Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) [email protected]1 st EUROBRISA workshop, Paraty, 17-19 March 2008 Deriving South America seasonal rainfall from upper level circulation predictions
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Caio A. S. Coelho Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) [email protected] 1 st EUROBRISA.
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Caio A. S. CoelhoCentro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)
Issued: November, Valid for DJF, Hindcast period: 1987-2005
ECMWF UKMO Forecast Assimilation
Summary
• Forecast assimilation is a useful framework for exploring atmospheric teleconnections in seasonal forecasts
• ENSO atmospheric teleconnections is the main source of skill for South America rainfall predictions
• Combined and calibrated circulation derived predictions obtained with forecast assimilation have comparable level of skill to single model rainfall prediction
• Additional skill improvements can be investigated by including humidity predictions in the forecast assimilation procedure