Enjeux 2014

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1Havas Public Affairs Brussels

Tel.: +32 2 234 69 80 – 1 Bvd Charlemagne – 1040 [email protected]

“This year, it is different!”

With a few days to go before the EU institutional changeover, speculation as to potential candidates for the Presidency of the European Commission is already mounting. The first issue of ENJEUX 2014 provides an overview of European personalities, key issues and a timetable of the coming main events.

The outgoing mandate has been marked by an unprecedented range of crises, financial, economic, social and political, the most fundamental being the crisis that has caused the destabilisation of the euro zone, the collapse of the Greek economy and the numerous rescue operations especially in Spain, Italy and Portugal. The Union’s record balancing reactivity as regards the rescue of the Euro and the strengthening of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), and reforms, especially regarding financial services, could be an argument to promote the need for the Union to the electorate. However, it is necessary to have the will and the political weight to do so.

Could it be possible that the European political parties succeed in promoting a unified message to their national parties, that they define a clear programme and they succeed in having on of “their” candidates appointed as President of the Commission? This is the declared ambition of all institutions at this stage in the process. But national interests could overshadow the ambition. This first edition will be focused on the key developments, political and institutional, and will form the first of a series of briefings which we hope will prove to be an insightful guide to the landscape as it develops in the decisive year ahead.

The Havas Public Affairs Brussels team

Enjeux 2014European Elections

The EU institutional changeover: campaign N°1 – 23 May 2014

N°1

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These elections are the first following the Eurozone crisis. They could provide an opportunity for the EU to re-orientate itself towards its future. The crisis in confidence in EU Member States must still be addressed, especially but not exclusively in the United Kingdom, with a referendum in membership of the EU proposed by the present government.

Among  the specific policy areas, climate policy is an issue in which the EU is expected to lead in the international fora. Questions about social policy will be a point of concern for numerous Member States and there remains a risk of creating anti-EU sentiments along the way.

Furthermore, resentment and loss of confidence in the EU project by many Europeans is likely to result in massive abstention and votes at the extremes of the political spectrum (although this is not a completely novel scenario). Both would demonstrate a rejection of the EU by its citizens, at a time when improving European integration and solidarity between states is more than ever the key to the survival of the EU.

« Europe will be built by crisis… It will be the sum of solutions brought to these crises »Jean Monnet, in Mémoires

European electionsA difficult electoral climate for EU

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1979 first European elections

388 million voters

751 MEPs to be elected

28 countries to vote

5% minimum threshold required for a political group to be elected

25 deputies from 7 EU member states are needed to set up a new parliamentary group

In a few figures

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Main challenges

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The abstention

Socialists campaign to increase turnout

European Socialists specifically targeted 5% of the electorate whodid not vote in the 2009 European elections in a bid to increase their score. With the help of 20,000 volunteers across the Union they contacted at least 12 million voters who decided not to go to the polls five years ago to persuade them to do so this time.

The main feature of the 2014 European elections might not be the victory of a particular group, but rather the rate of abstention. Turnout in European elections has fallen consistently over the past four decades from just over 60% in 1979 to 43% in 2009.

Can the trend be reversed ?

There are hopes that this time round the trend may be reversed.

This optimism is based on two main factors:- The fact that with the economic

and financial crisis, European decision making has loomed larger in people’s lives, giving rise to stronger pro and anti-EU sentiment. One of the result is that people have become aware of Europe and aware of its importance.

- The politisation of this campaign with the indirect election of the President of the European Commission. This should increase the political challenge and democratic process of these elections.

- The lack of information: after the 2009 contest, the Commission conducted a public opinion survey to try to identify ways to boost turnout. Over 80% of the respondents called for more information on the impact of the EU on their daily lives, on the candidates’ political programmes and on the work and powers of Parliament itself.

- A general trend: the declining turnout in European elections is similar to the decline in turnout in national and local elections in many member states over the same period.

Why is the turnout in European elections so low?

A far right group: then what?

As the Eurosceptics have not yet demonstrated strong interest in the legislative work of the Parliament, the amendments will continue to be produced by a coalition of pro-Europeans. Andrew Duff, a long-time British Liberal Democrat MEP has warned that, with a reduced majority, pro-European groups will have to enforce voting discipline far more than is currently the case. Abstention and dissidence will play into the hands of the anti-Europeans.

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Main challenges

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The creation of a far-right Group in the European Parliament?

25 deputies coming from a quarter of the EU’s 28 member states (7 member states) are needed to set up a new parliamentary group. Membership of a political group improves the opportunity to influence legislative work, for instance by drafting reports or opinions.

Marine Le Pen, the President of the French FN is already casting her net all over Europe looking for allies.

Current forecasts predict that the National Front will win 16 seats in the European Parliament, out of 74 seats reserved for France. This would make it the biggest French party delegation in Strasbourg, and would put Marine Le Pen in a strong position to form a far-right parliamentary group. She recently declared on French television that she wanted to be the vice-president of a new far-right group in the European Parliament.

The question is how homogeneous is this faction. Far-right deputies in the European Parliament (numbering about 50 in the current 766-seat parliament) are currently split between different factions or are unaligned and isolated.Some parties have completely refused any alliance with the National Front, including the British

eurosceptic party UKIP, and the German Alternatif für Deutschland (AfD).At the same time, the FN has chosen to distance itself from other far-right European parties that it deems too extremist, such as Greece’s neo-Nazi Golden Dawn. Other parties are still on the fence, such as the Swedish Democrats.One of the FN’s main problems will be finding

common ground between the seven nationalities required to form a group.This leaves Marine Le Pen with a short list of likely allies, including the Freedom Party of Austria, the Vlaams Belang from Belgium, the Northern League from Italy, Order and justice from Lithuania or even the Slovak National Party.

Possible creation of a far right Group…

Despite deep divisions

According to recent polls, the Eurosceptics could win between 130 and 200 of the 751 seats – if the far left, far right, populists, nationalists and anti-euro parties are combined. Furthermore, a new far-right political Group may emerge.

France’s National Front party tops the EU election surveys as well as the Dutch PVV party.

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Main challenges

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The election of the President of the European Commission

“There must be a simple majority in Parliament, 376 votes. And there must be a large majority in the European Council of heads of states,” Van Rompuy said, underlining the necessity for the next Commission President to win the backing of both institutions.

His comments point to what could quickly escalate into the mother of all institutional clashes between the Council and Parliament. If the Council chooses a candidate that is not on Parliament's shortlist, it would be seen as a declaration of institutional war.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel allegedly told the centre-right candidate Jean-Claude Juncker that she would support his candidacy if he wins the elections.

For the first time in EU history, the top candidates of the different political families will compete with each other.Citizens will thus have a choice between different persons and programmes throughout Europe. The winner has a good chance of leading the next European Commission. Consequently, the European elections have been significantly upgraded in importance.

In practice, though, things will not be quite that simple. In fact, nothing within the EU treaties make that scenario compulsory. The Post-Lisbon Treaty of the European Union provides: “taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members” (Article 17, par. 7). It is not clear that the Council must chose the candidate of the “winning” political group.Member states and MEPs are therefore going to have to

‘This time, it’s different’, proclaims the European Parliament, hoping to encourage voters to go to the polls in the upcoming European elections. This year, not only will voters be able to vote for their favourite MEP but they will also have the opportunity to participate (indirectly) in the designation of the future European Commission president.

agree (in advance) on the final candidate so that a final vote is guaranteed during the first week of July. The fact is that nothing will be really automatic or transparent.

The five Group candidates stressed they would block all progress if the Council nominates someone other than an official Group candidate.

However, Council President Herman Van Rompuy has reiterated his personal reservations about the 'Spitzenkandidaten' concept for the EU elections, stressing that the next EU Commission president “needs a large majority in the Council too”. “We have to respect the Treaty when appointing the next European Commission president” Van Rompuy told the Belgian public broadcaster VRT on 18 May.

Possible scenarios-Trench warfare: drawn- out inter institutional conflict-Orderly retreat of the Council: solution by mid-June- Blitzkrieg: European Parliament victory in 2 days

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European Commission Presidency

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One seat, 6 candidates

‘

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European Commission Presidency

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One seat, 6 candidates Centre-Right candidate - Jean-Claude Juncker

CampaignThe campaign has not been easy for this candidate who has been critised for his record. If his party wins he has promised a Commission “far more politicised” “with action men rather than civil servants” . He has committed to “addressing major issues and showing restraint on small issues”

His propositions:-Austerity measures.-From reform to growth through anticyclical policies.-Building a trustful transatlantic partnership.-Building a social market economy to combine freedom and solidarity.-Ensuring data protection as a human right.-Stopping the EU enlargement .

Jean-Claude JunckerPrime Minister of Luxembourg from 1995 to 2013, Juncker is strongly pro-integration and pro-euro. He was, until the end of 2012, President of the Eurogroup and is a regular fixture at European Council meetings.

Born in 1954, Juncker was elected to the Luxembourg Parliament at the age of 29 and was immediately placed in the ministerial team of Jacques Santer, as labour minister. By 1989 Juncker had added the role of finance minister. In 1995 he added a third position – that of prime minister – when Jacques Santer became President of the European Commission.

Re-elected in 1999 and again in 2004, in 2005 Juncker led Luxembourg’s Presidency of the European Council during the difficult discussions over the EU’s long-term budget and the rejection of the constitutional treaty by Dutch and French voters.

He won the Charlemagne Prize in 2006.

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European Commission Presidency

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One seat, 6 candidatesSocialist candidate - Martin Schulz

CampaignMartin Schulz led a strong 2.0 campaign. The S&D campaign has been mainly based on the door-to-door campaign: on both real and virtual doors through the“#Knockthevote” campaign on Twitter. He has mainly been criticized during this campaign on the fact that he has never fulfilled any executive responsibility.

His propositions:- Social justice.- Creating a European minimum wage proportional to the GDP of each

member state.- Fighting social and fiscal dumping.- Promoting jobs and growth.- Reforming financial markets.- Fighting climate change.- Championing equality and creating a stronger and more democratic Europe.

Martin SchulzMartin Schulz, born in 1955, was elected President of the European Parliament in January 2012. During his presidency he has always fought for greater weight of the European Parliament in inter-institutional negotiations. He had previously been leader of the Socialist Group, a post to which he was first elected in 2004.

Schulz has been an MEP since 1994. He took on the leadership of the German SPD delegation from 2000 and became a vice-president of the Socialist Group.

Hailing from Aachen, he initially harboured visions of a professional football career before becoming a bookseller until his election as an MEP.

However, his nationality, his reputation for combativeness and lack of executive experience may be a barrier, although a grand coalition in Germany has removed a major stumbling block – making it easier for Chancellor Angela Merkel to nominate him.

If unsuccessful, a job as High Representative may be an acceptable alternative, or he may return to lead the Socialists in the European Parliament.

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European Commission Presidency

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One seat, 6 candidatesLiberal candidate - Guy Verhofstadt

CampaignGuy Verhofstadt is a powerful orator with a clear message, which he delivers in five EU languages. Even though there is no chance for the ALDE to win the European elections, he sees himself as the “compromise candidate” if the two leader parties cannot decide who should take the Commission Presidency. In 2004 he was already the leading candidate for the post, but was unceremoniously vetoed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair on account of his federalist viewpoint.

His propositions-A more integrated Europe.-Data protection.-Completing the single market.-A fiscal and social convergence programme for the next 5 years.-Giving the initiative power to the European Parliament.-A more democratic Europe.

Guy VerhofstadtBorn in 1953, Verhofstadt studied law and became President of the Liberal Flemish Students’ Union in Ghent. By the age of 23, he was a city councillor, the first step on the road to more national prominence. He went on to take a number of high-profile posts including Political Secretary to Willy De Clercq, National President of the Party for Freedom and Progress (PVV), the Flemish Liberal party. He became a Member of Parliament, and later deputy prime minister, budget minister and prime minister from 1999 to 2008. He helped to found the Flemish Liberals and Democrats (VLD, later Open-VLD) in 1992.

Verhofstadt became known as “baby Thatcher” in his early years for his neoliberal economic views, but he is now resolutely centrist and Euro-federalist – a position outlined in his book “The United States of Europe”.

In 2009 Verhofstadt was elected to the European Parliament and became leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, from where he has fiercely criticised the timidity of the Commission and the member states in dealing with the financial crisis – something that he sees as requiring much deeper economic and political integration.

CampaignWhile Ska Keller was first running for the post in a tandem with José Bové, the European Green Party finally chose her to represent the party in the several debates with the other candidates. Her age and sex have undoubtedly played a role in that choice. Comments after her speech on inter-candidate debate on 15 May were very complimentary.“Change Europe. Vote Green.” is the slogan for the party.

Their propositions:- Fight against austerity.- Youth unemployment.- Security and surveillance issues, including online data protection.

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European Commission Presidency

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One seat, 6 candidatesThe Greens tandem – Ska Keller and José Bové

Ska Keller José BovéSka Keller, aged 32, is by far the youngest candidate for the Commission presidency.

Born in East Germany, Keller is a graduate of Islamic studies, Turkish and Jewish Studies at the Free University of Berlin.

Since 2009, Ska Keller has been a member of the European Parliament, She sits on the Committee on International Trade and is a keen advocate of “fair trade, rather than free trade”.

Keller is highly unlikely to be Commission President. However, she does bring some much-needed diversity, youth and different ideas to the race.

José Bové finished a close second in the race, behind Ska Keller. He is mainly famous for his activism.

Bové was born in 1953 in South-West France. By 1976 Bové was involved in his first notable activist cause. He won a battle to prevent a new military base ousting sheep farmers. In 1987, he formed the Peasants’ Confederation (Confédération Paysanne) and continued his activism on issues such as genetically modified organisms and nuclear weapons testing. He shot to public prominence in 1999 when he led the dismantling of a McDonald’s franchise in protest at the company’s use of hormones.

Bové campaigned against the EU constitutional treaty in the French referendum in 2005.

Elected to the European Parliament in 2009, Bové is currently the Vice-Chair of the Parliament’s Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development.

While he stands next to no chance of becoming Commission President, his presence undoubtedly brings some additional character to the race.

CampaignWhile the other four candidates are all from the Brussels beltway, Tsipras is from the outside. It was hoped he could inject a dose of reality in what have sometimes felt like very ‘inside the bubble' conversations among these other candidates. Nonetheless, Tsipras was accused of bringing little European value to the discussion during the last debate, focusing on his own national campaign in Greece. Another barrier was that of the language: though the candidates had been asked to speak in English, Tsipras preferred to speak in Greek.

His propositions- A radical reform.-More solidarity and the end of austerity.-Defeating youth unemployment.-Set the ecological transformation of production.-Reform the European immigration framework.

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European Commission Presidency

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One seat, 6 candidatesThe Far-left candidate - Alexis Tsipras

Alexis TsiprasAlexis Tsipras stands little chance of becoming President of the European Commission, but his presence in the race is an important demonstration of the new dynamics in European politics since the last European elections.

Born in 1974 in Athens, Tsipras is a civil engineer by training who joined the Young Communists in the 1980s. By the 1990s, he was helping to re-define the radical Left in the ‘West’ following the collapse of communist systems across Eastern Europe. He remained in the ‘Coalition of Left, of Movements and Ecology’ (Synaspismós) after the Communist Party left and led the party’s youth wing from 1999 to 2003.

By 2006, Tspiras was a city councillor in Athens on the Coalition of the Radical Left – Unitary Social Front (Syriza) ticket – Synaspismós being the largest party in this broader coalition.

He became leader of Synaspismós in 2008 and a Member of Parliament in 2009, when Syriza took 13 seats – a fall of one seat.

A surge in support for the radical Left in the European elections could see Tsipras in a key position. He has already held meetings with the leader of the Socialists & Democrats in the European Parliament, Hannes Swoboda – a hint, perhaps, at attempts to build a left-wing majority in the Parliament after the elections that could support Martin Schulz‘s candidacy for the Commission presidency.

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What the polls say?

Polls

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Last PollWatch survey – 20 May 2014

EP political groups leading

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Sunday, 25 May

Announcement of the result of the elections

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The European Parliament announced that the European election results will be published on its website on Sunday, 25 May 2014. In a live interactive event, the results, collected from all member states, will be presented in an open data format. The first estimation at the European level will be published from about 22:00 CEST. The last polling stations will close at 23:00 CEST on 25 May 2014 and the first preliminary results both at European and national levels will be available from about the same time. The data, offered in open format, includes EU-wide and national election results for both 2009 and 2014, turnout, seats by political group and member state, and the number of male and female MEPs.

Platform Elections night 2014

The European Parliament has created a platform in order to put online exit national polls as well as comments from politicians. The platform can be found here: www.electionsnight2014.eu.

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TimetableWhat’s next?

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Date Event22-25 May Elections for the European Parliament in all 28 EU member states

27 May • Conference of the European Parliament’s committees chairmen/women to discuss the result of the elections

• Informal meeting of the European Council: President of the Council, Mr Herman Van Rompuy will meet heads of States and Governments to discuss President José Manuel Barroso’s succession

June European Parliament political groups will be formed

3-13 June Head of Delegations meetings within each European Parliament political group

4 June Election of the President and Vice-President of the EPP group

17-19 June Election of the President and Vice-Presidents of the S&D and ALDE group

23 June Deadline to form political groups

24-27 June Nomination of the executive board of political groups

26-27 June Member states to formally put forward their candidate for Commission President at the June European Council

1-3 July Plenary session of the newly constituted European Parliament

3-4 July Formal nomination of the President of the European Commission by the European Council

7-10 July Formation of the parliamentary committees

8-10 July Hearing of the Candidate for the Presidency of the European Commission by European Parliament’s political groups

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TimetableWhat’s next?

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Date Event14-17 July Election of the President of the European Commission during the

plenary session

18 July to 15 August

The President of the European Commission will nominate the College of Commissioners on the basis of the choice made by each Member States

September Public Hearing of the Commissioner candidates by Parliamentary committees.

20-23 October European Parliament votes on the College of Commissioners as a block

1st November Entry into force of the new European Commission

November Nomination of the new President of the European Council by the Head of States and Governments

1st December Entry into force of the new President of the European Council

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