February 09 PM Trends - ipsos.com€¦ · February 2009 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000 ˘ ˇ 39% 31% 11% 19% 48% 28% 17% 7% How would you

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February 2009

Contacts:[email protected]@ipsos-mori.com020 7347 3000

��

��

39%

31%

11%

19%48%

28%

17%

7%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Base: All giving a voting intention = 79% (778); All certain to vote = 50% (510); data collected among 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th-15th February 2009

All giving a voting intention (79%)

All certain to vote (50%)

Con

LD

Lab

Other

Con

LD

Lab

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = +8 Conservative lead = +20

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-03M

ar-03M

ay-03Jul-03S

ep-03N

ov-03Jan-04M

ar-04M

ay-04Jul-04

Sep-04

Nov-04

Jan-05M

ar-05M

ay-05Jul-05S

ep-05N

ov-05Jan-06M

ar-06M

ay-06

Jul-06S

ep-06N

ov-06Jan-07M

ar-07M

ay-07Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08M

ar-08M

ay-08Jul-08S

ep-08N

ov-08Jan-09

�� !��"��#�� $

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

(48%)

(28%)

(17%)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown as PM (Jun 07)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-05

Feb-05

Mar-0

5A

pr-05

May-0

5Ju

n-05Ju

l-05A

ug-05

Se

p-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Ja

n-06F

eb-06M

ar-06

Ap

r-06M

ay-06

Jun-06

Jul-06

Au

g-06S

ep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-0

7A

pr-07

May-0

7Ju

n-07Ju

l-07A

ug-07

Se

p-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Ja

n-08F

eb-08M

ar-08

Ap

r-08M

ay-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Au

g-08S

ep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

%�� & ��'� ��

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical

representations of voting intention




48%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-05F

eb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06F

eb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07F

eb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08F

eb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08N

ov-08D

ec-08Jan-09F

eb-09



(�� & ��'� ��




28%


0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05Apr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06Apr-06M


ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07Apr-07M


ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08Apr-08M


ct-08N

ov-08D

ec-08Jan-09Feb-09






(�� ) & �� & ��'� ��

Clegg elected (Dec 07)

17%


( �� & ��

40

30

20

10

0

10

20

Jan2003

Jul2003

Jan2004

Jul2004

Jan2005

Jul2005

Jan2006

Jul2006

Jan2007

Jul2007

Jan2008

Jul2008

Jan2009

Con

serv

ativ

e le

adLa

bour

lead

General Election ’05 (Labour majority of 66 seats)

Est. Labour lead required for a Labour overallmajority

Est. Cons’ve lead required for a Cons’ve overallmajority

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

*��'��

34

26

64

70

43

35

26

21

% Dissatisfied % Satisfied

*��'��+ �� ,�� & �

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Net satisfaction

+9

-49

+9

Gordon Brown -38


Net change from Dec

2008

+3

-11

0

-12

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as …?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th-15th February 2009

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

BLACK WEDNESDAYGE 1992

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n- ��'��+ �� + ��& �� .�/��0��.0��+

MAJOR / BROWN

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

THATCHER /BLAIR

NEW PM

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

GEN. ELEC SPECULATION

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

BANK ‘BAILOUT’

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

BLACK WEDNESDAY

GE 1992�

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n- ��'��+ �� + �,�� & ��

�� .�/��0��.0��+

Number of months from new PM

MAJOR / BROWN

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?

THATCHER / BLAIR

NEW PM �

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Net

sat

isfie

d %

BROWN

MAJOR

- ��'��+ ��& �� #1"2"� 3��"$�

Number of months from becoming PM

THATCHER

BLAIR

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

FALKLANDS WAR (Thatcher)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Net

sat

isfie

d %

HAGUE

DUNCAN SMITH

HOWARD

- ��'��+ ��4��( �� #1""5�� 3��"$�

Number of months from becoming leader

CAMERON

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Note: methods change for Cameron; see below

-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Jan-06FebMa rAprMay

Jun Jul

SeptOctNovDec

Jan -07 AprMay

JunJulyAugSept

O ctDec

Jan -08FebMa rAprMayJune

JulyAugSept

OctNovDec

Jan -09Feb

�� ,�� & ��& ��

Government Blair/Brown


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…Net satisfied (+/-)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

BLAIR �� BROWN

,��0��+�#��'��$

26%

64%

10%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jul-0

7A

ug-0

7S

ep-0

7O

c t-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb-0

8M

ar-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-0

8J u

l-08

Aug

-08

Se p

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

De c

-08

J an-

09

Feb

- 09

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?

SatisfiedDon’t know

February 2009

DissatisfiedNet = -38

July 2007 – February 2009


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th-15th February 2009

,��0��+�#��'��& ��(�� $

57%36%

7%

Base: 257 Labour supporters 18+, 13th-15th February 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jul-0

7A

ug-0

7S

ep-0

7O

c t-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-0

8F

eb-0

8M

ar-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-0

8J u

l-08

Aug

-08

Se p

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

De c

-08

J an-

09

Feb

- 09

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?


February 2009

DissatisfiedNet = +21

July 2007 – February 2009


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

)��%�& ��#��'��$

43%

34%

23%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?


Dissatisfied Net = +9

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th-15th February 2009Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face

methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

0 6Fe

bM

arA

prM

a yJu

n eJu

lyA

ugS

e pt

Oct

Nov

J an-

07 Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Se p

tO

c tD

ecJa

n-0 8

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Au g

Sep Oct

Nov

De c

Jan -

09F e

b

January 2006 – February 2009February 2009

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

)��%�& ��#��'��& ��!�� $

74%

14%

12%



Base: 295 Conservative supporters 18+, 13th-15th February 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

January 2006 – February 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

06Fe

bM

arA

prM

ayJu

n eJ u

lyA

ugS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-

0 7 Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

tO

ctD

ecJa

n -08

Feb

Mar

Ap r

May

Jun

Jul

Au g

Sep Oc t

Nov

De c

Jan-

09Fe

b

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?

February 2009

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

-��6�%� ��#��'��$

35%

26%

39%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

08

Feb

-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul- 0

8

Au g

-08

Se p

-08

Oc t

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

- 08

J an-

09

Feb

- 09

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?


February 2009




Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 1,001 British adults, 13th-15th February 2009

Don’t know

7��& ��4��& ��&

7��& ��4��& ��& �� 8

20%

17%60%

2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan -

04M

ar-0

4M

ay-0

4Ju

l-04

Sep

-04

No v

-04

Jan-

05M

ar- 0

5M

ay- 0

5Ju

l-05

Sep

-05

Nov

-05

Feb-

06Ap

r-06

Jun-

06S

ep-0

6N

ov-0

6J a

n-07

May

-07

Jul- 0

7S

ep-0

7D

ec-0

7Fe

b-0 8

A pr-

08J u

n-08

Aug

-08

Oc t

-08

Dec

-08

Feb-

0 9

ImproveDon’t know

February 2009

Get worse


EOI = -40%

Improve 20%

Get worse 60%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Stay the same

Stay the same 17%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,001 British adults, 13th-15th February 2009

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

'97

Jun

'97

Nov

'97

Apr

'98

Sep

'98

Jan

'99

Jun

'99

Nov

'99

Apr

'00

Sep

'00

Feb

'01

Jul '

01

Dec

'01

May

'02

Oct

'02

Mar

'03

Aug

'03

Jan

'04

Jun

'04

Oct

'04

Mar

'05

Aug

'05

Jan

'06

Jun

'06

Nov

'06

Apr

'07

Sep

'07

Feb

'08

Jul '

08

Dec

'08

Index (get better minus get worse)

�� 49��7��& ��4��& ��& �� 8


+28

-46

-4

-40

-56


Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

7��& ��4��& ��& �� 1"2"

FalklandsApr-Jun ‘82

GE Jun ‘83GE Jun

‘87

Poll tax riotsMar ‘90

Gulf WarJan-Feb ‘91

GE April ‘92

Black WedSept ‘92

GE May ‘97

GE May ‘01

Fuel crisisSept ‘00

Iraq WarMar ‘03

Sept 11, ‘01

Russia crisisAug-Sept ‘98

GE May ‘05

London bombs Jul ‘05

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month

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February 09 PM Trends - ipsos.com€¦ · February 2009 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000 ˘ ˇ 39% 31% 11% 19% 48% 28% 17% 7% How would you

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