ET2050 Baseline 2030. Project Specification Approach.

ET2050Baseline 2030

Project Specification Approach

Complementary approaches to define Scenarios

Speculative Narratives as starting point to Explore distant Futures. Narratives use to be Normative Scenarios, or Visions (Desired Scenarios). The consistency (as well as likelyhood) of Speculative Narratives can be analysed typically by backcast modelling. It is mostly a policy-based approach.

Present Situation and Predictions, as starting point to define Predictive Scenarios, or possible futures. It is mostly a quantitative,scientific-based approach, using forecast modelling tools.

•A Baseline is a projection of current trends in absence of neither new policies nor unexpected events.

•A Baseline should strive to generate consensus, to be a useful reference for all.

•A Baseline is realistic but not necessarily the most likely future

•A Baseline will not likely comply with most official political targets

•A Baseline is not the “Worse-case” Scenario.

What’s a Baseline scenario?

Baseline definition

Present Situtation as starting pointNo significant change in Policies (Limited Adjustments) Framework Conditions as a consensus

Baseline Key Directions to 2050

• Ageing Population: 540 Minh (>65 from 16% to 27%, stable migration 1,5 M/year)

• Relative Economic Decline: €24.000billion (from 2,3% growth 1970-2010 to 1,4%)

• Growing inequities: 10% with higher GDP/capita captures more GDP growth

• Insufficient Technologic Innovation: R&D budget around 2% of GDP

• More diversified energy sources: 26% RES (Oil price from € 67 / barrel to € 138)

• Climate Change: 35% GHG reduction since 1990 (80% reduction target in force)

• Subverted proximities: 8.600 Bpaxkm within EU (0,7%), 7.000 Btnkm (1,6%) Gateways

• Increasing Urbanisation: 90% urban pop. (50 cities>1 Minh), periurbanisation

• Towards a Multiple-Speed Europe: limited territorial governance structures, EU 1%

• Limited public expenditure (50% 2010, 40% 2050), Public Debt (70% to 50%)

• Not significant progress in relation to the Territorial Agenda main goals

Key Assumptions of Baseline

Total population 1995-2050(Eurostat EUROPOP 2010)

Migrations 1995-2050(ECFIN Ageing Report 2012)

GDP 1995-2050(ECFIN Ageing Report 2012)

Oil price 1995-2050(US EIA, AEO2012 Reference case)

Key Assumptions of Baseline

World Reference for Baseline

• Population: 9.200 M (Europe from 15% in 1950 to 7% today and 6% in 2050)

• Urban population: 69% (Europe 89% in 2050)

• GDP: € 135.000 billion (Europe from 39% in 1950 to 30% today and 18% in 2050)

• Trade: € 154.000 billion (Europe from 17% in 1950 to 15% today and 9% in 2050)

• Maritime transport: € 145.000 billion ton·km (average 3,7% annual growth, EU 2%)

• Air transport: € 32.000 billion RPK (average 5,0% annual growth, EU 3,5%)

• Tourism: 3.250 million visitors (Europe from 90% in 1950, 45% today and 27% 2050)

• Energy Consumption: 24.300 MTOE (Europe 28% in 1950, 17% today, 9% in 2050)

• CO2 emissions: 64.000 Mton (Europe from 18% in 1950, 15% today, and 5% in 2050)

Baseline Reference World Indicators

Overall EU role in the World 1950-2050 (Europe's share in the World)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population GDP TradeTourism Energy consumption CO2

Overall role of Europe 1950-2050 (Europe share of the World)

Promotion of MEGAs

Promotion of FUAs

Promotion of SM Towns

Worse-Case: Fragmented Europe

Forecast exercise 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES, MASST, MOSAIC, METRONOMICA and SASI models

Present Situation as starting pointPolicies oriented to promote alternative spatial structuresFramework Conditions as BaselineAnalysis of “Scenario Variants” (e.g. Worse-Case Scenario)

ET2050 Expectations for Scenarios – Key Directions (DRAFT)(Associated Spatial Development Patterns)

Promotion of MEGAs Promotion of FUAs Promotion of SM Towns

Backcast exercise 2050-2030 by Foresight modelling tools

Speculative Narratives as starting point Policies oriented to promote alternative spatial structuresFramework Conditions different than BaselineWorld Framework Conditions introducedAnalysis of “Wild Cards”

ET2050 Draft Scenarios (trend expectations per scenario, as an example)

From the Project Specifications:

The VISION should provide a coherent framework to formulate territorial policy actions at different policymaking levels and to assess and support policy initiatives from other sectors, all with a European perspective.

The VISION is expected to have a strategic character that allows giving direction to the policy debate on territorial development. This project aims at supporting policymakers in formulating this long-term integrated and coherent vision on the development of the European territory

A VISION is a dream of a future “ideal Europe”

The VISION for 2050

The European Territorial VISION could include three components:

1. A set of commonly agreed general territorial objectives and principles, with quantified goals.

2. A series of (non‐binding) policy and governance recommendations likely to make the realisation of the VISION possible

3. A series of schematic maps of the European territory displaying strategic, structuring elements

The VISION for 2050

ET2050Baseline 2030