12 MONTH CANDLESTICK (WEEKLY) Prompt Natural Gas (NG) Daily Sentiment RESISTANCE 2.90 & 2.95 SUPPORT 2.82 & 2.79 China's soaring natural gas output unable to meet demand set loose in pollution fight — Reuters reported: China’s natural gas production is rising at the fastest pace in four years but that will not be enough to meet the demand for the fuel that has been unleashed through a government program to raise gas usage in order to clean the country’s polluted air. Gas output in China rose IN THE NEWS Prior Day’s NYMEX Feb-18 Contract (CT) © 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved. Trading Summary NYMEX NG Futures BEARISH Contact Us Mansfield Energy Corp 1025 Airport Pkwy Gainesville, GA 30501 www.mansfield.energy [email protected] Phone: (800) 695-6626 FEBRUARY 5, 2018 2.81 2.82 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.89 2.90 8:00 8:45 9:30 10:15 11:00 11:45 12:30 13:15 14:00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 NATURAL GAS Futures Close Change NG 2.846 (0.010) Volume 379,743 (298,366) Open Int. 1,391,203 (3,453) CRUDE AND GASOLINE Futures Close Change Crude 65.45 (0.35) RBOB 1.8720 (0.0238) Crude/NG 23.00 (0.04) METALS Futures Close Change Gold 1,333.70 1.60 EQUITIES Exchange Close Change DOW 25,520.96 (665.75) S&P 500 0.00 (19.34) CURRENCY Currency Close Change EUR/USD 1.2362 0.0068 USD/CND 1.2405 0.0029 Month Close Change Mar-18 2.846 (0.010) Apr-18 2.792 (0.001) May-18 2.797 0.001 Jun-18 2.832 0.001 Jul-18 2.872 0.000 Aug-18 2.871 (0.002) Sep-18 2.853 (0.002) Oct-18 2.875 (0.002) Nov-18 2.922 (0.005) Dec-18 3.057 (0.007) Jan-19 3.150 (0.006) Feb-19 3.114 (0.004) Mar-19 3.002 (0.001) Apr-19 2.711 0.006 May-19 2.677 0.006 Jun-19 2.704 0.006 Jul-19 2.734 0.007 Aug-19 2.736 0.007 Sep-19 2.723 0.007 Oct-19 2.748 0.008 Nov-19 2.795 0.008 Dec-19 2.928 0.012 Jan-20 3.045 0.013 Feb-20 3.028 0.013 1YR Strip 2.915 (0.003) 2018 2.872 (0.003) 5YR Strip 2.864 0.006 China's soaring natural gas output unable to meet demand set loose in pollution fight NYMEX March natural gas down 1 cent but slows declines on technicals to a record 147.4 bcm last year, up 8.5 percent from 2016, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. China, the world’s largest energy consumer, was the world’s sixth-largest gas pro- ducer in 2016 after rising investments over the past 20 years. However, consumption is surging even faster, climbing 15 percent in 2017 to 237 bcm, according to the National Development and Reform Commission. Gas production is forecast to climb by be- tween 6 percent to 8 percent per year through 2020, according to researchers at China National Petroleum Corp. SIA expects Chi- na’s 2018 gas output to rise by around 8 percent, or roughly 12 bcm, at the same time that gas demand will rise by 30 bcm, or 12.5 percent, to 270 bcm. For more on this story visit reu- ters.com or click http://reut.rs/2GPN7n1 NYMEX March natural gas down 1 cent but slows declines on tech- nicals — Platts reported: After a 1.0 cent drop to close at $2.846/ MMBtu Friday, NYMEX March natural gas futures edged briefly higher overnight ahead of Monday's open as technical buying view with fundamental pressure. But the market then turned lower again. FAfter the March contract logged a net 32.1 cent drop since becoming front month on Jan. 30, a burst of opportunist buying buoyed the futures market overnight. But the upside remains limited by weakness implied by recent and projected low weather- related demand. Natural gas demand ended January on a weak note in generally warmer weather, with the EIA's latest update for the week ended Jan. 31 showing a 2% drop in US gas consump- tion. For more visit platts.com or click http://bit.ly/2EiaEy8
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1 2 M O N T H C A N D L E S T I C K ( W E E K L Y )
Prompt Natural Gas
(NG) Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
2.90 & 2.95
SUPPORT
2.82 & 2.79
China's soaring natural gas output unable to meet demand set loose in pollution fight — Reuters reported: China’s natural gas production is rising at the fastest pace in four years but that will not be enough to meet the demand for the fuel that has been unleashed through a government program to raise gas usage in order to clean the country’s polluted air. Gas output in China rose
I N T H E N E W S Prior Day’s NYMEX
Feb-18 Contract (CT)
© 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Trading Summary NYMEX NG Futures
BEARISH
Contact Us
Mansfield Energy Corp
1025 Airport Pkwy
Gainesville, GA 30501
www.mansfield.energy
Phone: (800) 695-6626
F E B R U A R Y 5 , 2 0 1 8
2.81
2.82
2.83
2.84
2.85
2.86
2.87
2.88
2.89
2.90
8:0
0
8:4
5
9:3
0
10
:15
11
:00
11
:45
12
:30
13
:15
14
:00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
NATURAL GAS
Futures Close Change
NG 2.846 (0.010)
Volume 379,743 (298,366)
Open Int. 1,391,203 (3,453)
CRUDE AND GASOLINE
Futures Close Change
Crude 65.45 (0.35)
RBOB 1.8720 (0.0238)
Crude/NG 23.00 (0.04)
METALS
Futures Close Change
Gold 1,333.70 1.60
EQUITIES
Exchange Close Change
DOW 25,520.96 (665.75)
S&P 500 0.00 (19.34)
CURRENCY
Currency Close Change
EUR/USD 1.2362 0.0068
USD/CND 1.2405 0.0029
Month Close Change
Mar-18 2.846 (0.010)
Apr-18 2.792 (0.001)
May-18 2.797 0.001
Jun-18 2.832 0.001
Jul-18 2.872 0.000
Aug-18 2.871 (0.002)
Sep-18 2.853 (0.002)
Oct-18 2.875 (0.002)
Nov-18 2.922 (0.005)
Dec-18 3.057 (0.007)
Jan-19 3.150 (0.006)
Feb-19 3.114 (0.004)
Mar-19 3.002 (0.001)
Apr-19 2.711 0.006
May-19 2.677 0.006
Jun-19 2.704 0.006
Jul-19 2.734 0.007
Aug-19 2.736 0.007
Sep-19 2.723 0.007
Oct-19 2.748 0.008
Nov-19 2.795 0.008
Dec-19 2.928 0.012
Jan-20 3.045 0.013
Feb-20 3.028 0.013
1YR Strip 2.915 (0.003)
2018 2.872 (0.003)
5YR Strip 2.864 0.006
China's soaring natural gas output unable to meet demand set
loose in pollution fight
NYMEX March natural gas down 1 cent but slows declines on
technicals
to a record 147.4 bcm last year, up 8.5 percent from 2016, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. China, the world’s largest energy consumer, was the world’s sixth-largest gas pro-ducer in 2016 after rising investments over the past 20 years. However, consumption is surging even faster, climbing 15 percent in 2017 to 237 bcm, according to the National Development and Reform Commission. Gas production is forecast to climb by be-tween 6 percent to 8 percent per year through 2020, according to researchers at China National Petroleum Corp. SIA expects Chi-na’s 2018 gas output to rise by around 8 percent, or roughly 12 bcm, at the same time that gas demand will rise by 30 bcm, or 12.5 percent, to 270 bcm. For more on this story visit reu-ters.com or click http://reut.rs/2GPN7n1 NYMEX March natural gas down 1 cent but slows declines on tech-nicals — Platts reported: After a 1.0 cent drop to close at $2.846/MMBtu Friday, NYMEX March natural gas futures edged briefly higher overnight ahead of Monday's open as technical buying view with fundamental pressure. But the market then turned lower again. FAfter the March contract logged a net 32.1 cent drop since becoming front month on Jan. 30, a burst of opportunist buying buoyed the futures market overnight. But the upside remains limited by weakness implied by recent and projected low weather-related demand. Natural gas demand ended January on a weak note in generally warmer weather, with the EIA's latest update for the week ended Jan. 31 showing a 2% drop in US gas consump-tion. For more visit platts.com or click http://bit.ly/2EiaEy8
Month:
Day Price Day Price
1 65.80 16
2 65.45 17
3 18
4 19
5 20
6 21
7 22
8 23
9 24
10 25
11 26
12 27
13 28
14
15
Average (Feb)
(through 02/02/2018)
Average (Jan)
Average (Dec)
63.6590
57.9470
February 2018
65.6250-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
Waha Basis (platts Iferc)
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
N A T U R A L G A S B A S I S F U T U R E S , H E N R Y H U B S P O T P R I C E S , A N D F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 2 © 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
F E B R U A R Y 5 , 2 0 1 8
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Call
CME NG Option Prices
ATM Put
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
2.25
2.45
2.65
2.85
3.05
3.25
3.45
1 3 5 7 9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Henry Hub Daily Spot Price
DEC 2017 NOV 2017 OCT 2017
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
3/1/
2018
8/1/
2018
1/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
4/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
2/1/
2021
7/1/
2021
12/1
/202
1
5/1/
2022
10/1
/202
2
3/1/
2023
8/1/
2023
1/1/
2024
6/1/
2024
11/1
/202
4
4/1/
2025
9/1/
2025
2/1/
2026
7/1/
2026
NYMEX Natural Gas Forward Curve
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
-1.400
-1.200
-1.000
-0.800
-0.600
-0.400
-0.200
0.000
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
Sumas Basis (platts Iferc)
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
Michcon Basis (platts Iferc)
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
Transco Zone 6 Basis (platts Iferc)
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
-1.200
-1.000
-0.800
-0.600
-0.400
-0.200
0.000
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
San Juan Basis (platts Iferc)
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
-0.06
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
Transco Zone 4 Basis (platts Iferc)
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
Apr-18
May-18 2.750 0.141 33.7
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Month Strike Close Imp Vol
Apr-18
May-18 2.750 0.102 26.2
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
NYMEX WTI Delivery
Month Average ($/bbl)
(Excluding Weekends and Holidays)
W E E K L Y G A S I N U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E W I T H 5 - Y R R A N G E
Page 3 © 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
Release Date: January 25, 2018
F E B R U A R Y 5 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Rig Count
Report Date:
Total Change
US - 946 (1)
CN - 342 +4
February 2, 2018
O B S E R V E D S N O W D E P T H
2 4 H O U R S N O W F A L L F O R E C A S T
EIA Weekly NG Storage
Actual and Surveys for
January 26, 2018
Released February 1, 2018
Range (90) to (138)
PIRA — (104)
ARM — (110)
Reuters — (110)
EIA ACTUAL — (99)
2,197 BCF
(99) BCF (LAST WEEK)
(526) BCF (LAST YEAR)
(425) BCF (5-YR AVG)
Total Working Gas In
Storage
U.S. Natural Gas Supply
Gas Week 1/18— 1/24
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +70.4
Total Supply — +76.6
Last Week (BCF/d)
Dry Production — +76.7
Total Supply — +83.0
[NEXT REPORT ON Feb 8]
U.S. Natural Gas Demand
Gas Week 1/18— 1/24
Average daily values (BCF/D):
Last Year (BCF/d)
Power — +20.6
Total Demand — +83.8
Last Week (BCF/d)
Power — +28.3
Total Demand — +117.8
[NEXT REPORT ON Feb 8]
Page 4 © 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W E A T H E R — H I G H / L O W T E M P E R A T U R E T O M O R R O W
HIGH Temperature LOW Temperature
W E A T H E R — 6 T O 1 0 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
W E A T H E R — 8 T O 1 4 D A Y O U T L O O K — N O A A
Temperature Precipitation
F E B R U A R Y 5 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
CME Future Prices
Ethane (C2)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
CME Future Prices
Propane (C3)
Non-LDH— Mont Belvieu
E T H A N E F U T U R E S , N G / E T H A N E R A T I O , P R O P A N E F U T U R E S , A N D T H E F R A C S P R E A D
Page 5 © 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
F E B R U A R Y 5 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Month Close Change
Mar-18 0.247 (0.005)
Apr-18 0.247 (0.003)
May-18 0.246 (0.003)
Jun-18 0.249 (0.002)
Jul-18 0.252 (0.003)
Aug-18 0.256 (0.002)
Sep-18 0.259 (0.001)
Oct-18 0.264 (0.002)
Nov-18 0.268 (0.002)
Dec-18 0.273 (0.001)
Jan-19 0.277 0.000
Feb-19 0.286 0.000
1YR Strip 0.260 (0.002)
(cents/gallon)
Month Close Change
Mar-18 0.840 (0.016)
Apr-18 0.812 (0.017)
May-18 0.783 (0.014)
Jun-18 0.774 (0.011)
Jul-18 0.774 (0.011)
Aug-18 0.775 (0.012)
Sep-18 0.778 (0.011)
Oct-18 0.784 (0.011)
Nov-18 0.789 (0.011)
Dec-18 0.793 (0.011)
Jan-19 0.796 (0.012)
Feb-19 0.799 (0.012)
1YR Strip 0.791 (0.013)
(cents/gallon)
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
3/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
11/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
7/1/
2019
9/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
1/1/
2020
3/1/
2020
5/1/
2020
7/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
Ethane Futures
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
3/
1/2
01
8
4/
1/2
01
8
5/
1/2
01
8
6/
1/2
01
8
7/
1/2
01
8
8/
1/2
01
8
9/
1/2
01
8
10
/1/2
01
8
11
/1/2
01
8
12
/1/2
01
8
1/
1/2
01
9
2/
1/2
01
9
3/
1/2
01
9
4/
1/2
01
9
5/
1/2
01
9
6/
1/2
01
9
Ethane / Natural Gas Ratio
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
3/1
/20
18
5/1
/20
18
7/
1/2
01
8
9/1
/20
18
11
/1/2
01
8
1/
1/2
01
9
3/1
/20
19
5/1
/20
19
7/1
/20
19
9/
1/2
01
9
11
/1/2
01
9
1/1
/20
20
3/1
/20
20
5/
1/2
02
0
7/1
/20
20
9/1
/20
20
Propane Futures
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
3/1/
2018
4/1/
2018
5/1/
2018
6/1/
2018
7/1/
2018
8/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
10/1
/201
8
11/1
/201
8
12/1
/201
8
1/1/
2019
2/1/
2019
3/1/
2019
4/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
Frac Spread
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
Prompt WTI (CL) Crude
Daily Sentiment
RESISTANCE
66.34 & 67.24
SUPPORT
64.51 & 63.58
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
4/1/
2018
8/1/
2018
12/1
/201
8
4/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
12/1
/201
9
4/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
12/1
/202
0
4/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
12/1
/202
1
4/1/
2022
8/1/
2022
12/1
/202
2
4/1/
2023
8/1/
2023
12/1
/202
3
4/1/
2024
8/1/
2024
12/1
/202
4
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
Ethane : 42% 66,500 btu/g
Propane: 28% 90,830 btu/g
Butane: 11% 102,916 btu/g
Iso-Butane: 6% 98,935 btu/g
Natural Gasoline: 13%
115,021 btu/g
B R E N T C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
Page 6 © 2017 Mansfield Energy Corp. All rights reserved.
W T I C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E
W T I — B R E N T S P R E A D
NYMEX WTI (CL) Futures
NYMEX Brent (BZ)
Futures
Prompt NGL Futures
($/gallon)
FRAC Spread
Specifications
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER:
@MPG_NatGasNews
F E B R U A R Y 5 , 2 0 1 8
N A T U R A L G A S N E W S
Close Change
0.961 (0.017)
1.023 (0.007)
1.421 (0.019)
Iso-Butane
Nat Gasoline
Mar-18
Butane
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
3/1/
2018
8/1/
2018
1/1/
2019
6/1/
2019
11/1
/201
9
4/1/
2020
9/1/
2020
2/1/
2021
7/1/
2021
12/1
/202
1
5/1/
2022
10/1
/202
2
3/1/
2023
8/1/
2023
1/1/
2024
6/1/
2024
11/1
/202
4
4/1/
2025
9/1/
2025
2/1/
2026
7/1/
2026
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
(10)
(9)
(8)
(7)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
0
4/1/
2018
8/1/
2018
12/1
/201
8
4/1/
2019
8/1/
2019
12/1
/201
9
4/1/
2020
8/1/
2020
12/1
/202
0
4/1/
2021
8/1/
2021
12/1
/202
1
4/1/
2022
8/1/
2022
12/1
/202
2
4/1/
2023
8/1/
2023
12/1
/202
3
2/2/2018 1/26/2018 1/2/2018
Month Close Change
Mar-18 65.45 (0.35)
Apr-18 65.07 (0.48)
May-18 64.61 (0.60)
Jun-18 64.11 (0.69)
Jul-18 63.55 (0.77)
Aug-18 62.95 (0.82)
Sep-18 62.35 (0.85)
Oct-18 61.77 (0.86)
Nov-18 61.24 (0.86)
Dec-18 60.73 (0.88)
Jan-19 60.24 (0.89)
Feb-19 59.73 (0.90)
Mar-19 59.28 (0.88)
Apr-19 58.84 (0.86)
May-19 58.42 (0.86)
Jun-19 58.04 (0.86)
Jul-19 57.63 (0.85)
Aug-19 57.26 (0.85)
Sep-19 56.93 (0.85)
Oct-19 56.63 (0.85)
Nov-19 56.36 (0.87)
Dec-19 56.08 (0.92)
Jan-20 55.79 (0.92)
Feb-20 55.51 (0.94)
1YR Strip 62.65 (0.75)
2018 63.18 (0.72)
5YR Strip 55.26 (0.91)
Month Close Change
Apr-18 68.58 (1.07)
May-18 68.28 (1.07)
Jun-18 67.93 (1.09)
Jul-18 67.54 (1.10)
Aug-18 67.15 (1.10)
Sep-18 66.74 (1.10)
Oct-18 66.32 (1.10)
Nov-18 65.88 (1.08)
Dec-18 65.41 (1.08)
Jan-19 65.00 (1.07)
Feb-19 64.61 (1.07)
Mar-19 64.22 (1.07)
Apr-19 63.85 (1.06)
May-19 63.49 (1.05)
Jun-19 63.12 (1.04)
Jul-19 62.83 (1.03)
Aug-19 62.51 (1.02)
Sep-19 62.18 (1.02)
Oct-19 61.86 (1.02)
Nov-19 61.52 (1.02)
Dec-19 61.14 (1.02)
Jan-20 60.86 (1.02)
Feb-20 60.59 (1.02)
Mar-20 60.32 (1.01)
1YR Strip 66.47 (1.08)
2018 67.09 (1.09)
5YR Strip 60.04 (0.99)
BULLISH
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