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The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Rob Gardner

May 22, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changesin technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting FutureResults" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permissionof Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.


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0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Demographic Shifts Alter Demand ProfileBillion

OECD China India

Age 0 14

Age 15 64

Age 65+

Africa

2010 2040

Source: World Bank


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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 2040

0.9%

Energy Demand

Energy Saved~500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

BillionPopulation GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 2040

0.8%


2010 2040

2.9%

OECD

Non OECD


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0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand

Quadrillion BTUsNon OECD Demand

Trillion 2005 $Non OECD GDP

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation

2010

2025

2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

ElectricityDemand


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Electricity Generation

+80%By 2040, worldwide

electricity demand will be

80% higher.


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 2040

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWhBy Sector

Transportation

Industrial

Residential/Commercial

Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables


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0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind *

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables

$60/ton CO2

2011 cents/kWhBaseload, Startup 2030

$0/ton CO2


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0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

k TWh

Gas

NuclearCoal

Wind

Other Renewables

Gas w/ CCS

Coal w/ CCS

Electricity Supply Varies Globally

United Statesk TWhChina

Oil

k TWhEurope

* Generation by Type


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Transportation

90%By 2040, 90% of

transportation will run onliquid petroleum-based fuels.


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0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth

PersonalMBDOE

CommercialMBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Heavy DutyVehicles


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0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles

Rest of OECD

Rest of NonOECD

China

United States

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

On-Road MPG

2020-2025 Target

2015 Target

2010


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0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million VehiclesLight Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type

Conv. Gasoline

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV

Natural gas/LPG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040On-Road MPG

2010

2020-2025 Target

2015 Target

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


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0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD

Other OECD China India Middle East Latin

America

Other Non

OECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2010

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles


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0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD


America

Other Non

OECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2025


Powertrain TechnologyMillions of Vehicles




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0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD


America

Other Non

OECD

PHV/EV

Full HybridCNG

LPG

Diesel Conv

Mogas Conv

2040


Powertrain TechnologyMillions of Vehicles




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0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel

MBDOEOECD

Gasoline

Ethanol

Diesel

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

Other

MBDOENon OECD


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0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /

Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2010

2040

-0.2%

1.6%

2.2% 0.3%

6.0% 1.6%

Average Growth / Yr.2010 - 2040

0.9%


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0

5

10

15

20

U.S. Europe China India

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2015 2040

CO2 Emissions Plateau

Billion TonsBy Region

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India & Africa

China

Tons per PersonEmissions per Capita

2010

2025

2040


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Supply

By 2040

60%of global demand will besupplied by oil & gas.


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0

1

2

3

4

5

2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOELiquids Supply

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify

Conventional Crude and Condensate

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Tight Oil

Biofuels

Remaining

Resource

Cumulative

Production

TBOResource *

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content wasauthorized in advance by IHS.


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America

EuropeOECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Global Gas Resource

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

World: ~250 years coverage at current demandLarge unconventional gains anticipated

World

Russia/Caspian*


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases

BCFDProduction by Type

Unconventional

Conventional

BCFDDemand by Region

North America

Middle East

AP Non OECD

Rest of OECD

Russia/Caspian

Rest of NonOECD


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-30

-15

0

15

30

45

North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian

BCFD

Pipeline

LNG

Local Unconventional

Local Conventional

By Type

Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025


25/32


-30

-15

0

15

30

45

North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian

BCFD

Pipeline

LNG

Local Unconventional

Local Conventional

By Type

Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040


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REGIONALSNAPSHOTS


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0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

North America Energy Demand and Supply

By SectorQuadrillion BTUs

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

ElectricityGeneration

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


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0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Latin America Energy Demand and Supply



Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

CoalNuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


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0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Europe Energy Demand and Supply



Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

NuclearBiomass

Other Renewables


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0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China Energy Demand and Supply



Transportation

Industrial


Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

NuclearBiomass

Other Renewables


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0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

PercentGlobal Percent Mix of Fuels

1800 1900 20001850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040


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