Environmental and Economic Implications of Phasing Out Solid Fuels Used for Cooking in China Eric D. Larson Research Engineer/Associated Faculty Princeton Environmental Institute Princeton University, USA Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China 17-19 October 2004 Oslo: Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
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Environmental and Economic Implications of Phasing Out Solid Fuels Used for Cooking in China Eric D. Larson Research Engineer/Associated Faculty Princeton.
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Environmental and Economic Implications of Phasing Out Solid Fuels Used for Cooking in China
Eric D. LarsonResearch Engineer/Associated FacultyPrinceton Environmental InstitutePrinceton University, USA
Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China17-19 October 2004Oslo: Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Outline
• Indoor air pollution
• Global warming
• Challenge of replacing solid cooking fuels
• Prospects for increasing LPG use
• Prospects for dimethyl ether (DME)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Town gas Natural gas LPG Kerosene(wick stove)
Coalbriquettes
(metal stove)
Honeycombcoal (metal,improved)
Honeycombcoal (metal
stove)
Coal powder(metal stove)
Fuelwood(Indian metal
stove)
Brushwood(Indian metal
stove)
PIC
to
air
(g
ram
s/M
J o
f h
ea
t to
po
t)Pollution from Cooking Stoves/Fuels
(measured emissions to room air from flue-less stoves in China)
PIC = Products of Incomplete Combustion
Source: Zhang, J., Smith, K.R., et al., 2000, “Greenhouse gases and other airborne pollutants from household stoves in China: a database for emission factors,” Atmos. Environ. 34: 4537-4549.
As cited by Reddy, Williams, Johansson, 1997, Energy After Rio, UNDP, New York.
Approximate Total Global Human Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution
Global Warming Potentials of Combustion Products (relative to CO2)
Source: Bond, Venkataraman, and Masera, 2004, “Global atmospheric impacts of residential fuels,” Energy for Sustainable Development, VIII(3): 115-126
Global Warming Commitment of Cooking Fuels/Technologies (estimates)
Source: Bond, Venkataraman, and Masera, 2004, “Global atmospheric impacts of residential fuels,” Energy for Sustainable Development, VIII(3): 115-126
20-year GWP 100-year GWP
global warming commitment, kg CO2-equivalent per GJ delivered to pot
(from biomass, if biomass obtained by deforestation)
(cooling impact)
Indicative Change in Radiative Impact Compared with Traditional Fuels
Source: Bond, Venkataraman, and Masera, 2004, “Global atmospheric impacts of residential fuels,” Energy for Sustainable Development, VIII(3): 115-126
Averages taken from previous GWC estimates: Traditional stoves = average of 3 “traditional” cases; Improved stoves = average of 3 “improved” cases; Charcoal = average of 2 “charcoal” cases; Clean fossil fuels = average of kerosene, LPG, and natural gas.
“Solving” the Problem
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5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Town gas Natural gas LPG Kerosene(wick stove)
Coalbriquettes
(metal stove)
Honeycombcoal (metal,improved)
Honeycombcoal (metal
stove)
Coal powder(metal stove)
Fuelwood(Indian metal
stove)
Brushwood(Indian metal
stove)
PIC
to
air
(g
ram
s/M
J o
f h
ea
t to
po
t)Pollution from Cooking Stoves/Fuels
(measured emissions to room air from flue-less stoves in China)
PIC = Products of Incomplete Combustion
Source: Zhang, J., Smith, K.R., et al., 2000, “Greenhouse gases and other airborne pollutants from household stoves in China: a database for emission factors,” Atmos. Environ. 34: 4537-4549.
Efficiencies of Cooking Stoves/Fuels(from standardized meal cooking tests)
Source: Dutt, G. S., and N. H. Ravindranath, 1993, “Bioenergy: direct applications in cooking,” Renewable Energy, H. Kelly, T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams (eds.), Island Press, Washington, DC, pp. 653-697.
How “easily” can the dirty cooking problem be solved?
• Goldemberg et al. (2004) indicate that 2.6 billion people cook with solid fuels today worldwide. They estimate 35 kg/capita/year of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) could meet basic cooking needs.
• 35 kg LPG x 46 MJ/kg = 1.61 GJ/year/cap.• 1.61 GJ/yr/cap x 2.6 billion = 4.2 billion GJ/year (or
100 million toe, 143 million tce).• This is 1% of global commercial energy use in 2003. • The corresponding figure for China is 2.6%.
What is the value of clean cooking fuel?
WB* has estimated rural indoor air pollution costs $4 - $11 billion/year.
This is $22 - $63/GJ of fuel required.
Retail price of LPG in rural China is 50-60 Yuan RMB for a 15 kg bottle. (US$8.8 to $10.6/GJ).
Coal, Biomass LPG
Producer Gas
* Johnson, Liu, Newfarmer, Clear Water, Blue Skies, China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.
Barriers to Cleaner Cooking• “Natural” progression up the “energy ladder” (dung/crop residues
• Low/zero private cost for biomass/coal use. External costs (e.g., health damages) not reflected in private price of solid fuels, so difficult to compete with cleaner fuels that carry higher private cost.
• Cooking is women’s domain, but women are not generally the decision makers regarding cooking fuels.
• Dirty fuels are not politically consequential. (In recent Indian elections, roads, water, and electricity were swing issues. Cooking fuel was not.)
• Governments of industrialized countries may not appreciate the links between dirty fuels in developing countries and impacts on their own countries.
• Most energy-related development assistance over the past 30 years has focused on electrification, and this continues to be the case.
• Where heating is done with solid fuels, adopting clean cooking fuel will only partially improve the situation.
Average annual consumption growth of 15.7% per year, 1995-2001
(including some from imported crude oil)
China’s LPG Sources
Supplying 800 million people with 35 kg/cap/yr of LPG would require 28 million tons of LPG (double current consumption). Much of the additional supply would need to be imported.
中国原油和油品进口增长情况Chinese Oil Imports since 1988
Crude oil
原油
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1988 1993 1998 2003
百万吨
Mln
t
其它国家 Others
前苏联 FSU
苏丹 Sudan
安哥拉 Angola
越南 Vietnam
印度尼西亚 Indonesia
苏丹 Yemen
阿曼 Oman
沙特阿拉伯 Saudi Arabia
伊朗 Iran
Refined products/LPG油品和液化气
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1988 1993 1998 2003
百万吨
Mln
t
液化气 LPG
其它 Other Products
石脑油 Naphtha
汽油 Gasoline
航空煤油 Jet
柴油 Gas oil
燃料油 Fuel oil
Source: Tony Cui (BP China), personal communication, July 2004.
液化气与原油价格比较LPG and Crude Oil Prices
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
油价
, 美元
/ 桶 O
il,
US
D/b
bl
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
丙烷
, 美元
/ 吨
Pro
pan
e, U
SD
/t
原油 Crude oil
沙特丙烷 Saudi CP
预计Proj
Source: Tony Cui (BP China), personal communication, July 2004.
DME (CH3OCH3) is Similar to LPG
• DME used today as ozone-safe aerosol propellant. Current global production is ~150,000 tons/year (from methanol).
• DME is also a good diesel-engine fuel: high cetane #, no sulfur, no C-C bonds so no soot, lower NOx emissions.
• New DME manufacturing capacity under construction/planned: – From nat. gas: 110,000 t/y (Sichuan, China, 2005 on-line); 800,000 t/y (Iran, 2006 on-line)
– From coal: 840,000 t/y project approved (Ningxia, China, construction not yet started)
Source: Larson and Yang, 2004, “Dimethyl Ether (DME) from Coal as a Household Cooking Fuel in China,” Energy for Sustainable Development, VIII(3): 115-126
Making DME from Coal
• Gasify coal in O2/H2O to produce synthesis gas “syngas” (mostly CO, H2).• Increase H/C ratio (from ~0.8 for coal to ~ 3 for DME) via water gas shift
reaction (CO + H2O H2 + CO2).
• Remove acid gases (H2S and CO2) from syngas.
• Convert syngas to DME in a slurry-phase synthesis reactor.
• Separate DME product from unconverted syngas.
• Produce exportable electricity with unconverted syngas.
Liquid-phase reactors have much higher one-pass conversion of CO+H2 to liquids than traditional gas-phase reactors, e.g., liquid-phase Fischer-Tropsch synthesis has ~80% one-pass conversion, compared to <40% for traditional technology.
Energy Balance for DME from Coal
Bituminous coal typical of Yanzhou area, Shandong Province (dry weight %)
C 63.7
H 4.3
O 6.8
S 4.0
N 1.1
Ash 20.2
Moisture (as rec’d) 7.1
HHV (MJ/kg as rec’d) 24.54
LHV (MJ/kg, as rec’d) 23.49
Energy Balance Summary*
Coal feed (MW) 2203
DME (MW) 600
Net electricity (MW) 490
Gasifier
Rectisol
clean syngas
Quench
to stack
OxygenProduction
vent
air quenchedgas
1390°C75 bar
Liquid PhaseSynthesis
Reactor
steam
Grinding, Slurrying
coal
water
H2S
Cooler
Flashunconverted
syngas
Expander
boiler feed water
SyngasPre-heater
MP steam
~Steamturbine
synthesis product
methanol
O2 (95%)
Scrubberquenchwater
scrubberwater
SourWGS
Coolersyngas bypass
CO2
RecycleCompressor
Distillation
Flash
liquid
cond.
Boiler
~
DME
Gas Turbine
~
air
LP Steam
* Source: “VENT” case in Celik, F. Larson, E.D., and Williams, R.H., 2004, “Transportation Fuel from Coal with Low CO2 Emissions,” Proceedings of the 7th
International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, held Sept. 2004 (proceedings forthcoming).
Source: Larson and Yang, 2004, “Dimethyl Ether (DME) from Coal as a Household Cooking Fuel in China,” Energy for Sustainable Development, VIII(3): 115-126
Estimated Retail Cost/Price of DME from Coal in China
LPG, DME Retail Price Comparisons
Source: Larson and Yang, 2004, “Dimethyl Ether (DME) from Coal as a Household Cooking Fuel in China,” Energy for Sustainable Development, VIII(3): 115-126
Windfall profits
potential
Summary/Conclusions• Environmental/health problems associated with cooking/heating
with solid fuels are significant in China.• From a societal perspective, the cooking problem can be solved
cost-effectively and without significant global energy impacts.• Major institutional, financial, political, social, and other barriers
exist, however. (I have not addressed these in this talk!)• LPG is attractive for China, but concerns over energy security
and crude-oil linked price may limit future expansion potential.• DME from coal (with co-production of electricity) is an attractive
additional option.– DME could be made in large quantities in many areas of China, including
in some of the poorest Western provinces.– Low costs compared to prospective future LPG prices.– Total coal use for cooking and electricity could be reduced by about 25%
compared to cooking directly with solid coal and generating the electricity from a stand-alone coal-IGCC power plant.
– CO2 capture and storage during DME production may be long term option.