Elections and Elections and Campaigns Campaigns
Dec 17, 2015
Elections and Elections and CampaignsCampaigns
ElectionsElections
Opportunity to choose who controls Opportunity to choose who controls governmentgovernment
Citizens’ main official inputCitizens’ main official input
LegitimacyLegitimacy
AccountabilityAccountability
Retrospective votingRetrospective voting
Prospective votingProspective voting
Elections And AccountabilityElections And Accountability
Candidates are motivated by electoral Candidates are motivated by electoral successsuccess
Elected officials wish to continue to hold Elected officials wish to continue to hold officeoffice
Ensures at least some responsivenessEnsures at least some responsiveness
Move towards centerMove towards center
Balancing actBalancing act
Elected OfficesElected Offices
FederalFederal PresidentPresident CongressCongress
StateState GovernorGovernor State LegislatureState Legislature Judges (sometimes)Judges (sometimes)
Local ElectionsLocal Elections County BoardsCounty Boards MayorMayor City CouncilCity Council School BoardsSchool Boards Other officesOther offices
Types of ElectionTypes of Election
General ElectionGeneral Election
Primary ElectionPrimary Election OpenOpen ClosedClosed Non-PartisanNon-Partisan
Referenda and RecallReferenda and Recall
ReferendumReferendum
InitiativeInitiative
May Increase May Increase ResponsivenessResponsiveness
Majority Tyranny?Majority Tyranny?
ConfusionConfusion
Recall Recall In Many States for certain In Many States for certain
officesoffices Not at federal levelNot at federal level
RetentionRetention
Presidential PrimariesPresidential Primaries
Select delegates for national conventionSelect delegates for national convention Winner take allWinner take all Proportional representationProportional representation
CaucusCaucus
Trend towards more primaries and more Trend towards more primaries and more open caucusesopen caucuses
Voting in primariesVoting in primaries
Open PrimaryOpen Primary
Closed PrimaryClosed Primary
More democratic?More democratic?
Extremism?Extremism?
Primary voters more partisanPrimary voters more partisan
PrimariesPrimaries
Used to select convention delegatesUsed to select convention delegates
Divisive Primaries Can Hurt Divisive Primaries Can Hurt
Early vs. LateEarly vs. Late
Convention BattleConvention Battle
Choice of VPChoice of VP
More conflict->less chanceMore conflict->less chance
Primaries Primaries
Front LoadingFront LoadingE.g. New Hampshire, IowaE.g. New Hampshire, IowaMomentumMomentumIncreases Importance of Small StatesIncreases Importance of Small StatesIncreases Importance of fundraisingIncreases Importance of fundraisingBenefits Front RunnerBenefits Front RunnerQuality of CandidatesQuality of CandidatesRegional PrimariesRegional Primaries E.g. Super TuesdayE.g. Super Tuesday
ConventionsConventions
Early- Party ControlEarly- Party Control
Uncommitted Uncommitted delegatesdelegates
ConflictConflict
ConventionsConventions
Delegates selected by Delegates selected by primariesprimaries
Democrats- Democrats- Proportional Proportional RepresentationRepresentation
Delegates- more Delegates- more ideological extreme, ideological extreme, more elite than more elite than averageaverage
Conventions- FunctionsConventions- Functions
No Longer Key to choosing candidateNo Longer Key to choosing candidate
Announce VPAnnounce VP
Vote on platform stating party principlesVote on platform stating party principles
AdvertisementAdvertisement
Post convention bouncePost convention bounce
Electoral CollegeElectoral College
Low profileLow profile
Original intent- overcome lack of informationOriginal intent- overcome lack of information
Representation=house+senateRepresentation=house+senate
Early- cast two votes, winner is president, runner Early- cast two votes, winner is president, runner up VPup VP
1212thth amendment- Shift to 2 separate votes amendment- Shift to 2 separate votes
Today, varying degrees of delegate discretionToday, varying degrees of delegate discretion
If no majority winner, decided in houseIf no majority winner, decided in house
Electoral CollegeElectoral College
Can distort ResultsCan distort Results
Usually, Popular winner wins by greater Usually, Popular winner wins by greater marginmargin
Popular winner can losePopular winner can lose 2000 Bush wins 271-2662000 Bush wins 271-266 Without Florida, Gore Wins 266-244Without Florida, Gore Wins 266-244 2004- If Kerry had won Ohio, would have lost 2004- If Kerry had won Ohio, would have lost
popular vote, won presidencypopular vote, won presidency
Reforming Electoral College Reforming Electoral College
Count at district level Count at district level
Abolish elector discretion Abolish elector discretion
Abolish collegeAbolish college
Congressional ElectionsCongressional Elections
CoattailsCoattails
Incumbency advantageIncumbency advantage
Midterm electionsMidterm elections
Low turnoutLow turnout
President’s party President’s party UsuallyUsually loses seats loses seats
Counting VotesCounting Votes
US- First Past the Post Plurality SystemUS- First Past the Post Plurality System
May Minimize representation of minority May Minimize representation of minority opinionsopinions
Partly responsible for 2 party politicsPartly responsible for 2 party politics
Proportional representationProportional representation
Assign seats in proportion to total voteAssign seats in proportion to total vote
De-emphasizes individuals, emphasizes De-emphasizes individuals, emphasizes partiesparties
Voter BehaviorVoter Behavior
Two Key IssuesTwo Key Issues
Decision to participateDecision to participate
Decision whom to vote forDecision whom to vote for
TurnoutTurnout
Voting one form of political participationVoting one form of political participationLowest “cost” of participationLowest “cost” of participationDecision to vote a function of perceived Decision to vote a function of perceived benefit, probability of influencing outcome, benefit, probability of influencing outcome, cost of votingcost of votingV=P(B)-CV=P(B)-CDoesn’t have to be explicitDoesn’t have to be explicitMost reasons people don’t vote fit into P, Most reasons people don’t vote fit into P, B, or CB, or C
Reasons for not votingReasons for not voting
Inconvenience (cost)Inconvenience (cost)
One vote doesn’t matter (probability)One vote doesn’t matter (probability)
Little difference between parties (benefit)Little difference between parties (benefit)
Reforms To Increase TurnoutReforms To Increase Turnout
Motor Voter (1992)Motor Voter (1992)
Easier Absentee votingEasier Absentee voting
National HolidayNational Holiday
2 Day voting2 Day voting
Who Doesn’t Vote?Who Doesn’t Vote?
Those less interested in politicsThose less interested in politicsYoungYoungLess EducatedLess EducatedLower IncomeLower IncomeBlacks?Blacks?Why? Why? Job FlexibilityJob FlexibilityLack of EfficacyLack of EfficacyLack of Civic Skills?Lack of Civic Skills?
Non voting- Does it matter?Non voting- Does it matter?
No- Sign of general satisfactionNo- Sign of general satisfaction
No- curbs radicalismNo- curbs radicalism
No- Sends message of dissatisfactionNo- Sends message of dissatisfaction
Yes- Winners will claim mandate anywayYes- Winners will claim mandate anyway
Yes- Opinions of non-voters very different Yes- Opinions of non-voters very different from those of votersfrom those of voters
Yes- weakens systemYes- weakens system
What determines the vote?What determines the vote?
Long term predispositionsLong term predispositions
Party IdentificationParty Identification
As a social groupingAs a social grouping
As a heuristicAs a heuristic
IdeologyIdeology
Ticket SplittingTicket Splitting
What determines the vote?What determines the vote?
Demographic factorsDemographic factorsRaceRaceBlacks- Heavily DemocraticBlacks- Heavily DemocraticWhites- Slight tilt RepublicanWhites- Slight tilt RepublicanAsian/Latino- MixedAsian/Latino- MixedGenderGenderIncomeIncomeEducationEducationReligionReligion
What determines the vote?What determines the vote?
Short term forcesShort term forces
IssuesIssues
Single issue votersSingle issue voters
Issue ownershipIssue ownership
Issue salienceIssue salience
What determines the vote?What determines the vote?
The economyThe economy
RetrospectiveRetrospective
ProspectiveProspective
PocketbookPocketbook
Sociotropic Sociotropic
Most Important- Prospective SociotropicMost Important- Prospective Sociotropic
Economy and predictionEconomy and prediction
What Determines the vote?What Determines the vote?
CandidatesCandidatesTraitsTraitsLeadershipLeadershipStrengthStrengthCompetenceCompetenceCompassion/empathyCompassion/empathyInsider/outsiderInsider/outsiderExperienceExperience
What determines the vote?What determines the vote?
The mediaThe media
PrimingPriming
ImageImage
Horse raceHorse race
What determines the vote?What determines the vote?
CampaignsCampaigns
Public AppearancesPublic Appearances
SpeechesSpeeches
DebatesDebates
SpinSpin
MisstepsMissteps
AdvertisingAdvertising
General CampaignGeneral Campaign
Turn out supportersTurn out supporters
Convert swing votersConvert swing voters
Target certain statesTarget certain states
Swing StatesSwing States
Electoral College VotesElectoral College Votes
Public Appearance Public Appearance
Campaign and the MediaCampaign and the Media
The MessageThe Message
Sound BytesSound Bytes
Campaign handlersCampaign handlers
SpinSpin
Horse race coverageHorse race coverage
DebatesDebates
AdvertisingAdvertising
Largest Campaign expenditureLargest Campaign expenditure
Narrowly or Broadly targetedNarrowly or Broadly targeted
Usually short spots Usually short spots
IssuesIssues
ImagesImages
Attack Attack
Negative advertisingNegative advertising
Widely despisedWidely despisedMay be effectiveMay be effectiveIssue contentIssue contentTurnoutTurnoutIyengar- Demobilizes votersIyengar- Demobilizes votersOthers- No effect on turnout, or even slight increaseOthers- No effect on turnout, or even slight increaseStevens- Mobilization depends on expertiseStevens- Mobilization depends on expertiseBacklashBacklashInterest GroupsInterest GroupsFree exposureFree exposure