EuFMD Impact Calculator for Nordic Baltic Seminar 12-13 October 2016, Vilnius Malin Grant, Swedish Board of Agriculture
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EuFMD Impact Calculator
for Nordic Baltic Seminar 12-13 October 2016, Vilnius
Malin Grant, Swedish Board of Agriculture
Objectives
• Inform about the FMD Impact Calulator
available for use (trial version)
• Advocate the use of the FMD Impact
Calculator for purpose of validation and
further improvement
• Raise awareness about tools and
training available at EuFMD
• Hear your feedback
Who are we? The European Commission for the Control of Foot and Mouth Disease is a commission of FAO (established 1954)
• Established to support member countries (37) in the European region to prevent and/or control FMD
• Funded by Member States and the European Commission
The Three Pillars
1) Improve readiness for FMD crisis management by member states
2) Reduce risk to Members from the FMD situation in the European
Neighbourhood
3) Greater implementation of the Global Strategy for the control of
FMD
(and at all times maintain availability of expertise required for emergency
response)
Pillar One, Component 1: Training
Training provided to member states through “training credits” system.
Each member state has a training focal point
The training provided is based on a needs assessment from Member
States
Training activities
Real Time Training
E-learning
Workshops
Workshops
Tools as well as training: equipping national veterinary services
• Tools
• Resources
• Job aids
https://eufmd.rvc.ac.uk/
EuFMD provide support and training on epidemiological modelling through
• Modelling network and • Modelling workshop
……were the development of the FMD Impact Caclulator started
What is the cost of an FMD outbreak?
Why is it helpful to know the estimated cost of an outbreak in your country?
Foot-and-Mouth Disease Impact Calculator
Developed by:
Jonathan Rushton, João Afonso, Nick Lyons, Theo Knight Jones, Will Gilbert
Questions:
The Rationale DecisionAnalysis
Cantheepidemybecontrolledquickly?Yes
No
Isthestrategyworking?Yes
No
Controlanderadica onstrategydecisionmatrix
Informa onmatrices
Virustypeandearlyepidemiccaractaris cs
Livestocksystems Ruraleconomy Exports
Stampingout
strategy
Epidemiologicalmodel
Strategy
RetainstrategyReassessthe
situa onandstrategy
Costs
Logis cs/Resources
Economicsmodel
Decision analysis matrix in an outbreak situation (Rushton, J.)
The FMD Impact Calculator is developed to assist in the decision-making on FMD control in a country which is free from FMD
FMD Impact Calculator – in summary
• Deterministic economic model • Designed to be used both in
• contingency planning and • during an outbreak
• Uses readily available data • Simple method • Quick assessment • User friendly • Qualitative assessment of indirect effects on the
wider economy
The Rationale
Infected
Outbreak
Athighriskofinfection
Outbreak
Region 1
Region 3
Region 2
Region 4
Region 5
Region 7
Region 6
Region 8
Region 10
Region 9
Region 1
Region 3
Region 2
Region 4
Region 5
Region 7
Region 6
Region 8
Region 10
Region 9
Region 9
Region 6
Region 7
Region 10
Infected
Athighriskofinfec on
Hypothetical outbreak situation
Scenario from likely outbreak based on
• epidemiological model,
• expert opinion or
• current outbreak
Control Strategies
+
+
-
The Rationale
Infected
Outbreak
Athighriskofinfection
Outbreak
Region 1
Region 3
Region 2
Region 4
Region 5
Region 7
Region 6
Region 8
Region 10
Region 9
Region 1
Region 3
Region 2
Region 4
Region 5
Region 7
Region 6
Region 8
Region 10
Region 9
Region 9
Region 6
Region 7
Region 10
Infected
Athighriskofinfec on
Hypothetical outbreak situation
For each strategy the estimated likelyhood of eradication is inserted
into the calculator
The Model
7 data groups:
1. Country Data
2. Animal Population Data
3. Data on the outbreak
4. Data on different scenarios according to outbreak response
strategy
5. Data on outbreak response strategy
6. Data on production
7. Data on staff, equipment and consumables
The Model – Input Sheet
The Model – Input Sheet
The Model – Output Sheet
1. Animal population affected
2. Costs
3. Resources needed
4. Decision Three
The Model – Output Sheet
The Model – Output Sheet
The Model – Output Sheet
The Model – Output Sheet
The Model – Output Sheet
The Model – Qualitative Matrix Sheet
The Model – Qualitative Matrix Sheet
Minor=1 Moderate=2 Major=3 Catastrophic=4
Verylikely=4 M H E ELikely=3 M H H E
Possible=2 L M H E
Unlikely=1 L L M H
Key:
L=Lowconcern
M=Moderateconcern
H=HighconcernE=Extremeconcern
LikelihoodConsequences
The Model – Qualitative Matrix Sheet
Comments?
Send an email to
[email protected] and you will be
enrolled in out network and
webinar database
How to join?
• Webinar series
• Discussion forum
• Knowledge bank
• Database of national experts for
Contingency Planning
ExCom88
THANK YOU!
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