Frau n h o fe r ISI In stitut Syste m tech n ik u nd In no vatio n sfo rsch u n g Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects Wolfgang Eichhammer Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research www.isi.fraunhofer.de Karlsruhe, Germany “Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe: Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“ A contribution within the context of the Weimar Triangle Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004
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Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects
“Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe: Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“ A contribution within the context of the Weimar Triangle Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004. Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects. Wolfgang Eichhammer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects
Wolfgang Eichhammer
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
www.isi.fraunhofer.de
Karlsruhe, Germany
“Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe:
Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“
A contribution within the context of the Weimar Triangle
Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Energy Efficiency - The sextuple dividend
Reduction of environmental burden (CO2, local pollution)
Effects on employment/competitiveness
Supply security: protection to oil/gas price shocks
Economy: protection to “oil/pas price intoxication” (Yoyo in energy prices; high energy prices in slowly recovering economy)
Savings on oil stocks (90 days provision)
Energy Efficiency: Trigger for Innovation
“The double dividend”
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Energy Efficiency
Where we are and our policies
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Energy efficiency is improving … until 1998 : almost Energy efficiency is improving … until 1998 : almost 10% since 1990: main improvement in industry with 10% since 1990: main improvement in industry with 17% against, 6% in transport and 5% in households17% against, 6% in transport and 5% in households;; slow-down since 1998slow-down since 1998
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Ind
ex
industry households transport total
Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
ODEX
Odyssee Bottom-up Index for Energy Efficiency
"Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency"
ODEX
Odyssee Bottom-up Index for Energy Efficiency
"Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency"
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Change in Efficiency Standards of New Dwellings: Specific Consumption Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1974 1974 1982 1988 2001
France
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1985 1985 1987 2002
Finland
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1978 1978 1985 1995 2002
Germany
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1990 1990 1995 2003/05
UK
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1976 1976 1980 1990
Sweden
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1985 1995 2005
Denmark
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1974 1974 1982 1988 2001
France
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1985 1985 1987 2002
Finland
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1978 1978 1985 1995 2002
Germany
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1990 1990 1995 2003/05
UK
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1976 1976 1980 1990
Sweden
0
20
40
60
80
100
<1985 1995 2005
Denmark
Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Some of our most performant national policies
Some of our most performant national policies
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Consumption for heating in the EU: per dwelling , stable on average , but decrease per m2 ; regular reduction for new dwellings because of re-enforcement in standards
0,40,50,60,70,80,9
11,11,21,31,4
toe/
dw
elli
ng
0
5
10
15
20
25
koe/
m2
new dwellings average koe/m2
•Recent revisions in 8 countries Italy (94), Germany (95 & 02), Denmark(95)
Netherlands (95, 98 & 00), Ireland (97), Austria France (01), Greece (95 & 01)
•Planned reinforcement in 3 countries Finland (03), UK , France and Denmark (05)
On average , 4 revisions since 1973 in most countries with an energy saving of 60%
for dwellings built now compared to 1973
•But limited impact on average unit
consumption: in 1999, dwellings built since 1990 only represent 8% of total heating consumption
larger dwellings offset half of the reduction in consumption per m2
Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Limits to policy: Impact of hypothetical building regulation
every 6 years on stock (lifestyle !)
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Un
it C
on
sum
pti
on
per
bu
ild
ing
(to
e/d
wel
lin
g).
New stock: -82%
Existing stock: -29%
Existing stock with 0.5%/a increase in heated surfaces (observed): -16%
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Cold Appliances Market by Label Class (EU)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
A++ A+ A B C D E F G
Labelling Class
% o
f M
ark
et
1990-1992 (GEA)
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2002
2003 (Jan-Apr)
Source: Waide (2000), GfK (2003)
Source: MURE database (www.mure2.com)
Policy Impact ! Not autonomousPolicy Impact ! Not autonomous
Success of a consistent and comprehensive policy, of an innovative and proactive
industry, as well as of receptive consumers
Success of a consistent and comprehensive policy, of an innovative and proactive
industry, as well as of receptive consumers
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Energy Efficiency Index: I Energy Efficiency Class ....... I < 30 A++ 30 I < 42 A+ 42 I < 55 A
55 I < 75 B
75 I < 90 C 90 I < 100 D
100 I < 110 E
110 I < 125 F 125 I G
Average Index
63,565,4
74,979,5
85,088,290,091,499,1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990-1992(GEA)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2002 2003 (Jan-Apr)
Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of half the EU wind industry and several large nuclear plants. In the next 15 years this can be doubled !
Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of half the EU wind industry and several large nuclear plants. In the next 15 years this can be doubled !
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Household electricity consumption by type of appliances: successful energy policies versus
social trends
0
50
100
150
200
Largeappliances
Lighting Smallappliances
TWh
1985 1990 2001
0
50
100
150
200
Largeappliances
Lighting Smallappliances
TWh
1985 1990 2001 53%
21%
26%
51%
19%
30%
45%
19%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Large appliances Lighting Small appliances
1985 1990 2001
53%
21%
26%
51%
19%
30%
45%
19%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Large appliances Lighting Small appliances
1985 1990 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
TW
h
1985 1990 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
TW
h
1985 1990 2001Source: Odyssee Database 2002
Source: Odyssee Database 2002
The race between equipment levels and policy
The race between equipment levels and policy
Labelling Policies
In particular ICT
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Message 1: Successful but….
We were quite successful in improving energy efficiency in the fields where we had coherent policies.
However, behaviour/rebound effects will destroy in many occasions our efforts
Two strategies: either be even more stronger in the technology field or tackle behaviour
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Message from a recent evaluation of energy efficiency measures in the residential sector (EU15)
Source: MURE
www.mure2.com
Source: MURE
www.mure2.com
Summary 1990/2000 2000/2010 2000/2025PJ Mt CO2 PJ Mt CO2 PJ Mt CO2
What we have achieved in the past decade: 500-600 PJ
What we have achieved in the past decade: 500-600 PJ
What we can achieve in an economic manner:
1500 PJ
What we can achieve in an economic manner:
1500 PJ
What we have to achieve according to the proposed EU Energy Service
Directive: 1400 PJ
What we have to achieve according to the proposed EU Energy Service
Directive: 1400 PJ
What we will achieve in the present decade: 500-700 PJ
What we will achieve in the present decade: 500-700 PJ
We need to double our efforts in energy efficiency in the present and in particular the
future decades not taking in account behaviour and living standard !
We need to double our efforts in energy efficiency in the present and in particular the
future decades not taking in account behaviour and living standard !
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Message 2: "Lead policy" measure needed
We need a "lead policy" measure for the field of energy efficiency that can provide us with targets for the next decades similar to the RES-E Directive for renewables
The proposed EU Directive for Energy Service (1% improvement per year beyond autonomous improvement) has the potential for such a "Lead policy" measure and needs a strong political support in all EU member states.
Message 3: Coherent agenda neededWe need a coherent R&D agenda with long-term targets and intermediate milestones beyond FP6 bundling more strongly advances in other fields such as nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, material sciences and efficiency into the improvement of energy efficiency.
This agenda needs to be determined together with the private sector (transport sector, industrial sector, products for the residential sector, supply industries)
We need more energy efficiency technology platforms beyond the steel technology platform proposed currently, based on our problems: e.g "how to reduce consumption levels in existing buildings to the level of new buildings without 50 cm of insulation", "how to reduce stand-by consumption to close to zero", "how to reduce the weight of our cars to the half" (benefit also to hydrogen, electric cars, biofuel cars,…)
We need to communicate the results of this agenda more regularly and more officially to the public: renewables and hydrogen have by far a better PR-Strategy than energy efficiency !
We need to consider behavioural aspects in addition to technology aspects
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D
-The 2000 Watt Society
If you want to build a ship,don ’t drum up the men to gather
wood,divide the work and give orders.
Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.
Antoine de Saint Exupéry
Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D
CEPE (Switzerland)
http://www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications/list.htm#4
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Long-term energy saving potentials industrial sector:
Distance of current energy consumption to
minimum energy consumption
16,10
6,70
3,803,00 2,50 2,40 2,30 1,90 1,50
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Al2O3 NH3 CH3OH P C2H2 (I) Na2CO3 C2H2 (II) CaC2 Cl2
Rat
io
of
curr
ent
spec
ific
en
erg
y co
nsu
mp
tio
n t
o m
inim
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
fro
m c
hem
ical
eq
uat
ion
Alumina
Chlorine
Acethylene II
Phosphor
Methanole
Ammonia
Cl2
from CaOfrom CH4
Calcium Carbide
CaC2
CaC2CaC2CaC2
CH3OH Na2CO3 C2H2 (II)
Acethylene I
SodiumCarbonate
C2H2 (I)
16,10
6,70
3,803,00 2,50 2,40 2,30 1,90 1,50
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Al2O3 NH3 CH3OH P C2H2 (I) Na2CO3 C2H2 (II) CaC2 Cl2
Rat
io
of
curr
ent
spec
ific
en
erg
y co
nsu
mp
tio
n t
o m
inim
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
fro
m c
hem
ical
eq
uat
ion
Alumina
Chlorine
Acethylene II
Phosphor
Methanole
Ammonia
Cl2
from CaOfrom CH4
Calcium Carbide
CaC2
CaC2CaC2CaC2
CH3OH Na2CO3 C2H2 (II)
Acethylene I
SodiumCarbonate
C2H2 (I)
2,40
4,004,30
6,507,10
9,50
10,90
12,60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cu (Fe)SR+OS Pb (Fe)BF+OS (Fe3C)SR Zn (Fe3C)BF Alprim
Classical lead shaft furnaceClassical lead shaft furnaceQSL processQSL process
…but not impossible…but not impossible
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Lead Smelting (QSL-Process in Germany)
The essential energetical progress of the new process consisted in:
the unification of two previously separate process steps in one reaction vessel, of which one is exothermal (lead roasting), the other endothermal (lead reduction).
in the reduction of recirculated raw materials in the sinter step
In the demonstration phase 40 % energy savings were achieved, in the industrial application over 25 %. Investment costs were lowered by about 20 %.
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Applications of nanotechnology for the energy sector
Energy Generation
Energy Transfor- mation
Energy Storage
Efficiency Im-provement of conventional technology
Nanoparticles Dye Solar Cells Metal oxides/metals Fuel Additives
Carbon Nano-tubes and Fullerenes
Organic Solar Cells
Catalysts Hydrogen Storage
Supercondenser
Nanocomposites / Nanoceramics
Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Bat-teries and Accu-mulators
Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Batteries and Accumulators
Nanocermics and Coatings
Magnetic Materi-als
OLEDs for Dis-plays and Light-ing
Super Conducting Materials
Super Con-ducting Ca-bles
Super Conducting Storage Coils
Energy Generation
Energy Transfor- mation
Energy Storage
Efficiency Im-provement of conventional technology
Nanoparticles Dye Solar Cells Metal oxides/metals Fuel Additives
Carbon Nano-tubes and Fullerenes
Organic Solar Cells
Catalysts Hydrogen Storage
Supercondenser
Nanocomposites / Nanoceramics
Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Bat-teries and Accu-mulators
Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Batteries and Accumulators
Nanocermics and Coatings
Magnetic Materi-als
OLEDs for Dis-plays and Light-ing
Super Conducting Materials
Super Con-ducting Ca-bles
Super Conducting Storage Coils
Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Supercapacitors to avoid
oversizing of car engines
Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D
CEPE (Switzerland)
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Looking beyond present savings: More economic flat
screens…rethinking our products in the light of energy efficiency right from the R&D
stage
Source:
Science et Vie 2004
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Application of biotechnological processes to energy supply and demand
Production of energy sources from various raw materials and sources: Established processes use biomass in order to generate hydrogen, ethanol, methanol, and acetone with butanol and ethanol (ABE). Innovative process optimization focus on the use of cheaper carbon sources and aim on the improvement of strains and strain metabolism by genetic engineering. A third area for innovation is the improved efficiency of product recovery.
Biogas and biomass for energy generation employ biotechnological techniques as well, however at present there are little efforts for high-tech improvement.
Application of photosynthesis for energy generation. At present this process is pure basic research. According to experts industrial applications are expected to have a long term perspective for commercialization.
Bioleaching: extraction of specific metals from their ores through the use of bacteria (relevant for low-concentration ores, e.g. for copper.
Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
The long-term improvement of energy efficiency has many legs...
Direct efficiency improvement in the chain from energy supply to use
Process substitution
Lowering the demand for useful energy
Recycling of energy-intensive materials
Reduce the specific material consumption (”Dematerialisation”)
Product recycling and lifetime extension/ intensification of product use
Use of biogenic raw materials
Energy
Material
See also: Dematerialisation less clear than it seemswww.vhknet.com/download/dematerialisation.pdf
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Informal Environment Council - Dutch EU presidency (16-18 July 2004)
How to make eco-efficiency innovations happen in practice
How to make eco-efficiency innovations happen in practice
Objective: emphasise on strategic chances for European industry: Eco-efficiency as main driver for creating a highly innovative European industry. In a Porter perspective, Europe has a unique possibility to create jobs and strong (new) industries for the future by emphasising eco-efficiency as a key drive.
Scoping: Use eco-efficiency as a key motor of European competitiveness
Concrete goal:
Development of eco-efficient systems - with the aim of building global leadership in new industrial markets (including the service economy). Broader than just environmental technologies
More focus on industry (putting eco-efficiency into action) and high level policy makers (supportive instruments)
Chose investments in eco-efficient systems that are (or can become) highly competitive in the global market
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Message 4: Innovation supporting policy context
Innovations for energy efficiency can only grow in a steady policy environment providing strong incentives and clear messages (unless the oil exporting countries and oil price speculation are doing the job for us). High energy prices (but lower energy cost for the consumer at the end!) are unfortunately part of such an innovation supporting context.
See also: Clean, Clever and CompetitivePresidency conclusions Informal Environment Council 16-18 July 2004www2.vrom.nl/docs/internationaal/IEC_Conclusions.pdf
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Potential for energy efficiency
improvement in New
EU Members
(1)
Source: www.ceec-indicators.org
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Potential for energy efficiency
improvement in New
EU Members
(2)
Source: www.ceec-indicators.org
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Message 5: Seize opportunities
The new EU Member States have through the renewal of their production tools as well as the car and building stocks the chance to take energy efficiency improvement very seriously into account. Once this moment is over, the chance will only come back …30-100 years later
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung
Energy Efficiency R&D Fields for Co-operation in the Weimar Triangle and beyond
Setting a common and comprehensive European agenda for energy efficiency based on a White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D aiming at a 1% improvement for energy efficiency per year for at least half of this century. This strategy should include and bundle in particular advances for energy efficiency in the fields of nanotechnologies, biotechnologies and material sciences.
Supporting "Lead Policies" such as the proposed Energy Service Directive that pave the way for short as well as long-term energy efficiency improvements.
Creating, in co-operation with industrial actors, innovation clusters /centres for excellence / technology platforms in the field of energy efficiency
Investigating behavioural aspects of efficient use of energy
Extending monitoring and evaluation tools for energy efficiency such as ODYSSEE (www.odyssee-indicators.org) and MURE (www.mure2.com) to New Member States (partially ongoing)