ET2050 Transport Trends and Scenarios Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener (S&W) ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012
ET2050 Transport Trends and Scenarios
Michael WegenerSpiekermann & Wegener (S&W)
ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012
2
EU transport trends 1995-2010
Sourc
e:
Eu
ropean
Com
mis
sion,
2011
)
3
Expected transport trends (Germany)
Sourc
e:
AR
L, 2
011)
4
Transport in ET2050 scenarios
Because of the importance of transport for spatialdevelopment, transport should be a component of all ET2050 scenarios.
The transport component of the baseline scenarioand the exploratory scenarios should consist of twokinds of assumptions:• assumptions about developments exogenous to transport and • assumptions about European transport policy.
However, assumptions about the impacts of these assumptions should not be made: the prediction oftheir impacts should be left to the models.
5
Baseline scenario: exogenous developments
For the baseline scenario in transport the followingassumptions about exogenous developments willhave to be made:• Economy: assumptions about the speed of recov-
ery of the European economy• Energy: assumptions about the speed of energy
price increases• Climate: assumptions about policies to achieve
the CO2 reduction targets of the EU
• Demography: assumptions about immigration policies within and into the EU
6
Baseline scenario: transport policy
For the baseline scenario in transport the followingassumptions about transport policy will have to be made:• Will the new TEN-T Guidelines come into effect?• To what degree will the core network defined in
the Guidelines be implemeted by 2030? • To what degree will the comprehensive network
defined in them be implemented by 2050?• Or will the effects of the economic and fiancial crisis
lead to a shift of transport investments towards growth-oriented projects?
7
Exploratory scenarios: transport policy
For the definition of the exploratory scenarios, thefollowing options in transport policy exist:• Transport infrastructure: assumptions about the
selection of TEN-T projects: - priority to major metropolitan areas?- priority to small and medium-sized cities?- priority to rural/peripheral regions?- priority to road or rail?• Transport demand management: assumptions
about positive or negative monetary incentives, such as fuel taxes or road user charges
8
Wegener, M. (2012): Thematic Report on Transport. Draft 12/03/2012. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research. http://www.et2050.eu/ europe_2050/TechNotes/ET2050_DiscNote17_Transport_Report_(v12032012).pdf
More information