Electric Drive Policy Outlook

Electric Drive Policy OutlookGenevieve Cullen

President, EDTA

EDTA

• Vehicle/Component Manufacturers

• Utilities/Power Generation Companies

• Charging/Infrastructure Companies

• Energy/Materials Developers

• Fleet Operators/Industry Stakeholders

2016 Sales

Global Adoption

• 2011: 45k worldwide sales • 2012: 113k worldwide sales

LDV Sales Projections

Infrastructure

• Levels 1, 2 and DC Fast Charge

• Deployment – 14,899 (38,357 outlets) Public Charging Facilities -excludes home, private, workplace charging facilities

• Market evolution: public/private and cross-industry partnerships to build out next wave of infrastructure (MDU; intra and interstate corridors)

• Tax

• RD&D

• Regulations

Policy Drivers in the Electric Drive Market

• Policies

Election

Administration• Uncertainty • Priorities• Cabinet choices

Congress Republican Majorities in House & Senate Priorities Uncertainties

Senate

Tax Policy in the 115th Congress

• Current Tax Policy – Incentives for purchase of Vehicles (plug-in, fuel cell) – Incentive for purchase of Alt Fuel Infrastructure

(individual and business credit)

Outlook • Extenders – 30B; 30C• Reform – 30D, B and C • Politics and Pay-fors

Direct Federal Spending

Research Development & Deployment • DOE Sustainable Transportation ($668)

– Vehicle Technologies (FY16- $310m)» Clean Cities » EV Everywhere

– Fuel Cell technologies (FY16- $101m)

• DoT Clean Fuels Corridors – no $ technology neutral but “alt fuels” interest of the department may be de-prioritized

• Energy bill – statutory program status for RD&D in S 2102

Infrastructure plans

• Infrastructure - $1 trillion proposed– Tax credits for private investment in infrastructure – Some federal investment (bonds?) – no definition of infrastructure from new

Administration • Outlook

– Enthusiasm across Houses and Admin priority– Funding vs Financing – Tied to tax reform or not

Regulatory Drivers

• Current and next phase federal fuel economy/emission standards 2017-2022-2025, beyond

• Federal and state clean air reg & incentives• Regulating GHG: CAA – endangerment ruling (enables carbon regulation

under Clean Air Act) • Clean Power Plan for utility emissions • State regulation of vehicle emissions: CA CAA WAIVER (midterm review

and ZEV mandate beyond 2025)

Others: Quiet Car Rules, RFS, Oversight on Autonomy regulation, expected emphasis on de-regulating fossil energy extraction and generation

• Other Market Factors • Gas prices/Oil Markets • New Cooperative Models with Public & Private

partners • Infrastructure investment• New mobility models – autonomy/shared

mobility and electrification • Smart cities

• State regulatory and incentive environments• Global Market Drivers

• International commitments• National regimes • Impact of revised US stance

Beyond Washington

Genevieve Cullen | President Electric Drive Transportation Association

[email protected] www.electricdrive.org