F U N D A Ç Ã O B R A S I L E I R A P A R A O D E S E N V O L V I M E N T O S U S T E N T Á V E L May 21, 2008 Israel Klabin Global Warming and Geopolitics.

F U N D A Ç Ã O B R A S I L E I R A P A R A O D E S E N V O L V I M E N T O S U S T E N T Á V E L

May 21, 2008

Israel Klabin

Global Warming and Geopolitics

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May 21, 2008

● “The process of acceleration of history”

● Recent changes shaping a new world

● Impacts of climate change

● Global responsibilities and global security

● Towards unsustainability

Introduction

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May 21, 2008

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

Climate change

●Global GHG emissions●Increasing evidence of an already

changing climate

Water

●Water scarcity●Poor groundwater quality●Agricultural water use & pollution

Biodiversity & renewable natural resources

●Ecosystem deterioration●Species loss●Invasive alien species●Destruction of tropical forests●Illegal logging●Ecosystem fragmentation

Air quality ●Urban air quality

Present Critical Environmental Issues

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May 21, 2008

Climate ChangePressures on Current Consumption Standards

●The economic prospects of many of the poorest countries are threatened by the unsustainable use of natural resources

●Uncontrolled pollution in rapidly-growing cities

●Impacts of climate change in different ecosystems

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

(Billion) (Billion)

Population 2005 Population 2030

6.58.2

26% increase

Energy demand 2005 Energy demand 2030(Quadrillion BTU) (Quadrillion BTU)

446

722

62% increase

Population growth

Energy demand increase

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May 21, 2008Impacts on Different EcosystemsTemperature Increases

Stern Review Final Report (2006)

5°C4°C3°C2°C1°C0°C

5% 95%

400 ppm CO2e

450 ppm CO2e

550 ppm CO2e

650 ppm CO2e

750 ppm CO2e

Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)

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May 21, 2008Impacts on Different Ecosystems Water

Stern Review Final Report (2006)

0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

glaciers disappear;threats to water

supplies

more than a billion people will likely suffer water

shortages

greater than 30% decrease in runoff in

the Mediterranean and Southern Africa

increased sea level threatens London,

Shanghai, New York, Tokyo and Hong Kong,

Tel Aviv

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May 21, 2008

Stern Review Final Report (2006)

0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

Impacts on Different EcosystemsFood

strong impacts in Sahel region

rising crop yields in high latitude

yields in some developed regions decline

rising number of people at risk of hunger in Africa and West

Asia

falling crop yields in many developing regions

entire regions experience major declines in crop

yields

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May 21, 2008

Stern Review Final Report (2006)

0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

Impacts on Different EcosystemsEcosystems

coral reefs irreversibly damaged

extensive droughts and collapse of the Western Amazon

rainforest

impacts on ecosystems that will be unable to maintain current form

extinction of species (up to 20-50%)

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May 21, 2008Critical Issues Geography X Geology

Source: Compiled from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (2007)

OPEC + RussiaOECD + BICOthers

In 2006, the 12 member countries of OPEC, together with Russia had 82% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves but consumed only 12% of the world’s oil, whereas the countries of the OECD, together with BIC (Brazil, India and China) had 8 % of all reserves but consumed 71% of all oil

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May 21, 2008

Critical Issues Impacts of Global Climate Change on

Geopolitics

●Countries are competing for energy derived from fossil fuel and at the same time are trying to conserve energy

●Developing countries have increased the demand for energy, provoking new alliances, conflicts and threats for developed countries

Source: The Geopolitics of Energy-Carlos Pascual, Brookings Institution (2008)

●Oil consumers paid US$4 billion to US$5 billion more for crude oil per day in 2007 than they did five years ago, pumping more than US$2 trillion into the coffers of oil companies and oil producing nations

●That fact alone will change the global economy and the centers of economic power

●New strategies are already being shaped on how to face stronger and better-equipped “enemies”

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May 21, 2008Critical Issues Security Risks

●International

●It is more likely that many states will collapse due to rivalries interstate on regional and global levels

●Adaptation measures in one country may become a potential threat for neighboring countries, for example: water basins

Source: The Geopolitics of Climate Change-FOI, The Swedish Defense Reaserch Agency (2007)

Source: The National Security and the Threat of Climate Change The CNA Corporation / Center for Naval Analysis, USA (2007)

●National

●The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies

●Military leaders know they cannot wait for certainty

●Failing to act because a warning isn’t precise enough is unacceptable, according to their view

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May 21, 2008Potential Corrective MeasuresMitigation from the Perspective of Security

●Security should be considered indivisible and global in relation to mitigation of climate change

●A comprehensive view of common security must take economic, societal aspects and ecological impacts from climate change into account

●International agencies should be capable of overruling political and military conflicts due to mitigation and adaptation that becomes necessary as a consequence of climate change

Source: The Geopolitics of Climate Change-FOI, The Swedish Defense Reaserch Agency (2007)

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May 21, 2008Potential Corrective Measures Policy Responses to Climate Change

●Policy responses to climate change, such as carbon taxes, cap-and-trade systems, and tougher efficiency and fuel standards, are of very high priority

●Widespread deployment of new energy technologies, in addition to energy conservation, are the most important tools to respond to the challenge of climate change

●Broad, market-based incentives in the private sector to promote technological advances are imperative

Source: “Facing the Hard Truths about Energy” – National Petroleum Council (2007)

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May 21, 2008Potential Corrective Measures Mitigation Action

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

●The more countries that participate in mitigation action for climate change, the cheaper it will be to curb global emissions

●If OECD countries alone implement a carbon tax starting at US$ 25/tonn of CO2 in 2008, this would lead to a 43% reduction in OECD greenhouse

gas emissions. However, global emissions would still be 38% higher in 2050 compared to the 2000 levels

●If Brazil, China, India and Russia follow suit with the same policy in 2020, and the rest of the world in 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 could be brought down to the 2000 levels (0% increase)

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May 21, 2008Potential Corrective MeasuresCase Studies

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 (2008)

● Japan

Imports 16% less oil today than in 1973, although the economy has more than doubled through converting oil-reliant electricity generation system into one powered by natural gas, nuclear energy or alternative fuels

● Guyana

Proposed to enter into a bilateral agreement or be a part of a market based carbon trading regime to insure the integrity of its native tropical forests through avoided deforestation (REDD)

● European Union

Several actions have been taken: binding targets for 2020 to reduce GHG emissions and global energy use by 20%; ensure 20% of renewable energy sources; carbon pricing through the Emissions Trading Scheme and energy taxation

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May 21, 2008Final RemarksFour Geopolitical Blocs on Climate Debate

●Europe and Japan: support the adoption of binding emissions targets

●United States: supports setting a long-term goal and nationally binding medium-term commitments, but not an internationally binding treaty that holds countries collectively to account

Source: The Geopolitics of Energy-Carlos Pascual, Brookings Institution (2008)

●Emerging market economies led by China and India: have resisted any form of binding international targets, and have focused their demands on technology dissemination and financing for the cost differential for clean technologies

●Other developing countries: bearing the brunt of flooding, desertification and other catastrophic effects of climate change, their demands focus on financing to adapt to the impacts of climate change

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May 21, 2008Conclusion

●The Bali Conference produced a step forward

●All countries agreed on the principle that a GHG emissions cap is necessary

●Discussions are now directed to the distribution of responsibilities among developed and developing nations

●Also on the table is curbing deforestation and the funding of research on renewables

●The moment requires statementship and solidarity

“We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools”

Martin Luther King Jr.

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May 21, 2008Contact

Israel KlabinPresident

FBDS Board of Trustees

[email protected]

FBDS — Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable DevelopmentRua Eng. Álvaro Niemeyer, 76 – São Conrado

22610-180 Rio de Janeiro – RJ BRAZILTel: +55 (21) 3322-4520 – Fax: +55 (21) 3322-5903

Site: www.fbds.org.br