Estimation of future changes in Estimation of future changes in extreme climate events for the extreme climate events for the user and user and decision-making communities decision-making communities Clare Goodess WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September 2010 WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September 2010 Climatic Research Unit, UEA, UK
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Estimation of future changes in extreme climate events for the user and decision-making communities Clare Goodess WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September.
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Estimation of future changes in extreme Estimation of future changes in extreme climate events for the user and climate events for the user and decision-making communities decision-making communities
Clare Goodess
WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September 2010WCRP-UNESCO workshop, Paris, 28 September 2010
local/regional authorities, service/building engineers, architects, small businesses, consultants, professional bodies
o Impact sectors: water, agriculture, health, tourism and visitor economy, insurance, energy, transport…………………………
– National climate change projections (UKCP09)– Urban system modelling– Development of codes of practice (building services)– Assessment of vulnerability to current extremes– Integrated assessments based on indicators (Mediterranean)
DiverseDepends on application
UKCP09 national climate change projectionsUKCP09 national climate change projections
weathergenerator
dailytime series
probabilisticprojections
over land
monthly/ seasonal
PDFs
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
Tailoring of information: extremes (spatial & temporal scales),
processes, presentation (tools)
e.g., SCORCHIO:the Urban Heat Island and the SCHEEME decision-making tool
McCarthy et al., IJC, submitted
Summer simulation (May-September) Ringway dry bulb temperature and solar radiation )
City Scale Visualisations: Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability)
Measures of Vulnerability
Measures of Exposure
Street and building wall orientations andsky view factor estimation (JMW)
Automation of building classifications
Exposure mapping
Addition of height data (CR)
CASE STUDY ANALYSIS
Building function: classifications & ages
Canyon ModelCurrent and future what-if scenariosCase study form - temperature-related
urban morphological properties
Climate Models
Downscaling5km output Weather
GeneratorCurrent baseline; Future (2050s current urban & current anthropogenic heat);
Future (2050s current urban & 3x anthropogenic heat), Mean Tmax/Tmin JJA, DJF, 50th %-ile 95th%-ile, 99th %-ile TMax
25km output
Heat emissions estimation model
Empirical model of current temperatures
Transect data collection
Risk map
Design Summer Years (DSYs) for use in building performance models
Challenges for the user community:
• Current DSYs don’t represent present extremes• Need to handle climate variability as well as change• Need to work with uncertainty (e.g., multiple emissions scenarios)• And now need to work with probabilities (UKCP09)• Range of ‘users’: engineers/consultants, architects & their clients
And for ‘producers’: e.g., weighted cooling degree hours
CIBSE TM36, 2005
DSY: April-Sept mean TMid-year of the upper quartileBased on 1983-2004
... to consequences
Climate Change
Potential impacts on:
Markets
Logistics
Process
Finance
People
Premises
Management response
Reputational risk
Health & safety risk
Strategic riskFinancial risk
Operational risk
Environmental risk
Impacts on
MarketsFinancesLogisticsProcessesPremisesPeople
Consequences for organisation & stakeholders
Can help local authorities to achieve National Indicator NI188 ‘Planning to adapt to climate change’
Local climate impacts profile (LCLIP)
Business areas climate impacts assessment (BACLIAT)
Understanding the problem: from climate ...
Trends
Hotter, drier summers
Milder, wetter winters
Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours
Sea level rise
EventsHeat
waves
Droughts
Floods
Fewer cold snaps
Storms
ImpactsDamage to physical assets
Loss of access to buildings
Effects on biological/ industrial processes
Uncomfortable indoor environments
Damage to critical infrastructure
Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes
Changing commodity prices/ availability
Consequences
Loss of business continuity
Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs
Health/ comfort implications for employees
Increased/ decreased productivity
Changing markets
Effect on reputation
Extremes are at the heart of many impact assessments and moves towards adaptation
Tools such as UKCP09 weather generator and threshold detector can
inform LCLIPs/BACLIATs
• But can’t provide information about all requested extremes (especially compound events)• And some problems with persistence of extremes• And equivalent information from local observations is often not available
Average annual number of heat waves (Heat Weather Watch Plan definition: Tn > 15°C & Tx > 30°C for at least 2 consecutive days) for Cambridge for baseline (left) and future periods (2020s medium emissions; 2050s low, medium and high emissions). Upper and lower 95% confidence intervals across 100 weather generator runs/change factors are shown.0
1
2020s
2050s61-90
L M H
http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ Final conference: Giannakopoulos