1 EPOP Conference, Lancaster, September 2013 Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view Roger Mortimore, Simon Atkinson & Tom Mludzinski
Nov 29, 2014
1
EPOP Conference,
Lancaster,
September 2013
Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view
Roger Mortimore,
Simon Atkinson
& Tom Mludzinski
“I don’t know enough about him... He
doesn’t project an image of a leader”
- Focus group member
“It is all about someone you can relate
to, and this person is abnormal”
- Focus group member
5 In 1999 we tested Hague on achieving
seven short-term objectives
Restore Central Office morale and functionality
Reunite the party behind him as leader
Achieve personal public recognition
Develop image with the public as leader and potential PM
Re-establish credibility of party as an alternative government
Achieve success at elections 1999
Establish basis for further improvement by 2001
– Find and exploit government weaknesses
– Identify issues for general election campaign
1:
Restore morale and functionality of
party apparatus?
2:
Reunite the party behind him as
leader?
8
40%
52%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 312 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
More Labour supporters are dissatisfied than
satisfied with Ed
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
September 2013
Net = -12
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – September 2013
9
1
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as leader of the
Labour/Conservative Party?
Satisfaction with leaders of the opposition among
own supporters
HAGUE
BLAIR
MILIBAND
CAMERON
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Leader
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Duncan-Smith
The view
from
Westminster.
..
Q. Who in your
opinion is the
most
impressive
parliamentarian
of any party at
the moment?
Who else
springs to
mind?
Q. Who in your
opinion is the
most
impressive
parliamentarian
of any party at
the moment?
Who else
springs to
mind?
Conservative
MPs, 1999
69%
Base: c
. 40 C
onserv
ativ
e M
Ps S
ourc
e: M
OR
I surv
ey o
f Mem
bers
of P
arlia
ment, W
inte
r 1999
Q. Who in your
opinion is the
most
impressive
parliamentarian
of any party at
the moment?
Who else
springs to
mind?
Labour
MPs, 2013
16% 28%
Base: 4
9 L
abour M
Ps S
ourc
e: Ip
sos M
OR
I surv
ey o
f Mem
bers
of P
arlia
ment, S
um
mer 2
013
Reunite the party behind him as
leader?
3:
Achieve personal public recognition
16 % “don’t know” if satisfied or not after 3 years
Base: c. 1.000 GB adults in each survey Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
* September 2013
Achieve personal public recognition
4.
Develop image with public as leader
and potential PM?
19
24
26
28
15
13
24
23
18
6
8
8
8
20
21
20
26
30
16
17
30
7
4
4
3
I don't know what Nigel Faragestands for
I don't know what Nick Cleggstands for
I don't know what Ed Milibandstands for
I don't know what David Cameronstands for
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know
Half don’t know what he stands for
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013
33% 56%
51% 37%
50% 37%
37% 50%
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Low public satisfaction ratings…
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – September 2013 September 2013
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
24%
60%
15%
Net = -36
21
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
How does Ed match up to his predecessors?
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
22
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
How does Ed match up to his predecessors?
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
23
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
How does Ed match up to his predecessors?
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
24 Like him? Like his party?
Which of these statements come closest to your views of .. and the ... Party?
I like ... and I like the ...
Party
I do not like ... and I do not
like the ... Party
I like ...but I do not like
the ... Party
I do not like ... but I like
the ... Party
25 Like him? Like his party?
Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
27%
16%
11%
41%
5%
23%
7%
26%
37%
8%
I like ... and I like the ...
Party
I do not like ... and I do not
like the ... Party
I do not like ... but I like
the ... Party
I like ...but I do not like
the ... Party
Cameron/Conservative Miliband/Labour
26 Like him? Like his party?
Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
11%
41%
26%
37%
I like ... and I like the ...
Party
I do not like ... and I do not
like the ... Party
I do not like ... but I like
the ... Party
I like ...but I do not like
the ... Party
Do not like Cameron Do not like Miliband
52% 63%
27 Like him? Like his party?
Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
27%
16%
23%
7%
I like ... and I like the ...
Party
I do not like ... and I do not
like the ... Party
I do not like ... but I like
the ... Party
I like ...but I do not like
the ... Party
Like Cameron Like Miliband
43%
30%
28 Like him? Like his party?
Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
27%
16%
11%
41%
5%
23%
7%
26%
37%
8%
I like ... and I like the ...
Party
I do not like ... and I do not
like the ... Party
I do not like ... but I like
the ... Party
I like ...but I do not like
the ... Party
Cameron v Party Miliband v Party
+5 -19
29
40
36
62
50
56
51
54
30
24
39
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+, in each poll
Like him? Like him not? – Best and worst
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
John Major (Jan ‘97)
% Like % Do not like
Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party?
Ed Miliband (Aug ‘13)
Margaret Thatcher (Oct ‘85)
30 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Ed Miliband
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society more than others
31 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Ed Miliband
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society more than others
32 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Ed Miliband
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society more than others
33 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many
leadership qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
79%
50%
70%
52%
40%
53%
47%
40%
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
Miliband Cameron
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society more than others
34 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many
leadership qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
79%
50%
70%
52%
40%
53%
47%
40%
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
Miliband Cameron
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society more than others
35 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many
leadership qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
79%
50%
70%
52%
40%
53%
47%
40%
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
Miliband Cameron
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society more than others
36 Only one in four think he is ready to be PM
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
Ed Miliband is ready to be
Prime Minister?
Base: 499 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
37
8
16
6
24
42
5
Only one in four think he is ready to be PM
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
Ed Miliband is ready to be
Prime Minister?
24%
66%
Base: 499 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
38 Miliband less convincing than Blair and Cameron
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that Tony Blair/David Cameron/Ed Miliband is ready to be the next Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
59
43
24 28
43
66
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Blair December 1994
Cameron July 2008
Miliband April 2013
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Develop image with public as leader
and potential PM?
5:
Re-establish credibility of party as
an alternative government
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ju
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct-1
0
Nov-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Feb-1
1
Ma
r-11
Apr-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct-1
1
No
v-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Feb-1
2
Ma
r-12
Apr-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-13
Apr-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting intentions since 2010
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Avg. 7pt
Lab lead
May 2013 – Sep 2013
42
10
19
8
23
35
6
Three-fifths think Labour are not ready to govern
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
Labour is ready to form the next government?
29%
58%
Base: 499 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
43 Labour are behind previous “governments to be”
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
66
45
29 25
40
58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Labour December 1994
Conservatives July 2008
Labour April 2013
44 Labour are behind previous “governments to be”
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
66
45
31 29 25
40
57 58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Labour December 1994
Conservatives July 2008
Labour May 2011
Labour April 2013
Re-establish credibility of party as
an alternative government
6:
Achieve success at elections 2013
47 Success in 2013 local elections?
Source: BBC
Estimated national equivalent vote share
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
Local elections 2013
25%
29% 14%
23%
9%
48
40 38
40 39 38
32 34
38 39 36
33 35
46
31 28
25
29 31
33 34
38
32 34 35
37
33
39 40 43
35 37 38
33
25
42 41
29
36 37 39
37
32
38
42 44
38
30
39 40
47
43 44
37 36
30
41
33 30
26
36
26 26 24
22
30
37 39
29
13
17
27
20 21
26 26 27
18 19 17
22 20
25 27
23 24
17
25 25 26
18
25 27 27
23 25 24 23
25 24
16 15 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Local elections 1998-2013
% estimated national equivalent vote share
Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)
49
40 38
40 39 38
32 34
38 39 36
33 35
46
31 28
25
29 31
33 34
38
32 34 35
37
33
39 40 43
35 37 38
33
25
42 41
29
36 37 39
37
32
38
42 44
38
30
39 40
47
43 44
37 36
30
41
33 30
26
36
26 26 24
22
30
37 39
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Local elections 1998-2013
% estimated national equivalent vote share
Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)
50 Worst local election results are achieved by parties
in government
% estimated national equivalent vote share
Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)
40 38
40 39 38
32 34
38 39 36
33 35
46
31 28
25
29 31
33 34
38
32 34 35
37
33
39 40 43
35 37 38
33
25
42 41
29
36 37 39
37
32
38
42 44
38
30
39 40
47
43 44
37 36
30
41
33 30
26
36
26 26 24
22
30
37 39
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
51
% estimated national equivalent vote share
Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)
40 38
40 39 38
32 34
38 39 36
33 35
46
31 28
25
29 31
33 34
38
32 34 35
37
33
39 40 43
35 37 38
33
25
42 41
29
36 37 39
37
32
38
42 44
38
30
39 40
47
43 44
37 36
30
41
33 30
26
36
26 26 24
22
30
37 39
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2013 matched Labour’s worst local election share in
opposition for at least 40 years
52 But low vote share didn’t stop Labour making a
satisfactory gain of seats
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
-335
+291
-124
+139
Change2013
Source: BBC
+244
-291
-2
Change2009
Achieve success at elections
Establish basis for further improvement by
2015:
- Find and exploit government weaknesses
- Identify issues for general election campaign
56
39%
61%
No better than Cameron on Syria
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is handling the crisis in Syria?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,000 British adults 18-75, online, 30th August – 2nd September 2013
Ed Miliband David Cameron
36%
64%
57 Leaders on key issues
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to deal with...
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5%
5%
25%
5%
7%
17%
7%
10%
5%
12%
9%
6%
7%
6%
8%
9%
6%
5%
36%
35%
17%
31%
31%
22%
28%
20%
23%
21%
25%
28%
28%
29%
30%
32%
37%
37%
Social care for the elderly anddisabled
The NHS
Immigration
Pensions
Reducing unemployment
Europe
The benefits system
Crime and anti-socialbehaviour
Managing the economy Cameron
Miliband
Clegg
Farage
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013
58 Leaders on key issues
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to deal with...
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5%
5%
25%
5%
7%
17%
7%
10%
5%
12%
9%
6%
7%
6%
8%
9%
6%
5%
36%
35%
17%
31%
31%
22%
28%
20%
23%
21%
25%
28%
28%
29%
30%
32%
37%
37%
Social care for the elderly anddisabled
The NHS
Immigration
Pensions
Reducing unemployment
Europe
The benefits system
Crime and anti-socialbehaviour
Managing the economy Cameron
Miliband
Clegg
Farage
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013
59
5%
5%
25%
5%
7%
17%
7%
10%
5%
12%
9%
6%
7%
6%
8%
9%
6%
5%
36%
35%
17%
31%
31%
22%
28%
20%
23%
21%
25%
28%
28%
29%
30%
32%
37%
37%
Social care for the elderly anddisabled
The NHS
Immigration
Pensions
Reducing unemployment
Europe
The benefits system
Crime and anti-socialbehaviour
Managing the economy Cameron
Miliband
Clegg
Farage
Leaders on key issues
In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust
most to deal with...
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ma
r-90
Sep
-90
Ma
r-91
Sep
-91
Ma
r-92
Sep
-92
Ma
r-93
Sep
-93
Ma
r-94
Sep
-94
Ma
r-95
Sep
-95
Ma
r-96
Sep
-96
Ma
r-97
Sep
-97
Ma
r-98
Sep
-98
Ma
r-99
Sep
-99
Ma
r-00
Sep
-00
Ma
r-01
Sep
-01
Ma
r-02
Sep
-02
Ma
r-03
Sep
-03
Ma
r-04
Sep
-04
Ma
r-05
Sep
-05
Ma
r-06
Sep
-06
Ma
r-07
Sep
-07
Ma
r-08
Sep
-08
Ma
r-09
Sep
-09
Ma
r-10
Sep
-10
Ma
r-11
Sep
-11
Ma
r-12
Sep
-12
Ma
r-13
Labour has not re-established its lead on
economic credibility….
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
27% 26%
8%
61
26
23
21
21
4
31
29
18
10
5
The previous Labour government
Banks
The state of the global economy
The Coalition government
Local Councils
January 2013
March 2011
From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts to public services?
Labour still getting blame for cuts
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
62 Only 1 in 4 actually think they would do a better
job
Do you think that a Labour government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and Ed Balls as Chancellor of the Exchequer
would do a better or worse job, or about the same, than the present government has done at managing the economy?
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
26%
38%
31%
5%
Better job
Don’t know (+2)
Worse job
About the same
Net better = -5
63 Current voting intentions…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
September 2013
Labour lead over Conservative = +3
34%
37%
10%
11%
8%
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7-9 September 2013, all certain to vote = 545
Swing = +5%
On uniform swing:
62 Lab gains from
Con
(68 gains needed
for overall majority)
Establish basis for further improvement by
2015:
- Find and exploit government weaknesses
- Identify issues for general election campaign
Conclusion?
66
Morale/functionality of party apparatus
Reunite party behind him as leader
Achieve personal public recognition
Develop image as potential PM
Re-establish credibility of party
Achieve success at elections
Establish basis for further improvement
Miliband is a weak jockey on a poorly trained horse,
BUT (unlike Hague) the condition of the course is in
his favour and he has already jumped the first few
fences in the lead
68
Thank you