EnKF analysis reduced the innovations but smaller than GSI

• EnKF analysis reduced the innovations but smaller than GSI

Start from 0900 with adaptive inflation but with max inflation up to 1.2 (green)

Experiments described in the report with adaptive inflation but with max inflation up to 1.2 (red)

As second experiments but with unlimited adaptive inflation (blue)

As third but add perturbation to the forecast fields before running EnKF(pink)

GSI analysis (black)

ps

Pw: GPSIPW GPS-INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER

Three hours forecast Innovations

Potiention temperature

Water vapor mixing ratio

Three hours forecast Innovations

X component wind

Y component wind

Three hours forecast Innovations

GSIEnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

Surface u

24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF

GSI

24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

Top level t

GSIEnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

Surface temperature

24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF

GSIEnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

Top level u

24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF

24 hours Inflation of T, surface

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

24 hours prior spred of T, surface

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

24 hours post spred of T, surface

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

24 hours Inflation of U, surface

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

24 hours prior spread of U, surface

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

24 hours post spread of U, surface

EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2

EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

Know issues

• The increment of EnKF analysis after 24 fours is smaller in the CONUS domain. It is not reasonable since the most of observations are within the CONUS Domain.

• The spread is higher outside the CONUS domain and smaller within the CONUS domain which indicates the convergence of EnKF is too faster in the observation area.

Next move• Double check the localization. And the U and V

coordinate.• Excluded the observation type ‘pw’, because the

innovation of ‘pw’ is larger than GSI even at the first 24 hours analysis

• Add properly perturbation to the three hours forecast fields before EnKF analysis. I have tested to use the random cv methods but crashed after 3 days cycle, I’m thinking a way add perturbation in the observation area, since the spread is smaller in the CONUS domain.

inflation' 2 ' 2

' 2 ' 2

analpertwt *( analpertwt , analpertwt 1r1=

analpertwt *( , analpertwt 1

logsigma ln( / )

r = abs(logsigma/lnsigcovinfcutoff)

R=r1+taper(r)

) / (

*covinflate

anal

) 1

) / ( )

pertwt 0.8;

b a

b a

pres prssfc

x x

x x

covinflate 0.1; lnsigcovinfcutoff 6

taper(r)

logsigma ln( / ) -2.995732274

(logsigma / lnsigcovinfcutoff ) 0.4992

5

88712

0

10

3

00

prestop prssfc

r ab

prestop

prssfc

s