ET2050 The SASI Model Michael Wegener ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Milan, 7-8 February 2013.

ET2050The SASI Model

Michael Wegener

ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Milan, 7-8 February 2013

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The SASI Model

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The SASI model

There are three methods to model the impacts ofpolicies on regional economic development:• Multiplier effects of infrastructure invest

ments (Aschauer, 1993)• Regional production functions incorporating

infrastructure as production factor (Jochimsen, 1966; Biehl, 1986, 1991)

• Interregional trade flows as a function of interregional transport costs (Peschel, 1981; Bröcker, 1995) and input output linkages (Echenique, 1990) and economies of scale (Krugman, Venables,1995)

SASI

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The SASI model

The SASI model is a recursive dynamic simulationmodel of socio economic development of regions inEurope under assumptions about • European economic development and

external net migration • European transport policies (TEN-T) and

regional subsidies (EFRE, CAP)

The SASI model differs from other regional economicmodels by modelling not only production (thedemand side of regional labour markets) but alsopopulation (the supply side of labour markets).

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Regional production function

In state of the art models of regional development based on production functions the classic production factors land, labour and capital are replaced by location factors, such as:• Economic structure• Productivity• Accessibility• Labour supply• Services• Settlement structure• Research and development• Education• Quality of life

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Regional production function

Extended production function:

where Ai is potential accessibility:

...

iiiii AKRLQ Production

AccessibilityLand

Labour Capital

Others

Travel cost betweenregions i and j

j

ijji cWA )(exp

Destinationsin region j

Accessibilityof region i

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Regional net migration function

Net migration function:

where

• qi(t–3) is GDP per capita of region i• q(t-3) is average European GDP per capita• vi(t–3) is quality of life of region i• v(t-3) is average European quality of life … all lagged by three years

5.1)3(

)3(5.1

)3(

)3()(

tv

tv

tq

tqtm ii

i

Attractiveness as place to work

Attractivenessas place to live

Net migrationof region iin year t

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GDP

AccessibilityProduction

function

Employment

Migrationfunction

PopulationIncome

Labourforce

Unemploy­ment

SASImodel Transfer

policiesTransportpolicies

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SASImodel

RegionsRegions

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The AlpenCors Project:a Regional Application

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The AlpenCorS project (2004 2005)

The Interreg III B programme "Alpine Space" (2000 2006) aimed at developing a concept for economic and spatial development in the pan European Corridor V between France, Italy, Slovenia and Austria.

The project AlpenCorS ("Alpen Corridor South") focused on the central segment of the corridors south of the Alps. The SASI model was to assess the effects of the intersection with Corridor I, the Brenner Corridor.

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GDP­per­capita­(EU27+2­=­100)Scenario­000­2021Reference­Scenario

Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

GDP­per­capita­(EU27+2­=­100)Scenario­000­2021Reference­Scenario

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Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

Accessibility­road/rail/air­travelScenario­0002021Reference­Scenario

Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

Accessibility­road/rail/air­travelScenario­AS1­v.­0002021­­Brenner­tunnel­effect

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Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

Accessibility­road­freightScenario­AS1­v.­0002021­­Brenner­tunnel­effect

Trento

Bolzano

Venezia

Zürich

Torino

Milano

Lyon

Wien München

Strasbourg

Ljubljana

GDP­per­capita­(EU27+2­=­100)­Scenario­AS1­v.­0002021Brenner­tunnel­effect

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The STEPs Project:a European Application

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The STEPs project (2004 2006)

The EU 6th RTD Framework project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) developed and assessed possible scenarios for the EU transport system and energy supply of the future.

In the project five urban/regional models were applied to forecast the long term economic, social and environmental impacts of different scenarios of fuel price increases and different combinations of infrastructure, technology and demand regulation policies.

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STEPs Scenarios

The scenarios combined three rates of energy price increases with three sets of policies:

Fuel price increase

+1% p.a. +4% p.a. +7% p.a.

Do nothing A 1 B 1 C 1

Business as usual A0 B0 C0

Infrastructure & technology A1 B1 C1

Demand regulation A2 B2 C2

All policies A3 B3 C3

* € of 2008 per litre A 1 Reference Scenario

2030

1.60 €*2030

3.33 €*2030

6.80 €*

2030

3.35 €*2030

6.95 €*2030

23.25 €*

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European policy scenarios

A1 C1 Infrastructure and technology Petrol/Diesel per km (down to 4 % p.a.) Alternative vehicles/fuels (up to 33 %) European rail speed (up to +2 % p.a.) Regional rail speed (up to +1.7 % p.a.) Rail freight speed (up to +2 % p.a.)

A2 C2 Demand regulation Fuel tax (up to +5 % p.a.) Kerosene tax (up to 200 % of petrol tax) Road pricing (up to +10 % p.a.) Public transport fares (down to 1.7 % p.a.) Car/lorry cost per km (up to +3 % p.a.) Rail freight cost (down to 1.5 % p.a.)

A3 C3 All policies

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A 1Scenario A 1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travel (million)in year 2031

180 200160 180140 160120 140100 120 80 100 60 80 40 60 20 40 0 20

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Scenario A1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travel Difference fromScenarioA 1 2031 (%) 40 50

30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 30 50 40

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Scenario B1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travelDifference fromScenarioA 12031 (%) 40 50

30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 30 50 40

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Scenario C1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travelDifference fromScenarioA 12031 (%) 40 50

30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 30 50 40

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Scenario A 1GDP per capita2031 (€ of 2005)

54 60 48 54 42 48 36 42 30 36 24 30 18 24 12 18 6 12 0 6

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Scenario A1GDP per capitaDifference fromScenario A 12031 (%)

8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 4 2 6 4 8 6 10 8

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Scenario B1GDP per capitaDifference fromScenario A 12031 (%)

8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 4 2 6 4 8 6 10 8

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Scenario C1GDP per capitaDifference fromScenario A 12031 (%)

8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 4 2 6 4 8 6 10 8

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The SASI Model in ET2050

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Ongoing model developments

• Extension of forecasting horizon from 2030 to 2050

• Conversion of the region system to the 2006 NUTS 3 classification

• Higher spatial resolution in Croatia and other Western Balkan countries

• Simple model of long distance passenger and freight transport

• Calculation of environmental indicators as energy consumption and CO2 emissions of transport

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Questions answered

How will European• infrastructure investments (TEN T)• regional subsidies (EFRE, CAP)• rising energy costs

affect • regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity?

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Baseline Scenario

The Baseline Scenario for 2030 and 2050 is basedon BAU assumptions about • European economic development,• European net migration,• European transport policies,• European regional subsidies.

and will produce forecasts of:• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity.

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A Scenarios ("MEGAs")

The exploratory A Scenarios ("MEGAs") will differfrom the baseline scenario by assumptions aboutEuropean transport policies and regionalsubsidies that support the concentration ofeconomic activities and population in the majormetropolitan areas and will forecast:• European economic development,• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity.

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B Scenarios ("Cities")

The exploratory B Scenarios ("Cities") will differ from the baseline scenario by assumptions aboutEuropean transport policies and regionalsubsidies that support the concentration ofeconomic activities and population in the majorEuropean cities and will forecast:• European economic development,• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity

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C Scenarios ("Regions")

The exploratory C Scenarios ("Regions") will differfrom the baseline scenario by assumptions aboutEuropean transport policies and regional subsidies that support the development ofeconomic activities and population in small towns and rural regions and will forecast:• European economic development,• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity

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Exploratory scenarios

In addition to the criteria for the definition of scenariosproposed above, also other criteria might be applied todefine the exploratory scenarios:• They should be differentiated in space, i.e. address

the European, national and regional scale.• They should be differentiated in time, i.e. account for

different phases of development of countries.• They should be combined with the same framework assumptions as the baseline scenario.• In addition, they can be combined with alternative framework assumptions.

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Alternative framework conditions

The exploratory scenarios using the same framework conditions as the Baseline Scenario can be combinedwith alternative framework conditions:

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Ranking of scenarios

It is very likely that the exploratory scenarios perform differently with respect to major goals of the EU:

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Results (1)

• Population indicators: Population by age, sex, nationality, labour force participation, education, net migration and net commuting by NUTS 3 region per year

• Economic indicators: GDP by industry, by worker, by capita, employment by industry and unemploy ment by NUTS 3 region per year

• Accessibility indicators: Accessibility by type (travel/goods) and mode (road/rail, road/rail/air) by NUTS 3 region per year

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Results (2)

• Transport indicators: Travel and goods flows between NUTS 3 regions by mode per year.

• Environmental indictors: Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of transport between NUTS 3 region per year.

• Cohesion indicators: Cohesion and polycentricity indicators of accessibility and GDP per capita of NUTS 3 regions per year

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Typical graphical output

• Time series diagrams by country or macro region by scenario

• Maps indicators by NUTS 3 region by year indicator differences between scenarios by NUTS 3 region per year

• 3D surfaces indicators by NUTS 3 region per year differences between scenarios by NUTS 3 region per year

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Wegener, M., Bökemann, D. (1998): SASI Model: Model Structure. Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 40. Dortmund: Institute of Spatial Planning, University of Dortmund. http://www.raumplanung.uni dortmund.de/irpud/ fileadmin/irpud/content/documents/publications/ber40.pdf.

Wegener, M. (2008): SASI Model Description. Working Paper 08/01. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Stadt und Regionalforschung. http://www.spiekermann wegener. de/mod/pdf/AP_0801.pdf.

Fiorello, D., Huismans, G., López, E., Marques, C., Steen berghen, T., Wegener, M., Zografos, G. (2006): Transport Strategies under the Scarcity of Energy Supply. Final Report of the EU project STEPs – Scenarios for the Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects, edited by A. Monzon and A. Nuijten. Den Haag: Buck Consultants International. http://www.steps eu.com/reports.htm.

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