EUROBRISA http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br A EURO-BRAZILIAN INITIATIVE FOR IMPROVING SOUTH AMERICAN SEASONAL FORECASTS A LEVERHULME FUNDED NETWORK PROJECT http://www.leverhulme.ac.uk/ EUROBRISA Categorical Precipitation Forecast for December 2010 to February 2011 Issued in November 2010
EUROBRISA
Mar 25, 2016
Official programme for the third EUROBRISA Workshop Barcelona, 14-15 December 2010 Hosted by IC3
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Partners University of Exeter, UK
Project Leader David B. Stephenson, Rachel Lowe,
Trevor Bailey, Tim Jupp
CPTEC, Brazil Caio A.S. Coelho, Simone M.S. Costa
Met Office, UK Richard Graham,
Alberto Arribas
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil Tercio Ambrizzi
Météo France, France Michel Deque, Jef Gueremy
Federal University of Parana, Brazil Alexandre Guetter
ECMWF, EU Magdalena Balmaseda
IC3, Spain Francisco Doblas-Reyes
INMET, Brazil Antonio D. Moura
EUROBRISA is supported by
EUROBRISA http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
A EURO-BRAZILIAN INITIATIVE FOR IMPROVING
SOUTH AMERICAN SEASONAL FORECASTS
EUROBRISA For more information about EUROBRISA please contact
Professor David B. Stephenson [email protected]
Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho [email protected]
A LEVERHULME FUNDED NETWORK PROJECT
http://www.leverhulme.ac.uk/
The key idea of EUROBRISA is to improve seasonal forecasts in South America, a region where there is seasonal forecast skill and useful value.
EUROBRISA
Categorical Precipitation Forecast for December 2010 to February 2011
Issued in November 2010
Tuesday, 14 December 09:00 – 12:00
SESSION 1: INTRODUCTION
09:00-09:30 David Stephenson (U. of Exeter): “EUROBRISA – aims of this final workshop”
09:30-10:00 Caio Coelho (CPTEC): “EUROBRISA forecasting system overview”
10:00-10:30 Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3): “Beyond seasonal forecasting: annual and
interannual dynamical ensemble forecasting”
SESSION 2: SEASONAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS
11:00-11:30 Alberto Arribas (UK Met Office): “The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for
seasonal forecasting”
11:30-12:00 Jef Gueremy (Météo France): “Météo-France EUROSIP contribution: present,
future and sensitivity experiments”
PROGRAMME BARCELONA
http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
Wednesday, 15 December 09:30 – 18:00
SESSION 4: FUTURE PLANS
09:30-10:30 Discussion of key outputs from the EUROBRISA project and preparation of highlight slides for afternoon presentation
11:00-12:30 Discussion of ideas for future plans
SESSION 5: WIDER DISSEMINATION
14:00-16:00 Summary presentations of highlights by D. Stephenson, C. Coelho and R.Lowe
16:30-18:00 Panel discussion taking climate questions from the audience
Panel: D. Stephenson, C. Coelho, R. Lowe
Tuesday, 14 December 12:00 – 18:00
SESSION 3: SEASONAL FORECAST COMMUNICATION AND APPLICATION
12:00-12:30 Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF): “The new ECMWF seasonal forecasting
system (System 4)”
12:30-13:00 Tércio Ambrizzi (USP): “Teleconnection Patterns and Seasonal
Climate Prediction over South America”
13:00-14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-15:00 Alexandre Guetter (UFPR): “Generating streamflow forecasts for the
Southeastern/Southern Brazilian hydropower production using EUROBRISA’s integrated rainfall climate forecasts”
15:00-15:30 Simone Costa (CPTEC): “Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications: An illustration for crop yield prediction”
15:30-16:00 Rachel Lowe (University of Exeter/ICTP): “Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil”
16:30-17:00 Xavier Rodo (IC3): “Top-down vs bottom-up approaches in climate-sensitive disease models: implications for disease prediction”
17:00-17:30 Tim Jupp (University of Exeter): “Interpretation, verification and calibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts”
17:30-18:00 Luis Rodrigues (IC3): “From South America to European climate: Seasonal forecast assimilation for the Mediterranean area”
Aims of the initiative are
• Strengthen the collaboration and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters
• Produce improved well-calibrated real-time probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South America
• Develop real-time forecast products for non-profitable governmental use (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, agriculture and health)
14 and 15 December 2010
Tuesday, 14 December 09:00 – 12:00
SESSION 1: INTRODUCTION
09:00-09:30 David Stephenson (U. of Exeter): “EUROBRISA – aims of this final workshop”
09:30-10:00 Caio Coelho (CPTEC): “EUROBRISA forecasting system overview”
10:00-10:30 Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3): “Beyond seasonal forecasting: annual and
interannual dynamical ensemble forecasting”
SESSION 2: SEASONAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS
11:00-11:30 Alberto Arribas (UK Met Office): “The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for
seasonal forecasting”
11:30-12:00 Jef Gueremy (Météo France): “Météo-France EUROSIP contribution: present,
future and sensitivity experiments”
PROGRAMME BARCELONA
http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
Wednesday, 15 December 09:30 – 18:00
SESSION 4: FUTURE PLANS
09:30-10:30 Discussion of key outputs from the EUROBRISA project and preparation of highlight slides for afternoon presentation
11:00-12:30 Discussion of ideas for future plans
SESSION 5: WIDER DISSEMINATION
14:00-16:00 Summary presentations of highlights by D. Stephenson, C. Coelho and R.Lowe
16:30-18:00 Panel discussion taking climate questions from the audience
Panel: D. Stephenson, C. Coelho, R. Lowe
Tuesday, 14 December 12:00 – 18:00
SESSION 3: SEASONAL FORECAST COMMUNICATION AND APPLICATION
12:00-12:30 Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF): “The new ECMWF seasonal forecasting
system (System 4)”
12:30-13:00 Tércio Ambrizzi (USP): “Teleconnection Patterns and Seasonal
Climate Prediction over South America”
13:00-14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-15:00 Alexandre Guetter (UFPR): “Generating streamflow forecasts for the
Southeastern/Southern Brazilian hydropower production using EUROBRISA’s integrated rainfall climate forecasts”
15:00-15:30 Simone Costa (CPTEC): “Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications: An illustration for crop yield prediction”
15:30-16:00 Rachel Lowe (University of Exeter/ICTP): “Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil”
16:30-17:00 Xavier Rodo (IC3): “Top-down vs bottom-up approaches in climate-sensitive disease models: implications for disease prediction”
17:00-17:30 Tim Jupp (University of Exeter): “Interpretation, verification and calibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts”
17:30-18:00 Luis Rodrigues (IC3): “From South America to European climate: Seasonal forecast assimilation for the Mediterranean area”
Aims of the initiative are
• Strengthen the collaboration and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters
• Produce improved well-calibrated real-time probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South America
• Develop real-time forecast products for non-profitable governmental use (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, agriculture and health)
14 and 15 December 2010
Tuesday, 14 December 09:00 – 13:00
SESSION 1: INTRODUCTION
09:00-09:30 David Stephenson (U. of Exeter): “EUROBRISA – aims of this final workshop”
09:30-10:00 Caio Coelho (CPTEC): “EUROBRISA forecasting system overview”
10:00-10:30 Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3): “Beyond seasonal forecasting: annual and
interannual dynamical ensemble forecasting”
SESSION 2: SEASONAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS
11:00-11:30 Alberto Arribas (UK Met Office): “The GloSea4 ensemble prediction system for
seasonal forecasting”
11:30-12:00 Jef Gueremy (Météo France): “Météo-France EUROSIP contribution: present,
future and sensitivity experiments”
12:00-12:30 Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF): “The new ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
(System 4)”
12:30-13:00 Tércio Ambrizzi (USP): “Teleconnection Patterns and Seasonal Climate
Prediction over South America”
PROGRAMME BARCELONA
http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
Wednesday, 15 December 09:30 – 18:00
SESSION 4: FUTURE PLANS
09:30-10:30 Discussion of key outputs from the EUROBRISA project and preparation of highlight slides for afternoon presentation
11:00-12:30 Discussion of ideas for future plans
SESSION 5: WIDER DISSEMINATION
14:00-16:00 Summary presentations of highlights by D. Stephenson, C. Coelho and R.Lowe
16:30-18:00 Panel discussion taking climate questions from the audience
Panel: D. Stephenson, C. Coelho, R. Lowe
Tuesday, 14 December 14:30 – 18:00
SESSION 3: SEASONAL FORECAST COMMUNICATION AND APPLICATION
14:30-15:00 Alexandre Guetter (UFPR): “Generating streamflow forecasts for the
Southeastern/Southern Brazilian hydropower production using EUROBRISA’s integrated rainfall climate forecasts”
15:00-15:30 Simone Costa (CPTEC): “Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications: An illustration for crop yield prediction”
15:30-16:00 Rachel Lowe (University of Exeter/ICTP): “Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil”
16:30-17:00 Xavier Rodo (IC3): “Top-down vs bottom-up approaches in climate-sensitive disease models: implications for disease prediction”
17:00-17:30 Tim Jupp (University of Exeter): “Interpretation, verification and calibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts”
17:30-18:00 Luis Rodrigues (IC3): “From South America to European climate: Seasonal forecast assimilation for the Mediterranean area”
Aims of the initiative are
• Strengthen the collaboration and promote exchange of expertise and information between European and South American seasonal forecasters
• Produce improved well-calibrated real-time probabilistic seasonal forecasts for South America
• Develop real-time forecast products for non-profitable governmental use (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, agriculture and health)
14 and 15 December 2010
Partners University of Exeter, UK
Project Leader David B. Stephenson, Rachel Lowe,
Trevor Bailey, Tim Jupp
CPTEC, Brazil Caio A.S. Coelho, Simone M.S. Costa
Met Office, UK Richard Graham,
Alberto Arribas
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil Tercio Ambrizzi
Météo France, France Michel Deque, Jef Gueremy
Federal University of Parana, Brazil Alexandre Guetter
ECMWF, EU Magdalena Balmaseda
IC3, Spain Francisco Doblas-Reyes
INMET, Brazil Antonio D. Moura
EUROBRISA is supported by
EUROBRISA http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
A EURO-BRAZILIAN INITIATIVE FOR IMPROVING
SOUTH AMERICAN SEASONAL FORECASTS
EUROBRISA For more information about EUROBRISA please contact
Professor David B. Stephenson [email protected]
Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho [email protected]
A LEVERHULME FUNDED NETWORK PROJECT
http://www.leverhulme.ac.uk/
The key idea of EUROBRISA is to improve seasonal forecasts in South America, a region where there is seasonal forecast skill and useful value.
EUROBRISA
Categorical Precipitation Forecast for December 2010 to February 2011
Issued in November 2010
Partners University of Exeter, UK
Project Leader David B. Stephenson, Rachel Lowe,
Trevor Bailey, Tim Jupp
CPTEC, Brazil Caio A.S. Coelho, Simone M.S. Costa
Met Office, UK Richard Graham,
Alberto Arribas
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil Tercio Ambrizzi
Météo France, France Michel Deque, Jef Gueremy
Federal University of Parana, Brazil Alexandre Guetter
ECMWF, EU Magdalena Balmaseda
IC3, Spain Francisco Doblas-Reyes
INMET, Brazil Antonio D. Moura
EUROBRISA is supported by
EUROBRISA http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
A EURO-BRAZILIAN INITIATIVE FOR IMPROVING
SOUTH AMERICAN SEASONAL FORECASTS
EUROBRISA For more information about EUROBRISA please contact
Professor David B. Stephenson [email protected]
Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho [email protected]
A LEVERHULME FUNDED NETWORK PROJECT
http://www.leverhulme.ac.uk/
The key idea of EUROBRISA is to improve seasonal forecasts in South America, a region where there is seasonal forecast skill and useful value.
EUROBRISA
Categorical Precipitation Forecast for December 2010 to February 2011
Issued in November 2010
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