The WCRP in support of the IPCC

The WCRP in support of the The WCRP in support of the IPCCIPCC

David CarsonDavid Carson

Director WCRPDirector WCRP

SBSTA17, New Delhi, IndiaSBSTA17, New Delhi, India

28 October 200228 October 2002

Research priorities Research priorities

Detecting, attributing and Detecting, attributing and projecting the magnitude and projecting the magnitude and extent of human induced climate extent of human induced climate change, regional variations and change, regional variations and related sea-level riserelated sea-level rise– input to the IPCC, UNFCCC and other input to the IPCC, UNFCCC and other

ConventionsConventions

CLIVAR 1995

GEWEX 1988

SPARC 1992

WOCE 1990-2002

ACSYS/CLIC 1994–2003/2000

TOGA 1985-1994

WGNEWGCM

CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)

CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system.

CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales.

http://www.clivar.org

Change of Atlantic circulationChange of Atlantic circulation

A FULL SHUT-DOWN CANNOT A FULL SHUT-DOWN CANNOT BE EXCLUDED BEYOND 2100BE EXCLUDED BEYOND 2100

Stocker et al, IPCC, 2001

GEWEX PHASE IIGEWEX PHASE II

Overall guiding goals (JSC-XXII, March Overall guiding goals (JSC-XXII, March 2001)2001)

production of consistent descriptions of Earth’s energy production of consistent descriptions of Earth’s energy budget and water cycle and their variability and budget and water cycle and their variability and trends, and data sets for validation of modelstrends, and data sets for validation of models

enhancing understanding of how energy and water enhancing understanding of how energy and water cycle processes contribute to climate feedbackscycle processes contribute to climate feedbacks

developing improved parametrizations encapsulating developing improved parametrizations encapsulating these processes and feedbacks for atmospheric these processes and feedbacks for atmospheric circulation modelscirculation models

Why a CEOP ?

Timing of new satellites and GEWEX CSEs provides opportunity for significant benefit from a more

coordinated observation period.

Monsoon Experiment inSouth America (MESA)

North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

(MDB)

Cloud-climate forcing and Cloud-climate forcing and feedbackfeedback

representation of cloud-climate forcing and feedback representation of cloud-climate forcing and feedback in models - one of the most uncertain areas in climate in models - one of the most uncertain areas in climate simulations and projections of climate changesimulations and projections of climate change

key to progress - combination of modelling and key to progress - combination of modelling and observations to establish a (predictive) understanding observations to establish a (predictive) understanding of relationship between clouds and the circulation, of relationship between clouds and the circulation, and of many other feedbacks/ relationships involvedand of many other feedbacks/ relationships involved

CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATIONCHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION between the present day and the middle of the 21st between the present day and the middle of the 21st

centurycentury

Global climate model Regional climate model

Predictability Assessment of Predictability Assessment of the Climate Systemthe Climate System

FociFoci

The determination of the temporal and spatial patterns of The determination of the temporal and spatial patterns of climate variationsclimate variations

The determination of the extent of useful skill in The determination of the extent of useful skill in predicting monthly to decadal variations in climatepredicting monthly to decadal variations in climate

The determination of the extent to which we can design The determination of the extent to which we can design global models to correctly reproduce the pdfs of sub-global models to correctly reproduce the pdfs of sub-decadal variability in climatedecadal variability in climate

Predictability Assessment of Predictability Assessment of the Climate Systemthe Climate System

FociFoci

The determination of the temporal and spatial The determination of the temporal and spatial changes in these pdfs in a changing climate changes in these pdfs in a changing climate [regional manifestations of climate change][regional manifestations of climate change]

The development of data management and analysis The development of data management and analysis systems and of predictive models, and contribution systems and of predictive models, and contribution to the development of observational data systemsto the development of observational data systems

IPCC WGI TARIPCC WGI TARHigh-priority areas for actionHigh-priority areas for action

Modelling and process studies:Modelling and process studies:

-- Improve understanding of the mechanisms and Improve understanding of the mechanisms and factors factors leading to changes in radiative leading to changes in radiative forcingforcing

-- Understand and characterise the important Understand and characterise the important unresolved unresolved processes and feedbacks, both processes and feedbacks, both physical and physical and biogeochemical, in the biogeochemical, in the climate systemclimate system

IPCC WGI TARIPCC WGI TARHigh-priority areas for actionHigh-priority areas for action

Modelling and process studies (ctd.):Modelling and process studies (ctd.):

-- Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate climate projections and scenarios, projections and scenarios, including long term ensemble including long term ensemble simulations simulations using complex models using complex models

-- Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and Improve the integrated hierarchy of global and regional regional climate models with a focus on the climate models with a focus on the simulation of climate simulation of climate variability, regional variability, regional climate changes and extreme eventsclimate changes and extreme events

-- Link more effectively models of the physical Link more effectively models of the physical climate and climate and the biogeochemical system, and in the biogeochemical system, and in turn improve coupling turn improve coupling with descriptions of human with descriptions of human activitiesactivities