In the Asian Century, there's no such thing as success without sacrifice James Laurenceson, Senior Lecturer at th Queensland, reveals his concerns over th THE CONVERSATION y 2025, Asia will account for nearly half of world output. Even under conservative growth scenarios, three out of the worlds five largest economies will be in Asia. By the same year, income per person in Australia will be in the world's top 10, up r8% from its current level. It will be Asia's economic rise that will underpin Australia’s prosperity. Such are the bright economic possibilities painted by the fed- eral government’s white paper on Australia in the Asian Century. The White Paper is the natural successor to Ross Garnaut’s Australia and the North EastAsian Ascendancy, a report commissioned by the Federal Government in the late 1980s. Both are couched in the same terms: Asia’s economic rise is a great opportunity for Australia, but there is no inevit- ability about Australian success. This time around, the White Paper emphasises that Asia should 6 E Australia's Engagement with Asia no longer be viewed primarily as a source of cheap labour. Rather, what should capture our economic imagination is that it will be home to most of the worlds urban middle class. This group will not only demand our natural res- ources, but also high value-added manufactured goods, and services such as education and tourism to name but a few. By 2025, even under conservative growth scenarios, three out of the world’s five largest economies will be in Asia. There is much to like about the White Paper. it focuses on the right part of the world over the right time horizon. Rather than agonising over whether Greece will default, or what China’s growth rate next quarter will be, it focuses on long—term trends about e School of Economics at the University of e federal government's White Paper which we can be more confide and which ultimately are far In» important for our national wellbei Nonetheless,afterhaving peru: the document, 1 had three nagg: concerns. First, in introducing the wh paper, the Prime Minister ma much of the fact that Australia v embarking on the Asian Century frt aposition ofstrength.Unfortunate suchoptimismsometimes borders delusion; we would be better serv by a greater sense of urgency. Our trade links with Asia we trumpeted. lndeed, the white pap undertook to further strength< these links to account for at lea one—third of GDP by 2025, up fro the present level ofone—quarter. B what about our investment linkage which are so vibrant with respect 1 the US and Europe, but which lag 5 badly with respect toAsia?There wi nothing close to even an aspiration. numerical target for investment. The White Paper merely observe that “investment links betwee Australia and the region are loi relative toourtrade relationship" an contended that “two-way investmer links with our region should continu to grow over time”. Can we reall simply assume that one day they wil catch up? Asia’s economic rise is not a nev phenomenon. Yet according to AB! data, over the past decade the fiV( key countries identifi ed in the whiti paper — China, India, Indonesia Japan and Korea — only accountec for 9.6% ofthe increase in the foreigr capital stock in Australia. lflapan is taken out of the calculation, then the number falls to just 3.3%. These figures are alarming and certainly do not constitute starting from a position ofstrength. Second, in my view, the White Paper tended to understate the challenges that many Australian Issues in Sorietv l \/QLI_ima atzn
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In the Asian Century, there's nosuch thing as success without sacrificeJames Laurenceson, Senior Lecturer at thQueensland, reveals his concerns over th
THE CONVERSATIONy 2025, Asia will account fornearly half of world output.Even under conservative growth
scenarios, three out ofthe worlds fivelargest economies will be in Asia.
By the same year, income perperson in Australia will be in theworld's top 10, up r8% from its currentlevel.
It will be Asia's economic rise thatwill underpin Australias prosperity.
Such are the bright economicpossibilities painted by the fed-eral governments white paper onAustralia in the Asian Century.
The White Paper is the naturalsuccessor to Ross Garnauts Australiaand the North EastAsian Ascendancy,a report commissioned by the FederalGovernment in the late 1980s. Bothare couched in the same terms: Asiaseconomic rise is a great opportunityfor Australia, but there is no inevit-ability about Australian success.
This time around, the WhitePaper emphasises that Asia should
6 E Australia's Engagement with Asia
no longer be viewed primarily asa source of cheap labour. Rather,what should capture our economicimagination is that it will be hometo most of the worlds urbanmiddle class. This group will notonly demand our natural res-ources, but also high value-addedmanufactured goods, and servicessuch as education and tourism toname but a few.
By 2025, even underconservative growth
scenarios, three out ofthe worlds five largest
economies will be in Asia.
There is much to like about theWhite Paper.
it focuses on the right part of theworld over the right time horizon.Rather than agonising over whetherGreece will default, or what Chinasgrowth rate next quarter will be, itfocuses on longterm trends about
e School of Economics at the University ofe federal government's White Paper
which we can be more confideand which ultimately are far Inimportant for our national wellbei
Nonetheless,afterhaving peru:the document, 1 had three nagg:concerns.
First, in introducing the whpaper, the Prime Minister mamuch of the fact that Australia vembarking on the Asian Century frtaposition ofstrength.Unfortunatesuchoptimismsometimes bordersdelusion; we would be better servby a greater sense of urgency.
Our trade links with Asia wetrumpeted. lndeed, the white papundertook to further strength
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