© 2012 Amadeus IT Group SA Thomas Drexler Amadeus Rail European Rail Travel Trends 2020
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Thomas Drexler Amadeus Rail
European Rail Travel Trends 2020
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Setting the scene
Rail 2020
Comprehensive picture of Europe’s passenger rail market
Evaluation of major rail segments
Identification of six key trends critical to the success of rail
Spotting new business opportunities for railways
Objectives of the study
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20 European countries
95% of the European passenger rail market
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High speed rail (>200km/h)
Long distance rail (>100km)
Short distance
3 segments used in the study
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Data from over 100 national and pan-European industry and government agencies
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Europe’s passenger rail market
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passengers transported in 2011
10.2 billion
609 billion passenger kilometers
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11% pax Long distance
29% 6% High speed Cross-border
based on 2011
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Russia Germany United Kingdom France
account for
60% of European passenger volume
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-30%
-27%
-14%
Ukraine
Poland
Russia
Belgium
United Kingdom
Germany
Sweden
Switzerland
+53%
+41%
+54%
+44%
+54%
Total growth in passenger numbers since 2000
These countries’ passenger number is growing again since 2011
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6 key trends
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1 Liberalisation
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
The first railway package: access to
the trans-European network on a non-
discriminatory basis.
FREIGHT The second railway
package: opening of the rail freight market to
competition as from 1 January 2007.
PASSENGER The third railway package:
open access rights for cross-border rail passenger
services including cabotage1 by 2010.
PASSENGER The fourth railway package: open up domestic passenger rail markets to competition
and enhance quality.
Should be completed by 2016-2018
2018 2016
1 Cabotage is transport of passengers between two points in the same country by a railway registered in another country
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Market closed for commercial domestic passenger services
Open access, but no external railways providing domestic passenger services Open access with external railways providing domestic passenger services
Liberalisation in Europe as of 2011
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2 New market entrants
˃ The potential impact of new entrants on the rail market seems very limited for the 2011-2015 period
˃ e.g.: Yosaria in SK, Leo Express in CZ ˃ Competition is expected to be mainly driven by incumbent rail
operators expanding their activities abroad
˃ New entrants will be cherry-picking key city pairs
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3 Completion of new high speed lines
1708 1349
650
505
660
72 312
293
New High-Speed tracks to be set up
Rail tracks to be upgraded
˃ 5000 km of new high speed tracks before 2020
˃ From 11,000 km in 2011 to 16,000 km in 2020
˃ Spain, Turkey and Russia followed by France and Germany are the main countries investing in high-speed in the next years
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4 Multimodal hubs
2
˃ Only 14 airports are connected to long distance or high-speed rail services.
˃ Demand exceeds capacity at many of Europe’s core airports.
˃ Under TEN-T, the EU supports the introduction of multimodal hubs at 37 key airports by 2030.
˃ This will provide passenger growth opportunities for rail operators, through competition and cooperation.
4 1
1
2
3
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Hubs with long-distance (or High-Speed) rail services
Hubs with local / intercity or coach services only
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5 ˃ Greater levels of
Air/Rail and Rail/Rail cooperation needed to deliver the seamless passenger experience that will drive up passenger volumes
Air-Rail and Rail-Rail Cooperation
Multi-modal hub
Cooperation
Rail links with special agreements (substitution of air service by direct rail link)
Paris
Zurich
Basel
Strasbourg
Frankfurt
Koln/Bonn
Dusseldorf
Leipzig Amsterdam
Stockholm
Brussels
+many airlines
+11 airlines
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6 Railways costs
˃ Cost bases expand, rail companies won’t be able to rely upon external economic factors to improve growth and profitability.
˃ Instead, it will be necessary to innovate and develop new services, becoming more customer-centric in the process.
˃ Many railways will have to move away from long term investments (CAPEX ) towards a more variable coast structure (OPEX).
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
Continuous growth in passenger rail market
Extensive high speed investments make rail travel
more attractive
Distribution systems grow together
Customers profit from wider distribution and better
connections
Railways and travel sellers win new customers and
gain more customer loyalty
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Publication of Rail 2020 study
White paper publication in February 2013
Will be available for free at www.amadeusrail.net
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