© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Francisco de la Chesnaye, Technical Executive John Bistline, Project Manager EIA Energy Conference June 15, 2015 Economy-wide Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
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© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Francisco de la Chesnaye, Technical Executive
John Bistline, Project Manager
EIA Energy Conference June 15, 2015
Economy-wide Greenhouse Gas
Mitigation
2 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
U.S. Intended nationally determined contribution to the UNFCCC
“Substantial global emission reductions are needed to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, and the 2025 target is consistent with a path to deep decarbonization.
“This target is consistent with a straight line emission reduction pathway from 2020 to deep, economy-wide emission reductions of 80% or more by 2050.”
3 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Economy-wide Greenhouse Gas Projections & Mitigation
4 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
U.S. Sectors, GHG Emissions, and Mitigation Goals
26% below 2005
2025
30% below 2005 Elec Sec
2050
80% below 2005
Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-‐2014
5 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Economy-wide emissions (reference) Economy-‐wide targets (rela4ve to 2005 levels) Net emissions with land sink Gross emissions
80%
26%
1.245
Results from EPRI’s
US-REGEN model
6 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Economy-wide emissions with 80% cap
Banking
All sectors, all GHGs (with banking and borrowing)
2025 abatement (~45%) exceeds INDC pledge to bank reductions, which avoids costly
abatement in later decades.
Results from EPRI’s
US-REGEN model
7 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
GHG emissions by sector (reference)
Results from EPRI’s
US-REGEN model
8 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
GHG emissions by sector (80% all GHG cap) All sectors, all GHGs (with banking and borrowing)
Significant and early abatement in the power sector and CH4, but more limited changes in
other sectors.
Results from EPRI’s
US-REGEN model
9 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electricity generation (80% all GHG cap)
Results from EPRI’s
US-REGEN model
10 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy demand by end-use sector (reference)
11 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy demand by end-use sector (80% cap)
12 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-Related Methane Emissions
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Methane emissions rates
! Uncertainty about upstream methane emissions associated with natural gas production
! Active area of research in peer-reviewed literature (Brandt, et al., 2014, EDF-sponsored papers)
! Implied leakage rates – 2015 EPA Inventory (based on 2013 data) =
1.44% – EPRI models = 1.4%
Source: EPA (2013) GHG Inventory
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Changes in EPA data & emissions rates
! EPA inventories for gas-related CH4 based on ~80 emissions factors from direct measurements made at ~200 sites in early 1990s; additional emissions/activity data supplied by the states and industry
! Lifecycle CH4 leakage rate from gas production implied by EPA approach ranged from 2.8% (2011 and 2012 NI releases) to as low as 1.4% (2013)
! U.S. natural gas system CH4 emissions for different releases of the U.S. EPA GHG National Inventory
Source: Moore, et al. (2014)
15 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Economy-wide natural gas consumption
Reference
100-‐Yr GWP 20-‐Yr GWP
80% Cap 20-‐Yr GWP, Leakage x2
100-‐Yr GWP, Leakage x2
16 © 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Economy-wide CH4 emissions
Reference
100-‐Yr GWP
20-‐Yr GWP 80% Cap
20-‐Yr GWP, Leakage x2
100-‐Yr GWP, Leakage x2
Reference, Leakage x2
© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
Francisco de la Chesnaye, Ph.D.
Technical Executive
Energy and Environmental Analysis Group
m: 202-230-2118; [email protected]
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