Application of a Coupled EnKF and 4DVar Data Assimilation ...hfip.psu.edu › fuz4 › EnKF2014 › Day3 › REYES_EnKF_Workshop.pdfApplication of a Coupled EnKF and 4DVar Data Assimilation

Application of a Coupled EnKF and 4DVar Data Assimilation Method in the Study of

Tropical Cyclone GenesisAshford Reyes1, Gregory Jenkins1, Jonathan PoterJoy2 and Fuqing Zhang2

1 Howard University Program for Atmospheric Sciences, Washington DC.

2 Department of Meteorology Pennsylvania State University, University.

!

The 6th EnKF Workshop May 21st 2014

Introduction

This study makes use of a coupled EnKF-4DVar data assimilation method (known as E4DVar) to assimilate conventional and field campaign observations taken during NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) and NSF Pre-depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) conducted in summer of 2010.

The objective of both GRIP and PREDICT was to collect observations of tropical cyclones in order to test certain hypothesis for genesis and rapid intensification.

For this study we will examine and compare the genesis of hurricane Karl and tropical storm Mathew of the 2010 hurricane season.

Case Studies

100oW 90oW 80oW 70oW 60oW

10oN

20oN

12 UTC 9 Sept.18 UTC 14 Sept.

00 UTC 18 Sept.

Track− tropical wave− tropical depression− tropical storm− hurricane

Hurricane Karl (2010)

100oW 90oW 80oW 70oW 60oW

10oN

20oN


18 UTC 26 Sept.

Track− tropical wave− tropical depression− tropical storm− hurricane

Tropical Storm Mathew (2010)

• Karl was a category 3 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 956 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 110 knots. Formed at 18.1 N, 83.6 W on September 14th at 18Z.

• Mathew had a minimum central pressure of 998 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 50 knots. Formed at 13.9 N, 76.2 W on September 23rd at 18Z.

Observations

• Conventional observations were obtained from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS).

• The assimilated data include conventional observations from MADIS and dropsonde measurements collected during PREDICT and GRIP field campaigns.

Field Campaign Observations

Conventional Observations

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00 UTC 18 Sept.

Track− tropical wave− tropical storm− hurricane Observations~ sat winds below 500 mb~ sat winds above 500 mbo soundings+ buoysx METARs

100oW 90oW 80oW 70oW 60oW 50oW

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12 UTC 9 Sept.

18 UTC 14 Sept.

00 UTC 18 Sept.

Track− tropical wave− tropical storm− hurricane PREDICT dropsondeso 10 Sept. flight missions (2)o 11 Sept. flight missiono 12 Sept. flight missiono 13 Sept. flight missiono 14 Sept. flight mission GRIP dropsondeso 12 Sept. flight missiono 13 Sept. flight missiono 14 Sept. flight missiono 16 Sept. flight missiono 17 Sept. flight mission

Coupled EnKF-4DVar Data Assimilation Schematic

Zhang and Zhang (2012), Poterjoy and Zhang (2014)

x1,0f , x2,0

f ,... , xN ,0f

x0f

!x1,0f , !x2,0

f ,... , !xN ,0f

3D/4DVar!- is used as first guess!- are used in the cost function!

x0f

!x1,0f , !x2,0

f ,... , !xN ,0f

EnKF!- is used as first guess!- are used to estimate the covariance!

x0f

!x1,0f , !x2,0

f ,... , !xN ,0f

Ensemble !Forecast!

Separate ensemble into mean and perturbations!

Run 3D/4DVar and EnKF separately!

x0a

!x1,0a , !x2,0

a ,... , !xN ,0a

3D/4DVar analysis becomes posterior

mean for EnKF perturbations!

x1,0a , x2,0

a ,... , xN ,0a

Ensemble !Analysis!

EnKF, 4DVar and E4DVar Comparison

Deterministic Track and Intensity Forecasts

100oW 95oW 90oW 85oW 80oW 75oW 70oW 65oW 10oN

12oN

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EnKF

a)

12 Sept. 14 Sept. 16 Sept. 18 Sept.

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xMax

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eed

(m s−1

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d)

Analysis time06 UTC 12 Sept.12 UTC 12 Sept.18 UTC 12 Sept.00 UTC 13 Sept.06 UTC 13 Sept.12 UTC 13 Sept.


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4DVar

b)


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E4DVar

c)


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f)

• Karl’s forecasts initialized 30–60 h before genesis and run to 00 UTC Sept. 18th.

Poterjoy and Zhang (2014)



12oN

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xxxxxx

EnKF

a)


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eed

(m s−1

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4DVar

b)


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E4DVar

c)


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f)

• Karl’s forecasts initialized within 48 h before genesis and run to 00 UTC Sept. 18th.


EnKF, 4DVar and E4DVar Analyses

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a) 950 mb c (10−5 s−1)

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b) 500 mb c (10−5 s−1)

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95e) Column RH (%)

EnKF4DVarE4DVar

• Analyses are compared between 12 UTC Sept. 10th and 00 UTC Sept. 18th.

• Vorticity and 950-500 mb column relative humidity are averaged within 3 degrees of the storm center.

• 950-500 mb vertical shear and vortex tilt are estimated using winds within 3 degrees of the storm center.

• E4DVar analyses have smaller 950-500 mb vortex displacements and much higher column relative humidity.


E4DVar

Experimental Design

• 60 ensemble members

• Localization of 900 km in the horizontal & 15 levels in the vertical

• Relaxation coefficient of 0.8

• Two way coupling between EnKF and 4DVar ‣ 4DVar uses ensemble mean first guess and ensemble perturbations ‣ EnKF update the ensemble members ‣ Hybrid 4DVar analysis replaces the EnKF analysis

• 80% of the increment comes from the ensemble perturbations during the hybrid minimization.

• Assimilation performed on 13.5-km grid spacing with 35 vertical levels and a 4.5-km two-way nested forecast.

• Experiments were initialized from GFS/GDAS analysis and cycled every 6 hours.


100oW 95oW 90oW 85oW 80oW 75oW 70oW 65oW 60oW

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Karl

• Forecasts initialized within 48-18 h before genesis.


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Mathew

Deterministic Forecasts

• Forecasts initialized 18 h prior to genesis.

• Dashed: 950 mb storm-relative streamlines.

• Shaded: 950 mb relative vorticity (4 x 10−4s−1).

• Checkered: 950-500 mb column RH (> 90%)

Karl

Mathew

... ....................................... ........... ........... ............ .............. .................... .. ......................... ... .............................. .... . ....................................... .......................... ........... ........................ . ........ ............................... .... ..................... ... ........ ..... ..... ...... ... ..... ...... ................ ...... ....... . . ........... . . .. ............ ......... .. . ............ .. ..... . .. ............ .. .... .... ... ..... ... .......... .... .. ..... . ................. ........ .................. ........ . ................ ....... . ..... ........ ..... ... . . .. .. ........... .. . ... ...... ........... .. .......... ...... .. ... ................... ... ... .............................................. ......................................... ........... ........ .. .................... .... . . .. ..... .......... ... ..... ... ...00 UTC 23

Latit

ude

Longitude

a)

Vmax = 12.4 m s−1

−72.5 −72 −71.5 −71 −70.5

12.5

13

13.5

14

. .... . .. ... .. .... . .. .. .... .. ..... ... . . . ......... .... . ........... ...... ... .. ............ .. ....... ........... .... ....... ................ ......... . .................. ........ .... ................... ......... .. ..................... ............ ................................. .............. ...................................................... .... .................................... .... ... .... . ........................... . . ....... ............................ ........... ................. ...... .......... .... ...................... ...... .... ...... ....................... . ..................... ......... .... ............ .................... ..... ............ ........... .... ..... ............. ..... ..... ...... ............. . ................ ............ .. ... ... ..... . ... . .. ................. ........... . .. .. ... ................. . ... .. . ............ .... ... ..... .. . .. .... . ......... ....... . .. .. .. ... .................... . .. . . .. . .............. ... . .. .......... .... . .. ............ ....... . ...... . .... ...... .... ........ ... ...... ..... .......... ...... ...... ................ ........... . .... ....... ........ . .... . . .............. . ............ ... ..... ........... .. ...... . ...... .. ... ... ....... .... ...... ...... .... .... .. ... ..... ......... .. .... .... .. .. ... ...... ..... .... . . . ............. ..... . ...... . .. .. ..... ... ...... ... .... ..... . .... .. ... ... ...06 UTC 23

Longitude

b)

Vmax = 12.8 m s−1

−73.5 −73 −72.5 −72

12.5

13

13.5

14

..... .............. ... ..... ....... ................. . ........ ..... ........................ ....... ................................ ....... .... ... .................. ........... ... . ................ .............. ...................... ..................................... ...................... .............. ......... .................................... ...... ...... ................................ ... ............. ................... .. ...... . ......... .. ....................... ...... ........ .. ...................... ... . .... .... .......................... . ......... ....................... ..... ........................................ .......... .................. ............... . . .................... ............... . . . . ................................. .. ............................... ... ........... ........ ............ ............ . ................... ... ............................. .... ... .. ............................. ... .... .... .............................. ...... ................................. ...... ...... ..................... .......... ....... ...... .............. .. ...... ...................... .. ....... .................... .. ...... ...................... .. ...... ...... ....... .... ... ... .......... ...... ........ ... ... ............... .. ... .. . ........ .............. ... .. .... .... ....... ....... .... ... ........ .... ....... ..... .. . .......... ... . ...... ....... .... ...... ... ............... ..... ... ...... ................ .... ..... ........................ ..... ... ....... .................. ...... ... ... .... ..................... .... ......... .. ........ ....... ... ... .............. ................ .. . ... .. ............... ..... .... . .. .......... .......... .. .. .. ... ... .. .. ..... .. .. . . .... .... . . ..........12 UTC 23

Longitude

c)

Vmax = 17.3 m s−1

−75 −74.5 −74 −73.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

. . ... .. .......... ....... ... ..... .............. . ................... .. ........ ..... . . ... .......... .. . .................... .. .. .......................... .. ........................... ............................ .. ............................................... ...... ............ .................. ......... ............ ................... ............. ............ .................... .............. .................................. ............................................... ............................................... .................................................................................................................. .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................ ............................... .......... ...................... ......... ........ .......... .. ....... .... ....... ......... ....... ... ....... ..... ...... ... ......... . .. ... ........ ..... ................ .. .............. .. .............. . . .......... ... ........ ... . .......... . ......... ....... .... .. .... ..... . .... .. .. . ....... ... ... .. .......... .... .......... ........ ... ..18 UTC 23

Longitude

d)

Vmax = 17.2 m s−1

−76.5 −76 −75.5 −75

13

13.5

14

14.5

............................................. ............ ............. ......... . . .................... .................... .................. ..................... ............................... ............................................................ ............................................................................................................................. ... ............................. .............................. ... .............................. ... ..................................................................... .................................... ........................................................................... ....................................................................................................................................... ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .................00 UTC 14

Latit

ude

Longitude

a)

Vmax = 9.0 m s−1

−79.5 −79 −78.5 −78

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

... ...... ..... .............. . ............. .... .. .......... .. .... .............. .... ............. .. ........ ..... .. ............ .. ............ .. .................. ............ ........... .... ............. ...... ....... ................. ...... ........ ................. ..... ........ ................ ....... ................ ................ .............. ................... ............ .................... . ............. ................. ...... ................... ......... ...... .................. ................. ................... .. ............... ........................... ........... .......................... ......... . ..................... ............ ... .................... .................................................... ................ . . ... .......... ...................... ... ...... ........... ........................... .......... ....... ...................... ........... ........ ..... ...... ....... ................ ... ..... .......................... ..... ... ............. ....................... ......... ...................... ... .... ............ ....... ..... .. ........... ....... ..... ... ..... .... ..... .... .. . ....... ..... .. ............ ... .... .... ........... . ...... ......... ... ... .. ......... ... .. ......... ...... ........... ....... .. . ............. ....... . .. .......... .. ...... ......... ... .. . ......06 UTC 14

Longitude

b)

Vmax = 14.0 m s−1

−81 −80.5 −80 −79.5

16.5

17

17.5

18

......... ..... ..... ..... ... ..... ... ........ ......... .. ..... .......... .......... . ........ ......... ......... ... .............................. ........................... ....... .............. .............. ................................... ........................................ ................................. ................................. ..... .......................... ..... .......... .................... ... ....... ....................... ..... ....... .............. ..... . ............... ....... .... . ............... .. .......... .... ......... ....... ... ............ ... ......... ...... .. ................. ...... . . ... ...... ........ ...... . ...... ....... ...... ........ .... ....... .............. ......... . ......... ............ .. .................... ................ .......... ...... .................... .................................................... ................................................ ............... .................. .................... .................... .... .. ..... .... .. . .... . . ....... . ... .. .... . .. ... ........ .. . .... ....... .. . ..... .12 UTC 14

Longitude

c)

Vmax = 19.0 m s−1

−82.5 −82 −81.5 −81

17

17.5

18

18.5

....... ... .....

............. .... ......................... ............................................................................................................................................. .................. ....... .................. ............................. .... .................. .... ................ .. . .......... ..... ..... ............. . .... ....... ... ............ ... ........ ... .............. ........ ..................... . ..................... ... ..................... .. ... .... .................... ... .... ..................... .... ..... ............... . ... .. ......... .... .. .......... ........ ............. ....... ............ ....... .... .... ........... ........ .... ............ ........ . ........... ..... ... ..... .............. .... ....18 UTC 14

Longitude

d)

Vmax = 19.5 m s−1

−84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

............................................................................... .............................................................................................................. .................. .................. ................... ................... ............................ .................... ............... .......... ............ ................ ........................ ........................ ....................... .................. .................. ................... ........................ ........................ ......18 UTC 14

Latit

ude

Longitude

a)

Vmax = 21.2 m s−1

−84.5 −84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

............. . ...... .. .................. ....... ................. .... ... .. ....................... ..... ... ......................... ... .. ......................... . ......................... ......................... .................. . ................. .. .... ................. . .... ............. ...... .............. .... ....... ............... . ................ .. ........... ..... ................................. ..... .................................................................. ............ ............ .......... ............ ........ ........................ . .......... ........................ ............ . .. ........... . ......................................... ................... .............. ........................ ................................. .... .. ............................................................. ............................... ........................ ..... .......................... .............. ................ ... ............................. .................................. ..................... ............ ...................... ............ . ....................... .... . .................. ..... ... .. ............... .. .... ........ ................ .... ....... ... ...... .. . ............ ........... .... ........... ... .........00 UTC 15

Longitude

b)

Vmax = 19.5 m s−1

−85.5 −85 −84.5 −8417

17.5

18

18.5

19

.. ..................... ..

.... ........ ................. ................ ................................................................................................................................................. ........................ .......................... ........................... ............................. ........................................ ...... ..................... ...................................... .................... ................... .. ............. ... ... .......... ... ... .......... .... .. ............ .... .................. ................ ............ ... ............ ............. .................... ... ........... ........................ ....... 06 UTC 15

Longitude

c)

Vmax = 22.7 m s−1

−87 −86.5 −86 −85.5 −85

17.5

18

18.5

19

......... ................. .................. .................... ....................... .......................... ............................. ........................... ..... ..... ............. . .................. ....................................................................... .. ................. .. ...................... ........... . ....... ...... ...... . ......... ....... ...... . ....................... ...... . ....................... ...... ...................... ....................... ..................... .......................................................................................................................................... ................. ................... .... .................. .... .................. .... ..................... .......................... .......................... ............. ............ ........... ............... ...... ................ ............. ..... 12 UTC 15

Longitude

d)

Vmax = 26.5 m s−1

−88 −87.5 −87 −86.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

................ . .................... ... ................... ...... ............ .... ....... ............... ....... ..... ............. ....... ....................... ................................ ... .. .................. ..................... ....................... ................. ......................................... ... .................................... . ........................ .............. ....................... ............. ............ ..... ............. ........... .... ............. ............. ... ... ............. .............. ... ............... ..... ................ ....... ............. ................. ............... ... ............. ........ ....... ... .. ..... ... ................ .... .. ..... ... .... ............. .......... .... . ........ ........ ... ... ......... ............. .. ....... ..... .. ... ....... ..... .. ...... ........ ..... .......... .. . ... .... .. ...... ....... ... ...... .............. ............... ........ .................... .. .... ... . .... .... .

4DVa

rLa

titud

e

e)

Vmax = 18.0 m s−1

−84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

.... . ..... ............................. ........ ................. ........ .................... ............................ .......................... ........................... ..... ........................ ......... ......................... ............................... ................................ .... ........................... ..... ........................... ... ............................ ... .................... .... ..... .................. ... .... .................. .... .......... ... ................... ......... .... ................... ... ... ......... .... ...... ... ....... ............ .......... ........ .......... ....... .......... ........ ......... ............ ...... .......... ............... ....... ......... ...... ...... .................. ........... ... .......... . ......... . ........... ......... ........................... .............. ....... ........ ... ..... .. f)

Vmax = 18.5 m s−1

−85.5 −85 −84.5 −84

17.5

18

18.5

19

........... ... ... .. ... .......... ...... .... ........... ...... ............. .. ...... .......... ...................... ........................ . ......... .... ... ............ ......... ......................... .......................... .... ......... .................... .............................. ................. .............. .................................... .......................................................................................................... ............. ............ ........ ......... .. ................... . ........ .................... . ........ ........ ........... .. ....... ......... . ............... ............... .............. ... ............. ... ... ... .................... ... .................... ... .... . .......... . .. . ............ .. .......... ...... ... ...... ........... .......... ... ......... ... ....... ..... ..... ... ........ ........ ................. ... ..... .... ....... ..... .. g)

Vmax = 19.4 m s−1

−87 −86.5 −86 −85.5 −85

17.5

18

18.5

19

.... .............. ... ........................ .. ........................... ..... . ................................. ........................ ............ .................. ....... ........................ .. ..... ...................... ........ ...................... ...... ....... ................. ... ...... ................ ......... .................. ......................... ........................ .. . ................... ................. ................... ................... ................. ...................... ................................... ................................. .............................. ............. .... ............. ....................... .............. ...................................... ...................................... ........................................ ......................................... ....................... ................ .......................................... .................. . .................... ................... ....................... .................................... ...... ....................... ............ ........................... ............. ........................... .............. .......................... ........... .... .............. .. ....... ........... .... ............ .. ........ .......... ..... ......... ... ...... ..... .... .... ............ .... ..... .... ..... .................. .......... .............. ... ...... ................... ... .... ................ ... .. . ..... ...... .... . ... ............ .. .... . ....... ....... ......... ........ h)

Vmax = 26.0 m s−1

−88 −87.5 −87 −86.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

E4D

Var

Latit

ude

........................................................... ..................... ........................ ......................... ......................... ........................ ........ ..... ... ....... .. ... ...... ..... ... . ............ ... . ............ .... .. .......... ....... ...... .. ............ .............. .. ................ ............... ............................... ................................ . ................... ............ . ... ...... .................. . .. ..................... .... ........ ...................... ........... ....................... ........... ...... .................. ......... ........................... ................................... ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... ................ . ...... .................. ... .................... .............. .. ......... ..... .... .......... ..... . .... ......... ... . ..... .................................. ... ............... ... i)

Vmax = 16.2 m s−1

−84.5 −84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

........................................................ . ............ ................... .................................................... ................ .......... ...................... ................ ......... .............. .... .......... ...................... .............................. ... ......................... ........................... .. ................... .......... . ................ ........... ................................................ ......................... .................. ....... .. ............ .... ................... ........ ............ ... .... ... .. .... ..... .... .... ..... ... ............ ......... .... ................ ... ............ ........... ............... ............. ... ....... .. ...... .. ..... ... ...... ...... ...... ... ...... ... ....... ... ... ... j)

Vmax = 18.2 m s−1

−85.5 −85 −84.5 −84

17.5

18

18.5

19

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

. ..... ...... ....... ....... ........ .. ... . ...... .. .. ........ ......... .. .. . ............... .. .... .... . ..... ... . ...... ... ... ..... . .. ........ ...... .. .. ... .... ........ ...... ..... . .............. . .... ... ... . .... ... .. .. ............. . ... .................. . .. .................... ... .. ....................... ... ... . . ............................ ... . . ........................... ... . .................... .. ...... ................ . ... ............... . ..................... . .. .................... .. .................... ... .. ..................... .. .. .................... . ....................... ...................... ........ ................... ........ ...... ............. ....... ....................... ....... ......................... ..... ... .............................. .. .............................. ... ....... ......................... ....... ......................... ...... ..... ............... ..... .. ............. .................. k)

Vmax = 20.7 m s−1

−87 −86.5 −86 −85.5 −85

17.5

18

18.5

19

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

...................................................................................................................................................................... ............................. ............... .............................. ..... ............................... ..... .. ................................. ... ... .................................. ... .......... ........................... .... ........ ............................. ..... ....... .................................... ........ ..................................... ....... ................................. .... ....... ................................. ........... ......................... ... ........... . ...................... ... ........... ...................... .. ....... ........................ . ................................ .............................. ..... ........................ .... ........................ ................................. ..... ........ ................. ...................... .................. .................. ........ ........ .............. ......... .......... ............ ................... ............ ............. ............. .............. ........... ............. ........... ............ ............... ........... .................... ................ .................................... .... ................ ................ .... ............... ................. ..... ............................. .... ... .................... ... .. .................. ... .. ......

l)

Vmax = 24.4 m s−1

−88.5 −88 −87.5 −87 −86.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

............................................................................... .............................................................................................................. .................. .................. ................... ................... ............................ .................... ............... .......... ............ ................ ........................ ........................ ....................... .................. .................. ................... ........................ ........................ ......18 UTC 14

Latit

ude

Longitude

a)

Vmax = 21.2 m s−1

−84.5 −84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

............. . ...... .. .................. ....... ................. .... ... .. ....................... ..... ... ......................... ... .. ......................... . ......................... ......................... .................. . ................. .. .... ................. . .... ............. ...... .............. .... ....... ............... . ................ .. ........... ..... ................................. ..... .................................................................. ............ ............ .......... ............ ........ ........................ . .......... ........................ ............ . .. ........... . ......................................... ................... .............. ........................ ................................. .... .. ............................................................. ............................... ........................ ..... .......................... .............. ................ ... ............................. .................................. ..................... ............ ...................... ............ . ....................... .... . .................. ..... ... .. ............... .. .... ........ ................ .... ....... ... ...... .. . ............ ........... .... ........... ... .........00 UTC 15

Longitude

b)

Vmax = 19.5 m s−1

−85.5 −85 −84.5 −8417

17.5

18

18.5

19

.. ..................... ..

.... ........ ................. ................ ................................................................................................................................................. ........................ .......................... ........................... ............................. ........................................ ...... ..................... ...................................... .................... ................... .. ............. ... ... .......... ... ... .......... .... .. ............ .... .................. ................ ............ ... ............ ............. .................... ... ........... ........................ ....... 06 UTC 15

Longitude

c)

Vmax = 22.7 m s−1

−87 −86.5 −86 −85.5 −85

17.5

18

18.5

19

......... ................. .................. .................... ....................... .......................... ............................. ........................... ..... ..... ............. . .................. ....................................................................... .. ................. .. ...................... ........... . ....... ...... ...... . ......... ....... ...... . ....................... ...... . ....................... ...... ...................... ....................... ..................... .......................................................................................................................................... ................. ................... .... .................. .... .................. .... ..................... .......................... .......................... ............. ............ ........... ............... ...... ................ ............. ..... 12 UTC 15

Longitude

d)

Vmax = 26.5 m s−1

−88 −87.5 −87 −86.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

................ . .................... ... ................... ...... ............ .... ....... ............... ....... ..... ............. ....... ....................... ................................ ... .. .................. ..................... ....................... ................. ......................................... ... .................................... . ........................ .............. ....................... ............. ............ ..... ............. ........... .... ............. ............. ... ... ............. .............. ... ............... ..... ................ ....... ............. ................. ............... ... ............. ........ ....... ... .. ..... ... ................ .... .. ..... ... .... ............. .......... .... . ........ ........ ... ... ......... ............. .. ....... ..... .. ... ....... ..... .. ...... ........ ..... .......... .. . ... .... .. ...... ....... ... ...... .............. ............... ........ .................... .. .... ... . .... .... .

4DVa

rLa

titud

e

e)

Vmax = 18.0 m s−1

−84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

.... . ..... ............................. ........ ................. ........ .................... ............................ .......................... ........................... ..... ........................ ......... ......................... ............................... ................................ .... ........................... ..... ........................... ... ............................ ... .................... .... ..... .................. ... .... .................. .... .......... ... ................... ......... .... ................... ... ... ......... .... ...... ... ....... ............ .......... ........ .......... ....... .......... ........ ......... ............ ...... .......... ............... ....... ......... ...... ...... .................. ........... ... .......... . ......... . ........... ......... ........................... .............. ....... ........ ... ..... .. f)

Vmax = 18.5 m s−1

−85.5 −85 −84.5 −84

17.5

18

18.5

19

........... ... ... .. ... .......... ...... .... ........... ...... ............. .. ...... .......... ...................... ........................ . ......... .... ... ............ ......... ......................... .......................... .... ......... .................... .............................. ................. .............. .................................... .......................................................................................................... ............. ............ ........ ......... .. ................... . ........ .................... . ........ ........ ........... .. ....... ......... . ............... ............... .............. ... ............. ... ... ... .................... ... .................... ... .... . .......... . .. . ............ .. .......... ...... ... ...... ........... .......... ... ......... ... ....... ..... ..... ... ........ ........ ................. ... ..... .... ....... ..... .. g)

Vmax = 19.4 m s−1

−87 −86.5 −86 −85.5 −85

17.5

18

18.5

19

.... .............. ... ........................ .. ........................... ..... . ................................. ........................ ............ .................. ....... ........................ .. ..... ...................... ........ ...................... ...... ....... ................. ... ...... ................ ......... .................. ......................... ........................ .. . ................... ................. ................... ................... ................. ...................... ................................... ................................. .............................. ............. .... ............. ....................... .............. ...................................... ...................................... ........................................ ......................................... ....................... ................ .......................................... .................. . .................... ................... ....................... .................................... ...... ....................... ............ ........................... ............. ........................... .............. .......................... ........... .... .............. .. ....... ........... .... ............ .. ........ .......... ..... ......... ... ...... ..... .... .... ............ .... ..... .... ..... .................. .......... .............. ... ...... ................... ... .... ................ ... .. . ..... ...... .... . ... ............ .. .... . ....... ....... ......... ........ h)

Vmax = 26.0 m s−1

−88 −87.5 −87 −86.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

E4D

Var

Latit

ude

........................................................... ..................... ........................ ......................... ......................... ........................ ........ ..... ... ....... .. ... ...... ..... ... . ............ ... . ............ .... .. .......... ....... ...... .. ............ .............. .. ................ ............... ............................... ................................ . ................... ............ . ... ...... .................. . .. ..................... .... ........ ...................... ........... ....................... ........... ...... .................. ......... ........................... ................................... ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... ................ . ...... .................. ... .................... .............. .. ......... ..... .... .......... ..... . .... ......... ... . ..... .................................. ... ............... ... i)

Vmax = 16.2 m s−1

−84.5 −84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

........................................................ . ............ ................... .................................................... ................ .......... ...................... ................ ......... .............. .... .......... ...................... .............................. ... ......................... ........................... .. ................... .......... . ................ ........... ................................................ ......................... .................. ....... .. ............ .... ................... ........ ............ ... .... ... .. .... ..... .... .... ..... ... ............ ......... .... ................ ... ............ ........... ............... ............. ... ....... .. ...... .. ..... ... ...... ...... ...... ... ...... ... ....... ... ... ... j)

Vmax = 18.2 m s−1

−85.5 −85 −84.5 −84

17.5

18

18.5

19

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

. ..... ...... ....... ....... ........ .. ... . ...... .. .. ........ ......... .. .. . ............... .. .... .... . ..... ... . ...... ... ... ..... . .. ........ ...... .. .. ... .... ........ ...... ..... . .............. . .... ... ... . .... ... .. .. ............. . ... .................. . .. .................... ... .. ....................... ... ... . . ............................ ... . . ........................... ... . .................... .. ...... ................ . ... ............... . ..................... . .. .................... .. .................... ... .. ..................... .. .. .................... . ....................... ...................... ........ ................... ........ ...... ............. ....... ....................... ....... ......................... ..... ... .............................. .. .............................. ... ....... ......................... ....... ......................... ...... ..... ............... ..... .. ............. .................. k)

Vmax = 20.7 m s−1

−87 −86.5 −86 −85.5 −85

17.5

18

18.5

19

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

...................................................................................................................................................................... ............................. ............... .............................. ..... ............................... ..... .. ................................. ... ... .................................. ... .......... ........................... .... ........ ............................. ..... ....... .................................... ........ ..................................... ....... ................................. .... ....... ................................. ........... ......................... ... ........... . ...................... ... ........... ...................... .. ....... ........................ . ................................ .............................. ..... ........................ .... ........................ ................................. ..... ........ ................. ...................... .................. .................. ........ ........ .............. ......... .......... ............ ................... ............ ............. ............. .............. ........... ............. ........... ............ ............... ........... .................... ................ .................................... .... ................ ................ .... ............... ................. ..... ............................. .... ... .................... ... .. .................. ... .. ......

l)

Vmax = 24.4 m s−1

−88.5 −88 −87.5 −87 −86.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

1 9 17 25 33 41 49

850 mb Divergence/Convergence Field



• Shaded: 850 mb divergence (10−4s−1).

• Grid centered over low-level vorticity maximum.

Karl

Mathew

Longitude

Latit

ude

00 UTC 14

a)

−79.5 −79 −78.5 −7816

16.5

17

17.5

18

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

06 UTC 14

b)

−81 −80.5 −80 −79.5

16.5

17

17.5

18

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

12 UTC 14

c)

−83 −82.5 −82 −81.5 −81

17

17.5

18

18.5

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

18 UTC 14

d)

−84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

Latit

ude

00 UTC 23

a)

−72 −71.5 −71 −70.5

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

06 UTC 23

b)

−73.5 −73 −72.5 −72

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

12 UTC 23

c)

−75 −74.5 −74 −73.5

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

18 UTC 23

d)

−76.5 −76 −75.5 −75

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

200 mb Divergence/Convergence Field



• Shaded: 200 mb divergence (10−4s−1).

• Grid centered over low-level vorticity maximum.

Karl

Mathew

06 UTC 14

E4D

var−

MAD

ISLa

titud

e

a)

−82 −81 −80 −79 −7814

15

16

17

1818 UTC 14

b)

−84 −83 −82 −81

15

16

17

18

06 UTC 15

c)

−87 −86 −85 −8416

17

18

19

2018 UTC 15

d)

−89 −88 −87 −86

18

19

20

21

Longitude

E4D

var−

GR

IPLa

titud

e

e)

−82 −81 −80 −79

15

16

17

18

9 17 25 33 41

Longitude

f)

−84 −83 −82 −81

15

16

17

18

9 17 25 33 41

Longitude

g)

−87 −86 −85 −84

16

17

18

19

9 17 25 33 41

Longitude

h)

−89 −88 −87 −86

17

18

19

20

9 17 25 33 41

Longitude

Latit

ude

00 UTC 14

a)

−79.5 −79 −78.5 −7816

16.5

17

17.5

18

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

06 UTC 14

b)

−81 −80.5 −80 −79.5

16.5

17

17.5

18

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

12 UTC 14

c)

−83 −82.5 −82 −81.5 −81

17

17.5

18

18.5

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

18 UTC 14

d)

−84 −83.5 −83 −82.5

17.5

18

18.5

19

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

Latit

ude

00 UTC 23

a)

−72 −71.5 −71 −70.5

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

06 UTC 23

b)

−73.5 −73 −72.5 −72

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

12 UTC 23

c)

−75 −74.5 −74 −73.5

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Longitude

18 UTC 23

d)

−76.5 −76 −75.5 −75

12.5

13

13.5

14

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

E4DVar Analyses

• Karl’s analyses from 12 UTC Sept. 11th to 00 UTC Sept. 15th.

• Mathew’s analyses from 12 UTC Sept. 20th to 00UTC Sept. 24th.

• Vorticity, Tilt, Shear and Column RH calculated within 3 degrees of the storm center.

• Both Karl and Mathew showed relatively the same trend prior too and during genesis.

0

2

4

6a) 950 mb c (10−5 s−1)

0

2

4

6b) 500 mb c (10−5 s−1)

0

200

400

600c) Tilt (km)

0

5

10

15d) Shear (m s−1)

−72 −48 −24 060

70

80

90

100e) Column RH (%)

KARLMATHEW

Vorticity (ζ) Profile

Karl

Mathew

• Karl analysis from 12 UTC Sept. 11th to 00 UTC Sept. 15th.

• Mathew analysis from 12 UTC Sept. 20th to 00UTC Sept. 24th.

• Mean Vorticity (10−5s−1) calculated within 3 degrees of the storm center.

• Mathew has a stronger mean mid-level vorticity prior to genesis in comparison to Karl.

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

a) E4Dvar−MADIS200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

b) E4Dvar−GRIP

14 Sept.

200

300

400

500

600700800900

−6 −5.5 −5 −4.5 −4 −3.5 −3 −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6

Perturbation of Potential Temperature (𝜽՛) Profile

Karl

Mathew



• Warming in the mid to upper levels prior to genesis.

• Cooling at the surface together with warming in the upper levels at time of genesis.

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

a) 4DVar−hyb−MADIS200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

b) 4DVar−hyb−GRIP

13 Sept.

200

300

400

500

600700800900

−1.75 −1.5 −1.25 −1 −0.75 −0.5 −0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Relative Humidity Profile (3 Degree Avg)

Karl

Mathew



• Mean Relative Humidity (%) calculated within 3 degrees of the storm center.

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

b) E4Dvar−GRIP

14 Sept.

200

300

400

500

600700800900

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Relative Humidity Profile (1 Degree Avg)

Karl

Mathew



• Mean Relative Humidity (%) calculated within 1 degrees of the storm center.

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


200

300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)


300

400

500

600700800900

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

b) E4Dvar−GRIP

14 Sept.

200

300

400

500

600700800900

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Summary and Future Work

• E4DVar has shown significant skill in the genesis of both hurricane Karl and tropical storm Mathew. ‣ E4DVar is able to accurately predict the genesis of Mathew 42 h in

advance, which is a significant improvement over the NHC operational forecasts.

★ Add GRIP dropsondes and sounding observations to Karl PREDICT case with a 1.5-km two way nested domain.

★ Perform an independent quantitative verification using ECMWF analysis for both Karl and Mathew.

★ Conduct ensemble sensitivity runs for both Karl and Mathew.

★ Analyze the 1.5-km simulations to investigate the dynamics associated with the genesis of Karl and Mathew.

THANK YOU

Application of a Coupled EnKF and 4DVar Data Assimilation ...hfip.psu.edu › fuz4 › EnKF2014 › Day3 › REYES_EnKF_Workshop.pdfApplication of a Coupled EnKF and 4DVar Data Assimilation

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