ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IS GROWTH BACK? Dr. Michael Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1
Jan 19, 2016
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: IS GROWTH BACK?
Dr. Michael WaldenReynolds Distinguished ProfessorNorth Carolina State University
1
Nation’s Economic Report Card: Real GDP (annualized % change in real GDP)
2
MEANING OF “END TO THE RECESSION”
3
Job Growth Has Turned Positive
4
BUT THE JOB RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW (NONFARM EMP AND UNEMP RATE)
5
CONSUMER WEALTH AND INCOME HAVE REBOUNDED (billions of 2005 $)
6
CONSUMER FINANCIAL BEHAVIOR HAS DRAMATICALLY CHANGED (INDICES)
7
BUT CONSUMER SPENDING AT RETAIL STORES IS INCREASING (billions of 2005 $, seasonally-adjusted, excl. vehicles & parts)
8
CORPORATE PROFITABILITY HAS ALSO IMPROVED (PRE-TAX, % OF GDP)
9
HOUSING MARKET HAS NOT IMPROVED CONSISTENTLY
10
HAVE HOUSING PRICES STOPPED FALLING?
(ANNUALIZED % CHANGE)
11
INFLATION IS CURRENTLY NOT A PROBLEM (CPI, total and core)
12
ARE INTEREST RATES POISED TO RISE? (YIELDS ON TRESURY SECURITIES)
13
GOVERNMENT POLICY
14
The Fed’s Monetary Policy
15
FISCAL POLICY – RISING DEBT
16
Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are Driving Federal Spending
17
NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIY
18
NC JOBS HAVE BEGUN TO COME BACK
19
N.C. Major Sector Job Changes ( thousands, manuf and prof. serv on left, const and fin. on right)
20
160210260310360410460510560610
420440460480500520540
Manuf Prof Serv. Const Hlth/Edu
Unemployment Rate Forecasts
21
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
%US
NC
Goldsboro Metro Job Market Trends (Index, December 2007 = 100, seas. adj.)
22
0.870.890.910.930.950.970.991.011.03
Goldsboro and N.C.: May Unemployment Rate (seasonally unadjusted)
23
WRAP UP: WHAT’S AHEAD?
No “double dip”, but slow growth
Household debt reduction is the key
Keen competition for growth – NC well positioned
24