Economic/Market Update – December 2012 Daryl Montgomery December11, 2012 Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Mar 27, 2015
Economic/Market Update – December 2012
Daryl MontgomeryDecember11, 2012
Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved
The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
This is the 5 Year Anniversary of the Beginning of the Recession
in 2007
News in June 2010 from the UK
News in Dec 2012 from the UK
“UK on triple-dip recession alert after industrial slowdown”
The View from the U.S.
How’s the Recovery Going?
• ECRI says U.S. recession began in July.
• EU officially entered recession in Nov.
• BOE says UK could be facing triple-dip recession.
• Japan sinks into yet another recession (announced yesterday). GDP down 3.5% in Q3.
• All these countries have 0% or close to 0% interest rates and have been printing money.
• China GDP at 7.4% (slows for 7th Quarter). India GDP growth lowest in 10 years.
U.S. Employment in the 2000s
The U.S. needed to create almost 9 million extra jobs since recession began, not even back to number at starting point. We are 12.5 million short.
Falling Labor Force Participation Rate
Right of green line is after recession began.
Food Stamp Use Hits Another Record
Central Bank Policies
• U.S. and Japan at 0% interest rates. Fed has said it would keep rates at 0% until 2015.
• UK at 0.50% and EU at 0.75%.
• All 4 engaging in some for of QE (Quantitative Easing), a form of money printing.
• U.S. QE3 has no time limit, no $ limit, no security type limit.
• Operation Twist may be ending.
• No more bullets in case of crisis.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Where’s the QE3?
U.S. Monetary Base – Measure of Future Inflation
M2 Money Supply
Inflation Expectations
European Debt Crisis• Greece gets another bailout. “We have settled
the Greece question”- Holland
• France is downgraded by Moody’s
• Monti resigns in Italy, Juncker resigns again.
• Spanish banks loaded up on gov’t debt. Spain has still not asked for bailout.
• Credit Suisse announces negative interest rates on interbank deposits.
• EU awarded Nobel Peace Prize!
How to Know if There’s a Depression
Background Material for Charts
• Moving Averages – 50-day, 200-day, 325-day or 10-week, 40-week, 65 week
• RSI – relative strength index, 80-overbought, 20 oversold, 50 divides bearish and bullish
• MACD – moving average convergence divergence, zero divide bullish bearish, peak and bottom numbers variable
• DMI – Directional Movement Index, +DI (blue), -DI (red) and trend line (black).
Follow us on Twitter
@nyinvesting
Major US Indices:
Dow Jones Industrials 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Dow Jones 5-Years Weekly Volume
Dow Jones Transports 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Nasdaq 3-Years Weekly
10, 40,65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
S&P 500 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Average and RSI, DMI, MACD
Russell 2000 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Precious Metals
GOLD ETF: GLD 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Silver ETF SLV 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Mining ETF GDX 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Mining ETF GDXJ 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Other Commodities
WTI Crude Oil One-Year Daily
Uranium CA:U 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Solar ETF TAN 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Agriculture ETF RJA 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Copper ETF JJC 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Emerging Markets
Brazil Bovespa 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
India Sensex 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Shanghai Composite 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Russia RTS 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Bonds and Currencies
30-Year Treasury Yield 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
10-Year Treasury Yield 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
U.S. $ DXY 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXE 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXF 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXA 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Euro FXC 3-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD