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Confidential
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ABSTRACT
Despite many technological advances, human race has continued to rely on fossil fuels for its expanding energy consumption, thus depleting these precious resources at much faster rates than they are replenished. There is a need to describe, imagine and explore possible energy futures that we are facing in next 20 years or so. This paper use a new integrated approach which combines scenario planning and studies of patent trends in specific domains and combine them with the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). This integrated approach results in much more comprehensive and robust scenarios. The resulting scenarios are explored to determine new possibilities for our energy needs. The scope of research into energy efficient mechanisms (both present and future) is then prioritized in each scenario. This is carried out using a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The comprehensive multi-dimensional and multi-perspective (MDMP) methodology proposed in this paper using well-established scientific methods results in exploration of multiple energy futures thus creating more robust solution directions.
Bollyworld Scenario, India follows the path of a make-believe
world characterized by typical bollywood movie. Superficial Growth!
The Pahale Bharat (“Putting India First”) Scenario Idealized transformational scenario requires a movement where all rise above the petty local issues.
Atakta Bharat (“India Getting Stuck”) Scenario, Indian
government fails to take action to instigate reforms. This scenario paints a very bleak future for India.
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Four Future Scenarios – ENERGY OF INDIA Perspective
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Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE)
This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from Shell scenario, elements ofLION scenario from WEC scenarios and elements of Pahale Bharath from WEFscenario study. The world wakes up to the energy challenge with the associatedenvironment consequences and through an unprecedented level of inter-government cooperation combined with informal and formal social networksacross boundaries join hands to create a holistic response to these challenges.The global sharing and collaboration designed under this scenario percolatesdown to individual countries and in fact Indians wakes up to these needs andcome up to put “India first” to eliminate and minimize the individualistic issuesand conflicts. The world cooperates in technology, science and commerce in anunprecedented manner. The ideals of “One world Joint Response” leads toimproving the energy security of the whole world as the waste of resources isminimized everywhere. The joint technology development in the renewableresources openly embraces collaboration across all boundaries.
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Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME)
This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements of Giraffe scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat, wherein neither the government is connected with the world nor does it facilitate inclusive growth for the people of India. In the SAME scenario, the world nations continue to view each other with suspicion which leads to reduction in the pace of globalization and collaboration. There is an increase in entrepreneurship, new products and technologies. India, however, continues to remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with the new development. This leads to unprecedented increase in frustration in the form of young and unemployed population. The increase in violence on petty issues continues to plague the nation.
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Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE)
This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements of Leopard scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat. In the SORE scenario, the world nations look at their own interests only. The anti-globalization sentiments increase with the associated increase in the conflicts and hoarding of energy resources. With extremely individualistic and short term focus the voices of reason and rationality are trampled by the egos of nations. India continues to remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with the new development. The world finds itself on the brink of energy and environment crises with a very strong possibility of First World War of the millennium.
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Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME)
This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from the Shell Study with elements of Elephant scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Pahale Bharat. In the HOME scenario, the world nations are organized into 4-5 different poles. It has become a multi-polar world looking at the interests of only their own group. These poles or group of nations, although connected with each other through trade and other links, do not interfere in each other’s businesses and follow the principles of peaceful co-existence. Within their own pole, they organize themselves as hierarchies based on the energy surplus available to them. India assumes a position of strength as being at the helm of one of the poles in the pentapolar world of 2050. With innovative strategies for inclusive growth, India takes pragmatic initiatives to join hands with many like-minded countries in the penta-polar world. The multiple poles work towards enhancing their own energy security, however, they come together to resolve conflicts and contradictions related to environment in a more or less cohesive manner.
Energy Nets With the advent of bio -fuels, food and fuel supply chains are integrated. The resulting supply chain efficiencies salvage the escalating global standoff between food crops and fuel crops. Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel. All households have simple thermal oil convertors.
Transition to higher level system
Law of system completeness
Live Energy Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher entropy energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil -fuels to bio-fuel and then to geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy. Systems are also able to store and re-utilize energy wasted during transmission and use. Collaborative science and technology helps multiple domains like material science, nanotechnology, biotechnology et c. to come together and create the next level of biological energy systems that actively generate and store energy. Roads are designed with structured bumps – car suspension systems are able to store and re -use the energy generated. Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store energy captured from sunlight similar to photosynthesis in plants.
Increasing dynamism
Harmonization of rhythms
Shortening of energy flow path
Multi-Energy Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel, natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations. Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy sources, albeit with only above a verage efficiencies, initially. All cars come pre- equipped with variety of energy crunchers - solar panels, batteries, diesel engines, batteries, wind sails etc.
Transition to micro -level Drop Energy Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent rather than liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand measured in liters rather than barrels.
Increasing dynamism
Increasing Controllability
Modular Energy Systems become increasingly segmented and modular. Standardization helps iron out inefficiencies in energy storage, transmission and use. New plug and play automobiles are widely used. Users can assemble their own cycles, motorbikes and cars, or convert one to another with easy toolkits.
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Multi Dimensional Multi Perspective (MDMP)Methodology to Explore the Future
STEP 1 Write MULTIPLE FUTURE SCENARIOS
STEP 2 EXPLORE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (PATENTS) –EXTRAPOLATE IF POSSIBLE
STEP 3 IMAGINE And FORECAST FUTURE POSSIBILITIES (Thought Experiments, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ))
STEP 4 PLAY OUT PATENTS TRENDS and TRIZ POSSIBILITIES in Various SCENARIOS and EVALUATE USING Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
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What should be the LONG TERM STRATEGY …..
It is evident that in HOSE and HOME Scenarios, the Energy Nets strategy emerges as the top priority with almost 50% relative value. However, in the SAME and SORE scenarios, Energy Net strategy is of least value. In the SAME scenario Modular Energy and Drop Energy strategies become more important while in the SORE Modular, Drop, Multi and Live energy have very close relative values.
Once can choose a relative path based on the possibility of future.
However, given the need of global cooperation, creating an integrated global collaborative energy net seems to be the most important
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CONCLUSIONS
• An integrated methodology combining Scenario planning, Patent trends, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This is used as a test case in scenarios for possible futures of energy in the global context.
• One can see the efficacy of the methodology as the results explore multiple inputs and contexts to generate newer and different possibilities yet integrating in the overall context.
• We intend to develop and apply this methodology in further detailed explorations of future energy needs of the world.
• Lastly, we look forward to active collaborators in our explorations of future as we believe the methodology reinforced with multiple domain experts from wide ranging organizations will lead to a more Energized Future – we believe this is really the need of the hour!