F 190516 Auto p1-10 Ahn ed J Jin

Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.

Minkyung [email protected]

EV platforms to take center stage

2H19 Outlook

Autos

[Summary] EV platforms to take center stage 3

I. Platforms to drive EV market forward 4

II. Significance of MEB platform 9

III. The road ahead 13

IV. Global peer group valuations 14

V. Top picks 15

Hanon Systems

[Conclusion] Consumers to drive EV market growth 16

Contents

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research3| 2H19 Outlook [Autos]

[Summary] EV platforms to take center stage

Key driver of EV industry growth: Government support Market economics

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

20

30

40

50

60

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F

(US$'000)('000 units) Global BEV sales (L)Avg. BEV price (R)

- Lack of price competitiveness without subsidies- Market expansion supported by government

- Competitively priced without subsidies- Consumer choice/preference


Source: SNE Research, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Global EV sales volume and growth

Source: SNE Research, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

• The EV market has been growing rapidly.

• With government support, EV infrastructure has also been quickly expanding.

• Contrary to initial worries, EV demand has seen sharp growth.

• Meanwhile, supply growth has been relatively modest due to losses on EV sales.

Policy vs. supply vs. demand

I. Platforms to drive EV market forward

Global EV sales volume and growth by region

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1,100

2015 2016 2017 2018

(%)('000 units)

Ex-China EV sales (L)China EV sales (L)Ex-China YoY (R)China YoY (R)

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1,500

2015 2016 2017 2018

(%)('000 units)

Tesla EV sales (L)Ex-Tesla EV sales (L)Tesla YoY (R)Ex-Tesla YoY (R)


Source: Industry data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Strengthening environmental regulationsChanges in EV subsidy per unit by country

Source: Industry data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

• Governments have been cutting subsidies for eco-friendly vehicles.

• These policy changes are not intended to moderate EV market growth, considering the following:

1) The overall amount of subsidies and number of subsidized vehicles have been expanding.2) Regulations on automakers are strengthening (emission standards, production quotas, etc.).

• Increased sales = larger losses Cost reduction is key for suppliers.

Suppliers’ concerns


Country Details

ChinaThrough 2018: RMB66,000 (W11.5mn)From 2019: RMB27,500 (W4.8mn)To be reduced gradually and eliminated in 2020

USIf an EV maker’s cumulative sales volume exceeds 200,000 units, subsidies will be phased out over 15 months.(US$7,500 US$3,750 US$1,875 US$0)

Korea

Through 2018: W18mn (W12mn from the central government + W6mn from local government)From 2019: W13mn (W9mn from the central government + W4mn from local government)

UK GBP4,500 (W6.7mn) GBP3,500

Norway 25% tax cut

Regulation Details

ZEV(10 US states,including California)

Zero-emission vehicle credit program- Targets OEMs with sales exceeding 20,000 units/year - Allocates ZEV credits based on annual sales volume- OEMs failing to meet the target will be subject to a

penalty of US$5,000 per credit

NEV(China)

New energy vehicle policy- Assigns a quota for eco-friendly vehicle sales based

on a certain percentage of the previous year’s sales- 10% in 2019 12% in 2020 20% in 2025

WLTP(WesternEurope)

Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure- Tests emissions during acceleration and braking - Implemented in 2018 (tightening of existing

regulations)

CAFE(US)

Corporate Average Fuel Economy- Implemented in 2012- Mileage of 23.2km/liter or higher required by 2025- OEMs failing to meet a target will be penalized


Note: Data for ICE vehicles.Source: HMC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

In EV production, modular production yields significant benefitsPlatform integration reduces the period of development

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

• Aggressive SG&A-trimming efforts could cause negative side effects; as a result, manufacturing costs must be the focus of cost control measures.

• Batteries account for 35% of EV manufacturing costs, but they are not produced in-house.

• Therefore, as with ICE vehicle production, platform integration is likely the most effective way to cut costs.

• Modular assembly strategies should pay off even more significantly in EV production.

1) Cost reductions


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2002 2009 2011 2015

(Units)(Mos.)

Avg. R&D period (L)No. of platforms (R)

ICE BEV

Without modularizationModularization


Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

No. of EV makers globallySales volume of diesel vehicles in Germany

Source: SNE Research, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

• As EVs are easier to make than ICE vehicles, competition could intensify due to entries by non-auto players.

• Companies that achieve standardization will likely gain the upper hand over battery suppliers and parts makers, becoming more than simply final car assembly makers.

2) Superior marketpositioning


-50

-25

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(%)('000 units) New diesel car registrations in Germany (L)

YoY (R)

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2015 2016 2017 2018

(No.)


Source: Tesla, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Model Y’s spacious seating and cargo areaModel Y to have a lower floor thanks to EV-dedicated platform

Source: Tesla, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

• Car interiors are a major consideration for car buyers.

• EV platforms will facilitate more efficient use of space.

• EVs without a dedicated platform (i.e., those built on conventional auto platforms) face limitations in terms of space utilization.

• Tesla’s (TSLA US/CP: US$255.03) Model Y, which is set to arrive in 2020, will have seven seats despite being a mid-sized SUV model.

3) Improved marketability



Source: Volkswagen, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Modular assembly kit evolution: Volkswagen’s platform-based modular assembly strategy

• Volkswagen (VOW GR/CP: EUR163.50) boasts the most efficient platform strategy, having produced 100mn units with its MLB/MQB platforms.

• Platform integration reduces the number of vendors, leading to higher efficiency in terms of costs and standards.

• If Volkswagen’s MEB platform proves effective in reducing costs, other automakers will likely want to adopt it.

Volkswagen boasts the most efficient platform strategy

II. Significance of MEB platform



MEB-based model: 2) Eight-passenger MPV ID BuzzMEB-based model: 1) Five-passenger ID model


• Volkswagen unveiled plans to mass produce a two-person EV model based on a dune buggy.

• Audi unveiled the Q4 e-tron concept, the third model in its e-tron lineup.

• Presale reservations for the Volkswagen ID.3 started on May 8th.

• The initial sales volume of the ID.3 deserves attention.

MEB-based EV models to be launched soon



• 2020: To produce 600,000 EVs based on the MEB platform (announced at Auto Shanghai).

• 2022: To increase the number of EV models to 20 (currently two); sales target of 1mn units

• 2025: To increase the number of EV models to 50 and raise annual production volume to 3mn units (25% of total)

• 2028: Sales of 15mn units and 55 MEB-based EV models Sales of 22mn units and 70 EV models

Volkswagen unveiled its “Electric for All” road map

Volkswagen’s ID family development plan

Source: Volkswagen, HMC GBIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research


Maximizing MEB platform’s economies of scale Production of vehicles for all Volkswagen Group companies, including Skoda

- Concurrent development of sedan/hatchback/SUV/MPV models (design for manufacturing)

Volkswagen Other

<Neo - 2019> <Crozz - 2020> <Vizzion - 2022> <TBD - 2022> <Aero - TBD> <Buzz - 2022>

Segment Hatchback - C SUV - C Sedan - E SUV - B Sedan – D MPV - D

Site Zwickau Zwickau Zwickau Emden Emden Hanover

Notes First ID model Coupe-style crossover

Luxury model Under EUR20,000

Similar to Passat(sedan/wagon)

LCV version to be launched

Over 10mn units based

on MEB


Source: e.Go Mobile, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Volkswagen to expand partnerships based on its platforme.Go’s Moove electric minibus Moove

Source: Ford, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

• At CES 2019, Volkswagen announced that it would manufacture and sell its MEB platform.

• The company’s first MEB customer is e.GO Mobile, an EV start-up based in Germany.

• Based on a partnership with Volkswagen, Ford (F US/CP: US$10.41) plans to introduce 16 EV models by 2022.

• In an effort to make forays into the Chinese market, the company is also providing its MEB platform to joint ventures involving Chinese automakers, including SAIC (600104 CH/CP: RMB27.38) and FAW.

Volkswagen opening up MEB to other automakers



Source: HMC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Audi’s e-tron GT concept (PPE platform)HMC’s E-GMP platform

Source: Audi, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

• Porsche-Audi: The PPE platform will be used to build a variety of B/C/D-segment models (SUVs, sedans, wagons, and hatchbacks).

• Mercedes-Benz-BMW: To launch volume-production models under the Mercedes EQ brand name (EVA platform)

• HMC-Kia: Set to launch new EV models built on a dedicated platform named E-GMP in 2020

• GM (GM US/CP: US$38.80): Will also release new EVs based on its third-generation EV platform (EV3) in 2021

Platform war to unfold

III. The road ahead


Global peers’ annual sales

Source: MarkLines, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

New platform introduction timeline

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Global auto/EV players

Note: As of May 3, 2019Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

IV. Global peer group valuations(Wbn, %, x)

Market capRevenue OP NP P/E P/B ROE EV/EBITDA

19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F

HMC 29.5 96,813 101,463 2,422 3,831 1,508 3,526 24.6 9.7 0.4 0.5 1.7 5.0 12.5 10.8

Kia 18.3 54,170 55,773 1,157 1,841 1,156 2,054 15.6 8.8 0.7 0.6 4.3 7.4 3.8 4.3

GM 64.0 161,834 170,597 4,892 8,931 8,820 11,184 5.4 5.8 1.3 1.2 24.0 23.0 2.8 3.5

Ford 47.9 176,459 173,090 3,525 8,549 4,047 6,331 8.1 7.6 1.1 1.1 8.5 11.3 2.1 2.6

Tesla 47.3 23,619 29,169 -427 229 -1,074 -284 - - 8.8 6.3 -21.4 -4.7 36.2 22.1

Toyota 235.4 294,442 313,122 24,051 26,268 24,995 21,513 10.6 9.9 1.0 1.0 9.9 10.6 7.9 11.1

Daimler 81.6 217,409 224,288 13,336 15,558 9,417 10,359 8.8 8.0 0.9 0.9 10.7 12.2 2.6 2.7

Volkswagen 103.4 306,377 318,654 18,083 22,539 15,765 18,218 6.8 5.8 0.8 0.6 11.7 11.9 1.3 1.6

BMW 64.7 126,630 128,277 11,784 9,650 9,245 7,813 7.0 8.4 0.9 0.8 12.8 9.7 5.2 7.3

Hanon Systems 6.6 5,938 7,023 434 501 278 332 23.8 20.0 3.2 3.1 13.8 15.6 9.8 9.3

VolkswagenMEB GM: EV3/Toyota-Matsuda-Denso Porsche-Audi:

PPE

HMC/Kia:E-GMP

Mercedes-Benz-BMW:EVA

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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VW Toyota RNM GM HMG Ford Honda

(mn units)


Investment points

• The increasing utilization of platforms should allow component suppliers with high revenue exposure to key platforms to expand their market presence.

• Hanon Systems supplies electric compressors for Volkswagen’s MEB EV platform; we expect electric compressor revenue to increase further, once Ford adopts the platform.

• Electric compressors will yield higher margins than conventional compressors, once scale is achieved.

Risk factors

• High valuation vs. peers

• Potential issues with downstream production

Expectations for platform-driven top-line growth

Hanon Systems (018880 KS)

(Maintain)

Target Price (12M, W)

Share Price (5/3/19, W)

510

EPS Growth (19F, %)

Market EPS Growth (19F, %)

P/E (19F, x)

Market P/E (19F, x)

KOSPI

Market Cap (Wbn) FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F

Shares Outstanding (mn) Revenue (Wbn) 5,704 5,586 5,938 7,346 7,997 8,706

Free Float (%) OP (Wbn) 423 468 434 538 597 654

Foreign Ownership (%) OP margin (%) 7.4 8.4 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.5

Beta (12M) NP (Wbn) 292 289 278 372 421 467

52-Week Low EPS (W) 547 541 520 698 788 875

52-Week High ROE (%) 16.4 15.2 13.8 17.4 17.8 17.7

(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 18.8 25.7 20.8 17.6 15.5 14.0

Absolute 6.5 14.0 9.4 P/B (x) 3.0 3.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.3

Relative 6.9 8.7 23.9 Div.Yield (%) 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6

Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests

Source: Hanon Systems, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

18.8

1.02

9,760

13,250

17.6

12.2

2,196.32

6,539

534

30.0

OP (19F, Wbn) 538

Consensus OP (19F, Wbn)

34.1

-18.2

Buy

17,500

12,250

Expected Return 43%

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18.4 18.8 18.12 19.4

Hanon Systems

KOSPI



The time is ripe for a platform-driven profit pickup

[Conclusion] Consumers to drive EV market growth

1Q18 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q19 2QF 3QF 4QF 1Q20F 2QF 3QF 4QF

Continuous declinesin global M/S

Lower utilizationMargin erosion

Robust new car sales; shift to a profit-oriented

strategy

Wider adoption of platforms to boost

margins

Increased EV platform adoption Swing to

profit for EV businesses


Coverage overview

Company Ticker RatingTarget price

(12M, W)Current price

(5/3/19, W)

Hanon Systems 018880 KS Buy 17,500 12,250

Hyundai Motor 005380 KS Buy 166,000 137,500

Kia Motors 000270 KS Buy 44,000 43,300

Hyundai Mobis 012330 KS Buy 295,000 233,000

Mando 204320 KS Buy 41,500 32,650



APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price Hanon Systems(018880) 09/14/2017 Trading Buy 14,000 03/06/2019 Buy 17,500 01/18/2017 Buy 13,500 08/27/2018 No Coverage 07/09/2018 Buy 13,500 05/15/2018 Buy 14,000

Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell

Equity Ratings Distribution 83.52% 8.24% 8.24% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 82.61% 4.35% 13.04% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2019)

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10%

Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

0

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May 17 May 18 May 19

(W) Hanon Systems


APPENDIX 1

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.


APPENDIX 1

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F 190516 Auto p1-10 Ahn ed J Jin

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