic financial stability fund (HFSF) firepower =

EUR 109bn

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 22: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Understanding the big picture

Itrsquos all about cracking the next Greece Lehman Parmalat before the competitors

do

It works for risk managers as well

as journalists

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 23: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Understanding the big picture A basic example

Oil price sustained repricing Effect on offshore exploration RampD expenses big oil companies

coming out of fashion oil exporter countries hit

=

Investors looking at the sector

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo

Page 24: Financial journalism meets quantitative finance

Thank you

antoniovanuzzodebtwirecom

antoniovanuzzo