Economics 371 Economics 371 Labor Economics Labor Economics unemployment labor unions welfare programs education discrimination minimum wages income taxes diminishing returns monopsony occupational licensing job search
Dec 21, 2015
Economics 371Economics 371Economics 371Economics 371Labor EconomicsLabor Economics
unemployment
labor unions welfare programs
education
discrimination
minimum wages
income taxes
diminishing returns
monopsony
occupational licensing
job search
Course Essentials
• Course Web Page– www.marietta.edu/~delemeeg/econ37
1
• Grades– Exams (60%)– Homework (20%)– Policy/Market Brief (20%)
• Course Web Page– www.marietta.edu/~delemeeg/econ37
1
• Grades– Exams (60%)– Homework (20%)– Policy/Market Brief (20%)
Economic Way of Thinking Rationality Marginal analysis Scarcity Positive vs. normative analysis
Rationality Marginal analysis Scarcity Positive vs. normative analysis
Economic Models
Objectives Constraints Behavior
Labor Supply: Labor-Leisure Model
Time Allocation Decision:LeisureWork
Market work Household production
Human Capital Investment Formal education On-the-job training
Time Allocation Decision:LeisureWork
Market work Household production
Human Capital Investment Formal education On-the-job training
Total weekly hours = 168 = H + LTotal weekly hours = 168 = H + L
Objective: Utility maximization
maximize U = U( Y, L )
Leisure
Income
A B
C D
Preference Rankings: B A B D D C B C Possible that A D
Preference Rankings: B A B D D C B C Possible that A D
I
»≡
»»»
Average Actual
1. What is the current federal hourly minimum wage rate?
2. What is the average hourly wage rate in the US?
3. If your employer offers you a 10% increase in your hourly wage, how would your hours change?
4. Should the minimum wage rate be raised to $10 per hour?
5. Should labor unions be subject to the Sherman Act?
6. Should the US adopt a single-payer health system?
7. If a 10% payroll tax is imposed on employers, what will happen to employee wages?
$7.25$6.96
$11.30 $18. 46
Yes: 9%No: 91%
Yes: 52%No: 48%
Yes: 22%No: 78%
c or d: 65%
4%
Results of Survey
Indifference Curves
Locus of all bundles of (Y, L) that give the same utility Higher utility to the NE Negative slope Convex: diminishing MRS Can’t intersect
Locus of all bundles of (Y, L) that give the same utility Higher utility to the NE Negative slope Convex: diminishing MRS Can’t intersect
Leisure
Income
I2
I1
I3
L
YMRS
≡ measures willingness to sacrifice income for leisure
Indifference Curves
Which indifference curve represents a workaholic?
Leisure
Income
I1
Leisure
Income
I2
ΔL ΔL
ΔYΔY
MRS1 > MRS2
Budget Constraint
Define: 168 = L + H Y = wH + Nor
Y = w(168-L) + N
Where: w = wage rate L = leisure H = hours of work N = non-labor income Y = total income
Where: w = wage rate L = leisure H = hours of work N = non-labor income Y = total income
Leisure
Income
Example: w = $10 N = 0
Example: w = $10 N = 0
168
$1680 Slope = - w
ΔL
ΔY
Consumer OptimumMaximize U(Y,L) s.t. Y = wH + N
Leisure
Income
I1
L*
Y*
168
E
At point E: MRS = w
Slope of indifferencecurve
Slope of budgetconstraint
Corner Solutions
Reservation Wage: lowest wage at which one chooses to work
Reservation Wage: lowest wage at which one chooses to work
Leisure
Income
I1
168
I4
A
At point A: MRS > w
Choose more leisure
Impact of a Change in Non-Labor Income
Assume leisure is a normal good
As N ↑ H ↓
Assume leisure is a normal good
As N ↑ H ↓
Leisure
Income
I1
128
$400
168
Assume: w = $10 N = $200
I2
What happens to labor supply if you win the lottery?What happens to labor supply if you win the lottery?
0Y
H
Labor Supply and the Lottery
Source: Kimball, Miles S. and Matthew D. Shapiro. “Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?” Working Paper, May 16, 2003. Accessed online at www-personal.umich.edu/~mkimball/pdf/labor-16may2003.pdf.
Impact of a Change in Wages
Two possibilities: As w ↑ H ↑ As w ↑ H ↓
Two possibilities: As w ↑ H ↑ As w ↑ H ↓
Leisure
Income
128 168
What happens to labor supply if your wages rise?What happens to labor supply if your wages rise?
w
H
<
> 0 I1
I2
I2
Wage Change Decomposition
Change in wage has two opposing effects on labor supply: Substitution effect Income effect
Change in wage has two opposing effects on labor supply: Substitution effect Income effect
“incentive effect”
“lottery effect”
Y
h
w
h
w
H
TotalEffect
SubstitutionEffect
IncomeEffect
(+) (-)(?)
= +
Wage Change Decomposition
Leisure
Income
H1 168
I1
I2
H2H3
TE: H1 to H3
IE: H1 to H2
SE: H2 to H3
Example: Wage increase when SE > IEExample: Wage increase when SE > IE
Observed Change
Trick: create hypothetical budget line that is parallel to original budget line but tangent to new indifference curve
Trick: create hypothetical budget line that is parallel to original budget line but tangent to new indifference curve
Backward Bending Labor Supply Curve
Elasticity of Supply: Elasticity of Supply:
Labor (hours)
wage
w*
H*
Supply
IE > SE
SE > IEw
HE
%
%
Why the gender difference?Males: E ≈ - 0.10 to - 0.20Females: E ≈ +1.0Males: E ≈ - 0.10 to - 0.20Females: E ≈ +1.0
Premium Pay vs. Straight Pay FLSA (1938): “time-and-a-half”
for hours beyond 40 per week FLSA (1938): “time-and-a-half”
for hours beyond 40 per week
Leisure
Income
168128
I1
E1 I2
w =$10: worker chooses E1 and works H = 40
w =$15: worker relocates to E2 and works more than 40 hours
Suppose initial hours of work was H = 20. Would premium pay encourage more work effort?
Suppose initial hours of work was H = 20. Would premium pay encourage more work effort?
Problem Set 1: #10Problem Set 1: #10
E2
Income Tax
Flat tax Progressive tax Lump sum tax
Flat tax Progressive tax Lump sum tax
Leisure
Income
168
No tax: slope = -w
Flat tax: slope = -(1-t)w
What happens to labor supply under the flat tax compared to no tax?What happens to labor supply under the flat tax compared to no tax?
w1 = $10
t = 20%
w2 = (1- 0.2)10 = $8
Income Maintenance Programs
TANF Block grant Must work after 2 yrs 5 yr limit
SSI Medicaid Food Stamps EITC
TANF Block grant Must work after 2 yrs 5 yr limit
SSI Medicaid Food Stamps EITC
3 Basic Features Basic Benefit: B Benefit-Reduction Rate: t Break-even level of income: Yb
3 Basic Features Basic Benefit: B Benefit-Reduction Rate: t Break-even level of income: Yb
S = B - tY
Example: B = $3000 t = 0.50 Y = $5000
S = 3000 – (0.50)(5000) = $500
What is break-even level of income?What is break-even level of income?
Varies from $164 to $923 a monthVaries from $164 to $923 a month
Income Maintenance Programs
Policy Proposals: Raise B:
_________ labor supply ________ program costs
Lower t: _________ labor supply ________ program costs
Policy Proposals: Raise B:
_________ labor supply ________ program costs
Lower t: _________ labor supply ________ program costs
Policy Objectives __________________ __________________ __________________
Policy Objectives __________________ __________________ __________________
Leisure
Income
168
Yb
I1
I2
S = B - tY
H1
1990s economic boom Expansion of EITC Welfare reform Expansion of child care and
training programs
1990s economic boom Expansion of EITC Welfare reform Expansion of child care and
training programs
Fam
ilie
s (m
illi
on
s)
What caused the drop in caseloads?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Welfare Case Loads
Labor Force Participation RatesJuly 2009 (millions)
Population 235.9
Civilian Labor Force 154.5
Employment 140.0
Unemployment 14.5
Not in LF 81.4
65.5%235.9154.5
LFPR
LFPR = LF / Pop u = U / LF
9.4%154.514.5
u
Per
cen
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Male and Female LF Participation Rates: 1950-2008
Source: http://www.bls.gov/cps/tables.htm
Male
Female
All
Per
cen
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
20-24 25-54 55-64 65 and over
Male LFPR by Age
Per
cen
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
20-24 25-54 55-64 65 and over
Female LFPR by Age
Per
cen
t
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
White African-American
Male LFPR by Race
Per
cen
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
White African-American
Male LFPR by Race
Per
cen
t
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
White African-American
Female LFPR by Race
Secular Trends in LFPR Falling male LFPR
_____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________
Rising female LFPR _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________
Falling male LFPR _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________
Rising female LFPR _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________ _____________________________
Added worker effect Discouraged worker effect
Added worker effect Discouraged worker effect
Cyclical Trends in LFPR
LFPR is _____________
time
GDP
LFPR
Human Capital
Formal Education___________?___________?___________?
On-the-job Training
Formal Education___________?___________?___________?
On-the-job Training
In 1970, 36% of the labor force was a high school dropout. In 2002, it was 13%.In 1970, 36% of the labor force was a high school dropout. In 2002, it was 13%.
Age-Earnings Profiles for Males, 2005
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age
An
nu
al E
arn
ing
s
Based on Figure 4.1 in McConnell, Brue, and Macpherson (2006)
17 + years
16 years
12 years
< 12 years
Initial cost to be recouped over time
Human Capital Investment
age
HS
College$
______________
________________
_________________
18
HK Decision Rules Net Present Value: Go to college if __________ Net Present Value: Go to college if __________
nn
i
E
i
E
i
E
i
EENPV
)1()1()1()1( 33
221
0
Where: Ei = incremental earnings in year i i = interest rate n = expected working life
Where: Ei = incremental earnings in year i i = interest rate n = expected working life
• Because she can borrow the funds at an interest rate of 10%, wewill discount the future expected income at an 10% rate.
• What is the present value (PV) of this training program?
• The PV of the training program is positive, Melinda should take the training program.
• Suppose Melinda is considering taking a webmaster training program that involves direct costs of $3,000 and forgone earnings $5,000. The training program will increase Melinda’s earnings by $3,000, $4,000, and $5,000 for the 3 years she plans on working.
Present Valueof Earnings
(4)
Discounted Value(10 Percent Rate)
(3)Incremental
Earnings(2)
Year(1)
PV of $8,000 Investment in Webmaster Training Program
(Interest Rate = 10 Percent)
0 -$ 8,000 1.000 $ -8,000123
$ 3,000 $ 4,000 $ 5,000
0.9090.8260.751
$ 2,727$ 3,305$ 3,755
$ 1,787
HK Decision Rules Net Present Value: Go to college if NPV > 0 Net Present Value: Go to college if NPV > 0
nn
i
E
i
E
i
E
i
EENPV
)1()1()1()1( 33
221
0
Where: Ei = incremental earnings in year i i = interest rate n = expected working life
Where: Ei = incremental earnings in year i i = interest rate n = expected working life
Internal Rate of Return: Go to college if _______ Internal Rate of Return: Go to college if _______
Example: r = 12% i = 8%Example: r = 12% i = 8%
Human Capital Model Implications:
Time horizon Costs Earnings differential Discount rate
Empirical Evidence Rate-of-return studies: r ≈ _______________ College wage premiums
Implications: Time horizon Costs Earnings differential Discount rate
Empirical Evidence Rate-of-return studies: r ≈ _______________ College wage premiums
Cross Country Rates of Return 2003(in Percent)
16.7
14.3
12.1
10.7
10
8.9
8.3
0 5 10 15 20
Finland
United States
Norway
Belgium
Switzerland
Sweden
Denmark
Based on Example 4.2 in McConnell, Brue, and Macpherson (2006)
College Wage Premiums
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Rat
io
Based on Figure 4.3 in McConnell, Brue, and Macpherson (2006)
Female
Male
Social Rate of Return to HK External benefits
______________________ ______________________ ______________________ ______________________ ______________________
Biases: ______________________ ______________________
External benefits ______________________ ______________________ ______________________ ______________________ ______________________
Biases: ______________________ ______________________
Neglecting ability _________ gains due to education
Neglecting fringes/psychic benefits may _________ gains due to education
George Psacharaopoulos and Harry Patrinos, “Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2881, September 2002.
Share of Weekly Earnings of all Wage and Salary
Workers, 2003
Lowest Quintile 5.2%
Second Quintile 10.7%
Third Quintile 15.8%
Fourth Quintile 23.0%
Highest Quintile 45.3%
Source: Mayer, Gerald. “The Distribution of Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers in the United States, 1994-2003.” December 2004. Available at http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/194
Distribution of Earnings: HK explanation
Distribution of Earnings: HK explanation
Differences in HK investment __________________ __________________ __________________
Capital market imperfections __________________ __________________
Differences in HK investment __________________ __________________ __________________
Capital market imperfections __________________ __________________
DA
DB
education
r(%)
r1
r2
e1 e2
Demand: diminishing returns to educationSupply: perfectly elasticDemand: diminishing returns to educationSupply: perfectly elastic
Screening Hypothesis College degree as sorting device
Low-cost _________ device College ________ add to HK
Evidence “___________ effect”: rate of return on 12th and 16th year
of schooling are much higher than 11th and 15th years _____________ vs. salaried workers: SE have slightly less E
than salaried Wise (1975): GPAs and earnings of Ford workers are
____________ correlated
College degree as sorting device Low-cost _________ device College ________ add to HK
Evidence “___________ effect”: rate of return on 12th and 16th year
of schooling are much higher than 11th and 15th years _____________ vs. salaried workers: SE have slightly less E
than salaried Wise (1975): GPAs and earnings of Ford workers are
____________ correlated
Suggests that social rate of return is __________
Suggests that social rate of return is __________
On-the-Job Training
General training Raises productivity to _______ employers
Specific training Raises productivity to ________ employer
General training Raises productivity to _______ employers
Specific training Raises productivity to ________ employer
Who pays for OTJ?
Specific Training: MRPu < wp < MRPp
wt = MRPu
Employer pays for training; employeeis exploited after training
Specific Training: MRPu < wp < MRPp
wt = MRPu
Employer pays for training; employeeis exploited after training
On-the-Job Training
MRPt
MRPp
time
wu
t1
MRPU
MRPt = productivity during training
MRPp = productivity after training
MRPu = productivity without training
General Training: wp = MRPp
wt = MRPt
Employee pays thru low training wage
General Training: wp = MRPp
wt = MRPt
Employee pays thru low training wage
wp
$