El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España. 4ª Sesión Temática. “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía nuclear” Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio. Madrid, 19-4-2004
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El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución.
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El suministro mundial de petróleo y gas natural: incertidumbres y desafíos
Mariano Marzo(Facultat de Geologia, UB)
Mesa de Diálogo sobre la Evolución de la Energía Nuclear en España.
4ª Sesión Temática. “La cobertura de la demanda energética en España y la energía
nuclear”
Ministerio de Industria, Turismo y Comercio. Madrid, 19-4-2004
Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily
stable - at around 20$/bl.
That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that
level.
The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be
around 60-70$/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between.
11-S Irak War
Ratio of Natural Gas Prices to Oil Price
IEA, WEO 2004
EL CÍRCULODEL
MERCADODEL
PETRÓLEO
Exploración
Producción
Transporte
.
Refineria"Stock" deproductos
Dem anda
Precio
Downstream and upstream problems
The visible part of the iceberg
Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, 1963-2002
World Energy Outlook 2004
Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002
Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002
A growing gap
AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per
year. By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is
yet to be built
World Energy Outlook 2004
Depletion: world gas-production capacity additions
7.3 trillion cubic metres of new gas-production capacity will be
needed over the next three decades (around 260 bcm a
year).
Less than a third of this new capacity will go to meet rising
demand.
IEA, WEO 2004
2000-2030: 3x1012 US $ (E & P 70%)105.000 x 106 per year / 287,7 x 106 per day
World Energy Outlook 2004
Cumulative investment in natural gas, 2003-2030
Cumulative investment needs for gas-supply infrastructure to 2030 will
amount to $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion per year from
now to 2030.
More than half will be for exploration and development of gas fields.
IEA, WEO 2004
Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d)
WEO 2004
“Choke points”
WEO 2004
Geopolitical uncertainties
Higher prices = more discoveries?
Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002
Reserves: IOC’s vs NOC’s
Chinese and Indian NOC’s
The submerged part of the iceberg “peak oil and gas”
Pessimists (“Hubbertites”)
ASPO 2004
Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate and Different Growth Rates (Decline R/P = 10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Bil
lio
n B
arr
els
pe
r Y
ea
r
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
DeclineR/P = 10
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
2050 @ 1% Growth
2037 @ 2% Growth
2030 @ 3% Growth
Optimists (“Cornucopias”)
Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery