1 Energy and Climate Change Select Committee A Severn Barrage ? Supplementary Evidence – An Alternative Approach Mr Tim Yeo, MP Chairman, Energy and Climate Change Select Committee Dear Chairman Thank you again for the opportunity to give evidence to the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee hearing on 30th January 2013. As you indicated at the end of the session, the time available for questions in the second session was very limited and so I would like to take up your kind offer to submit additional written evidence. The submission below expands on the questions that I was asked at the committee and also reflects on some of the new information which has now been made public by Hafren Power. I would also like to acknowledge the contributions made by the members of the South West Marine Energy Park and in particular Parsons Brinckerhoff, whose detailed knowledge of the tidal power challenges and opportunities in the Severn has been particularly helpful. Firstly I would like to reiterate, as I said in my evidence to the committee, that the position of Regen SW and the South West MEP is not “anti-barrage” in principle. In fact, as organisations, we spend most of our working day supporting and winning approval for large scale renewable projects, which will be essential to meet the challenge of climate change. We do however have serious concerns about the practical viability and wider impacts of a barrage solution and, while we have come to the conclusion that a Severn Barrage is extremely unlikely to be built , we are also concerned that the focus on a barrage proposal will reduce the likelihood that other more realistic schemes will come forward. Fundamental difficulties with the Severn Barrage as proposed by Hafren Power Technology readiness and timescale Environmental Impacts – including fish migration Zero sum economic impacts – on strategic ports and wider UK industry Cost and Financing Assumptions Loss of stakeholder goodwill and mistrust of Hafren Power’s proposals (Appendix A gives more detail as to why we believe these issues have not been addressed, and therefore make the construction of the barrage extremely unlikely )
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1
Energy and Climate Change Select Committee
A Severn Barrage ?
Supplementary Evidence – An Alternative Approach
Mr Tim Yeo, MP
Chairman,
Energy and Climate Change Select Committee
Dear Chairman
Thank you again for the opportunity to give evidence to the Energy and Climate Change
Select Committee hearing on 30th January 2013. As you indicated at the end of the session,
the time available for questions in the second session was very limited and so I would like to
take up your kind offer to submit additional written evidence.
The submission below expands on the questions that I was asked at the committee and also
reflects on some of the new information which has now been made public by Hafren Power. I
would also like to acknowledge the contributions made by the members of the South West
Marine Energy Park and in particular Parsons Brinckerhoff, whose detailed knowledge of the
tidal power challenges and opportunities in the Severn has been particularly helpful.
Firstly I would like to reiterate, as I said in my evidence to the committee, that the position of
Regen SW and the South West MEP is not “anti-barrage” in principle. In fact, as
organisations, we spend most of our working day supporting and winning approval for large
scale renewable projects, which will be essential to meet the challenge of climate change.
We do however have serious concerns about the practical viability and wider impacts of a
barrage solution and, while we have come to the conclusion that a Severn Barrage is
extremely unlikely to be built, we are also concerned that the focus on a barrage proposal will
reduce the likelihood that other more realistic schemes will come forward.
Fundamental difficulties with the Severn Barrage as proposed by Hafren Power
Technology readiness and timescale
Environmental Impacts – including fish migration
Zero sum economic impacts – on strategic ports and wider UK industry
Cost and Financing Assumptions
Loss of stakeholder goodwill and mistrust of Hafren Power’s proposals
(Appendix A gives more detail as to why we believe these issues have not been
addressed, and therefore make the construction of the barrage extremely unlikely )
2
While the debate around the barrage continues, there is a clear consensus that the Severn
Estuary and wider Bristol Channel offers the UK a massive energy potential. We believe that
this energy potential could be harnessed using a range of technologies in a way which would
balance the objective of securing large amounts of low carbon energy with the impacts such
schemes will have on the environment and other marine interests. Our approach would also
provide a springboard to support the development of new technology and enhance the UK’s
leadership position in the growing global marine energy sector thereby creating further jobs
and export opportunities.
Since the publication of our discussion paper (Bristol Tidal Energy: A Balanced Technology
Approach), we have received a huge amount of positive interest from the industry and from
other key stakeholders. No one, on either side of the barrage debate, seems to disagree with
the proposition that we ought to explore ways to harness the energy potential of the estuary,
and indeed many of the protagonists against the barrage are actively engaged in looking for
alternative solutions.
Bristol Tidal Energy Forum 8th March & Sustainable Severn 18th April
This is a theme which the tidal industry will explore further at the 4th Bristol Tidal Energy
Forum on 8th March at the National Composites Centre, and with wider stakeholders at the
Sustainable Severn event on 27th April – both events to which you and your committee
members would be very welcome to attend.
So there is clearly a huge amount of goodwill and support from the industry, environmental
groups and wider public to the idea of developing renewable projects in the Severn estuary
and Bristol Channel. The challenge for the industry is to come up with a strategy which will
enable the UK to generate significant energy capacity, using both established and new
technology, at a cost which is acceptable to the UK energy consumer.
The challenge is also to show how energy projects can be deployed in the near term. The
issue of climate change and energy security is immediate and so we fully support the ethos of
getting projects into production as quickly as the technology costs and risks will allow.
We believe that a multi-technology approach, as outlined in our discussion paper and
described in more detail below, can provide the basis for a new strategy. Our next step will be
to work with industry partners to develop the Balanced Technology approach and to bring
forward specific energy project and technology development proposals. Our perspective on
the Severn is not different to that of the Government’s in 2008 when it published the terms of
reference for the Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study – “generate electricity from the
renewable tidal range resource of the Severn Estuary in ways that will have an acceptable
overall impact on the environment and economy both locally and nationally”.
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Support from ECC Select Committee and UK Government
To enable this to happen however we need support from the ECC Select Committee and from
UK Government. Specifically we would like the Select Committee to make a strong statement
of support to:
Reinforce the UK Government’s commitment to the development of marine
technologies and the development of tidal energy projects, not only in the Bristol
Channel, but around the UK. This commitment is especially important at a time when
Government is setting investment priorities through the EMR process.
Establish a proper process and governance structure to lead and evaluate options
for energy development in the Bristol Channel. This needs to bring together industry
and stakeholders on both Welsh and English sides of the Bristol Channel together
with national bodies such as the MMO and Crown Estate.
Support a twin track approach of using existing technology solutions such as smaller
scale tidal range lagoons to achieve short term delivery whilst developing more
innovative tidal technologies for subsequent deployment in the UK and overseas.
Create a collaborative technology development programme to both develop and
evaluate new tidal range technology, and to understand its economic and
environmental impacts. This could be run through the Technology Strategy Board
Yours sincerely Johnny Gowdy Programme Director Regen SW and South West Marine Energy Park
4
1 Balanced Technology Approach Overview
I was asked by the committee to give an overview of the “Balanced Technology Approach”,
which was the title of a paper published by Regen SW and Marine Energy Matters in
November 2012. This paper has had significant review and input from industry both through
the Bristol Tidal Energy Forum and the South West Marine Energy Park.
In my response, I described the overall
approach we took which was to look
holistically at the range of energy resources
in the channel – tidal range, tidal stream,
wind and wave energy. Using multi
technology approach our analysis suggests
could deliver up to 14 GW on renewable
energy capacity.
The advantage of this approach is that we can develop and adopt new technologies as they
become cost effective. By focusing on technology that can be deployed incrementally we also
have the opportunity to drive down costs and understand their environmental and other
impacts before deploying large scale projects. We can also use this approach as a catalyst to
support supply chain development and technology export around the world.
Some technologies e.g. wind are available today. Tidal Lagoons could also be built using
existing technology or used to develop a new generation of Low Head Bi-directional turbines.
Floating wind, tidal stream and tidal fences will take longer but already the leading companies
are moving forward with commercial projects. Wave energy is the furthest behind, but once
developed at large scale – probably in the mid 2020’s - wave energy has the potential to
become a truly global low cost energy resource.
South Korean Experience
In my evidence to the committee I briefly mentioned the approach which was been taken in
Korea. There are 5 tidal range projects currently built or planned in Korea. We would describe
these as Tidal Lagoon projects since they impound a body of water, using islands and
headlands to create tidal lagoons, without blocking main channels or estuaries.
The major difference in approach is the size of the projects – the first Shiwa barrage which
has been built is only 250 MW. Three other proposed projects are between 250 and 500 MW.
Only the Incheon barrage – which has not yet received planning – is over 1 GW. This
approach means that the Koreans have a succession of projects to develop and prove
technology – and understand risks – before moving to larger schemes.
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2 Tidal Energy Potential
The Balanced Technology approach suggests that we look at all forms of renewable energy
generation in the Bristol Channel including Offshore Wind, Floating Wind and Wave Energy.
We have taken this holistic approach because from the point of view of cumulative
environmental impacts, grid, supply chain development, economic development, port
infrastructure, skills etc - all these technologies are linked. Our wider vision is to turn the
region into an energy cluster bringing benefits to both Welsh and English sides of the channel.
It is also important that we continue to support projects such as the Atlantic Array Offshore
Wind Farm which will be the first mega project in the Bristol Channel, and as such can play a
key role to kick start investment in the supply chain and port infrastructure that we will need to
support future energy projects.
In total our high level analysis suggested that a multi technology approach could provide 5 to
14 GW of renewable energy capacity using wind, wave and tidal technology. For the purpose
of this submission to the committee I will however focus on Tidal Energy so that a direct
comparison can be drawn with the Severn Barrage proposals.
2.1 Tidal Range
Our balanced technology approach uses both tidal range and tidal stream technologies but
recognises the environmental and regional economic impacts of tidal range and the cost and
development timeframes of tidal stream.
From an engineering perspective, the technology to develop tidal range options exists and, as
is evident from La Rance, whilst it is expensive to construct and finance, it can become one of
the least expensive forms of generation and also one of the most reliable. As the committee
heard from Vincent de Laleu of EDF, after 40 years La Rance is now one of the cheapest
forms of energy generation in France and technically has been viewed as a success with its
original bulb turbines still in operation.
The advantage of tidal range technology is its predictability and the potential for long term
cost reduction.
In our view the development of a number of Tidal Lagoons could be a better alternative to
realise these advantages without the inherent disadvantages of a barrage blocking the entire
estuary. Tidal Lagoons could be developed today, using existing turbine technology or used in
part to develop and demonstrate a new generation of low head bi-directional turbines. A
series of individual Lagoons could be tailored and compartmentalised to provide more flexible
energy generation over a longer tidal cycle.
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Critically Tidal Lagoons offer the potential to start relatively small – 200-300 MW – and then to
increase scale as technology costs are reduced and impacts fully understood. The
construction of the Lagoon wall – using pre-fabricated caissons – could also be streamlined
and cost engineered. While Lagoons would also have environmental impacts – and loss of
intertidal habitat – their location could be carefully chosen to limit these impacts and given the
smaller size of the schemes mitigation in the form of compensatory habitat put in place.
Lagoons would have to be designed to be fish friendly – but would not have the same impacts
on fish migration. . To our knowledge there has not yet been a study of tidal lagoon potential
in the UK but the sites identified on the Severn are indicative of their potential.
The 2010 DECC study showed that land connected tidal lagoons performed more strongly
than had been previously recognised, providing the appropriate location was selected. Whilst
this study was focused on maximising the energy potential of the Severn.
Since that study was completed, a number of options for smaller land connected lagoons
have also been developed including the Swansea Bay Lagoon and the Stepping Stones
Lagoon (a larger option developed by the lead consultants on the DECC Feasibility Study).
The Swansea Bay Lagoon project – 250 MW –
planned to be connected by 2020.
The EIS Scoping Report for this project has now
been submitted to the IPC and can be found on
their website.
http://www.tidallagoonswanseabay.com
In their work on the Stepping Stones Lagoon, Parsons Brinckerhoff and Black & Veatch
have developed and costed a design that has a lower levelised cost (c£195 at a 10% discount
rate for a £1.7bn capital cost and annual energy yield of 1.2TWH/yr) than the equivalent
Severn Barrage (c£23bn cost and annual yield of c16TWh/yr) using the same cost principles
and discount rates.
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Stepping Stones Lagoon – Location and Caisson design
Images courtesy of Parsons Brinckerhoff
It is worth noting their comments that a levelised cost will be higher than the equivalent strike
price due to the effects of inflation – the strike price is inflated whilst levelised costs are not –
as capital cost intensive projects incur most of their costs in the construction years, the effect
of future inflation is to increase revenues through an indexed strike price but not the costs.
They have also established that a tidal lagoon could be consented within 5 years and,
because of its relatively small size relative to the estuary, could be helpful in developing the
evidence base on the Severn whilst minimising adverse impacts relative to other larger
options.
As with other long life projects, the Stepping Stones costs reduce after the financing period to
£30/MWh@10%, less than the wholesale cost of electricity. Although the Stepping Stones
Lagoon uses existing mature technology (which is why it can be consented and constructed
reasonably quickly subject to it being embraced by future marine energy policy), it could also
be used to test new, more innovative turbines in addition, again informing future energy
options. The above referenced tidal lagoons are located downstream of the protected areas
under the Habitats and Wild Birds Directives and thus present a less resistant route to
development than other options further upstream. Their downstream locations also mean that
they should not compromise the development of other tidal power options.
Successful deployment of smaller land connected tidal lagoons will increase interest in larger
options whilst the time taken for consenting and construction will see other technologies such
as tidal stream become more mature and commercially proven. Collectively this builds the
position of the UK as a leader in marine technology both in terms of generation capacity and
supply chain capability.
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Industry Support for Tidal Lagoons
In their submission to the barrage enquiry the original Severn Tidal Power Group, while not
ruling out a future barrage, have suggested that a Tidal Lagoon options would be a good first
step towards harnessing tidal energy in the Bristol Channel.
The ‘Stepping Stones’ lagoon concept developed by Parsons Brinckerhoff and Black &
Veatch seems to meet the requirements of a first step on the pathway. It has little impact on
protected environmental areas, is of a size that can be developed by the private sector (given
planning consent), and uses proven technology. Also, it does not interfere with the
development of larger barrage proposals, nor the operation of the existing ports.
Lessons learned from the construction and operation of such a scheme, including
environmental impacts, would provide valuable for evidence-based evaluation of a
CardiffWeston barrage later along the pathway.
We therefore consider that the merits of developing such a scheme should be carefully
considered by the Select Committee.
The STPG includes major industrial companies including Sir Robert McAlpine, Balfour Beatty,
Alstom and Taylor Woodrow.
2.2 Tidal Stream and Tidal Fences
The UK is a world leading centre for the development of tidal stream technologies. Indeed two
of the leading companies – Tidal Generation Limited (Owned by Alstom) and Marine Current
Turbines (Owned by Siemens) are based in Bristol.
Although the leaders in the field of tidal stream technology development are currently focused
on high current ( >5m/s) deep channels around the UK such as Pentland Firth, and elsewhere
in the world, the potential to exploit fast currents (2.5 m/s) in shallower waters has a much
larger potential market world-wide. It is therefore essential that the UK continues to support
tidal stream technology development and research and open up new sites for deployment to
maintain its leadership position.
This is why we are seeing technologies using new concepts such as cross flow, hydrofoil,
multi turbine foundations and tidal fences now coming forward. The leading turbine
technology developers are also looking ahead to see how the next generation of tidal turbines
could be adapted for shallower waters exactly like the Bristol Channel.
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The Bristol Channel combines good tidal
velocities with comparatively shallow water 20-
30m. in the medium term, we expect the 2nd
generation of tidal steam technology to target
lower velocity sites (<2.5 m/s) in shallower
waters which are close to areas of high energy
demand.
The unique characteristics of the Severn are
ideal for this and a number of proposals have
been developed to pursue this. These include
the licensing of an area off Lynmouth, North
Devon by Pulse Tidal.
Tidal fence technologies – such as the design
from Kepler - could increase energy output by
combining the both tidal velocity (stream) and
tidal head (range) energy sources.
The Severn Tidal Fence Proposal by IT Power between Aberthaw and Minehead which was
reviewed by the STE’s study could have a potential capacity of 400-600 MW.
2.3 Tidal Energy Development Pathway
The Bristol Channel Energy: A Balanced Technology Approach Paper provide a very
broad range estimate of the energy capacity potential for Tidal Range and Tidal Stream:
Tidal Range – 1 - 5 GW
Tidal Stream - 0.5 - 1.25 GW
We have been asked by the committee and by others in the industry to provide more detail on
the potential projects with some idea of the possible deployment timescales. This is difficult to
do precisely since in many cases these projects and their supporting technologies are at an
early stage of development.
The table below however gives an overview of the possible projects which could be brought
forward, with a potential upside estimate of over 7 GW of capacity, without compromising the
ports, with reduced environmental impact and providing a platform for a sustainable and
developing export market in tidal energy.
10
Tidal Energy Bristol Channel – Potential Projects and Timscales
Time
frame
Option Status Capacity
(MW)
Energy PA
(TWh/yr)
2010
–
2020
Swansea Bay Lagoon Scoping Study submitted to
IPC (2012)
200 0.4
Stepping Stones Lagoon
(see Fig 1))
Outline Design & Costings
developed & stakeholders
consulted (2012)
600 1.2
Lynton Tidal commercial
demonstration site
Licence granted 3 n/a
Pembrokeshire –
Ramsey Sound Demo
Site
Licence granted 3
North Somerset Tidal
Demo/Early Commercial
Site scoping 10-30 n/a
Ramsey Sound Early
Commercial
Site Scoping 10-30 n/a
2020-
2030
Bridgwater Bay Lagoon
(see Fig 1 – L3d)
Outline Design and Costings
developed (DECC 2010)
3,600 7.2
New Lagoon between
Clevedon and Weston
Potential site identified
(2012)
750 1.5
Tidal Fence (See Fig 1 –
between Minehead and
Aberthaw)
Outline design and costings
developed under SETS
(DECC 2010)
400-600 0.88
Tidal Arrays – around
headlands and islands in
outer Bristol Channel
Potential sites identified
(2010)
800 1.8
Shoots Barrage (see Fig
1 – B4)
Outline design & costings
developed (DECC 2010)
1,150 2.7
Totals 7,2
00
15.7
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3 A Wider UK Opportunity
We did not have time at the committee hearing to discuss the potential economic benefits
from marine energy development. I would however like to take this opportunity to emphasise
again that the UK is a leading centre for the development of wave and tidal technologies.
Regen SW has estimated that in the south west there are currently over 500 people employed
in the marine energy sector. A key to this sector growth has been the engagement through
the universities and supply chain companies in the regions
For more information about the growth of the marine energy sector in the south west of
England please download the South West Marine Energy Park Prospectus and the South
West Marine Energy Supply Chain Directory
While the barrage discussion has focused on opportunities within the Bristol Channel there
are also emerging hubs for tidal energy deployment and technology development in:
Scotland - especially around the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters – but also
opportunities for Tidal Lagoons in the western Isles
The Channel Islands – massive resource potential
Isle of Wight and Southhampton
Ramsgate/Thanet
Liverpool Bay – Tidal Lagoons
North Wales and Anglesey
Northern Ireland – 600 MW currently in leasing
There are also emerging tidal energy markets in France, Canada, Korea, Japan and China.
The sector has now begun to attract investment from a number of major multinational
companies. MCT has now been bought by Siemens and TGL is now owned by Alstom. Other
industrial investors in the sector include DCNS, ABB, Kawasaki, Voith, Hyundai. The lack of
investment by UK industrial companies is however a concern.
The UK marine energy sector will play a small but important role in meeting the UK’s 2020
renewables target but it will be an increasingly important contributor to decarbonising the
electricity sector in 2030 and meeting the Climate Change Act’s 2050 target.
It will also play a significant role in meeting other countries decarbonisation targets,
particularly if it is supported in developing a sustainable pathway that embraces both tidal
range and emerging tidal stream advances and has the widespread support of stakeholders.
Other countries will also have tidal energy resources that double as shipping lanes. If the UK
is to be successful in marine energy on a global basis, it is important that we develop a
marine energy sector that is able to demonstrate how it can exploit energy without
compromising important economic activity and with broad stakeholder support.